Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is early in the week, which means it is time to take a first look at the week seven NFL lines with me. Here to do that is Brendan Tuma, our friend from Fantasy Pros. Find him on Twitter at Too Much Tuma. Brendan, thank you for jumping on the podcast today. How are you, Dan?
I'm excited to be here. As you know, and with all podcasts we do, I look forward to your on air bullying today.
Yeah, that's how I work, and you're quite familiar with that having appeared on many podcasts with me, But this is the first time you've been on the Betting Pros podcast. So I am excited to have you here because I know you have been itching to come on and have me bully you on as many platforms as possible. Get into it. Let's talk about the latest software from bet MGM. New customers. You can bet ten dollars, you win two
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entire slate. We do some prop bets, all that great stuff, so make sure you are subscribed there in addition to the fact that it gets two three extra entries into this contest. All right, let's get into the games here. Let's start with the Thursday night game weird one. Here, the Browns obviously are dealing with a ton of injuries. There's a lot of uncertainty, so maybe there's value in
betting it now. Maybe we need to wait to see what exactly happens here between Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Junior and Nick Jubb, although latest news sounds like certainly Chubb is not going to be able to make it. The Browns here are at home against the Broncos. They are laying now three and a half points. Some books are already at three and the total here is a minuscool forty two and a half. What do you think of this line?
Yeah, so the Browns are really hurting with this, and you and I I think one of the biggest edges you can find NFL. You know, sports betting is just getting so much more popular these days that we all know the Baker Mayfield injury storyline, the Nick Chubb one. I think one of the remaining edges that you can find for yourself, that listeners can can handle for themselves is looking at offensive line injuries. Defensive player injuries, those
for obvious reasons, just don't get as much publicity. But the Browns in Week six they were out, they were without Jedrick Wills or Jack Conklin, So you know it's not just the injuries to the skill position players that are bothering them. And I think for most NFL teams, Dan, I'm sure you agree with this, Like if an NFL team loses their starting left tackle, you know that's a problem,
but most teams can you know, recover for that. It's where you get multiple two three injuries along your offensive line that real issues start to happen. So the combination of Baker, who is in the sling in the postgame press conference, not having their dynamic running backs, the offensive line being banged up. The early lean is just screaming Broncos to me, Are you in line with me on that or yeah?
Absolutely? I think that if you're listening to this and the line is still at three and a half, I mean, Brendan, we were talking, I mean I think it opened. What was it when it opened? Was it closer to five? Is that what the opening line was?
I saw it at Browns minus five originally, and understandably it's moved.
Yeah. I look, there are books already that are out there that are at three. As we said, it's at three at Fox Bed, it's at three at Fandel. It's still the consensus line again at three and a half, because that's where it is at Draft Kings points. Bet the majority of books. I would bet it immediately. You can get it at three and a half because if you're getting overfield goal here, even on the road with
the Broncos. I mean that the Browns are so incredibly banged up, and you did mention it that offensive line injuries are probably the most impactful from a betting line perspective. I mean, I agree that the public doesn't necessarily see that or feel that as much. But I mean, it's not just the fact that they don't have a running back. It's not just the fact that bigger Mayfield may not play.
It's not just the fact that olde Beckham Jner may not play, although those are all big factors, but it is something where again, the offensive line was absolutely decimated, and you know, the scheme is good enough to sort of get around that, but not against the Broncos, who are really good against the run. They're probably going to be pretty angry and pumped up here. They need a win here. They start at three and oh they're now
three and three. So I agree, if you can get it over, you know, even getting the field goal, I'm fine with it begetting overfield goal. I would love to get it. Any thoughts on the total, I mean, it's forty two and a half, so it's pretty pretty light here.
We always know that weird things happen on Thursday night. The games just don't always play out the same way they might have otherwise on a Sunday. So with that, you know, and all the Browns injuries, they think, yeah, grabbing the points makes sense. This is such a Thursday night game too, just in the sense where my instant lean is underdog and under expecting kind of a low scoing game. Here. The Broncos and Browns have two of the better defenses. Again, the Browns are a little banged
up all around, defensively included. But but yeah, I think that that would be the play that I would go to. I do know that myself and some others that I like to make some bets with we on Thursdays often prefer taking the underdog and under just because the games are are always so weird and you never know how those good to shake, so we will grab the points in this case.
Yeah, I agree with that. Let's go to The Falcons are visiting the Dolphins. The Falcons are laying two and a half points here, and the totals forty seven and a half. The weird thing here, obviously, is that the Dolphins declined the bye after London, so they're gonna be a little jet lagged, I'm tureing me, while the Falcons came off London and they are on a bye off the bye, pardon me, so they're well rested here. Calvin
Ridley should be back for this one. What do you think about this one where the Falcons are laying two and a half total forty seven and a half.
We should mention ahead of time that this is it's kind of a gross slate for NFL games this weekend. There's not a lot. There's a six teams on a bye. A lot of the good teams, the Bills, the Chargers, the Cowboys aren't playing this week and this game. I forget where I heard this, but I laughed when I did. It feels like we've already had this game this year. Falcons Dolphins too, obviously of the bigger underperformers this season. I do think it's time to start criticizing this Dolphins
regime a bit. I know it's easy to do so after they just lost to the Jaguars in London, and it's easy to do so because they only have one win this season. But they had so much draft capital coming into this rebuild in some of those first round picks. It's not just too they took some offensive linemen in the first round in twenty twenty who aren't even active on game days. It's just been a bit of a disaster in that they're on their third offensive coordinator in
three years. You add in the fact that they are coming off the London game and the Falcons are coming off a buy, and I would lean Falcons in this situation. I usually like to zig when others are zagging, and you know, take teams coming off a loss and fade teams coming off a big emotional win. But in this case, you just add in all those factors and I can't get away from the Falcons.
