Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. This be Joey Pai, Joe Pisa, Pia, and it's week fourteen. I can't even believe it. It's time is flying when you're having fun, and I'm having a good time here every single week I'm betting pros with all of you who listen and watch on our YouTube channel. Of course, my good friends Patty Cakes, Pat fitz Morris and Sam Hoppin, who's always got the bets popping. Because this guy and Pat they are in a good mood
this morning. They stayed up all night last night partying after that big Green Bay Packer win against the Kansas City Chiefs. They are on a roll. They're beating the Chiefs, they're beating the Lions. Sam Hoppin, what's it feel like to be a playoff team?
Huh, it feels great. I was kind of on this team a couple of weeks ago, like when they were going through their slump. But man, they they've got me excited. They're playing super well. I mean, even if even if things don't you know, I mean, I don't think they're gonna win the super Bowl this year, but The fact that they're playing this well with this many young players, I think is huge, and it shows that as they've gotten better throughout the season, they're improving, they're developing, all
that sort of stuff. It makes me very, very excited for the future.
It's a very different feel. I bet for you guys too. I mean, twenty five years of expectations. This year you had none, right because no Farv, no Rogers, right, So all the expectations are out now and now Pat like, how does this feel? This must be like a Christmas bonus.
Right, It is like a bonus show.
And I mentioned this on one of the Fantasy Pro shows we recorded earlier today, where really the season was all about affirming that Jordan Love was going to be the quarterback of the future. Like that was basically it find out whether he's the guy we've found out and he is, Like he's strung together a number of really good games, outplayed Patrick Mahomes last night, and now would
just be gravy to get this playoff appearance. And it's looking pretty good since we're currently holding down the seventh spot and don't play a team with a winning record the rest of the way. And I said, we so I apologies, man, it's the Green Bay Packers. It's there's no WI. Although I am a Green Bay Packers stockholder, so I guess I can say, oh, yeah, that's all.
I think. That's absolutely the Wei. I think that yeah, speaking of well, maybe not we's, but maybe me's top of the show. I promised on Monday I would come here and take my licks if the Eagles took theirs, and they did so. Brock Perdy, you are the truth, Kyle Shanahan. You had the team ready to go. You had a good game plan. The Eagles could not tackle. The Eagles could not stop you in the backfield. They get a hand on somebody and they will go buy them.
Momentum did seem to swing at one point after the security guard incident, and I thought the worm was turning, but it did not. So the San Francisco Wine and Cheese forty nine ers, you did it. You went in there, you were physical, you were tough. You showed me everything I needed to believe, So now I believe. Of course, the Welsh certainly was texting me immediately after that last
Deebo Samuel touchdown. I actually texted him and literally as I sent it, I got something back from him at a message, So I hear you, Welsh on Friday, you can go have me. I'm gonna have my wine and cheese while you have at me though that I'm going to do. So good job by the forty nine ers, good job by Purty, great game by McCaffrey, by Debo and the defense as well. So shout out to the forty nine ers. You went in there to a tough spot, you came away with a victory. So good on you.
Now now I take you seriously, So there you go, so we'll take a beat there. Doesn't stop for the Eagles too. They get the Cowboys this week, but we'll get to those games in the second. Don't forget drop your comments below, subscribe to the channel. You just might win a Betting Pros one year free premium upgrade. That's right. All you gotta do, drop a comment, subscribe ring the
beltill it goes dang. That's it. That's all you have to do to get the betting tools that you've always been waiting for the best version of them, to start getting smarter, not harder. With us at Betting Pros. I'd love to say we're gonna kick off Week fourteen with an exciting game. But I can't say that because the Patriots are involved in Thursday Night Football. The Patriots coming off zero points, zero big gooseig nothing, not a not a field goal, not a safety, not anything. New England
now and ten goes on the road to Pittsburgh. Now, Pittsburgh does not have its quarterback Kenny Pickett. He's gonna be done for a while. Steelers are seven and five. They're coming off a loss and a weird game that was delayed twice. Pat. The Steelers are six point favorites in this one. You've got thirty and a half is the over under plus two twenty on the New England side of the money line. I'm taking under here, Pat, and I'm taking it now. What do you think?
Agree?
I have already hit the under because I'm worried this might go lower and we might see something like under.
Thirty Iowah Hawkeye style. So yeah, I.
Do like the under, and that's really the only thing I like in this game. There's no way I'm laying six points with the Steelers, like they've burned me too many times in their home games, including just yesterday. Like I really thought after the rejuvenated offensive showing. We saw in their first game post Matt Canada that the Pittsburgh offense was back, and sadly it was not back yesterday.
And I don't think it.
Was entirely related to the Kenny Pickett like. They were sputtering with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, they were sputtering after Kenny Pickett got hurts. I just don't want to take either side in this hideous game. And yeah, I'll bet the under and you know, tell me how it turns out.
