Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. Week three is almost over. It is time to look ahead at the lines for week four. There are some intriguing things we're gonna want to talk about here. To do it with me is Pat fitz Morris. You can find him on Twitter at fits underscore ff. He is a senior editor here at Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros. Pat. Thank
you for joining me this morning. How you doing great? Dan?
Week four looks pretty fun. I can't wait to talk about it.
The Thursday night game gets us off on a really disgusting start, but you know, I guess it'll get better, right.
Yes, it does get a lot better.
But even the worst football game is the best football game, as we saw sort of, even with the Panthers in the town. So let's get into all of it here for week four. Before we do, let me tell you about the latest offer from bet MGM. New customers can bet five dollars and win one hundred dollars in free bets if they bet on an NFL football game and either team scores a touchdown, so you get that you have five dollars. You win one hundred dollars in free
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That means it is almost October and that is when the giveaway for the two a tongue of I lois signed Jersey ends. All you got to do to be entered is lead review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cash Box and then go to be Bettingpros dot com sorry slash review. That is it three times the entries. By the way, if you subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. And again, every Sunday morning, we do a live stream me and
Matt Pearl from eleven to twelve. We talked about our best bets, we talked about props. It's a lot of fun. So again, leave a review for the show on Apple podcast or castbox and go to Bettingpros dot com slash review and subscribe to our YouTube channel three times the entries. All right, Pat, let's get into it with the game that everybody wants to see. It is the Jaguars visiting the Bengals. You told me the Bengals were going to be a seven and a half point favorite over anyone
this year. I might have added you at the beginning. But the consensus line is seven and a half. There are some sevens out there. Again at bettingpros dot com we have consensus lines. Where have books from all over. I'm DraftKings, Pat, You've talked how you do DraftKings. It's seven there, but against consensus line seven and a half. The total consensus total forty five and a half. So just what's your reaction to that line?
Yeah, so that hook is going to be all important. Dan, I think I'm inclined to take the points if I can get Jacksonville, Like I know, that had to be a big game for the Bengals against their longtime rivals Dealers. To go in in Pittsburgh and win that game, you just wonder if they might be looking a little bit past the next game on the schedule, or weren't maybe thinking that much about that one. So, you know, big game for the Jaguars. They were actually scrappy er this
past week. Things got away from them against the Cardinals. They just ran into too much firepower worth with Kyler Murray in that offense. But yeah, seven and a half, Just laying seven or seven and a half with the Bengals just doesn't feel good. And the seven and a half is that's just I can't quite get over that big obstacle.
So I make this analogy I probably last time. It's one of my favorite ones. I'm a big movie person. Random movie scenes pop into my head when I'm thinking about something, and I think of the Princess Bride, and I think of the Zeni doing the wine glasses and just looking at this game and the spread of being like I clearly cannot choose the wine in front of you, and I clearly can choose the wine in front of me,
because that's what this is, and it strikes me. Pat is like, I'm gonna look at every Jaguars spread and I'm gonna be like, oh, there's value on the Jags right now. Like there is very clearly value on a seven and a half point spread on the Bengals coming off a giant win here against the Steelers. It's a prime letdown spot the Jaguars, right they fought, they fought. I mean they got Look, they got a one hundred and nine yard kickoff return. That's not gonna happen every time.
But there were moments where you said, oh my god, they're going to beat the Cardinals at this point. But it reminds me of the Jets the other year where you were just like, I can't I know there's value on the Jets, but I can't take the Jets right now because there's such a dumpster fire. So I think in the end it's just gonna be something I stay away from. Padded, it's not it's not something I can go near. The total also forty five and a half
forty six. Actually it's between forty five vanduels forty five bet MGM is forty six, so forty five and a half. I don't really see value on the total.
Do you No, I don't either way. That seems like something I'm just gonna lay off entirely. I will make the case for Jacksonville, Dana. I do think they are a livelier bad team than either the Texans or the Jets right now. Jets might have a lively defense, but their offense is pretty much non functional. There were moments of functionality with Trevor Lawrence and that offense yesterday, and I think he's going to turn the corner pretty abruptly
at some point and at least be capable. I mean, he's just making bad decisions right now, and I think he's going to pick it up pretty quickly. He's made more bad decisions in three games than we saw him making three years at Clemson, So you know, I think that's going to turn around. The defense isn't totally awful, so I think they're a little scrappier than some of these other just complete dumpster fire teams.
Twenty twenty one Jaguars moments of functionality. Let's go to the Texans visiting the Bills seventeen point favorite. No big deal here, the totals forty eight. What do you do, pat when you have a spread this large. I mean, is there any value on taking the dog at this point given where we are?
