Early Look at Week 5 NFL Lines (Ep. 111) - podcast episode cover

Early Look at Week 5 NFL Lines (Ep. 111)

Oct 05, 202156 min
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Episode description

Dan Harris is joined by Joe Pisapia to take an early look at the Week 5 NFL lines.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. It is time for an early look at the week five NFL lines, and to do that is our very own Joe Pizzapia. Find him on Twitter at Joe Pizzapia twenty No. Seventeen. Oh god, I thought you were so much older than you are.

Speaker 2

Regard that is not the right foot to start.

Speaker 1

We're recording this very early in the morning, Joe. I'm usually just waking up at this time. Okay, I know you wake up at like four am and you get ready for your day. Anyway, Joe, as you guys know, as a host of our college football Betting Bros. Podcast. He also have the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. He is the man. Joe, thanks for popping on the podcast this morning. I know we've just talked for about a half hour before we started recording, but publicly, how are you doing.

Speaker 2

I'm doing all right, my friend, I'm doing all right. I'm excited. I haven't been on this show. I was thinking to myself, what show do we produce here at Betting pros and Fantasy pros overall that I haven't done yet. I haven't done this one, so I'm trying to literally click them all off, check them all off the boxes, every get my Bingo card completely full so that I can go in and cash in at the end of the year. So this is another a show that I

can check off now. And what's what's next. We have a we have a curling show, maybe maybe bob sledding coming up here. Winter Olympics right around the corner.

Speaker 1

So like that a lot of We've got a lot of Winter Olympics. But if your early performance is any indication, this will be your last time here on this show, all right, So you know what this is. We're going to take an early look at the week five lines. We're going to see if there's any value, see if there are any bets that we like. Before we get into that, some housekeeping first, our offer from bet MGM.

New customers bet five dollars to win one hundred dollars if either team scores a touchdown again five dollars one hundred dollars in free bets. If either team scores a touchdo regardless of who you bet on, when you use the code Juice one hundred. I mentioned this all the time. Juice is our daily juice podcast hosted by Matt Pearl, So that's the code Juice one hundred New customers bet MGM. Second, we have a winner for the two A Tongue of

Iloa giveaway. It is Isaiah from Memphis, Tennessee. Congratulations. If you entered our contest and you did not win, relax, You're automatically entered into this month's giveaway. And that is a signed Saquon Barkley Jersey. You guys know how to do an entry at this point. All you gotta do is leave a review for the show on Apple podcast or cast box and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash review. That is it, and if you want three times the entry, just subscribe here to our YouTube

channel YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. We do a lot of good stuff. I do a props video every week. We do a Sunday morning live stream eleven am to twelve pm Eastern Time with me and Matt Pearl, or we go through each of the game's Matt videos, all his Daily Juice podcasts. There's a lot of good stuff there. Again, three times the entries. If you go to YouTube dot com slash betting pros Joey p Are you ready to take a look at the week five lines?

Speaker 2

I was born, ready, Harris, let's go.

Speaker 1

This is my nightmare. Okay, let's start here with the Thursday night game A little bit better than the Jaguars and the Bengals. Here, we've got the Rams and the Seahawks in Seattle. The Seahawks are getting two on our betting Pros consensus lines, and the total is fifty four and a half. These totals, man, this year, it's like, I like, how like fifty four fifty five are just like whatever? Now, I will say, Joe just before we

get into it, it's two. I don't really think it matters that much right now with the Rams lying two, But obviously those are the consensus lines. It's as high as two and a half here over at Fox Bett it's as low as one on my homebook DraftKings. So generally speaking, Rams laying two in Seattle with the total fifty four and a half.

Speaker 2

Reaction, well, first of all, they have to talk about where the Rams are and coming off that loss this week, it's not surprising that they lost to the Cardinals. It's more surprising than they lost at home, I think if that makes any sense to you, and I think that, yeah, that means the inevitable letdown of after you face Tom Brady in a big game like that and you win that game, it's very emotional lot going through, and then

you know, you have the Cardinals coming in. Theoretically you think, okay, we're gonna beat them. It's gonna be you know, it's gonna be fine. We're you know, just gonna roll over them. And then they beat you. It's a little bit of a wake up call. And I think it's in a way it's a good loss for that team, if that makes sense. It's a good loss. The Rams, I think,

are the most complete team in the NFL. That being said, this is another Indivision matchup here where they've got, you know, they take on Tom Brady one week, right and probably the rain defending champs and probably the favorites to repeat. Then you've got successive weeks two Indivision opponents here and now you've got to go on the road to Seattle. See how it's not nearly as tough as a place.

The one thing that I do like, here is the total and it's the over on the total of fifty four and a half, which I know it's a high number, but we're seeing an explosion of offense in the league this year. We're on pace to shatter all the records already, and it's just it's a combination of just the rules, it's a combination of the speed of the players. Also just the openness of the game and where we're at right now, and the quarterback play is exceptional for the

most part. There's been some really great quarterback play this year in the league. For me, I would stay away from the line here, I would go to the over under and I would hammer the over there because in a short week two it's really tough for defenses typically to prepare very well, even though they know these teams

and all that the Rams have. Here is also a unique position where they have multiple guys to throw the ball to, so it's not just a one dimensional team where you could say, oh, you know, it's very easy, we could just target one of these guys shut them down. Now,

it's gonna be a little harder than that. So I think that wide openness of the Rams passing game and on top of that which you have with the Seattle Seahawks, which is, you know, a good team and Russell Wilson kind of carrying them a little bit right now at home. This is a big matchup the overs where I go right now in terms of who's gonna win, this is kind of a toss up for me. If anything, I might take the money line, which is plus one eighteen

right now on the Seahawks to win straight up. I think that's a little bit better in terms of your returnal investment.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think it's probably. I mean, I might have a little action on this game because it's Thursday night football, and you probably should just one way or another, right but I'll probably like you certainly on the side stay away from it. I don't have a good sense of it. Also, I don't think matters if you bet it now or later,

Like it's not going to climb to three. There's not gonna This is a very evenly matched game in Seattle again on the short week, which again it's very difficult for the Rams, who were just basically getting their butts kicked with their defense on the field a ton against Arizona. I think they're probably a little tired. It's tougher for defenses to bounce back on the short week here, so it's probably something where i'd stay away. I guess i'd lean over, But man, I am tired. I am tired

of these totals. Like at the fifty five and again we saw Joe right, we had primetime overs. We're just non stop hitting, And then this week it was all of the primetime games came under their totals. So I wonder whether or not the books are just basically still they're juicing them up so high right now.

Speaker 2

Well, you know, in one of those, you know, the torrential downpour of rain and suble and really changed the dynamic of that total. You know, it's all that whether they should have hammered the under there just as tougher.

