Early Look at Week 8 NFL Lines (Ep. 120)

Hey everybody, welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I am your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. Is time to take an early look at the Week eight NFL lines. To do that with me is our old friend Matt Parral, you know most of the Daily Juice podcast. Find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, thanks for popping on with me today. How is your Sunday for the NFL?

Eh?

It was okay.

It ended with me losing a teaser on Monday night by half a point.

Sough, just kind of how things go.

I bet the same game teaser a little about half an hour earlier. I would have gotten forty two and not forty one and a half, and the game fell forty eight, so I had forty seven and a half, so that was kind of a bummer. I had the Cults post nine and a half, so not the way that I wanted to end the week. Decent week on the Props, and you know, the Chiefs really were the only game I completely whiffed on.

So yeah, I'll take that one bet. Yeah, that's it.

That is that was something there. I still to mean right side, wrong side doesn't really matter, but I still think the under was very clearly the right side on that cold San Francisco game. I mean that the pass interference calls were just like NonStop and driving them down the field and everything like that. But is what it is. Let's rebound here, but let's take an early look and

Well, number opened up at three and a half, it's already moved to four and a half. So telling you what the Adams news is is worth the point, which is pretty if you look at what wide receiver.

You know that was before Adams less unless they knew that the line will move was before Adams, just so you know.

Okay, So, but it was open at three and a half and the movement to four and a half. So the first move and the number open, the first move was towards the Cardinals. So I guess with the Adams news, has anyone taken it off the board?

Is it still on the board.

I'll take a look right now, but last I checked it was still on.

But so yeah, I would say the money for the Cardinals is going to come pouring in here without Adams because talking about the number one security blanket, number one wide receiver in the NFL, and really the guy who moves the offense for the Green Bay Packers up against.

I think at the right side to.

Six six now and the total has dropped two fifty and a half.

Geez, well there you go, And well I'll say this. I would wait then, yes, and I would let this thing climb and see how you can get over seven and then take the Packers.

Yep, that's exactly right. That is the play, exactly what I was thinking, Matt. And it's going to continue to climb, I'm sure, because this is just an immediate, just reaction. Interesting that they didn't take it off the board even to think about it, that they just moved it right here to four and a half, from four and a half to six. So yeah, I think this is going to continue to climb here, and it's going to be

Well, but look, they just had it against Texans.

I mean the first half they were asleep, Sure they had they had to wake up, and they were thankfully playing Davis Mills, who couldn't do anything for that offense. Otherwise I think they would have lost that game yep on Sunday.

So yeah, I mean they are.

They're trending like a team that needs a loss to kind of wake them up and shake them up a little bit. So they're not running the table. They're not going seventeen to o. No, they're gonna they're gonna have four to five losses at the end of the year. And it's very possible the Packers win the game outright and.

They were a missed field goal away from losing to the Viking, so let us not forget any of that as well. Earlier in the year, Dolphins are visiting the Bills. The Bills are thirteen and a half point favorites with a total of forty eight.

What do you think, Look, this is a really interesting week because of the This is the week that de Shaun Watson has to be traded by Tuesday. So Tua made the said today he was asked about the trade rumors, he said, I do hear it, but I tend to try to ignore it. So he clearly understands his jobs on the line. He played pathetically really bad over the weekend, and I think Tua is probably not going to be a starting quarterback in the league next year.

The Texans don't.

Even want him back in a return trade, so it's not like, oh, you go to the Texans, at least you're a starter in the league. Still is only thirty two jobs. He's not going to be a starter next year, and I think he knows he's not going to be a starter next year. I'd be real careful of this Dolphins defense because I think the Bills are going to torch him. I wouldn't lay thirteen and a half points, but if I had to pick it, I would take Buffalo Oversuore.

I think I might like the over. I don't know about you, because I think Buffalo is going to put up a ton of points here. And look, the thing about Tua is, I'm we can talk about your proclamation that two is not going to be a starting quarterback in the NFL going forward, which may or may not be true.

But they love the Dolphins.

What do you have jump in?

Yeah, we talked about it on Sunday. You were on You're on the Dolph on Sunday, and you like to it now? And what is the deal with you and the Dolphins.

