Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. It's v Joey paid Joe Pisap and it's week thirteen in the NFL. It's time to look ahead to the games. And what a fun week end it was and holiday special too. Ooh baby, we nailed the Turkey Day parlay. Andrew Erickson and I hopefully you enjoyed Thanksgiving. Sure to Thanksgiving Nike. Your your bellies were full and your wallets were full, because that was a good one. And I know these two cheeseheads loved the way that
Thanksgiving started off. Sam Hoppin, Pat Fitzmore is joining me today we're gonna break down the games. We've got a shorter slate week thirteen. Everyone's taking some time off for themselves, but not us. No, no, we keep going here on Betting Pros every single chance we get. Don't forget. Make sure you drop a comment below. Subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now. Do it and click that belt to the Coast ding because you can win a
one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros. So go ahead and get in on the action right now. And if you haven't already download that Betting Pros app on iOS, especially because at three free days of premium to check out the goods, and again, if you want to shot a one year of premium for free, drop the comments and you just might get it. Because it's the holiday season, we're doing fun stuff. Pat Fitzmorris Sam, it's great to see you guys. I know you're in a good mood.
You guys are full of packer wins and turkey and assorted other side dishes. But it's time to get back to work, and we've got to start here with Thursday Night football. The Dallas Cowboys coming off a huge performance Dak Prescott sends them to eight and three with four touchdowns. The Seattle Seahawks are six and five after a tough loss to the forty nine ers. They go on the
road to Dallas, where Dallas has been so good at home. Pat, this one is eight and a half right now in the consensus line of betting pros, forty six and a half is the total and the Seattle upset on the money line at plus three fifteen. So Pat, does Dallas continue to roll or is this the perfect short week trap game? As they're looking ahead to their rematch with the Eagles next week.
It does feel a little like a short week trap game, Joe. And you know it was interesting this game open at seven and a half on Sunday night and it's already moved a point toward the Cowboys. I guess people doubt that Seattle can go toe to toe with the top level opponent after the way they play it on Thanksgiving Night against the forty nine ers. But man, I like this as a bounce back spot for Seattle. Like, I don't think they're gonna lay eggs two weeks in a row.
You mentioned it, Dallas. Maybe this is a bit of a look ahead game for them, And I just like, I like getting this many points with Seattle. And I'm even a little a little interested in the money line.
Joe.
It was plus three thirty m DraftKings right before this show, so I might just do a little something on the money line, but a nice one or two unit bet on Seattle.
I think you are braver than I am. I'm not there on the money line, but I am there with Seattle in the points. Sam, I'm curious to see where you land because this number has moved overnight an extra point there, as Pat was telling us, and to me, as somebody who's been backing down, especially Dallas at home, it feels a little weird to be a little gun shy on them. But I feel like Seattle's the right side of this game to be on. I think the Cowboys win. I think Seattle might keep this one a
little closer. But what do you think is Seattle really just overmatched yar by Dallas?
I think they are. I mean, if you look at the way that Seattle's offense has performed the last four weeks, their success rate EPA, per drive, passing EPAER P play, all these advanced stats are just in the bottom eight of the league. And Dallas continues to be just a powerhouse. I think they have what six twenty plus point victories this year, like they are beating up on the inferior
opponents that they play. And while I wouldn't consider Seattle in the class of teams like Washington, they just haven't looked like a competitive team the last several weeks. I mean, they eked out a win against the excuse me, the Browns a couple of weeks ago, and Dallas has I think an opportunity if they get out to an early lead to just put them away. They are second in the league in pressure rate over the past four weeks, first overall on the season. They've been blitzing a ton
as well, and Gino's been okay against the blitz. But I just think there's too much firepower on the Cowboys side of things. Dak is playing at an MVP level right now, so I struggle to take Dallas with that many points. I mean again, I think if I were to approach this game, I'd rather stretch that out even more to maybe twelve thirteen points on an alternate line, just because of the way they have been playing. Like I said, but I probably don't have a current lean on this game right now.
All right, let's go to the next one here on the list. Let's go to the Sunday games. Kicking things off here with the Indianapolis game against Tennessee Titans. They're going to travel to Tennessee. They are two point favorites on the in Tennessee. Are the Colts forty two and a half is the number plus one ten if you like the Titans on the money line, Sam, this one to me feels about right. If anything, I'm looking towards
the under potentially in this game. I just still even though you know Will Evis will be at home and Derek Henry had a good game, it still feels to me like that offense has its issues, and I think we can agree on that. The question is can the Colts defense continue to suppress the opposing offenses of teams like the Tennessee Titans. I'm leaving the under that's the most attractive thing to me here, But anything really PopEd to you in this one?
