Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros.
It's time to place your bets, Joe Pisapia, and it is week fifteen in the NFL. It's time to look at some early values. We had some fun games on the slate. And if you watch last week's show, you got Ian early on the Bears money line, on the Broncos money line. Because that's what we do here at Betting Pros. We go ahead, we look ahead, and we find the early value.
We and lock those bad boys in.
And of course to help me break down this week's slate of games, which is every day this week almost you got football.
It's amazing. We got all kinds of football going. You like football, You like football? What do you like?
We got football over the place for you. Pat Fitzmorris, my Patty Cakes and Sam Hoppin, who is always popping here on Betting Pros, always knee deep in NFL and NBA. He's the hardest working man in show business. It feels like so, gentlemen, we've got, like I said, full slate of games to get to. I know it's fantasy playoffs, but for us, every week is playoffs. We're trying to win money. We're trying to do what needs to be
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So make sure you are clicking that beltick goes ding, so you know exactly when the content drops, you're on the channel and you might be the next winner, just like Curtis of that Betting Pros premium subscription. So gentlemen, let's kick things off your Thursday football. I'd love to say it's an exciting one, but it's probably not. Again, the Los Angeles Chargers are going to face the Las Vegas A Raiders. Both teams are five and eight. The over under for this game is thirty three and a
half on the consensus line of Betting Pros. Three is the number. If you like the Chargers to win. It's plus one point thirty all on the money line outright. But we probably won't get Herbert in this game was a broken finger. I'd imagine we're not going to get him, which means we're gonna get Easton Stick potentially playing quarterback, which is exactly what I carried to the plate with me back in nineteen ninety three. A good old Easton stick.
Get out there. Nothing like that metal ping FITZI look, this one is wacky here. I am leaning early on the Raiders here on this one. In the minus three, I know they did not score. I know it was atrocious, but I'm gonna shake the dust off here and instead think I'm gonna take my chances against the backup QB.
What are your thoughts, FITZI.
I agree with you, Joe. I do think there's a little bit of value on the Raiders, and it was really disappointing to see them just completely lay an egg at home against the Vikings and not well. At least the offense late and eggs. The defense did its job, But like, this is a team that has shown a spree decorps ever since the firing of Josh McDaniels, Like
they have been a better team. And now we're getting this Chargers team that has shown an inability to finish again under Brandon Staley, and you know now they've got the backup quarterback. So I do think the Raiders are the better play. But it's interesting that since these lines went up on Sunday night, we've seen a little bit of money come in on the Chargers because now it is minus one fifteen to bet the Chargers and minus one oh five to bet the Raiders, so it's kind of gone the opposite way.
I would have thought, Sam, you're a big Spree de corps. Guy, I know that about you already, so let's talk about it. Let's talk about this game here. I'm just gonna go with the team that is at home. I'm gonna go with the team that's playing against the backup QB, and I'm gonna go with the team that's taking on a Brandon Staley road team here and just kind of take my chances with the Raiders. This is gambling, this is wagering, and it feels like it. But it feels like Vegas
to me. What does it feel like to you?
Look from the creators of Bailey Zappy versus Mitch Trubisky, we present to you East and Stick versus Aidan O'Connell. Another riveting Thursday night matchup that I'm sure Al Michaels will be thrilled to be calling. But I actually kind of like the Chargers here. Robbie Greer Greer NFL on Twitter has done some phenomenal research on the performance of backup quarterbacks when they come in to replace a starter, and when a replacement plays in place of an above
average starter, which I think Herbert is. The backup outperforms Vegas expectations and covers fifty four percent of the games in their start. And I've mentioned the sort of entropy feeling with games in the past and having a lot of unknowns in a game and taking the plus money in those in those games. So I like the Chargers here. I mean, it's gross for sure, But I don't know what I saw from the Raiders on Sunday that would make me excited to bet them.
I had nothing exciting. They did not show up once on red zone. By the way, that entire game, the entire game.
Not once. People are like, is that happening? Do something happened in that game? Was Aaron delay? Nope?
Nope, it was going What a strange game that was?
All right?
Now, we've got three Saturday games. First one is the Minnesota Cincinnati game. Second straight road game here for the Minnesota Vikings. Both these teams are seven and six. Jake Browning playing good football, winning big games here. Thirty nine and a half is the number consensus on VP. You've got a three and a half point number here on the Cincinnati Bengals and the minus Minnesota plus one sixty
four for the upset Sam. To me, it feels like the Minnesota Vikings the Wheels have come off here a little bit. The momentum is completely stopped two road games in a row. I don't love this, and I feel like the Bengals feel like they have nothing to lose here. That makes them supers were as Minnesota, I think, is the opposite their team that is playing tens. They had
to bench Jobs. You don't know about Jefferson. I jumped on this one early in the three and a half from Cincy, But what do you see in this one?