First of all, we were correct on the teaser. You know that plus eight and a half and I had them at plus two and a half, which they covered, which is fine. It's nothing. It's just the fact that, as you know, I do fantasy projections, and Tua for their offense is much better than admittedly Jacoby Brissett, which

So fun too. I just told you Ta next year is going to be a backup quarterback in the league, which you were agreeing with.

You put them on the same category as case Keenum.

No, no, I was asking you if you would prefer Case you and I can.

We'll have Baker Mayfield. The Browns already have a starting quarterback. They're not gonna go and have Tua over Baker.

I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is you're putting him in the class of like, how can he be a starting quarterback? And I'm saying, as of right now, name me a backup quarterback that you would prefer over to a tongue of I love in the league. I can't.

That's up the point though.

We're arguing whether there's a starting quarterback position that I would want for Tua right now and.

When you start Davis Mills, or would you start.

To The Texans are already telling you that they're drafting a quarterback next year. They don't want Tua, so that job's off the board. So then what other job are we seeing Tua getting to be a starting quarterback in the league And there isn't one. No one's looking at him and saying I want to it to be my starter.

Okay, Well, as much as people would love to be able to have us debate Tua for this entire podcast, we can save that for our other podcast, Dan and Matt fight over nonsense things. But for this one, I like the over forty eight night because I think the Bills are going to be able to score at will. And again, my point with Tua is just like the Dolphins are at least a more competent offense uh with Tua than there with Jacoby Brissett. So it's not as if they're going to be completely shut down by a

Over?

These two teams play games where they score a ton of points. In particular in Indianapolis. This is always one of the games every year to look at. When the Titans play at the Colts, this game historically goes over. I wouldn't play aside on this because I think I leaned. I lean Indy, But Carson Wentz makes some really stupid decisions a lot with football, and I'm really concerned about that. Titans I think will run all over Indy. I think

Do you think that yesterday with the Chiefs had anything to do with the Titans sort of, you know, buckling down a little bit defensively or is that all on the Chiefs just being completely out of sorts offensively.

It's the offensive line for Kansas City that cannot protect Patrick Mahomes and so the Titans secondary is still an absolute train wreck.

It's a mess.

But they couldn't give any time to Mahomes to find guys down the field because teams know that now after watching what the Bucks did to Kansas City, they do the same thing. They play zone and they rush and they blitz and they try to pressure the quarterback and they got home because an offensive line is absolutely awful right now for Kansas City. So that's the recipe. I don't think India's got the same problem. Indies offensive line, it's very good, and I think they'll tick up any

And so I assume though with the spread, you don't feel the need if you liked, which doesn't sound like you do right now, you don't feel the need to bet this now, right because it's at plus one. It's not going to move past like three or anything either.

Way, I don't think so.

Barring any injury news, I don't think so. I think if you want to bet this game, you could wait and make sure everyone's okay with COVID protocols and injuries and whatnot. But I think this really is a coin flip game between two teams that are are a little bit more similar than what the records indicates. And I think home field is significant here, but I do like the I think we're seeing a lot of points here in this game. I don't like either defense to stop the offenses.

Yeah, I agree. I think that Indianapolis with Carson Wentz fully healthy right now as he looks, has you know, stupid decisions aside, really has started, you know, even without t Y Hilton in this last game between Taylor between Pittman, they're really getting going here, and of course we know about what the Titans can do offensively. Rams get a second straight ginormous spread here traveling to Houston, laying fourteen

Yeah? Because they didn't play well.

I guess the Lions and I think there's a lot of anger there after what happened. I think the special teams coach for the Rams probably had a really rough Monday morning. And when you walk in and two faked punts and one on side kick, that's still three possessions for the Lions.

Not good from a Rams perspective.

I do expect them to go to Texas and take the living daylights unless Tyrod Taylor plays practice right practicing. If he plays, I would be a little bit more hesitant to come in and go heavy on this, But fourteen and a half doesn't scare me.

Even when Tyrod Taylor, I would take the Rams.