Yeah, the under is one thing that did pop out to me. Tennessee is by far one of the slowest paced teams in the league. They tend to run the ball a ton, especially with Derrick Henry, which keeps the clock moving as they're going. I typically do love Colts and overs because they are one of the fastest paced teams. But I think in this matchup, when Gardner Minshew, he's played well, but I think still has a wide range of outcome, has a chance to, you know, keep this
game close and keep it towards the under. I want to I want to bet on the Colts. I think I'd rather play them on the money line than with the put in a half or two points, But I think the under is the right play for right now.
Pat, do you agree here that the under might be the most appealing early value here on this game.
I'm not really interested in it, Joe, Like I agree that. I don't know, Maybe it's the slightly percentage better percentage play than the over, but I don't really like the total in this one. Part of it is that Gardner Minshew has faced this murder's row of pass defenses in
his seven starts this year, like Ravens, Browns, Jaguars. I think he's faced four top ten teams in pass defense DVA, and every team he's faced in his seven starts has been top twenty one, So like, this is the first time he's facing a team that's ranked like near the bottom of the league in pass defense. The Titans are twenty eighth.
So.
Maybe he does a little bit more business than he's been doing recently. And yeah, boy, I don't really like either side of the total here, Joe, and I don't like either side, Like I just I can't go against.
Mike stay stay away Pas.
Yeah, I can't go against rabel as a you know, like a home dog against a respectable but not like truly good team. Like I just you know, it's a good thing. I've given up betting Colts games, Joe, because I don't want to touch this one.
That's a good it's a good practice. I think, go ahead, sev.
Pat, you mentioned Vrabel at home. I mean, I think Shane Steiken should easily be in the Coach of the Year conversation right now. I mean with what he's done with the Colts. I mean, if the season ends today, the Colts are in the playoffs as a wildcard team after their number one quarterback went down, the their fourth overall pick in the draft, and probably possibly one of the worst rosters in the league heading into this season.
I think at this point Stiken probably has the coaching advantage over Mike Rabel.
Yeah, it's funny. Sam is echoing everything I just talked about with Pat on the Fantasy Pro Show this morning too, which is how much I'm gonna love the Colts next year because I love Stich and I love Anthony Richardson, I love the jt is in the fold like, I'm gonna be very in on the Colts in twenty twenty four, but this week, in Week thirteen, if that money line was a little bigger. If you were giving me like plus two to ten on the Titans, then I'm listening.
But right now the plus one ten, I'm just looking the under Let's look to the Los Angeles Chargers, who are chasing their tail to the New England Patriots they go, who are chasing the number one overall pick in this year's upcoming NFL Draft. New England is six point home underdogs in this one. Maybe that's too much. I don't know. Forty and a half is the number plus two to ten on the New England Patriots money line. Oh, pat This is a tricky one here. Confidence in the Chargers
is hard to come by, especially where I stand. I was right, though, however, about the Baltimore Ravens not being favored by enough in that game on Sunday Night, despite the fact it was a thrilling contest by any stretch of the means. But this is a tough one here, because the Patriots offense is having all sorts of problems. They can't move the football, the Chargers coming up with a very low total in their game this past Sunday night,
So what do you make of this? From an early Lion standpoint, is there any value at all?
I don't know, Joe. I'm pretty repulsed, to be honest with you. And the first thing that struck me is, just like, the Chargers is a six point road favorite.
Really again, what world are we living in now?
Traveling cross country for an early start? So I mean, I'm leaning Patriots here, as grotesque as that feels, Joe like. And we've seen the Patriots legs at home, although they did manage to knock off Buffalo at home, so uh, man Like, as little confidence as I have in this Patriots offense, I think I'm gonna take them in the points this week because I just I can't wrap my head around this starcrossed Charger team being favored by almost
a touchdown on the road. It just my head cannot get around this.
I understand, Sam, I don't know if you want to echo the sentiments of pat here, but this is really tough because you have this weird rotation at quarterback here. It feels like everything in New English is imploding on itself and the Chargers are right there with them, So that becomes very difficult to kind of figure out a side to take in this game. But do you have one, I don't.