Sam, speaking of sputtering, Bill Belichick and the Patriots coming off a against scoreless game against Brandon Staley, uh, and the Chargers going on the road to New England at home. So what do you make of this one too? You just pound the under with us and running away.
I actually like the Patriots here. I mean, I don't think Mitch Trubisky should be a six point favorite against really any team as bad as the Patriots are. And the Patriots defense, I think has improved lately to have by far the best rushing defense in the league. They haven't allowed a success rate overall over forty five percent since Week seven against the Bills. They're allowing negative point two point five ep of per play on early downs.
So I think they'll put Pittsburgh behind the sticks and force them to throw on on third. And I think again, with a total this low, I want to take as many points as I can get in. Six points I think is enough for New England to stay in. I mean, they kept it close against the Chargers. Now, obviously the Chargers defenses is much worse than Pittsburgh's, but I think, excuse me, New England has enough to keep this game within six points.
All right. Atlanta is at home there two and a half point favorites against Tampa. Thirty nine is the number on this one plus one fifteen If you think Tampa could go in there and come out with a victory, Sam this line feels pretty right to me. I don't see any value on it right now, Do you see.
Any I don't.
Tampa Bay was once a very stout run defense, but they've allowed a forty nine percent success right over the last four weeks, which is the worst in the league. Over that span, they've let both the Colts and the Panthers, of all teams, run all over them. Now they face a team in the Falcons that are the most heavy
team this season. That said, I do like the alternates with Tampa Bay, you know, taking them minus two and a half, minus six and a half something like that, because I think Baker is the better quarterback, has a much higher ceiling than Desmond Ritter, and he'll be able to pass the ball against this Falcons defense. But I want to give a quick shout out to Mike evans Man ten one thousand straight, ten thousand yard seasons to start his career. He's a Hall of Famer for me.
First ballot Hall of Famer at this point. I mean, that's a stunning accomplishment. I know he got to play with Tom Brady for a couple of years, but it wasn't always tom Brady there. I'll just remind everybody, all right, Pat, what are your thoughts on this one here with Atlanta and Tampa. Atlanta did look great on the road, they never do. Ridder plays better at home. Anything you want to take out of this one, Yeah, I.
Mean, I'm just so thoroughly unimpressed with the Falcons offense. For an offense that has Jon Robinson and Kyle Pitts and Drake London and it's this underwhelming.
Hello Arthur Smith.
This number sort of says that maybe the Falcons on a neutral field would be deemed about half a point better. I don't really believe that. Like I think there's a little bit of value here on the Buccaneers. I'm not sure if I like it enough to actually bet at. But I know in the pools I plan where I'm forced to pick every game against the spread, I'm gonna be taking.
The box in this one.
If the Falcons just go out there and get aggressive on the QB market next year, they could really be a force, I think, especially in that NFC South. It is not a good division. Let's get to speaking of not being very good, the Carolina Panthers. They're now one to eleven. As we said, the coaching firing bounce was not a thing here for the Carolina Panthers necessarily, although they did keep that game closer than I think a lot of people like myself thought that they would. New
Orleans is five and seven. They were at home. Five and a half is the number Derek Carr another injury last week. Thirty eight is the number on this one. Carolina plus two hundred. They getting two to one. I would think pat that this would be a larger number than that, just a plus two hundre on the money line. If this was three to one, I'd be really interested in Caroline on the money line, maybe sneaking out of victory here with the Saints, especially if Winston ends up
being quarterback. Do you want to bet this now when you have the uncertainty of who's playing quarterback? Or do you want to wait for clarity and then maybe lose some value?
Yeah, I mean I'm operating under the assumption that Derek Carr is gonna miss this one, not only the concussion, but like he injured everything on that hit back shoulder like this the whole nine yards. Yeah, I mean, he was just crushed on that hit. So I think it will be James money line. Is interesting that that's an
angle I hadn't thought about. Joe, Like, I just don't know if there's enough value to take the Panthers in the points, because the Panthers are a pretty sorry outfit overall, but like you could see enough Jamis mistakes to basically like hand over a win to the Carolina Panthers. And also Jamis playing in this one sort of makes me want to bet the over in this one, because Jamis throws so aggressively downfield like it can lead to big
plays for the Saints. It could also lead to you know, pick sixes or setting up the Panthers on a really short field like I think it's going to maybe spike the score of this game a little bit. So getting a low total like this gives me some mild interest in betting the over.
Sam, how about you? Do you have a mile interested in maybe betting the over in this one?
Also, that's probably the one lean I would have if I were betting on this. I don't really have a lean on this game right now. It's Car's second concussion in the last three weeks, I think, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's out even longer than just this game. So I expect Jamis Winston in this game. So in a game with Jamis, you're shooting for anything with variants and I mean even some alternate overs here too against this Panthers defense.
