It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It is me, Joey pa, Joe Pisa, Pia joining me today as always a Scott Bogman, and of course it's you, and today we're gonna start looking ahead already to twenty twenty two NFL.
We'll do a quick little recap of the Super.
Bowl because Bogman and I really haven't touched too much base with that since it's gone on, but we're gonna look at the early odds on AFC NFC champions and also the Super Bowl, plus just a tad bit of draft stuff as well, because if there's NFL draft to be had, there's nobody better to talk about it than our own Scott Bogman. But I want to remind everybody make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros wherever you get your podcasts, and don't.
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And Scott Bogman.
I know, as a Steelers fan, you probably had a nice amount of joy watching the Bengals fall short.
But you know, the Rams won.
I was off by a point on my score, I said, twenty four to twenty one, little extra point. That's what I was really missing at the end of the day, which had gone my way, I would have been spot on. But it feels exactly like the show that we did a last week right where we said, hey, it's probably gonna the Bengals covering, it's probably me the Rams winning, and wouldn't you know it, that's.
What it was.
Yeah, look as long as the Rams win, right, that's what I was all about. And that's exactly what happened, you know. But don't worry Bengals fans. Damn Marino got back. Oh it's aka, don't worry. Jim Kelly was all right, well, you guys are still I mean six super Bowl short of the Patriots, is that correct?
Show is?
Yeah, six super Bowl and in six super Bowl short of my team also, so okay, yeah, just making sure so zero you got your wins, first wins in thirty years. But anyway, yeah, no, this is like my first braggy thing I've done about that.
But I look, the Bengals aren't great.
You could tell all of that, like unhappiness just came out at one time from the deer season.
Yeah, wow, that was that was a lot there to take in.
Look, I've there's some great Bengals fans, some you know, but you know, I've been hearing it for the last month, so it was nice to see them lose. So but Aaron Donald, Sean McVay, I don't know what does all this retirement talk about, both those guys like Donald more than McVeigh, like McVeagh, Bro, you're thirty six, what are you gonna go do?
Like, what is he gonna do for the next Oh?
I know, ye, Well television it's a lot easier.
Yeah, it is way easier. But I mean that's not gonna fuel that fire. I mean, I think you gotta stay till you're at least forty five or something.
You know, it's a stressful job.
I get that it can take years off you, but you're gonna retire at thirty six or whatever. I know, dude's younger than both of us, So that's just a little crazy.
Aaron Donald.
I know, dude, if I could retire at thirty six, I might do it. I don't know if he's bad.
That, but I mean, you're gonna get bored even if you're on TV. That's why urban Meyer left from urban Meyer. And look, he's trash now. And everyone thinks he's not a great person either, because you know, of what he presented obvious reasons to the to the world the last year, right, But he was killing it at Fox. Everybody liked, you know, said he was doing a great job. He prepared for that job like he did as a coach, and it was great. Then he went back to coach because that
that fire is still there. And he had health issues right a couple of years prior so, and he wanted to go back. So I just can't imagine that McVeigh wins the Super Bowl and goes, I have nothing more to prove.
I'm done.
Yeah, go go and win a bunch of super Bowls, put yourself in the Hall of Fame like Bill Belichick and you know, and then go do TV. You're still gonna have plenty of time a guy he coached for fifteen more years and then have a whole career of uh, you know, TV stuff. So that was just that stuff shocked me a little bit.
I just you say, men.
Meyer prepared the way he did, Like in other words, you would go around and kick the boom guy and the kim hit up the Chili's across the street the night before, you know, for one, Margarita's baby, who the presidente?
All right?
Any other takeaways from the Super Bowl? I mean it kind of did play out exactly as I said.
We talked about it. At the end of the day.
It's the offensive line of the Bengals it was gonna be the problem. And the coverage of Eli Apple and guess what those are the two things that those.
