Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It's be Joey pa joe Piza, Piere. It's time to look ahead to week sixteen in the NFL, and I'm glad. I'm very glad because Week fifteen was brutal. I hated it. I took so many l's I can't even stand up. But thank god Cooper Cupp kind of saved my day a little bit, little ladder bet. Other than that, I don't want to see week fifteen, in the words of Kevin McAllister, my whole life. That's right.
I don't want to see any of you jerks again. But these two jerks I love, Pat fitz Morris, Sam Hoppin. They're not jerks, they're great people. They're gonna help us through. Take a look at the week ahead. We've got Thursday action, Saturday action, Sunday action, Monday action, you name it, we've got the action for you. And of course we're gonna go through all of them here and try to give you our early take on some of the games. And of course, if you want to win some free stuff,
drop your comments below. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. He just might win a one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros, the best betting tools on the planet to help you get all of the best bets at the right time. Make sure you download the Betting Pros app too, and you might get three free days of premium if
you're iOS member right now. So go ahead and get that bad boy in and don't forget also to tune into our Fast Break Bets NBA show every single Wednesday and Friday at eleven am Eastern, where Matt Mody is taking through the best in the NBA again Wednesdays Fridays eleven am Eastern. Join the chat right here on our YouTube channel. Gentlemen, I don't want to talk about Week fifteen. It's over. It's done pretty much. I got one more game left, hopefully that will kill me. We'll see. But
let's look ahead. Let's take a look, and let's start here with basically is a playoff game here, pat We've got the Los Angeles Rams seven and seven taking on the New Orleans Saints. This one's in LA. The Rams are four point favorites. That feels right to me. Forty four and a half is the number that feels right to me. At minus one ten. The best number you can get right now for New Orleans is plus one seventy five. Pat. You know, the Rams a good road
almost victory against the Ravens. They fell a little short and no tee. Last week they looked good, but again kind of took their foot off the gas, which worries me a little bit. New Orleans coming off of big win. They are right in the thick of this playoff, so are the Rams. What do you make of this line here, any early value at all on Thursday night? Yeah?
I like the Rams, Joe. They just have a much better offense than the Saints. They can move it through the air with Matthew Stafford throwing the Cooper Cup and Pooka Nakua, and they can move it on the ground with Kyron Williams.
The Saints just the Saints have struggled in the red zone.
And the Saints have also not been a very good team against the spread this year. They are four nine and one against the number, whereas the Rams are eight five and one against the number, So they have been a good spread team.
I think there's a little bit of value on the Rams here.
It does feel like a little bit also that balance attack Sam of the Rams I think is really coming along nicely. Cooper Cup's health starting to improve. I think in the last couple of weeks that's been a huge positive. Matthew Stafford's looked very sharp. But Kien Williams running the football in the last month or so has been really I think the difference maker of this Rams offense looking as good as it has and also getting back into this playoff picture. So do you see value on the
Rams still at four? Is that our too much for you?
I do? I made this Rams by five and a half, I think again. Sean McVay has this Rams offense clicking on all cylinders. The Saints pass defense has been pretty solid so far this year, at least over the past several weeks, but the only competent passing game that they've played has been Detroit in the last month. But New Orleans rushing defense has been getting worse and worse. Los Angeles continues to want to run the ball, like you said with Kyron Williams, so I don't think he'll have
any issue diicing up this Saints front seven. So I like the Rams a ton here.
All right, let's take a look at Saturday's first contest at four thirty, you got Pittsburgh hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. Now the Bengals are road two and a half favorites, despite the fact that you know, again no Joe Burrowy got Jake Browning playing, but Browning's played relatively well. Here Jamar Chase's shoulder in question right now as we're recording this, we don't have a lot of definitive evidence if he's
going to play or not yet. Too early thirty eight and a half is the nine Pittsburgh at plus one eighteen, Sam, somehow the Pittsburgh Steelers fired Matt Cannon and the offense got worse. It feels like, I don't know how that's possible. I understand Getty Pickott getting hurt probably, you know, did
not help that cause. But you know, it's really tough here to look at the Cincinnati Bengals in their circumstance being road favors, but at the same time at Pittsburgh feels right because Pittsburgh has been unable to handle their business. So is this just the right call here? And if so, do you feel good about investing in the Bengals?
I do.
If I were to take a side. I picked the Bengals. I mean, Jake Browning continues to prove all the haters wrong. You know, looked a little out of sorts in the first half against Minnesota this past weekend, but then really turned it on in the second half against a Brian Flores defense that has been playing exceptionally well this year. The Jamar Chase injury does concern me a little bit because Browning has thrived off of Yak in terms of his production, and Jamar check Chase offers a lot of that.
But that said, the Pittsburgh defense just got diced apart by Gardner Minshew with someone named DJ Montgomery as his wide receiver won for most of the game. Cincinnati also lost Dj Reader in this game this past weekend, which is a huge blow to their defense. But I think, you know, Cincinnati is just a slight tier above Pittsburgh at this point.