All right, let's look to the next one here and what should be theoretically maybe one sided contest. We'll see the Houston Texans seven and five. Tank Dell is gonna be out now for a while with that broken leg. Unfortunately, very sad situation. They're also sad the New York Jets, who are now four and eight. They are six point underdogs at home. Feels about right to me. Thirty five and a half is the number for this one, plus
two to twenty. Now, Sam, when we're looking here at the New York Jets, you know, we keep talking about, oh, you know, the defense of the Jets, defense of the Jets. But at the end of the day, you can run the football on the Jets. So if you just run the football effectively and let CJ. Stroud continue to go out there and do what he does best. And he's made Noah Brown useful, He's made Robert Woods useful. Clearly Nuco Collins coming off a huge game. This feels like
maybe Houston Texans are getting respect? Are they getting enough respect here on this one? I know the money line of the Jets is plus two fifteen. I want no part of that. The way the Jets offense runs, But do you think that the Houston Texans could go out there and really just kind of embarrass the Jets with the offense that they have.
I think they can, but I think the market is finally caught up to the Texans and who they are, understanding that they're or probably top six seven team in the AFC right now. And what's keeping me off of betting on the Texans is they just had a number of situational or process related mistakes. They had three red
zone field goals this past week. Again it's Denver. They used a timeout on defense with thirty seconds left, which I get you want to get your best defense in place, but that extra time out could have been very helpful if Denver scored a touchdown earlier. And they were just running the ball too much on early downs to put them behind the sticks, and it was just third and long for them too too many times. And C. J. Stratt, as good as he is, can't play hero ball every
single third down. That said, I'm not spending any of my hard earned money backing the Jets here. Whether it's Trevor Simeon or Tim Boyleer or Zach Wilson. I don't even know who's going to start in this game, so I'm laying off of this one.
I'm not I'm gonna go with the Houston Texan side of this game. I'm confident here and then maybe I'm too confident. Maybe Sam is right that you know, everything's catching up a little bit to the Houston Texans. They keep coming out with victories, but pat they are still green and they show that they are still work in progress. That being said, I see no progress with the Jets offense, no matter who's playing quarterback, and I think more than a touchdown. It's one thing when the Falcons they come
into your building on the road. This is not Desmond Ritter, this is C. J. Stroud, and that guy has been a difference maker this year.
Yeah, but we've seen Trevor Simeon flash competence in uh when forced to come in and play in a pinch before. Like I'm skeptical of that, of course, but I have a little bit of trouble laying six points to a home dog that has a really legitimate defense like that makes me a little bit nervous. I don't know if I can do it. I understand what you're saying, like there's no confidence in this Jets offense whatsoever. But I kind of think the Texans have been overvalued in the
batting markets. We saw that coming into Week thirteen, they had gone I think three and two in their last five games, but only one in four against the spread over that stretch. And then they did get a cover against the Broncos, but it took Russell Wilson committing three turnovers in the last what fifteen or sixteen minutes.
Well, but that'savers that were forced to which I think you know they did. They did put some pressure on Wilson at the end, and the secondary played well. Will
Anderson had a really good game. I actually think that that Texans defense, which is something we talked about in fantasy, like one of the better fantasy stretch runs last playoff defenses, they have some great and they have two matchups against the Titans they think remaining too, like they've got some good situations there the Houston Texans too.
So I mean a lot of people are going to look at this game and say, well, you know, really good offense versus really bad offense, slam dunk Texans. I don't think it's quite that easy, and I don't see the value on betting the Texans.
All right, Well, I will stand with the lone wolf here on my island that I will take the huston in Texans. The Indianapolis Colts seven and five making some noise in their own What a great story they've been Gardner Minshew coming out with a big overtime victory taking on the Bengals coming off a Monday night game. We'll see what the results are of that. The Bengals are five and six. They are two and a half point
home underdogs, which is understandable. Forty one is the number in this one plus one point fifteen forty one pretty decent sized number here, considering we're dealing with not one, but two secondary quarterbacks. But yet, Pat, I still look at it and I'm almost confident in the over. Am I crazy?
H man?
I'm not touching this one, Joe. I think like the total and the spread are pretty spot on. Like, I just haven't been able to get on the right side of any Colts games this year.
I can understand the interest in the over with the.
Fast paced the Cults like to play at and like, I don't think Jake Browning is by any stretch of the imagination, the worst backup quarterback in the league, and he's got a lot of weapons around him, so I can see the case for the over. I'm just not interested in taking it right now. Maybe if they have, and I showing against Jacksonville tonight and the total doesn't spike as a result.
Yeah, you can maybe interesting to your.
Point, and that's why I want it like I want it now before they look halfway decently, if they put up seventeen points tonight, you know, you just put up fourteen next week all of a sudden. That makes me feel pretty good about maybe getting to this over What do you think here? You think? Sam? That again, this is one of those conundrums. Betting the Colts has been very difficult all year. As Pat was saying, it's hard
to be on the right side of this. Do you feel confident that there is a right side, Sam?