Speaker 1

I agree, But I also think really it might have been more of Gronkowski out because I think like that changed the dynamic of their blocking just generally. I mean, Brady was getting a little bit of rasped.

Speaker 2

It's fair Fronk being out to a certain extent. That also, it's all the game plan that Belichick wanted to play, which is slug it out, bring him down to your level, kind of stuff, and that's what he does with all the great quarterbacks, you know, in those kind of games where every play is a high powered offense. You know, if you go back to the AFC Championship game a couple of years ago, right with Mahomes, where they shut him out, they brought it down to a grinding kind

of game. Now they only got away with it for half a football. They got away with it for an entire game this past week with Brady in the Bucks. So that's a gain again, That's that's the game plan. That's what he wants to do. He wants you to get you in the mud. He wants you to keep changing looks every two seconds and having to adapt to what he's doing and staying ahead of you, Whereas Nope, most coaches don't make adjustments as quickly as Belichick does,

and as well in the second half too. So no matter what they were doing the first half, you know they were going to have more things to throw him in the second half. So the under in that game does not surprise me whatsoever.

Speaker 1

All Right, Jets are technically visiting the Falcons, but they're in London in this one early in the morning on Sunday the Falcons. The consensus sign is laying three and a half. The total is forty six. What do you think, Joey.

Speaker 2

I think I want to apologize to Great Britain for sending them this game. This is football. Here you go, everybody, here you go. Here's the best we can offer you.

Speaker 1

I mean, come on, man over there.

Speaker 2

Oh hey, we had Murph on the show a couple of weeks back, right, I mean it is huge there.

Speaker 1

That's a Jets Dolphins game several years ago, and that place goes insane any football, regardless of the level of play. So don't apologize. Let them enjoy it and let them watch the Jets cover the three and a half spread.

Speaker 2

Right, God, I hate this game. It's gross.

Speaker 1

Run man.

Speaker 2

I don't like when I don't have a beat on either of these teams, and neither of them are good football teams. I don't care if the Jets game away with a victory. It's also the travel. You don't know how teams are going to react to need this game. Most London games are a bad investment. This one in particular is awful because you have two bad teams and you don't know how bad. It's going to be if any maybe you can look towards the under if you thought the defenses were any good. But I don't think

the defenses are any good. So this is a complete stay away from y'all. Have nothing to do with this game for a myriad of reasons.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I'm not going near the total because I think it's very difficult, like you said, with the huge travel like this, to understand how teams are going to react. But I am telling you right now that I do not think that the Falcons should be more than a field goal favorite over anyone at this point in the season. And again, you saw the Jets. Okay, and you know I'm not a homer like obviously and stuff like that, but we saw the Jets. Pat and I talked about

it last week. By the way, we liked the Jets certainly getting this seven, and we kind of like them on the money line because we thought this was a possibility when you play a less than above average defense, as the Jets have played every single week. Their offensive line is terrible, their defense has no personnel, but the scheme works. Okay, they're getting healthier there, it's possible elize more plays. I'll take the Jets here man, and I

don't think you need to run. I don't think it's going to get to a field goal or anything like that. I mean DraftKings that four and a half actually, But I think you can bet it now. You can wait if you want, But I will take the Jets if you're giving me the hook, just because, honestly, I don't think the valten should be more than a three point favorite over anyone right now.

Speaker 2

I like having crowder back in that offense. I think that's a really good safety net for a young quarterback. That was the only guy that Sam Darnold could throw the ball to for the first year or so of his Jets career. So I think that's a good thing there, and a confidence builder for a win. Not only the Jets winning a football game would want to throw gatorade on their coach. Only the Jets would want to do that. But your nuts if you make an investment in this game,

I'm sorry. There's so many this is four outcomes written all over it.

Speaker 1

I'm taking the I'm taking the hush Man. Call me crazy, I'm fine to do it. Let's go with the crazy visiting crazy. That's fine. I've been called worse Saints visiting Washington. The Saints are laying one and a half points here. The total is forty four and a half.

Speaker 2

What do you think, Joe, This is a fascinating one. This almost feels like too easy to me. You know, the Washington football team, for all their struggles on defense this year, offensively have okay. And they get Kurtis Samuel back in Taylor Heineke. You know, in terms of fantasy points, he's put up you know, QB one three weeks in a row here. So I mean, nobody seems to care or notice that except me, and I keep bringing this up. And that's why he was our lock of the Week

play on the DFS show along with McLaurin. That was the pairing and if you played that, you did pretty well. But the point here is, I think with the Saints inefficiencies on offense, with them traveling here on the road, coming off a bad loss at home, you know, going into overtime in that game, I like Washington here on this side. I think I would definitely take the Washington side. This should be a relatively close game theoretically, but the whole going back and forth a quarterback thing to me,

that always just takes offenses out of a rhythm. I'm sorry, it's just it's very difficult to operate that way. I would stay away from the total. I would just go right to the Washington side with the one and a half, which is what I'm seeing over from FanDuel. I would even take them outright as plus one twelve. I actually think that's a pretty good number you're getting on them as well. I think Washington a little bit of confidence builder for them last week that was a big road

win despite the fact the Falcons aren't any good. You still road winds are tough, and I think you get back home a little bit. You build some momentum off of that off of New Orleans Saints team that to me has all kinds of issues, and Callaway is probably gonna be out for this game too, possibly, So I think you're in a spot here where New Orleans offensively is just kind of banged up, beaten up, not very good.

The defense is good, but not great. I don't know, man, I think this is a dangerous game here for the Saints. I take the Washington sign.

Speaker 1

I'm staying away from it. I think your points are valid. This just strikes me as sort of the classic right, I feel like, I mean, it's simplistic to sort of describe it this way, but there's like a very clear sort of bilo sell high. Washington comes off that big win, Saints come off a really bad loss, Like you could see the Saints coming out here and just winning this game. And again that if you bet it now, if you bet it later, if you like a side, don't, you

don't have to rush. It's minus one and a half. As Joe mentioned at Fandal, that's our consentsus sign is pretty much unanimously the Saints laying one and a half. I don't. I don't a good feel for it. I'm not going near the total with you. I agree completely, but it's something where I'm staying away. I feel a little less confident.

Speaker 2

I think the wrong team is favored in this game. Straight up. Whenever you think that, that's where you go bet, like if you look at like what I like to do with this is an exercise I learned from my good friend Betty your Chardi over the years. You do the lines yourself before you go look at the line correct And I would have had Washington favored by three in this game. And so okay lost one and a half.