Yeah, I mean, I think I'm probably going to stay away from it because I do think that the Dolphins
are a little bit better than they've shown. They obviously have been pretty banged up at receiving or I think to help them offensively for sure, But I just I don't think I can fully factor in what it's like to come off London and come off a bad loss to a Jaguars team and then come back to the States and play a well rested Falcons team who again isn't quite as bad as they look sort of early on in the year where I think everybody was burying them.
So I think it's probably a game that I'm gonna avoid. I actually could see teasing up the Dolphins in a two team teaser two eight and a half points, getting them over both crossing both key numbers here. But as a regular bet, I think I'm just gonna stay away from it. But I think if you have to go one way, you'd probably go to Falcons, just because again, coming off the by, I just don't think that you can possibly back the Dolphins at you know, getting less
than a field goal here. How about Washington now is visiting Green Bay. The Packers are currently laying nine and a half points and the total is forty eight and a half. What do you think?
There are some big spread this week? This is obviously one of them. And with the big spreads a lot of time, I like to take the points. You know, NFL teams are usually closer in competition than the general public gives them credit for it. This is one where I would lean the Packers early, and it's part of it is just really a bet against Washington because it's you know, it's no secret their defense has been one of the more disappointing units in all of football this season.
That's a saying that we're hearing a lot lately, and it's not just that, It's not just that they don't know the talent like their d line is one of the most talented in the NFL. It's that they don't do anything with that talent. They don't run stunts, they don't design coverages, and their secondary is just really easy to attack. You remember early in the season, the Bills
offense were struggling. Josh Allen himself was struggling, but heading into that Washington game, a lot of people thought it was a good bounce back spot because Washington's defense, they just they play really static. They rush their four passers and they sit back and teams, smart teams and good quarterbacks can figure it out. And on the other side of the ball this week, it's going to be Amon Rodgers and DeVante Adams and Matt Lafleur and all those guys.
So I think this is one where the Packers can lay the hammer a bit. I know it's not the Bears, but I still expect Rodgers to own them in this one. Yeah.
I do lean the Packers here as long as it's single digits basically, which it is right now. Washington just looks like it's kind of in disarray right now. The whole team the whole year has kind of just looked unsettled, and we mentioned every week on the show. Basically the defense and how badly it's underperformed is one of the biggest surprises to me as somebody who obviously dives deep, not only on a betting side, but from a fantasy standpoint, you know, when we get into the season and makes
projections and everything like that. I'm just I'm shocked with how poor the defense is played overall. So you certainly could see Aaron Rodgers here carving them up and again, given how they performed against Kansas City, given how Taylor Heineg's coming back down to Earth, Antonio Gibson is banged up, he may not be able to play. Even Terry McLaurin coming into the game, They're just it's just a team
that feels like you want to fade right now. So as long as you can get it under ten, I wouldn't be surprised if it hits ten, by the way, because I think this seems like a game where the public's probably going to back the Packers here. Under ten, then you'll eventually get some resistance. But I wouldn't be surprised if it moved up a little bit. So if you do like it for me, I would probably hit it. Now, let's get to a pretty big here divisional game. You've
got the Ravens taking on the Bengals in Baltimore. The Ravens are laying six and a half, the totals forty seven and a half. What do you think.
Yeah, so with the big Bengals and the Ravens, we obviously normally think of the AFC North, as you know, very tough, run the ball, defense minded football. This season, the Bengals and the Ravens are two of the highest neutral pass rated teams of the season, meaning that in neutral gamescrips, they are a liking to throw the ball. Lamar Jackson is dropping back to throw more than he
ever has in his career. But what the Bengals are trying to do this season and the teams with Joe Mixon healthy, is really, you know, take some pressure off the offensive line. I've been pretty impressed with Zach Taylor so far this year. I think a lot of us, especially like you said in the Fantasy World, kind of expected the Bengals to come out and just throw and
chuck and have no regard for the offensive line. They're trying to establish a run game, but it seems like they do really want to lean on Mixing when he's healthy. He is healthy in this one. AFC North the spread, I'm not positive what to do with it, but I do lean the under with these two.
Yeah, this is just a game I don't really want to touch at this point. I hate over unders. It's stupid, I guess, and it's simplistic, but I really hate over unders with the Ravens. I just do because you know, at any given time, no matter what, they could look
totally under control. And you know, I think back to the Monday night game, you know, where they eventually won in overtime, and how to stagnant their offense looked in the first half against the Colts, and then they just went absolutely in the second half, which I think they're able to do at any given time. So this is really something where I don't have a great feel for it. I think if I had to go somewhere with the spread,
I would probably lean the Ravens. I have not fully bought into the Bengals yet, as impressive as obviously they were against I don't know whatever you want to call the Lions team from last week, but I'm probably staying away from it. I think right now, what about the Patriots at home taking on the Jets. Patriots laying seven, the total is forty two and a half. Patriots coming off a really really devastating loss here, a game that looked like they were going to at least be able
to win. Certainly betters are are burned by it, the betters who had both the under and the Patriots there last week. So lank seven forty two and a half in New England.
