Hey there everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is time for an early look at the week three NFL lines. Here with me to do that is our good friend Andrew Kayley, Senior content producer over at Covers. Find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee. That is c A. L. E. Y Andrew. It's a big day over there for you
in Canada. Thank you for taking time out of your business schedule and joining me.
Yeah, we've got the Canadian federal election. For all of us Blue Jays fan, every game is a nailbaitor at this point, going down to the wire and Monday Night football, it's there's a lot going on.
I totally knew it today was the federal election day in Canada. Like, I don't know why you think that I wouldn't know that or that I was completely shocked when you came on and mentioned that I'm very into Canadian politics. Don't worry, It'll be fine. But yes, obviously you've got the Blue Jays. We're watching the game right now. It is currently fourteen to seven lions. A little shocking here what we've got, but we'll deal with that. That might impact how we feel about this Green Bay line
for next week. But before we get into it again, we're gonna go through every spread, every over under. We're gonna see if there's value. Now we're going to talk about whether or not we expect the line to move all that good stuff. Before we get in a couple of housekeeping things. First, let me tell you about the latest offer from bet MGM for new customers. You bet ten dollars on any event and you win one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets when you use the
code Juice one hundred. Why is the code Juice one hundred. That is from our other podcast which you should also check out with Matt Prawl, called The Daily Juice. You can find that wherever you want, so that is free money. You bet ten dollars, you win one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets regardless of the result. All of the code Juice one hundred for new users. Second, we
are doing a giveaway. It's a signed to a Tongue of Fi LOVEO giveaway that is unfortunate right now, obviously dealing with the bruise ribs, but you can still have to signed. Jersey's still going to be amazing. Entry is a very simple. Leave review for the podcast on Apple podcast or Cashbox. Then go to Betting Pros dot com slash review. That is it, And if you want three times the entries, just subscribe to our Betting Pros YouTube
channel YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. Every Sunday morning from eleven am Eastern to twelve pm Eastern, Matt Prout and I go through every single game, give our best bets and some player prop so you should go there again. That's YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. All right, let's get to the games, and let's start with the Thursday night game. Here, Andrew, the Panthers are visiting the Texans. The Texans are getting seven and a half points, and
the over under. Don't worry about it because I totally switched to both my tabs to be on the spread. The over under is for forty four.
You've got it.
I'm saying you can host the show. My bad. I'm all over the places.
You know.
We were talking right before, I had seventeen tabs open, and I was losing it anyway. So that's what we got. Do you see any value in either of these numbers?
I'd have to say. With the Panthers right now, I saw the line hit the board at seven. It's already gone to seven and a half. Panthers have looked good the first two weeks. The Sam Darnold haters, I know you're a Jets fan. I haven't been on the way.
I'm not a hater though, I mean I feel bad for him. I'm happy. I'm happy that he gets a chance to show if he can be a competent NFL quarterback. Good, good, good looking so far, you know, not that bad.
I think Matt Rule has a big and Joe Brady have a big, big part in the way he's looked so far. They're very good head coach, offensive coordinator combo. They went out there and they beat a Saints team. Well, we're gonna find out, maybe this I was choking with you the other day, We're gonna find out if this tanking Aaron Rodgers thing is real or not right, But so call it. Maybe this is the win over the Saints. Isn't that impressive if the Packers are just tanking? But no. Now,
Davis Mills in at quarterback for the Texans. It looks like the Texans. I'll give them credit to they they did look better. I made a bet before the season that they go on seventeen, except you have to sit there and look at it in your tickets for the rest of the season. But no, they've they have some veteran players there. I just don't know if they're going
to be able to do it against this line. And these are going to be publicly bet games on Thursday nights, when it's the only game on the board, the favorite will probably see some action. You can maybe if you like the dog, I'll wait a little longer until that may be closer to kickoff, and maybe there'll be a nice little middling opportunity for us here in this one.
Yeah, I don't. I don't see it getting back down to seven. I mean, do you like? I just yeah, I hit it when it was seven because I think that that's I mean, look, you never know, right, I mean, every NFL game, the worst NFL team still has premier athletes at every position. Every team plays as hard as I can. But Davis Mills is just not ready to be an NFL quarterback that obviously wasn't really the plan.
This is where we find ourselves. So I agree if you like the Panthers at this number, which is fine if you do bet it now, because if not, it's probably moving that the total. I mean, I don't know, man, like I don't really a forty four like, I have no idea if the Texans are going to be able to put up any points whatsoever. So it's just something where I'm not even getting involved at all with the total.
I would stay away. I was one of those victims last week. I was for sure that that Washington Giants game was going to go under forty and a half and then they put up almost sixties. So this early there have been some very I don't know what to say here, sobering, sobering results so far in the NFL season through two weeks. So yeah, this one, it all depends on if the Texans can score or not. I'm not sure. I would probably stay away as well.
Totally stay away from me as well. What about the Chargers visiting the Chiefs. This is a fascinating game, actually, I'm really excited to watch it. Chiefs are laying six and a half points and the total is fifty five and a half, which I like now that the totals are just like, look at just fifty five, fifty six, no big deal, Like this is just every game right now? What do you think here of these numbers.