Your thoughts here, pat because again the you know Pittsburgh Steelers, you know, the great coach. Theoretically, that home field advantage it seems to have dissipated. They lost back to back games at home to the Arizona Cardinals and then to the New England Patriots. So you know, I think we've got to change our mindset. There's value on the Steelers if you want to go take them on the money line, but not that much at plus one eighteen. So I
don't know. It just feels like the Bengals, and that's boring, but it feels right.
Yeah.
Can you imagine, Joe if someone had told you back in August that the Bengals were going to lose Joe Burrow to a season and injury and they would go into Pittsburgh in Week sixteen and be favored by two points. That just seems kind of unfathomable. But I get it because the Steelers offense look completely broken. Against the Colts
in Week fifteen. They averaged four yards per play. Pittsburgh was penalized eight times for one hundred and one yards, so they had more penalty yardage than they had rushing yardage seventy four yards on the ground. This just seems like a team that's falling apart. The Steelers beat the Bengals sixteen to ten in Week twelve in Cincinnati, so maybe that gives the Bengals a little extra motivation. I
do like the Bengals. I don't know if I'm going to bet it yet, because what scares me is that we have seen the Steelers get outplayed and outgained on a bunch of occasions this season, only for them to win the game. Now, it hasn't happened lately, like the luck is caught up with them lately. But so yeah, like in the pools where I have to make a pick, I'm going to take the Bengals, but I'm not quite sure there's enough value to bet the Bengals.
Yeah, I think you might go some individual props in this game instead. Speaking of an after though, I'll go.
Ahead and real quick before we move on. Actually, just got a notification that Mason Rudolph is going to be starting for Pittsburgh on Saturday, and so I think that probably moves the line in favor of the Bengals a little bit, not much. I don't know if it crosses three.
But yeah, we're getting Rudolf for Christmas to guide the Steelers offense with his nose so bright it's perfect.
That's why you download my playbook too. Make sure you stay on top of all this news as it breaks. The Chargers are at home. They're taking on the Buffalo Bills. Coming off a huge victory, Buffalo looking like they're starting to figure it out. Joe Brady Cohen plays balancing the offense, getting James Cook the football. What a concept. They are now eight and six. The excuse me, the Chargers are five and nine. This is a twelve and a half point spread here where the Buffalo Bills are favored by
twelve and a half on the road. Forty two and a half is the number plus five twenty five a huge number here for the upset of by the Chargers. We're gonna get East and stick. We don't know if we're gonna be a Keenan Allen. It's a big number here, but after that dominant performance, it feels like pat the Buffalo Bills are back on track. Is twelve and a half comfortable enough for you to still invest in Buffalo?
Oh boy, people have been gobbling up the Bills, Joe, Because I just checked DraftKings.
It's fourteen right now.
Moved again And it is.
Like policy that I do not lay that many points in an NFL game.
But like, I don't know how anyone could.
Possibly bet the Chargers after what we saw against the Raiders, Like, does anyone really think that the Chargers are gonna circle the wagons for Brandon Staley like that looked like a team that was waving.
The white flag last Thursday night.
So the Bills, after beating the Cowboys, they now have this reasonable path to the playoffs and they can't afford to slip up here. Hard to imagine them letting their guard down for this one. If I'm gonna bet it, I'm gonna bet the Bills. I just don't know if I can lay fourteen points in an NFL game. It never feels comfortable.
We see that head coach bounce when they get fired quite a bit, but so far in Carolina we didn't see it, and Sam, this doesn't feel like another time we're going to see it either.
No, the Bills are quite possibly the best team in the AFC, and with the quarterback that the Chargers have now quite possibly the worst team in the AFC, fourteen points is a lot, but that's I mean, they should have no issue with that. I do think if you do want to invest in the Bills and it don't want to do it on the spread. Josh Allen MVP at fourteen to one right now. I mean, I know everyone sort of thinks that Rock Party has locked it up right now, but they still San Francisco still has
a couple of tough games to end the season. The Buffalo Bills could win out and take over the division lead by the end of the season. So I mean he's playing exceptionally well. I think voters might look for reasons not to vote for Purty given all the supporting cast and everything like that. So I think MVP right now, Josh Allen is probably the best value on the board.
Certainly an interesting one. A lot of quarterback chaos potentially in this next matchup. We don't know if Gino's going to play tonight yet game time decision. We don't know how he's going to make it through that game. If he does play, then Will Levis is going for an MRI on his ankle. So the Tennessee Titans are at home in Week sixteen, two and a half point underdogs at home Seattle two and a half point favorites. You're getting forty two and a half is the number plus
one twenty on Tennessee. My early lean here Sam is Tennessee because that pivot point to quarterback. I feel much better about Tannehill than I do about Drew Locke, and again Tennessee is at home, So to me, I think this is actually an interesting game to kind of jump on early before you get some more potential news that could change this one a little bit. What are your thoughts on this game here at Tennessee Titans in the Seattle Seahawks.