Yeah, I'm right there with you. The Josh Jobs experience, unfortunately, was at a high a couple of weeks ago, is now cratering back down to earth. The Vikings defense is legit, I think. I mean what Brian Flores has done with the team that didn't have a lot of playmakers on defense to start the season. Are are playing great. They have allowed a success rate over forty percent just once
since Week eight. That that was against Denver. The thing that I'm struggling with here is Jake Browning has an eighty four point seven PFF grade against the Blitz this year, which is the third best. We know the Vikings love to blitz, and I think it's a little bit different than some of the other teams that Browning has faced so far. If I had to lean one way, it would be Cincinnati because I think their offense is the
probably possibly the best unit out here. But I can't click either side of this right now.
I think the under is intriguing for this game too. Thirty nine and a half is a good size number. However, with the way that you know Browning's been able to make plays with his legs too and extend some of these plays of times here pat and look he's getting used out of these other weapons he's got. It feels like if this was on the road, I might feel very differently about it. I might be even more concerned.
But in Cincinnati a little bit shorter week, I feel like the Cincinnati Bengals are the more dangerous squad right now.
But what do you think.
I agree with you, Joe, and I do like the
under two because the Vikings are down on firepower. I mean, like the Josh Dobbs thing just hasn't worked, so it's gonna be Nick Mullins justin Jefferson very questionable for this game, and no Alexander Madison, so they're down to Ty Chandler running back, and then you've got Jake brown And going up against the Brian Flora's defense, And yes, he has grated out well against the blitz but let's face it, they caught their opponents in a couple of blitzes this
past week with little dumped offs to Chase brown that one that went for a really long touchdown and another that went for like a twenty five yard game or so. So you know, before we throw too many buquets at the feet of Jake Browning, like, I'm not totally convinced that he is just going to move the ball at will against a defense that has really overachieved this year and has one of the best defensive master minds in the game dialing up the play. So I like the
under here more than I like either side. But if I was going to better side, I would bet the Bengals.
I think. I think. Yeah, a lot of Jake Browning's was passing production has come after the catch. I mean, you've seen the Chase brown screen that Pat mentioned some of the after catch stuff that Jamar Chase has had. So I know we don't typically talk player pops here, but depending on the line for Shake Browning's passing yards. I think the under could be in play.
All right, Let's move to the midday game on that Saturday slate of NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers somehow seven and six, somehow on the inside of the playoff picture. Don't ask me how after the last two weeks thing on these seven and six Indianapolis Colts. This one in Indy, Indy is two and a half point favorites at home. Forty two is the consensus number. You're getting plus one fifteen for the Pittsburgh upset on the money line fits.
It's two weeks in a row.
We're watching the Pittsburgh Steelers here just lose to bad teams. Now, can they get it together and go on the road and win in Indy? It seems like a tall order to me.
Oh goodness, I don't know, Joe.
I've got both teams coming off bad losses. I mean, the Steelers drop a home game to the Patriots forgettness sakes, and the Colts played probably their worst game of the season against the Bengals in losing by twenty two backup quarterback.
So I don't know.
I've just been burned by both of these teams before Honestly, there are also six college bowl games on Saturday. I might be flicking around to some of the bowl games during this.
One, understandable.
And don't forget we've got bowl coverage here with Thor and Scott Bogman on our channel as well. We're always prepared for all the college football stuff.
Sam.
This one feels a little gross. But if you're talking about trends, talking about directions of teams, right, Pittsburgh certainly feels like a team that's going in a negative direction like that just can't get out of their own way. They can't win games at home. Now, is this is a unique opportunity where you say, to heck with a trend and you go ahead and bet agains that makes some money here, or do you stick with the trend and go with Indy.
I'm gonna stick with Indy here. We get Mitch Trubisky again on Saturday. In relief of blanking on this, both TJ. Watt and Alex Highsmith for the Steelers defense are in concussion protocol. Now they get the extra rest, so it might be a little easier for them to come back from that, but Indianapolis continues to dictate the pass and pass quite a bit over expectation in the last couple of days. And this is a Steelers defense that just got roasted by Bailey Zappi with three wide receivers active
for them. So I like the Colts here. I still think again, I've mentioned it every single week, but Shane stike In, from a procedural standpoint outweighs Mike Tomlin at this point. So I like getting Indy e at minus two and a half right now.
You can get India on the money line at minus one thirty five. So if you want to put that together with let's say Michael Pittman, I don't know, Amy over on receptions something another, gimme like that, it's a good way to push this right into the positive. I think that would be a very smart little duo. Bet Denver is the nightcap against the Detroit Lions. This one's in Detroit. Detroit is four point favorites for this game. Forty six and a half is the number plus one
seventy five for the Denver Broncos money line. Now, I keep pushing the Denver Broncos in my videos, keep pushing for them to make the playoffs. I think you're still getting plus one forty most spots for that. I think Denver smells an opportunity here and Detroit is reeling. I know they're going back home. I know we should be looking at Detroit really maybe as the get right game, but Sam, I can't get there. I like the Denver
Broncos defense more. I'm on Denver on the money line two weeks in a row.
Here, where are you?