Were the two things. They were just too obvious. Man, It's just too obvious for the Bengals. And there's a lot of teams with offensive line. I mean, the Rams didn't do a great job of keeping stafford all right. You know that both those quarterbacks got hurt in that game, not bad enough to leave the game. But yeah, I mean, so there are obvious things that need to be fixed on both sides. But yeah, I mean, the Bengals are going to spend some money in free agency. The first
they got a franchise Jesse Bates. I know, they're working on extension right now, so that might done before this errors even but I gotta get Jessea Bates back in the fold. They got to improve the offensive line, they got to keep the core pieces. That's what the Bengals got to do to try to win the North again and get back. But it's gonna be gonna be a tough row. Cleveland's gonna be better, The Ravens are going
to be healthy. You know, Steelers are gonna have you know, someone new at quarterback may not be better than Roethlisberger, but Roethlisberger was in the lower third of the year. To be nice to Roethlisberger in terms of quarterbacks last season. So you know, the road just gets harder. You know, that's every single year. You know that better than anybody.
Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, All right, let's let's put the twenty twenty one season in the past. Now, super Bowl's done and already, of course, because we're degenerates and we love this, we can't get enough of it. The odds are up already, and of course, if you want to see the consensus odds, you can always go to bettingpros dot com and check that out. But right now, if you're looking around most
of the betting houses right now. We'll just start with the AFC conference right now, the Bills are at plus three point fifty over on the fan duel side, Kansas City is at three eighty. They are the prohibitive favorites. Most books have them as basically this three and a half to four to one. So obviously no big surprise there. So I'll ask you this, Bogs, of these two favorites before we start to get in some of the other teams here, do you have a lean between the two
of these if you wanted to get in early. Will this be Josh Allen's year finally or will Patrick Mahomes kind of get back there after you know, obviously struggling up and down this year.
And it's funny both these guys might be replacing their offensive coordinator. We know Josh Allen is right right in Buffalo because Brian Deviill went and took the head coaching job for the Giants, And now there's talk about maybe a rift between Eric bana Mey and Patrick Mahomes. So the enemy might go ahead and leave that Kansas City situation. I think you have to take the experience here plus a little bit longer odds plus three eighty versus plus
three fifty on Kansas City. Kansas City has been the AFC championship four years straight. I think a fifth year would not be surprising at all. So, uh yeah, I would take Kansas City. Between both those teams.
I'll take the other side. Actually, I'm gonna go on the Buffalo side of this one. I think Buffalo recognizes that they can't keep playing that big game in Kansas City. I think if Buffalo can get this conference championship game, you know, in their building, I really think the Buffalo Bills can go ahead out there and actually make it to the Super Bowl.
I really do.
And I'm looking at the rest of the AFC and some of the turnover we're gonna talk about in a second on some of these teams. Yeah, the Bengals look good. Yeah, I think the Chargers are gonna be probably around there sniffing around. Sure, Lamar Jackson can get healthy and get right. All of a sudden, the Ravens are back in this. But to me, the Buffalo Bills to that team, if I'm gonna go in early. They're the favorites for reason. The favorites don't always get there, as we know, but
still that's where I'm gonna go. And interesting news on the enemy too. That is interesting to see if there's any change there. You know what they always say, Bogman, the the enemy of my b enemy is my friend.
That's an old saying, goes way back.
There you go, Dad jokes as Joe already all.
Right, the Cincinnati.
Joke of the new season, fresh start.
Same old dad jokes. Cincinnati Bengals ten to one here, same for the Baltimore Ravens, and then the Chargers at thirteen to one. Surprisingly, the Colts early going are thirteen to one as they're trying to ship off their quarterback. You got the Browns, the Broncos, the Titans all at thirteen to one early as well. This is kind of that mid tier group. So for me, the Chargers feel like a team that I feel like the way Herbert's played.
When you have that transcendent quarterback, anything's possible. At thirteen to one, I think there's some intrigue there, but I know you and I also see eye to eye on Labar Jackson and him potentially having one more gear in him, and this being not a make or break season, but potentially a very important one where it's time for him as a passer at the NFL level to kind of step it up. If so, what do you think of the ten to one on the Ravens and the thirteen to one on the Chargers.