Speaker 1

Right now, all right, So I would have had Washington basically favored by a point, like so to me, when you you know, that's not a big deal, Like one and a half one way, one the other way, not a big deal. So if you had it at three, then you're definitely taking Washington this game. Yeah. For me, I don't know. I find them a little more evenly mashed, not like they do. Get Curtis Samuel back, but they're going to be down Logan Thomas and you know, I it's just something where I don't I don't have a

beat on the Saints team yet, Joe. That's really the issue for me. Like they're not impressive offensively, they are generally speaking pretty impressive deep when they're healthy and everything like that. It's just I don't know. To stay away from me, but this one is interesting to me, Joe. The Packers are visiting the Bengals. The Packers are laying three and a half points. The total is forty nine and a half. What do you think.

Speaker 2

Here, Well, I think if you don't get T Higgins back on this game, this is going to be a tough one here, Joe, Mixon's banged up.

Speaker 1

He is expected to play though the early word early word right, early word early words.

Speaker 2

He expected to play, and I would expect he is going to play and does play. But at the same time, if you don't have Higgins on that field too, then that means Alexander is going to be on Chase, and we all know how that goes. If he takes out Chase, then all of a sudden, you're gonna have to find other pieces. And if mix is not one hundred percent, I don't know what this other pieces are. I don't think Tyler Boyd is enough year, even at home, to

beat the Packers. So Packers by three and a half to me, actually, I would take the three and a half on the Packers side of this one. I actually think they win this one by a touchdown, and I think they win it pretty handily. And I want to give the Bengals some respect too, because defensively, they played much better in the second half. Last year. They were a dormat. Everybody made fun of them in the first

half and then they kind of flip the switch. They don't have a ton of talent necessarily, yeah, but they play hard and they play smart. And it kind of dates back also to that game they had last year against Pittsburgh, if your call that. I remember that primetime game where they embarrassed the Steelers right and ever since then in the offseason they made some moves as well. We actually highlighted them on the IDP Show earlier this week. Bob Mey and I we talked at length about the

Bengals defense. They are better, which means that I still feel like the under is a little bit more possible for this game. I would lean towards the under because I don't think the Packers are gonna explode necessarily offensively, but I do think they're gonna control this game from start to finish, and I do think they're gonna win it comfortably. So for me, I think it's the three and a half side on the Packers. But I would shy the under here just to Tad, just because I

don't think Cincinnati can keep pace. And I also don't think the way the Cincinnati Bengals defenses played that they're gonna let it get completely out of control.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I don't have a great sense of it either. Really with this game, I lean towards the Packers, even with the it's weird. I mean, the Bengals are off kind of the Mini by it's possible mixing plays. He's going to be day to day until the end, and then he's gonna be out for six weeks like we were last year. But regardless that, no, that certainly hurts him. But I expect Higgins to play. I don't know if j R. Alexander is gonna be able to play in this one because he's got the ac joint, you know,

injury thing. So maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. There's some unknowns here, and especially again given the fact that they're off the Mini by I lean Packers, I think you're probably going to see this basically stay where it is. I don't think it gets to three, although admittedly I do see a three out there at Fox Bet. But I think for the most part, books are three and a half. I think that's the right line. I think it's going to stay there. Did you say you lean

the under Joe? If you went one way or the other, I do.

Speaker 2

This feels like a twenty four to thirteen kind of game to me.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and the Packers offense is not like it. You know, DeVonta Adams is incredible. Aaron Jones is amazing, Aaron Rodgers amazing. But it's not It doesn't have that explosive feel right now. And again you mentioned the Bengals defense. It's playing much better than I expected.

Speaker 2

They're making plays there. Yeah, coached, well, they're in a good spot here. Yeah, Bells played very well. A couple of the other guys on defense have really kind of stepped up a little bit. Again, they don't have you know, they don't have the Miles Garrett, they don't have the Aaron Donald, they don't have that kind of push you

get up front. Necessarily. What they've done is they've remade the secondary a little bit and they've booked up in the linebacker corps and they're playing They're playing efficient defense, and they're not letting teams kind of explode on them anymore the way that they did in the first half last year, which is good progress. But at the same points, I thought Burrow played very well. But you're talking about taking that game and that performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

You can't translate that to a Packers team that's just infinitely more talented.

Speaker 1

Yeah, this one's fascinating, Joe. This game because we have a lot of question marks. I've also made a lot of money here taking the unders on the Broncos game. I'm late. This is the Broncos are visiting Pittsburgh. The Steelers are laying one and a half, and they are saying, go ahead and take the over. We don't care. It's forty forty even for the total. What do you think again, Aldon,

let's talk about the uncertainty. Obviously, Teddy Bridgewater is in the concussion protocol as we speak, he is uncertain for this game. There is a large difference for me whether or not it's Teddy Bridgewater versus Drew Locke. But what do you think right now where we are.

Speaker 2

I don't think that matters all that much. I could not believe that they lost two straight games at home. The Pittsburgh stear is going to lose three straight games in Pittsburgh. Man, that's tough. I mean, I don't know. New England just did it. They all three straight home games.

Speaker 1

And man, if you don't have the personnel, you don't have the personnel.

Speaker 2

I know. But also typically you know certain buildings, certain environments are tougher to play than others. We know that it's just historically true. But the Steelers have all kinds of issues right now, the Denver Broncos, I know, with the uncertainty quarterback. Once again, this is a very tricky game. This feels like a trap game to me that typically I would stay away from. But the total of the forty, I mean, it's just kind of begging for the over.

Forty and a half is just I mean, in this day and age of the NFL, if you can't get to forty and a half or two the two of you, and look, this could very well be you know what right on that seventeen thirteen kind of line.

Speaker 1

Right, Yeah, they have been throughout the whole right, that's where they've been living right now. Their defense is very very good. Their offense is unexplosive, and the Steelers have no offense to speak of. I mean, whether or not Chase Claypole pops up here, it doesn't matter. Their offensive line is absolutely abysmal. Their defense is solid, not that they've got wopped back. I mean, I'm not betting the under, Joe, because it's forty, Like that is just a number that really it's not a.

Speaker 2

Good You have to lean towards the over. But I will say this Dan. The minus one and a half here on the Pittsburgh side. I think you also have to keep in mind that even though Pittsburgh has struggled, they did beat Buffalo, and even though Denver has a three to one record, they beat up on bad teams. So the minute they got a taste of a good team here in their own building, no less, Baltimore straight

up embarrassed them in that game. Right, So I think this is that perfect thing where people might think Denver is a little bit better than they are. I would lean towards the minus one and a half here on the Pittsburgh side of this game. It's minus one twenty two here on the money line for Pittsburgh tells you that there's some confidence there that the Steels are gonna win this football game. This is a game where people get caught up on record instead of the strength of opponent.

And I think the Steelers have, you know, played some good teams. I think Las Vegas is a good team. You know, they they battle. They're not the as wishy washy I think as they were in the past, despite the fact that they're coming off a Monday night loss. I think when you look back now and get a little bit more perspective on these first four weeks. Pittsburgh's had the tougher schedule and they have the worst record. But I'm not gonna get hung up on Denver's good

record either. I don't think Denver is as good of a football team as their record says they are, So I would take the Pittsburgh out of this game at minus one and a half.

