Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is time for an early look at the week six NFL lines, and to break it all down with me is my friend Mike Randall from the Action Network. You can find him on Twitter at Randall Rant. Mike, thanks for coming on the show.
How you doing, Dan, I'm doing great. It's an honor. Week six here, refreshed and replenished from an exciting Week five, we can hit week six and go over all the games.
First of all, is the second time we've been talking that you've said that it's an honor to be on this podcast, So I feel like you have definitely put this up way too.
High on like a pedestal.
Right, all right for me, I'm fine to be here. It's nice to have you whatever. I don't really care that much, but anyway, let's get into it.
We got it.
You're right. It was a crazy week.
Watching last night was just nuts, absolutely nuts. You know, we do a lot of fantasy, obviously, and it was just insane, completely decided fantasy. I was thankfully on the Colts plus seven and a half did you climb to it at the very end, so thankfully, but it was getting a little nerve wracking there.
Anyway, let's get into it.
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Definitely Deally juice. Juice one hundred is of Codett bet MGM. All right, Mike, we walked through it a little bit. Are you ready to get going? Walk through some of the lines.
Let's go through them. We'll run through them. Dan, if you want, walk over whatever you want.
I should have you on this podcast every week. Let's go with.
The Bucks are visiting the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. The Bucks are currently laying seven. The total is fifty two and a half. We obviously have some unknowns a little bit here. You've got maybe Rob Gronkowski plays. Hopefully we'll know that soon. Brady has the big rap apparently on his thumb. Chances are he's going to play. What do you think here with the point spread of seven.
Well, I'm going towards the Bucks. Do you know Dan that the Buccaneers have allowed to opposing quarterbacks a grand total of thirteen yards this year on nine attempts. On the other side, we have Jalen Hurts here second among all quarterbacks and rushing yards. Something has to give. I'm gonna go with the Bucks defense. The Bucks play at a real fast paced Philadelphia has been tough. They battled. They had the great comeback win against Carolina this week.
But Tampa Bay has just been clicking. Has so many weapons, Antonio Brown, Tom Brady, the offense is so efficient. I just don't see a way that Philadelphia is gonna be able to generate enough points if they're not dominant on the ground, and they're not going to be. Jalen Hurts has been oppressive for fantasy owners. They love him because he finds a way to get to those twenty to twenty five fantasy points, but I don't trust their passing attack.
The Eagles always play hard, have a strong defense. It looks like they'll be without Dallas Goddard this week, also, who was just placed on the COVID list. Bucks are also four and one to the over this year in their games. This game is hovering in that low fifty range. I think it's gonna go well. Over games in prime time were really hot going to the over, then they slowed down in Week four. I think this one picks up again. The Eagles always can score points late. I'm
gonna take the Bucks and lay the points. I wish it was at six and a half, which it was at earlier in the week, but I'll lay this here for the Buccaneers on the road.
It is oddly enough, it is at six and a half at my book, thankfully at DraftKings, so I will be able to take it. But I am in agreement with you all the way around. And again, people have been listening to this podcast now, I basically back the Eagles every week we have our three best bets. I took the Eagles this week against the Panthers.
I like, sort of.
I think there's so much more under the surface with the Eagles, but not in this game right now. I really don't see how it's gonna happen. And again, the total, you're right, do you think it's gonna move by the way, I mean, I assume it's probably seven. I feel like it's probably where other than DraftKings. Seven is probably where it lands in the end. I mean, we all have a couple of days at this point, but.
I think it's seven. You don't want to give that seven and a half. And we saw last night with the Colts and the Ravens how important that seven is. That's the place it's gonna end up. I just see this game being very similar when the Chiefs played at Philadelphia and it just gets away from them late couple turnovers there. They will battle with Hurts, but I don't see a situation Dan where Hurts and the Eagles offense
can dominate on the ground. And if that's the case, this game could get blown wide open.
I mean, they're not even gonna Nobody even attempts at this point to run the ball whatsoever. It's gonna be interesting to see what Hurt says. But it was a great sat that you gave there about quarterbacks rushing. Let's go to the Dolphins visiting the Jaguars. Dolphins are laying three and a half right now in the total is forty seven.
What do you think.
Favorites in the London game over in the pond nineteen to ten against the spread. That's sixty six percent. Jaguars have their bye week coming up, and there's a lot of reports that Urban Meyer will be fired, so you can argue he's a dead man walking here. Miles Gaskin came alive for the Dolphins. He was the PPR RB two and the Jags are just dreadful on defense, thirty first overall, only behind the Chiefs. I trust Brian Flores more getting his team ready. There's not gonna be Will Fuller.
