Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Crows Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are heading headfirst into Week nine of the NFL season, so it's time for an early look at the week nine lines. Here to do that with me is my friend Shawn Green, the co founder of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network co host of the Sports Gambling Podcast. Find him on Twitter at shaunt Green. That's s e A n Sean. Thank
you for joining me. What's up?
Oh? Yeah, man.
Both are teams coming off wins pretty rare this season, so I'm excited and yeah, hit a massive.
Moneyline dog parlay.
Dogs are really due and I felt like we finally got some dogs going last week.
Yeah. I don't know if it's too early for us to buy Super Bowl tickets for the Jets for the Jets Eagles, but I'm in if you're in, So if you want to get yeah.
Let's let's just buy. I'm assuming they're both gonna make it.
I think it's a good bet right now. We'll get on that right after we're done with this podcast. But first we're going to look at every single line from Week nine of the NFL. Before we do, I'll remind you about the latest offer from bet MGM, which is, if you bet ten dollars and you win, you can win two hundred dollars. Pardon me, if your team scores a touchdown again bet ten dollars in any NFL team, win two hundred dollars in free bets if that team
scores a touchdown. For new users, available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, and Wyoming when you use the code Juice one hundred again Daily Juice. That's our daily podcast hosted by Matt Pearl. That is the code there for new customers. Juice one hundred over at bet MGM. All right, good sir, let's
get into it here. We've got some interesting ones. No bigger game the higher weekend and Thursday night football where everyone can enjoy and be with me here with the Jets getting ten and a half, the consensus line from the Colts in Indianapolis totals forty six and a half. Any thoughts on this one?
Yeah, you know, usually my default is the lean towards the better team. But a man, is this one's gonna be interesting? I wouldn't be surprised. Well, I'd like to get your take. Do you think people are gonna be riding that Mike White hype coming into this game and liking the dog or is the public just gonna go because because the Colts are coming off a loss the Jets are coming off a win.
If I was taking the dog, I'd almost want the opposite there.
Right, Yeah, this is like, this is the opposite of what you want for This would ordinarily you would think would be a spot to back the Jets. But such a tough loss here for the Colts and the Jets of course having that big win, I'd have to think that the public is going to be on the Jets at this one when you're over ten, right, like because of recency bias and Mike White. You know that his Hall of Fame bust is our prey, you know, being
its introduction. So I would think that it's there. I think if I had to go one way or another, I mean, I think the Colts are probably gonna win this game handily. We saw by the way, right what happened the last time the Colts had their guts ripped out, which was on that Monday night football game against the Ravens. Then they played an inferior team the next week and they trounced the Texans, as they should. I think they do bounce back here at home. But ten and a
half is just too much for me to take. So I don't know, man, I guess if I had to go aside, you're give me a hook on a double digit spread, like I might as well take the dog, But it's kind of a stay away from me, what do you?
Yeah, Yeah, I think we'll see kind of where this line actually goes. I mean, if it gets up to thirteen, I think people are gonna pound the Jets, and kind of the same if it gets down to ten. So I think it's gonna hold tight here at ten and a half. Yeah, they want you to pay that.
Extra hook to get you to get you on the Jets. Probably, so I would. I would lean Colts, but it's early.
Yeah, I think realistically what everyone should do is just enjoy the game, enjoy the watch, enjoy Thursday night, but enjoy the Jets and Thursday night football. So we'll see again.
I mean, the one thing if you want to think, if you want actual sort of quote unquote analysis of what you want to do here, it's gonna be really tough for the Jets to continue to sort of just lean entirely on Michael Carter because Colts are, you know, best in defensive DVOA against the run, and it's kind of you know, we'll see what Mike White can do. You can do.
Another four hundred game performance might happen.
You never know. I mean, Corey Davis might playing this one that will help. But yeah, it's just kind of a stay away from me. I don't expect, I like you, I don't expect the line to move to ten. But it's not gonna move, you know, I don't think I think this is where it sits. I think it's gonna just kind of stay here, all right. The Vikings are visiting the Ravens. Ravens coming off the buy at home or laying five and a half the total forty nine and a half. Kind of a dud here for the
Vikings on Sunday Night Football. Obviously now a healthy Ravens team.
What do you think, well, Kirk Cousins in prime time just came up in a big way, a big collapse ne g at a non conference road spot for the Vikings. I mean, if you're liking the Ravens, and that's certainly appetizing. Under six teams have been bad off the bye week. I don't know what it is, but I think if any team can break it, I think it's this Ravens team.
And that felt almost like a dream crusher game for this Vikings team that just keeps losing close games or maybe games you should say, like they lost by three points to the Bengals. They you know, lost a game in Arizona they could have won with the missfield goal. They certainly could have won at home against Dallas. Negative go on the road against this Ravens team that they're looking to bounce back. So I think anything under a touchdown, it's gonna be tough to get a ton of Vikings actions.
So I do think this will this may move up and as the week goes on.