Yeah, this one was a tough one to get a grasp on given the quarterback uncertainty. I agree that Will Levis to Ryan Tannehill isn't really much of a change. I do think the under for this game is in play. Both neither of these teams play particularly fast. They've shown that their offenses can sputter at times. The defenses aren't great,
so that's probably the one concern. But I just I don't really have an early lean on a side for this right now and think this could be just an ugly game from two offenses that have struggled.
Pack Can you make any money on the ugly?
We've got the West Coast team going to the Eastern time zone for an early afternoon game, so like that's the formula and I'm not going to bet the Seahawks. It's just a matter of whether I want to bet the Titans. I don't think they are going to quit on Mike Vrabel, even though they've been eliminated from the playoffs officially. But with Will Levis getting hurt, we're gonna get a rusty Ryan Tannehill most likely at quarterback. I kind of agree with you, Joe. If I'm gonna bet it,
I'm gonna bet the Titans. But right now I'm leaning towards just walking away.
From this one.
All right, Garner Minshak going off a great game is going to take the Colts into Atlanta. This one's in Atlanta. Atlanta is two point underdogs at home. Forty four and a half is the number for this game. You get Indian at minus one thirty Atlanta plus one ten fits. Look, this is a huge game for the Colts. Atlanta is hanging on by a thread here, still relevant, but still, I mean, they have got to come up with a big victory. I know Ritters played better at home than
he's played on the road. It was a disasterately loss of the Panthers. This is a dangerous game for many many reasons, just looking at the quarterbacks, looking at the trend lines, all these things. So that being said, taking all that danger into account. You see any early value in Atlanta, Indy.
I do. I like the Colts.
The Falcons are four and ten against the spread this year, like they have been a terrible spread team, and they have to be reeling emotionally after losing a game to the Panthers that really damaged their playoff hopes. They needed that one badly. Also, Arthur Smith, Joe good Lord. The Falcons ran fifty one offensive plays yesterday and Bijon Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts either touch the ball or were intended targets on seventeen of those fifty one plays.
So you've got three early first round draft picks selected to power the engines of your offense, three of them, and they're only being, you know, getting opportunities on one third of your offensive snaps. I know this is a betting show, not a fantasy show, but Arthur Smith is not someone in whom I want to invest my money, and in fact, I'm very happy to be against him.
All right, Sam, are you happy to bet against Arthur Smith and the Falcons as well?
Yep? It's it's death taxes and Shane Stiken being a coaching mismatch this week against Arthur Smith. To Pat's point, Michael Pittman in the concussion protocol, but they'll have the extra day given they played on Saturday and then play the following Sunday. Stiken also said that there is a chance they get Jonathan Taylor back in this game as well, which would be huge if if Zach Moss is out as well. The Falcons just couldn't do anything against the Panthers.
And I know it was rainy and that game was gross, but rain typically helps the offense. And Desmond Ritter just had another terrible interception in opponent territory. They can't really do anything there. I continue to think that the Colts are they are to an extent over you know, playing their their talent and to a point, but they're doing so and stacking up these wins. So I love the excuse me the Colts in this situation.
All right, let's move on to the next game. Here on our Slaves, we continue to break down Week sixteen in the NFL here on BP Cleveland and Houston. Now, hopefully you get CJ. Stroud back in this game. Cleveland is nine and five. Sam, I know you love Cleveland. I know you love that bet that we were talking about not that long ago. They found a way somehow to hang on to that victory at home against Chicago yesterday. Houston case Keenum, Well, it's okay. We're still gonna be
winning football games no matter who they lose. It's amazing Houston Texans figure it out. Dimiico Ryan is just a terrific job with that team. Houston at home minus two and a half. Forty two and a half is the number plus one fifteen on the money line for Cleveland. So that being said, do you have any early leans on this game because this one is another one that
has huge playoff implication. Sam, Houston's at home, but we've seen Houston in recent weeks also when the better competition comes to town, they haven't looked quite as good.
Yeah. I went back and forth on this one a couple of times when when prepping this morning. I do think CJ. Stroud is back in this game. Nico Collins availability is another big factor in this, but it is many as many passing yards as Joe Flacco is throwing four I think it's making it seem like he's playing better than he actually has since he's joined the Browns. Among forty eight quarterbacks with at least seventy five dropbacks.
He ranks forty third in EPA per play, forty first in success rate, forty third in CPOE, and thirtieth in PFF passing great, So he's not really playing that well. The Browns have come away with some wins, and the Houston rushing defense has allowed a success rate over thirty four percents just once in their last five games. They stuffed Derrick Henry this past week. So this is a game that I think that line of two and a
half is right about on. And certainly, if I'm betting the Texans want to wait until we know more about CJ.
Stroud's health, pat I want to bet the Browns. I think there's something against theefanski another side of the coach. There's done a terrific job here with this team defense travels. We've seen that with Cleveland before. I think despite some of the injuries and the issues they've had, Flacco found a way to make some plays. I feel like the Browns feel like they've got a little bit of magic, which is not something that the Cleveland fans are used to seeing, but it feels that way and to me.