Yeah. So we like to joke about you, you know, being a little bit of an on air pully whenever I'm around on a pod. But this is I think where I get you back, because, as you know, listeners know you are a Jets fan, and I'm coming in here as a Patriots fan. My team is face. Did you say the spread for this one? I think I saw it at minus seven?
Yeah, at seven?
Okay? Yeah. So, first of all, the story of the Patriots season has just been Mac Jones, that the team has seemingly found their quarterback. I think Mac against the Cowboys this past Sunday was the best game I've seen by a rookie quarterback of any of the six rookie quarterbacks so far this season. I think the Patriots being zero to four at home is not something that necessarily should factor into Better's minds. But it's just like this Patriots team is not what it once was. Of course
we know that. I don't think it's dropped or their stature within the league has dropped low enough to the point where they aren't going to take care of business against the Jets. This is the second time we've seen these two teams play. I know that Zach Wilson and Robert Sala and company are coming off a buye, but this is a spot even with the seven points. And I don't love huge spreads when the team doesn't have a lot of offensive firepower because they might not be
able to, you know, really extend those leads. But given everything we've seen from the Patriots this year, it's just such a get right spot for them. I know they struggled against the Texans on the road. This is just it feels a little different now that it's at home and the Pats have had a tough schedule and they've gotten some of these games out of their way. So iilean PATRIOTSY. I know you might criticize me for calling it a bit of a homer pick, But what say you about your Jets?
Ah, I don't really have a good lean on it. If it gets too over a touchdown, I will probably find the value with the Jets, and I think in a vacuum, if you take a step back, this strikes me as probably a spot where more quote unquote sharp betters are going to be on the Jets. I know the Patriots beat up on the Jets earlier in the year, but it's a little bit of a different team. I think the Jets, not that they're playing well or anything like that, but they're at least a little healthier here
that get to come off a bye. The Patriots played a really tough overtime game. They're probably a little tired right now. And really the Patriots just they're not explosive. They don't have the horses. And again, they hung with the Cowboys absolutely as kind of I expected, and they find a way to hang with teams, you know, like the Bucks, where they're expected to get blown out, but they really haven't played that great against teams that they're
expected to dominate. So it's probably a stay away for me here at seven. If it gets to over seven. I probably will take the Jets here coming off the buye, but I doubt i'd take the Patriot Like I'm just not interested in backing the Patriots team right here with anything like a big spread. And we talked, I mean you mentioned it. There are a lot of expreads this week. So if you like underdog betting, which you know probably the quote unquote sharp side is going to be taking
a lot of the underdogs, this is your week. I'm not sure it's your week here with the Panthers though, visiting the Giants. The Panthers are laying three here. Total is forty three. A lot of low totals in these games, which again you mentioned it, this is not the most exciting week of football games. Actually, with so many teams on buy, a lot of the matchups are kind of disappointing.
But look, the Panthers are coming in here. They somehow made a game of that against the Vikings, even though they look like they were about to get completely blown out. The Giants got demolished by the Rams. You know, felt kind of bad for them, frankly. They are dealing with offensive line injuries, they are dealing with injuries to their receiving corps, not sure who's going to be healthy here, Giants getting three at home with the total at forty three. What do you think?
Yeah, so, I think the Giants is a little bit of a similar situation to the Browns, where there's just like so many injuries that we need to wait and see a little later in the week, who exactly is going to be playing, especially among their receivers, and if Sakwan Barkley is going to be back. But in general, this game and this game just comes down to two teams that one team I like what they're doing overall as a franchise, and one that I don't like backing
or like trusting. The Panthers. They are coming off three straight losses and they've just they've just been doing a really lot of smart things the past few years. I think they've added a lot of defensive talent over their past three drafts. Brian Burns, Derek Brown, Jeremy Chin, and then J. C. Horn this year before he got hurt, he got he went down, they instantly traded for CJ. Henderson. They traded for Stefan Gilmore, and I think Gilmore has a chance to play in this one.
Yep.
Not saying that that might swing you know, the line anything more than like a you know, half a point or something like that, but it is just something notable, And in general, I do like what the Panthers do as a franchise, whereas the Giants, I just don't love backing Jason Garrett organizations or teams that have anything to do with Jason Garrett. I just don't trust them to
make the optimal decision at times. So I'm going to go to the Panthers taking the small favorite here coming off the three straight losses and the Giants just dealing with everything that they're dealing with injury was.
Yeah, I'm in a total agreement on this one. So it's three is a consensus line over at betting bros dot com. It is three at the majority of books, but there are a couple of two and a half's out there. So if you can get it at five, bet at points, bet at a couple other places here that I'm looking at, I would hit that certainly at two and a half, but even at three, I agree.
I mean, I you know the Panthers now, I mean you see what they look like when you know they have to face a little higher end competition, and they've got no Christian McCaffrey, and they've had injuries you mentioned Horn.