Yeah, I think if you like the Vikings you should wait because I can't see it going down really. But you know, the thing is, Sean, I don't know if you feel this way the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. It is always when you think you should bet on them, they fail, right and when you want to bet against them, they come through. And I have backed them on the
two games. I can't remember what the second one was, but I back them against Arizona and they were getting whatever it was in that game three and a half, four and a half, so they they covered the other one that I went with them. But they're ugly when you have to take them. So right now, I certainly lean the Ravens for sure, because I think, just looking at the way this game is gonna unfold, it's gotta
favor them. And we'll see if Justin Jefferson, by the way, is okay, because I know it was a little banged up there at the end. But I feel like when I dig into this and I get to Thursday and I'm thinking about it, it's gonna be like, man, this is the spot where you know, Mike Zimmer and Kirk Cousins figure out a way to keep this game much closer than they should. So the go ahead side, Oh no, I.
Was gonna say.
Also, just a really really interesting game from DFS as well. These these non conference games can get kind of interesting and I wouldn't be surprised if if Lamar is a fun play and the Ravens have had issues on their defense, for defense that's historically really good. I mean, we saw the Bengals put up a bunch of points against them, so kind of be interesting to see what happens here.
Yeah, definitely a game I'll be watching, regardless of any betting or fantasy impact. Just a fun game to watch. But yeah, bottom line is, I think if you like the Vikings, it's something you can wait because I don't expect this to get much worse. Browns are visiting the Bengals. The Bengals are currently laying three total of forty seven, but tough losses here for both teams. What do you think we see here with the trade that line, by
the way, we'll say we'll be honest. Recording this little later this week had some scheduling issues for me, So no trades, no big things here that moved. OBJ is still with the Browns.
Is Dad's still a cutting up game film of him being wide out?
Dad is not happy, I think, but look it is. It's status quo here for both these teams. So what do you think here with the Bengals leangth three in the divisional game.
Yeah, no, I mean I feel like this is you know, if I had a guess to spread coming into it, I would have guessed three. Both pretty even teams, division matchup, both coming off losses. I think this is just kind of who do you like more as a team long term? And who do you thinks to as simple as it sounds, who do you think the better team is? Do you like this Cleveland team? And I'm still kind of out on Cleveland with Odell and that labroom issue again, I mean or sorry, not Odell Baker.
I mean, Odell's his own issue, but.
Yeah, yeah, Baker just doesn't look right. That offense doesn't look right, even getting chubbed back, they just did not look good. And you know, if you can't put up more points against Pittsburgh at home, and Bengals really are gonna be jacked up for this spot.
So I think it's gonna be tough for the Browns.
I kind of like the over, and you know, I know it's a divisional game where these two and you know, Cleveland obviously played it pretty defensive game and the Bengals have had a good defense all year. Long, unless, of course, Hall of Famer Mike White is there where he can just totally tear him up. But I do expect the Bengals offense is really clicking right now. You know, the passing game is working well, and even if they have trouble running the ball, which Cleveland you know, a very
tough run defense. Although Najie Harris was pretty good last week, I do think that the Bengals are going to be able to move the ball. And I think Cleveland knows. I mean, Mayfield wasn't terrible last week. Their offense has just seemed out of sorts the entire year, right, I mean Odell and Baker obviously, as his dad knows, I can't get on the same page. Landry is hit or miss a little bit, but I kind of expect points here to go. There's some forty six and a half
out there. I feel like conventional wisdom suggests that it'll be a close defensive game. But I do think actually that both teams are going to score. I kind of expect, after last week's tough game against the Steilers, where they didn't do much offensively, for the Browns to come out here firing some creative plays. Be able to move the ball a little bit, so I personally lean the over, but I don't think it's something. I don't think it's going to move all that much from where it is.
Bill's continue their trend of just laying, you know, more in a touchdown here. Fourteen and a half as they visit Jacksonville. Total forty nine.
Yeah, I mean, I guess this is about right.
And it's crazy to think this spread is kind of low for this Jags Bills team, and the Bills aren't afraid to put it on teams.
I know they kind of let Miami hang around.
And thankfully because I was on the Bills at like thirteen and a half, Josh Allen had that there was like a point where like are they gonna run it out or you know what's gonna happen. Then he took that bootleg into the end zone and got the cover.
A bit of a sweat there, But I think it's gonna be tough to get money on the Jags, and I could see something similar to what we saw with the Houston game last week, where it starts at fourteen and a half, creeps up as the week goes along, gets to sixteen and a half, and I'm sure everyone saw that that ended up being a bad beat for people, because the Rams ended up winning thirty eight twenty two.
So if you're gonna you know again, if you're gonna take the favorite, generally take it early in the week. If you're gonna take the doll you can wait, because I think everyone's gonna be putting the bills in the teas or taking the bills instinctively.
And yeah, if you like the Jags, which interesting to.
Like the Jags at any point, but I would just hold off because you might get closer to a seventeen.