This is that statement game here where if you're Cleveland and you're for real go in, you beat a young Texans scene that's still very wet behind the ears and plus one fifteen on the money line. I think that's where the value is. And maybe to Sam's point, if I like Cleveland, maybe I wait because if CJ. Stroud is announcing this game, maybe that number changes a little bit more and I even get something better than the one to fifteen.
Yeah, it's not a bad premise. Joe bet the team with the better defense in mid December late December, so like I get that, and we've seen Joe Flacco, Like, get this offense moving.
He is capable of moving it.
I mean he's averaging three hundred and thirteen passing yards in his three starts. Unfortunately, Joe Flacco has also thrown five interceptions in his three starts. And that's the thing with Flacco, Like I'm kind of not eager to bet a game with Joe Flacco because he is such a wild card and he can just hand the other team
the game with his turnovers. But like he can also I mean, if you get the combination of this Brown's defense banged up as it may be playing like the Browns defense and Joe Flacco clicking like they could they could, even though this Houston team is overachieved all year, like they could blow Houston out of the water, Like I think the Browns have that sort of top end potential. But right now, I mean, I just have no feel for this one, Joe. I don't think I'm gonna play it.
Yeah, no, I totally understand. I mean, these are two teams that have show you high points and low points, which always makes it tough. And again, looking in the road, I'm looking at value. To me, if this game is a coin flip, it's the value of the plus money in Cleveland in the defense in December, as you point out, but we'll see. I love CJ. Stroud, nobody loves Stroud more than me. I just feel like Cleveland right now is the side that I'm on to this one now.
I waited as long as I could because I know yesterday was not a happy day for Packers fans. So we're finally gonna get to the Packers here. I waited let you guys get loose a little bit in the bullpen before we put you on the mound. Green by Packers six and eight going to Carolina two and twelve. Carolina coming off of victory. Cremay coming off a loss, would have thought that the Packers are four and a half point favorites. Minus one ten thirty six is the
consensus number right now on betting pros. Minus two twenty five for green Bay on the money line, plus one eighty for Carolina. Pat get right game for the pack You feel good about this one here?
Oh goodness, what a difference a week makes? Show?
Uh seven days and on this show a week ago, Sam and I were full of holiday cheer, the Packers at the inside track for a playoff spot, and they have complete fallen on their faces with losses to the Giants and Buccaneers. Joe, if we stay on this game too long, Sam and I are going to start ranting about how bad Packers defensive coordinated.
Joe, Barry, We'll get out.
I don't want to depress everybody, Yeah, I mean, look like I don't want to bring you down this holiday season.
Suffice it to say that Baker Mayfield just posted the only perfect passer rating a visiting quarterback has ever posted at lambeau Field and PFF just gave the Packers the worst pass coverage grade of any team in any game over the last five NFL season. So yeah, I mean not feeling totally great about this team right now. I don't like either side. I'm thinking of betting the over in part because of my lack of confidence in Joe
Berry and the Green Bay defense. So yeah, just move on from me, please, Joe.
Sam pat has asked me to push the ball into your side of the court, so the floor is yours. Look it's Carolina. I know they came out with a victory, but let's not go crazy here, hackers. Get right, Yes, come on, boys, let's get let's let's let's get that cheese head back on. Come on.
Yeah, I mean, I think the Packers will win, but I'm not confident enough to take them on the road against the spread. They've allowed six I don't even need to say all these stats that tell how bad the Packers defense has been the last couple of weeks. Here, here's the crezy. Here's the one of the worst ones. The Buccaneers had a point seventy two ep a per play on pass attempts, so every four pass attempts they're expected to score about three points. I mean, it was
it was so bad. And I understand you. You traded away Rustull Douglas, you don't have Gyr Alexander, but something's gotta change and you can't just be sitting back playing soft zone defense and expect things to happen. Uh. And I think Bryce Young made some decent passes this past weekend. He certainly certainly is showing more lately that he can scramble get out of the pocket, and Green Bay has
struggled with that as well the past several weeks. So again, I think Green Bay wins the game, but I'm not confident to take the four points there.
Okay, all right, that's it for the depressing part of the show. We're going to get happy again. The New York Jets. They're eliminated from the playoffs. They're at home against the Washington Commanders. The Jets are five and nine, the Commanders are four and ten. The Jets are three point favorites now after getting shut out by the Miami Dolphins. Zach Wilson went from player of the week to pariah
of the week. And Aaron Rodgers wants to get cleared from practice, but I don't know if it matters now if he still wants to come back, does he want to prove a point and push the envelope? Who knows thirty eight is the number plus one thirty five on the Washington side. That's where I want to live on this one, the plus one thirty five on the Washington side. Sam, what do you think you're getting crazy with me with the Washington Commanders or why?
I mean, I don't even think it's getting that crazy. I don't know who's playing quarterback for the Jets. I think Zach Wilson probably gives them the best chance to win, but he suffered a concussion yesterday Washington, I don't think if I remember correctly, Sam Howell getting benched wasn't because of injury. It seemed like they were just sort of out of the game and Ron Rivera made the switch
to Jacoby Brissette. Honestly, if they played Brissett and start him, I think the Commanders should possibly be favored in this game. I mean, I don't think they will be because the Jets defense still is a strong unit and Washington's.