There's injuries on both sides. No DJ chalk for Jacksonville. I just think that the Dolphins right now are the more cohesive unit. I think they're better coached, and I think they find a way here with a little more talent than a Jaguars team that is just going in the wrong direction. I do like the under here, though, I have to tell you the Jags in Miami, they're both very slow in their pace. I know that the over got there last week in sort of an odd
situation at the end of the game. But I like the Dolphins to win this game to cover the number, and I do like the under here. Over in the pond with this game between the Jags and Dolphins.
This is where you think it ends up, by the way three and a.
Half, Yeah, I think so. They're gonna those key numbers are three and seven, so they're gonna want to keep it there to try to attract the fifty to fifty action. But I just don't think it's gonna matter because I think the Dolphins here finally have found a running back that they need, Jacoby Brissett, is very solid. Trevor Lawrence has had some turnover problems. They still should have beat the Cardinals in that game except for that ridiculous flea flicker at home that was a pick six. So I'm
just trusting the better team. Other Jaguars going to break through here for a lame duck coach over in the pond against the Dolphins, I don't see it.
Hey, can I ask?
Because I think and again I'm being as totally honest with our audience as possible as I said. I was visiting family in New York. I've been keeping up with the news. I've still been working, but I've been driving pretty much all day. I there seems to be some kind of remote optimism that Tua could potentially play in this game.
Or am I totally off on that? Is it just definitely preset in.
This I'm hearing that I think it's gonna be Brissett. If it was Tua, I would feel even stronger about this because I think he comes back and he gives them, you know, he still has that talent. People are down on two are very polarizing in Miami. If he comes back, I like it even more. I'm making this pick based.
On Bressett perfect.
That's exactly what I thought, by the way, because I also like it more if Tua comes back, and I agree like I was very high, again mostly from a fantasy perspective, but on what we were going to see from two and now they've got injuries. Who who knows a Parker is going to play, and as you said, they're already down Will Fuller. I don't think it matters. I think they can easily take this game. The Jaguars are in disarray, and you're right after that bye week, we're
going to see what's coming up. The Vikings now are visiting the Panthers. The Panthers are laying a point and the total is forty six.
What do you think about this one?
I like the Vikings here. I have had some strange attraction to the Minnesota Vikings all year. I trust Mike Zimmer. I think this defense is going to improve. They should have had a couple more wins. Of course, the miskick against Arizona. They were gaming at Cincinnati in the opening game. Both Carolina and Minnesota are great against the pass. The Vikings do need Dalvin cookback. I'm hoping he returns here. Alexander Madison is fine. But I like this Vikings team.
I think they're gonna get better as the year goes on. Now, the line opened at three and dropped despite the overwhelming amount of bets and money are coming in on the Panthers. I think the Vikings are very live underdog here. People are going to be off them because you can argue they should have lost against Detroit last week. No problem, I like the Vikings. I think the Panthers are a little overrated right now. Sam Darnold's been fantastic. I don't
think last week is going to repeat itself. But I think this is a very close game. I think it's a low scoring game and I will take the Vikings here to pull the upset straight up against the Panthers.
Yeah, I think that's right. Again.
I actually thought very disappointing with the Vikings because I mean they were laying I think it might have closed at ten. It was nine and half when I saw it early on the week. I thought they were gonna cover. I thought they were gonna absolutely blow the doors off that game, and they didn't. And they just couldn't put the lines away. Now admittedly they should, I mean, you
know they fumbled at the end. The fact that they won on the last second field go like they also fumble the ball away that allowed the Lions obviously to score and take the lead. But I agree, I've kind of look, man, I get that the Panthers start out hot, their defense played has played better than expected generally, and it's fairly strong. But realistically, I've seen Sam Donald play for years. This does not look like a different version of Sam Donald right now. So I'm all about fading
the Panthers. I agree with you right now, even on the road, I would. I do like the Vikings here. Bengals are visiting the Lions. The Bengals are laying three and a half. The total is forty seven and a half.
What do you think?
You know, the Lions have played very tough and if you look at the stats, they don't look that great with DVOA. But I like the Lions at home here getting that number. That is a key number you're going to give to me. The Bengals are going on the road. They fought against that Packers team. The Lions should have won this game. They are still fighting for Dan Campbell. DeAndre Swift has been absolutely fantastic and the Bengals get gashed by opposing pass catching running back second most targets,
third most receptions. I think this is a possible win for the Lions at home. I think they're gonna get off the schneid here and find a way to beat a Bengals team that still has troubles Dan on that offensive line, Dan Campbell gets that defense fighting Jared Goff. Hopefully Hockinson is able to play and can be effective. I like the Lions here. That's a lot of points to be laying with a Bengals team on the road.