Do you think that the line will move if to Rod Tayler is named the starting quarterback here.

I think it's possible, but I don't know how.

I mean think the pros might move it down to fourteen or thirteen and a half. You may get a better number. I still think the Rams kill him even when we're playing. I think the Rams gonna kill.

Him fair enough let's get to the Panthers visiting the Falcons. How far we have fallen into the Panthers, as you know, mapped. I like the Panthers very much. Yesterday I had leaked off on that game. The Falcons are now laying three points total of forty six.

So many people screwed me on this.

You had it, I had it in both my circa teams.

Yeah, because you didn't like it.

I hate it. Didn't like it, you absolutely hated it.

Sam Donald going to New York, Everyone's like, well, Danny Dimes stinks, Joe Judge is having to explain why he's losing his team, and then like that win. The Panthers are awful without Christian McCaffrey, awful without him. He is their entire team and Matt Rule. Look, unless Deshaun Watson weighs his no trade clause, that team's in big trouble because they're hitching their wagon to Sam Donald. And Donald stinks, all right, he flat out stinks. People need to stop

Yeah, I can't take the Falcons. I tell you that, I can't take the Panthers. I tell you that, like, there's no way that you can take them. After watching what we saw in that game, and again they were getting apps, he was getting pressured. They were you know, Chewba Hubbard couldn't find any running room against the Giants, right, who get no pressure whatsoever. It was just insane. That team looks in disarray. I'm very concerned about him. I don't know how I feel about it yet, so I'm

Raress Man Kyle Pits back to back hundred yards receiving. Yeah, I saw a PFF tweet on Monday morning. Kyle Pitts has not dropped a ball thrown to him since twenty nineteen at Florida.

Kyle Pitts is a unicorn at the time. What's so funny, dude, is that, like I, you know, if I'm switching around the I got a bunch of different TVs going at once, and I'm looking at a bunch different games, Like I don't realize it's Pits because he looks like a wide receiver, like until I see the number. He looks like a wide receiver, but he's built like a tight end. Like those guys. It's just incredible to watch and they are.

Look, the Niners have got a real big problem at quarterback, and Kyle Shanahan doesn't do his team any favors when he's asked about Jimmy Garoppolo being a starting quarterback, and he's like.

I guess, so, I guess so.

Like it's I like Kyle Shanahan, but in the leadership category, I think he's lacking and I think he really doesn't understand how a team's going to respond to you, Like, you need the team to buy into Jimmy G until Lance is healthy to go again, and it doesn't sound like he's coming back for this game. So you have Jimmy g. He's your starter, your year is not over.

Addition, by the way, right not even joking, Yeah.

It might be a plus to not have him out there, But I mean, justin Field scores three points yesterday on the road against Tampa Bay. Buccaneers offense looked completely pathetic. Defense equally looked pathetic.

I don't know what to.

Make of this game, to be quite honest, I want no part of this game. I don't know which team is gonna show up and be it. I mean, right now, I would say that the Niners should probably win, but I don't know that. I mean, I'm not I mean running, you know, they're running attack should be traveling to Chicago, But I don't know that's a tough game to call.

Yeah, I am not scared off by the hook now. Oddly enough, there's one book that I'm seeing right now that it's at three, the consensive Line three and a half. The book that's at three, my book DraftKings. I feel

So this is now you're finding out why my circa team went in five this week because the both of them, Oh, Eagles, Panthers. My partner was just adamant he I mean he was in love with the Eagles. Huge bet on the Eagles.

Yeah, I can't believe they didn't even cover the teaser, man.

Like, just so that's what I did.

I tease them up to nine to nine, and I thought that was gonna be safe.

And Jalen hurts again.

This is the league is filled up with mediocre coaches, with mediocre quarterbacks right now. It's amazing Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts. You got Matt Naggy and Justin Fields. You just go down the list of these guys who are not I mean, Joe Judge and Danny Dimes. I mean, it is remarkable how consistent we are right now with mediocre coaches and mediocre quarterbacks. And Jalen Hurts is much like I've been talking about with Donald in Tua. Jalen

That is insanity. So maybe Jared Goff has a big game.