I think Denver is the side right now, though, I just don't want to bet it quite frankly, because I still don't believe in this Broncos defense. Despite the fact that they haven't allowed more than twenty two points in h straight games, they are still thirtieth in defensive DVOA. They're twenty fourth in defensive rating according to Impredictable, which uses future betting lines for that. And so I that said that, the Lions offense just looks out of funk.
I don't really know what's going on. Ben Johnson had some interesting formations. You know, he's lining up. I'm on Ross Saint Brown out of the backfield, had a handoff to Sam look out of the fullback position there. But I could see this game going just a number of different ways. I could see the Lions getting back into things and blowing the brakes off of Denver. But I just I don't really believe in the Broncos offense enough to necessarily keep them in contention.
Pat, how do you see this one, this nightcap game, because this one certainly I think has everybody's attention. Also out of conference games too, you know, wacky things can happen sometimes.
When I looked at the lines on Sunday Night Show, there were only two games I was motivated to bet early and one was getting the better team in this matchup and four points, So I was happy to take the Broncos in this one. And the line's already gone down to three and a half, so I'm glad I got it at four. Detroit is just reeling and they're having a hard time getting the train back on the
tracks right now. Not only has their defense just gone to hell, I mean they are getting firebombed through the air and they're not anywhere close to the impregnable run defense they had early in the season. But Jared Goff has really struggled too. They do have the run game, and they are going against a Denver run defense that look Denver's really picked it up against the pass, but
against the run they're still pretty bad. So I could see a scenario where the Lions run all over the Broncos, which is why Joe, I kind of want to take this game and take the points rather than bet the money line. Like, if I'm getting a field goal or more with the Broncos, I think that's amazing value and
I want to take advantage. I don't hate your money line bet, and I might even be motivated to throw a little something on that later in the week, but for now, give me the points and give me the hotter and better team right now with the Broncos.
Hey, oh plus months every five is just enough where I'm very intrigued there. But you're right, the safer bet is definitely the four. On the Denver side, Tampa finds himself at the top of the NFC South, so once again nobody wants to win that division. Just like last year, they are six and seven. The Green Bay Packers are hot. We'll see they do a Monday night. They are six and six. Right now, they are three and a half point favorites at home. This feels right. Forty two and
a half is the number. Plus one fifty for Tampa. On the money line, Pat Love has played really well the last three weeks, eight touchdowns, no picks. We'll see again what Monday brings. But the one thing you can do certainly is throw on this team. So is it safe here to maybe take the Packers and take maybe some Jordan Love passing overs and kind of play this one safe?
I think the Packers are safe, Joe. About the passing overs, I'm gonna stick a pin in that for now, and I'll tell you why. So you know I'm not a total Packers homer, Joe, but I do love the Packers here and part of the reason for that. I mean, home field in the NFL is generally regarded as being worth two points in most places these days. For a game with a team from Florida traveling up to Green Bay, Wisconsin in mid December, I would say that home field
advantage is probably closer to four points. I mean, we know what the field is like up there. A lot of teams have trouble getting the right cleats, which is something the Packers don't really have issues with. I mean, Sam Hoppin is from Green Bay, Wisconsin. Sam tell Joe about December in green.
Yeah, the pride of Green Bay, Sam Hoppin, let's talk about this one. What do you think you're confident that your boys can handle their business here?
I am. And to answer Pat's question, it's miserable in Green Bay in December. I cannot stress how much you should not really be going to Green Bay in December, actually December through like mid March. But in any case, Yeah, I mean, I think Love is just going to slice this defensive part. Desmond Ritter just through for nearly three hundred and fifty yards against them. I think Green Bay will get both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones back in
this game, which should help Tampa. Bay also lost both Carlton Davis and Ryan Neil in the game against Atlantis, that their status is sable for a secondary that was already questionable. So I love Green Bay and the Packers.
Yeah, and Joe, by the way, the reason I'm not that keen on the Jordan Love over so I just like, if it's ten below wind Shell, I'm not excited about passing over.
So fair enough, I'm just excited about that secondary coming to town at the end of the day. So, and if Watson's healthy two that's another one. I like, all right, Atlanta, they are six and seven two fighting for that South.
They're gonna go to Carolina in a game they should win. But Desmon Ritter on the road has not been great. Carolina's at home.
They are three point underdogs at home, and they've earned at least that thirty five is the number for this game, minus one sixty eight on the Atlanta side, plus one forty on Carolina. This is a tricky one here, Sam, because this feels kind of trappy in a lot of ways. Your trust level of Atlanta on the road has certainly been I would say all of us cautious to say the least. So do you have any early leans on this one or you're just gonna walk away?
I hate that. My early lean is the Falcons. But the Saints, who we're going to talk about here in a minute, played terribly against the against the Panthers and still blew them out. I mean, like this, the Panthers are just a complete mess right now. The Atlanta defense has shut down the inferior imponents that they've played lately in the Saints, the Bucks, and the Jets. So again, it is little trust, as I have in Desmond Ritter
and Arthur Smith. I think the Falcons should have no issue taking care of business.
Fitz.