They have played well, the defense has played well, so again, I like the under here, but I'm not at the point where I'm laying points with the Bengals on the road yet, not against the team that will respond positively to that Dan Campbell press conference after the loss last week.
This strikes me as a game where the public is going to be more on the Bengals and the sharp betterers are going to be more on the Lions, right because as long as you are getting that hook, there's going to be value with that on lines at home. Who again, as you mentioned, they play their butts off all right. They may not have the talent right now. Their offensive line has been decimated another injury a wide receiver right now with quint Stivas and the collar bone, but they have enough.
Sort of wherewithal I think to keep this game close.
So if you are getting overfield goal out of curiosity, do you think, because I'm assuming right now, that when you're going to count the number of bets that come in, it's going to be heavily on the Bengals. When you're gonna count the money, it's going to be closer to fifty to fifty, maybe even lean the Lions. Do you think the Lion stays at above the field goal? Do you think there's any possibility of the books putting it down, in which case it's better to grab it now.
Yeah, the bets are probably about two to one to the Bengals right now, but the Lions are getting the majority of the money. Of course, I love those situations where the majority of bets are going one way and the line moves in the favor of those people that are betting, because it sort of gives you an idea, if Vegas has an idea how this is going to go. But the Lions three and two against the spread despite not having a win and two and zero against the
spread at home. Those bets are going to come in on the Bengals. But I like the underdo here grabbing the points.
Love it.
Texans are visiting the Coults. Killer for the Colt I feel so bad right the Cults. The Cults are laying nine and a half here at home against the Texans.
Total is low forty two and a half. What do you think?
Yeah, I like the Colts. The Cults are gonna make some noise in this division when all is said and done. I remember seeing Dan beginning of the year, like ninety five percent of the bets in that AFC South were going on the Titans. It was almost like a FATA comp play that the Titans are going to win the division. I still think the Cults are going to have something to say about it. That was a tough, tough loss last night. Yeah, they found some things. Jonathan Taylor's over
under proper receiving yards is twelve and a half. He goes right away, goes seventy three yards right to start the game.
I love it.
Yeah, Yeah, they've been Michael Pittman should do some things. And I also believe in something I call the law of efforts. So the Texans really came out against the Patriots. They gave it there all. They almost had that game won. Now they have to go on the road against the division rival that's going to be angry, that has not won a lot of games to start the year, that's having a disappointing season. This one reeks to me to be a blowout. I understand Davis Mills played well. I
think they can scheme something for Brandon Cooks. This is a cult win, I think comfortably by double digits. I know I have to lay a lot of points, but I'm gonna do that here With Indianapolis.
This is interesting to me, Mike, because of the fact that I think there's probably a line of thought out there that just said the Colts not only are they going to be on a short week, of course, but they just got their guts ripped out in like the most painful way. Pageant you might be thinking they might mail. I mean, it's one in four at this point. The fact that you're talking about the division is fantastic actually
just for discussion points. But you think that despite that, despite the short week, they are gonna come out here and make a statement in conjunction with the fact that the Texans probably poured their heart and soul into that game against the Patriots and maybe a due for a little bit of a letdown.
Dan, I've seen it before. I think Frank Reich is a solid coach. If this was a situation like Jacksonville with Urban Meyer, no way. But I think Frank Reich is a good coach. They come home, He's going to have this team ready. They're not going to mail it in, and they've started to unleash Jonathan Taylor. Paris Cambo was involved as well. Moley Cox at a couple of receptions, I think this is a surprise. I know most people
will grab the points. To me, I was a little surprised that it was high, but then I realized, I like the Colts. I feel like they're almost tempting you to take the Texans. Yeah, Texans almost beat the Patriots, so they can certainly cover ten. I'm gonna go the other way. It reminds me of the Washington Buffalo game from a couple weeks ago, when everyone was wondering what's wrong with Josh Allen. That line was nine and a half and then the Bills ended up blowing him out.
I think the Colts have a big game here on Sunday.