Speaker 1

So for me, I don't care the fact that the Broncos are three and one or that the Steelers are one in three. I mean, I agree that the Broncos have benefited from the lack of quality opponents that they have played in the first three weeks, but I do think that their defense is legitimate. I do think, to be you know, quite honest, I really think that the loss of kJ Hamler is a huge loss for the Broncos just because again already down Jerry Judy. It doesn't

the field's not open now at this point, right. I mean, Handler wasn't that involved, but he at least stretched the field, made the you know, safeties, and the quarterbacks have to think about that open up intermediate routes here for Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, that's gone. The Steelers are, as you mentioned, desperate. But I have no faith in the Steelers right now, Joe. I mean you watch that offense.

That offensive line is terrible. I actually I don't often, as I've said, I don't often feel bad for football players. I feel bad for Ben because Ben is honestly like, oh God, I'm gonna die. I've got to just find a way to survive long enough to dump it off four yards down the field. So I'm concerned about their offense. With that said, Joe, I number one, especially with the uncertainty around Locke versus Bridgewater, which I do think is

a big deal. By the way, I have zero faith and Drew Locke being able to win a game going into Pittsburgh. I have more faith in Teddy Covers, you know, being able to do it. But for me, I'm very uncertain here right now. And I do think that the Steelers find a way to win this game and don't end their season, which they probably will if they lose this game at one and four, Like it's very difficult

to come back from that. So I am with you actually with the uncertainty even if Bridgewater plays, I do think this is a game that the Broncos traveling after a home game are not going to be able to pull out against the Steelers. So I think again, their defense.

Speaker 2

Is just going to bring it wins on defense.

Speaker 1

I think you're correct.

Speaker 2

I think that's correct, you know what, being back and playing and one of those losses was not in that game either. Yea, No, that's that's another huge loss. I mean, he really changes completely how you have to approach the Pittsburgh Steelers on the defensive side of the football.

Speaker 1

And I do think that the game, this is a game you gotta bet now, I think because I don't think right because.

Speaker 2

If it's if half, at least by the time it might.

Speaker 1

Get it might get to three, honestly, because I think that once that happens, Drew to me, Lock the downgrade from Bridgewater to Locke is enormous. So to me, I I'm betting it now because I want to lie in because I do think that the Steelers get out of here. Let's go to the Dolphins visiting the Bucks Florida game. Here. The Bucks right now are laying ten and a half. The total is forty eight. What do you think.

Speaker 2

You know? It should be an absolute cake walk. I mean, it just an absolutely shit. I see on Fandle it's forty seven and a half. You said it's forty eight in another spot there.

Speaker 1

Correct, it's forty eight, is our consensus lines. It's basically bouncing back and forth between forty eight.

Speaker 2

Yeah, you know, like Tampa should absolutely smash the Dolphins. I mean they really should. Theoretically, I wonder what the it's only going to react two ways right after a very emotional week leading up for Brady. There's a lot of stuff going on there, right yeah, and it's finally all over. So either they bounce back and everything is just great. No, I oh, finally that's over. We're done with that. We can move on. We got the big win in New England and then we're back to being

you know, the Bruse Area's fun loving Buccaneers. Or it took so much out of them that there's a little bit of hangover in the beginning of this game, and if there is, that's where some of these large numbers kind of come went to play the Dolphins right now. Last week had all kinds of problems. Are not gonna have Wolf Fullers. That's one less weapon to have. They could not run the football at all last week, that is going to be exasperated the worst way this week.

So that is not a good situation. I think right now, you know, the over under is not something I would play around with because I think there's variables in that depending on how much the Miami offense does or does not show up. So I don't want to put anything into Miami because whenever you talk about totals, you have to talk about both teams in your head for the most part, and I'm concerned of Miami doing their part

to hit this number. Therefore, I think the safest thing here to look at, even though it's ten and a half, I just think the Bucks are going to be up by a lot in this game. I could worry about garbage time a little bit, but again, we don't have that field stretcher guy like Will Fuller. Makes a little bit harder to kind of catch up, and you can't run the football, you become one dimensional. The one thing that gives me, Paul is Dan is they've had all

those injuries in the secondary right for the Bucks. So Ken, DeVante Parker, Ken Waddle, can they enough to kind of keep pace at the end a little bit or throw on some garbage time and all of a sudden, maybe cut you know, a fourteen point lead to ten. Yeah, maybe they can. It's possible. But at the same time, I don't know, man, I think it's the Bucks in the ten and a half, even though it's a big number.

But I would stay away from the overunder because the overunder, to me, there's that variable where this is the Dolphins could get shut out again. It's not out of the rum of possibility.

Speaker 1

It's not a The best part is that teams don't even try to run right now in the box right like other than Sony Michelle with the Rams, where that was a game where they were just like, we can just run it because we're gonna win this game where he hit twenty carries, teams just basically go into it. You saw the Patriots, They're like, oh, we're we're not gonna try to run, like we know we can't run.

We're just gonna pass and that's fine. And look, you saw the Patriots have some success even with the driving rain in that game. Mac Jones played very well even without really having the field stretcher that going you know that taking shots. It was a lot of short passes, but it worked out for them. But I do think that, yeah, Miami even if they abandoned the run without will Fuller without that, and Fuller hasn't been you know, it's barely been playing this year.

Speaker 2

No, But it's just a theory Dan like have that guy you can get behind a secondary and they don't. Right. I don't think if DeVante Parker is really that guy at the stage's but Parker. It's just a matter of looking at Miami Dolphins realistically here and as good as they were last year, I feel like there's part of us that are still kind of carrying that torch a little bit. But if you really hyper focus on what they've done so far this year, it's not been good.

It's really been negative for the most part, outside of like glimpses here and there. And you can blame it on too it being hurt. That's that's fair, that's fine if you want it. But it wasn't all roses when Toua was healthy, either, right. I think I think right now people are still kind of thinking of the Dolphins and how you know, they competed and they just missed the playoffs and what they were last year, whereas this year, I think they've actually taken a step back, believe it

or not. Even the personnel has been better.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and again they're I don't really bottomize this. I'm staying away from this game because I do think that the potential for a back door cover is right there. And again I do think that in addition to the weather and in addition to the Patriots, I do think the loss of Gronk Cowskin, I'm not expecting him to

play in this game. Base and everything we've heard is the fact that he is such a good blocker that the fact that he's not there, I think really opens up sort of pressure to get I'm Brady, which I think could.