It's a good example of what I was just saying a moment ago. Last week, everybody was foreshore that Dallas and San Diego was going to go over that total. I think it was about fifty three, and everyone was I talked to was on the over in that game, and then we get forty points scored. Now that said, there was some very questionable refereeing in that game, and there was a bunch of points taking off the board
for the Chargers. I really like the way that Justin Herbert has looked this year so far, especially finding that connection with Mike Williams. He could be a big, a big breakout star this year for the Chargers. But fifty five is a big number, and it looks like it's going to keep going up, so I'd probably wait, let
it go up. I could see myself teasing it down in a bunch of teasers too, around to that fifties, yeah, and maybe taking or sorry, teasing it up even higher gets maybe gets up to fifty seven, and I'll maybe tease it up to sixty three or something like that and take the under there.
I just I can't I imagine there's gonna be scoring here. Like frankly, I don't think I would tease it up and I because there would never there would be no number that I would feel okay about, right and angry Patrick Mahos game. By the way, I'm gonna let go of the fact that you called them San Diego. Oh you talk about by the way, I I it's remarkable, right, you and I talk about like sports all day long, whether it's betting for me, betting and fantasy and stuff
like that. And the other day I did a video and I called them the Oakland Raiders. Like I just some things you can't get out of your head. I don't know. But anyway, I just want to make that clear. We knew it. It was all for fun. Everything is good anyway. Yeah, I agree that game sort of didn't
go as expected. I'm not going near forty five and a half if anything, though, Like, there's there's not gonna be Chiefs game where it's just gonna be like pitter patter like there's gonna be a lot of scoring one way or another. So if anything I actually thought would you said originally, would tease it down, I'd be almost more apt to do. What about the spread six and a half? Do you think this ends up here? Do you think it moves one way or another? And do you like it at that number at all?
So initially I want to say yes, I like getting the Chiefs ad anything less than a touchdown, especially at home. But they're just one in eight ats in their last nine regular season games, and I don't know if that's just they're usually I get they're either in spreads that are too big and they get a little complacent at the end, or they have games like they did against the Ravens last week. It's an interesting number and I don't know how to feel about them. I hate fading
Patrick Mahomes. I admittedly was on them last night. Three and a half I thought was a great number, and I turned off the TV for a little while when they were off by about twelve or whatever they were, I thought it was over. And obviously that was not the case. Laharjacks and the other plans, but I think you'd have to lay the points with the or take the points with the Chargers. At this point, I think
Justin Herbert is almost good enough. He's obviously not Patrick Mahomes, but he can sling it just as bout as well as anybody else in the NFL. And I like a lot of these defenders on this Chargers team. If there's someone that can cover some of these guys, it's guys like Derwyn James and and Bosa is the type of guy that you can get some pressure on Mahomes, which is the key to getting to them.
Yeah, the Chargers defense is very solid, and they usually are before they eventually succumb to injuries like they do every single year. But that's the thing, like, I mean, you know, I don't think the public generally really focuses on the fact that as great as the Chiefs are, as great as Mahomes is, they're not great against the spread. That's just, you know, not really what they do. So it's six and a half. I mean, that's a great line.
That's because that's basically begging the public better to take the Chiefs at this point. But it's just I bet you it just hangs out there the whole time. I don't think you need to make a move.
You like it.
Either way, it's probably going to stay there. I don't see it getting up to seven. I don't see it really going down. So he gets where it ends up. It's probably a stay away from me, just because I'm terrified, basically, what would say? How about the Jaguars hosting the Cardinals. The Cardinals are laying seven and a half and the total is fifty two.
I really dislike the number. I dislike laying more than a touchdown with a road team. But this Jaguars team, I am. I am waiting for the Urban Meyer like I'm just done with this press conference.
Yep.
I think they are one of the most underprepared teams in the NFL. I've watched enough of the games the last two weeks to say, like, they don't look competitive. They just don't look like a competitive football team right now. And then he goes out there last week and those rumors about USC comes out, and he looks like my kid when I've caught him doing something wrong. I see the milk, there's the milk on the counter. Did you spill that milk? No? No, Like I don't. It's a
really weird situation. I think Trevor Lawrence has shown some potential for what he can be. I just I just don't know if that's gonna be able to happen under Urban Meyer. He hates giving James Robbinson the football. I'm sure the fans, the fantasy pros, the nice game all like, he is the most talented skill position player on that roster. Now Chanolt isn't getting involved. Brother, I just don't know
what they're doing there. So I'd have to I'd have to take the points with the Cardinals, particularly just also because the way the Cardinals have played through the first two weeks, particularly Kyler Murray.
