Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pizapeta and happy Thanksgiving week everybody. It's week twelve. That means we've got wall to wall football every day of the week. You want games on Thursday, and we'll give you game on Thursday. About Black Friday, we want a Black Friday game, Sure we'll get you that. We'll get you games on Sunday, Monday.
Everything forget it, all the football, all the food, all the leftovers, everything you can handle them, of course, to help me break it all down as Pat fitz Morris, my Patty Cakes and of course Sam Hopping as well the mad scientists in the data lab. A little break from the NBA and all the other things to do and talk a little football here for Sam. And don't forget everybody. We're still giving away free stuff. So if you want a premium upgrade to Betting Pros, now is
the time to do it. Make sure you drop your comments below, subscribe to the channel. Click that belt it goes dings. You know every time a piece of content drops, and if you're the big winner, that's how we're going to notify you, so subscribe. Like the show. Be nice, it's Thanksgiving, drop a little comment, and you can always give us a review as well. That's always appreciated. If you're listening to the podcast wherever you get your pods, drop a nice five star review. It's the holiday scenes
and it's time to do nice things. And let's start, boys with the Thanksgiving games, because we've got some fun ones here. The Green Bay Packers coming off a big victory. I know you two very excited, and let me start there because I am angry. I promised that I would lose my mind here on the show about the Chargers last week, boys, I said, I'm confident in the Chargers, and I felt dirty and wrong, and I was wrong. It sucked. I'm mad. I'm mad at Brandon Staley, I'm
mad at the Chargers. I'm mad at the city of Los Angeles, the whole thing. It was terrible, no good. But the Green Bay Packers were good enough. They are going to be underdogs though when they go to Detroit. Troit's now eight and two after another big victory against the Bears at home. This one's in Detroit. Seven and a half is the number here on the Detroit side. Forty six and a half over is the consensus line you're getting on betting pros, and plus two eighty five
for the upset. Sam let's start with you on this one here, because I already got to talk to fits about the Packers more this morning on our FP show. I want to talk to you about the Packers. What you saw. Obviously, Aaron Jones highly unlikely to play in this game. I think we can all agree on that. So what does this mean here for this number of
the seven and a half? And do you put any sort of stock in what Andrew Erickson's been saying for a few weeks now, which is ford Field might as well be called Corsfield.
I don't know if I understand that reference, but as far as.
The baseball reference, it means a lot of scoring. There you go. I found the one spot there, the one sport here where Sammy is not is up to speed.
Right. This is human, but it was pretty far out of left field, and I wasn't quite quite expecting it. But in any case, the Aaron Jones interest injury is interesting. I think the way that Green Bay wins this game is attacking the lines through the air. That's part of the probably the weakest part of their defense, and I think that's honestly good because aj Dillon might be the only running back available for the Packers in this game. Their third string running back also got injured on Sunday.
But I do think that Detroit, especially after the lesson inspiring outing from Jared Goff with three interceptions, is going to lean into the run, which has been a struggle for green Bay to stop. They allow a five point three percent explosive rush rate this year, which is the fourth worst in the league. Detroit has a negative ten percent pass right over expectation in two of their last
three games. Detroit, I think has the coaching advantage in this game, so I expect Detroit to just sort of play a little easier run the ball with Montgomery and Gibbs and come away with this. If they're going to limit, if they're able to limit green Bay to a couple of three and out drives and then just pound the clock by running the ball, then I expect Detroit to be able to cover this. I had Detroit min Is state for my numbers that it's at seven and a half right now, So I'm I'm leaning Detroit.
Yeah, I'm on the Detroit lean as well. Pat, how about you. I just feel like Detroit sort of smells that they can win this division and lock things up, and this is a big game for them in order to really solidify them at the top of that North.
Oh.
If I was going to bet Detroit, and I'm kind of leaning that way myself, I would want him at seven.
Man, I do not like seven and a half.
So you know, it's funny if you look at Massy Peabody rankings, which.
Are a very useful tool for betters.
By the way, Massy Peabody had the Alliance as being not quite three points better than the Packers on a neutral field as of going into week eleven, So it seems like based on that there might be value on the Packers. I don't really buy it. I think what I'm going to do is play the over Joe. You made the cores field reference it might be apt here, and especially the way this game sets up, the Packers are going to have to lean on their passing game.
With no Aaron Jones a forty five and a half, it seems kind of a high total for the Packers, who are slow paced and not exactly explosive on offense, but they're gonna be forced to throw, and we know they don't defend the run well and the Lions might be able to just run it down their throat. So yeah, over is my leaning here, not real interest in either side.