That's exactly right. If you like the Bills, hit it out, because fourteen and a half, it's actually fourteen at my book DraftKings fourteen and a half. Pretty much everywhere, that's the best line you're going to see, I expect, so because there's just you can't beck the Jaguars right now, no matter what mo people who work on models and stuff like that, and that's what they bet and the syndicates like, no matter what it says like, there are teams, and I think the Jaguars are one of those teams
because of how poorly coached they are. Because of how few adjustments that they make, you know, at halftime that just kind of break the models to the extent where I imagine that there's going to be so much money coming in here on the Bills, and I agree, I think it's going to creep up to fifteen, sixteen, sixteen and a half. And that's where you get a little worried. Like we saw with the Rams, a game that they totally dominated and probably could have won by fifty five
points had they get their foot on the gas. So you like the Jags waited out, you like the Bills go now.
Yeah, that's fourteen at DraftKings at minus one ten is is pretty appetizing right now, Urban Meyer, he breaks a lot of models. Yeah, And I mean you this Jags team, and granted it was a weird travel spot for them, but they led up thirty one points to Gino Smith, a lad team, So I mean that says it all right there for me, and I just it's gonna be tough for them to slow down this Bill's offense.
I will not hear dispara dream remarks about my former jet Gino Smith, but I will say that that's also coming off a bye right, Like what happens when you're not by Yeah, and now you've got to take on right, Okay, Broncos visiting the Cowboys. The Cowboys are laying nine and a half and the total is forty nine and a half. I will say that legitimately three seconds before the word Broncos came out, I did see something come across the wire that Noah Fant has been placed on the COVID
nineteen reserve list. I don't know whether or not that means he's gonna miss the game necessarily, but they could be down their tight end here for this game. Broncos again getting nine and a half here in Dallas and the totals forty nine and a half? What do you think?
Yeah? This is and again this is the classic.
Like if you like the favorite, hopefully you bet it at the opening number, because I think this opened as low as seven. Now, obviously the Broncos trained away von Miller, and von Miller shouldn't him being playing or not shouldn't really move the line, but I think it does signal to people like kind of waving the white flag here. Now you have a non conference spot for this Broncos team going up against the Cowboys who will probably play deck again.
He looked pretty healthy. I was surprised he didn't go there. They played it safe.
They you know, got the win with Cooper rush guy guy looks like Carson Wentz's stunt double and they just they just I mean, it's insane that they're seven and zero again to spread. You think at some point this is gonna run out, and maybe this Broncos team is the team to do it, just because Teddy Bridgewater is a machine against the spread on the road. I think it's as high as like seventy percent. So I had the Broncos as one of my locks last week. Ugly game,
but they got it done. I mean, von Miller by all accounts, him leaving kind of set some bad vibes for this locker room. So it'll be in an interesting emotional spot I think for this Broncos team with no von Miller and the Cowboys are just in cruise control right now.
Did you see the story on that, like the reason why they traded him.
I heard.
I heard there was stuff about like a Halloween party that he got really mad that some of the guys didn't chip in for the Halloween party.
Is that what you're referring.
To that's correct, apparently, and it like infected the locker room and everybody was really pissed at each other, and the Broncos were like, we're not resigning him anyway, so we're just gonna shoot them out. I don't know whether or not that is true. I cannot vouch for the veracity of that story, but nevertheless, it's fun to talk about for a second. Yeah, it feels like for me that, I mean, there is a ten out there, by the way,
and a couple spot points bet for example. So my guess is it will probably get to ten because nobody wants to bet on the Broncos, and everybody's gonna want to bend the Cowboys, especially now Dak should be back. You're right, everything suggested he is going to come back, not that they need him with you know, Cooper rush there.
But I do think that this is a spot where it strikes me that I want to back the Broncos just because they I can't figure the Broncos out, Sean, I don't know about you, like I can't get a read on what they are, and they've they've been decimated with injuries, you know, to their linebackers, so suddenly they became very vulnerable against the run. I think Bryce Callan may have been injured in this one too, so I need to check on the you know, cause you're not
gonna be able to hold down all these receivers. But it does strike me as a spot where they's sort of classic, like at some point we got to sell the Cowboys, right, at some point they're not this good. This feels like it might be it, but I would wait because I don't think it's going to go down like the spread's gonna, you know, move towards seven. I think, if anything, it's going to get to ten, maybe even higher than that.
Well, and if their teaser betters in the audience, it's it's been a great year to be betting those teases. I think, you know, double digit favorites had won outright, something like twenty seven and oh actually going into that Jets Bengals, I think there were like twenty seven to ZH straight up. So I do think they're gonna move this, of course, to ten and a half. I think similar to what the KC line was, because then they get
teaser protection. I know because I had I had the Chiefs as my last leg in the tease, and I don't know why I'm still on the Chiefs. It was more just being anti the Giants. Although the Giants just keep showing up on the road for some reason. I don't I don't understand why there's so much better on the road than they are at home.
So I think you're right.