Yeah, this strikes me as a game that probably the quote unquote sharp betters are going to hit the Jaguars because I remember this with the Jets last year, where you know, I try to, you know, talk to whoever I know about and they would always be like, there's value on the Jets on this number, and I would just watch them and I'd be like, there's no value on the Jets. Like I understand a system, right something A professional better completely understand why a model says this
number is too good. But there are teams like the Jets last year, and you're absolutely right with the Jaguars this year. And it's really because of the coaching staff. You're absolutely right. I mean, this is as quickly as I've ever seen basically everyone realized that a coach is completely just mentally checked out in over his head, despised by his own players. Like just everything is terrible. You can't take the Jaguars no matter what it is. I
I'll probably fire on the Cardinals. It's not getting better. It's not getting better. Get it now, yeah, get it now because it's not getting better. But man, that is ugly. But yeah, it's a big line. I mean over touchdown there. You know the books, it's very transparent what the books are doing right now, Like it's very clear when they want you to bet, where they want you to bet and stuff like that, and people will so I agree, all right, So you don't like road teams laying more
in a touchdown. You've got the Ravens then going to Detroit. Who where This is the middle of the game as I speak right now, it's a little less than a minute left in halftime and the Lions are putting up another competitive effort. The Ravens here are laying nine and the total is forty nine and a half. Now, by the time people listen to this, Andrew, it might be different because the Lions beat the Packers in this game,
maybe that Lion comes down a little bit. But for now four nine and a half with the spread of the Ravens as the road team LAYG nine. What do you think.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but take the Lions in the nine points. Like the the Ravens are coming off a huge comeback win last night, they get that even Lamar Jackson get that monkey off their back against the Chiefs. So this is a as stereotypical of a letdown spot as there could be for the Ravens, who, frankly, if not for some crazy heroics from Lamar Jackson like
last night and a fumble, they don't win that game. Yeah, they come into this game and they're one too probably, and I just I just don't the Lions are playing well. I still can't believe that. I'm sure Aaron Rodgers is doing this just to mess with us all. This is the this is the Aaron Rodgers experience for getting this year, and it's gonna be an interesting one. But you can't
deny the Lions at least being competitive. Maybe that's a that's the difference between a guy like Dan Campbell and and Urban Meyer, Like this guy is gonna die for this football team, and these players seem to put it on the line for him, even if you think his coaching strategies don't make any sense. But like the actual x's and o's of Dan Campbell can be debated pretty pretty easily, but those guys seem to play hard for him.
So it's half the battle, man, Like, it's if you want to, you know, live and die for your coach, that is half the battle. There have been plenty of coaches who aren't phenomenal, you know, x'es and o's type of guys, but who their team goes out there and
they don't give up. And again, you're right, this is a great point because you we were joking again when when we were trying to come up with a time to record this podcast and we're going to our schedules, and I was like, well, I mean we can do it during Monday night football man, Like it's okay with me, and you were like, yeah, I really want to see whether or not Rogers is actually tanking, but I'm willing to do it there. You know, I don't know, but I think the Lions really do just you know, are
they play hard and they look okay. Jared Golf looks okay, it looks fine right now at least, so whatever's going on, I agree with you as right now you got to take the points out. I'm interested to see if the Lions win this game out of curiosity so you can predict, because who knows exactly what's going to happen. If the Lions win this game, what do you think that spread goes to it's nine as we record this.
It'll probably approach seven and a half. I would say, yeah, I think that would be the number. It kind of lands on after that.
And well, I'm still saying that I expect the Packers to pull this one out, so we'll see if that happens. Let's go to another big one. It's a home team laying nine. It's the Bills laying nine to the Washington football team. And the total is pretty low here at forty six. What do you think? Uh?
I want to say over here, just because of how impressive Josh Allen has looked, that offense has looked the defense. Obviously, he threw up a shutout last week against Jacoby Brissett, right, But and now they go against Taylor Heineke. But Kinekee had his moments last week. That's against the Giants defense, which is a little different obviously. Uh. But the thing for me about why I like over I went in with obviously some expectations surrounding this Washington football team defense,
and that just hasn't come to fruition at this point. Besides, Chase, like, Chase Young is a freak and he's very good, and I expect that defensive line to be better. They've got like that all SEC frontline, all first round guys, and but they just were not getting enough pressure on Daniel Jones. Luckily, it doesn't matter because Daniel Jones will sometimes just on the run, he seems fine, but give him a clean
pocket and overthrow a guy by five yards. But I was I was shocked about how little pressure they were they were getting on him when they needed it sort of thing. And the secondary had its problems as well. Landing Collins well, a great run stuffer, still has his issues defending the deep ball. And Josh Allen's going to be throwing some deep in this one.
So yeah, I agree with you. I don't have a great feel for the spread. It seems a little high to me. I mean, Washing put up points with Taylor Heinege and the Bills. I know, again you mentioned it. They pitched a shutout in the last game, and their defense has look good, you know, look good against Pittsburgh as well. But again, I think that's more on the lack of offense of the two opposing teams, and it is
on their defense haartly. I mean, they have a great pass defense and everything, but Washington is able to move the ball and put up points. The Bills are as well. Their offense hasn't looked great right now, but we know what it can do. So at forty six, this is a number i'd hammer immediately, actually right now. Like that, I agree with you. The over is a play that I really like. I'd probably stay away from the spread at least for right now.
Ah, you agree, Yeah, I agree with that.
Browns are hosting the Bears. The Browns are a lot of seven and a half point lines right now. The Browns are seven and a half point favorites total forty six and a half.
What do you think just we have the theme tonight, it's just like, yeah, so the books clearly want us to go take those points with the Bears there it looks like. But I'm a big Justin Fields guy. He was my leave second rated quarterback coming into this draft. I think he has a very good potential. He obviously had some jitters, some jitters in that game, but I think that also comes partly because the Bears just have
been refusing to give him first team reps. And if you give him some first team reps and give him some real practice, then maybe he can maybe show what he's more capable of. I guess I saw today. I think you can correct me if I'm wrong. But Andy Dalton is okay and he will be the starter if healthy.
Is that this is correct and he's okay and that he doesn't have serious damage. But it doesn't mean that he's going to be able to start this week or anything like that. But will they came out and said he will be the starter when healthy, because why not?
Because man Hackey. I guess I don't know. The Bears played much better last week overall. I thought the Bengals had it. We're gonna win that game just because of the Bears situation. So I was impressed with the Bears defense in that game. And the Bears defense is still good, so they'll be able to keep them in this football game. So but and the Browns had trouble putting away putting away the Texans last week. I expected the Browns to cover that spread. I lined it myself at about minus
fourteen last week. So I took the Browns minus twelve and a half and I got burned on it. So this is another my mind. I think I'll probably have to do what the books are asking me and take that plus seven and a half points with the Bears.