And then numbers already jumping up to forty six and a half and some spots. Still okay with that one.
Just yeah, I think so I'd played up to forty all right, six and a half forty seven.
Maybe let's get.
To the next one here, the Dallas Cowboys seven and three are hosting the Washington Commanders who lost to the Giants. God what, let's not even get to that. Let's let's talk about instead. The numbers, of course is double digits minus eleven here for the Dallas Cowboys at home minus one ten. The consensus line of betting pros is forty eight and a half plus four to twenty five for the Washington upset. I know we always get Sam Howell plays up and down to the competition. This is one
of the play up to the competition. So pat do you think he plays up to the competition and somehow keeps this within the eleven or do you think the Cowboys continue at home to just look like an offensive juggernaut, which they have here ever since the buye.
The Ladder Joe.
I think the Cowboys have done really well against lesser competition. They are four and one against the spread against teams who they've been favored by at least six points against, and that doesn't even even include their forty to nothing shall lacking of the Giants in Week one, where they were only favored by three and a half. So yeah, I mean, I'm I'm gonna bet the Cowboys here to you know, put Washington away. I mean, Washington showed their
true colors against the Giants. They were just terrible in Week eleven. And it seems like this total is pretty tall too, because I'm not sure if the Commanders are going to do their part to push this game over against that Dallas defense. And I mean, by the way, like the total jump from forty seven and a half on Sunday night to forty eight and a half on Monday morning, Like I don't understand that. So like I
like the under a lot, I like getting that extra point. Yeah, unless Dallas puts up a forty burger on the Commanders, I don't see this one going over.
That's the question, like if do they put up thirty five? If they put up thirty five, Sam to me, I think the forty eight and a half as well within range. I think the Washington do their part in that. But is there a certain aspect of this game that has you interested in the early value?
Definitely taking Dallas with the points. They have six wins this year by at least twenty points, which is just absurd. Washington had did have six turnovers against the Giants this past week, which is why I am now knocked out of the survivor league that I was in. The Washington rushing defense has played pretty decent lately. They haven't allowed a success rate over forty percent since week eight. The
problem is Dallas is throwing a ton. They have a sixty four point two percent neutral script pass right over the last four weeks. Dak is just dealing. He is going to carve up this Washington secondary more than the turkey is going to be carved up in the kitchen.
There you go, all right, let's go to the night game here San Francisco looking great. They're to go on the road at seven and three. There seven point favorites there in Seattle. Now Gino Smith unlikely to play probably in this game at this point, dealing with that Tricep injury and that tough loss there to the Rams. Forty two and a half is the number at minus one ten the consensus line of VP for the Seattle upset,
it's plus two to fifty. Sam, do we see the forty nine ers just continue to roll because it feels like coming out of that buy this is a rejuvenated San Francisco team and that pass rush now with Bosa and Chase on either side, is pretty ferocious. And Seattle not only down Gino but also probably down Kenneth Walker too for the foreseeable future.
Yeah, this one's got a lot of injury things to keep an eye on over the next couple of days. I really hope we get Gino in this game. Otherwise that trip to fan is probably going to hit a little harder than normal. Early in the.
Evening, Sammy's got jokes today, Pat I means he is ready, he has done, he is ready for a break.
Well when I mean this is the week to get the Thanksgiving puns in, so you got to take advantage. But I think doing your part, I think Gino might actually play in this game, given that he came back in the last drive of the game against Los Angeles this past week. That said, I love San Francisco minus six and a half here.
Yeah, I've seen the number move to seven here in a lot of spots already. I'm still comfortable. I think they win this game by double digits. Pat like, this one, to me is one of the best early lines of the week. I want to jump on it right now because whether Gino plays or not, he's not one hundred percent, So I just believe in San Francisco right now. What are your thoughts?
Yeah, and these teams played three times last season, Joe and the forty nine Ers won all three in the average margin victory was fifteen points six points, so I could not possibly take Seattle here. And I kind of like the over based on the hope largely that Gino does play. I mean, I think both of these teams are maybe a little better on offense than they are on defense. The forty nine Ers are first in offensive DVA the Seahawks eleventh, and in defensive DVA the forty
nine Ers are tenth the Hawks twentieth. So I think we're gonna get points in this game if Gino plays, and maybe even if it's Drew Locke.