It gets to at least ten, probably ten and a half because they're protecting it and says like six p teesus.
Yeah, I agree, that's where we're going. Texans are visiting the Dolphins. You know, Deshaun Watson is still on the Texans for now. Could have been Q being for the other team if you would believe the rumors early on. The Dolphins are currently laying six and a half with a total of forty six. This is a weird game for me, Sean, How do you feel about it? Yeah?
I mean a one win Dolphins team, like, what are they won in seven and they're laying six. That's to me is just crazy. But then on the other side, how do you talk yourself into taking the Texans at any point? I'm still holding out hope that my boy Tyrod Taylor. Yeah, it sounded like he was maybe close last week. But again, what are the Texans playing for? Like, do they I mean, you know, obviously Tyrod isn't the man of the future. Do they want to see what
they have with Davis Mills? I feel like we kind of already know what we have with Davis Mills.
And now Miami.
By all accounts, it seemed like they wanted to get the trade done. The contingency was that he would have to settle these civil lawsuits, according to reports, and for whatever reason, that didn't happen. So now Miami's in a weird spot because clearly, I mean, how committed can they actually beat a Tuah?
It's clearly into his head?
And I'm not a big to a guy by any means, but man, this is a game where if you're betting this, you're a brave person.
Because I have no I have no like you can.
I don't want to be I don't want to have a ticket on either one of these teams right now.
I will take a ticket on this game, but it will probably be on the over because I think what we're gonna see is a lot of offense in that I think Miami is They're not terriball offensively once with Devontai Parker back with Jaylen Waddle sickne Yeah, get sicky exactly.
You know. I hate to mention his name, but Miles Gasking now without Malcolm Brown like can do some things in the right thing and against Houston, and I also again they probably want to it probably is very motivated, I would assume to kind of show what you can do in this and you know, the Texans, whether it's garbage seim or not, like they can put up points. And the Dolphins defense played better last week, but they've been a sieve this whole year. Man. So it's only
forty six. It's forty six and a half for me at DraftKings, but everywhere else looks like at forty six. So that's actually where I go. I'm going to bet it as soon as we're off this podcast. But that's it for a side. No, I will not bet a side at all on this game. I don't know what you do with this one, but Saints at home are laying six to the Falcons and the total is a
minuscule forty two and a half. So we presume it's going to be Taysom Hill, who everything said suggested that he would be up if not, it's going to be Trevor Simeon. There's no Calvin Ridley on the other side, So how do you break this one down?
Yeah, this is this to me feels a hair high just based on we don't know.
I mean, Jamis Winston was a legit quarterback.
I mean, I still don't know if I'm really factoring in modeling. Not that I'm a model guy, but that you know, I'm not really counting Taysom Hill as a legit starting quarterback.
And I guess we'll see there often.
Certainly does seem pretty different when they have a Taysom Hill in there.
As far as like the stuff they're gonna run.
They do have a Kamara obviously healthy, and but six points feels a bit high for this division game and they're coming off that felt like.
A massive victory.
I mean, I'm sure you saw that video of Jamis dancing in the locker room with the fog machine going, celebrating that big win. And I always like to fade teams coming off a big win, laying a big number, especially in a division spot. Again, I'm not in love with the Falcons, but them back during this certainly is a possibility.
Yeah, I don't love it either side. Man, Like I agree, it's such a letdown spot here for the Saints after that victory, like you said, like it really really is. And the Falcons looked terrible, But that's what that's when you buy a team. Yeah, right, you buy a team and they look like the worst team in the NFL, right, I mean.
Yeah, I think this will end up being closer to four than seven.
So I was surprised to see a six.
So I guess if you like the Falcons, then probably you'd think you should take them now as opposed to Wait, right, Okay, I think that's right. I don't think he gets the seven just because as Giants are home where you know they we just talked about it not their strong side. They're getting I'm sorry, they're getting two and a half points from the Raiders. The total is forty six and
a half. The Raiders are coming off the bye, but they're traveling across country, and of course the Henry Ruggs situation where the horrific accident he will I assume be certainly not playing this game, probably not play for the rest of the season, whatever happens. So that does impact their offense of course, but they're laying two and a half here off the by with the total of forty six and a half.
Yeah, I mean that that rug story.
Really there's a wrench into this handicap in this this Raiders team. You know, between this and then the Gruden thing, they've kind of been on an emotional roller coaster.
I imagine for this team.
Hard hard to not like the Raiders, and they they again, I don't even know what you would compare this to, but they've they've already been.
Through a lot of a lot of stuff so far in this season.
I do like the matchups. I mean, I think the health of Darren Waller will be big. I mean, you know who's at Foster Morow filled in pretty well, but I think I think Darren Waller, certainly the Giants would have their hands full. And again, this Giants team that was a I mean that the two minute drills they're running and they're super banged up. It'll be interesting to see what the injury report. It does feel like this
is the game probably where Saquon comes back. But yeah, so you know, two and a half point road favorite for the Raiders sounds about right. I would be shocked if it gets to three and a half for the Raiders, especially everything that they're gonna have to deal with.