Yeah, just like I don't like betting Alabama Vanderbilt games in college, Dan, I really shy away from a line like this. I mean, there's just so much wiggle room for the underdog here, and yet I can't take the underdog because Buffalo really does look like one of the three or four best teams in the league. Their defense
now matches their offense, if not more so. And you know, even though the Texans were fairly scrappy against Carolina, another good defense last week, and even though they've had we'll have had ten days to prepare for this one, I can't take them with the points. I'm this is a stay away.
There's no way, there's no way you can take the Texans in this game, just because again the Bills. You're right, Pat, Like I realized that Josh Allen in the first couple of games, he looked great on Sunday, but I realized that there was some like, oh, this looks a little like the old Josh Allen. Who knows what we're gonna see? Their defense has been so incredibly impressive to me, and I know they've had a great pass defense, but you know they're run to you just all over the place.
They look really, really good. There's no way I can take it. But I also like, like, I can't take a team lank seventeen points. I just I can't do that, you know, no matter what fluky things can happen to allow them to cover. And the total. Again, also one of these things where I assume you agree is just like I don't really know how to feel about like watching this game, I have no idea what the total could be. I mean, the Bills could get there by themselves realistically
or right. But if they don't, who knows what it's going to be. So that is a stay away for me, at least on that side. Wuld agree with that.
On the total, I do because if it does play out as they expect and you know, the Texans, I think they're expected point total based on the line is something like fifteen and a half points, And if it does get out of hand, you could see the Bills taking the arrow out of the ball and just giving it to Zach Moss and Devin Singletary a lot in the second half, And you know, I could see the Bill going over by themselves, or I could see this just being a really dead second half where we see
seven or ten points scored after intermission.
All right, Saints are at home length and they will be at home for this game. Right, I read they're back to Nordy, I think so. I think they were cleared, So I think they're home and they will be laying eight to the zero to three Giants a low total here forty three and a half. What do you think?
I always kind of like taking the teams dand coming off really disappointing victories against the fat and happy teams coming off a win. At least if the team coming off the disappointed victory is good enough to do something about it, that's the open question with the Giants. I don't know if they're good enough to do anything about it. But like when teams are a little bit embarrassed, and
I think you're embarrassed losing a home game to the Falcons. Yeah, I think they're going to come out a little a little angry at this one. So I'm inclined to take the points here. I kind of like the Giants.
Does the fact, like all the injury that they have on offense, I realize when you're doing you know, the most important things when you're looking at the line really are like offensive line injuries and everything like that. But that, I mean, they're probably not gonna have Startling Sheppard. They're probably not going to have you know, Darius Slayton in this game. Sakuon look good. Yesterday we talked about so
maybe the offense opens up a little bit. Does that matter to you whatsoever their health or you just think there's value.
Regarding that much because they get Evan ingram back. I actually think Colin Johnson. I was surprised that Jacks released him, Like he's a decent fill in player and you know, had a couple of catches for them yesterday. So yeah, I just kind of like them, and nothing about that Saints offense has really impressed me. They've done a great job taking short fields, yes, and punching it in on
short fields so far. But like we haven't seen eighty yards seventy yards sustained drives from Jamis yet, you know, I don't know if they can get that from him consistently, Like that's always been Jamis's thing. He'll he'll zip it down in a couple of plays sometimes but sometimes when you ask Jameis to go eighty or ninety yards, you're going to get that turnover first before you get points.
So do you think there's any chance that this gets down to a touchdown by the time we get to Sunday? Like, is there any value if you like the dog right now taking it now? Or do you think that it's probably going to end up here at eight?
I think it'll probably end up at eight. I don't think it gets bet down just because I know I would think the Saints are the more public team here. Sure, so yeah, I don't necessarily I don't know. I wouldn't be opposed to pouncing on it now, but I don't think it's urgent. I don't think that line's going to be driven way down.
It strikes me as a very sharp versus public type of game, right, I think, like right, the number of bets is going to be heavily weighted to the Saints. The amount of money is probably going to be pretty much fifty to fifty in this game. But if there is a side to take care, I agree with you because I think the Saints are I think ideally you know that the Saints right now, do not want Winston throwing out up like crazy. We talked about a little
bit yesterday and the Fantasy Bros. Podcast that they want to be conservative if they can, which I think is going to bleed the clock. I mean, realistically, Pat, even though it's a low total, I think there's probably value
on the under. I don't think I'll bet it on the forty three and a half because it's such a low total, but it strikes me as a game where, you know, similar to the Falcons Giants game yesterday, which I think hit thirty one right seventeen fourteen strikes me as kind of a slow moving defensive game where the clock's just going to kind of run a little bit here, And I could see value on the under, but I'm not betting it because I just it's right under in it.