Don't forget tomorrow, everybody. We've got a Thanksgiving special Andrew Erickson myself breaking down all the games and the Black Friday Game as well, for not only the games in between the betting stuff, we've got the prop stuff. We're gonna do all of it here our favorite parlays of the day too. To enjoy the Thanksgiving games and have a little action there on the side. And of course the Black Friday Game a new tradition here. We'll see
how this one goes. And of course the league has to give us more Jets, because if there's one thing I can't get enough of, it's standalone New York football. Between the Jets and Giants. One of those two teams has got to be a standalone game, right, So let's talk about it. The Jets obviously underdogs, because well, Zach Wilson is horrible and the Jets offense is future. They are eight point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins. Forty one is the number for this one. The Jets on the
money lines plus three hundred. Pat Look, I'm taking the Dolphins here, this isn't double digits because they're giving respect to the Jets defense. But I don't want to give the Jets too much respect. I think this eight is so comfortable. I think Miami wins this one by ten or more. Your thoughts in this contest.
I totally get it, Joe. The last time we wrote off the Jets for lack of offense, they rebounded in a pretty big way. Like in weeks two and three, the Jets put up ten points against Dallas, ten points against the Patriots. Then in Week four they hung tough with the Chiefs and lost twenty three to twenty covered easily, and then they won three straight, beating the Broncos, Eagles,
and Giants. The one thing the Jets do really well is blanket wide receivers, and if they are able to keep Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle under wraps, maybe they can cover this number. So I'm kind of not interested in either side.
I don't know. Dolphins just feels like a little bit of a trap to me, Joe.
I just can't shake that feeling, and like this game could conceivably play under forty one and a half or forty one or whatever.
It's at now.
That's interesting POV. Yeah, like using POV, Sam, what do you think about that potentially on the under of this game, because I mean, you know the Jets are going to do their part there, like you know that's going to happen. So if they are a little lackluster or if they are a little bit you know, slow here in the shorter week preparation wise, what do you make of maybe the under being the best play in this game?
Sam, Yeah, I think it's certainly in play. Again, there's some injury concerns here. Mackai Becton got hurt. I think the Jets have now already used thirteen different offensive line combinations, which is not good folks. So I think that is going to contribute to things. The Miami defense has been
improving quite a bit as well. They allowed as success rate over fifty percent in three of the four first four weeks of the season, but they have allowed just two games over a forty percent success rate since Week five, so they're getting better. Jalen Ramsey being there helps a ton. Vic Fangio sort of leaning into that role as well. We've seen Miami with a couple of injuries as well, Devon a Chan I'm sure if he's going to be able to return. Tyreek Hill left the game but did
come back, so that is something to monitor. It seems like he's going to play this week. But the Jets defense is I think they showed a little bit of some holes against the Bills this past week. And the Dolphins I think are as good of, if not a better offense than the Bills right now. So the under is a little scary, but I understand the logic behind it.
All right, fair enough, let's go to the next one here, and this is gonna be a fun game. This is basically a playoff game. We're going to jump into the Houston tech and six and four hosting the Jaguars, So this one's practically a pick him on betting pros. Right now.
You've got Jacksonville's one point favorites forty seven is the number, and you've got Houston at minus one oh five is the best spot you can get it right now on the money line, Sam, are you ready to put your faith in the Houston Texans at home in a big spot, in a big game that really will determine their faith or is it time for the Jaguars to just start handling their business after a shaky middle of the season.
Here for them, this is I mean, this is going to be a fascinating game. I'm really excited for this one.
This.
If the Texans win, they have the front seat in winning the AFC South, Which if you had said that three months ago, people would have been laughing at you. But c J. Straud this past week did show that he is human. He had probably his worst half of football through three interceptions on Sunday. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence had probably his best game of the season so far, I believe through four touchdown passes at least accounted for four. I don't have a lean on this one. I think Texas,
excuse me, the Texans. I made them as a half point favorite, so basically a pick them here. I slightly lean towards the Texans just because they are at home again. You're buying them sort of with a little bit of depressed value after the lackluster offensive performance. But this one, I think I might lean towards the under on this one as well. Jacksonville plays pretty slow, they do rush the ball a little bit, and they're bad at rushing
the ball. As well, so I lean towards the under and hoping for a great game.
All right, Pat, your thoughts, This should be in theory one to watch this week. This is definitely a game that has massive playoff implications and obviously for this Division two, as Sam laid it out, you know, if Houston handles their business, their schedule is a bit more favorable. So the pressure I think is on the Jaguars. How do you think they respond?
Yeah? Fun matchup for sure, Joe.
The Jaguars are one of my favorite bets of the week, and since since the beginning of October they have covered in six of seven games, failing only to do so in that blowout loss to the forty nine ers coming out of their buy. So I think the Texans have just been slightly overvalued in the betting market for weeks.