I'm surprised you're not getting a bigger number here, like a plus one to eighty or even plus two hundred for the Panthers to win this football game, which is what gives me hesitation here a little bit too, Like what do they know here that's going on that I don't have a beat on. This is just a weird one to me. It feels like a bad situation for Atlanta. But to Sam's point, Carolina just can't get out of their own way, and from a leadership standpoint, they don't seem to.
Have any no.
But the Falcons often can't get out of their own way either, So I think that's why maybe there's hesitation to, you know, put bet money on the Falcons and drive up this line, and why I think we might see it stick close to three. It just feels like Arthur Smith is Wiley Coyote opening the package from the ACME company, Like I just yeah, Like I agree with Sam, like first instinct, bet the Falcons, but then I think about it, and I don't want to bet the Falcons.
Well, make sure whatever your betting. Make sure you make all your bets count and make sure you're downloading the Betting Pros app use all the tools here, and of course if you haven't checked it out, and how's a good time because if you have iOS the first three days you get that premium version for freeze, you can
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In on our NFL contest too.
Just click the community tab go in there, or go to Bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest. We're still doing weekly prizes, monthly prizes, so get in on that as well. Now, this next game is gonna be interesting to see if I can entice either of you on New Orleans is six point favorites at home against the New York Giants, who have not been good this year. We're gonna see what happens with the Giants tonight and Tommy Devido the
Pride of New Jersey. Thirty six and a half is the number for this one plus two fifteen on the money line for the Giants, FITZI, I gotta say my early lean is Giants money line. Like I'm just kind of throwing into the chaos and I'm gonna lean into it, which feels like I look at the Saints and I just can't see them as a six point favorite almost against anybody. So if I'm gonna go play, I might as well go hard. That's my early lean for this game.
What's yours?
Yeah, I don't have an early lean for this game, Joe, But I can totally understand that perspective. I mean, I think by the measure of most power rankings, the Giants are I think I think there's still ahead of the Panthers as far as being regarded as worst in the league in terms of DVOA and like Massy Peabody, you know,
Sam could fact check me on that one. But even though the Giants may be regarded as the worst team in the league, You're right, I do not want to give six points to anyone with the Saints, and like, look at how that offense has just struggled, like they're just.
Incapable of getting the ball into the end zone.
It seems like a lot of the times when they get down to the red zone on third and eight, like we're seeing Derek Carr throw short of the sticks all the time, or constantly under duress with the pass rush.
Like this offense is just gross.
So no, I do not want to lay points with the Saints by any means, But I'm also not totally sure I want to bet the money line and endorse the Giants here.
Joe, all right, well, maybe I can sell you guys on the plus six here at side of the Giants at the mines one ten. Sam, is that something I can interest you for Week fifteen?
Yeah, I mean sure, Like I don't think Tommy DeVito at this point is the worst starting quarterback in the league. I mean.
Very low in the last month it has.
Been, especially with all the quarterback turnover. But why is Derek Carr still starting? I mean a week after leaving a game with a concussion, with a neck injury, a rib fracture. Like any he just goes out and just isn't isn't capable of producing. There was a report this morning that Carr had suffered three different rib fractures this year, two of which nobody even knew about until he told reporters.
And so, I you're right, like the Saints really shouldn't be favored by this many points against any other team in the NFL. Maybe maybe the Panthers, But it's that's way too many points for me to lay with with Derek Carr and the Saints.
Now here's an intriguing one Houston seven to six going to Tennessee four and eight. Now, obviously the calculus has changed her quite a bit with that injury.
Here to the quarterback situation. CJ.
Stroud questionable for that game obviously cancussion protocol after that game with the Jets where he hit his head on the turf. They are two point underdogs going to Tennessee, which feels kind of right right now is like a holder situation. Thirty seven and a half is the number here on the total plus one h five on.
The money line for Houston.
So Sam, this is one of those again, there's early value to be had depending on how you see things going out in the future. Here to me, the biggest one is potentially that under at thirty seven and a half. That's the one that I want to jump in on, and I want to jump in early. But what do you think about this game?
Yeah, that's probably the right side from the total perspective. I think if the Texans do get Davis Mills in this game, they'll probably lean on the run a little bit more. But again, like going back to what I mentioned earlier in the show with respect to Easton Stick, Like, I don't think Davis Mills is the worst backup to He has some experience, has shown some flashes, and this
Titans pass defense is among the worst in the league. Yeah, it's a little up in the air as to whether Stroud comes back from the concussion he left in the middle of the fourth quarter. There wasn't really a reason to bring him back into the game even if he was cleared, given the score of that game. But we've seen, for some reason, more players getting cleared from concussion protocol more quickly over the last couple of weeks. But the hit that he took with the whiplash looked not great
at all. So I think we get Davis Mills just as in an abundance of caution from Houston, saving their franchise quarterback from getting hurt anymore. But I still think Houston is the better team. I think I like the money line for Houston as well. Their defense has continued to play pretty well as well. I think Will Anderson might have left that get the game, so hopefully he's healthy too. But I just don't see much going right for Tennessee lately.