Other than the Jets Broncos, where I felt very confident in the under in that game, I just don't think there's a lot of you know, you can't feel good about betting any under in the NFL pretty much.
Yeah, So I'm kind of with you there, Dan, I could see that sort of game developing, But I could also see with a Daniel Jones versus Jameis Winston game turnovers and short fields which can pile up points in a hurry. So it's a game that could kind of go one of two ways with that total, and I just don't want to try to guess which way it's going to go.
That's an outstanding point. Actually, there could be a lot of short fields in that game, so I would say way. But you know, it does strike me as absentely that neither team is going to pile up the points. Let's go to the Eagles at home getting six from the one and two Chiefs, which is a little bizarre. The total is fifty five. Now, we are recording this on Monday, early on during the day. We have not seen the Eagles play yet tonight. There could be injuries. This line
certainly could move depending on what happens. But just looking at it right now, what do you think here? The Eagles getting six at home, total of fifty five?
Oh, man, Dan, I think the last time I won a bet on the Chiefs, like taking them with a spread, like either Alex Smith was quarterback, maybe it was Todd Blackledge. I can't remember. It's been a long time. So yeah, I just like I hate the Chiefs giving away that sort of heavy total against you know, a capable team on the road. I really like the Eagles in this one. I just the Chiefs don't seem quite all there the formula they're using right now, which you know Patrick Mahomes
wins the games. Just try to maybe bend but not break as the defense force a couple of turnovers. Like it's this defense is not especially good, Like they are very turnover dependent, and if they don't get those turnovers, you can move the ball on them. And you know, plus we've got a live quarterback on the other side with Jalen Hurts who's gonna make plays. It's gonna be a fun game. But I would absolutely take the Eagles in this. I don't want to lay the points with the Chiefs.
Yeah, there's no way you can take the Chiefs, I think. And also, by the way, if you do like the Chiefs at all, like you don't need to worry about like it's not getting at seven unless something crazy happens tonight obviously or something like like Hurts goes down or something. But it's not getting to seven because this is what I mean, everybody, it's that spread against starters stuck at six six and a half all week because you knew
exactly what's going on. The Chiefs just don't cover. But I agree with you, Pat, Like the biggest thing that sticks out to me right now about the Chiefs is that defense, which again last year was was fine, you know, but this year it's really just a you know, they're going to give up a ton of yards. Maybe they can keep you out of the end zone. For the
most part, it's bad. It's a bad defense right now, and it's really hard to feel confident at all against a team that doesn't cover the spread on its best day anyway, right Like, that's just not what they do. They win games, but they don't. So I agree with you. I like the Eagles here go ahead.
Sorry, no, I was just going to add one more thing that with Andy Reid hospitalized after that last game, it's not going to be a normal work week for the Chiefs, which is another thing to factor and I think.
I think that's a great call there as well. So again we'll see what happens tonight, but I do lean Eagles. Washington is visiting Atlanta. The Falcons are favored here by a point which I don't know why it struck me as a little strange, but maybe not. I'll be interested to hear you and the totals forty eight and a half. What do you think about this one?
Sounds like we're thinking the same thing, that this is probably a good spot for Washington. I guess just fundamentally, my opinion of Washington has not changed that much, even though I've kind of been disappointed with their results these first three weeks. Like I think that defense is better than it's played, and you know, I just think this shapes up as a pretty good team versus a pretty bad team, and you know, I'm willing to take the road team here.
Yeah, it's surprising to me, Like I assumed Washington would be fair. I get that their defense has been somewhat disappointing. I understand that, but I mean, playing the Bill I think really yesterday what we saw, Pat is we saw a really really good Bills team, like just kind of stick it to them, Like I don't blame them nearly as much as I credit the Bills in that game. So yeah, that's crazy to me. Actually, I really In fact, I'm going to fire on it probably in the middle
of this podcast. No, No, offense too. I like to do that bad in the middle of podcasts where I see something be like, okay, yeah, I would. I mean again, it's you know, whether a team is favored by one or laying one Like It's not a huge difference obviously, so I don't think you have to rush to do it or anything like that. But the wrong team is favored in this matchup in my opinion, Cowboys laying four and a half to the Panthers with the total of fifty.
Once again, we have not seen the Cowboys yet play tonight, so maybe something happens. Four and a half is in that dead zone here for a team we don't know. Christian McCaffrey's status less than a grade one hamstring straight is what we were hearing. But I still wouldn't expect them to necessarily play even with the ten days. They just made a trade right before we did, to trade
Dan Arnold and bolster their cornerback in it. So what do you think here, Cowboys laying four and a half at home coming off a short week Panthers off the minibi.