And I get it.
I mean they are fun as can be, but I think the spreads have sort of overcooked the numbers on the Texans a little bit. So, like I think they're getting maybe two points a week that they probably shouldn't be getting. So I think the Jags are of value here. I think the Jags are going to win straight up. They're the better team, and yeah, I think there's a lot of value on them this week.
Okay, fair enough here, let's go to the next one. Here on the slate, we've got the Pittsburgh Steelers somehow at six and four and the Joe Burrow lists Cincinnati Bengals this one right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by one. That's where the spread's at minus one ten. You've also got thirty four and a half as the over under for this one minus one oh five for the Bengals to win. Now, we'll see how the Bengals respond. Without Joe Burrow, I know, no one really holding their
breath with excitement. Pat, I'm just running right to the under on this one, thirty four and a half. I mean, with the way these two offenses might be looking, I think that one still might be safe. What do you think?
Yes, thank you Joe for validating that opinion. Like a lot of these games this week with super low totals, I'm like, yeah, I'll take the under.
I can see it.
And this one opened with the Bengals favored by one point, which was just astonishing. As miserable as the Kenny Pickett Matt Canada experience has been for Steelers fans, like, how could the Bengals open as a favorite with Jake Browning at quarterback? So man morale and the Bengals locker room just can't be real high at the moment after losing Joe Burrow for the rest of the season and knowing that any title aspirations you had are pretty much out the window.
So I kind of like the Steelers here, and I definitely like the under.
Okay, Sam, what do you like in this contest?
I feel like Pittsburgh is the move here just given their defense, but I do not trust Kenny Pickett at all. Benjamin Solak from The Ringer posted a clip of all of Kenny Pickett's throws past the line of scrimmage this past week, and it was forty four seconds of tortress video football. You know, there might be this whole Jake Browning, you know, first start, does he catch Pittsburgh off guard
type stuff? I think, you know, whether t Higgins is back in this game could make that a difference there too. I'm staying away. I'd rather not look at their enough.
I still think that that under is I mean, especially because the Kenny Picketts leough I think the under is safe here. This is neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts at this point in their season. The Carolina Panthers also not necessarily an offensive juggernaut. They're one to nine. They are three and a half point underdogs heading to Tennessee, which feels about right here. Thirty seven is the number plus one fifty eight for the Panthers to get a VIC.
Now you're getting some value here, Sam on the money line. When it comes to the Carolina Panthers in this game, the question is do you have enough faith of them to go and win a road game here in Tennessee? Tennessee obviously with Levis, you know, it's been kind of spinning its wheels a little bit. What do you make out of this contest? Any early value in europeon this one?
Again, I don't see a ton of early value in Frank Reich took back play calling for the Panthers, and it once again did not look great. They rushed the ball a ton, seemed like they were sort of hiding Bryce Young the well Leves shine has worn off a bit. I think Tennessee will be able to just run the ball with Derrick Henry give him twenty five carries and sort of salt away this game. So I like the
under for that reason. I think again, two of these teams with some less than inspiring offenses are not going to be able to move the ball a ton and just aren't able to score. So I prefer under on this one. Don't really have a lean on either side.
The under certainly seems like the safest Betpat.
Another total under forty that I'm going to bet the under on. Yes, I like that here, not interested in either side. I mean, if you forced me to, I would probably lay the points and take the Titans at home.
The Panthers are just so bad. But I'm not going to touch either side. Like I don't want to. I don't want to have to watch this game.
Joe, fair enough, I understand. Moving on to the next game here, you've got the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints coming off Buys. Another big Indivision game here where we're going to see if Atlanta's going to make their move into this division. Conversation. They are four and six, the New Orleans Saints are five and five. They are in the driver's seat, Pat. They are right now, believe it or not. The Atlanta Falcons are one point favorites at home. Forty two and a half is the number,
minus one ten is the consensus. So it's basically just a pick up situation. And I gotta be honest with you. I understand it's the health of Derek Carr that's really in question here, But is the early value to jump on the Saints here? Regardless?
It probably is, Joe.
I mean, I've I've sworn off betting Saints games because that team has vexed me so much this season and taken so much of my money. But in a couple of pools where we have to pick every game, I'm gonna I'm gonna pick the Saints. If Derek Carr is quarterbacking the Saints, I'll be real tempted to actually bet it and get back on Saints games, which you know I'll probably regret later. If it's Jameis Winston at quarterback, I will have to reassess.
Okay, uncertainty, Sam when it comes to the quarterback situation with the Saints. But does that provide any potential value here or are you confident perhaps that Jamis Winston if he isn't he playing his game can go out there and win a road game in Atlanta.