I mean, I think I made this game New England plus four when I was first looking at it, So getting six points theoretically should mean I should be taking the Patriots here, But it's so tough. I mean, the quarterback play is so abysmal for the Patriots, whether it's Mac Jones or Bailey ZAPPI. I do think that this could present a potential live betting opportunity with the Chargers, depending on how they come out of the gate. The
Patriots rush defense has been exceptional all year. They have the number one ranked rush defense in terms of EPA per play and success rate. So if the Chargers do come out passing the ball, then I'd be more inclined to start adding some Chargers lines to my portfolio, but without knowing what they're going to do, because again, they still have Austin Eckler, who theoretically is a good running back. But I think it's better for fantasy than as an
actual running back at this point. But I'm not touching this right now.
Yeah, the live one is an interesting wager there, and look process tells you. I agree, the Patriots probably the side to be on, but it feels really hard to be confident about that after what we've seen the last few weeks from them. The Detroit Lions coming off a tough Thanksgiving Day loss eight and three. They are now going against the five and six New Orleans Saints. This one's in New Orleans. Detroit is still three and a half point favorites in this one at minus one to wait,
that's the consensus lineup betting pros. Forty five and a half is the total, and you've got plus one sixty on New warwins to win. Now, that Latimore injury was a bad one, obviously, the missed himless last week. Also a Lave getting hurt, Shaheed getting hurt, Sam A lot of injuries here for the Saints. I would jump on this Detroit line now at three and a half because I feel like over the week this one's gonna grow.
This is one of my favorite early ones. And you are nod in your head, so it feels like Sammy ballgame is with me. Let's preach, let's go.
Yes. I mean you listed all of the injuries. Michael Thomas was put on IR before this game. Chris A Lave left with the concussion rashoot Chahe left the game with a thigh injury, like they're they're down to Lynn Bowden and At Perry as their top receiving options. Now, I think Chris o'lave probably has a decent chance to play in this game. But Cam Jordan also left with
a shin injury in the game. I mean, I don't know what you've seen from the Saints that makes you think they're they're gonna be able to keep it close in this point. I think you're buying Detroit at a sort of a low point, and after an embarrassing loss on Thanksgiving. They excuse me, went for it on fourth down a bunch of times in that game, obviously, and it didn't go their way. But if some of those do, then there's a chance that they come away with that victory.
I think the Lions too, have a massive, massive coaching advantage. I think Dan Campbell is much better than Dennis Allen. So I couldn't have gotten on this Detroit Lions line quicker this morning.
Yeah, I'm with you, Sam Pat. This also feels like, you know, I think the secret sauce there too was the pass rush that the Packers got on Jared Goff. He was just looking for his life running around all day long there trying to avoid that. I'm not sure necessarily that New Orleans is capable putting that kind of pressure on them. And I know it's a road game, and I know we should be, you know, maybe theoretically
a little bit more respectful of New Orleans. But with all the injuries, with all the circumstances, and plus coming off that bad, embarrassing loss, was some extra time to prepare. I'm with Sam, I am all in here early because I think this three and a half easily gets to four and a half or maybe even five and a half by the time we get to Sunday.
I'm with you, guys, I've already bet the Lions, not only all the injuries that you mentioned, Joe, you said it the extra prep time and the fact that the Lions obviously have a bad taste in their mouth, like losing to the Packers at home in a game that
everyone in America's was watching basically, so they're motivated. And can I interest you guys in the under in this game, Like the total move from forty four and a half to forty five and a half, it's gone up a point and I kind of like the under because the Saints don't have much of a running game at all, and while we have seen teams carve up the Lions
through the air lately, including the Packers. I might add Derek Carr has been having all sorts of trouble getting the ball into the end zone, like he is just not able to seal the deal once the Saints get inside the red zone or even inside the thirty to be honest. So plus like, yeah, maybe Dennis Allen is the inferior head coach here, but I do have a lot of faith in Dennis Allen defensively getting it done.
The Saints are still a pretty good defensive team even without Marshawn Latimar, so I don't think the Lions are gonna go crazy offensively. So I sort of like the Lions and the under in this one.
By the way, since we started the show, this number has already moved on FanDuel at least it's up to four and a half. So there you have it. Everybody. Everybody seems to agree, So get in as soon as you can on this one before it gets out of control. Next one here, the unlikely seven to four Pittsburgh Steelers will be at home. They are five and a half point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Right now, the number for this game and consensus is forty, which feels about
right to me. Plus two hundred for Arizona and the upset. The Cardinals really struggled yesterday against the Rams pat I imagine they will struggle on the road here against Pittsburgh. I know with Matt Canada gone, there's a new excitement here with the offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the first four hundred yards of offense they've had in four seasons. But still looking at the Pittsburgh Steelers is five and a half too much.