As much as I respect the Panthers defense and think that is a very legitimate unit this year, I think I like the Cowboys a little bit here against the depleted You know, I am going to make the leap of faith and assume that Christian McCaffrey is not going to play in this one. So I think they are just gonna have a little too much firepower for the Panthers. As good as that defense is, I don't know if
they can completely hold down the Dallas offense. And you know, I just I think at home, the Cowboys should probably get this done.
Interesting, I think I come on the other side, pat and again, I don't think that this is something where you have to bet it either way, right because it's in that dead zone. It's not like it's getting a three. It's not like it's getting a seven. It's four and a half. You're fine either way. But you know, to me, I mean, look, kudos to the Cowboys for winning that game against the Chargers last week, where I like, I was on the Chargers getting three or laying three in
that game. Sorry, so kudos to them, But you know their offensive line is, you know, so you know, just you know, well, Collins obviously down. It's fine. It hasn't played quite as well as sort of I expected. They have injuries on defense. I feel like either way, the Cowboys, I don't want to say this the wrong way. I don't know if they have the mentality to go out there and win a game by two touchdowns at this point, like they just seem like the type of team that
will let you hang around. And even without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers don't look like world beaters certainly there, but Juba Hubbard is able to get it done and out. DJ Moore is a star. Robbie Anderson is still there. I don't know what he's doing exactly, but they have enough I think where they can keep it close. So I think if I'm getting overfield goal in this game, again, not having seen what happens tonight, I'm willing to kind
of ride with the Panthers in this one. Do you like the total back, because I mean, I think you think the Cowboys are gonna score. It's fifty, so it's a high total, But do you have any value there with that one?
I'm inclined to go over on this one. I don't think there's gonna be just enough. And boy, I mean that's maybe counterintuitive. As good as I've felt about the Panthers defense, like that's been one of the biggest surprises of the season. I think how good they have been. Yeah, and you know, almost borderline elite defense. But you know, I still think Dallas, even with the offensive line wells
can put up points on them. And I don't think Dallas is going to completely shut down Carolina, So I do think it's probably going to squeeze over that that fifty total.
I agree, And again it's a lot of fifteen and a half's already out there, so it's it's in between. But I agree with you. I lean the over, and I have been impressed as well with the Panthers defense, But I don't think you're stopping I don't think really there is a defense that can fully stop the Cowboys offense so long as Dak is healthy and he's got at least two pass catchers and both running backs really are putting up points. So I agree, I lean over
here with the fifty. Let's go to the Browns visiting Minnesota. The Vikings are laying one point and the total is fifty two and a half. As a game, I'm excited to watch. What do you think here about the spread?
I am probably considering this a stay away because I do think this works out to be basically a true coin flip with the Vikings at home against a good team.
I may have said the Vikings are laying one, by the way, if I did, it's the Browns are getting Okay, they're getting one. I apologize, I apologize. Yeah, the Browns are the favorite by one. Again, it doesn't matter that much, you know, when you're when you're thinking about it, whether you're laying one, whether you're getting one. But the Browns here, I'm sorry, are laying one. Sorry if I misspoken, Yeah, that's okay.
So I think the the spread is a stay away from me. I'm more interested in the total and maybe playing this one under. Just the way the Browns play. I think they, you know, are the ultimate ball control team and uh sort of want to play slow, whereas maybe Minnesota might want to push the tempo a little bit. I think the Browns want to go four corners a little bit here, run the ball with Chubb and haunts,
have Baker manage the game. That's kind of been the Stefanski formula this season, and I think it's going to apply here too.
I agree with you. You know the Dolphin, that the Dolphin's gonna Sorry, the Vikings are explosive really this year, you know, more than ever, and Cousins is playing great, and the receivers are playing really well, and you know, you've got the ton End now involve. But realistically, I think that this game is kind of a slugfest in a slower moving game than I think most people are
going to expect. So at fifty two and a half, that's what it was, that's that's too high for me, So I am going to go under there as well.
And the other point I would make about that is just that if the Vikings had maybe a band in the run yesterday without Dalvin Cook, I might feel a little differently at all. But they really didn't, Like they're not going to get away from the running game entirely under Mike Sammer, like we've seen that for several years now, and they didn't get away from it yesterday.
So yeah, and they didn't need I'm Madison look great, So that's good that they stuck with it. So even if Cook is out, which I kind of think he might be for this one, just given what you know, he didn't sound particularly close to playing it. Doesn't really matter in terms of how we view the game. So I agree with you there. Let's go to the Cults are visiting the Dolphins. The Dolphins are laying a point and a half and the total is a low forty three and a half. What do you think.
I don't think I can support the Colts they're in a road game with unless they're getting more points than that. But man, this is a this is a tough one. Like this is just two teams I do not trust at all, So I probably will not touch this one. I don't know how you feel about it, Dan, if either of these teams grabs you, But have they given us a reason to want to throw our arms around them yet either one?