I'm not playing this right now, but depending on who the quarterback is for New Orleans changes how I would play this later in the week. If it is going to be Derek Carr, then I'd probably take New Orleans with the points, depending on what that ends up at.
If it's plus one, then I'll take that, But if it is Jamis Winston, I probably prefer taking the Saints on like some alternate spreads like minus five and a half minus six and a half, because his range of outcomes is just going to be so much wider than Derek cars where if he plays really well, they're i think, going to take care of the Falcons easily. But there's also a situation in which he turns into thirty interception Jamis and just is not even able to get close
to that plus one. So that's the way I'm playing that game later on this week. Wants to get some more news about the quarterback situation.
Okay, New England is going to travel to New York to take on the Giants. The Patriots are three and a half point favorites. It feels like a lot talk about uncertainty when it comes to the quarterback position, is it going to be Bailey's appy? Probably, but again we're still waiting on official word for that. Thirty four is number for this one plus one fifty for the Giants on the money line. Sam, call me crazy here, but I thought that I'm believing in Tommy DeVito. But this
line feels a little weird to me. It feels as though we're giving the Patriots still a little too much credit for the team that they are. Do you think going on the road here, this is the correct line? What did you have this game at. I'm fascinated because it seems like the value is of the Giants money line right now.
I had this as Giants minus one. I mean, okay, I don't and that was more of a like, neither of these teams should be favored. I'm just giving the Giants a little bit of credit for being at home, and obviously New England is coming off of the buye with their previous game in Germany. But there just does not seem like any reason why the Patriots should be favored on the road really against anyone, I mean, let alone three and a half points, Like it's it's too
much for me. I told youlast week that there wasn't a spread high enough for me to bet on Tommy DeVito against Washington. But three and a half at home, I think I give me the Giants. Like it sounds gross, but yeah, no, I think it's I think it's right now. Giants on the money line are giants with the number three and a half. Give me the money line. I mean again, you're playing into the variants a little bit there and hoping that they are able to, you know,
get some lucky bounces go their way again. Obviously, I mentioned earlier in the show that they had six turn takeaways against Washington, and I don't expect that to get happened against New England. But I think their offense is good enough to keep this somewhat close and not completely blow it out of the way.
Pat, two thirds of us are already in on the Giants. You want to join us here on our island.
Oh Joe. So this is game number three that has a total of under forty. We're rounding third.
I'm going to touch third base and bet the under here for sure, and I am not going to bet either side. I mean, this is interesting, Like Bailey Zappi, Are you laying three and a half points to anyone with a backup quarterback starting for one of the worst editions of the Patriots we've seen in many years? Not like not that I think going from Mac Jones to Bailey Zappi is anything but a lateral move. Still like I, I just like I don't understand it. If I were
forced to bet this, I would bet the Giants. I think I want the points in a game that I think is going to be an absolute rock fight. H three and a half looks pretty inviting. So man another, yeah, I like, I just don't want to bet it because I I don't want to put any trust in the.
No kidding under. Let's go under big time.
I feel you, brother. Let's get to the Cleveland Browns. Here at the Denver Broncos. Broncos who played inspired last few weeks, but that Cleveland defense continues to just drag this team into relevance and they're in the playoff picture right now at seven and three. So pat this one is minus two and a half. Denver is favorite at home, understandably, so is questions about this Cleveland offense moving forward and
who's playing quarterback this week, we'll find out. Thirty six and a half is the consensus line plus one ten on the Cleveland Browns to win this game. Cleveland continues to find ways to win games. Pat is this the next one on their list?
I don't know, Joel.
I have no interest in betting either side on this one, but we are sliding into home played here with the fourth and final under bats of the totals under forty. I think I might parlay all these, Joe take.
I I mean, if we get one of those bonus bets there, Yeah, like a ten dollars bonus bet, just throw that bad.
Four legs parlay on those low under because those games are gonna be hideous, and I don't think we're gonna see much like who breaks this which which one of those games is the high scoring affair that ruins the four leg parlay. I don't think it's gonna be Browns Broncos. I mean Dorian Thompson Robinson averaged three point eight yards on his what forty one forty three pass attempts yesterday?
Like the Broncos defense has been better and the Browns defense is great, Like, I don't think the Broncos are gonna move the ball on the Brons. This game is gonna be hideous. I just again, it's gonna be close. I don't want to bet either.
Side sam any early value on.