So it is, it is, I will say, I mean the consensus line again where a betting bro's like home, the consensus line is two and a half. But it's basically fifty percent of the books I'm looking at or two and a half and like forty nine percent or whatever are at three. So it is bouncing back between two and a half and three. So I don't know if that means that if you're at two and a half and you like the Raiders, obviously go now because there's clearly no consensus here as to where they get
to three. We can't forget. I mean, you did mention I do think Saquan should come back at this point because it's been three games and they didn't place them on ir so you felt like, right, they're probably there. Maybe Kenny Galley comes back. They're probably gonna be down those Sterling Shepherd they just can't keep anyone healthy in that team. But again, the Giants. I'll never back the Giants at home.
No, they're so bad against the spread at home, and they've been sneakily okay in certain spots against the spread, but it's usually on the road or in especially.
In division games.
Joe Judge has been I know as an Eagles fan, they've been good against the number, not great straight up, but yeah, the two and a half kind of interesting. But it's tough to talk yourself into this giant team at home.
All right, two teams coming off big wins. Here, the Patriots are visiting the Panthers. The Pats are laying four points and the total is forty one. We have question marks about Sam Darnold. He's in the concussion protocol right now. It's a concussion. We never know exactly how that's gonna shake itself out. We don't know if Christian McCaffrey is going to play. I do not think that he is personally. So if you're letting that factor it in, you can
listen to me or not. But what do you think here with the Pats laying for and that's total really small forty one.
Yeah, that's interesting, and there's a there's a revenge angle as well, I think for Gilmore there and you know it, maybe it is a good time to fade some of this Patriots hype.
But you know, PJ.
Walker who I loved in the XFL or AF I forget he was fun, but he did not look good in relief of Sam Darnold and this Panthers offense. Man as a guy who owned Robbie a lot of shares of Robbie Anderson in Best Ball and you know, even some season long stuff, he has just been a colossal disappointment.
You're you're right to think Christian McCaffrey.
I mean, if you're if you're fine taking the Panthers without McCaffrey, I think you wait.
So if he ends up being a late scratch, I wouldn't.
Yeah, I mean, could this get as high as like six? It certainly isn't gonna hit seven, But the fact that it's already at four is just showing a tremendous amount of respect.
For this.
Patriots team, who looked pretty good against the Chargers. Now it's a back to back road spot, which is for a young team, a young quarterback, that is a tough spot.
So again, probably.
Wait if you like the Panthers, but man, yeah, you got to see who's the quarterback and what shafe He's in a lot of question marks for the Panthers.
It's a really tough game for me, even assuming that Donald plays, just because I think that it's been shown a little bit here Sean over the last few weeks that Sam Darnold probably is not the long term solution for an NFL franchise at quarterback. I like the guy. I wish we hadn't ruined his career, but I think we probably did so. I think when you put him up against a Bill Belichick defense at this point, it's probably not going to end well, as most recent games haven't.
The Panthers, though, are getting healthy on defense, and again with Gilmour there, that's a big addition. It's a really tough game. So I understand why the spread is at fort like I can't take. I don't think I can take the under on forty one, but I do. This does strike me as like a seventeen thirteen game realistically.
Yeah, so yeah, no, it feels like it could get ugly, kind of like that the game the Panthers just played.
I mean the Panthers Falcons. The Panthers have been.
In a lot of ugly games. I mean, Eagles beat them twenty one to eighteen. That was a super ugly game. You know, they kind of got off to that hot start and have been flat a little bit, but again coming off a win, a much needed win. Maybe if McCaffrey plays, the spread gets down to.
Three and a half.
But I feel like, if anything, it could creep up a little bit because I could see a lot of people putting the Patriots in the tease.
Yeah, and again, you know, if you like the Panthers and it turns out Donald plays like at four and a half, he teas it up to ten and a half. Like, I don't mind that either, just in terms of what we're gonna see, but it is something where you gotta wait a little bit. Unfortunately, because of Sam Darnald, charters are visiting your Eagles here. The Eagles coming off the big win, are laying a point in the consensus line. There are some one and a half and the totals big,
it's fifty. So you know onn't knowl Sean looked like you figured some stuff out, which is run the ball a little bit. You've now got the worst rush defense in the NFL. Are we going to see a repeat here for the Eagles?
Yeah?
I mean every that Detroit Lions game was danger dangerous for Eagles fans not because it gave us hope, but because now we've become drunk with power because we kept we kept telling Nick Sirianni and the Eagles just run the ball, run the dang ball. And then they actually do run the dang ball, and it's a blowout victory. So now every Eagles fan knows exactly what to do, and we've been vindicated as fans. This is a little
interesting nugget coming in here. I mean, the Eagles haven't won a game at home yet this year, usually very good historically, even when the team's bad will kind of show up at home. All three wins have come on the road, So you imagine this is a get up spot for the Eagles, but also on the other side, it's it's a get up spot for this Chargers team. They've lost, you know, they lost bad to the Ravens,
lost a tough game at home to the Patriots. And that's a lot of travel too, like you talk, and there was a bye week in there, but still going to the East coast, coming all the way back to the West coast. Now going back to the East Coast for a non conference spot where your road favorite and Herbert seems to be struggling here a little bit.