I will. I will be watching this game because we watch every football game pat as our job, both as you know, on both sides. But I have no interest in having like a vested interest in this game on one in one way or another. No, I don't. And again, look, if you forced me, right, if you were like, hey, Dan, here's one hundred bucks you have to bet it on this game, I'd probably just take the Dolphins because I think they probably wind up coming out ahead in this game.
But I would have no confidence in doing it whatsoever, So just to stand away for me, not a game I want to get any piece of. So let's move on to uh. I don't know how I feel about this one. Pat is the Bears at home against the Lions. They're length three and a half, so get that hook if you want to take the Lions. And the total is also forty three and a half. Justin fields. We talked about it yesterday on our fantasy podcast. Looked terrible,
the offensive line was abysmal. The Bears offense looked broken. I assume it's still gonna be fields in this one just from everything I've seen about Dalton not being ready yet. So what do you think here? With them length three and a half against the Lions.
Doesn't it feel like the odds makers just sort of threw up their arms with this one and didn't know what to do with it. And you know, under Dan Campbell, the Lions have indeed been biting kneecaps. Dan, I mean they've they refused to let the forty nine ers put them away in week one. You know, Week two against the Packers kind of got away from them. But then yesterday they should have probably I mean they should have
and they shouldn't have won that game. Hollywood Brown should have had like two or three touchdown catches, and yet the Lions it took that sixty six yard bounce off the uprights field goal to put them away. So they have been really scrappy. On the other hand, two weeks ago, we saw the Bears put together a pretty good game at home against the Bengals, and you know, they're one solid effort this season. I do think they've got a better team. Like I've been almost pleasantly surprised by the
Bears defense. The front seven has been pretty good, actually covering up for some of the holes they might have in the back end. And meanwhile, like Detroit's got some major coverage issues. I mean, this was one of the worst groups of cornerbacks to begin with, and they lose Jeffrey Akuda, their best cornerback, and then Melafan who's probably
their second best guy. And I forgive me for not knowing whether there's any chance if Malafanu who comes back this week, But I mean, they had so many blown c against the Ravens, and like the Ravens just couldn't fully cash in yesterday. But I think even as dysfunctional as that Bear's passing game look this past week, Yeah, I think it's destined to look a little better. It
has to, dan, doesn't. I mean, like Matt Nagy is not going to be there next year, but he's playing for his next job, and whether that's like a job as a a you know, maybe an O C or a quarterbacks coach at the NFL level, or you know, the quarterbacks coach at with the San Diego State Aztecs next year. Like he's a young coach, he's still got a career ahead of him, and like he better get this ironed out with fields fast, yeah, or he's gonna be in Siberia next year.
I assume that it's going to be better than what we saw yesterday. But Pat, you and I could be out on the football field and it might be better than what we saw yesterday. All Right, I'm not gonna bet this game. I'm not. I'm just gonna be transparent. I'm not gonna bet this game. There's no way, because
I don't feel common either way. But I think if it stays here where I'm getting the hook, I'll take the hook, and I'll assume that even if the Bears pull it together and it gets better from what we saw yesterday, that the Lions figure out a way to keep it close and get the garbage time with Swift and sort of keeping it there and keeping it within a field goal. In a divisional game where I can't trust either team, I will just basically take the hook.
It surprises me a little bit here because I think it begs you to take the hook, and I don't know why the bookmakers necessarily would want that. I mean maybe maybe with what you're saying, like it makes sense that they would, but I don't know how you can feel confident in either team at this point. So it's just something where I don't want to go near. What about the total pad at forty three and a half anything there?
Yeah, I'm inclined to play it over. I mean, we have seen that Detroit just can't cover. They don't have the person to cover anyone, and like Alan Robinson and Darnell mood are going to be open at points in that game, and Fields is a good arm. I mean, he it was the pass rush that was causing him all sorts of problems yesterday, and if they can keep
him just the least little bit clean. I think he's going to be able to do some business against this Detroit secondary, which is just in tatters right now.
Yeah yeah, all right. Let's get to the Jets hosting the Titans. The Titans are laying seven and a half and the totals forty six. What do you think?
Oh man, it's so hard to back the Jets right now, as dysfunctional as it's beending. Yet the Titans not a team you really feel comfortable laying seven and a half with, so probably a stay away from me. How do you feel about this one? I just nothing grabs me here.