I'm a little upset that the Ravens are ten to one because I thought with the bad finish and all that stuff, they were going to be much longer odds. And you know, bookmakers know what they're doing. They know that, you know, the Ravens at over twenty guys on season ending ir at the end of the season, and they're gonna get better just by staying still, you know, by getting JK. Dobbins back, by getting Gus Edwards back on offense, by getting Ronnie Stanley back, getting Marlon Humphrey back, and
the other pieces on this defense. Plus you know, Ravens barely miss on their draft picks, right, They tend to make a very very good draft picks. So I think that that's about where I would put them. So do I want a bet that number? Probably not. I think, like you said, the most interesting one here is the Chargers at plus thirteen hundred and maybe Denver at plus thirteen hundred, just because if they do get Rogers, which I don't think he should do. And you and I
have talked about this a couple of times. You know, you go from the NFC, where you're competing in the Bears, the Lions, and the Vikings for that division, versus you would come in and play against Mahomes, you play against Herbert, you play against the Raiders, who just made the Bible.
A step further Bogs.
You're also competing against a bubbleful East in the NFC. I mean, I'm saying, if you're on the other side, Yeah, yeah, yeah, Breeze is gone, Brady's gone.
I mean, wives La, the Rams defense obviously takes an enormous hit. So yeah, I mean, the path to the super Bowl is much much easier in the NFC than it is the AFC right now.
So I don't see why he would do that.
But look, you know, Aaron Rodgers gave up on his own family, so it would not be that shocking if he went to Denver. I mean, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. I would say, it's less likely they're probably going to try to you know, as the kids would say, Joe run him back, So.
Will the Will Aaron Rodgers marry the next girlfriend if he wins a Super Bowl? I just I'm not sure. Every year he misses the Super Bowl when he breaks up with the girlfriend. I don't know if this is a trend. He's just trying to find the right combination.
They're all bad luck, right, I.
Guess, I guess. All right, let's talk long shots here. The Patriots plus sixteen hundred, the Las Vegas Raiders plus twenty five hundred, which I find kind of an interesting one too. Your Pittsburgh Seelers thirty three to one, right now, that's where they're at. Any love fortting long shots in the AFC potentially.
Well, I don't think the Steelers should ever be thirty three to one with Mike Tomlin because he's never had a losing season, so there are chances of making the playoffs. Are pretty good going to be one of the worst rosters they've had in the Mike Tomlin era. I understand that, so they're probably not going to win it. So but I don't mind. Like you said, thirty three to one, make a small bet, a unit, unit and a half something like that.
Raiders too, much new going on. I don't like that.
I think if you're going to pick one of these teams and I feel like this is the way you set it up, Joe, it's probably the Patriots strong defense, second year quarterback of Mac Jones. They're probably going to add some playmakers through the drafts and free agency for him as well.
They are up against the cap a little bit.
Jacoby Myers may be gone, but there's so many good wide receivers in this draft, and you have so few needs on this team. I know the Patriots don't they don't like drafting those first round whiteouts. But if Devin Lloyd and if Devin Lloyd and why can't I remember the other linebacker right now?
Williams would be the other guy too.
If he, oh, Jamison Williams would be a great addition. Obviously, tours in the National Championship may or may not be ready for the beginning of the season. But yeah, I mean, look, I think that the Patriots always kind of have to be in there because of the hoodie. He's a good coach, you know, and they're not. They just need a little more juice on offense. I feel like to make themselves contenders.
In the AFC.
You think Nikobe Dean would fall to them potentially. I really think they need.
To Nacobe Dean and Devin Loyd to your two first round linebackers. So yeah, one of those.
Two guys that I would like to see them get, I.