I'll take the bait. I'll take the bait now, I mean I will. I Look, bottom line is this, like, I get that the Browns run the ball beautifully. I get that their system is great and they've got you know, all else fouls. They can go to Hooper, they can go to Ndjoku. That's totally fine. But you know, we don't know Voell Beckham Junior is going to play in this game. Jarvis Slandry's out. We already know that Baker's banged up, Like he's okay, He's gonna play, but he's
banged up, like he's not one hundred percent. And if you get Fields with a full week of basically being like you're got And here's the thing, whatever you think about Matt and Age, like, there's no way that they went into this entire our season Andrew basically refusing to have in their book somewhere buried a game plan that revolves around justin Fields right like this is happening, yeah eventually, So get it into the game plan right now. Let
him just open it up. I mean, think about what that you know, I know it didn't look at against forty nine ers, but think about what the Eagles were able to do when they first started against Atlanta. And you can, you know, build your your game plan around a running quarterback, you can do a lot. Fields is very talented. I will take the bait. I understand, like that's fine, and they seem totally comfortable with it. And
there's no surprises here. By the way, I'm sure they're baking in the fact that Beckham's not going to play. They know Landry's not going to play. They don't care. They want you to do it. You're you were taking the plunge together.
We're taking the plan. Yeah, let's do love it.
Let's go all day long. Let's go to the Colts are visiting the Titans. The Titans are currently laying five and a half. There's some fives out there vacillates between five and five and a half. The totals forty eight. We obviously have the wins situation here, where you know, we don't know whether or not it's going to play. From everything I see, it seems to suggest that it's doubtful. Apparently he's got ankle issues on both legs or I don't know both ankles, so it just seems unlikely to me.
But who knows. So what do you think right now? Five to five and a half one or the other.
I probably. I think we finally saw the Titans in the second half of that game against the Seahawks, the real Titans. They're like, oh, yeah, we've got Derreck Henry. I guess we'll start giving him the ball again. The defense is still obviously a huge issue for that team. But is it it's gonna be Jacob Easton?
Then if it's not, it will be you better believe it. Let's take the Titans now, Yeah, before that gets to six points. If you get I've already done it. I've already done it. And by the way put wentzon there, I still am taking them at five now. They played very well, better than I expected actually against the Rams. Michael Pittman Junior had a fantastic game, and look good. They got Pascal involved. It wasn't the same week one. Let me just dink and dunk to Night Hines and
Jonathan Taylor like. They got the rest of the guys involved, which they have to because you can't do that, you know, every single time. So they look good. Their defense is fine, but I look, I was all over. One of my bets last week was the Titans getting six or five and a half or whatever it was against the Seahawks, because I was very clear. I thought Week one was a lot of just COVID the issues that they had. They didn't play a lot in the preseason together. Julio
Jones wasn't acclimated yet to the offense. You give Mike Rabil a full week of practice, I think they're going to be okay. They finally it took a half, took a half, they finally got it together. I think you're going to see this again, I think they're gonna put up a lot of points. It's not a number that I that I would scream or pound the desk for necessarily if Wentz is healthy, but a I think even if he plays, he's going to be limited. And I just think that it's a recipe for a disaster for them.
So I'm taking the Titans now. I don't think the number moved. I don't think if Wentz is declared in that this number drops or anything like that to four, I think.
That he's based in there.
Yet Yep, I think so too, So I would take it there. Let's go to the Patriots at home. They are laying three to the Saints and the total sorry, let me get it is forty three, so low total here, obviously with neither team in offensive juggernaut. The Saints go from whoopen the Packers in Week one in the Aaron Rodgers tank Fest and then they just look absolutely terrible in this most recent game. What do you think here? Patriots lang three to the Saints at home.
I think I'm not a big I'm not a big Mac Jones guy, so but they they have done what they always do. The Patriots have done what they always do. They've built a game plan that is going to play to his strength, and he's an accurate quarterback who can read the field quickly, and he's he's got a high football IQ. And they're going to take advantage that. They're going to run the football with Damien Harris all game,
and I think that they'll be able to run it. Yeah, the Saints have a strong defense, but I think in this situation at home, the public will be on the Patriots in this game. So I would bet it before it goes above that key number three.
I agree with you. I would be fine because I do think that the worst case scenario is a push. But I like and the Saints have are really banged up on defense too. You know, Latimore didn't play like who knows if he's going to be back. I know it's not exactly the same because it's not really the offense. They don't have the Alpha number one wide receiver or anything like that. I will say, by the way, as I look at the various lines on Bettingbros dot Com, it is three. Every book Fox Bet has it right
now at two and a half. So if you're listening right now, check Fox. But if you have access that go hit that for sure, because I would love that total is low. Here, what do you think about that forty three? I mean, either team seems like they're going to put a point, which probably means they're going to combine for like sixty five or something like that. But what do you think realistically of forty three?
I realistically think it's a good number, and I'd probably if you put a gun in my head, i'd say go under. But then yeah, it'll probably, like you said, it'll probably end up scoring sixty points because the NFL so far this year. But I think it's a pretty
decent number. I'm probably not going to touch it. I would lean towards the under because of Mac Jones and Jamis Winston and those are the starting quarterbacks in this game, and the Patriots defense is looking better each week as well, so I'm not going to put any faith in them putting up the points. But like for me, like I said, it's a stay away.