I don't feel very confident. I mean, five of indianapolis seven wins this year have been on the road, and in their four game win streak that they're currently riding, three of those wins have come on the road. So
it's hard to say that that's going to continue. And I don't know which ones they've been favored in, but the Cincinnati defense continues to be just a massive sieve, especially against the pass and Indianapolis this could be a function of the teams they faced in Tampa Bay and Tennessee has a passwright over expectation of six percent or greater in their last two games, so I expect them to come out throwing the ball against this Bengals defense.
Michael Pittman looks like a star right now with the way that Garner Minshew is targeting him. So I think the fast pace plus the Colts passing the ball a little bit more definitely leads to the over. And to your point, Jake Browning played decently well against Pittsburgh last week.
Obviously had a couple of lucky bounces that padded his stats a little bit, but he's still playing with Jamar Chase and t Higgins who's going to be back in the game on Monday Night football, and I think with just the talent they have on offense, can keep it competitive. I do think again I've mentioned this several times, but the Colts have a massive coaching advantage here with with Shane Steiken. Zach Taylor, I think is getting exposed a little bit without having Joe Burrow to cover for some
of his mistakes. But I slightly lean towards the Colts, but I think this line is pretty darn accurate.
The Rams are now six and six they will take on the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore. Baltimore's nine and three coming off of bye. They are seven and a half point favors, which makes sense here. Forty four and a half is the number The Rams are plus two sixty on the money line for an upset. Look, the line's telling you that Baltimore should handle their business here against this Rams team. Do you think that that is going to be the case for this contest? Sam?
I do You're getting the Ravens off of a bye, a team many might consider to be the best team in the AFC. If not, the NFL teams have have been able to have success on the ground against the Rams. That should be no different for the Ravens. I love the Ravens here as a potential teaser leg, teasing them down from seven or seven and a half down to one one and a half. But the Rams defense has played somewhat better since thereby the last couple of weeks.
But that's been against the Seahawks, Cardinals in Browns. So nothing really to write home about there.
All right, Pat, your thoughts on this game here coming up? Because the Rams, obviously you know it's got a tough spot there on the road in balked More, a tough place to play, especially with that week of rest that the Ravens are coming off, and you know, still uncertainty. The health of Cooper Cup clearly not one hundred percent, and Puka Nakua soldiering back onto the field doesn't mean he's one hundred percent either.
I could not bet the Ravens fast enough when I saw this line on Sunday Night, Joe, and honestly, I was pretty surprised that this number was as modest as it was given the Ravens pretty lengthy track record of success at home. Plus you've got the West Coast team coming out east for the early kickoff, like it's it's the classic setup where yeah, I bet the home sitting Eastern time zone team. So yeah, the Rams have not been the pushovers this season. We thought they were gonna be.
They a little more teeth both offensively and defensively, I think than we were expecting. But man, like, not only did I get the Rams at plug or the Ravens at minus seven and a half, but I got them at minus one oh five, And like, I'm expecting this thing to move closer to like eight or nine points as the week goes on. So I'm really super if I got it at one oh five, like it's gonna take some Ravens to get it right now.
It actually went in the other direction, which I think is kind of crazy. So just this morning when from seven and a half to seven in some spots, good, Yeah, they.
Are thing to remember and I don't remember that have the exact stet off the top of my head. But Lamar Jackson against NFC teams, I think he's got like one loss against them in his career, and yes, and I hate I hear trend betting like that, but I think there is some signal to these teams who don't see a Lamar Jackson type player as often. Obviously the Rams get Kyler Murray, but I think they're slightly different play styles despite their both him being mobile.
Now, the next game on our list today is this NFC North matchup between the Bears and the Lions, and the Bears are at home. They are three and a half point underdogs at home, which again makes sense here the Lions have had trouble closing out games and also the Lions defense has given up a fair amount of points this last few weeks. So I'm a little concerned
here with this trend line. Forty three is the over under plus one fifty for Chicago on the money line, Pat, I know that the Detroit Lions are the better team, but if I'm pointing at one game this week on the schedule that feels like a potential upset, it's this one. As the Bears continue to find their identity and know that they're all playing basically for their jobs, including justin Fields to say, hey, I'm the franchise guy. I feel
like there's a lot riding on this. And not to mention, the Bears defense has played a lot better than I think people give him credit for in the last few weeks, especially in the secondary once Brisker got healthy again. So what do you think about this matchup here? Is this the potential upset on the slate that maybe a lot of people don't see coming.
I do see value on the Bears, Joe, and I wouldn't mind a money line bats on Chicago as a home dog. So like it seems like this line in this total are being swayed somewhat by the Bears last game that Monday night game, against the Vikings, where the Bears did win thanks to you know, like a host
of turnovers. But like the Bears offense wasn't clicking and they could not get into the ends and they kept settling for field goals, And I think that has people sort of misconstruing the Bears as some sort of offensively challenged team, which I don't think is the case.