Would love to see him get like Garrett Wilson or chrys Olave or a wide receiver that is just gonna get open for Mac Jones. I mean, you invested in Mac Jones. He's your guy, had a great year, Lookie the Year, all that stuff. So yeah, I mean, let's or no, he was a rookie, Jamar Chase the Rookie the Year, but no, it's yeah Chase. I mean, you know, runner up a great pick in Mac Jones, and they just need to surround him with weapons.
Agreed, they need this round.
Brady too, that was what he was complaining about. They tried with Antonio Brown, did not work. Let's go and talk about the NFC right now. The Rams of course, you run it back as the kids like to say, plus four point fifty the Packers plus six hundred.
I actually love this Packer number right now.
To me, I would jump on this one because as soon as Rogers gives you a definitive answer here, and it seems like it's going in this direction. I think that number is going to go to three to one. Bogs, they really do.
The Cowboys are at six to one.
Then you got the forty nine Ers at plus six fifty, the Cardinals at plus twelve, the Buccaneers at plus thirteen.
I gotta be honest with you, full transparency.
I do not love this NFC board at all, and this is the time to get in on the Packers. And you know me, I love Aaron Roger so much so if I'm telling you this is the time to get in on a plus six hundred, I would get on it right now, because when he comes back and Adams comes back, this goes to I don't know, three to one, probably if not two and a half, depending on if the Rams have some weird offseason things happen.
What do you think of this NFC board the way it looks.
Yeah, I mean I think, like you said, it's not as appealing as some of those teams in the AFC, but it also makes it easier to get there. Right So I'm with you in the Green Bay plus six hundred, I'll say this though, I think my favorite one here might be just taking a long shot on Tampa Bay. I know Tom Brady has you know, retired. I'm not one hundred percent convinced that that is a lock, right.
I think he's probably gonna be retired, but I know they're doing everything they possibly can to get him back. But I think once he said it, it's pretty much done. But that doesn't mean that they can't do the same thing they did with Brady with somebody else. Why not go get Aaron Rodgers, try to go get air run, try to get Russell Wilson, you know, I mean, try to work something else out. Because the core of this team is there and intact. So I definitely think maybe
taking a shot on Tampa Bay could be good. Not looking great with Kyle Trask as the quarterback right now, I'll say that, although I do like Kyle Trask for one of the most people. But yeah, I mean, they get Rogers or Russell Wilson, it's going to do the same thing you just said about Aaron Rodgers going back to Green Bay. The six to one for Green Bay turned in three to one. This thirteen would probably turn into six for Tampa Bay. If they got Russell Wilson or Rogers or somebody.
All right, let's look ahead at the Super Bowl outright, betting right now that you can do on the twenty twenty three Super Bowl. Buffalo Bill's seven to one odds right now, the Chiefs at seven point fifty. You got the Rams at plus twelve, the Packers at plus thirteen. I keep coming back to the Packers box because I feel like the path is there, and not even just the quarterbacks too, but also, I mean, you're taking away coaches.
Let do you think about it too?
You have new coaches coming in, but also guys like Sean Payton not there anymore. You always think, you know, Sean Payton's a great football coach. There's so much turnover in the NFC. I would be looking to bet the Rams at twelve to one to get back or the Packers at thirteen to one to get back, because you're getting double the amount of odds, and I feel like the path back there is relatively easy. I mean, can we count on the Cowboys? Can we count on a
second year quarterback and Trey Lance really being transcendent? It's possible, but it's kind of a tough sell. I would not bet on the Bengals to make it back there at twenty to one. I know it's very intriguing, but teams that lose the Super Bowl typically do not make it back the next year. Just go look at the track record. It's guys named Wilson and Brady. Outside of that in the last twenty years, it does not happen. So that's kind of where I'm going. The long shots, like the
Chargers at plus twenty four hundred that one. I'm kind of intrigued by the Ravens at twenty to one, but Bogs to me the best bet on the board of those two favorites in the NFC, because you're getting twelve thirteen to one respectively.