Okay, how about the Falcons visiting the Giants? Now, the consensus line is three and a half, but as I look, it's really split down the middle between three and three and a half. I mean, bet MGM is at three, Fandle is at three. DraftKings and fox Bet are at three and a half, so if that matters to you can let me know. But the Giants are at home.
They're laying three and a half to the Falcons. The totals forty eight and a half, so that's, you know, not not the highest total on the board, but certainly some points here expected. What do you think they're.
I'll probably stay away from the side of this one because I have literally no idea how to gauge what the Giants did. They showed up on a Thursday night, or like Daniel Jones has his best game on games on Thursday nights, despite the fact that he loses. He plays well and then they lose, and then the rest of the time he's just awful. And the Falcons have just are the Falcons right now, because we can call them a dumpster fire or whatever we want to call them.
It's not good right now. But they put up some points at the end of that the end of the Bucks game, So I'm just looking at the over right here. Probably the forty eight and a half is a lot of points for some bad teams, but I still think this is probably the best play in the game in a game that I would generally stay away from for the most part. But if my favorite play would be that over forty and a half, I.
Agree with you because I do think that, you know, I think everybody kind of looked at the Falcons when they played the Eagles and they were like, oh my god, this is the worst team I've ever seen. And other than the fact that Matt Ryan threw two pick sixes at the end that really made the final score a lopsided, like they kind of hung in there wick a Bucks. Yeah, they were able to move the ball. Like I realized that the Bucks were ahead, so you know, who knows what.
They kind of laid back on defense a little bit, but they were able to move the ball. Cor Daryl Patterson was somehow very involved. Calvin Ridley caught a touchdown. I don't know where we are where Cordero Patterson is like the man, but whatever. But they will be able to put up points here for sure. The Giants will too, just because you know Daniel Jones, you know you do mention it on the run. He has a good and
you know Sterling Shepherd looks good. Galladay will get more involved Saquon Barkley with another ten days of rest here, they're designing a lot of like designed runs for Daniel Jones that look good. They'll put up points here, and their defense is not strong enough to kind of hold a team like the Falcons that can at least move the ball. They have a veteran quarterback, they have an Alpha wide receiver, they have some other playmakers with pits, even Mike Davis. So I agree with you. I'd hit
the over. I'd hit it now at forty eight and a half because I feel pretty confident that's going over.
So that'll be a public play towards the weekend. So yeah, go for it. I love it.
I don't care. I love being public this one. So Andrew, I don't know what you think about this, but Matt Matt Pearl, who does you know, Hostsared Daily podcast. He always says that when a line is between like four and a half and five and a half somewhere around there, that the books are kind of just throwing up their hands and basically being like, we don't exactly know what to do here. That's apparently what we have in this game with the Steelers are laying four and a half
points to the Bengals. Total is low forty four divisional game. Joe Burrow looked absolutely horrific for most of that game and then through two touchdown passes. So what do you think? The Steelers don't look much better? You know, realistically, So I don't know what do you do here at four and a half?
I think I take the points, I think, but I think we wait. This is if you're gonna take the points with the Bengals. This will be a game. The Steelers are the more public team, and they will get they'll get better up I think closer to kickoff. So I think we wait on the Bengals and then we take the points with them in that game, despite admittedly not knowing how this game is going to go at all.
Like your description of Joe Burrow, there was perfect and they have so many seemed like elite playmakers, but everybody everyone made fun of them at the draft because they didn't take Penny Sewell, because it doesn't matter who you're throwing to if you're on your butt like and that's the Bengals. There's still the Bengals problem so far this season, that offensive line play. And I am really Naje Harris is a terrific player for the Steelers. They have some
good young guys. It sounds like Deantay Johnson's okay as well. And I'm just serious there, which is good for them. But I'm starting to think that we're seeing the end of the Roethlisberger effectiveness as the starting NFL quarterback. Yeah.
I want nothing to do with this game, like I I honestly, because right, I mean, and you know, I get. I think you're right though, if you do like the Bengals, he can wait it because I think it's gonna go up. Because people still eat myself too, dude. I fight like at an internal bias, like the Steelers, like I really need to be like they'll be fine, Like they'll be all right, like you know, tom linill figure it out,
Like they'll be fine. I don't care that they have maybe the worst offensive line in football, Like I don't care that Ben's a thousand years old and looks like, oh my god, let me get the ball out before somebody destroys me. I don't care. I want to bet the Steelers, so I'm not going to do that. I'm moving to fight my internal bias and I'm just going to stay away completely. But I agree with you that if you like the Steelers, probably your best bet is to get on it now. If you do not, if
you like the Bengals, I would wait. So let's talk about the game that I'll probably be watching, you know, more closely than most people in the country, and that is the Broncos hosting the Jets. The Broncos are currently eleven point favorites and the total is forty one and a half. You don't see that that often, by the way, where a team is double digit favorites and the total is you know, fall out of bed and you can basically hit it. So what do you think this is? Again?
This is a Broncos team. Everybody knows. Right, you go into Denver early on in the season, that's where you know teams always run into trouble because it's a very difficult play place to play early in the season when conditioning is an up. Yet they get hit by it a little bit, they don't really know. And then you also have the Jets that are just like a dumpster fire, as we basically call them. Unsurprisingly, what do you think here at eleven and forty one and a half eleven.