Obviously they may be getting a little bit here of help coming in, but I still think that the disparity between these two teams, it's just it's too great at this point to you know, be thinking about backing the Giants at a field goal or less here if it moves beyond that, maybe because the Giants have a way of sort of surprising you not often as home, and you know about you know, Daniel Jones's record here at home when it comes to covering the spread, it is
not great as much better on the road. You can write that off as narrative, but I think that there is actually something to it. And the crowd is pretty much abandoning them, so the home field advantage does not mean all that much. So I do lean the Panthers here. I'd hit it three. I'd probably hit it even if it gets over field goal at this point, but certainly it's two and a half at a couple of bucks, and I would run to do that if I could. This is a big one. Now. After this Monday night game,
the Chiefs are visiting the Titans. The Chiefs are laying four and a half, and the total here is a whopping fifty six and a half. Big wins here for both these teams. I mean, the Chiefs kind of had a walk in the park against Washington, but they needed to get right game. They finally covered a spread, which rarely happens for them. The Titans come through here in a game on Monday Night football against the Bills. They
suffer some injuries through it. It sounds you know, I don't know how serious h Leo Jones's hamstring is, but you know, I'd be surprised at this point if he suits up on Sunday and there are coming off a short week in a hard fought game. So what do you think here about the Chiefs visiting and a crazy total of fifty six and a half.
It's funny. I almost wish I would feel a lot better about the Titans if they didn't just have that, you know, huge emotional, exciting win on Monday Night. You know, now it's going to be a short week for them too, just because of what we talked about early on a lot of times with betting, you know, the public has such short memories it's a lot about you know, fading teams coming off the big wins and you know, buying in on good teams that we know are good that
might have had a disappointing week. So all that being said, though, then on the other side, we have this Chief situation where there's been a lot and I know they kind of got right a bit against Washington, although that game was close for a little But there's so much talk right now about the Chiefs struggling offense, and really, when you look down at it, though, it's just about turnovers. It's not that they're struggling to move the ball at all.
They have nine turnovers within the opponent's forty yard line. It almost feels sometimes that they're just playing backyard football, that they're you know, not as focused as they maybe should be because they've been to the big game two years in a row now and they just you know, the regular season doesn't mean as much for them. But they're averaging an NFL high three point two points per drive, so they can move the ball. It's just about not
turning it over. The Titans, meanwhile, we know what they want to do is established to run with Derrick Henry and the Chief's defense is so horrible. In their last game against Washington, Washington's O line graded out by PFF as the best O line of the week, and I think, you know a big part of that was playing against the Chiefs. So I think this is the classic case where you have the home dog. The Titan strength plays into the Chief's weakness. The public is usually going to
be on the Chiefs. You just add it all up. And the Titans, even though they're coming off the big emotional win, and I weirdly don't love that. I still like the Titans in the spot. Everything else about my process points me in their direction.
Yeah, I just don't know. The Times are not a good football team, and I mean they're not a terrible football team or anything like that. I love the Times. I back them all the time, and I back them, you know, against the Bills here because I just think that their hole is greater than the sum of their parts. And probably Derrick Henry covers up a lot of ills. I mean, their secondary is terrible, and they again they
have more injuries here after this game. They probably should make a trade, but that's something not here or there. I think I might use this as a teaser piece here.
I think I could see this as a game where I pushed the Titans up six, get it over ten because again, the biggest thing with the Titan it's like Derrick Henry is not human and even off a short week, it doesn't matter his workloads, Like you can just run and run and run, and that is what they're going to try to do and control the clock and everything like that. Aj Brown thankfully looked healthy. No more food
poisoning at the very least. So it is something where I like that I kind of lean the under a little bit. It's just the numbers so high too, Like I get that, it's you know, you know, the Chiefs can score on anybody and they can put up whatever you want. Obviously came in with the under in the last game. Both these teams can put up points. But I lean under a little bit. Fifty six and a half is just I mean, it's just it's silly, you know, at this point, and not that it's wrong, but it
just seems silly. And I know public loves the over, so their lines are inflated a little bit. But I probably lean under. But it's not something where at four and a half again because it's an emotional spot, as you mentioned, and because they're coming off the short week and the Jefs are still pretty desperate for a win here so they can keep up with the division leaders. I'm just probably I'm only going to do it as a teaser piece. I'm not going to touch it here
at that kind of dead number. What about the Eagles, who I back routinely for absolutely no reason, getting three here visiting Las Vegas with the Raiders a total at forty nine.
So I didn't touch the Raiders Broncos game in Week six, and part of that was just, you know, coming off the whole Grooden situation, I didn't know how the Raiders would respond. I thought it was such a huge factor though, that it could go one way or the other. Either the team is demoralized and you know, they just lay an egg, or they play really fired up and inspired and they play really well. And that's what happened, is the latter situation. Now, the question is will that last?
Was that a one week thing for them, or is this going to be, you know, the new Raiders and that we can buy back into them similar to how we were during the first three weeks of the season. One little note that I found studying this game is that Derek Carr has been great against zone defenses this year and that the Eagles play some of the least amount of man in the NFL, so that would be
another reason to go in the direction of the Raiders. This, again, just the whole Vegas situation for me, is the biggest stay away in football right now. So I think a lot of it comes down to your feel on the Raider, and that's you know, I'm definitely you and I both know more analytically minded guys, so we don't typically bet off things like feel in that. But I think that this is what it comes down to, and that's why
I don't necessarily trust my numbers on it. I'd picked the Raiders if I had to because about that note about Car against zone defenses, but I just cannot overlook the coaching factor and what that might do to this game.
I don't want anything to do with this game as of right now. Now. It's funny because sometimes I say that on a Monday or Tuesday, and then I dive into it. I usually what just you guys know when you were listening, because I mean, we do our best bet Show on Thursday, and I generally I don't know what I'm like nine to three or something over the last four weeks because I take a lot of time.