He does, He definitely does. And you look at sort of his breakdown and he's either phenomenal and totally lights it up or he's got absolutely nothing going on whatsoever. And the thing is, I kind of like the Eagles defense. I think they're a little underrated here. So I don't know who's gonna win this game, Like, I don't feel comfortable and it's one, so it doesn't matter. Obviously. I
kind of lean the under a little bit. I could see this because again, the Charges are really vulnerable on the ground, and so I'm sure the Eagles, hopefully we'll try to run it, but I think they'll probably struggle through the air a little bit.
Yeah, every fingers crossed.
Fingers crossed, and the Chargers offense just looks again, a little out of sorts at this point. You know, traveling cross country here Philadelphia strikes me as a low scoring game a little bit. So the fact that total is fifty, I'll probably hit that now. It's fifty and a half at a couple of spots too, So it strikes me as an under type of game. This one. We all want to see Packers visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs are one point favorites and the totals fifty four and a half.
Sean any reaction here.
Uh yeah, you know it's man, I mean, what was the My reaction is how you know the mighty have fallen?
Because if you would have?
I don't know what the like Game of the Year spreads those ones that come out in June when you're when you're desperate for football numbers to break down, but I'm sure it was. It was well north to three, even even with the Packers coming in as a pretty respected team.
You know, Chiefs at home.
It's it's crazy how how much stuff has changed. And I think the public is going to be stoked about taking this Packers team. They got a little mini by here and DeVante Adams I think should be coming off the COVID list.
He missed that game and and they missed a couple of their receivers.
So because being on the COVID list, so ideally they I mean, there's serious issues in this Chiefs defense, but really the turnover issues for the Chiefs offense don't seem to be going away anytime soon. And clearly Patrick Mahomes is pressing like if Monday night at home against the Giants.
Wasn't a get right spot for this Chiefs team?
Is there a get right spot for them?
It's not here, That's what I can say. I don't see how you avoid taking the Packers in this one. Like with Adams coming back, which again he's supposed to be on track to report on Thursday, Alan Ozard is already off the COVID list ANDVS has been activated off of IR at least designated to return. He probably is going to come back, so he got a full compliment of weapons here, and the Chiefs look terrible. My real thing with this, Sean, is that like this is begging
you to take the Packers. I mean, everybody was watching that game. The spread was ten ten points, and I thought the Chiefs were going to cover that spread. And they looked completely out of sorts. I mean, Mahomes looks I made the analogy on our discord yesterday. It looks like a rookie QB at times, just given the fact that he gets back there, he takes forever, He runs around NonStop before he either makes a miraculous throw because he's Patrick Mahomes, or he kind of throws out about
or maybe you know, maybe Tyreek Hill does something. But it just looks like there is somehow, at least for right now, a formula as to what you do on defense against Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. You drop everybody deep, you take away the explosive play, and you rush him. And that has been working right now. Now you've got Patrick Mahomes and you've got Andy Reid, so
they'll probably figure this out. But even if they do, you have perhaps the worst defense in all of football right now against Aaron Rodgers off of mini by feeling really good. I don't see how you You don't have to run to do it. It's a point like if they're favored by a point, if they're giving a point,
it doesn't really matter. But if this gets to one and a half somehow the public comes in the Chiefs, I'm going to tease it up immediately for the Packers getting seven and a half, like immediately, I'm going to do that. But either way, I think at one sean this maybe not maybe I'll take a different tune. Looks like dig it to it, but is like a great bat.
Yeah. At the surface levels, it's hard to figure out an angle for the Chiefs, which is always scary. But the Chiefs have just been horrible against the spread, five and fifteen against the spread in their last twenty. Now, certainly some of those numbers were pretty inflated, you know, as we saw against the Giants. This is more just
basically like a pick them. But if you're getting down on those long style teasers where you're taking one or two point dogs and teasing them up past the key number of seven, getting it to that seven and a half or eight, and you know, Aaron Rodgers looks dialed in and they seem to get enough out of their defense. I mean, the Packers' defense played pretty strong on the road on the short week against Arizona. If they can get another decent performance, I think they should be in the driver's suit.
Yeah. They look great, and I am very happy, my friend, that when right before Rogers signed and there are these rumors that he was going to retire, there were still books out there offering them at plus one seventy five to win that division, even when it became pretty apparent that he was gonna report. So it's good. I don't know the consensus line here, Sean. It's all over the place.