Yeah, I love it actually, And I love what you're saying because when you do look at the line, you do say this is a you have to take the Texans on this line like that, that's what it's telling. And whenever you see something like that, you're like, Okay, I probably don't need to be taking the Texans. And again with the Colts, even with all of that, there are so many positives that you could have taken away. I mean, Rodrigo Blanket Ship got hurt in the game
or early on in the game. If he's not hurt, they win that game. They suffered a massive amount of injuries just as that game went on on defense and stuff like that. Maybe they hold the ford of that, so it's not as if it was a pure choke job like they obviously could have. And Carson Wentz like looked fully healthy. Jonathan Taylor is running extremely well. Now I'm starting to buy into this and it's making me a little annoyed. So let's get to the next game,
which is the Chiefs visiting Washington. The Chiefs are laying seven on the road. The total fifty five and a half, by the way, just came across the wire as we were recording this that Clyde Edwards Hilaire. We knew he was going to be out, but he's officially been placed on injured reserve, so he's gonna be out for at least three weeks. God Chiefs saying.
Seven desperate time for Kansas City. Here. They are in last place in the AFC West. Go figure that after five weeks they are one in four against the spread. I'm gonna take the Chiefs in a desperation situation. Look, Washington, I think could be a lot better than their two and three record if they had a different quarterback. Taylor Heineke is fine. He's a backup. He's doing what he can, but he is sort of the issue here. One of the most disappointing units, I would say in the NFL
has been Washington's defense. I expected a very big performance against the Saints. That it was a limited Saints team, Winston conservative game plan, coming off a loss to the Giants, I expected them to play well. I was disappointed. They're going to give up deep passes and bombs to the Saints. What's gonna happen with the Chiefs. They need to win in the worst way. I would like it if this number can get under that seven, stays under that seven,
because of course it's a great teaser play. You can argue teasing this with the Bucks. Both of those games down. But let's keep in mind here before we bury the Chiefs or think that maybe they're a notch below their slate of opponents that have started this year. They started with the Browns, who are legitimate contender, at home, and they won that game. They played at the Ravens, another
AFC contender, and lost by one. The Chargers, another really solid team and a contender for the Super Bowl, lost by six. Then they hung forty two on Philly, and then they lost to Buffalo, who may be the best team in the NFL right now. I think this is a King of the Little People situation with the Chiefs.
I think they go in here and cover it. I do not see how Washington can generate enough offense and look, if their defense was going to show up and change the script, they would have done it against a limited Saints team. I don't like this game at all. I think the Chiefs role let me.
Ask you something.
You've got a Chiefs offense that is almost certainly going to come out and just go ape right, like that's just they know they have to because their defense is terrible. But their defense is terrible. The total is an astronomical fifty five and a half. Is that a stay away for you? And do you expect it to probably hang around there for most of the week.
I think it'll hang around And I don't like going over high numbers. But Washington's defense twenty eighth and DVA overall ninth against the run, twenty ninth against the pass. So here we have a Washington defense that struggles against the pass against the desperate Patrick Mahomes led team, and the Chiefs defense, which is the worst for football outsiders
in DVA. I don't see the contrarian play here. I don't see how Washington's defense, who could not stop the Bills and could not stop the Saints, is now going to stop the Chiefs. So they're going to have to score Antonio Gibson's explosive, so is Terry McCain. So I lean to the over there. If I'm gonna have to make a pick.
So do I, which makes me feel disgusting because I don't ever like to go into these high numbers. But give me, I don't care what it is at this point because you're right, you got and you mentioned it.
Mike Washington's defense.
Probably like I mean, I know people talk about it generally speaking, and I deal with it from a fantasy perspective, but probably like the most disappointing I mean overall unit, just that there is, like this was supposed to be like a top unit right now, a unit that you faded generally speaking when you were betting against them and in fantasy, and it is neither. You pick on them right now. Skim's gonna be fun to watch. I think
they're gonna be a lot of fireworks. And I agree with you if I have to go to over fifty five and a half, I've never bet a spread over that high, Like I just I can't. Like it's very difficult for me, but I would if I were somebody other than me. Chargers are visiting the Ravens now who Chargers are getting three in this game in the totals fifty.
One and a half. Real interesting one here? What do you think? Like?