On Wednesday is when I really kind of dig into everything as best I can, and then on Thursday as well, depending on when we record before I kind of reach my final consensus on it. So sometimes I have a feeling early on in the week and then I get to a different point later on the week. But I can't imagine I'm going to want anything to do with this game again. The Raiders like fantastic a great win over the Broncos. They dominated that game. That's great, But
is this now a letdown spot? And the Eagles, who I think are so much better than what we have seen from them, and so I always sort of lean towards wanting to back them, and I back them against the Bucks and that wound up working out, although it was pretty ugly. I just can't trust the coaching staff right now, Like I'm not impressed at all with what
Nick Sirianni has done. And again, you know, I'm hopeful that the Eagles sort of understand that they need to run the ball now more you saw them have success here with Miles Sanders. That is where the Raiders are a little more vulnerable than through the air. But man, this is just a game I'm going to stay away from, which I don't mind it all. You can stay out a game, that is what I'm going to do here. Brandon, you said you really really don't like these giant spreads,
and we've got several of them. So let's just start off with the Lions visiting the Rams fourteen and a half points. The total is fifty and a half. Are you willing to you know, take an underdog getting more than two touchdowns here with the Lions or what?
So? Yeah, just looking at my show notes here, and we're moving for listeners who are following along, We've moved on to the four five, four to twenty five pm Eastern time games, and this is where all the huge spreads are. So a lot of the public, I know, will you know, do teasers and parlays around you know what time the games are at, so they'll do a
one o'clock parlay, a four o'clock parlay. Because of that, with all the huge spreads in the late afternoon slay, I think we could see some really interesting teasers coming from all of these. Now, this isn't the one of the three that I want to take the underdog in. We'll get to that in a sec. But my note for this game is, you know, the Rams their thing
with their offense right now, especially for fantasy. We know that they score a lot of points and that they have a great offense, but they don't, you know, run a million plays a game. They're not trying to generate offense by pure volume. It's just that they're playing so efficiently right now. I mean, it's one of those things that before the season, this is a prediction that I know I had a lot of people had, but it
just worked out the way you expected. It's, oh, you take Sean McVay and you take away Jared Goff, and you're putting Matthew Stafford, and the offense is going to look a lot better. It's exactly what happened. We can all feel good about how that worked out. You know, that doesn't always happen with our preseason takes, especially when it comes to fantasy football. But so you add that in. This is the Jared Goff ball, by the way, he
is going to play against the Rams. So there's that name revenge game.
Man, let's go.
Yeah, So I would lead the Rams. This one is to stay away for me of the bunch, just because just because with the Rams, I don't know if the number of plays that they're gonna run is gonna lead them to, you know, extending that huge lead.
I have no interest in this game. Like I again, when you get to spread this big, it's nuts. It's almost impossible to back the favorite. And what's funny, Brendan is that before this last game against the Bengals, sort of the whole narrative on the Lions. I like the Lions getting three and a half. I didn't bet it, but I liked it more against the Bengals because they fight right, they fight with Dan Campbell, they put up they keep things close or they'll come back at the
end of the game. And then they got completely blown out against the Bengals. So the bottom line is just like there's such a disparity in talent level on these teams every which way. I mean, I think if you had to, the Rams could put up fifty points by themselves if they wanted to write, if they were like, you know what, we just got to keep our foot on the gas. We're gonna go crazy here. The lines would have, you know, difficulty putting up points. If I had to go one way, I'd probably go with a
favorite over fourteen and a half. And again that's just the consensus line, and that is where it is at most books. You go to a Fox, bet it's fifteen. You go to Fandle or bet mgm, it's fifteen and a half. Like, it's just nuts for me at this point, But I don't care, Like I'll stay away and my guess is not getting down to fourteen. So I don't think you have to rush to bet this wherever you are because it really doesn't matter at this point. But yeah, this is just crazy, as is the next game, which
is the Texans visiting the Cardinals. The Cardinals are laying a tidy seventeen points in this game. The total is forty seven, So, Tuma, what do you think about this one?
Yeah? These are just getting insane. I think the biggest thing to note Tyron Taylor with his hamstring injury. It doesn't look like he'll be back to this one, which will mean another week of Davis Miles. When it comes to these really big spreads, I think the thing you want to look at is the defense, because we know for a team to you know, get out your big league, they probably need to have some sort of explosive offense or at least, you know, an effective offense, which we
know that the Cardinals do with Kyler Murray. But I think the thing about Arizona is that over the past few years the defensive efficiency has improved ever since you know, Cliff Kingsbury got there, advanced Joseph as the defensive coordinator. What this means, though, is that they can hold leads. It's not like a chief situation where they can get out to these big leads and then the defense is just gonna let the other team right back in it,
which allows way back to a cover. Is the Cardinals defense is surprisingly good enough to the point where I could see them holding down this lead again. This spread is we'll still get to my favorite one of it still isn't kind.
Of Oh we haven't even gotten to your favorites by of the week.
No, we haven't yet. Oh my goodness's going to be coming up next again. This is another situation where I lean Cardinals because I believe that that defense can hold onto the big lead, but man, it is terrifying to take a minus seventeen.
I think I could do it Brendan like again here. I mean, if people have followed me, they know, like, I'm not often interested in taking these giant spreads on either side, just because it's so silly to do it, and I certainly don't want to take a favorite almost ever with these times. Again, I would take the Rams if I had to go one way and another, because the potential for back to our cover is just always there. Something flukey can happen, and you mentioned it right from
the start. These are NFL teams, like they're all NFL teams. They're the you know, elite athletes of the elite athletes, So having these giant spreads is really something that's crazy to me. If I had to go somewhere here, I probably would take the Textan just because I think that they're probably able to put up enough of a fight offensively.