Speaker 2

Have understand that. I can understand that. I will say this though, having those three wide receivers, the Dolphins don't have the juice to stop all of those guys, and

even in that rain. Yet you know, in that game on Sunday night at AB come down with that incredible throw in the end zone, Like we're probably looking at different, like that's the thing in a perfect scenario right where schemes aren't as good, but the talent on the field is those plays get made by Antonio Brown by Mike Evans, and I think those guys are gonna eat and it's gonna be a lot too much for the Dolphins.

Speaker 1

That is fair. I certainly expect them to win, but I'm I'm gonna stay away from the potential for a backdoor.

Speaker 2

Covert using Leonard Fournette. I think in that game, I think you're gonn see a little bit more of that going forward. I think I think the Bucks are starting to figure out what I think the Chiefs are figuring out too, which is we got to have some kind of balance here. We have to change. We can't just be, you know, throwing the ball sixty times a game. We can't do that anymore.

Speaker 1

Yeah, how about the Titans are now visiting the Jaguars. The Titans are laying for. The total is forty eight and a half. Can the Titans lose to the two worst teams in football and back to back weeks?

Speaker 2

No, because the only team that's, you know, really even more just a hot mess right now than the Titans might be the Jaguars and probably the Houston Texans, right so, oh, the Texans. You know, I would have said the same thing with the Jets. But you know, I think everybody kind of forgets that when you take away not one, but two big targets like that in one game, it is really tough to go on the road and win.

I think some of this side stuff this week with Erbin Meyer is going to be a huge distraction to a team that is not a veteran team that is not going to be able to put it aside. This is a bad situation here for the Jaguars. I don't. That being said, this is not a game I feel comfortable investing in it all, not in the over, not the under, and not in the number. I just don't.

Because the health of the Tennessee Titans, their lack of defense, coming off a terrible loss last week, there just seemed to be a team I think that from a confidence standpoint, is reeling a little bit. They had expectations, they added Julio Jones, this is going to be a team that was really going to start to click up into that elite notch right back to back years in the playoffs. This is our year where all our chips in and it's got on the opposite direction, partially because of play

but partially because of the injuries. That being said, I still think they win this football game. So does Vegas too, because there minus two hundred on the money line. But at the same time, man, I don't know how you feel comfortable with a four or any number here, Like it's just it's just not a comfortable situation here with the Titans right now, especially on the road. If this was in Tennessee, I feel more comfortable, But not on the road. I struggle here back to back road games with them.

Speaker 1

If both Julio Jones and A. J. Brown were playing, would you take the four?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 1

Absolutely, one of Julio Jones and AJ Brown were playing, probably yeah. And I expect, like you, neither one of them is going to play in this.

Speaker 2

Because I feel like they can get away with it, and they you know, last week they had to get away with it. This week. Yeah, you're sort of rolling the dice and gambling what you can. But I think that they will take that gamble.

Speaker 1

I mean, I lean, I lean Tennessee.

Speaker 2

That tells you everything you need to know. It does your your sighing and harrumphing tells you why this game is a bad investment.

Speaker 1

So no, you're right, You're right. I can't take the Jaguars just because I can never take the Jaguars because, again, regardless of how I might handicap it or how I might look at it, Urban Meyer is like breaks all models that you could do, because he's such a distraction. He's in over his head so much that I just

think you can never back them. At the same time, look, we probably watched that game a little closer than most people just because it was the Jets and the Titans just they've got Derrick Henry and they really have nothing else to rely on when those two receivers are out, assuming they're out again. If I had to pick a side, I guess I would go with the Titans, but I

don't want to, so I am staying away. You're right also with the Total, because again, you know, I imagine that the Titans will try to, you know, run Derek Henry as much as possible, and that usually.

Speaker 2

Again, but look, Trevor Lawrence can make plays, and that's better thing you can't. You know, Trevor Lawrence is going to get better as the season goes on. His ability to make plays. Should were you I think about this total?

Speaker 1

Yeah, how about the Eagles are visiting the Panthers. The Panthers are laying four total forty four and a half.

Speaker 2

Ah the Eagles, Oh, who are the Eagles? This is a This is a tricky one here. I will say this. We talked at length this week about, you know, the test of the Panthers defense coming up against a really good Cowboys team this week offensively, and you know, and we got checked a little bit here. That being said, Panthers, I think get back to business at home. I like the Panthers in this game. I like them on the three and a half. I just don't like the Eagles

game plans. I just don't like the Eagles. The Eagles deficits didn't just vanish with Carson Wentz. They still have offensive line problems. You knew that was going to be going in. They still finding their identity on offense. It's nice to see like a Kenneth Gainwell starting to get some more play in this offense like he did in Week one. I think they're a better team when they do that, when they get Kenneth Gainwell involved. The problem is sometimes they way too long. Their inability run the

football is a problem. I think Arnold's just playing really good football right now, So I would just go right with the three and a half here, keep it simple. With the Panthers, I do think they win this game. I think defensively, they bounce back after a rough week last week. Jalen Hurts not nearly the same kind of competition as Dak Prescott in terms of playing quarterbacks. So I'll go with the Panthers in this one at home with a three and a half.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think I might have a blind spot Joe with the Eagles. I really do. And maybe it stems from the fact that we obviously do fantasy and I had projections for what I saw for the Eagles offense, and then that Week one game, it's sort of all came to fruition against an admittedly very weak Atlanta team,

and I feel like I still cling to that. Again, I one of my picks for one of my best bets was a couple of weeks ago was the Eagles on Monday Night Football going to the Cowboys, and I thought they played better, you know, even though they obviously had some unexpected offensive line issues coming to the week. I actually I lean a little bit towards the Eagles

in this game. It's not a game that I want to bet necessarily, just because again, I think without Christian McCaffrey, I think that offense and I expect them to be out in this game as well. Again nothing confirmed yet, but I expect them to be out. I think that offense really misses him, even though they were able to, you know, sort of hang with Dallas. I mean it took a while, but I think their defense again without

j C. Horn, I think that really affects them. To me, actually, Joe, I do kind of lean me over in this game here because I do think that at the very least, you saw an admittedly weak defense here against Kansas City. But I think even if the Panthers sort of are able to put up points, which I think you have to expect at this point because the offense is working right now, at the very least, if they get blown out the Eagles, they're going to be able to put up points sort of at the end of the game.

You saw it against the Cowboys, just because you know, Jalen Hurts can run around like a chicken with his head cut off at this point, and they can again, they can they can move the ball when they absolutely need to. So at forty four and a half, that strikes me as something where you know, I could see this being a you know.

Speaker 2

Yeah, even that number pretty easily.

Speaker 1

So to me, I go over here. I'd like to take that. The spread is something where I lean the Eagles, but it's also something where I probably stay away from. The Patriots are visiting the Texans. The total is well for we'll get this out a second. The Patriots are laying nine points and the total is thirty nine right here or thirty nine and a half. Actually, what do you think, Joe.