I think the Browns brought a different level of physicality and the overall rushing attack against the Chargers. I think Brandon Staley's going to adjust to that. I like the Chargers here going on the road. Ravens had a big comeback. They have a short week. This Charger team is very, very strong. I know the Ravens are gonna pound the ball, and if you look on the surface, you're gonna say, well, the Browns just ran all over the Chargers. What are
the Ravens gonna do? I think their secondary can limit Marquise Brown. I think that Staley will learn from the Browns game, which were they were lucky to escape, and I think they will come out here and continue. The Ravens defense does have trouble with big plays. This Chargers offense is at a different level. We saw what happened with Jonathan Taylor with pass catching running backs and now
here comes Austin Eckler. I like the Chargers, even though you would look on the surface and say the Browns just put all those numbers up. Ravens will do better not coming off a short week. I like the Chargers to went now right, and I would love the points there as well.
Yeah, I'll take them on the money line.
For sure, because I do think the Chargers are actually gonna win this game, and again, it has all the makings of a put aside the public sort of thing. I mean, the Ravens have to be completely after that win, like win great, like fantastic, but you've got to be absolutely drained after that win. And the raven like, their defense is nothing really that you need to be afraid of anymore. And even if it were, the Chargers are obviously a strong enough unit that they can attack anyone.
I worry a little bit about how vulnerable the Chargers are on the ground, But again, the Ravens are sort of more like they're putting their running backs on the block at this point, like in real life, they're just like, you know whatever, we're gonna have Lamar throw the ball or have Lamar run.
I agree with you.
Do you think, by the way that this ends at three? Like I honestly I expected it to be within a field goal. And maybe it's because the fact that Ravens won, you know, in such a dramatic fashion last night, But I expected this to be within a field goal. So do you think it's gonna move either way? Or do you think it basically sits here at three.
Yeah, I expect the money to come in on the Ravens because betters tend to have that recency bias, you know, you just it's vividness to you. You saw it last night Lamar Jackson and Scott Fishbell had like sixty four points. He broke the whole thing. So I expect that the Ravens will get money and the Ravens will get bets. And I wouldn't be surprised if we see Vegas. As we said, adjust that line and sort of make it lower. The Chargers are very live. They have no trouble going
on the road. Everyone talks about the home field advantage, which may be an oxymoron, but I like this team. They're very solid, they're very well coached, and they have no problem with big play. Who's hotter than Mike Williams right now as a wide wide receiver two in fantasy. And we're forgetting about Keenan Allen, who will dominate that intermediate short to intermediate area against this Ravens team. I expect both defenses to play well, go towards the under,
but I will grab the points with the Chargers. Like you said, money line is a great bet yep.
Packers are visiting the Bears. The Packers are laying four and a half total forty five.
What do you think?
Packers have won nine of the last ten against Chicago. Chicago is thirty first in pass offense DVOWA. They really struggle justin fields hyper extended. D may be a little banged up. I expect him to play here come the Bears without David Montgomery with a limited justin fields, the Packers defense should play very well. And what I think dan is without Vic Fangio. When they've played four games
here Packers and Bears. Without Fangio as a defensive coordinator, Green Bay is four and zero and the last three games besides the opener in twenty nineteen, they have won by an average of seventeen and a half points while averaging themselves thirty eight points. I don't think the Bears was a nice road win Khalil Mack revenge game against the Raiders that all the chaos going on. I don't think they changed the script here with justin fields. Great
staff from JJ Zacharison on FanDuel today. DeVante Adams has forty five targets in the last three weeks. The entire Bears team has fifty seven targets. Packers are four and one against the spread. I think they'll contain fields here. I also love the under. The Bears are four and one to the under. Yeah, Green Bay plays at a very slow pace. This reeks to me to be like sort of a Browns Bears game from a couple weeks ago. Packers cover under as well with the total.
I agree.
I bet both now and I probably will usually Mike, I do it during the podcast. That's when I said something that I like, I'm gonna wait out of just sheer respect for you.
I completely.
I mean the Bears, they you know what I think, justin fields. Unless I'm either make some numbers. It might be seventeen twenty seventeen or twenty seventeen twenty either way for pass attempts in his three starts right now, they have no interest in passing the ball. And he's banged up. As you mentioned, he is going to play. I agree with the hyper extension, but he's banged up. The receiver's doing nothing. You know, again, from a fantasy standpoint, everybody
get really excited about Darnell Mooney. I didn't get it because there's just I understand that when Fields does throw, he pushes the ball down the field, but he doesn't want to throw.
That's just what it is. That's not how they want to run their offense. They want to rely on their defense.
Which is good, not great though, because you can't exploit that secondary pretty easily that Monta Adams can exploit any secondary, but especially you know in the slot.
They can do some things there.