Is not at all.
But Jacoby Brissett looked really competent in the couple of drives he had again quarterback yeah, which is again something a lot of teams could could use these days, especially the New York Jets. So I like the Commanders on the money line again, I think with how variable that offense can be, potentially taking on them on some alternate spreads as well.
All right, Pat Jets Commanders thoughts.
I'm fascinated to see the matchup between the Jets offense and the Commander's defense, Like that's going to be a slow motion train wreck that you just can't look away from. Joe, I don't want to take a side in what to me looks like a really unpredictable game between two bad teams. But I have already bet the under in this game
under thirty eight. The Washington offense has kind of been struggling lately, Like the Commanders have scored twenty points or fewer and four straight games that includes games against the Giants in the RAMS, So it's not like it's just they're running into great defenses that.
Are stopping them.
The Commanders throw the ball at a higher rate than anyone else in the league, and although the Jets are bad, the one thing they do do very well is shut down opponents passing games except for this week against the Dolphins.
Meanwhile, the Jets, Jets offenses have quit the Jets maybe they have, maybe they have.
You saw I think you saw that third quarter, fourth quarter in that game is like, Okay, you know we're out of it. This is it, This was our moment, this was everything was riding on this pat I know, maybe Rogers comes back, we stay relevant, we win in division game as a huge win against the Miami Dolphins. That going to Miami do that. You had the momentum of the previous week with a huge win and it all just fell apart and all just disintegrated. And I think that takes toll mentally on a team.
I don't know if Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett are dicing up even a disinterested Jets defense.
Though Joe and.
Like Terry McLaurin, had some moments in that game yesterday. You reminded everybody how spectacular of Talenty is.
The sideline catch that got disallowed was one of the craziest catches you're ever gonna see. But meanwhile, like the Jets offense is so bad, I don't like I think they are capable of making the Commander's defense look good. So I do not see this game getting to thirty eight points. To me, that's one of the better bets of the week.
Oh I like that.
Get it now. It's gonna come down, so get it now at thirty eight.
Good good call there. By the way, the next game as a pretty big number forty seven for Minnesota Detroit. This one's in Minnesota. The Troit is three point favorites on the road plus one forty on the Minnesota side for the upset. I got Nick Mullins's past week. I assume that's what we're gonna get again. Detroit at ten to four. Big victory for them. Your thoughts here, does the gravy train keep rolling into the Detroit Lions back
on track here or to the Minnesota Vikings. There were a little little hiccup in things here for the Detroit Lions.
Yeah, I mean, I think everyone's first instinct is going to be to take the Lions after their nationally televised paddling of the Broncos on Saturday night, and after, for that matter, after the Vikings nationally televised meltown against the Bengals on Saturday afternoon.
I'm not quite.
Ready to believe that all as well with the Lions, though Joe like that went over the Broncos. Before that, the Lions had not beaten anyone convincingly in a long time. They had bad losses to the Packers. They squeaked out wins over the Saints, the Bears, the Chargers. So does one game and we know when the Lions are clicking on offensively on offense, as they were Saturday night against the Broncos, it's like they can look so impressive. But we hadn't really seen that for a while. Like Jared
Goff had not been playing particularly well. So the Lions are a better team than the Vikings. But I'm not betting this game. I just don't think there's enough value to pull me over to the Lion's side.
Sam, is there any value on this game or particularly in the forty seven?
I think there's a little bit of value on the Lions. This is the first of two matchups we get in the final three weeks of the season. Between these two games, the Vikings, as we know, love to blitz and Jared Goff has struggled against the Blitzy has a sixty point two PFF grade, which is twenty ninth among qualifying quarterbacks. But the current way to attack sort of defense right now is by running the ball. I think that's how
Detroit attacks that. Even though they had a positive password over expectation for the first time since Week seven this past week. But Jamira Gibbs looks phenomenal right now. He is explosive, and I think the Viking, excuse me, the Lions are back on track. I mean, yes, it had been a while since this Lions offense had clicked, but they did it against a Broncos defense that had been stifling opposing offense for the last month and a half or two months. So I'm excited. I think the Lions
hold a little bit of value. This is indoors still, so it's not in away game outside for for Jared Goffin, I think Detroit is going to show once again that they're part of the class of the NFC.
Tampa Bay is at seven and seven. They were at home one point underdogs at home home to the Jacksonville Jaguars, coming off another tough loss there for them. Jaguars just seeming like a team that just needs a couple more pieces, some offensive line pieces. Maybe next year, maybe they're ready to take that leap, but they're very frustrating team from I think a wagering standpoint forty three and a half is the number minus one ten you can get on either side of this game here right now on the
money line, and that's kind of where I'm living. It feels, I mean, Vegas is telling you it to pick him. Here's Sam So basically, do you want to take Tampa at home, who is sort of gaining a little momentum, or a team in Jacksonville that continues to It feels like Jacksonville just spins its wheels a little bit, and maybe Lawrence's health is a big part of that as well some of the other injuries that they've had on offense. What do you think here about this one here Jacksonville
going to Tampa. Is this is a spot where Tampa really should be the favorite.