That's all right. I think there's value on the Jets that I will not be taking like that. That's how I view it. And I think that realistically, when you look at these games with the Jets, you're going to say all the trends are going to suggest the Jets and everything, and I think they'll put up points like
I don't know. I certainly even hate the forty six as the over under there because I do think that this is a game where you'll see what happens a little bit when the Jets aren't playing a good defense like they played the Broncos. They had the Panthers in Week one, they had the Patriots. They've played some decent defenses. Who can really you know, hone in on the fact that their line is terrible. So I think you'll probably
see some offense. So I don't I don't hate the over at forty six, but realistically we also we don't know a j Brown status or anything like that. Not that that necessarily means a ton, but it's a stay away from me. Really, I think there's value on the Jets that I have no interest in taking whatsoever. And like you said, like I just I can't really back the Jets, but the Titans have seemed a little dysfunctional
at times. Even yesterday in a game that I thought that they would they I mean, they wound up winning the final scores. Fine, they covered the spread. I had them with the spread, but they didn't look particularly impressive overall. Right, So I think that it's something where the Jets can maybe hang around. I think it'll go over, but I'm not betting it either way.
Yeah, that sounds right, And you make a good point about the Jets having faced some really tough defenses and this is probably going to be their easiest opponent. Maybe they can move the ball a little bit more, but yeah, they were just kind of drawing dead against the Broncos in Denver yesterday.
And they were and again, and I think that our guests from this past week, Alex kalo J basically it said, or maybe it was Andrew Kaylee last week at it which was basically a after this week, start taking the over on the Jets games, because I think you will see the offense is not The offensive line is terrible, but the offense is not quite as dysfunctional as it necessarily has shown, you know, given it they have we'll see Elija more obviously at the concussions, so we'll see
about that. But they can move the ball like they're just they have run into some difficult defenses right now, and I think you'll see them put up some points in this game. So I do lean the over forty six, but the spread is an absolute runaway for me, because I think there's value on the Jets that I have no interest in going near. The forty nine Ers are at home here laying three and a half to the Seahawks. The total is fifteen and a half. What do you think about this?
One. Pat oh Man, I'm going to have to take a longer look at this one, because right off the bat like nothing grabs me. You'd think the forty nine ers would be in kind of a good bounced back spot. But then again, you know, Seattle didn't play their best game against Minnesota. So man, it just it seems like
the right line. Like I don't know who the better team is right now, So three and a half for the home team sounds about rights and probably leaning over like I think it would probably go over, But then again, I'm not entirely sure about that either. Garoppolo didn't look great against the Packers on Sunday nights. The pass rush
was really getting to him, and I know Seattle. I think the thing that drives me towards the over more than anything else is I think Seattle is another one of these teams that people are going to attack all year, like their cornerbacks are not good, but they can put
heat on the passer. And green Bay, which had not put an any pressure on anyone all season, was getting the Garoppolo in Sunday Sunday night, and so I think Seattle's going to maybe be able to get to him and hold up that back end a little bit, but we'll see him. I'm leaning over here. I kind of want to dig into this one a little bit more before I lock anything in.
Yeah, I agree that the over is the play here, and that you made a good point like this. I did not expect the Seahawks to be able to just generally get as much pressure as they have gotten so far this year, so I could see that being something. But I do think that there's going to be points scored in this game for sure. Interesting though, Pat, I will ask you, because you basically said you don't know which one of these teams is the better team, why doesn't that drive you to take the hook?
Then?
If you're getting the you know, the three and a half, if you think you know, I'm not sure, why don't Why don't you just take at this point the the you know they're asking you to, they're asking you to ice.
Yeah, I just don't like that half point Sometimes isn't compelling enough for me, Like, you know, oh, if it was three, i'd walk away from a hook. I'm taking it. I guess I don't feel that strongly about that extra half point.
Okay, fair enough, How about the rams are hosting the Cardinals. The matchup of three and zero teams. Here, the Rams are laying six points. The total is fifty three and a half. I love, by the way that it's like the total just like fifty three, fifty four, fifty five like routinely now in the NFL. It's kind of crazy. But again, what do you think they're six points fifty three and a half total.
I'm inclined to go for the Cardinals just because I think it's going to be a close game, like a really close one, and I think the Rams are maybe getting a little too much credit for albeit a very convincing win against the Buccaneers, and that's it. I think the Rams are being rewarded for beating the team that a lot of people maybe pegged as the best team in the NFL, the defending champions, who have been playing
greats going into Week three. So but this one just feels like it's going to be a really good game, and six points feels like too much to me.
Yeah, I agree, this strikes me at worse. The back door cover by the Cardinals like a long as Murray's healthy, they can score in three seconds if they absolutely need to, and you know, kudos to the Rams. They do look great, but you know they you can score off them, you can put up points, So I agree, do you awesome?