But the Packers as well, coming off you know, a tough game against the Bengals, they're not that explosive anymore offensively or anything like that. So I agree with you that I lean the under and I will take the points. I don't think you have to run to bed at four and a half, Like the move is not going to be someplace that I think is going to put you off it either way, right, it's not going to get to seven, it's not going to get to three. So I think you're fine to wait if you want.
But I'm in total agreement with you on the sides.
On both the Bears are going to have to force turnovers, and Rodgers is just the king. He milks that clock to the very end. You have Damian Williams and Khalil Herbert who are trying to do a decent job in the backfield. But it's not the same as having Montgomery Alan Robinson mi Ia right now. There's no chemistry with
him and fields. It just seems like they would have to force a lot of turnovers and I don't see that happening with an intra division game here where Rodgers are very used to the Chicago defense.
I think it's got to be something flugy realistically for the Bears to be able to win this game or really keep it that close.
So I'm in total agreeing with you.
And again, it's not a game in my opinion that you have to run out to do something now, because I don't expect.
It to move all that much. I think the numbers are.
Fine, but I'm definitely with you on both the side and the total. The Rams are visiting the Giants, the Rams are laying ten and a half and the totals forty seven and a half. Obviously, we have questions about here about the Giants as to who's going to start at quarterback, which receivers are going to be healthy. You've obviously already got Saquon Barkley out we know Kenny Galladay is out, So what do you do here with the line that's over ten points?
Ten and a half here at forty seven and a half.
Really tough one for me. Dan, It's to stay away. If I had to lean, I would lean towards taking the points at home. This Giant team plays hard. Daniel Jones can do some things as a mobile quarterback that can throw off the defense. The Rams are just playing at a different level though. Stafford and that offense are clicking. They struggled last week, but they found a way to get a win on the road Cooper Cup. There's a lot of receiving options, so I think the Rams win.
I have no interest in taking the Giants on a deep money line or something. It's just that number is right there. If that number was seven, I would like it eight even, but ten is an awful lot. Jones can do a backdoor cover lead them down there in garbage time. I don't want any part of that. Kadarius Tony looks fantastic, So it's a stay away from me. The line is a really good one set here by Vegas.
It's too many question marks for me there.
I completely agree with you, like there is just there's no path that I see, absent multiple major injuries for the Giants to be able to win this game. But it's ten and a half, Like I have no interest in taking the Giants like, there's just no chance. There are no circumstances under WHI I would feel comfortable regardless of the spread. But it's just too much for me to go. Really interesting game here, a game that everybody's
gonna be watching. The Cardinals are visiting the Browns. The Browns home favorites two and a half, the total fifty and a half. What do you think, Mike, I.
Love the Browns. I think the Browns have a style that's very unique in today's NFL. Everyone's doing the short, quick passing attack. They are gonna pound that ball, They're gonna go strong, and then Baker Mayfield's going to make enough place to win the game. The Arizona's defense is legit fourth overall in DVOA, but thirteenth in run defense. That's bad against the Browns, who when they come home, they are going to be an issue. They just pound
that ball down your throat. Second in volume to the Saints as well. Kyler Murray was much less effective last year when he got injured, and what was interesting is he had one rushing yard last week. The key to this game, I think is the health status of center Rodney Hudson, who came over from the Raiders. He's done a fantastic job for the Cardinals. When he came out of that game, Bosa came in hit Kyler Murray. You saw him on the on the bench moving his arm
trying to get it loose. That to me means they're going to have a conservative offensive game plan, which is what happened last year. If you look at his box scores once he had a little bit of an injury, his rushes went down nineteen yards, thirty one yards, fifty yards. When he's rushing a lot is when their offense is clicking.
Baker Mayfield rumors about his shoulder, I think that was Kevin Stefanski trying to do some some questionable things there to throw us off because he looked fine, especially on the Hail Mary. Bets are about fifty to fifty, but the heavy money is on the Browns. Sign of a sharp play. I really like the Browns here.
I was surprised, I guess a little bit. I mean, there's a three out there at Fandle by the way, which is fine. I mean that no, I get it, but that's I was surprised a little bit about it. I thought that it would be maybe you pick him, you know, because I think the I guess, you know, the.
Public is whatever.
I thought the public would be all over the Cardinals if I've no Cardinals Kyler Murray.
We love it, so exciting, so explosive getting points.
But I agree with you. The Browns are great. I mean they should have won that game against the Chargers. They are extraordinarily well coached. They are Their defense is very regardless of all the points they gave up last week, their defense is highly above average.
Mayfield, you're right again.