It might be Joe. Every time I feel confidence in the Steelers, I met them and they burn me severely. So I'm not really interested in either side here. I'm kind of interested in the over though. Like the Steelers average six point two yards per play in their first game without Matt Canada as the play caller. They look pretty good on offense, like didn't score as many points as they should have given that they were over four
hundred yards of offense. And like this Arizona offense is spunky two with Kyler Murray, so I think We're going to see more than thirty nine and a half or forty points in this one. But I don't really like either side.
Sam. I'm confident in the Steelers victory, but I'm just not confident in the five and a half. Can you get me there?
No, I can't. I took the Cardinals with those with the points this morning. I mean, I think it's the better quarterback getting the points. Can he Pickett? His hist not played well this year, despite him having probably his best game this past week against the Bengals, But the fact that they came away with a single digit win against a team starting kind of can't remember the Bengals
quarterback name, but it's Browning, Yeah, Browning. Like I think with this lower total too, there's a chance that the Cardinals keep it close. They have been pretty successful rushing the ball with Kyler Murray and James Connor back as well. So give me Arizona with the points here.
Yeah, that forty I don't care for. But the Arizona side is where I'm leading to. This next one's one of my favorite early ones. I want to jump on this one. The Atlanta Falcons traveled to New York. They are two and a half point favorites. There thirty four is the number for this game. If you like the Jets for the upset, it's plus one twenty on the
consensus Betting Pros line. And again, don't forget to download the Betting Pros app and make sure you're using it so you can make sure you tracking all of these Use the game notifications so you know what's going on with the line alerts, so you know exactly when these lines all move, because that is crucial. It's not just
what games to bet, it's when to bet them. And it feels like Sam after finally weeks and weeks months of torture of waiting for Bijon Robinson to just touch the football as much as humanly possible, we're starting to get more of that. That confidence in Bijon is why I am confident in the Falcons. I think the Falcons defense is pretty good. I think the Jets' quarterback play is absolutely atrocious. There's no way out of it. It's a downward spiral to hell for the New York Jets
quarterback situation. I'm in on the Falcons on the road. Not something I say very often, but where are you for this game?
Joe, you might have been the first person to use the word confident and Falcons in the same sentence.
This end road. Don't forget the road part.
I mean, as far as I can tell, like, they could throw this game on Friday afternoon again and just sort of skip acid. But the Jets defense is undoubtedly the best unit in this game. I think, god thirty four and a half point total is just it's so low. Desmond Ritter has struggled. I mean, between him and Derek Carr on Sunday, they were just having a battle to see who could play worse in the red zone. So
I kind of like the Jets here. I mean, I think I'd prefer to tease them out to eight and a half points, especially again with such a low total. I think Tim Boyle, who I believe they already announced would be the starter for this game, will have slightly better success being able to move the ball against the Falcons than the Miami Dolphins. The Jets do have a slight rest advantage here, so if I'm gon to my head choosing a side, it's teasing the Jets out with something else.
I feel like the Falcons smell winning this division now after that win against the Saints. I think they recognize that this is a tough matchup against the Jets here. But the Jets offense, I think, is just going to make mistakes that are going to hand this game over to the Falcons, whether it be interceptions, fumbles, short fields.
I think they're going to present the Falcons with a w and as long as they keep the ball in Jon Robinson's hands more than Desmond Ritters, I think they should come out with a victory.
But Pat, what do you think could be Joe did you did you say you were excited about this game?
Because I'm excited to bet this game. Not to watch this game, I'm not going to watch it if I can avoid it.
Yeah, if I watch this, it's gonna because my eyes are pride open, clockwork orange style and I'm being forced to. I think I'd rather watch one of those electric football games where you turn it on to the board vibrators or flyers goals, more entertaining football than this game is going to.
Actually, what the Jets offense looks like people is debrating randomly on the field and no direction whatsoever.
Yeah, I just I wish I could have your level of confidence in Arthur Smith's offense against the Jets defense, and I'm kind of kick I'm not gonna bet either side. I just don't like either side of this. I wish I had taken the under when it was thirty five on Sunday Night on DraftKings.
Now it's thirty four on DraftKings.