I mean, we know.
They've got a very explosive quarterback and a very explosive receiver in Dj Moore.
So yeah, I like this.
Like the Lions laid an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers, they jumped out to a huge early lead against the Saints and let the Saints back in the game. The Lions have just not been that impressive lately, and the Lions they have just been an over machine lately. So seeing this game, like it opened at forty four and a half DraftKings, it was down to forty three and a half and I'm not sure why the total is going down.
Rather it's forty three on the consensus. O.
Man, Yeah, I'm smashing the over in that absolutely, Sam.
How do you feel about this one? Dude? Do you see what Pat and I see are you just gonna be a little bit more conservative maybe and just take the over I do.
I mean, I think the the Lions, well, yeah, from the total perspective, I'm for sure taking the over. I've already taken the over this morning. Both of these teams have capable offenses and defenses that are suspect. You mentioned that Chicago's defense had been playing better, but you know, you look at the again, the opponents that they faced, the Saints offense that's been sort of all over the place,
a Panthers team that hasn't been great. They got eviscerated by the Lions just a couple weeks ago, and then we're saved by a bunch of turnovers against Minnesota. So I think Detroit's offense being able to put up against this Bears defense and the Lions defense not you know, being great. They've been one of the worst defenses in the last several weeks, and Chicago was able to score
against them a couple of weeks ago. So I would have ran to Lions minus three and a half if not for the heart palpitations that they gave this past week against the Saints, because I had them minus four and I was sitting, you know, lounging back when they were up twenty one to nothing and then jeez, I almost lost it. If they would would have lost, so almost I do. I do still like the Lions, but the to or excuse me, the over is what I'm targeting here, all.
Right, Before we get to our next game, which is an AFC matchup with big time playoff implications, don't forget to tune into our newest NBA show over Betting Pros, and that's Fast Break Bets with Matt Mody. Every single Wednesday and Friday eleven am Eastern. He is live breaking down the NBA betting slate for you over on our Betting Pros YouTube channel, So make sure you subscribe for the hottest picks and the juiciest odds for that day's NBA action. So Matt is absolutely crushing it there again
Fast Break Bets right here on Betting Pros. Now, Cleveland seven and five is going to be a home underdog to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Whore eight and three thirty six and a half is a number for this one plus one thirty five on the money line for the Cleveland Browns. I gotta say, right, now my early lean and I might even be more of a more of a better than a leaner at this point is on the Cleveland side of this game. I don't know what it is, but maybe I'm just drinking the Joe Flacco kool aid.
And I think when he gets back with another week of practice here with the Cleveland Browns at home, I think they can come out with a victory. I kind of like the money line on this one. Sam, what do you think, am I getting a little too too excited about another Joe? Is that what's happening?
I think you are. I think Joe Flacco sort of looked better than how he actually played. I mean it's also relative to how Browns quarterbacks have played this year, which is has not been great at all. I think some of that shine is gonna wear off. Amari Cooper is dealing with a concussion injury as well, which would be a huge loss to them. And I think the
Jacksonville defense is much better than the Rams as well. Impredictable, which is a website that uses betting odds looking out into the future, has them rated as the seventh best defense, compared to just the twentieth best for the Rams. And the Jacksonville offenses looked fixed the last couple of weekends, and excuse me, the last couple of weeks, and the Cleveland defense just had their worst output from an EPA
per play perspective against the Rams. I like the Jaguars here, even coming off of a short week.
All right, so we're split here, pat break the tie, Cleveland or Jacksonville. Do you have any early leans in this game?
Oh?
I'm not going to be a very good tie breaker because I'm torn between your two points of view. When I first saw this line, my instinct was that, you know, there was value on the Jaguars here. But then the more I thought about it and how Cleveland can be a pretty tough place for visiting teams to play, the Joe Flack like, I do think Joe Flacco does sort of legitimize this offense and give them at least a little bit of balance. Yeah, we're probably due for some
horrible Joe Flacco game at some point. Maybe it's this week against the Jaguars defense, which is one of the more underrated defenses in the league. But boy, right now, I think this is just a good number and I'm not really interested in betting it either way.
Honestly, from good numbers to big numbers.
The Seattle Seahawks put up a big thirty five, came up with a loss, though regardless against the Cowboys earlier. They're gonna have some extra time rest, but it doesn't matter to go into San Francisco to take on the forty nine ers minus ten and a half favorites at home at minus one ten, that's a consensus line. Forty six and a half right now is the total for this game, plus four hundred for this Seattle upset. So Pat,
this really comes down to one thing. Is there any sort of residual jet lag after that big Philly loss where a letdown against Seattle? I don't think there is.
That.
Being said, ten and a half is a big number, so can you get behind that? I was all about on Thursday Night Football, the Seahawks covering the nine and a half. I'm less confident here in this one against San fran than I was against Dallas.
Yeah.