I am taking the Lions, and I'm taking them now because I I yeah, if you're gonna give me the hook right now, And this is from the guy who loves the Eagles, I just I think the bottom line is they play matty. We've known this about this, like say what you want about Dan Campbell, and I thought

Sorry, what am I missing? Why is it this? Fourteen?

Backup backup quarterback for the Jets? Okay, backup quarterback. You're not gonna haveving Zach Wilson for two to four weeks with the sprained MCL. You've got a a receiver in Jamar Chase who just broke the record for the most receiving yards in his first seven weeks. Ever, yep, and Burrow is ripping apart defenses like crazy and just carved up the Ravens on the road. Now going to the Jets. Why isn't this higher? I would DraftKings is at nine nine?

Draft Kings as well?

Yeah, give me the Bengals minus nine?

So what about nine and a half? At where it is at.

Nine and a half? Anything? Whow double digits? Give me the Bengals.

Do you worry though, man? I mean, you know the industry as well as anybody else. Do you worry when, like, I'm in complete agreement with you what I mean, Mike White, are really I mean, when you look at what happened this weekend and what we're looking at going forward, you see a line like this that screams at you, how do I not push all my chips in on the Bengals? Does that wear you at all? Just because of it?

Well? Look, the Patriots were the same thing.

Patriots were seven point favorites at home, and everyone was like, here comes the trap, here comes to the hook. It went to seven and a half, and the Pros hammered the Jets. Patriots scored fifty three points on this team. I mean, Pete mac Jones scored fifty three points on this team.

What is Burrow gonna do. What is Burrow gonna do?

I mean, I guess if you want to say, if you want to build a case for it, you could say, well, it's obviously a quote unquote letdown spot for the Bengals and they could be looking ahead. Of course, they've got the Browns a week after that divisional game. But still, realistically, I agree with you under and do it now. I would, because it's gotta climb to ten. It's gotta climb to ten without a question. So I'm gonna bet it now as well. And again DraftKings nine a little bit better

Yeah, this is a stayaway game for me.

I mean, these are the old black and blue divisional type of games that could go any which way. In the injury to Baker and whether or not he's playing, I mean, I think he's gonna be dealing with that pain for a long for the entire year, and he

It is unlike anything I've ever felt in.

My life because of the overall pulsing and throbbing and.

Terrible. This is a terrible one minute of podcasting right now.

So it so hurts. It's it's awful.

So, I mean, I get I can't believe Baker went back into the game. I mean, it's unbelievable how much he that kid is to go in there and with that injury and get hit by three hundred and fifty pounds men, I mean, nope, Noy'll thank you.

But on the other side, I mean, the Steelers.

Catching three and a half points is pretty attractive, but I hate that Steeler offense.

So this is a no play for me.

Yeah, Eileen, Steelers, to be honest, and if you like it for me, I would do it now just in case it gets to three, because I do think that the Browns are going to be a little overvalued based on what we saw with Denver, which I think was a lot more about Denver and Nick Chubb's gonna return here. But you got the Steelers off of Bye. You've got them as underdogs, which I always much prefer them under Tomlin, just as as a road underdog here, and they also

What do you think, I mean, what do you do with this?

This?

To me, if Seattle plays poorly, this is a game the Jaguars can win. And I just need to watch and see the Seattle defense as to how they are against the pass. I mean, the DJ Shark injury being out for the year stinks for this offense. For the Jaguars, They've already beaten the Dolphins, they had the bye last week off of the trip to London, and so now here they are preparing for a Seattle team that might be two and five at home without Russ.

I don't know.

I think the three and a half points is what I probably would take. But it's a tough it's a tough game to bet.

Yeah, if forced, I think three and a half. Like, if you're giving me your money map, that's probably where I would put it. But it's not something where I'm gonna risk my own I think no matter what the spread is, I'm not gonna feel comfortable with it because again, to get me to back RB and Mara, kudos to you who backed them in London, crazy man that you were, and that turned turned out correctly. What do you want? You had a lot of good reads there out with that.

Man, I gotta do a lot of research on this, okay, because the initial read for most people is going to be one let down two justin Herbert three road trip to California.