We talked to doctor David Chow, who's on our fantasy podcast every Friday, and he said, this is nothing like. The injury to Mayfield is nothing like. It's his left shoulder. It's a harness, totally fine, yet a bad day. It wasn't really the shoulder, and he looked fantastic here against it.
I am in agreeing with you.
I wish Baker and Odell Beckham Junior could get on the same page a little bit. But it's it's kind of irrelevant really really for their offense. They're playing extremely well, So go ahead.
Yeah, that's a concern, and I'm looking for negative regression here. I mean, the Cardinal should have lost to the Vikings, and then if Jimmy Garoppolo plays that game instead of Trey Lance against the Niners, they probably lose at home there. So there's two games at home. They probably had a path to having two losses. I think we have the regression here. The Browns are good folks. They are legitimate Super Bowl contender, and they have a style with Chubb and Hunt that no one else has.
Yeah.
No, they're a really, really good team and they're fun to watch. So I'm with you on that. The Cowboys now are visiting New England. They are laying four points.
And the total is fifty and a half.
What do you think give me the points? With Belichick, I said the same thing when they ended up playing Tampa Bay. The book said that was the game they needed the absolute most besides like a Super Bowl where all the money is being bet. Right now, the Patriots back against the wall, coming off a game that they almost lost to the Texans. Belichick scheme over the Cowboys. Cowboys have been fantastic and they probably should be undefeated
except for that opening game against Tampa Bay. But you're gonna give me points of Bill Belichick at home, I will grab them. I think the Pats can find a way here to maybe win the game. You know they're going to shut down the top option Amari Cooper was injured at the end of that game last week, so we don't know how that's going to go. You know their run defense will be solid. I like the underheat and I love the points of Belichick. It worked well
for me against Tampa Bay. I'm going back to it in Foxborough.
Yeah, I'm I don't know how I feel about the spread. I don't want the Cowboys, I can tell you that, but I love the under. I love the under at fifty and a half for sure. I would take it now because wherever it's going to go. But this strikes me as a game that's going to see way fewer points than anybody expects.
I think.
You know, the public loves the Cowboys, that love their offense, but you're right, they've got some issues right now. You know Belichick is going to have a scheme that's going to work and again the New England offense like it. They don't try to be explosive. They don't want to be explosive. They want to kind of control everything. Make it that way.
I love the under at fifty and a half. I was surprise that was that high.
Let's go to the Raiders. Some turmoil with the Raiders visiting the Broncos. The Broncos are laying three and a half.
The totals forty four.
What do you think if you look at this the Denver Denver Raider game had usually gone the last couple of years for the home team. The Raiders had a run there where they were upsetting teams on the road. Again, I'm going to trust the better coach. I'm going to trust the one that's prepared. Vic Fangio Courtland Sutton into that game last week against the Steelers. He was a little banged up. I wasn't sure. He looked fine. I think he gets this defense rolling. This is a Raiders
team that's in turmoil. If you want to say there's some benefit emotionally from firing Gruden, I don't think so. I think they were doing very well. The situation happened. He had to be let go. I understand that, but it's not the win one sort of for the new coach, which could happen in Jacksonville because that's drawn out. I just think the Broncos are better prepared. Teddy Bridgewater against the spread historically has been fantastic, especially at home. Denver
has the home field advantage. I'm rolling with the Broncos here against the Raider team that right now is in a little bit of chaos.
Yeah, I look for any reason, especially relatively early in the season. I know it's not real early, but to back the Broncos at home early in the season, four teams have fully gotten their conditioning all set and everything like that, I agree with you. I like the Broncos here in a game that they fought hard. I did think the Steelers were gonna win that game last week.
I did have them. But I think that this is a game again.
You're right that this is a bounce back sort of spot for them now after winning the three and then losing a couple, I think they bounced back here and again. The Raiders right now are just in such this array, and by the way, their offense does not look anything like it looked early on in the season.
I mean, Derek.
Carr has looked sort of skittish a little bit in the pocket and everything like that. So I agree with you here. I like the Broncos. Let's go to the Seahawks visiting the Steelers.
Probably not the.
Game that the NFL really envisioned it would be at this point when they made that Sunday Night Football. But the Steelers are laying four and a half and the total is forty two and a half.
I grabbed it right away when it was three, and now it's climbed. I'm all over Pittsburgh. I think they turned a corner. Look if this was Russell Wilson, this is a spot that the Seahawks could step up. I think they turned a corner. Juju is out, I understand that. I think it streamlines the receiving options. I think pat Freyermuth is gonna have a big game here, and Najay Harris has just been clicking. That was a good Denver run defense, yes, and he ended up scorching them last week.