It's not great. I don't expect to Hoteller to be back, but if you know, if the Cardinals take their foot off the gas a little bit here that they would you know, the Texans would be able to get it back to their cover. But it's just not something where I'm going I want to go anywhere near. I don't care where the line moves. But all I really care
about is getting into your favorite spread. Please tell me that it involves the Bears visiting the Bucks and the Bear is getting thirteen points and or the total of forty seven and a half.
It does. And I'm scared to say this on air to back Matt Maggie led team as my favorite spread of the week, But I do like the Bears in this situation. And it's again going off what I was just talking about with the Cardinals and being able to hold onto that big lead. That's not what this Bucks defense is able to do right now. They were having major issues in the secondary. They brought in Richard Sherman and now he's hurt as well. So right now the
Bucks defense. You know, we all expect the Bucks to put up points here, obviously, but I don't necessarily. I don't feel like I can count on them to hold that lead. Now, if you told me that the Bears were going to come out and that they were going to run that Cowboys game, remember Week one, the Cowboys, they just didn't even bother running Zeke. They would just throw a throw throw, which, as we've learned, is the
way to attack the Bucks. If you told me that they were going to lead into that strategy, I would love this bet so much. Even more, I oddly feel like I can't trust the Bears coaching staff right now to do that. And I can see, you know, them more so, wanting to take pressure off their offensive line, take pressure off their rookie quarterback by trying just to run into an absolute brick wall that's the Bucks d line.
But I do think you know, I don't think you know, in sports gambling we should necessarily try to predict what the coaches will do in that situation. I think we should just look where the edges are and the Bears passing game, I think justin Fields is getting a little
more comfortable. Betters might not want a bet on him because he hasn't erupted just yet, but this as good of a spot as long as the Bears a line can protect him for you know, at least a few seconds to get the ball out and expose that secondary. And you know, this is the exact type game where I think the odds for a backdoor cover are higher than in the either the rams or the cardinal spreads.
You know, I actually like in this game. I like the over. That's where I would lean and I would bet it. Now, there is a forty seven, you know there it's between forty seven forty and forty seven and a half. So if you're out of forty seven and a half, you want to wait for forty seven, that's fine. But to me, I agree with a lot of what you're saying. But I think to me that says more
of the over rather than the Bears being able to cover. Now, I know the Bears have a solid defense and everything like that, and they don't put up a ton of points or anything like that. I was I don't want to use the word impressed because I think that's too much, but I was less unimpressed with Justin Fields last week, you know again, and they he had a career high at least in pass attempts and completely and I think that you know, he has an arm. You can push
the ball down the field a little bit. With Darnell Mooney in this game, so I think, you know, with him being a running quarterback, not that it did Jalen Hurts all that much, but that you know, they were able in the end to put up points here, this does strike me as a game where both teams are going to be able to put up points and the Bears are going to be able to put up more points. And I think most people expect here with this game. And I do think i'd lean the over here at
forty seven and a half. Again, I'm not really taking I just don't want to go with the spread here at this point. It sounds like you like it at thirteen. What if it drops? Does it matter? Brendan? I mean, you know it's obviously under two touchdowns. Do you care about whether or not it's thirteen, twelve, twelve and a half anything like that? Are you just good with it basically at around that level?
I do agree with you that the over is, you know, the other play in this game, that if that's your belief of how this game is going to go, that I'm fine with betting that. Yeah. I would. I would take the Bears if it went down to twelve and a half. I do think we want to be priced sensitive and not just take them at no matter what the number is. But with these three huge spreads in the four o'clock games, at least in the Eastern time zone. I do think that there's something about Vegas is building
in a couple extra points towards the favorites. They just don't want to get, you know, crushed on the favorites covering. So I almost feel like we're almost with all these games getting you know, just tacking on you know, who knows how many one and a half, two, two and a half points to each of these spreads, because Vegas needs to somehow find a way to get the public
to bet on these bad teams. And I think, you know, of the three of them, the Bears is definitely the one that I would want to attack the most.
All right, here's one of my favorite games of the weekend, so I'm interested to hear what you think. It's Sunday Night Football. It is the Colts visiting the forty nine Ers off of by The Colts are getting three and a half points here. It's pretty much universal across every book. The total is forty five. You've obviously got the forty nine ers coming off the buy here. It sounds like
it's going to be Jimmy Garoppolo. The Colts put up a big win over the Texans as they needed to do coming off that horrific loss against the Ravens, they have some injuries. Of course, Paris Campbell's probably going to miss this game here with his foot injury. You've also got Ty Hilton maybe going to miss the game with his quad injuries. So do you have any feelings on this one? The forty nine Ers laying three and a half total forty five.
Yeah. I like the forty nine Ers, And I think Kyle Shanahan is just one of the most interesting coaches in football because I think when it comes to you know, general team building and maybe some in game management stuff, he's definitely extremely questionable and probably a bit overrated. But just as a pure play caller, I think, you know, he might be the best offense, the best quote unquote offensive coordinator in the league. And I almost think that
would be you know, his perfect role moving forward. But so for him to come off a bye and have you know, just two weeks to prepare, you know, all the plays that he wants to draw up to attack this Colts defense, I am interested in that. And I think the other thing is, you know, the public might be willing to go in on the Colts a little bit more because of how well they played, I'll bite
it coming against the Texans. One note is that Wentz earned the highest single game PFF grade of his career last week, which is really surprising considering, you know, some of the highs he had with the Eagles. But I think the thing with that game is is that it was perfect conditions. And I think that's where where we're at with Wentz. That if he has all the time in the world to throw the ball with good offensive line playing, he's playing against a bad defense, you know,
he can look still pretty formidable. But you know, going on the road on Sunday night, coming off the Texans game into San Francisco, I don't think that these conditions will be nearly as good for him. And again, just you know Shanahan coming off of bye, I'm going to try to trust the play caller in him. In general for season long stuff, I do think, you know, I tend to shy away from a lot of forty nine
ers things because of the questions I brought up. But you know, for this one game, I do like the forty nine ers here.