Yeah, I mean, I think you're right.
I think the Rams are probably my favorite one here at twelve to one. Right, I don't mind Kansas City at seven and a half to one. By the way, you know the experience you have, Patrick Mahomes, you have a chance right, one that we didn't mention in the AFC, and I should have mentioned it because it's the exact same scenario. I feel like as Tampa Bay is Tennessee, there's been a little bit of Rogers. Maybe the Tennessee kicks around, and if he does, go to Tennessee. While
the AFC is tough. Now you're in the AFC South with Houston, Indy who just missed the playoffs, and Jacksonville has a number one overall pick. So if that was a real landing spot for a Wilson or a Rogers, I think that's a great spot too. Good offensive line, great running game, Dereck Henry. Obviously you have weapons in Julio and a j. Brown, plus that great defense. Probably gonna lose Harold Landry, but you know, I think that that that's a good possibility. And they're twenty four to
one here. That's not bad either. But my favorite one, you know, if you're putting real actual money today, is just mcveigh's coming back.
Aaron Donald. I can retire yet go with the Rams A.
I don't think.
I don't think he retires either. All right, so enough of the futures. Let's talk about the future players in the NFL. And let's start here with the odds right now and the number one draft pick overall, Aiden Hutchinson at the top of the board here plus one fifty. We know that Jacksonville has this pick Evan Neil at two to one plus two hundred. Right now, these are the odds on FanDuel again for the consensus. You could check out what's going on at bettingpros dot Com and betmgm.
Obviously he's gonna have odds for these as well, so make sure you go check them out at bet MGM.
Came on Thibodeau at six to one and then after that.
I don't really think it's realistic, to be honest with you, but I keep coming back to Evan Neil at two to one is a really intriguing wager right now as we get further into this process, I just I don't know. I feel like you made the investment in Lawrence, it would make sense to make the investment in Neil. It's almost a no brainer. As transcendent as defensive players as Hutchinson and Thibodeau might be. I think it gotta continue to build on the line and protect your quarterback investment.
But Box, maybe you have a different way of looking at this board.
I don't My two marks that I've done for Fantasy Pros so far have both had Evan Neil as the number one overall pick, and I don't look Aiden Hutchinson. I think it's the best player. So if the Jaguars are just going to sit there and go, look, we know we got to protect the blond side. They also have a boatload of money to spend, so they could bring back Cam Robinson and have him play left tackle.
I believe he played you know, something like ninety something percent the snaps last season at left tackle for them graded out just okay, he played eighty percent.
Excuse me.
They're also losing their left guard, Andrew Norwell. I mean, but they could resign both those guys with that issue and then just say, look, we're gonna take BPA at Satan Hutchinson and let's go. I've also seen Ike McConnell Conwell, the NC State tackle mocked a couple times that number one overall pick, and he's sitting at what you say was eight to one.
Eight to one right now, yeah, plus eight hundred.
I don't think he's a bad option either. And you know, Jacksonville, it's not gonna be a one year process. Doug Peterson is not going to come in and make this team a playoff contender. I don't think in year one, So maybe they trade back. Maybe there's a team that's obsessed with Kenny Pickett, is a team that's obsessed with Aiden Hutchinson. You know, maybe they trade back, and at that point it would be like who knows who the number one
pick is going to be. So we're early in the process, but I think Hutchinson and Neil are your safe bets. The only other one I would take right now is probably a quant a kon Wu. But if you wanted to lay money on the quarterbacks, fine, But I think from the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl process, we just kind of found out, you know, we said. The word I kept saying was unsettled, because I think there's a lot of good quarterbacks in this class, but there's not that franchise.
There's no Joe Burrow in this class.
So it's a guy that's gonna come in and probably need to sit for at least half the year before he takes over.
I think Malik Wills needs to sit a year, you know.
I think Matt Kraal could could probably need to sit unless he I mocked him to New Orleans. I think halfway through the year he should be starting them over.