By the way, I'll just take the over, like I get that, like the total is high, but both teams are going to put up points in this game, so I will take the over this and again it's for me, Pat And you know, again we talked about draftings. It's actually forty fifty four and a half already, so that maybe I'll be like, okay, fine, like fine, you've got me. I'll stay away from it necessarily, but at fifty three and a half, I feel okay with it. Really it's it's there's gonna be points in this game.
Same, Yeah, I agree.
All right, your Packers are hosting the Steelers, laying seven points here with the Packers and until forty seven and a half that the Steelers, I mean, they look terrible. They've got injuries everywhere. You know, we don't know what receivers are going to be healthy. Their offensive line is and shambles.
What do you think you're Yeah, another thing, I kind of want to see the injury report for the Packers and whether Elton Jenkins is back. Although they did a pretty good job of protecting Aaron Rodgers without Jenkins, and you know, of course David Bacciari is still out. But I think the for the Packers' offensive line to hold up against two pretty good pass rushes in a row with that sort of loss of manpower up front might
be difficult. But as far as an offensive line holding up, I mean, Pittsburgh can't hold up to anyone right now. And the Packers finally generated a little bit of pass rush against San Francisco on Sunday night, you have to think they're going to be getting to big Ben Hunt Sunday. So yeah, I mean, I've seen this does look like kind of a letdown spot for the Packers after that emotional Sunday night victory. I'll probably walk away from this one.
But if you forced me to pick it, Dan, I would probably take the Homer pick and lay the points with the Packers.
So there are a couple of things I agree. The problem is really is the letdown right like that is such an emotional victory that they had there, and especially with Rogers' history with San Francisco and everything like that, like that that is really something on a Sunday night where you're just like, this is a prime letdown spot for the Packers, but I don't really care pat again because of how terrible the Pittsburgh offense looks right now, and just like, I mean, you know what we've said.
You know you said it yesterday we were talking. It was sort of like Ben. You know what Ben is doing. He's trying to survive long enough not to throw it downfield, but to find a three yard checkdown to Naji Harris, I think the offense is broken. By the way, I will say it's seven. Every single book I'm looking at except DraftKings right now is six and a half, so
that I certainly feel comfortable with doing. But I will even take it laying the seven because I think that, you know, the Packers, because of the fact that you know, they they look so bad in that opening game and they're still two and one. They've got to win, They've got to keep going with this. I do think that they still are going to be good enough to come
out out with you know, firing. I'm fine taking the over as well with forty seven half because I think Pittsburgh will put up enough points and I think the Packers are going to be able to score on the team, So I lean that way, but I will take the spread. How about here, Pat? This is a I love, you know, Broncos games man early in the season at home. Fascinating to see the Broncos three to zero, laying a point and a half to the Ravens at home. The total
is forty four and a half. What do you think of this one?
Like, I think the Broncos are the play. I'm still not quite on board with the Ravens. We saw them just barely escape with a win against Detroit. We saw them lose opening night to the Raiders. Like those injuries, the JK. Dobbins injury and the forgetting Marcus Peters injury, like those were so big, Like the Marcus Peters injury was really a blow to that defense. And yeah, I just don't think this is quite the same Ravens team we've seen in the past. And I do believe in
this Denver defense. I mean this is a very airtight defense. Just they can really cover in the back end. When you've got like three or four good cornerbacks, I mean that's just such a plus, Like you know that you're going to be, you know, not getting repeatedly burned in the passing game, and I don't think the Ravens really have the firepower to do that to anyone anyway. So yeah, I just like, I think this looks like a really good position for Denver, even though they're sort of riding high.
You know, Baltimore really got grabbed by the lapels and shaken a little bit by almost losing to the Lions, so I expect them to be on their toes for this one. But I just don't know if they're a good enough team to like overcome that Denver defense, and you know, Denver's got a pretty functional ball control offense. I just think Denver might be the better team.
I think you're right, and it's weird to feel that way, but especially also again, Denver at home early on in the season is just a spot where you want to
back the Broncos because again, the thin air there. Eventually teams are conditioned enough where it doesn't have quite as much of an impact, but throughout September, you know, early on in the season, it's kind of where you want to be here with the Broncos because again, they're kind of used to it, and I mean, we'll be in October technically when the game starts, but it is something where first four weeks of the season, the Broncos at home, they have a great record against the spread. There is
a reason for that. So I agree with you. I lean the Broncos. And it feels weird to sort of be saying that at this point, but I agree with you. I think they're the right side. How about the Bucks visiting the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The spread is six, so the Patriots are getting six, the totals forty nine.
I don't think I could take anyone but the Bucks in this game now, with like I don't know, we thought mac Jones was maybe going to be an efficient game manager, but he's really not been that at all. And you know, now no no James White for the Panther or the Patriots. That takes away dimension of their offense, and kind of an important one at that. So it's hard to see how the Bucks don't win this convincingly.