Texans Titans fits any early thoughts.
Yeah, I kind of agree with both of you guys, show I do like the under on this game because even though day Mills is not like one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league, he is going to be without Tanked l and probably without Nico Collins too, so that really limits the Texans passing game. And then you've got the Titans with their you know, mediocre offensive line, rookie quarterback, aging running back. So I don't see a lot of points going up in this game. And I
do think there's value on the Texans. Like, first of all, you're not drawing dead if CJ. Stroud doesn't play on this bet, because Davis Mills is a decent backup quarterback, But what if CJ. Stroud does clear concussion protocol plays in this game? And then all of a sudden, you're getting two points going up against Will Levis and the Titans. So I'm happy to plunk down some money on the money line on this one, and you know, take my chances if it's Mills and feel pretty good about it.
If it's CJ.
Stroud, that's fair, that's fair.
This is the time to do that. If that's the future you think is gonna happen. The future for this next game, this is another four outcome game for me. This one is my walk away this week, at least so far. I can't wait to hear your insights on this one. The Cleveland Browns are eight and five taking on the Bears five and eight. This one's in Cleveland. Cleveland is three point favorites at minus one fourteen. That's the consensus line at betting Pros. Thirty eight is the
consensus number. And then plus one forty.
Five for Chicago.
Now, I know we were very bullish last week on Chicago, whose defense is played better.
Field has made some plays.
Some creativity in the offense there with DJ Moore has been fun. But the Cleveland Browns defense continues to be a very strong unit. Joe Flacco is the starter of the rest of the season. So FITZI any early value on this one between the Browns and the Bears.
Yeah, Joe, we talked a little bit about this one earlier. I like the Bears here. I mean, yes, the defense has been lights out, but boy, ever since the Bears acquired Montese Sweat at the trade deadline. Like the Bears run defense had been pretty good before that, now their pass defense is very good. Also, as you mentioned, they've gotten healthier in the secondary two, which has helped. But like right now, the Bears have a top ten defense,
so I think they can hang in this one. I think they can create some problems for Joe Flacco, who we know can move the ball but will also make some mistakes if you force him into it. And I think the Bears are capable of forcing Flacco into mistakes.
So yeah.
Add the fields to Dj moore Magic, which, like those guys are hooking up for big plays every week, and I think Dj Moore is capable of beating these Browns cornerbacks. Even though maybe the best all around group of cornerbacks in the league. This could actually be an entertaining game, although I think maybe the under is the better percentage play here than the over because both of these defense says are terrific or have been terrific lately.
Sam, this one's tougher for me because I dig what fits a saying. But the Bears on the road is where I start to get a little iffy, Like that's where I'm not as confident. But what about you when you're looking at this game here between the Browns and Bears, do you see this the same as fits or maybe different?
I don't have a much much of a read on this game. The Browns defense has shown some gaps the last couple of days, or excuse me, the last couple of games. Their advanced stats are still encouraging. Instead of this game, I want to tease a little bit of a long shot bet on on the Browns to win the AFC at thirty five to one. I know it sounds crazy.
It doesn't outside actually, outside of.
The Dolphs likes they control their own destiny to get into the playoffs. I think there's still an outside a good chance that they could win the division. Given their schedule and the Ravens play the Jaguars, forty nine Ers and Dolphins in their next three games. That are not all guarantees, so they could come away with the division win. They've beaten the excuse me, the Ravens and the forty nine ers. Granted when the forty nine ers were banged up, but yeah, but.
They banged them up. The it's not loose sight of that.
They're the physical football team that banged up that offensive line of the forty nine ers.
I'm just saying, for a team that looks like they're going to get into the playoffs, the defense could carry them a couple of things go their way. Joe Flacco is not playing the worst quarterbacking by any means right now, so just just a.
Little I don't think it's crazy man, defense travels. They got a good head coach. I don't think that's nuts at all. I think the AFC is open for business.
Yeah, there is no like three hundred pound gorilla in the AFC. Like, all these teams have their flaws. I mean, look at the Chiefs. The Chiefs are struggling to score points and.
Last night is a perfect example of that fact. You know, Yeah, nobody's really run away with the AFC. Even the Ravens at the top right now, they don't feel.
Like struggle to put away the Rams at home, right, exactly right.
And the next one here we're gonna talk about Miami, which is a team you and I were talking about fits, which is they've beaten every team they're supposed to be and they haven't punched up one time to any of the teams that are theoretically better than them or more experienced. So this is that after this game here against the Jets,
their schedule obviously becomes very different. You're starting to look at them having to take on the Bills, they're gonna have to take on the Cowboys, They're going to take on some better teams and see if they can actually get some w's. But they're another one too that I think has a shot to win the AFC. Their twelve point favorites at home against the Jets. I know Zach Wilson had himself a day against the Texans, but I don't know if that's something we can bet on weekly.
Forty and a half is the number for this game, plus four seventy five for the Jets to win. Sam, We'll start with you on this one, Miami, New York. Can Miami cover this twelve That's the question.