Taysom Hill.
But you know, I think that this quarterback class is one of the very few where there's just not a lock to go in the top five picks, which is surprising for quarterbacks.
All right, speaking of quarterbacks, let's talk about the first quarterback selected. You could bet this actually over on the FanDuel side. Well, Kenny Pickett plus one twenty, Milik Willis at plus one fifty, Sam Howe at six to one, than Macrela ten to one, desmon Ritter at forty to one, and then Carson Strong at eighty to one. So we'll let those guys go. Do you have a lean so far? We'll picket or Willis go first?
I mean my favorite is Willis. I think Willis offers the most upside. He also offers a giant floor. Kenny Pickett is your safer QB option. So this is kind of, you know, like we pick a last year between Trey Lance and Mac Jones. I think Kenny Pickett's going to come in and stabilize a frand Milik Willis can come in and potentially have all kinds of upside.
But are we going to see it this year?
Doesn't matter for this exercise, of course, but I think right now, your safe option is can he picket? And I mean one of the very few words out of you know, outside of just how these guys kind of separated themselves during the Shrine Bowl in Senior Bowl process, it was clearly picket and Willis It stood out above all the rest. But Matt Corrall obviously didn't participate. He just had ankle surgery after the bowl game. And I read I can't remember who the source was, so I apologize.
I think it might have been Matt Miller, but he said he was talking to a scout and he said the guy that had the best week here was Matt Krall because he wasn't here, so which is kind of it's a little damning to this class. And you know, so, Matt Corrall, I think if you're not taking those other two, there's no way I'm taking how Ritter is just such an outside shot. So it would be a Corral attend to one.
Corral is a long shot ten to one. And you think the safer.
Picket Asot Pickett is a safer one. Yeah, you know, you're not getting much better odds.
Well, I feel like the best quarterback that we always like is never the one that's gets taken first. You and I historically have agreed on this, and the order of the quarterbacks we like ends up being the order in which they are good in the NFL, but not always typically the order in which they are selected in the NFL draft.
From doing shows with you over the years, that's what I've learned.
Yeah, yeah, we're both big on Lamar, although I was still I was Josh Rosen in that class, and I look.
You were, but I was Josh Allen in that class if you remember too, and everyone thought I was nuts.
Well yeah, well that was the class where everyone was like, well, these three guys will be good, and these two guys weren't. I'm like, I think all of them could be pretty good, right, and especially Josh Allen.
I mean my couple of my Dyoasty leagues.
I have Josh Allen rostered because I believed in him and he was going just late. You know, everyone's taking Lamar and all those other guys. So but anyway, I digress. It's it's Malik Willis is my favorite, but Kenny Pickett's the safe is to go first.
Odds aren't long enough for.
Me to bet that if I'm betting anybody right now is Matt Crowd ten to one.
I like that.
I like whether it's maybe just the projectability of Matt Corrow being the better investment on the board.
But I'm with you about Evan Neil. Two to one. Money's pretty good right now. I think I would lock that in.
So lock in the Evan Neil, lock in the Packers over at thirteen to one right now, there's some good odds right now and six to one. Double down that bad boy six to one to win the NFC, and then you might as well go go all the way and drop another nugget on there for the Super Bowl while you're at it, and get ahead of the game, because you and I both know that number's gonna change as soon as you get some sort of answer with
Aaron Rodgers. And if it's wrong, it's wrong, but you can always double down on it if it's right at the end of the day. So don't forget about that, and don't forget too to subscribe to the Daily Juice podcast and Betting Pros wherever you get your podcast, and don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel as well at Betting Pros YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros where we have all of our podcasts on there. The Daily Juice is on there every day. We're gonna have some
amazing videos come baseball season. So a lot going on here on the betting side to make sure at Betting Pros you are locked and loaded with us for the journey in twenty twenty two. It's gonna be a fun NFL season, fun offseason for sure to watch, and the draft everything we're gonna cover for you here. So that'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,