I mean, it's a great matchup, and you know, like we can give Bill Belichick all the credits and he's a fantastic coach, but like he likes to take away one thing, what are you taking away from the Buccaneers. Who are you taking away? You wait, Godwin Evans, Like, I just I don't know. I can't see the Patriots hanging in this one.
Nope, there's no way it's under touchdown. I will take
it any day of the week. Like, I feel very confident the Patriots are in my and we're overrated, you know, realistically, like the idea that Mac Jones could step in there, and again, they don't have anybody explode, Like, they don't have explosive playmakers anyway, right, I mean, you know, it's just they don't have the personnel necessarily regardless, but Jones is you know, they're not good enough for him to game manage their way to victories, especially against Tom Brady
returning to New England off a loss. Like everything just screams take the bucks here.
Yeah, And it's too bad, because I mean, how can this game not be great theater? Like can it be a great theater if it's not a close game? But I just can't wait to see what it looks like. But I just cannot conceive of the Patriots like winning this one or making it a really really tight game.
And ps, it's essentially going to be unless I completely misread the situation living here in New England, having basically all my friends, my wife's entire family being Pats fans. They their loyalty is to Brady, and at this point over the Patriots like they were a little mad some of them when he left, they were done. But then watching him succeed now it's watching his personality come out here with everything. It seems like they fully come on
board with Brady and are like whatever. Pats like, we can live with whatever. So it's probably it's not even gonna be a home build a bandage really for New England from what I can tell, so realistically, under field goal forget it. I'll take it all day long. Let's get to the last game, Monday Night Football, the Chargers at home taking on the undefeated Raiders. The Chargers are three point favorites. The total is fifty two and a half. What do you think here?
It's a fun, really fun way to wrap up the week. Leaning Chargers in this one. I guess I just believe in them a little bit more. I think that run defense is a bit of an achilles. I don't know if the Raiders can capitalize on that. May or May not have Josh Shacobs back. We're probably not even going to know when Sunday's games kick off, so that's going
to be confusing for fantasy people for sure. But just the way the Chargers handle the Chiefs this past week, I worried about kind of a sophomore slump for Justin Herbert. We're not getting that at all. He looks terrific. Mike Williams has taken another step up, like this passing game is now one of the better passing games in the league, no question. And you know, I just don't as good as Car has been, and he is hanging up some
crazy yardage totals so far. I just don't think the Raiders can go toe to toe with the Chargers on the road.
Yeah. I struggle with this, man. I mean, and I was on the Dolphins this weekend getting four or getting three and a half and they ultimately wound up covering. But I kind of expected the Raiders, especially with Car having the ankle injury, to be fla. You know, they came out a little flat, but they got there. All
three of those receivers are getting it done. But with that said, I agree with you like the run defense we talked about it's fine, and we were joking about fantasy about Peyton Barber is gonna have like forty carries or whatever, you know this week coming in because that's just what they do. But I agree, like, I feel like the charters at home in this game are the right side for it. Do you have any thoughts on the total? Which was where I lost it? Hold on it was fifty two and a half.
I kind of think there are gonna be points. I think it's gonna go over. I mean, maybe I'm not giving the Raiders defense enough credit. You know. Max Crosby has suddenly morphed into young JJ Watt basically where he just takes over games by himself. But I just feel like these teams are gonna run up and down the field a little bit. It has that sort of a feeling, So I'm gonna probably play something on the over.
I agree, it's you know, I hate taking the overs on these totals, man, they're so high, But it is the right side, you know, because again, you know the books, you know, they know the public. Because it's so much more fun to root force something than it is to root against something. So all these lines are inflated, and I just feel like it doesn't matter at this point.
Yeah, and it's two passing teams, I think, yeah, especially if there's no Jacobs. I think these are two teams that have to move the ball through the air and it just sets up like an over game. Yeah.
I agree with you. I agree with you, So take an hour if you like it. All right, that's going to do it. Pat, Thank you so much for joining me. By the way, Pat, you know who is a new full time edition here to our Fantas Bros and Betting Pros team. He's going to be doing a player props Pat and I both are fantasy rankers, as I'm sure most people listening to this no, so we generally have a good sense of player props in the market, and that is a market that you can take advantage of,
generally speaking. So I'm going to be doing a weekly player props video. Pat's going to be doing a weekly article on some favorite player props that he likes over here at Bettingpros dot com, So make sure to check that out. Pat, again, really appreciate you joining me. You can find pass work at Fantas Bros. And Betting Pros. I usually say, where can we find more of your work? Everybody knows at this point, but you can follow him
on Twitter at fits underscore FF. Thank you for joining us. Everybody, we'll talk to again. We'll be back later in the week. You're talking about some of our best bets for week four.