Same, I got that cover along with you in Seattle, Joell, though towards the end, I was starting to feel like it was kind of a greasy cover if not gonna lie, but we did just see Seattle hang with Dallas and fight them tooth and nail in that game, and yet here they are opening as a double digit road dog against San Francisco. And who can argue after what San Francisco did to Philadelphia.
In Week thirteen.
So yeah, I mean, if I were going to bet this one, I would probably lay the points with the forty nine ers. I mean, we've seen that they they can absolutely land the heaviest punch of any team in the NFL, and boy did the Eagles take one on the chin in Week thirteen.
So I'm not betting against the Niners right now.
Does Seattle have any unfinished business here with the forty nine ers from last year at all? Where maybe Sam they're taking this game more seriously than the forty nine ers are.
I mean, they have unfinished business, but I don't think they're going to finish it on Sunday by any means. I mean, the forty nine Ers blew the breaks off the Seahawks on Thanksgiving, you know, ten twelve days ago, however long ago that was, and Seattle had their best offensive output of the season against a great Dallas defense. But I don't think that continues against San Francisco. The forty nine ers at full health are the best team
in the NFL. They're clicking on all cylinders offensive defensively like they are just In I think, a class of their own, and so I don't think the Seahawks really keep it close.
Unfortunately, all right, Minnesota six and six goes to Las Vegas. Who's five and seven? Vegas at home three point underdogs. Minus one ten forty and a half is the number in the consensus betting pros app right now plus one thirty for the Raiders to win this game. Now, you're getting Jefferson back, some lack of clarity of who's going to be throwing the ball to him, Sam, do you take advantage of that fact? Or do you think the line is even right here? This is a a tough
game to really peg down. For me, this is more of a two or maybe a one and a half here, And I don't know, I feel like the Vikings are getting a little too much credit. What do you think, Sam?
Yeah, this was a very tough one. We got both teams coming off there by the Vikings getting Justin Jefferson back, Las Vegas has allowed a nine point one percent explosive pass rate the last four weeks, and Jefferson is only going to help that. I think the Vikings defense is probably a bit too much for Las Vegas. Vikings have a lot a negative point zero seven ep of per play this year, which is seventh best in the league, of forty two point one percent success rate which is ninth.
So I would prefer taking the Vikings on the money line here without the points. I just think again from a coaching perspective, to Minnesota has the edge, I would be more excited about having Josh Dopps back there than any of the other options that Minnesota has.
All Right, Pat, what are your thoughts your Vikings Raiders?
Boy, Sam is trying to talk to me out, talk me out of this about I basically saw this the same way you did, Joe, Like, I thought this should be closer to.
A pick them.
Like.
The Raiders are three and one against the spread in their last four and they've played undeniably like respectably since firing Josh McDaniels. They've been like a totally different team.
And the Vikings. Yeah, maybe part of this line is the bounce from the impending just and Jefferson return, But man, it does seem like it's too big a bounce like this Josh Dobbs feel good story, like he played so badly against the Bears that we went from this feel good story with Dobbs, the you know, fairy tale season for him to Kevin O'Connell being like, uh, yeah, I don't know what we're doing at quarterback for Week fourteen when we come out of the bottom like it was
that wretch at a performance. So, man I I am inclined to just take the Raiders on the money line like a very small bats. Yeah, just because I think they are absolutely live in this game. Like I don't think they are too out goned by any you know, there's not a big talent gap in this game.
There just isn't.
So I know there's not the usual home field advantage for the Raiders in Las Vegas, but man I still think that's where the value.
Is, all right. The next one here, this is a fascinating one. The Chief's coming off of a tough loss. They have, they're eight and four, but they don't look like a dominant team right now. Six and six Buffalo Bills are coming into Kansas City, and maybe this is exactly what both of these teams need. I don't know. The Chiefs are just two and a half point favorites, though forty seven and a half is the consensus number. At minus one ten you get plus one eighteen on
the Buffalo side. Pat. This game kind of reminds me of like two aging divas who are picking up a Las Vegas residency, where you know, it's like, oh, come see Celine Dion and Share do this? You know, like neither of these teams right now look like the best team in the AFC, yet they are still you know, in a lot of ways, favorites and a lot of people's minds. So what do you take out of this one?
Any early value could we get that?
Like Selene versus Share is the undercard at Caesar's Palace for someday.
Yeah, I'd pay to see that. I don't know what the odds are on that one. I think I've got. I got Celine Dion. You know, she's her stamina is very good. Although Share, you know what is she like eighty years old?
Now?
I feel like, I mean, she's still out there sicking, so God bless her.