Right.

Here's the thing though, the Patriots against the Chargers and against I gotta go back and watch that game last year because they should have won this game last year at Los Angeles against the Chargers. This is one of the games where there were mistakes made by Cam Newton that cost the team. But they had a really good game plan up against that Chargers defense and they were.

Right there to win the game. So I need to do more.

My initial lean is Patriots catching five and a half, but I need to go in do some real research as to how this team's going to approach because they did the dink and dunk last year with Cam, and the red zone offense really bogged down. They couldn't get Cam in the in the end zone as much as they would have liked. This is a game where Herbert might get fluxed, you know, flustered a little bit in The Patriots might be able to throw a defense at

Sounds like a prop we'll bet. Yeah, what about the total forty eight and a half. I mean it strikes me there's gonna be points in this game.

Matt, Yes, I agree, Okay, over, I would definitely say the over in this game. I mean Mac Jones on passes that are under ten yards is completing eighty percent of his passes.

I mean it's just stupid.

I mean he's the dank and dunk king, and you can do that against the Chargers. You can know they don't want to have big plays and you can just guy find guys and if jhald Smith, if that's gonna be the general Smith that we see now for the rest of the year. Okay, the Patriot offense finally has a as a playmaker from that position.

Yeah, I don't know if he I hope he's okay. I know he left late with the shoulder indury. I haven't seen any update on that yet in terms of the severity of it. But yeah, and again, if you would wherever you are on the spread, I assume that this strikes me as the five and a half, the we don't really know what we're doing is basically where we're ending up right, I don't I don't see this climbing or dropping much either way.

I think news.

I think the potential for it to climb is there. I think public money coming in on the Chargers, okay, and I think there's a lot of love, especially out west here in Vegas. I think there's gonna be Charger money that will come in. So I think it could close at six or six and a half. I don't think it gets to seven, h but I think that's why I'm not gonna bet it, because I'm gonna let I'm gonna wait and see how high this number could get to. If I get six and a half, it

Okay, I love it. Washington is visiting Denver, the Broncos are laying three points. The total is, as always pretty low, forty three and a half. What do you think?

Yeah, so betham dims at three and a half. I would take Washington plus three and a half right now if you can get it. Yes, And I think the hook matters here. Look that this Broncos offense is not good. Teddy Bridgewater is not going to be the quarterback long term. They're another team that's going to be in the running for a quarterback coming up here very soon. And you know, if it's not going to be Bridgewater and it's going to go back to Drew Lock or whatever they're going

Yeah, and Heinike. I like Tyler Heinekey a lot.

It's been fun to watch Tyler Heinekey run up and down the field, and he was mobile.

Against the Packers.

And yeah, they had two really bad fourth down stops inside the ten yard line that decided that game.

I think Washington wins the game outright.

Yeahbviously the Broncs are gonna get back. It sounds like Jerry Judy in this one, so that will certainly help them. But they you know, Teddy Bridgewater is playing terribly and Washington still gets enough pressure. I think that, you know, that's been the big thing with Bridgewater right now? Is that you know, he seems to you know, be you know, have happy feet there in the pocket. It's probably gaming right There are a bunch of actually three and a

I think the over is probably in play here. I think both teams are gonna score. I think the Bucks are definitely gonna score. I like the Saints defense. I'm on the Saints over nine and a half wins, So tonight's an important game. I needed to win four and two because I think they're gonna lose this games with the Buccaneers, and they lost the division to the Saints last year.

I think the this Bucks team has been really focused.

On winning the division this year because they didn't do it last year, so there's some extra motivation there. And I don't like Jamis up against that buccaneer defense. That scares me tremendously. So my initial read would be to lay the four and a half, although there are some fives that are popping up right now, so it looks like the first move is to the Bucks.

Yeah, BETMGM. You know, I know that's you know, our sponsor here. Of course they are at five. The overall is at four and a half. I don't love it, but I probably would go with the Bucks if I had to go one way or another, and I'd probably do it sooner rather than later. This one, I'm confused about a little bit, Matt, so hopefully you can walk me through it. The Cowboys are visiting the Vikings on

I've got to be get pressed here because the Vikings are on my no bet list and I this is a standard alone game in primetime, so we always for the juice. We always like to have plays on it because everyone's watching it, so we like to get involved.