So the look aheadline for this game, if you were into those kind of things, I believe it was six and a half or something like that. Yep, and the first two weeks of football have really changed that. They've all the Broncos also have Teddy two gloves. Who is Teddy covers now? I think it's something he covered the first two games this year, so that makes him something like thirty nine and I think eleven I want to say ats and in his career as a starter, it's
something around that. It's close to eighty percent cover rate, which is just absurd. But this number is so big and the total is so small. The rule. The rule is if the total is if the spread is this big and the total is that small, you almost have to take the other.
You have to right like, and this is someone who again and again, look, I actually I can be wrong. I feel fine with Zach Wilson right now. I mean, that offensive line is horrific. Like, I'm not going to blame him for all the picks. It's whatever. I like Robert stal I think long term they'll probably be okay.
This year they're going to be terrible. I don't want to do this I don't want to take a Jets team that has no offensive line that looks completely lost that nobody in the world other than like people who work for the team can name who starts in their secondary. But at this point, like forty one and a half and it's an eleven point spread, how do you not
take the Jets in this situation? Right? Like it's it's that's insane, and the thing is, who's I mean, I guess the Sharps will probably hit it, right.
I mean, but I think they already have because it started at eleven and a half and we're down to eleven now.
But vandal by the way, it's ten and a half, So look at that, you know, at some spots of ten and a half.
So to me, I think they've probably already moved it. I would say. So as the kickoff comes, then the public guys are gonna be like, oh, yeah, we're just the Jets, sock. We're gonna we'll just take the Broncos. They're two and oats, Teddy two gloves always covers, and then I don't know, maybe we can get it back up to eleven is one of those weird football numbers too, just like just like four and a half five. It's the it is the the above, the double digit version
of four and a half or five. So they don't know really what to do. I guess they're thinking the Jets could either cover or lose by thirty is the difference there. They have no idea what's gonna happen. I have no idea what's gonna happen. I'm gonna I'll wait. If you're gonna make me make it, make a bet, I'll wait because I think I think the public or it's gonna push it in the Broncos favors. So we're gonna wait and take the Jets as underdogs right before kickoff.
I'm glad I'm not doing. Ian McMillan was on early last week and he joked about the fact that he was betting every single game this year like it making publicly. I'm thankful that I don't have to do that. I think the Jets are the right side. I think if I was a professional gambler, I would basically be like, I have to take the Jets here because there's is way too much value. I'm not a professional gambler, Thankfully. I gamble, but not like this, so I will not
be dabbling in this. I would prefer just to watch, but I eleven's too many points. Give me a total? Too many points, disgusting. Okay, the Raiders are hosting the Dolphins. The Raiders are laying three and a half, and the totals forty five and a half. There are a ton of question marks in this game. Tua may play, We don't know. I'm not expecting him to play. I mean,
he's got the rib issue. You know, it's pain tolerance at this point, but you know, you know, if you've ever done anything to your ribs, like it's basically impossible to do anything, and he was carted off. You've also got the Raiders who have Derek Carr basically John Gruen basically being like I think he'll play with his ankle injury that he injured. At the very end, Josh Jacob's probably not going to play. The Raiders are off to
a fantastic start right now. They look dynamite, especially offensively. So what do you think here?
If Derek Carr was healthy and I knew he was one hundred percent, I think you just go lay the points with the Raiders as quickly as possible. Just because of all the other question marks the Dolphins have and don't I don't believe what I see. That's the other problem though with the Raiders. It's my only trepidation with them is do you believe are the Raiders good? Like
do we think they're good or not? Like? Yeah, they they came back and won that game against the Ravens, but the Ravens essentially choked that game away at the end. They should have. It's another one of those They should have got so many opportunities to put the Raiders away and just couldn't do it for some reason. And then they go out and go into Pittsburgh and win that game. Henry Ruggs finally had a good game, which was great.
I think they have two really unlike him with Brian Edwards, are two very good second year receivers that I think some most like professional fantasy guys are talking about. But I don't know if a lot of public guys are like, oh, Brian Edwards, But they have some really and with Darren Waller, there's some really good skill position players there. And the Dolphins just like two got hurt last week, but that defense didn't. Josh Allen just kind of viscerated them, So it would be the Raiders for me.
I mean, I think that once two went out like that, also just like we're well, we're well on the whole team, just kind of you know, Jacoby Brisset's a perfectly capable quarterback. Very tough to get in there when you haven't taken any reps and anything like that. Yeah, I mean, by the way, I will say this, the conceptus line is three and a half betting pros. The majority of the lines that I see right here are at three and a half, but there are a bunch of fours out there.
There's a four and a half out there at Points Bet and Fox Bets. So it's all over the place right now, and I think that understandably, books are a little uncertain of how to handle the injury concerns right now as am I. So I'm kind of buying what we're seeing from the Raiders so long as Derek Carr is healthy, because I think a lot of it is just Carr has been an underrated quarterback for a couple
of years. Here, You've got like one of the best tight ends in football in Darren Waller, and you do have the playmakers like you said, Henry Ruggs can stretch the field. Brian Edwards underrated, Hunter Renfro's underrated, he's there as well. So with or without Josh Jacobs, I agree with you. I just I feel uncertain about it, just because of obviously what we've got with all the injuries and stuff like that.
So yeah, keep your eye on it and just like kind of play a wait and see mentality.
If two is healthy. Out of curiosity, if he does play in this game, do you think that the line moves down from three and a half.
I don't think so. I don't think it moves too much from there.