I think they can. They took care of business against the Jets on Black Friday just a couple of weeks ago, and there's not really much that has changed. Obviously, they lost Jalen Phillips in that game, which which changes things a little bit, and Zach Wilson is going to be the quarterback instead of Tim Boyle. But twelve right now
feels like a little bit too much. I mean, the Jets defense still can carry its weight by by every measure that they've faced, So I'm staying away from this one right now.
Fitz.
They didn't have a chan though for that Black Friday game, and I think that's the X factor to me that makes me feel much more comfortable at the twelve in this one.
Yeah, I mean, can the Jets ugly it up and keep this one close? Like I think they're capable of it. I know it didn't work out on Black Friday, but I don't know, Like, it wouldn't shock me to see the Jets make this a close game, and it wouldn't shock me to see the Jets lose by three touchdowns. And you know, like, I don't think we're going to get another Haley's Comet game from Zach Wilson where he seventy five percent of his passes for three hundred yards.
And not so.
Yeah, man, I just like this, This line seems right. And I thought about this total, like, what do you do with this high powered offense running up a route against a really really good pass defense and with the Jets having so much trouble putting points on the board themselves most weeks. Yeah, forty and a half does seem like the right number here. So I just I don't see any value here.
I look at Miami at the twelve.
That's what I'm looking at because I think the way the Jets have not been able to handle the run this year. If I'm them, I'm just running the football down their throats. I'm getting those guys out there on jet sweeps too, like Tyreek Hill.
That's what I'm doing. I'm attacking. See. The thing that Miami can do is attack the Jets at their.
Weakness, their strike, those their secondary So when you can have those guys underneath quick, when you can have those guys getting those jet sweeps.
To me, that's the X factor, especially with.
The e chan back, that is the tough thing for me where I think the Jets are going to have a hard time in Miami. The Kansasity Chiefs have been having a hard time lately with the referees, with their wide receivers, with Garius Tony on numerous numerous reasons, the drops the off sides. But they are eight and they're gonna travel to New England. They're nine and a half point favorites in this game. Thirty seven and a half
is the number New England on the money lines. Plus three fifty now fits the Kansasity Chiefs have to get right. This feels like a get right game here the Newing The Patriots are not a good football team. They had a wacky game on Thursday against the Steelers. I'm not again gonna copy and paste that here and think that they're gonna give the Chiefs problems. However, nine and a half does feel like a big number. Therefore, Yah, do you like New England on that side?
I'm tempted by New England and if I were forced a bet this one, and I am forced about it in some pools where I have to pick every game against the spread, So I'm not gonna put my own money on this one, but I am going to take the Patriots and the points in these pools, and like, can you believe we have a total this low for Kansas City Chiefs game thirty seven and a half.
No, I mean, look, it's it's their inability to It's like everything you've watched with the Chiefs in the last few years, where there are the team where things go right in these matches, things happen, he's great plays in these great moments.
None of that's happened.
This year, and none of it in the last couple of games. And that's been the problem. What about Sam Hoppins money? You want to bet him his money on this game at all? Is that of yours?
I mean, I think that's what you like. I think here is the Patriots. I mean you can get them at plus ten in some places right now. Again with this low of a total. I tweeted this out this morning, but the Chiefs are one loss away from going under their preseason win total for the first time since Andy Reid became coach, which again sort of tells you, like the over on their win total was the freest money
that you could find for the past several years. And I've got a Chiefs over eleven and a half win ticket right now, and I'm sweating this out with the remaining schedule that they have and where they're at now. But and with such a low total, a double digit spread is what you want to be looking at. It's, you know, regardless of you know, the teams that are playing, because the Chiefs do not look like themselves.
They don't, they don't, and New England has been very good against the run, not that that's necessarily what they want to do. We'll see if they get to check go back for this game, but lots of unknowns. I think we're all in agreement here. Maybe that nine and a half on New England's way to go. Kansas City wins this game, but I don't know, man, they just can't keep going in this direction, can they. Washington coming off of buye, they're four to nine taking on the Rams in LA.
They are six and seven.
They almost almost took out the Baltimore Ravens, but they fell short in overtime. Six and a half point favorites, though that seems like a lot.
To me for the Rams.
Forty nine is the number plus two forty five for Washington. Now, the value on this board is very clear. It's the Washington upset. So, Sam, is that where you're at or do you feel like maybe just take Washington with the six, or maybe you think the Rams are you know, now a force to be reckoned with.
Perhaps I don't know that they are a force to be reckoned with. But the Rams have played very impressively. I mean, obviously lost the game against the Ravens in overtime, but there are I think few quarterbacks playing and throwing the ball as well as Matthew Stafford right now. You know, Cooper Cup and Pook Poka Naku with probably the catch of the year without any gloves in a rain game
on Sunday. I love the Rams in this spot. Their their defense is still a little suspect, but Aaron Donald's just going to tear apart the inside of that Commander's offensive line. And Sean McVeigh just a clear, clear tier above Ron Rivera right now. And in terms of coaching, so I love the Rams here. I think again, teasing them down to half a point or minus a half point is is a great way to play this game too.