I might still have to just grab it at thirty four and a half on FanDuel, because yeah, this game is going to be I can't see this game getting to thirty points, like, I just can't.
The postgame press conferences locally after the game here, I watched a bunch of them because I live in the New York area. This feels like a team that has done. They are They sound done. They are sound that they're over it. The Jets sound like, you know, I got no answers. They've got no answers. They're four and seven, and I think the Falcons are like, hey, we are in this thing, let's go. And I think it goes back to some of those teams like who needs the
game more. I think the Falcons need it. They smell it. I think they're gonna come out with a w you know, minus one forty five is a little too much juice here, So I'll take the two and a half at minus one fourteen because I think they can win by a field goal. Miami try to Washington. Washington always gets up pat for the bigger opponents, so I mean they didn't get up for Thanksgiving, but you know that's that's a different story. They will be at home against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are nine and a half point favorites. Fifty is the number for this game, plus three fifty on the money line for Washington pat. Do you see any early value in this one?
Oh?
Man, I don't chow.
I mean, nine and a half seems like a lot of points to give a home team with a spunky passing game. But man, the Dolphins could just pour on the points on this Washington pass defense. Like Tyreek Hill and Jalen Willer are just gonna go berzerk in this game. So if anything, I might bet the over here. Nine and a half points is just too much for me. But I can't bet Washington either.
That's the hard part. I'm going to rock in a hard place with this game, too. Sam. Maybe you've got some stats from the laboratory to help give us some clarity. Because I think Pat and I need some here.
Yeah, for me, I'm probably betting to underhear. The Miami Dolphins are struggling with some injuries. They lost Jalen Phillips, which is just a huge, huge loss. Javon Hollins got hurt in the game. Toront Armstead is week to week, so nothing to like the offensive playmakers, which obviously drives this team, but just a couple a number of key players who could and likely will miss this game. Now, the reason I like the under is because these are two of the again slowest paced teams in the league.
They both rank in the bottom eight ins neutral script seconds per play. They both use no huddle at the bottom five rate in the league. So it as good as these offenses have shown they can be. I mean, obviously the Dolphins have one of the best explosive play rates in the league this year. I just think they
both sort of play it super slow. I think, you know, we get something like the Dolphins potentially playing against the Jets, where they just have some of these longer drives that take five to six seven minutes and are able to salt away a lead and with a fifteen and a half point total you need a lot to go right. You can't have, you know, any of these red zone turnovers things like that. So I'd bet the under here, and that's that's how I'd play it right.
Now, all right, last of the one o'clock games. The Denver Broncos keep grinding out victories the last few weeks. They are now six and five. Quite a turnaround for Russell Wilson, quite turn around for this defense. They are three point underdogs as they travel to Houston coming off a tough loss to the Jaguars. You know, Houston showed
some of their inexperience. I think in that game. It's a moments some of the play calling suspect, especially that fourth and one late in the game, you know, trying to throw the ball fifteen yards downfield a Dalton Schultz when all they needed was one. I just I did not care for that. I thought that was a bad play call and it did come back to haunt them
later in that game by that missfield goal. Forty six and a half is the number for this one plus one four for Denver on the money line, Sam, this is an interesting one here because I think all of us immediately will go to Houston you know, Houston's been a very solid team. Stroud has played great. Yes it was a disappointing week, they bounce back. But the Denver Broncos have been very formidable. They have been, like I said,
grinding out victories. Can they grind out another one here at plus one forty?
I think they've got a chance to so. They obviously allowed the seventy points to the Dolphins all the way back and I think it was week three or four. In the Broncos five game winning streak that they have going on, they've allowed just eighty total points on defense, and that's an average about sixteen per game. Now. I think again, this is similar to the Chargers line I mentioned earlier of how does the how do the Broncos play this game? Early on? Because they have the sixth
lowest pass right over expectation this year. If they run the ball against this Texans defense, which is fifth and epa per play a rush allowed fifth or excuse me fourth in rushing success rate allowed, then I think the Texans are going to have a great chance to win. Russell Wilson has made some good throws. I mean, doesn't look like he's playing nearly as bad as he was last year, but I think CJ. Stroud will be able
to take advantage of this Broncos defense as well. They are excuse me, the Broncos are blitzing a ton, but c J. Stroud has a seventy eight and a half PFF grade against the blitz this year, which is eighth highst in the league. I think they'll They'll probably get Noel Brown back in this game. I just continue to buy into the the Houston Texans and c J. Stroud there the call of this my fandom or just loving
what they're doing this year. I agree that that third and third and one and then fourth and one play call was that was very suspect, just knowing what they sort of needed. But overall, I think this team in general is just much much better than the Broncos, and it's going to play out this way.