With the Cardinals, and the forty nine ers, because books are basically like hedging their bets because they don't know whether or not Kyler. I think they're they're taking it easy with Kyler Murray. So I see it at a pick at some books. I see it at one. I don't know if you have a book that you see it at, but let's assume it's basically, I don't know one.
I assume that spread is essentially the forty nine ers right now getting one again in a spot where I think the books are hedging a little bit with a total forty five. Yeah.
Again, this is just clearly going to depend on whether Kyler Murray plays or whether we get.
More information on Kyler Murray.
I mean, my take, instant reaction and just the stuff I read early on is that I do think he will play.
I'll be a little surprised.
If he doesn't end up going, especially coming off the Thursday rest, but I think we'll probably have a better idea come Thursday if he's actually playing or not. And the line will tell you, because in the same way for that Vikings Cowboys game where all of a sudden the line switched from the Vikings being a you know, two three point dog to a two three point favorite.
You knew immediately. You didn't have to wait for the report to come out.
The people that are taking million dollar bets on this have the early action. So if you want to know whether or not to start Kyler Murray and your fantasy team, just keep an.
Eye on the betting line.
But I think if you can get points with the Cardinals, if you can find a book that offers points in the Cardinals, I think that's a that's a fun bet to take, especially them coming off a loss.
You know, they played really tight that first game, and really, if Jimmy Garoppolo were healthy, crazy that I have to say this, but if Jimmy Garoppolo were healthy for that game where Trey Lance started, I think that the forty nine ers might have won that game. And I think Mari's going to go. I think the bigger question is
how limited is it going to be? Because he avoids more sacks than any quarterback I've ever seen in my life just with how quick he is, and if his mobility is limited, that really puts a tie bosh on it a little bit. So yeah, this is just one where you gotta wait. I think to do it. Yeah.
I mean I think either side, you like, if you can get points, like if you yeah, I think if you like the forty nine ers and you can get that like plus two and a half right now for them somehow, you know, I would take that as well.
But I don't know.
I keep leaning to thinking that they that Murray's going to play. But you bring up a great point.
Arizona does seem to struggle in Levi Stadium, and the forty nine ers kind of have their number, and maybe it's going to be a situation like the Saints Bucks.
Where just the Saints kind of own the Bucks for whatever reason, especially in this short, sable sized Tom Brady era, that certainly could be the case.
I'm telling you, like, if this is if they if it is two and a half, because I feel like the look aheadline might have been two and a half. Maybe I don't know, but if it is that, I don't think I want it, Like, I don't I'm not going to run to take the forty nine ers or anything like that, but I just this doesn't strike me as a game where the Cardinals, even if Murray were healthy, is going to be able to just come out here and dominate like they the forty nine ers know how
to play them. They play him tough, you know. So I think it's just much more of it. I'm going to watch this game for fun and stay away from it.
From a interesting concept.
Titan Ah, Yes, can you that? Yeah, it's weird. I've done it. I did it one time. It was weird. All odd Titans visiting the Rams. No Dereck Henry now, of course, And the spread now is seven and a half from the Rams. Total is pretty high here at fifty three and a half potential, or at least that could have been with Henry super Bowl preview here. What do you think here on Sunday Night Football primetime? Seven and a half points?
Yeah?
Again, this one I think opened at seven and I'm surprised it's only moved at half point off to Derrick Henry news. I wouldn't this one again. I think it's seven and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if it creeps up closer to ten as we get closer to kickoff, or especially if the public's down early. I think they're just gonna look at the game and go, oh, the Rams at home against this Titans defense. They're gonna cruise. Derrick Henry isn't a part of the team. You know,
he's out for the year. He's such a big part of their offense and not gonna be able to move the ball. And you know the Rams they just traded for Von Miller. I don't know yet if he's gonna be able to play. Sometimes they need like a week to figure things out. But I think with Derrick Henry going down, and we see this all the time, I'll love the Mike White game where a big player goes down, and you know that week right after the team gets up for them, you know, hey, we're bigger than just
this one player. Now, the week after the emotional get up game, that's where you really see the impact. But I wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee really comes to play and quietly. Tennessee's defense, which has been so horrible, has kind of been putting together some decent games.
Now.
They let up a decent amount of points against the Bills, but they got the stops when they needed them, and they held the Chiefs, which who knows if the Chiefs are even good at this point right held the Chiefs the three points at all, which seemed pretty good. So their defense has has has gotten better here certainly.
And again the Colts game, you know they turned the ball over in their own territory early right there, they were down fourteen to nothing. But really, Titans, man, I mean, this is why Sean, you and I we referenced it on the first time you appeared on the podcast with the Nick Sirianni sort of bet. That was the second bet I took in the props bet draft that Sean and I are in together. The first one I took.