Yeah, that's the thing. It just six and a half does feel like a bit much to me. That's some good advice. Pat you in agreement with Sam.
Sam hit on it.
At first I thought the Commanders might make an interesting money line bet, and then I thought about the Ron Rivera versus Sean McVay coaching matchup, and I had second thoughts about that money line bet.
So this seems like a good line.
I just as functional as this Rams offense has been, in as pleasant as surprise as the Rams have been, I really don't want to lay six and a half points with them, even to the Commanders whose defense struggles. I do think we're gonna see points in this game, Like I don't know if we'll get over this, this big number forty nine, but like we're gonna see points this Washington secondary, those cornerbacks trying to hang with Pooka Naku and Cooper Cup.
Man, I don't see that happening.
How do see it either?
And I think the thing that broke me towards Sam and the being more comfortable with the Rams here is the mistake that's coming eventually in this game here with Sam Howe hosting them a touchdown and that defensive score, that defensive turnover in their own side of the field with a short field, that would probably be the seven points that I'm looking for in this game, and I
think you are going to get that. Therefore, I think the Rams are probably the right side of this, even though that number is a little larger than we're used to with the Rams. And to your points, him Stafford played really well in that game and he looked very sharp. So that was a good thing to see the Arizona Cardinals. Not a good thing to see for them at home San Francisco. Forty nine ers come into town. Thirteen and a half is the number on this one. San Frian
obviously ahead on this one. They are minus thirteen and a half favorites. Forty seven is the number plus six hundred for the Arizona money line. To me, the most complete team in the NFL right now is the forty nine ers. They went there, they handled their business last week, and they did not have a letdown game against Seattle after it this week, which was I think very important to see that they are focused right. They went out there and they kicked the crap out of Seattle too,
and they continue to play very physically. I just don't think Arizona's up for this task. Pat and I know it's a big number, but do you think Arizona can cover it.
Yeah, Oh gosh, I don't know, Joe. I just I hate lines like this. I mean, this is like trying to decide whether to you know, take Alabama and lay thirty nine and a half points to McNeese State, or take Michigan and lay thirty five to Eastern Illino.
Then what about the forty seven?
What is that something where confident that they get the thirty and the Arizona can scratch out seventeen.
Yeah, I'm not confident in the Cardinals doing their part. So this just I hate games like this because you can get back toward in again like this so easily if you bet the forty nine ers, and you know, like, I don't want to bet the Cardinals because I'm not confident they can make this a game.
So I'm just gonna walk away from this one.
Right, Fitzy's walking away, Sam, you're walking away or you're walking towards it.
No, I'm walking towards the forty nine ers the sense thereby they're on a five game winning streak. Their margin of victory in those five games thirty one Jacksonville thirteen versus Tampa Bay eighteen at Seattle twenty three at Philadelphia and twelve this past week versus Seattle. That you said it. They're the most complete team. They have everything going there. They're mostly healthy on both sides of the ball, save a couple of guys on defense that they're going to go and take care business.
I told Pat, I cash out of my hurts MVP on the weekend. I made money on that, made three x the money, and I reinvested that money in the forty nine ers winning the NFC and winning.
The Super Bowl.
And I just think that's right now. I'm looking around. I don't see anybody in the AFC that's really for real. And the NFC Cowboys are interesting, but again, like cowboys gonna go on the road and win a game in San fran I don't know.
That's a tough sell right now for me. Now that San France teams.
That they're in the they are locked in that one spot to me, like, I don't think they're gonna give that spot up here looking at the schedule. Dallas though, coming off a huge win at home, let's give them credit. They are ten and three. They go to Buffalo. This is a tough game here, right you're waiting you're waiting.
For the Eagles.
You got the Eagles, you handle the Eagles. Now you're going on the road into the elements a little bit here potentially in Buffalo. They are one and a half point favorites. Buffalo coming off a game they needed to have to stay alive. They are alive at seven and six. Forty nine is the number plus one oh five? What do you think you're sam you want to go over here for this forty nine or is this one maybe something that is more underwhelming potentially in terms of total.
Man the over, that's a lot of points. I think you need a lot to go right. The Dallas defense looked a little suspect against Seattle in Week thirteen, but man Stefan Gilmour played one of the best games that he's had in a while. I still think that Cowboys defense is legit. Dan Quinn is coaching his tailoff. The weather forecast for Buffalo right now is low forties, mid forties for this game, so I don't think weather is
going to be a concern. I don't think Dak should have much issue throwing the ball against Buffalo, especially if Micah Hyde is out. I like Dallas on the money line here, all.
Right, Dallas on the money line of plus one oh five, again not getting too much value on that fits.
Where do you see this one?
Yeah?