This one for you. I mean, I think this is a similar situation to the game we had talked about previously of the Giants and Patriots. We've got a low total team getting a couple of points here. I think teasing both the Browns and the Giants out six points is a phenomenal bet in my opinion. Again, You're you're getting so many points in these low total games that there's a pretty good chance of both of those covering. So I think that's the way I want to play this.
I don't think the Browns' offense is in as dire dire streets is that it's made out to seem. They signed Joe Flacco to their practice squad, which we'll see if if he's able to do something or plays this week. I think if he does, then I'd probably take the Browns on the money line. But this is, again, I think, a perfect Tiaser opportunity.
All Right, we'll see what opportunities you want in the Arizona Cardinals Rams game. This one's in Arizona. They are one point underdogs at home. Forty four and a half is the number you can get minus one ten on the Rams right now, minus one oh eight on the money line of the Cardinals. Sam. With Cooper Cup likely out for this one, it feels like maybe there's an opportunity to take advantage of the situation where the Rams
are coming off victory. Not a great football team, Let's not make any bones about that, nor are the Cardinals. So is it a pick? Do you have a pick that you want to take right now?
I don't really. I mean, Matthew Stafford got a little banged up in this game as well, he did play through that injury. I don't know, Like in these sort of situations, like it's just pretty high total, I'm probably gonna take the team in the Arizona Cardinals that have a little bit more variance. I think. I don't see the Rams as what I think two and a half points better than the Cardinals, which is sort of what you make it if you use one and a half
points for home field advantage. Again, the Cooper Cup potentially missing could be huge. Obviously, they played pretty well earlier this year without him. But Arizona is I think on offense playing pretty decently. Again, Kyler getting more into the groove here could help them. I don't remember how all of these NFC West matchups work with one coach having the edge over other coaches. But obviously Cliff Kingsbury is
not in town anymore, so that may not matter. But I like the Cardinals on the money line here at home?
All right, your thoughts on this one, pat, the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Rams.
Jonathan Gannon's team has been overachieving for most of the season, and this is a pretty plucky team with Kyler Murray at quarterback. I don't think the Rams should be road favorites against any team except maybe for the absolute dregs of the league, the Giants the Panthers. I think the Cardinals are above that, and so yeah, I like the Cardinals here. You know, money line on the Cardinals looks pretty good to me. And this total was at forty six and a half on Sunday night and it's dropped
two points. I think I actually like the over this bigger number. Maybe the drop was caused by like confirmation that Cooper Cup is probably not going to play, but I think we knew that already, and you know, maybe some doubt about Matthew Stafford's well being, but I think we're going to see put some points in this game. So I kind of like the over here.
Yeah, I think the over is actually the way I would approach this one too. But I'm kind of leaning where you guys are, which is, you know, maybe the Cardinals feel like a little bit of a leave it or not a safer play here at home. Next one is interesting. I kind of want to see how the Eagles play tonight in Monday Football before I approach this one. Personally. I am in on the Eagles. I've talked about them
being on the money line this week. I think they just need this game more than Kansas City does to prove something. They are eight and one, they are three and a half point favorites. They're at home against the Buffalo Bills new offensive coordinator. Obviously, they looked pretty good against the Jets, but again, they get a lot of opportunities pat because the Jets continue to struggle to move the football, which means they give it to you and say here, you take it, I don't want it. Forty
seven and a half is the number pretty high. If you like the Bills for the upset plus one fifty, that's certainly in play. So any early leans when it comes to this one, because this is certainly a match between two of the better teams in the NFL. Do you think there's any value to be had on the betting side.
Pat, Yeah, not just an early lean.
Joe, I've already bet the Bills on this game, taking three and a half, and maybe I should have waited. Maybe this goes up if the Eagles really lay it to the Chiefs tonight, But then again, it could go the other way if things go sideways. So yeah, I mean, like Joe, like you, I am betting the Eagles on the money line against the Chiefs, and that's kind of part of this. Maybe this game against the Bills is a letdown spot for the Eagles after their big Monday
night game against the Chiefs, hugely important game. Meanwhile, the Bills are fighting for their playoff lives and are about to begin a murderous stretch of schedule. Eagles bye week, then the Chiefs, then the Cowboys. I think the Bills are going to be laser focused for this one, and I was really encouraged by what they showed us in a must win game against the Jets. They've had some trouble with the Jets in recent meetings, and they just
completely destroyed the New York Jets in Week eleven. So I like how sharp the Bills offense look like with Tom Joe Brady calling the plays.
So give me the Bills and the points in Philadelphia.
Sam your thoughts on Bill's Eagles.