Even even with the loss to the Packers and Sunday Night, I think a lot of people will look at this line and instantly be have the instinct to bet the Chiefs, Like this number isn't big enough. But it was interesting that last week in the massive Peabody ratings, I think the Bills were ranked like a quarter of a point higher than the Chiefs, and certainly the Chiefs number didn't go up with that loss to Green Bay. So like this, this feels like the right line to me. I mean,
plus the Bills. Boy, right now, the Bills and the Texans are on the outside looking in in the playoff hunt, like we got to get them in over the Browns, and you know, like nothing against the Colts, but I'd rather see the Texans or the Broncos, or even the Bills, Bills or even the Broncos play in the playoffs over.
The Browns the anyway.
So yeah, like that is going to incentivize the Bills because they are fighting for their lives right now, Like they can't afford many more losses, got maybe one more loss, No, they really can't.
The Chiefs can't either. I think that's a great Argument's argument I made last week for a game where I said, you know, this team just needs this game more than the other one and then it turned out to be true. And I think to a certain extent you saw that on Sunday against the Eagles too. I think the forty nine Ers probably needed that game more than the Eagles did, and they wanted it more. Sam. I mean, both these
teams kind of desperately need this game. So at the end of the day, how do you how do you bet it?
Yeah? I think I leaned the Bills here. I originally said that I was going to say that I don't have a read on this game and wanted to go through the sort of the details of how these teams match up a little bit more quickly or excuse me, a little bit more deeper. But I just think the Bills have just continued to be underrated and their offense played extremely other just like not coming out on the right side of these these wins.
No nothing breaks their way. They never have that moment that goes their way. They always have that one thing that goes against them, or that one moment that you know they don't take advantage of. That seems to be the whole mo of their twenty three season.
Yeah, and I think coming off the buy, it'll give them a chance to reset and have an opportunity to again get ready for this massive game and hopefully assert themselves as continuing to be one of the best teams in the AFC.
All right, Denver at the Chargers. Denver coming off a tough loss, or they are two and a half point underdogs going to the Chargers, don't I don't understand this at all. Forty three and a half is the number plus one twenty five for the Denver Broncos. Give me the plus one twenty five. I'm taking the Broncos on the money line and I'm not looking back. Sam your thoughts.
Yes, I agree.
Denver's turnover loook finally ran out against Houston this past week, and where I said Houston falter early, Benver benefited from that to an extent, but again they still kept it within five points against Uston had a chance to win the game. Denver has wanted to rely on their ground game. They've had a negative eight percent pass right over expectation the last two games, and the Chargers defense can be run on. I mean that the Chargers are also just
lackluster on offense. Quinton Johnston has just been a massive wiff. He continues to have some terrible drops. Austin Eckler looks like dust at this point. They have just one game with a forty five percent success rate since Week four, and that was against the Lions defense that we mentioned has been historically terrible. So I like the Broncos here like it. It sounds secretly just to say at this point given the quarterbacks on either side, but it hasn't looked pretty at all for Los Angeles.
No. I mean in La pat is not a home field advantage, so throw that out the window too. Brandon Staley got lucky last week that he came out with a victory here against the Patriots team that can't do anything offensively. But I think Denver bounces back here in a big way and look, regardless of his loss of the Texans, you know, I still think Denver to make the playoffs is a fascinating bet. I talked about it last week on my Best Bets video. I feel like,
you look at the schedule they have. They've got two games against the Chargers, they got a game against the Raiders, like they can handle their business and still get the ten wins here.
Yeah, it does feel like the value is with the Broncos but I cannot shake this paranoid feeling that this game.
Is a trap, Like I just can't. I mean, like I want to see it.
The way you guys see it, and it does feel like, you know, as you said, Joe, not the traditional home field advantage for the Chargers, the Broncos with you know, a lot of momentum going into that Texans game. And it wasn't like they played terribly in that game, you know, until committing the turnovers at the end. So boy, I do want to like the Bronx goes in this one.
But man, I just there's a bad feeling I cannot shake. I watched this game.
Go watch some more tape of Brandon sdally coach football games. I think it'll bring you around. Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys. This is the one Sunday Night football. Get ready, folks. Three and a half point favorites are the Dallas Cowboys. Fifty two fifty two and a half is the number
plus one fifty for the Eagles. So Pat has the gauntlet finally caught up with the Eagles that they running out of steam or do they bounce back here after a tough home loss against the Cowboys, who you know, they've been their daddy for the last couple of years.
I am leaning the Cowboys here, and this would have sounded crazy if anyone would have said it a year ago. But I don't know if Jalen Hurts can go toe to toe against Dak Prescott as a passer.
In this game.
Like I Dak has just been so hot, and this Dallas passing game is functioning at such a high level. And meanwhile, I don't think we are seeing anything close to the sort of success Jalen Hurts had through the air last year. Like you know, like there's some big plays, some splash plays to AJ Brown. Yes, of course we've seen that. But if this game does turn into the shootout that the total suggests is, it's going to be man. I would much rather roll with Dak than with Jalen Hurts.
And by the way, this Eagles pass defense is such an achilles heel, Like if they cannot get to the quarterback and they didn't get to Brock Purty on Sunday, like, those cornerbacks are defenseless, and I think Cede Lamb is just going to rampage against this Eagles secondary.