I kind of agree with Sam that maybe the under is the way to go here because the Dallas defense is so strong and the Buffalo defense isn't bad. Like, I think the line is fair, and I wanted to think maybe this was another instance where Buffalo's home field advantage against a Southern team this time of year might be worth more than two. But Sam just kind of popped that balloon with his forecast saying that it's not going to be too bad in Buffalo this weekend, So
I don't know. Joe, we talked about the difference between the Dolphins and the Bills, and how the Dolphins stomp the bad teams and then can't beat the good teams, whereas the Bills will occasionally stub their toe against the team they should be but man, like they go in there like every time the Bills play a good team, it's like creed, Yeah, exactly, Like they throw haymakers against the good team. So I do think the Bills can
hang in this one. I'm not interested in betting either side to be honest.
All right, this next one, I am spinning myself in circles about Baltimore Jacksonville. Baltimore's three and a half point favorites on the road forty three and a half is the number plus one fifty for Jacksonville. Now it's clear the value is on Jacksonville in the money line to win this game outright, to find a way.
And this is the.
Typical Baltimore stub your toe game. If we watched the Ravens long enough this year in years past to know that this is the one that scares me the most. This is the game and they should go out there. They should win, and frankly, they should take advantage of the secondary and take advantage of Trevor Lawrence banged up and missing Christian Kirk and missing some other pieces. That being said, Pat, I can't. I don't find confidence in any of these lines because they all feel spot on
to me. I don't see any value.
What do you think I.
Like the Ravens show. See to me, the Ravens just had the toe stubbing game and they averted the toe stubbing against the Rams. They almost lost that one, and it is pretty rare for the Ravens to play two poor games in a row under John harbaught just doesn't happen that often. So meanwhile, the Jaguars are not looking like the team they were maybe a month month and a half ago when they had everything rolling. Trevor Lawrence played, Gotta give him credit for the grit, but he didn't
look right. Three interceptions and like the defense just doesn't see. But against the pass, they've been pretty terrible lately. So I like the Ravens a lot here.
All right, how about you, Sam, were looking at Jackson of Baltimore?
What do you see? Yeah?
Don't have a lean on either side here, but for the total I do kind of like the over Neither team really plays that fast, but I think both can have success passing the ball. Over the last four weeks, both of these teams ranked in the top eight in passing EPU or play. I think both defenses. The Ravens defense, I think it's a little fraudulent, Like I don't totally buy what they're selling in the Jacksonville defense obviously just got sort of torn apart by Joe Flacco and the Browns.
So I like to overhear forty three and a half okay, forty.
Three and a half their last one here, Philly finally gets a breather. They're going on the road though, to Seattle, so this is another tricky game. Like I feel like the Eagles gas tank is on empty.
Sam.
They are three and a half point favorites on the road against Seattle. Forty eight is the number plus one sixty on Seattle money line, Sam, Eagles are the better football team. They have just gone up against you heavyweight champion after heavyweight champion for about six weeks.
Now.
They should go handle their business. Are you confident that they can against Seattle on this Monday night?
I think they can. I mean I think it largely depends on who we get at quarterback for Seattle. It's it was kind of a weird thing with Geno Smith dealing with a groin injury. It was I think a little unexpected towards the end of last week that he was was questionable. Obviously didn't play against San Francisco. I think we probably get Drew Lock again here. It sounded like it was about a two week injury for for
Gino Smith. So if we get Drew Lock, then I love the Eagles here, but I am I'm not totally confident that in that and honestly, like Drew Lock could have some success against this Eagle secondary.
All right, fits your thoughts here on this one again seems on the surface to be a breather, a get right game, a restabilization potentially of the Eagles. Is that what we get or do we get something far different with the Seattle to team that you know, just two weeks ago all of a sudden took the Cowboys to their limit.
I do not want to lay six points with the Eagles right now to a team that has a major home field advantage.
And I think three and a half actually this one, so.
Oh sorry, I'm looking at the wrong Len. Yes, three and a half.
Still do not want to do that, man, Like exactly, Drew Lock could throw for three hundred yards and three touchdowns against this Eagles secondary.
And like Joe you said it, I mean like the Eagles.
One thing that maybe isn't talked about enough is the loss of Shane Steichen and what that has done to the offense. And right now it seems like they are having trouble righting the ship with the passing game. Like Jalen Hurts has not been very effective through the air, And we talked about it on the show last week and I said, I didn't think Jalen Hurts would be able to go toe to toe with Dak Prescott in a shootout, and that was kind of the case in
week fourteen now against Drew Locke. Yeah, maybe Jalen Hurts can win that shootout. But man, I just do not want to take the Eagles as a road favorite right now going coast to coast, Like, I'm just not feeling the love for the Eagles right now.
They need to get it back together before I'm ready to endorse them with my hard earned.
Money, understandably, So I think that's the truer words I've never been spoken. And we talked so much about nam leaving and what that happened. You know what the Kansas
City offenses look like ever since. Same can be said of psyching too, and I don't think we emphasize that enough because the Eagles kept finding ways to win games and squeeze out victories, but there's an underbelly there that is concerning, especially in these as you said, these shootout games, are these games where they really got to match other teams. So we'll see what happens in week fifteen. It is a busy week FI fifteen, and therefore you need the
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I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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