I've gone back and forth about four times in the time that Pat was talking. He made some really good points. I mean, like, it's incredible what firing an offensive coordinator can do to make the best offense in the league the best offense in the league. It's pretty incredible there. But it's one of those things where I think Josh Allen is the slightly better quarterback, so getting three and a half points with him and that's not too you know,
downplay how well Jalen Hurts has played this year. But the only thing I think for me not taking Philadelphia right now is their game on Monday Night. You know what happens if there is an injury, because then it's all the Bills. And I think the Eagles defense, especially through the air, has been pretty suspect of late. They are thirty second in passing success right over the last four weeks, and if the Bills do come out throwing, then they're gonna, i think, continue to have a ton
of success. So I'm not talking to myself into it. Let's go Bills plus three and a half.
All right, there you go. Kansas City Chiefs are going to go to Las Vegas for this week and they are nine and a half point favorites on the road. Forty four is the number Las Vegas on the upset for the money lines plus three fifty. Now, Sam, when it comes to this, obviously, the Raiders have played much better football since getting rid of their coach. The problem is Ken, a rookie quarterback, keep pace with Patrick Mahome. That's the big question. It's one thing to keep pace
with Zach Wilson, Tommy Devido. I know this one that we just had against Miami didn't exactly go quite in terms of the blowout people were anticipating. So do you take anything out of that? Is the Raiders the right play here at home to cover this nine and a half or do you think the Kansasity Chiefs just kind of introduce them to what it really looks like to be the class of the AFC.
This is another really tough one because my head says take the Raiders, my heart says take the Chiefs, and I say the Raiders because Antonio Pierce has that team running the ball a ton, especially with the know O'Connell, and I do think that the way to attack Kansas City's defense is on the ground. They have a forty five point eight percent success rate allowed on the ground
over the last four weeks, which is thirtieth overall. I do think that if again the Raiders are able to slow this game down and keep it under that forty four and a half point total, that they'll have a good chance to cover this. Max Crosby is playing out of his mind. I mean, he is playing incredibly this season and is a one man wrecking crew on that defense.
So I slightly lean towards the Raiders and it feels super gross to fade Patrick Mahomes in that situation, But especially for the Raiders at home with the Chiefs coming off of a Monday night football game, I think the Raiders could keep it closer than people expect.
Yeah see, I'm kind of where you are Sam, that's my early lean right now on this one. I actually would like to, you know, if Kansas City does take care of the Eagles, perhaps this one goes to double digits and then maybe we're talking if it's eleven or twelve, maybe then you really want to jump in on the Raiders and maybe wait this one out. I'm of that mind. I want to wait and see first. Pat, what are your thoughts?
Yeah, so this was like right before I got in the show, Joe, it was ten on DraftKings. So Chiefs savored by ten. Look, and the Raiders are two and one straight up in three to zero against the spread. Since Antonio Pierce took over as head coach, I cannot take the Raiders in this game when the quarterback matchup as Patrick Mahomes against Adelaide Stevenson High School graduate Aidan O'Connell.
But at the same time, I do not want to bet the Chiefs in a potential letdown spot coming off that big game against the Eagles on a short week of rest, against a team that's playing its best football this season. So I'm just I'm staying away from this game.
All right, before we get onto the night games. I somehow for the first time ever missed a game here on this show. So let's circle back real quick. It's not the most exciting game, but it is a game. Tipa Bay Buccaneers Indianapolis Colts minus one and a half here on the Colt side at home. Forty two and a half is the number plus one ten on the money line for the Bucks.
Pat.
That's where I want to go. I'm want to go right to the Bucks. They've been competitive. They had a lot of shots against the forty nine ers and they just kept falling short and four. But the foury nine ers defense played very well, so I want to give them some credit to I like the Bucks here in this game on the road plus one ten. What are your thoughts?
Yeah, you know, Joe on Sunday Night, I always try to guess what the lines and totals are going to be for these games before I actually look at what they are, and I guessed correctly. For Bucks Colts, I guess that means there's no value whatsoever. I yeah, I just like, I don't want to bet either side on this one. The total looks spot on also, so I'm walking.
On any early value on this one.
Oh yeah, give me the Colts. The only reason I pointed out that you skip this one is because it's one of my favorite of the week. I just think there's such a massive coaching advantage for Shane Stikeen and the Colts over Todd Bowles and the Bucks. Like especially coming off of the buye Jonathan Taylor is starting to get into a groove. They're giving him a bigger workload.