Well, it went a little under the radar last night, but Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol as of Monday morning, which again like there wasn't any real I don't think he left the game at all last night. But they also lost Say Jones to a hamstring injury that I would expect will keep him out of this game. So it's down to Calvin Ridley and Evan Ingram. And like the depth that they have at receiver Jamal swagnuw
with a great long touchdown catch this past week. But I don't want to touch this game until we know more about Trevor Lawrence and whether he's going to play.
Pat I'm into this one. I'm buying the Bucks at home.
What do you think I bet the Buccaneers today get and I got two and a half points on DraftKings Joe, and because this game did strike me as a game that should be a pick them, Like, I feel like the Buccaneers are basically a league average team, and the way the Jaguars have played lately, I don't think they've been much better than a league average team. So you're throwing the injuries that Sam mangined with the you know, the wide receiver shortage they have right now, and Trevor Lawrence.
I mean, I think Laura and So will probably play, but if he doesn't, oh boy, I mean what a value? So yeah, like I do think this should be a pick. I mean, if you're getting points with the Buccaneers taking the points or betting the money line makes sense to me.
All right, let's continue on here. We've got a lot of games to get to Arizona Chicago. The Bears were in this one of the Bears defense played very well. The Arizona Cardinals defense was a joke. There were guys so wide open, unbelievable, you know, over twelve yards sometimes some of these guys, either we Caffrey or Deebo were
open in this game. It was stunning. The Bears are four and a half point favorites against the Cardinals and this one forty four and a half is the number plus one eighty on the money line for the Cardinals. It's weird to feel comfortable with Chicago being favored by four and a half points, but Pat, I feel comfortable that Arizona's not going to go into Chicago and December and win this football game or get closer with the
way that defense played. Plus, you know, Kyler Murray got kind of rocked in that game a little bit too. I don't know, I'm just I though. The Bears are far from perfect, but the Bears have been very competitive, and I think this is finally a matchup that almost goes their way in terms of the you're finally getting a cookie, and I think they've been desperate for this kind of matchup and I think they're getting one here. What do you think?
Yeah, I mean you said it, Joe laying the four points with a Chicago Bears team that like and this was the difference between a winning week for me and a juice losing week, Joe. The Bears inability to close a win they should have had against the Browns. I think that's the only thing that gives you pause. The Bears are clearly the better team here. Their defense has
played really well of late. They can move the ball with justin fields, and you pointed out some of the flaws the Cardinals have, So yeah, like, I do think there's value in the Bears. We also talked about how with a warm weather team going up to a place like Soldier Field in Chicago in late December, mid December, home field might be worth more than two points, and I think that could be the case here. So yes,
I like the Bears. I also think the under might be a pretty good play here because of how good the Bears defense is. And you know, the Bears themselves are only averaging nineteen point two points over their last five games. So for the over to land here, both teams would have to click on offense to some degree, and it's kind of hard to see that happening, especially in a game where weather could potentially be a factor.
Sam, what do you think, Chicago, Arizona? You think that four and a half a save?
No? I don't. I don't really like either side in this one. Looking at the forecast for Chicago, looks like it's going to be a bone chilling forty seven degrees for some December Chicago weather. So I don't think the weather impacts things that much.
I think for the Arizona folks, yeah, that is very true.
But I think what's driving this total up is just we have two exciting, elusive quarterbacks who can make things happen on the ground. But to Pat's point, this Bears defense continues to impress. The Cardinals offense at times looked like he had some spunk against the forty nine ers, But excuse me, Kyler Murray, with him getting banged up, I think the under is the right play in that game.
All right, This is a fun one here Christmas Eve for twenty five Eastern Dallas Miami. Both teams are ten and four. Miami at home is a one and a half point favorite right now with the consensus betting pros line, fifty one is the number for this game Dallas plus one oh five. So look, we got the answer to the question. Is dak ready to take that step forward and all of a sudden lead a team on the
road to a big win? And I think that was a resounding no yesterday as they got their brains beat in by the Buffalo Bills, and I mean literally and figuratively in this game. Now they're going to Miami. We'll see what your thoughts are here, Sam, But this one again Vegas basically telling you to choose your adventure, So which one you want to take?
I'm going with the Dolphins here. We've got a bit of a Spider Man meme matchup of two teams that haven't really gotten it done against good teams season, so one of them is gonna have to do that this week. I think there are a couple of defensive matchups for Miami that are are pretty big. Christian Wilkins right now playing some really incredible ball on the defensive line, and Zach Martin if he is out, could make things even worse.
For Dallas. Jalen Ramsey potentially lined up against Ceedee Lamb when he's lined up out wide. So I think Miami gets Tyreek hillback for this game as well. And and the Cowboys secondary I don't think is playing has not played as well the last several weeks. With all of the firepower that Miami has on offense, I think they're able to take care of Dallas this.