And I think, by the way, like we don't you know, it's unclear because they've really only had it now for this one game with fans there. But what the home field advantage is like in Las Vegas? You know, it's a the people are crazy there, right like the fans are our raucous. You also got to go to Vegas and hang out for like three days when you're a visiting team somebody who has done that. I'm sure you have as well, or maybe not. It takes a toll on you, probably a young a young man, maybe in
your twenties, or thirties, you know, has an impact. But anyway, so I think, if anything, I probably do like the Raiders, but I'm probably staying away. This game is going to be fun to watch. The Vikings are hosting the Seahawks. The Seahawks are one and a half point favorites the spread the totals an astronomical fifty five points. What do you think.
I would side with the Seahawks just because of literally it just comes down to they have the better quarterback in this matchup, and I don't really know how else to read the rest of those teams at this point. The Vikings are a big enigma to me, and I don't know how to read them at all at this point. But so and then the Seahawks always have their issues.
The defense is looking for us again, and Russell Wilson is still running around like he always does, sometimes when he needs to, sometimes when he doesn't need to, which is the problem that some people think it is so but just because of his talent on and the connection he's had with like lock it right now and the metcalf hasn't even really gotten going yet. Carson had a decent week last week, and I think that that gives them the edge, and I'd probably bet the Seahawks here. I agree with you.
I felt really bad for the Vikings, and I was on the Vikings. It was it was kind of my best bet of the weekend, even though it made me vomit right like to have them getting four and a half and stuff like that. But you know, look, offensively, they can hang. They can hang with pretty much anyone. As long as Alvin Cook obviously was banged up. He went in and out, but as long as he's healthy, Justin Jefferson is elite. Adam Feln still has gas left
in the tank. Suddenly kJ Osborne is filling that void left when IRV Smith Junior got injured. They can really do some damage offensively, which is why the total of fifty five hi so high. It's really hard to take it over on a fifty five. I'm not taking the under,
I'll say that, but I agree with you. I do think, especially at coming off of loss like they did, never a rough loss for the Seahawks, I think they're going to put their foot on the gas and I don't think they're going to take it off in this game. So I agree with you, especially you know that the point spread is one and a half. Doesn't really matter at that point, so I will take it. Next game is going to be good. The Rams are hosting the Bucks. The Rams are laying a point, and the total is
fifty four and a half. What do you think?
I think? Yeah, you can't fade tom Brady at this point. I think that's just even though they had they let we mentioned they let Atlanta to stick around of that game, probably a little longer than the Bucks probably would have liked. But Tom Brady has nine touchdowns and no interceptions in his through two games and his age forty four season. The defense is well. Gave up some yards to the
Falcons last week. I still think that's a pretty good unit, and I'd have to Stafford's been fantastic and one of the big bets I'm kicking myself for not making early season was going to win MVP. The connection with the Cooper Cup is been has been so good. I'm kicking myself from missing that one as well. But I just don't.
I think the Bucks have a good enough offensive line to keep Aaron Donald at bay, enough to give tom Brady the time he needs to find his spots when he needs to and they just have so many ways, Like Gronk looks young, like Antonio Brown is Antonio Brown is going to go over his receiving yards total by like week eight. Uh, Like Chris Godwin and Mike, like, what are you gonna do? If there's a lot of the law problem they present a lot of problems.
I do. I do I realistically, and I think that you look the Rams as good as they've looked. They let the Bears hang around a little bit in the opening game. They eventually put it away, but they let the Colts hang around. And the Colts are a very very you know, solid football team overall, but they're not the Bucks and the Bucks right now, like real I mean it really is with Gronk, who I really didn't see this coming. I didn't really see it coming last year.
I certainly didn't see it coming this year, giving his age, giving how much abuse when you have those four options, like who cares if you can run the ball, Like it really doesn't matter if you have those four options, right, it's just going to be remarkable. I'm not going near the total again, these giant totals. Dude, I just know I can't, Like I just can't.
I can't.
I'm just gonna say, all right, let's go to Sunday night game. The forty nine Ers are currently laying three and a half points to the Packers. The totals forty seven and a half. Again, this game is going on right now. The Packers are driving. It's seventeen fourteen Lions, great games. What do you think it's still Lions. Dude's still lying. I don't have three and a half points here with the forty nine Ers at home? What do you think.
Probably the Niners like it's it's I just like we can joke. We could joke and we could joke about Aaron Rodgers all we want, but it's just like it. They're losing to the Lions right now. We're talking about that. So I like the Niners haven't been what we've probably what they've probably expected to be at this point. That they've had some some good performances last week was not
probably what they expected. But against this Packers team, I think I think it's got to be I think it's got to be the Niners.
The fact that this is happening, and again, this is great because it's live reaction and we don't know how it ends. Maybe they win by twenty five points by the time. Maybe, but the fact that this is what is happening right now at Lambeau after they were embarrassed in Week one against the Lions is mind boggling to me. It's it's crazy to the point where, unless something dramatically different happens at the end of this game, I think you do have to take the Niners. It's gross. I
don't really want to. And unless something crazy happens in this game, I don't really see the spread moving. I mean, maybe it goes to three. I guess in spots it's four at DraftKings where fours. Yeah, yeah, it's a lot of fours, So I really know if you get the three. But it's disgusting. Let's to a game that everybody wants to watch Monday night football. It is the Eagles visiting the Cowboys. Cowboys are favored by four. The total is fifty one and a half. The four spread, which is,
you know, almost the equivalent. Now quite again, there's some three and a half's out there, but the four is a little bit, like, I don't know, strikes me as a little high in this game for me, for the spread like, I'm surprised to see that four. I don't know if you are, if you agree or you think that that's about right.