Speaker 2

I think the Patriots win this football game? Vegas does to the confident the Patriots win this football for how they win this football game, I don't. I'm hoping that, you know, and I think it should. I think there should be a lot of confidence for HEC Jones in that loss. We talk about sometimes taking losses as actual moments were a loss in a certain way with a certain performance kind of tells you a lot about the player, and I think we learned a lot about mac Jones

in terms of where he's at in his development. I think they should be more aggressive down the field. And what's ironic to me, the same thing that plagues the mac Jones and the Patriots offense is the same thing that plagues Tom Brady in that offense before he left, the lack of playmakers, the lack of that alpha wide receiver kind of guy that you can rely on in those big spots. Not having that guy that the other defense has to account for is what makes the Patriots

offense so middling at times. Now that being said, the Patriots defense is playing very well right now, So I think Houston's infer this is gonna be a rough stretch here. Houston had to play Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Now that you have to play the Patriots, I mean, Patriots win this football game. I am not comfortable with the nine and I mean thirty nine and a half sounds like a joke where he got it just go over, you would think so. But I gotta tell you this

feels like a huge trap. This whole game for me, is a giant stay away unless you're gonna put the Patriots in a parlay where you're gonna take like an easy Patriot win and easy win somewhere else and then take an upset and put three things together and maybe make some money that way. That's the only way I'm getting involved in this one.

Speaker 1

I think I'm on to lay the nine. I'm not like to me, I think that's a.

Speaker 2

Lot for a lack of Juggernaut offense.

Speaker 1

It's a lot. It is a lot. I fail to see how the Texans can stop anybody right now. I think that if the Patriots want, they can run Damien Harris thirty five times and they can put up twenty eight points that way, Like, I realistically I think that. But yeah, Mac Jones was impressive. You do have I think the potential for a letdown game here, right, Joe, Like, because even though they lost, they played their butts off in that game.

Speaker 2

Really, I think it's more potential for a letdown for the Bucks than for the Patriot.

Speaker 1

I think that's also true.

Speaker 2

I think the Patriots actually left that game going. We were this close. We were just close to the defending chance.

Speaker 1

It's the same time, though, you put in that much of an effort into what is an emotional game and you come that close, even a loss is still a letdown game. But certainly for the Bucks for sure, you can have that possibility. But it's possible for the Patriots. But either way, man, first of all, a total with the Texans. I don't care what it is like I'm staying away from it just because again, they could very

easily get shut out at any given point. But the bottom line is, I think that that Patriots defense is legitimate. I've thought this for a while, So they could potentially pitch a shut out here, you know, like well, I.

Speaker 2

Think the turnover on defense or a pick six, that's where you hit.

Speaker 1

I'm not worried about a backdoor cover here because I don't trust the Texans to be able to move the ball enough to score to get that back door cover. So if it's under ten, I'm not kidding. I'm fine taking this game. I realize it sounds ludicrous because it's a Patriots laying nine points, which really, you know, they don't have the horses to They don't.

Speaker 2

They don't have the horses for that right, I don't care, man, But the defense does. And if you anticipate them getting and if you believe that they score on defense in this game, which is very very possible, and the nine is very comfortable when it starts, I'm taking it could probably be eleven by the time I'm taking it.

Speaker 1

Now, that's correct. That's a good point, Joe. That's just part of what we do we're looking at I'm taking it now like I'm taking now. I'm not waiting for anybody to sort of see where it goes. I'm taking it now before it moves. Let's get to our next game here, Joe, we can talk about the Lions are visiting the Vikings. Vikings are seven and a half point favorites here and the totals forty nine and a half.

Speaker 2

Ah, the Vikings another tough one here. It's funny because you know, you and I always talked about the Baseball four outcome games. This past week when I had Chris Meety on the show for DFS, we ran away from this game between the Cleveland Browns and the Vikings last week because we said, this is four outcomes written all over. This could be a blow out on either side or disgusting like you know, sixteen thirteen kind of slugfests, whatever, and it's very closer to that. We're all a said

and done. The Vikings at home. They desperately need a W here in the worst way. Ye Sometimes it's just as simple as looking for the team that needs the W. That being said, what gives you pause is Detroit doesn't quit. In the past, we've seen Detroit quit a lot. I think Minnesota wins this football game, but I would like the Detroit side of the plus seven and a half.

I think that's a big number right now. I think that's a number it's gonna shrink to seven or even six and a half by the time we get closer potentially too. I just feel like the Lions, whether you know, they can't stack up talent wise to most teams, but the effort level is undeniable when you watch them play. They spread the ball around a little bit. You know, Khalif Raymond's played well, quind De Ciphas has played well. Monros Saint Brown had a very good game. You know,

they're starting to kind of figure it out a little bit. Offensively, disappointing game for them, no doubt they're gonna have a lot of disappointments. But seven and a half is a very big number for a Minnesota Vikings defense that ever since the preseason, really hasn't blown the doors off anybody and shown you that they are getting back to what they were a couple of years ago. So I would take the Lions and the seven and a half in

this one. I still think Minnesota wins his football game, but I think seven and a half is too much.

Speaker 1

If forced to pick aside, I would take the Lions with the hook because I just think that it has back to recover written all over it. But it's just a stay away from me man like because realistically, the Vikings should be able to win this game pretty handily. But like you mentioned, and there's something to be said, the Lions don't quit ever, and so you know, kudos to Dan Campbell, who we all made fun of a lot.

But it's just to stay away from me. A divisional game where the Vikings are desperate, but the Lions don't quit. Totals total, stay away from me. Not a game I want to touch. Nor is this one, Joe. The Bears are visiting the Raiders. It's a dead number where the Raiders are laying five and a half. The totals forty five and a half. You obviously have the Raiders coming off the short week. Dave Montgomery's going to be out

for four to six weeks. That just came across the wire as we were recording this, so he's obviously not going to play in this game. We don't know who the quarterback is going to be in this game for the Bears. So this is not something where I want to lock in value right now. I don't think Vegas knows what to do with this. I don't know what to do with this. It's a complete stay away for me. What do you think run away right?

Speaker 2

For outcomes written all over this bad boy? Too many variables. Variables do not make for a good investment. You've got lots of other games. Let this one go away.

Speaker 1

I agree, Let's just move on Brown's visiting the Chargers. The Chargers are the Browns, I'm sorry, are laying one point. Although it's back and forth here between you know, not that it really matters, but in some books the Chargers are laying a point. In other books, the Browns are laying a point. Right now, our consensus line is the Browns laying a point and the total is forty nine and a half.

Speaker 2

What do you think I'm going to lean towards the Chargers here?

Speaker 1

Yeah?