Dak, Jalen Hurts brock Purty are nearly all tied for the MVP voting right now in terms of Vegas odds, So Sam, this has a lot at stake here, not just for the NFC, but also for maybe MVP. Is this a statement game for DAK or a bounce back for the Eagles?
I think it's a statement game for Dak. To Pat's point, the Eagles secondary has been a weakness for them all season. You saw them get torn apart against San Francisco this past week. Dak is I think whichever quarterback wins this game probably comes out at the top of the MVP market afterwards. I just I don't see how Philadelphia is able to keep up with with Dallas. I mean, I think they can, but Jalen Hurts has been hobbled the last couple of weeks, left the game for a little bit.
I don't remember if he missed any any plays in the game against San Francisco, but clearly dealing with some lingering issues that I think are limiting his mobility a little bit. And Dallas just again they I think Thursday night was the potential one spot where again they maybe falter a little bit and variants doesn't go their way and they got through it. I mean, similar to the way the Eagles have have been getting through their games,
you know, all season. So give me Dallas. I I'm excited to watch this game.
All right. We got not one, but two Monday night games too, Green Bay, New York Giants. The Giants thirty seven is the number. They are six and a half point underdogs at home to your Green Bay Packers. Gentlemen, all these primetime Packer games, you gotta be loving this plus two forty for the Giants upset. So Sam, you still spreading the love with Jordan. You're still feeling really good about this guy who's now three games, eight touchdowns,
no picks. I know, probably not gonna have Christian Watson this game, but does it matter against the Giants?
No, it doesn't. Give me. Give me the Packers. The Packers just recorded zero point two to sixty pa per play and a forty eight point six percent success rate against one of the best defenses in the league. It was Green Bay's best performance of the season on offense in Kansas City's worst performance on defense this season. Tyrod Taylor could be at quarterback here for the Giants, but that team hasn't had a success rate on offense over
forty percent since Week eight. The Packers are gonna go into MetLife Stadium and Teor Park this Giants team.
All right, Pat, are you co signing that?
Yeah? Joe, this is our second year doing this show together, so you you can attest that. I am not like an overt Green Bay Packers homer from a betting perspective, If anything, I tend to be a pessimist.
So but I like them against the Chiefs.
Last week, and I was pretty surprised when I saw how modest this number was. Only I think they're more than a touchdown better than the Giants, whether it's Tyrod Taylor or our guy Tommy DeVito, like he's gonna run into trouble like this. Packers past defense is legit. You can run on the Packers, but it's really hard to throw on the Packers. So I don't think you're gonna see the Giants move the ball consistently. And you know, Jordan Love's on a roll bet the hot hand.
Tua is also in a role, so its Tyreek Hill. The Miami Dolphins will close us out here with the other Monday night game thirteen point favorites minus one ten or the Miami Dolphins at home against the Titans. Forty seven is the number plus five fifty for the Titans upset. Look, Miami has been all year. They take care of lesser teams. It's beating the big boys where they struggle. So it's just another Miami romp where you just can't stop all
the speed. I mean, moster has fourteen touchdowns already, eight Chan has this is right in HM has six touchdowns in or something in six games. He's played something crazy like that. I gotta look at this that I heard it this morning. I was like, that doesn't even seem right. But Tyree kill the rest of this offense, pat they've been so good. Is this gonna be in just another role to a double digit victory? Yet again?
Oh, I know in the pools where I have to bet this, I'm probably gonna bet the Dolphins. But it's just the number is where it should be and I'm not seeing enough value to bet the Dolphins.
Nine touchdowns in six games, that's what it was for a champ. By the way, in the sixth healthies games he's had, he's at nine touchdowns. Sam, what do you think about this one. You got any love for this game early on?
Yeah, I think I take the Dolphins here too. Derek Henry is in concussion protocol. I doubt he plays. Jeffrey Simmons for the Titans defense.
Got up.
The Titans pasty has been atrocious all year. And you know then now you gotta face the Dolphins, which you have one of the best passing offenses in the league. I'm I don't know how I feel about this Monday night doubleheader, especially with both of them playing at the same time. But eh, whatever, more football.
You go back and forth. I mean, I mean for you guys, it's a little tougher as the Packer fans, but for us general football fans, it's fun. I'll watch Tyreek Hill every time Will Levis has got the ball. That's why I switch back over to the Packer game. That's how I think I'm going to approach this one.
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Tell us who you are in on this week in the NFL. What's your favorite game of the week. I want to hear from you. Drop your comments below and shout out again to brock Perty and the forty nine ers. Yes, stuff the big fat L in my mouth and I will take the L. I will chew on it all the way until on Friday show which will we must be television what Welsh gets to basically rated over me? Which is gonna be fun? You think I was an
Eagles fan, but I'm not. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for Sam and Pat. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.
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