Yeah, I think I'm on the other side. I get that it's Sunday night football, and I get that the forty nine ers are off the bye. Everything you said is true, I just don't I think there are two sides, So number one, I don't trust the forty nine ers offense right now, and I think it's going to be Jimmy Garoppolo, which I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing for whatever they have. Obviously,
Lance was exciting but made a lot of mistakes. But they could have very easily beaten the Cardinals in that game. But they don't have George Kittle. I think that really hurts when you've got Jimmy Garoppolo.
You know.
Again, Elijah Mitchell is fine, but the running back situation is not exactly. They don't have you know, Rehemoster back there, which does make a difference. Brandon a Yuk has been
completely irrelevant this year. It's all Deebo Samuel. And conversely, I think the Colts are finding their footing a little bit, and I think, to be as fair as possible, a lot of it is just Carson Wentz being healthy now, and again, Wentz was horrific last year in Philadelphia, and I think almost all of that had to do with the fact that once that offensive line was terrible and he was pressured pretty much every time he dropped back, he got in his own head. He couldn't get out
of it. The offensive line for the Colts, I mean, they've been banged up, they've had their issues, but they're you know, you know, five hundred percent better than what we saw last year from the Philadelphia offensive line. I think that's given him a little bit of confidence. And again, yeah it was against the Texans, but Brendan he played very well against the Ravens too on the road in
that game. So you know, I think for me, I'm starting to more come to the table here a little bit with now Wentz getting healthier, with having more time in Frank Reich's system and everything like that. Jonathan Taylor is an absolute stud. They were using him correctly. This strikes me as a game that they're going to be able to keep close. And if I'm getting it over a field goal, which I think, by the way, it's
probably going to stay. I don't I don't think this is going to be something where again a Colts team going on the road on a Sunday night football game to take on a very very strong forty nine ers. You know, defense at home, you know again on Sunday night football off of bye I don't see, you know, everybody coming out here to back the Colts. But that's actually where I come in at over a field goal here, So I'm.
Gonna go there.
We're gonna be on opposite side of the game, which is fine. Do you have any thoughts on the total? I kind of lean the under here. I don't. It doesn't strike me as a huge offensive explosion. I know, forty five, forty five and a half not a huge number or anything, but it still strikes me as something where I don't expect a ton of points to be scored here.
Yeah, if anything, I could see, I agree with you that the spread will probably stay where it is, and that if anything, the over under might go a little bit up on the over. So if you do want to, you know, bet the under, which is my lean, I would maybe wait till later in the week to see where it settles in at. And yeah, I do think it matters. What you said about that is a good
point about Wentz getting healthier. You and I, you know, we came up through the Fantasy Pros news desk, so we're always monitoring the you know day to day practice reports, if a player is limited or full and all of that. And you know Wentz early in the year he was playing, but he was only getting in limited practices and now he's been the past two weeks, he's been getting in full practices, So there is legitimacy to the saying that Wentz is getting healthier.
And again you just watch him, you know what's going on. And the fact that he played in Week one mind boggling because again again that five to twelve week timetable. They really pushed them. And to be fair, their backup quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league. So I guess I get it in that sense. But now that he's getting healthier again, regardless of whether or not to Y Hilton can play. The fact that Michael Pittman Junior is there, their scheme opens up everything. And
again Jonathan Taylor and their defenses is fine. You know, it's not quite as strong as it was. Their secondary has been really banged up all year, but I don't think that matters that much against the forty nine ers. Again, great coaching staff, they've had an extra week to prepare. That's a great thing for them, but I still lean towards the Colts at overfield goal. Last game here, Monday night football. You know, you go back a year, Brandon, and you go back two years, this game would be
the most exciting game history man kind. Right now, it's very much a all right, it's Monday Night football, so I'll watch it. The Saints are visiting the Seahawks. The Saints right now are laying five points. The total is forty three and a half. Man, again, you go back a year or two, the total in this game is like fifty five and a half at this point. But what do you think here, Tuma? You know you've got I'm sure Geno Smith again. You know, you know they're
kicking the tires on the quarterbacks. But I'm sure it's going to be Gino Smith here again for the Seahawks. What do you think, man?
Do you have this up? Did this move already a point or two in the direction of the States? I think it might have opened at three and a half.
Yeah, I mean, there are some books that are still out there at four and a half at this point, but it's the consensus is five. When I'm looking through all the books, almost everyone is at five There is a five and a half out there at FanDuel, there's a four and a half at bet MGM. So it's all over the place. But yeah, it moves here obviously, you know from what we saw on Sunday night.
Yeah, the more the higher it gets, the more scared I get, because that came in prepared to, you know, really talk up the Saints in this spot. I think the Geno Smith factor all the you know, maybe it's just you know, the crowd that I follow and interact with on Twitter, but it feels like a lot of people really want Geno Smith to do well, and they're rooting for Gino Smith and he just already had a prime time game and he helped you know betters who might have you know, wanted to bet on him cover.