Speaker 2

I like what I've seen out of Herbert this year, and look, the Browns are a very good football team. But you know, this is back to back road games for them. That's a little tough. I think that the way justin Herbert's played this year is super impressive. The defenses played well. It was a big game for them, big victory. This is going to be a close one, and Vegas is telling it's gonna be a close one. I'm gonna in towards the Chargers here once again. This

is one where you can put it. I'd rather take the Chargers on the money line and just not even worry about the points or the points are small anyway. But if you want to do either one and put it in with something else, I don't think you just met this standing alone because it just doesn't have enough value. So what you want to do is you want to put this if you feel good about the Chargers, you take the one. If you're getting it, whatever you're getting

right now on FANDUL, you're getting plus one. I would take the plus one there at the minus one p. Fifteen, and I would put that in with something else here and then just continue to build from there into like

a couple games together. But I don't know, Dan, I mean, I'm very impressed with the Browns, but I think it's asking a lot of them to continue to be the road warriors here, you know, going to Minnesota one week and then having to turn right back around and going to LA the next I think that's a lot.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I was really impressed with the Chargers, and I think that like this is the Chargers, Joe, that I felt like every preseason coming in, every year, we were like, you know, Chargers could do this. Chargers could be really good. They have a very solid deep, the offensive line is good, They've got a lot of pieces, and it's like the optimal point of where they are. They're well coached now. So if I lean one way, it's basically a pick them essentially. At this point, I would lean the Chargers.

But really, Joe, actually the way I lean is the under here. It's forty nine and a half. The Browns defense is so good. Like I know, last week was a big disappointment from a fantasy perspective. Whatever from Kirk Cousins, I actually thought that the Vikings would pull that game out. They were getting I don't know, two points, I think two and a half points. I thought the Vikings might

be able to pull that game out. But for me, I think their defense is so solid that even an explosive offense like the Charters, I think they're going to be able to hang with them. And conversely, not only is the Charters defense very good, but the Browns offensively look a little kind of like we have the run game that is what is going to work. Maybe it was just last week. That's the worst game I've ever seen Baker Mayfield play in my life like he was.

Speaker 2

And this is Baker. Baker is good, forever inconsistent, And which is why I you're gonna laugh when I say this, because you're gonna say that's just Joe saying Chubb's not getting Chubb's not getting enough work, like Chubbs should be touching the football more. I think they got into two weeks ago, gotten to that little groove there with Kareem Hunt, and they started to love Kareem Hunt because that was a perfect matchup for Kareem Hunt against that defense. They

should have gotten away from it in this game. They should have been feeding the ball to Nick Chubb Moore. I think if they feed the ball more than Nick Chubb, they have a real chance to win this football game in this one, because Herbert's just playing really good football right now. I don't know if they're gonna do that there. I think they're forgetting what made them so successful last year, which is running that play action off of Baker Mayfield

and Nick Chubb. And if Nick Chubb is only getting fifteen carries instead of twenty two carries, it's a big difference. The defense doesn't commit as much.

Speaker 1

Yeah, so if you are, if you don't follow us at Fantasy Bros, you should be aware that Joe is Nick Chubb's biggest fan. And if Joe, if Joe were the if Joe was the Browns coach, Nick Chubb would get forty carries a week, just so you know, it would be that and then like one play action pass club Chubb Club that is Joe. I also think, by the way, that the loss of Jarvis Landry, who you know is going to be out again this week, is a big deal. That's sort of a safety blanket there

or so to me, I lean the under man. I get that, you know, I think two really good defenses. I could see that Chargers being a little sluggish on the short week. I don't think that the Browns want to get too shoot out anyway, So I lean towards the under This is a game, Joe, so many variables. I don't want to do the app the only unbeaten team here, the Cardinals at home against the forty nine ers,

laying five and a half points, the total is fifty. Look, we don't even know if it's going to be Trey Lance at this point, right because suddenly it's come out to be like, oh, there's a Bruce for Jimmy. He may play Corross knows what's going on here. What do you think?

Speaker 2

I think they should play Trey Lance. That's what I think.

Speaker 1

Yeah, of course.

Speaker 2

That being said, I like the Cardinals in this game. I am not impressed by the forty nine Ers this year at all. I'm just not. And the one thing I will say it's, you know, in this league, especially when you have a quarterback that's locked in, it makes all the differ. Friends, and Kyler Murray right now is locked in. Like Kyler Murray's playing the best football he has ever played, and the fact that they surrounded him with similar weapons besides Hopkins make them a lot harder.

I was really impressed with Chase Edmonds in that game too. I've never been a big Edmunds guy, but he ran hard in that game last week. I mean physical hard, and that's not usually like the Chase Edmunds game as We're like, yeah, let's get him out in space a little bit, and you know, let's get him out wide. No, no, no, he was running hard in that game, knocking guys over, and that's that's a new dynamic. And then he adding Connor, who's a physical back, and the goal line in the

short yard situations. Arizona all of a sudden can beat you in lots of different ways. They still defensively have some hiccups there to clean up, but overall, you know, right now, I think Arizona is the real deal. And it's not just because they beat the Rams last week. It's because of the way they've played all year so far, and because the forty nine ers continue to struggle with the identity who's quarterback, who's running back, who's this? Who is that?

Speaker 1

I don't like that.

Speaker 2

I'm gonna lean towards the Cardinals. I know it's a big number, with the five and a half half typically, you know, I think that should give people pause. I'll say this, if Trey Lance is playing in this game, I would take the points with the forty nine ers. If he is not, I would take the Cardinals and the points on the other side.

Speaker 1

So you're waiting basically in the end to make any Oh.

Speaker 2

Gosh, she's gonna stink because this line's gonna change, right.

Speaker 1

Yeah, A stay away from me man on all sides, just because again there're too many things. And look, you know, one of my favorite bets that I made this year, even though it was discussing, was the Vikings when they were I forget how many points the were getting, maybe five and a half or whatever, four and a half against the Cardinals, because I did think that that was a game that they would stay close. And this strikes

me as that type of game too. And again I can't bet it here with the forty nine ers because I just don't know who's a quarterback and I don't know what's going on in that game. I also can't bet the total for now. I don't know though how I feel about it. I'm not taking the Cardinals because I do think that the Cardinals, as good as they look at various times, they're gonna throw out these games like against the Vikings, where they're just not gonna be able to put a team away and keep it close.

So this is just to stay away from me in a divisional game. But it's one I'm going to be excited to watch. I hope it's Trey Lance. Another one I'm actually going to be excited to watch, which I didn't think I would even though it's so cool, is the Giants visiting the Cowboys. Here, the Cowboys are laying seven. The total is fifty to Daniel Jones playing by far

the best football he's ever played in his career. Cowboys looking a little bit like the Juggernaut that we thought they might be able to look like if everything went right. What do you think here?