All right, Pat, how do you think this one plays out? To me? I keep going to the individuals. I've been betting the over on the cch strout passing yards every week pretty much, and it's worked three of the last four times for me. The Tankdale anytime touchdown score. I'm looking more of the individuals for this game because I think this one is really tough to gauge, but this is a game I do want to watch in the
one o'clock hour. So how about you? What do you think about this contest between the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos.
I actually love the Broncos here, Joe and I can understand that, like if Houston is a fun team, I get why Sam loves them. I love them too, like they have been like the surprise enjoyable team to watch the twenty twenty three season. But they are over valued in the betting markets now and have been for weeks. And that's why I smashed the Jaguars last week, and I'm going to smash the Broncos this week. And this opened at Houston minus three, and it's all already moved
towards the Texans at minus three and a half. The Broncos have won five straight, as Sam mentioned earlier, and it's not like that has been a cupcake, but they they beat the Bills and Chiefs as part of that win streak, and like their defense is tightened up considerably, they can still be had a little bit on the run, but they've gotten much tougher against the pass, so I
think they might actually match up pretty well. You know, Sam mentioned like blitzing C. J. Stroud is a little dangerous, But I do think they can slow down this Texans pass offense. I think the Broncos getting three and a half are a nice bet.
All right, let's move to the next one here at four o'clock game Tampa Bay at four to seven will host the Carolina Panthers one to ten with a new head coach. Because Frank Reich is out, Tampa is six point favorites in this game. Thirty seven and a half is the number and plus two fifteen on the Panthers' money line. Now, oftentimes beat when the head coach gets fired, I run right to bet the money line on that team.
I'm not doing that this week. I think. You know, Tampa has had some ups and downs in these last few weeks. They've been respectable. They've been competitive. They're good upfront, which is the one thing I keep coming back to, which is where obviously the deficit of the Carolina Panthers lies. So do you think that they get any balance out of this Frank right firing? Do you think the six is too many points? What do you think about Tampa and the Panthers.
I don't think we see the fired coach bounce Joe. It does not feel like Ding dong the Witch is Dead type situation like we saw with the Raiders and Josh McDaniel. Like this does not have that same feel to it. I can't lay five points with the Buccaneers and you know this one open, it's set like I just.
Can't do that.
But I don't want to bet the Panthers either, especially when I have so much concerns about their ability to block the Buccaneers front. So I'm just staying away from this one.
How about you, Sam? Do you see any early value on this one?
So I actually kind of like the Panthers on the money line, and it's there's a couple of reasons for that you're leaning into this variance. We have a lot of unknowns in this game, obviously with the Panthers and the coaching side of things, sort of what they're going to end up doing without Frank Reich. But on the
buccaneer side of the ball, Baker Mayfield got banged up. Now, we did just get news that the MRI on his ankle was negative for ligament damage, which is good, but there's a chance he potentially could sit out this game. And then you've got Kyle Trask, who still might be
a better quarterback than Bryce Young at this point. But there It's what I think I would consider a high entropy game, a game in which there could be a lot of different ways for this to play out, and you're just sort of buying into the variants and targeting the plus money outcome to hopefully again get the benefit if there is a lot of variants. So it's not it has nothing to do with liking the Panthers or
anything that they've doing. It's more so just a percentage play and hoping that you land on the right side of the variants. With the Panthers all.
Right, Well, the Eagles have continued to land on the right side of the variants. Every close game they tend to come out with a victory. They're ten and one there at home. They're taking on the San Francisco forty nine ers in a big time NFC matchup, and man,
the Eagles have been running this gauntlet. They are beating the Chiefs, They've beaten the Bills, they beat the Cowboys, They've now have the San Francisco forty nine Ers and the Cowboys again in the schedule is the toughest there is, and yet with all these victories, they are underdogs in their own building. Sam, I understand the forty nine Ers have played really well in the last few weeks. I get that. I think that the Eagles are going to take this. Personally, I like the plus one twenty on
the money line for the Eagles. Forty six and a half is the number? Tell me I'm wrong, Sam, I want to hear this conversation. What do you think about forty nine Ers Eagles? Which is the marquee matchup of the day.