And now there's another chance, you know where it's you know, an Island game and people can come in and say, oh, I want to bet on Geno Smith. You know he did well for me last week. And you know, the Seahawks are at home and everything too, But man, I do kind of want to fade Gino at this spot. I know that's nothing crazy to say for when it comes to you know, sports gambling people who were betting against Geno, you know, five eight years ago when he
was a starter for your favorite team, the Jets. But I just think, you know, the Saints again coming off of buy I don't want to put too much weight into that with all these games, but it is a little bit of a factor. I also think that there's now tape out there of what Seattle wants to do with Gino. I mean, they didn't change things up too much as to what they did with Russell Wilson, and you know, week to week, Pete Carroll isn't the type where he's going to overhaul the game plan. You know.
The Seahawks kind of are what they are and they try to go out and match teams and they often do well. But I just you know, again coming off the high of Gino, I would you know, like it a lot more. The closer down you can get to, you know, whatever it is, four three and a half, maybe we'll see where the line goes. But so as of right now, this is one I definitely wait on
to see where it settles. I want to be on the Saints, but I also again want to be price sensitive and I don't want to be taken, you know, minus five and a half on the road for on the other side of the ball. Let's be honest, I'm not sure we can fully trust in Jameis Winston either.
Yeah, this is that I make the Princess Bride analogy a lot. I clearly cannot choose the wine in front of me, and I clearly cannot choose the wine in front of you, which is something you probably don't get because you're ten years old. But regardless, I don't know what to do with this one here as I look at it. It's just something where Look, the Seahawks, they played better than expected, I think, you know, even Pittsburgh here, you know, against the Steelers, they put up a fight.
There were moments for Gino, you know, before he eventually blew it. But they're going to be tired here again. I mean, they get the extra day, so even though they played Sunday night. You've got the Saints coming off a bye. The Seahawks, you know, they want to run the ball, but they it's unclear whether or not Alex Collins is even going to be healthy for this game here. Coming into the game, they just don't really have the horses.
The Saints defense is very solid, but the dead number of five, it's just not a game I really want to go near, you know. I And again you think about it, Maybe it's a teaser piece. Maybe tease it up to eleven, you get it above ten, But even then, I just don't. You know, the Seahawks are well coached, but you know, the Saints at any given moment, even with James Winston out there, you know, can put up you know, a thirty spot if everything breaks right for them.
They're not gonna have Michael Thomas back or anything like that, but I'm not sure it matters when you get them off buy here. So this is this is a really gross slate of games, Brendan, Like this is I'm sorry that we had you on for what amounts to you know, a slate that probably nobody really wants to wants to bet at this point. But your favorite bet, Brendan, as you look at this weekend, I mean we talked about
a little bit. Is it the Bears getting thirteen or is that just your favorite of the big spreads.
That's definitely my favorite going in right now. Yeah, I was gonna say, I appreciate you having me on on the grossest slates.
So yeah, that's the only way I get on. That's it.
But part of part of that is, like like we said up top, you know, the six teams on buy, a lot of the good teams are on by So for me just looking as the overall slate as the as a whole, you know, Washington is still the Washington defense is still just a unit I really want to attack and I just really trust you know, Anne Rodgers and Matte Lafour what to do in that spot. And then on the other side, it is you know, for an underdog pick, it would be the Bears getting plus
their team. I just I really think when it comes to those big spreads that the thing that you want to look at is the favorites defense and whether or not we can trust them to protect those big leads and give us insurance against you know, backdoor covers.
Yeah, you know, whenever you're listening to this, I do like the Broncos getting three and a half, which I would like that again overfield goal for sure. I lean the Panthers getting three against the Giants as well visiting New Jersey technically, which I'm there. I like the Cults getting three and a half. I mean, maybe I'll feel differently about this once I dig into them, once I look a little more into the trends and everything like that.
But I feel like the Colts are, you know, something where they could have let even against the Texans, they could have let that Monday night completely derail their season. They didn't. They played well, and they did exactly what they needed to do, and I could see them coming out here and putting up a big effort. So that's why Lean, Brendan, thank you for doing I talk to every day anyway, Brendan, so I appreciate it you you know,
doing it on a podcast as well. Remind everybody where they can find you and more of your work.
Yeah, I'm on Twitter at too much too. Might do a lot of fantasy writing for Fantasypros dot com. You know a lot of base we're in the offseason right now, but also you know several NFL articles a week, a lot of the expert notes that you read when you click on a player on Fantasy Pros and you go to that little note section. You can find some of my rating on that as well. Dan, this was a lot of fun. I appreciate it.
It was, and I will say for baseball. By the way, if you're listening to this, you're probably just a gambler, sports gambler generally, probably not limited to just football. There was a lot of MVP betting talk that we had on the fans Bro side of our football podcast for baseball, which again we do a lot of. And so if you listened, certainly to Joe who hosted one of the shows, you probably got in on Sho Hao Tani very early.
You also got in on Bryce Harper as an MVP very early when it was plus three thousand, which right now looks like the favorite. So it's a good listen for that as well as just if you do happen to play fantasy. All right, guys, we're going to be back as usual on Thursday with our best bets of the weekend, where we have been very very You're hot right now, so that is great, So make sure you're
subscribed here again. Go to our YouTube channel a YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros to make sure you are subscribed there as well, and I will talk to you again on Thursday.