Week, Patuh To Sam's point, Miami has struggled against teams that you know are above them theoretically right, punching up has not been there for today. They've beaten the teams are supposed to beat. Dallas is more of a test. They have also failed most tests. So of these two teams that are good against bad playing each other, who comes out the victor.
But you guys are not gonna be on Jerry Jones' Christmas card list this year, Like Joe, you're just trashing them for how they played against Buffalo, Sam sing, they haven't beaten anyone after they squashed the Eagles in Week fourteen. Like I'm not going to penalize the Cowboys too much for the egg they laid in Buffalo yesterday. As bad as they were against the Bills in Week fifteen. I mean, like that game against the Eagles. They were that terrific
the week prior so. But it was good to see that the Dolphins didn't miss a beat without Tyreek Hill and just squashed the Jets.
So I do think this is a good line. I can't wait to watch it. I'm not going to.
Bet it, all right, I don't know if you can wait to watch this one. The New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. Pat I know, get excited. Minus six for Denver in their building feels about right again, a lot of points for Denver, but it is the New England Patriots and they are definitely done. Thirty four and a half is the number for this one. Plus two
to twenty on the upset line for New England. Now, look, you know we thought, you know, they didn't have anything left in the tank, and then they went into Pittsburgh and won a game. Can they steal another one here? Pat or do you want to at least be on the side of that six that plus number on the New England side considering all the shortcomings of Denver.
No, I want to take the Broncos here. Joe at home.
This opened with the Broncos favored by five and a half, and I think some other people saw the value in Denver too, because it quickly got bet up to six. Terrible game for them Saturday night in Detroit, one of those burned the film type games. But the Broncos have been the much much better team over the last month
and a half than the Patriots have been. Like if you take away the Week fifteen result and figure out what this line would have been, I feel like it would have been Broncos like minus eight and a.
Half or something like that. So I'm happy to take the Broncos. I think there's.
Value sam Broncos or Pats.
I hate that I am on the Patriots again this week. Last week I said, if that game gets out the digits, then take the Patriots. And it did get to ten at some points at some places throughout the week, which means if you got that at worse, you pushed because for some reason, Kansas City took a kneel on fourth down with less than a minute left. But Denver still wants to run the ball a bit and New England's
rushing defense is elite. I mean it's it doesn't get a lot of shine or credit because of the way the rest of the team is playing, but they are able to shut down opposing rushing attacks. And I don't think the Denver passing attack is really good enough to take advantage of that particular weakness. So in a low scoring game, give me, give me the Patriots again.
Begrudgingly. I'll tell you what. Just run to the Javonte Williams under because bywar's a layer at an under. We talked about that on the Prop Show this week. Louis before was the under on all the Pittsburgh running back to that one worked out like, just keep taking the unders on the RBS against New England. That's the best bet in this game period. End of story. Next one here in Las Vegas at Kansas City. Speaking of the Kansasity Chiefs. They are now nine to five, a victory,
but still not a happy one for Patrick Mahomes. Six and eight are the Vegas Raiders after putting up a sixty three spot. Now they're going to go to Kansas City. Typically this would be a smash here, and look though, Vegas is showing confidence a ten points here on the side of the Kansas City Chiefs. Forty three is the number for this one plus three seventy five for the Raiders on the money line, Sam, The Kansas City Chiefs win games, but they still continue to drop passes everywhere?
Canarius Tony more nonsense? Even Kelsey had a drop there in the end zone. I mean, Patrick Mahomes and companies certainly look like a team that is struggling, despite the fact that they are still very much in the hunt for the number one seeds. So can they win by ten at home against the Raiders?
Can they?
Yes? I mean they were down fourteen nothing to the Raiders in their first matchup a couple of weeks ago, end up winning by by fourteen points. The I mean what Vegas did on on Thursday night. Granted it again it was against the Chargers team that we talked about, but I can't I can't invest on either side. I mean, like Mahomes is just I got a feel for the guy, like he is frustrated, like it's and I don't blame him. So the Chiefs offense still in a funk. I mean,
I think they are. There are things that I mean, I want to say the Drops are not going to hold week to week, but they continue to do so, I mean Rashi Rice is really the only reliable player on that offense right now. I mean Travis Kelce even it looks like the Ages is catching up to him a bit. So I'm sticking with some player props on this one instead of a Sider total.
Fair enough, this is the first game of the triple header on Christmas Day. Pat your thoughts on this one here, confidence of Casey.
No, I'm gonna echo Sam's sentiments completely on this one. I just so Andy Reid has totally had the Raiders number since he took the Chiefs job.
Like.
The Chiefs have won nine of their last ten against the Raiders. They've covered six of those ten games. But I just can't lay double digit points with the Chiefs offense not firing on all cylinders. And we know they're probably not going to have Isaiah Pacheco back from this one, so they're you know, parceling out the running game to Clyde Edwards Hilaire and Jerck McKinnon. And the Raiders have been playing really hard for Antonio Pierre.
So I can't lay ten.
But I'm not betting the Raiders with their tortured recent history against the Chiefs.