I think it's about right. I don't think you can make the cow like you get it under three points and people would just hammer the Cowboys, and I just the Eagles have been Jalen Hurts has been impressive so far, and the Cowboys, while they only gave up the I'm gonna say seventeen was it twenty twenty seventeen.
Or whatever it was twenty seventeen, correct.
Yes, twenty to seventeen. They only give up seventeen. I feel like they should have given up thirty one in that game. So we can't really take anything away from that that point total there, and I believe Jalen Hurts is the type of guy that can really do some damage against that. Yeah, that Cowboys defense. It'll be interesting to see how they deploy Micah Parsons against him. But if he's been he's been getting into the backfield quite
quickly and it's been impressive to watch so far. But if he just kind of blows some assignments there, I think there could be a lot of running room for Jalen Hurts in this one, and I think he could be the difference. So I'd probably lean towards the Eagles in the and getting the points in this one. But yeah, Dak has looked great in his return, but the Dallas defense is just too iffy for me.
Yeah, I'm taking the points, and I feel.
You feel good about it. Yeah, he was very confidently.
Yeah, oh, I'm taking this points right now. I will have fired on this the second we're done with this podcast. I think that the Eagles are completely live to win this game. I mean, I think they look at against a Lana and I get that it was Atlanta and everything like that, but I think their defense is legitimate. They've got some offense. They've got some issues again on the on the line and stuff like that. They lost Graham everything like that. But remember the Cowboys have a
ton of issues. You know, a Loile Collins is out. You know, they they've just you know, and and Dak he does look good, but it's not perfect. Man, Like I feel like you watch some of those throws, there's there's not the usual zip on some of those sorts. He's still great, He's a phenomenon. The running backs are both great Pollard is in there, Zeke is in there. Mark Cooper is a little banged up by the way, which does you know not that that.
Talking about zip though I don't I think Zeke has lost some zip like he doesn't. He's still a great running back guy like like you said, but he just doesn't have that I don't know, that second gear that we've been used to him over that year.
It seems like, yeah, I'm I'm holding off for now to see how I feel about just but Pollard looks great when he does look hard.
Yeah he does.
He really does, which he's earning those touches. But for me, what I really think is that I think the Eagles defense is legitimate. I mean San Francisco certainly struggled a bit, you know against it, and obviously Atlanta, and I think that their offense is going to be able to move the ball pretty well. On this Cowboys team, I think they're going to keep it close. So I think if you're giving me more than a field goal at this point, if you dropped to three and a half, I'd be okay,
I'm going to hit it now. I don't think it's gonna drop because you're right. If it drops down too much. It's just going to be NonStop Cowboys, and I don't think the books really want that necessarily. But I'm taking the Eagles here. I feel okay about it, so that that's one of the bets. And again on Thursday. Yeah, it's a divisional game, right, it's always tight, like you know, so again one of these games that I feel pretty comfortable with my guesses, I'm going to take them on Thursday.
It's my guest I need to dive into a little bit more when I talk about my best bets. You won't be here for that, but I do hope that you will join us again later this season because I enjoy talking to you. Your inside is great, and obviously you joined us on what is I assume the biggest day in your country's history when you have this election day. But I really didn't even know what was happening.
So I see the results right now. The Liberals are leading right now, so that's justin Trudeau's party. They have sixty six seats. To the completely different electoral system here as opposed to the States, you have to win, you win your riding. So I'm in a certain riding. I am in a writing called Dartmouth Cole Harbor. I vote for the member of parliament. His name is Darren Fisher in my riding. I vote for him, and a vote
for him is essentially a vote for Trudeau. Whoever gets the most elected candidates will will form government and they need one hundred and seventy seats for a majority. And the Liberals are at sixty six, with the Conservatives at thirty six, the New Democrats at eleven, the Block Qubequa at eight, and the Green Party with one. So there's your betting pros Canada Election live updates.
I understood about half the words of those sentences, so that'll be fine. But I'm sure it's a wonderful day for you. I appreciate you taking the time during this historic day to come on here and taco love football with me. I'd love to have you back in the show. But before we get to there, tell everybody where they could find more of you and your incredible work, which, by the way, you he like. Andrew's not like just
a football guy. Andrew does everything. He's a great follower on Twitter, but tell everybody about it.
You can find me on Twitter at Covers Underscore, Kaylee, that c a l e y. I tweet Blue Jays picks every day. I admittedly I did it because I'm a diehard Blue Jays fan and I just wanted to see if that would benefit me. And that has actually gone pretty well this year.
I follow it I a lot.
Well, yes, it's done pretty well, so I'm happy with that. And college football has been has been a bit of a disaster recently, so admittedly, hopefully we bounce back with college football here this week. But yeah, I just I love putting out content for people, and whether the picks are right or wrong, the research is always there. I'm always trying to find those angles.
No, it's great. You do great stuff, honestly, over it covers everyone, it covers those great stuff. But I do enjoy you as as a follow and I have travel a lot of your Blue Jays plays and they have been really good. So keep them coming across for sur figures cross good luck man. I'm telling you as a Mets fan, no Yankees, whatever you gotta do, keep him out the playoffs. All right. So, as I mentioned, you guys know at this point we'll be back later this week.
Joe and Scott Bogman will be doing a college football breakdown and then I'll be back on Thursday doing our Best Bets with the guests from Alex kloj Over from the Action Network. So again, enjoy the rest of your week. We're gonna go watch the end of this incredible football game where the Packers are just taking the lead, Like, who the heck knows what's happening? Man. Until then, take it ease. You can enjoy the rest of your week.