For sure, this is gonna be a great game. I'm really looking forward to it. If you use two to one and a half points as home field advantage, this line would suggest that the forty nine Ers are about three and a half or four points better than the Eagles on a neutral field. Now Impredictable, which uses past performances and and upcoming betting lines to come up with team power ratings, actually says that that's about right. But that feels like a lot to me, So I think
I would lean with the Eagles now. Lane Johnson missed the game yesterday against the Buffalo Bills. I think Philadelphia might need him to have a good chance because Nick Bosa lines up almost exclusively right across from right tackles. So I think this is a game where again I
want to take the home dog in Philadelphia. But I'm waiting a little bit to get some positive news on Lane Johnson because while I don't think he truly moves the market that much from a point spread perspective, I do think it could change the outcome of the game.
Pat Fletcher Cox also had that groin injury. That's a big piece if you don't have that upfront. The Eagles are just so good on both sides of the ball up front, and I think that's you know, at the end of the day, we could talk all we want about all the evolution of the NFL, but that's still what wins football games in a lot of ways, and Hurts has been outstanding. Hurts to me is the MVP, and I don't know why he's not getting enough hype for it. Maybe he is. He's pretty high up on
the board. But Pat, how do you see this one? This is the game everybody wants to see. I've been on the Eagles the last few weeks, I've been making money on the money line. I feel like the Eagles take this one personally, and I think they see that by sitting out there and they win this game, they know they've pretty much locked up that buy and I think that is a huge thing. And there's only one of those teams now in the last few years that gets that.
Yeah, and you mentioned how the Eagles have been fighting their way through tough competition, Joe. I mean, it wasn't that long ago that the forty nine were in a three game losing streak and now they're favorite in Philly. And when I saw this open up as the forty nine Ers being one and a half point favorites on Sunday night, I kind of thought that by today that line would move a little bit more towards the Eagles. No,
it actually went up to two and a half. Like, it's not moving in the direction I thought it was gonna move. I do understand that the forty nine Ers can probably throw a heavier punch than any team in the NFL right now, Like when that offense is clicking, they are just basically impossible to stop. But at the same time, like we saw the forty nine Ers defense look pretty dreadful during that losing streak, especially that game against the Vikings. If their pass rush doesn't get home.
And you know, if Lane Johnson is okay, this Eagles offensive line is pretty terrific and can maybe handle that pass rush. Like AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith can definitely do business against the forty nine ers cornerback. So, yes, the forty nine can land a heavy punch, but that doesn't mean they can't get out boxed by another really good team.
Look, color me skeptical too. You beat up on the Seahawks, you beat up on the Buccaneers. It beat up on the Jaguars defense, their secondary, Like, yeah, okay, that's great. This is the Eagles now, this is the team that went to the super Bowl. This is a team that's ten and one. I just don't think they're getting enough respect right now. I don't know what they've got to do to earn it. The pass rush is ferocious, I
get it. I'm also still skeptical that Brock Party can go into a hostile building and go win you a big game. I want to see that. I have not seen that yet really happen. I mean, a real hostile building, because Philly is a hostile environment. Just ask all those Bills players. They'll pushing away fans. Let's get to the next one here on this docket, maybe a little less exciting. The Cleveland Browns, I don't know. Seven to four going against the five and six Los Angeles Rams. This one's
in LA. The Rams are four and a half point favorites in this game. Thirty nine and a half is the number plus one eighty for Cleveland on the victory on certain here with the quarterback situation again, a DTR will wait to hear more clarity on him. Maybe we get PJ. Walker, But I don't know, Pat, does this seem odd to you? How is this Cleveland this far away? In plus four and a half? I want the Cleveland side of this game.
Yeah, it's just because the Browns offense is so dreadful with the quarterback situation, Joe, Like, that's it, And that's that's why I'm not really interested in either side of this game. I'm mildly interested in the under though, because that Brown's offense is so dreadful, and because the Browns defense is still very legit. Although I kind of want to see what's up with Miles Garrett since he appeared to be injured in that game, like he you know,
just didn't seem like he was fully healthy. So I want to see if he shows up on the injury report. If he does not, then you can definitely interest me in the under.
Under sounds good to me too. Look, defense travels, you run the football no matter who's playing quarterback. PJ. Walker has been competitive in some of these games. I don't have too many questions here, Like, I just think four and a half has too many points and too much respect for the Rams just because they beat up on the Arizona Cardinals. Sam, do you see things differently?