Speaker 2

Cowboys is smash ooh, smash this game they are. Cowboys are just significantly better personnel wise than the Giants. And typically I wouldn't do this because typically in division games get very dicey, especially old rivalry games, they get very tight,

you know. But I'm in a long conversation again. On the IDP Show last week, the other defense we talked about was the Cowboys and the difference that Michael Parsons makes that what Diggs is doing right now, but it's really what Parsons is doing, because what Parsons does is he just kind of wrecks everything. So even though it's

not showing up necessarily in the tackle numbers all the time. Yeah, when you watch him play, he's everywhere in the right place and he's shutting other things down because he's such a fast linebacker. It's like when you watch Devin White sometimes too. He's just always in the right place at the right time. And for a young kid to have that kind of instincts is just huge. And him and Vandersh together right now are playing really well. So for me, I think that's just a lot for Daniel Jones, who

has been very mistake prone. They're down to wide receivers. I don't think they're gonna get either of them back this week. I don't thinks Tony is enough to kind of make up that deficit necessarily. I think they put a hurtin on the Giants. I think this is a statement game for the Cowboys. I think this is gonna be a bad scene and Giant fans are gonna feel like, hey, we're going there with some momentum and the Cowboys are

just going to shut it down. So I know it's seven, I would take the seven right now because I fear it could be nine by the time we get there.

Speaker 1

Oh my gosh. Okay, all right, so I do not feel nearly as confident as you do. Look very easily, I could see the Cowboys destroying them in this game. And I think that without Shepherd and without Slayton as I expect again in this game, I think that's really dicey, because I do think that Trayvon Diggs is playing what as well as anybody.

Speaker 2

Else, has been out of his mind. But absolutely, once again, it's a complete package, and dan Quinn's done a very good job of kind of rebuilding the confidence of this defensive unit. But at the same time, if you were watching closely last year, again, second half, a lot of people start to tail off towards the last six weeks of football, when all of a sudden, you know, fantasy isn't as much of a thing. Right When Van Dersh came back healthy, they were not the doormat they were

earlier in the year either. They started to pick it up a little bit and those games were a little closer, a little tighter, and they were not embarrassing on defense as they were in the beginning of the season they were just flat out embarrassing. This year, they are definitely not embarrassing this year. They're playing better and they're Abody gets some of the older guys in rotation too, which

is good. So they're getting them a little breeders, so they're a little fresher in some of these moments of these games too, and that's huge because they little bit

more depth than they had last year. Also, I just think that the Cowboys are the class of this division right now, and they're just gonna put a hurting on the Giants because I don't the Giants can't afford to play the way they did last week against New Orleans because Dak Prescott is going to destroy them if they give the same opportunities to Dak Prescott that they gave to James Winston and Tastar last week.

Speaker 1

All Right, I'm staying away from it personally, but I like your confidence. Let's go. This is a game that maybe we don't deserve, but we need right now, and that is the Bills visiting the Chiefs on Sunday Night football. The Chiefs right now are laying two and a half points. The total is eleventy billion. It's fifty six and a half. Fifty six and a half. Like, I don't even know what you do with that. So, Joe, what do you think I.

Speaker 2

Like the Buffalo Bills plus one twenty on the money line just to win this game out right now. That's the best wager of all these That's the one I feel the safest about. Believe it or not, Buffalo Bills are playing tremendous Josh Allen has something to prove here in this game. And Kansas City, you know, I know they looked so good last week, but that was against the Eagles and Tyree Hill, random, ok, and all that stuff.

But I gotta tell you, there's just something that feels a little off right now with the Chiefs to me, and maybe this is it. Maybe this is the one they've circled and this is the game that's like, Okay, you know, we gotta play. Buffalo is a huge game. Maybe they've been looking ahead a little bit of this one. I don't know. I mean, the fifty six and a half is a huge number. I would be shocked if it went under. Still yeah, oh ditto, right right, It's

still a big number. But it's like it kind of feels.

Speaker 1

Like you can't bet the unders of all energy just that defense is so poor, and that's that has not been the case in recent years. That's the thing that I feel like we're not talking about enough. Like as good as the Chiefs offense, you know, continues to be like, their defense is abysmal. And part of the reason why they were so good is that they're their defense was

very bend. But don't break in these games. You know, they they had some personalities, and they had some injuries obviously, and they have had some injuries, but still well, that defense is basically a defense that you pick on. Right now, Josh Allen should go nuts, and it's really about whether or not Mahomes can go nuts against the Bills defense, by the way, which is playing extremely well.

Speaker 2

And without Poyer for two weeks, who's been hurt. So I don't know what Poyer status is yet for this week, but if they get him back to you, that's a huge piece in the secondary to return the look the Buffalo Bills, you know, were measured last year and they were found lacking a little bit okay when it got down to the nitty gritty, But this is usually how

it happens. Right Usually you have this team that you know, starts to feel good about itself, starts to pull itself out of the ashes, and then they run into the Juggernaut and they get checked and they go okay. And now it feels like, you know you're in a certain point here with the Chiefs where you know all the expectations constantly might be weighing on them a little bit.

I think Buffalo is the team that comes in here fast and loose, and they should And that's why, of all the things, I think your best ROI is that plus one twenty.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I do you like the Bills. If you like the Bills, you might as well take them on the money line rather than getting the two and a half points at this point.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I don't know mat the points. I wouldn't scround the points of this game, all right.

Speaker 1

Monday night football cults are visiting the Ravens. The Ravens are laying seven points. The total is forty seven.

Speaker 2

What do you think It's hard not to lean the Ravens in this game? For sure? With the seven, it would not shock me to see this go to seven and a half or even eight and a half or something by the time we get closer. I think this one's gonna grow. I would lock this in now Baltimore at home on a Monday night. I would lock this in.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think that's right. And I think who was it, David Coke maybe from you know, a great you know bookmaker over in Vegas that we talked about a couple of years ago, and he was always like, you know, John Harbad doesn't just want to win, he wants to break your spirit. And I think that that's what you are going to see here. And again, kudos to the Colts that came out. They played well, but again once as far from healthy, they're still sort of down, you know,

in their receiving core. You know, I like Michael Pittman Jr. But I offense believe they're not a team that can really hang it again. The Ravens. They may get Rashad Bateman back here, which would help, maybe not or whatever, But I agree with you, Joe, I would take the Ravens here, and I probably look to lock it in now just in case of climbs higher than a field goal, because I higher than a touch on part of me, because I think with a touchdown at least, you you know,

probably lock in hopefully at worst case of push. Joey, that's it. That's all the games. Thank you so much for popping on with me today.

Speaker 2

It's always a pleasure. I love spending quality time with my good friend Dan.

Speaker 1

Harris, so we'll be back on Thursday, as we always are, talking about our three best bets, or at least my three best bets, our guest three best bets. In the meantime, enjoy a couple of days off here from football betting. We'll talk to you again in a couple of days.

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