All right, the middle game here, four thirty Eastern New York, Philadelphia. So you get the Giants and Eagles. Eagles right now minus ten and a half favorites at home forty three and a half is the number plus four hundred if you like the cutlets upset. Look, you know, the Eagles are I think, still a very superior team, no matter what people are saying about them currently. We'll see what happens with them against Seattle tonight. No, they have problem
in the secondary. But look, the Giants, you know, kind of got checked this past weekend by the Saints going on the road to Philadelphia. That doesn't seem like a good day at the office for the Giants.
Yeah, Joe, I mean like, I saw this line and I went through a mental checklist of what I might be missing. I spent ten minutes like, why is this line not higher? Maybe it's because of the ambiguity with Jalen Hurts status for this week.
I think that has something to do.
But even if he misses this week, I would imagine he's back next week.
So I don't know it, just it seems.
Like there is value at the Eagles, just the vastly superior team in this matchup.
All right, Sam, vastly superior Eagles. Is that confidence enough for you to go ten and a half?
No, it's not. The One thing I'm going to bet on is Boston Scott anytime touchdown. This man is the Giant killer. He scores a touchdown almost every single time that they play the Giants. That that's my one bet for this game. They're a little stocking Christmas money on.
He's had like two carries in the last five weeks, so that's a pretty bold bet.
But hey, you know how many carries you need to get a single touchdown? One? All right?
Last one here? This is I mean, some people calling this a Super Bowl preview, I don't know. I mean, Baltimore Ravens might be eleven to three, but they bother me. I don't have elite level confidence in the Ravens. They're going to San Fran was also eleven and three. The san fran Is five and a half point favorites. Forty five is the number for this one plus one eighty on the Baltimore side. Sam, I'm gonna keep this simple. I think you lock in San Fran now in the
five and a half. I think San Franz is a superior team. Like I said, to everybody, not just the NFC teams, the AFC teams especially, but the rest of the NFL. They just feel like a team that is just locked in right now. That pass rush has changed the whole configuration of this defense that was struggling a little bit in the earlier part of the year and making up for maybe some of the things they're lacking
in the secondary. I don't know, man, I don't know how you stop this incredible offense of the San Francisco forty nine or so. I like this five and a half. To me, it's not enough.
Sam, Yeah, this one was tough. I didn't realize this got out to five and a half already. I think I much preferred at four and a half. I think if you like the Ravens, then the money line is the bad. Again. I've mentioned a couple times Lamar Jackson's performance against NFC teams. The forty nine ers secondary is still a little banged up, and I mean some of the plays that Lamar Jackson is making are just incredible. I mean, he's keeping that team alive. Some of their
defensive playmakers that they have are playing really well. Van Clowney having a solid season, So I think again, if you're on the forty nine ers that I wouldn't take it past five and a half. If it gets out to six, I'm probably not touching. But Baltimore, if you do like them, then taking them on the money line to win outright is the way to go.
Pat. Maybe I'm crazy. Sam is probably the voice of reason here. I am a little bit more in the oh, how would you say it? Bold? Bold? Maybe is the word for it. I think sanfred is gonna win this game by double digits. Like I'm taking alternate spreads. I'm looking for San Fran to crush them at home. This is in Baltimore. Maybe I have a different set of circumstances, but I don't know, man, I do not have faith in Baltimore.
So if I'm going to be a contrarian, Joe, I'm going to you know, underscore the point that Sam made about how well Lamar Jackson is historically done against the NFC teams he faces, who are not used to seeing him on a regular basis and have a hard time handling his style of play, which is truly unique. And like also the fact that uh you know, the Ravens are a really good team, and I just I don't like laying that many points to a team as good as the Ravens.
But Joe, I hear you, man like Evan's.
A really good team, Pat, or are they just a good team compared to the rest of the AFC, which is a little mid.
I think, to be honest, I think they're a pretty good team. Like there, I would stop short of calling them a great team, but they're a good team. The other thing is, Joe, let's remember that the forty nine Ers did have a three game losing streak, so this is not an invincible team. They are hitting on all cylinders right now. They are just totally cooking. And I understand I'm not betting against the forty nine ers right now, but I also don't want to lay five, five and a half points to the Ravens.
So I'm gonna I'm gonna stay away from this one.
All right. I will be on my island right off the coast of northern California, sipping the wine and eating the cheese. That is the forty nine Ers. Ive already bet them to win the Super Bowl. I've bet them win the NFC. I cash out a couple of weeks ago the Eagles bets that I had, which was great because I still got my money back there and I have chosen a new ship. It's the forty nine ers. All I wanted them to do was go and prove to me that they could beat the Eagles. They prove
that and it's been no looking back ever since. So give me Sam for a lot of games, a lot of fun holiday games to get too. Also, don't forget drop your comments below, subscribe to the channel, don't miss all of our covers. You get your set up for a huge weekend of betting. Thursday and Friday we got big shows coming at you, and every Wednesday and Friday we've got NBA Action two. It's that time of year, baby, It's time to make some money with the betting side.
Download the VP app right now wherever you get your apps. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Sam and Pat. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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