I don't, But I still struggle to buy into the Browns. This is one I don't have much of a lenon right now. It's just that, not that there's a lot of unknowns. I just can't get a read on what these two much are. Again. Yeah, I mean, like the Rams. The Rams have been sort of all over the place this year in terms of their offensive performances. We know what the Browns are on offense and defense, which I guess is contract to my point, but it's still I'd just want to stay away.
All right, let's get to the primetime games. Kansas City eight and three travels to Green Bay to take on the Packers. They are six and a half point favorites at minus one twelve forty. Two and a half is the number. Green Bay is plus two forty on the money line. All right, so Packers big win extra time? Does it matter? Is the six and a half safe here for the Chiefs? Sam?
I think so. I I want to buy into the Packers because Jordan Love has played pretty well the last four weeks. Since Week nine, he ranks third in EPA per play, seventh in success rate, seventh in completion percentage over expectation, and seventh in PFF grade. So he is playing much much better. Like he looks a lot more comfortable in the pocket when he's getting pressured. That said, it's been two games against the Chargers and the Lions, which have some pretty bad defenses. The Chiefs still have
one of the best defenses in the league. I think the Chiefs offense, despite a couple of drops again in the game against Las Vegas, found their footing a little bit. I think they'll be able to run on this Packers defense, which got gashed on the ground once again. Against Detroit, and I think again, with the Packers' zone heavy scheme, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey will just be able to take advantage of it.
A ton pat your thoughts on Green Bay case.
The difference between the six and a half points this is sitting at now in the seven points it opened at is pretty monumental. I was mildly interested in the Packers at seven points, Joe, but at six and a half, I just can't do it. It's something of a revenge game for Jordan love because when he made his first NFL start two years ago, it was in Kansas City when Aaron Rodgers had COVID nineteen. It was very ugly and the Packers defense actually overachieved and threw a blanket
on Patrick Mahomes that game. But Jordan Love like couldn't even pick up a first down that game, so the Packers lost a low scoring rock fight. I think we'll see more offense in this one, and I think the over is somewhat interesting, But man, I don't see value in either side.
Quite honestly, I see value with the six and a half on casey give me, give me the Chiefs here to figure things out. They started off slow against the Raiders and they figured things out. I just think that's where they are. I think they're just kind of one of these teams that's just kind of floating around there. They know how good they are, and you know, sometimes they're not good enough and sometimes they don't execute enough.
Now that pass rush in Green Bay, if they can bring that what they brought over a Jared Goff to Mahomes, that's gonna be interesting. So we'll keep an eye on that. But right now, I'm confident with a six and a half on Casey last one here. Maybe this would have been a lot more fun a few weeks ago theoretically than it is now. The Jacksonville Jaguars at home eight and three taking on the Bengals of five and six. Joe Burrow set to have his surgery today, so we're
not gonna have him obviously the rest of season. But the eight points is the total is the number here? Excuse me? The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored by it's a pretty good sized number for the Jags coming off a huge win. Thirty nine is the over under plus three hundred for the Bengals. Upset your thoughts, pat On this game is eight too much or just about right.
Just about right. I don't see any value in this. Jaguars are a really good team. It's said that we're not getting a Joe Burrow Trevor Lawrence matchup that would have been fantastic. The line seems right. I just I feel sorry for the Bengals and having to go into this game without their their swaggy QB. So I don't think I'm gonna touch this one.
Sam, you touching this Monday Night contest?
I'm not. The Jacksonville Jaguars are obviously been a very good team this year, currently in contention for the number one seed, which would make my bank account very happy. But the Jaguars just like haven't totally been able to put teams away. They had to blow out win against the Titans a couple of weeks ago, but just a ten point win over the Steelers, a seven point win over New Orleans like They're just it doesn't seem like
they're totally equipped to put teams away. They have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, so if they are passing the ball a ton, and I think that's where one of the bigger weaknesses for Cincinnati's defenses, then for sure. I love the Jaguars, but I'm not sure that that's going to be the case this Sunday, so excuse me next Monday. So I'm staying away from this one as well.
I like the individuals in this game. I like the ATN overs. Whatever they're going to put them at doesn't matter, I'm going over. I like the Calvin Ridley anytime touchdown score too. He has been read hot the last few weeks. I like that trend. Finally, it seems like things are going in the right direction after a lot of concern. But look for all these picks, whether it's earlier or late, make them count. Go join our NFL contest at bettingpros
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