Actually like the odds I like the most were the Titans at maybe forty to one to win the Super And part of it is because I think that the whole is better than the sum of their parts, and that they're very well coached. They find ways to stay in games, they don't panic when they go down, and I think that their defense lacks sort of the talent, and that's why I think it's taken a little while to gel. But it's a very good point that they are playing a lot better now. We don't know if
Julio Jones is going to play here. You can't really stop the Rams anyway. So frankly, fifty three and a half I'm okay to go with the over, but I do lean the Titans here when you're getting more than a field goal. It is interesting though that it didn't move that much in the look aheadline. I mean, I get Adrian Peterson, you know, basically exactly.
It is funny there's only I think like three or four guys that have more rushing yards all time than Derrick Henry, and they ended up signing Adrian Peterson off the street. And quick quick fantasy note if you're looking for a quarterback or you know, maybe an.
Interesting DFS showdown option.
I do think Tannehill, especially moving on in the rest of the Sea, could be interesting because he's quietly one of those quarterbacks that will get a couple sneaky rushing touchdowns. So now you expect them to having to throw the ball more and and I think who's gonna get those goal one carries? You sure you're gonna give some to Adrian Peterson, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of those touches inside the five end up going to Ryan Tannehill.
I'lla like some bootleg stuff or some QB sneaks. So he's kind of an interesting season long fantasy player I think as well.
Yeah, I mentioned this the last time you were on. But if you ever want to know why, perhaps you should be taking DFS advice from Sean. You can just google his.
Name and DraftKings Baby, God bless.
Him, you'll learn why. I'll last game here Monday night football Bears are getting six and a half in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Total is a minuscule for Sean. I don't know about you. There's a very clear for me time when you back Mike Tomlin led teams and time when you fade Mike Tomlin led teams and at home with kind of laying a big spread does not strike me as a time where you back Mike Tomlin.
Be Yeah, it's really tough to imagine this Steelers team putting up enough points to cover any spread as a favorite, right, But then again, yeah, and I do think the Bears kind of figured out something offensively, now, granted they blew some plays defensively. I would keep an eye on Khalil max injury. I thought he was trending towards playing last week. Kind of one of the reasons I like the Bears there. He ended up being a late scratch he's dealing with
a weird foot injury. But they have a team hicks back. He's a big part of their defense, and I think their defense matches up pretty decent.
This to me is just gonna be an ugly slog of a game that feels like a field goal.
So if you can get more than that and four, five, six, even if it gets up to seven, But I I worry that they're gonna have trouble getting action on the Steelers at six and a half. I think I think maybe the betting public is out on justin fields right now, and Pittsburgh maybe a public team.
But have you seen Big Ben throw the ball?
That would be my question just right before you click that Pittsburgh minus six and a half or minus seven if it gets up there, just remember, you know, just watch him throw the football in that in that Browns game. And I had the Steelers yea money line because I don't know that spot. But you're right at home laying.
This is a massive number for this team right now.
Way too much, way too like there's just no way and I don't feel comfortable, like hopefully and maybe it was because there was no Matt and Neggy. They they certainly. The game plan was good for Dustin Fields. It accentuated what he does well. He's good on the run, on roll designed rollouts. They had four of them. They completed all the passes, including the touchdown. He finally ran like he has use his legs more. It's okay to do that. It's okay to let the guy out. Uh So it
was good to see and hopefully they do. Pittsburgh's a very strong defense obviously, so who knows if you regress a little bit, But you can't lay six and a half points man with the Steelers, and especially in the spot where they're, you know, their favorite at home in a game everybody thinks they're going to roll. No way.
This is just I'm not running to take the Bears, like I'm not, like, oh god, but there's no way I could take the Steelers like I would sooner tease the Bears up to you know, twelve and a half or whatever, then I would tease them down to basically a pick.
Yeah, And and they can't make this total low enough. I don't know, I don't know what yeah. Yeah, I mean, normally you don't take a lot of under forties, but this to me, feels a lot like that, like that Seattle Pittsburgh game we just saw a couple of weeks ago where it's ugly even if it gets over to.
Or this browns the brown Yeah, Pittsburgh.
Right, Yeah, it could be like seventeen sixteen feels like a very realistic score for this game.
Absolutely, I agree. I lean the under as well. With that, Sean, always great to talk to you and catch up. I appreciate you making time in the scheduling in a difficult week for me. So just remind everybody all your good stuff, man that you're putting out. I love your content. Just mind everybody where.
They Yeah, give us a follow on Twitter at Gambling Podcasts or follow me at Shawn T. Green and you can just go to Sports Gambling podcast dot com. We're putting out podcasts every day of the week covering all the sports. The flagship show, the Sports Gamling Podcast, I co host with my buddy Ryan Kramer, NFL, DFS, college football, NBA, We got an NBA show dedicated to the NBA. Just launched our NHL pod. So so much going on.
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It's a lot of fun sports gambling podcast dot com.
Yeah, it's great stuff over there, guys. You definitely should check it out. All right. In the meantime, I'm gonna take a little break a couple of days. Bogman will be back. Joe's off for the rest of the week, so Bogmin will be back doing a college football preview as he usually does. I'll be back on Thursday with our best bets for the weekend. For the NFL, I'll talk to them m