I think at prime time at home, Geno Smith, I'm sorry, I just don't see Gino coming in. I don't think the Seahawks Dan can win. So if that's the case. Am I going to debate over four points or three points? I am not. I think the Steelers are starting to get it going. You know, their run defense is going to be solid, which means they'll probably have a conservative game plan with Gino here that's not going to work.
They could hit a couple deep shots, but Gino's also a radic got picked off to end the game at the end against the Rams. I can't take Gino on the road. Give me the Steelers who are trending in the right direction now primetime at home with a solid defense that should stifle the Seahawks rushing attack.
Yeah, this was This really was something where it did feel like I don't want to call it a get right game because the Steelers have plenty of issues, but the fact that Nagie Harris was able to succeed and looks so good running the ball against at Denver defens made me feel a little more just excited about him and the team generally, because the offensive line has had so many issues. You're right, you do is out for
the season pretty much. I don't think it matters. He wasn't doing much anyway as long as Chase Claypole and Deante Johnson are healthy, and again, Pat Fryer, I would love it because we'd love to see the breakout happen. And for the Seahawks, look kudos to Gino who stepped in and looked really good. Step again, but I think right now, you're going to give a team Steelers at home on a primetime game a week to prepare for
Gino Smith. They're not going to be able to run the ball they've got obviously the pass catchers and the Steelers are vulnerable through the year. But I think again, with Gino there, I agree with you. I will take it at four and a half right now. It's at five at my book. But again, I'm not going to qubble necessarily with that at that but kudos to you for grabbing it. At three Monday night football, last game
of the week, the Bills are visiting the Titans. The Bills are laying five and a half and the total is fifty four.
What do you think?
Yeah, I think there's a little bit of letdown here. I like Tennessee at home getting those points, so that five to five and a half number always sets bells off in my head because it's sort of a no man's land there. The Bills look great. They beat the Chiefs. They struggled last year they came into Tennessee. I think it was a Monday night or Sunday night game, or maybe it was postponed. There was a postponeing because of
a COVID issue, and they really struggled. I think the Titans defense has been rough this year, but I do think with Derrick Henry, they have the type of script that can frustrate the Bills. I think the Titans keep this game close. I think Mike Vrabel has Tennessee ready. Five is a lot of points. I expect the Bets to pour in on Buffalo here, but with aj Brown looking a little bit better, maybe Julio Jones is back.
Ryan Tannehill's a mobile quarterback and you have the big dog back there running the ball into that Bills line. They just need a couple turnovers. Five as a frisky number, I'm gonna take it with the underdog Titans.
Yet, despite the fact that the Titans obviously are coming off a nice win here, there is a lot of negativity around the team because they just don't look you know. It's basically a you've got Derek Henry and nothing else, and Ryan Tannehill hasn't really been gone because they haven't had the wide receivers and even when AJ Brown has been healthy, he hasn't quote unquote produced from you know, at least a fantasy standpoint or whatever.
But I agree with you.
I think this is a great spot for the Titans with the Bills coming off that you know, enormous win right now, and they're a great team. Okay, their defense is played better than I expected to see them necessarily, but there is no defense right now that can stop Derrick Henry and I think hopefully Julio Jones. Again, this is the third week I think for Julio Jones. He
wasn't placed on injured reserve. That means that they probably expected him to be able to return at this point, and if they have him, then it really is a difference maker.
But I agree with you. Again, it's a weird number.
And again, you know, I talk about this with Matt Parult a lot, like the favorites at five and a half always a little weird.
He always thinks that like the four and.
A half to five and a half is Vegas, basically being like, oh, we don't really know, let's just see it out, yes, right, but I like the Titans in this spot as well, and again I do generally favor the Titans overall.
All right, this was great.
I appreciate you rolling with the punches, man, I know I'd originally wanted to do this on Monday. I appreciate you being able to squeeze us in here and to remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
You can follow me on Twitter at Randel Ran. I have a work up for the Action Network working on college basketball previews. Also last word on NFL. I do some work for betting pros. Just all over the place, just working away here, loving the NFL. It's a great time of year, Dan. I appreciate you, myke.
Youar superstar. I'm really glad we were finally able to talk. I look forward to doing it again soon. In the meantime, everybody enjoyed the rest of your week. Joe will be back with the College Football Podcast with Bagman. I'll be back on Thursday with our best bets. I will talk to you then,