I love the Colts in this spot. I think again taking some alternate spreads with them as well, because you're leaning a bit into some variance with Gardner Minshew, who has been a little bit all over the place. But I like the over in this game as well. The Colts have played exceptionally fast. They are leaving ten to twelve seconds on the playclock for every play. Teams that are facing the Colts too, are playing super up tempo as well, so I think both of these offenses are
good enough to continue to move the ball. As long as there aren't some deep red zone turnovers by either team, then this total is going to go well above the forty two and a half points.
Sunday Night football, the Los Angeles Chargers will be home against the Ravens, and I hope the Ravens take out my frustrations on the Chargers. For me, I'm choosing a champion game of throne style and my champion is Lamar Jackson. Brandon Staley was not happy after this press conference, nor should he be. You can tell things are getting a little tight, little frustrating there, and I'm going to advantage of it. Look, Baltimore Ravens are only four point favorites
here in this game. I think it should be more. I just do forty six and a half is the number plus one sixty five on the money line for the Los Angeles Chargers. Sam, I want the Baltimore Ravens of this game. I want to lock this one in now because I think more people, excuse me, more time people have to think about this one, the more they're going to realize that that's a value here on Baltimore. But what are your thoughts?
I agree, losing Mark Andrews in the Thursday night game last season really sucks, but they are going to come off some extended time having played on Thursday nights, so I think it gives them some time to regroup to get Isaiah likely in the other tight ends a little bit more chemistry as well. And this Charger's defense is just so so bad. I mean, they allowed Jordan Love to have his first three hundred yard passing game and it just it just doesn't look better in any week.
I mean that did Ravens have a coaching advantage here too. Brandon Staley has not sort of been the the plus ev guy that we have seen in the past, and the Ravens defense is still incredible, I think, So give me the Ravens with the points here.
Pat your thoughts, Ravens or Chargers.
Let's make it unanimous.
I do like the Ravens too, and some of the ratings systems have the Ravens is about eight points better on a neutral field, and let's face it, Chargers home games basically are a neutral field, So I think there's value on the Ravens here, all right.
Next one's not on a neutral field at all. This one's in Minnesota. The last one Monday night football, So Josh Dobbs unfortunately came up a little bit short this past Sunday night, So Monday maybe redemption story. They are three and a half point favorites against the Bears. That feels about right. Forty five is the number that feels about right plus one fifty four of the Bears and the upset. Now, the Bears had that game right there towards the end with the Detroit Lions, they let it
slip through their fingers. So do you think that the Bears having to go on the road two weeks in a row, this time to Minnesota, another tough in division contest, do you think they fall short again? Pat?
Yeah, I sort of like the Bears here, Joe, I don't know if they win. Probability ever crested ninety percent in that game against the Lions. I'm guessing it probably did at one point because it, like the Lions found out just how dangerous this Bears team can be. And the Bears are defensive overachievers. They have turned into one of the best run defenses in the league, which is someone unexpected. And like, I don't think they're terrible in the back end either, Like they lack a little bit
of a pass rush of the Montes. Sweat has helped in that regard, and now with Justin Fields back, they are explosive on offense too. Like not a great running game, but Fields can run and he can make it happen like we saw it on that play where he threw the long touch on pass to DJ Moore where he like pass rush was coming, he eluded it and bought
himself some time and DJ Moore got open deep. So I like the Bears in the points here against the Vikings, who you know, might still be stinging a little bit from one that got away from them against the Broncos.
Sam, I think that forty five is very much in play on the overside of this game too, because of the playmaking ability of fields. And you know, we've seen Dobbs just pretty good work here early on, and only more time he has this offense, the better it is. Ty Chandler getting his work too as well in that backfield. It was not just a Madison backfield. But what are your thoughts on the Bears and Vikings on Monday Night?
Yeah, I think obviously the loss for Minnesota could make it so that Justin Jefferson returns in this game as well. Had they won, I think they might have just waited another week going into the buy to just let him rest. Even more so, if they get him back, I think Joshua Dobbs will be able to take this one to home. I mean the Bears are just not this sounds weird, but like they're not a winning team, like Matt Eberflus
is just not coaching a great team. And they're playmakers, I think are sort of making up for his play calling deficiencies on the field. So I three and a half points, though I think is a little bit too much. That's exactly what I made it prior to looking at the line, so the over could be in play. But I would love if Justin Jefferson was in before making that play.
Ah See, I want to get it now just in case he's in. Locking in because I feel good about it now. Jefferson would make me feel even better. And also what makes you feel good is not just betting on football, but also betting on basketball. And if you haven't seen it already, check out Fast Break Bets, the ultimate source for NBA betting insights. You can join Matt and Mody every single Wednesday, every single Friday, eleven am Eastern,
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