I don't know what to do with this game.

I'm gonna be honest here because the initial my first read would be too if you buy points to buy the two and a half to three and take the Vikings as a three.

Point home dog.

But I am awful with Viking games, and I'm not as high on the Cowboys as everybody else.

I don't like I guess that's okay.

So I just I don't like their defense, and I think everybody is just so in love with the Cowboys because it's DAK and they're five and one. I don't think they're very I think they're good. I just don't think they think they're as good as everyone thinks that they are. If I had to bet, I'll take the Vikings.

Yeah. That's interesting because I when I saw it, I would have expected this spread to be, especially given how public the Cowboys usually are and how well they've been playing and coming off now the bye, which I realized the Vikings are as well, that it would have been three or you know, even three and a half, and you know, them wanting to get the public to take the Vikings because this is the line I think that says, even though they're on the road to take the Cowboys.

Why the Chiefs in Clemson they're both laying double digits this weekend, and I cannot figure out why. I don't care who the Chiefs are playing. Why are they laying ten points? I know it's the Giants.

The Giants they're a mess. The Chiefs are an absolute mess. Yeah, And I.

Mean, fine, maybe they go ahead and destroy the Giants, but this screams teaser teaser teaser, like take this thing down to four and take Kansas City because I don't like this game at all.

But I don't think. I don't trust them to cover ten. I just don't.

Yeah. I mean it's rare you trust the Chiefs to cover just generally speaking, But I don't know.

Matt, it's a trap.

Yeah, Oh, I agree. Oh, I know, I know, I know. I'm not going near it. I'm not going near out of curiosity, where does this Let's assume obviously everybody in the Chiefs we know Mahomes is healthy. Let's assume the giants are probably not getting back Saquon Barkley. That's my guess. Well, let's assume they're getting back, Sterling Shepherd. They're getting back you know, a couple pieces or something here or there. Where do you think this line ends.

Up ten and a half, eleven and a half?

You think it goes up? Oh?

Yeah, this line, this line's not going down. Okay, our lines going like this line's going up. So then you wait, you wait then for the giants. Yeah, and if you want to tease it down, you do it now if you want. I mean to me, it's it's more or less. Getting it below seven is gonna be the most important thing. So this number is not going.

It's not gonna go to thirteen.

Okay, stunned if it's good, if it goes if it's that much movement, we get three points, so it goes to thirteen. I don't think so. So all right, I think eleven and a half. I think the line will close under twelve.

All right, Matt. The Giants offense thinks the Chiefs scored three points against the Titans, the total of fifty two or fifty two and a half. Any thoughts on it whatsoever.

I would go under. But I'm not betting primetime unders. Forget it. I want no part.

I want no part of prime time unders because of what we talked about right at the top. Yeah, these these referees are throwing flags on past interference. You breathe on somebody in the flag's coming out in particular in the red zone.

You know that's it. So just no.

I mean the Colt's got three touchdowns on passing interference calls last time.

Yeah, that's a bad beat, man, bad beat. It's all right, don't worry about it. Matt. Thank you so much for joining me. I was glad I wanted to have you on here at least for one of these early ones. We don't get a chance to talk as much as we used to. Mind everybody, of course, Daily Juice, but mind everybody where We find more.

Of you at Sports Talk, Matt on Twitter, Daily Juice on our Betting Pros YouTube channel for the video, and then wherever you get your audio podcasts, just go and search The Daily Juice and you'll find us like everywhere, like even Audible. You find everywhere on every audio platform you will find The Daily Juice.

And again, the Daily Juice. I don't just say it because it's under the Betting pros umbrella. It is one of my favorite podcasts for here. It's a great listen. Matt does a great job. He records it no matter what he's been in the hospital, he's had no cell service, He's done everything again and again. Don't forget guys, check out are discord over there betting pro dot Com slash chat. Matt is in there all the time. I'm being pulled in there more and more and I can't get away.