Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Eighty.
Week one is almost in the books.
We still have one game left tonight, but it is already time to start looking ahead at the lines for week two to find out if there is any value, if we expect any movement, all that good stuff. To do that with me is Ian McMillan from bet Sided. He's on Twitter at Ian mac betts. And that's Ai and Ian. Thank you for joining me.
How you doing.
I'm doing well, man, Thanks for having me.
Did you have a good beat on week one?
Because I felt like there were some games that I saw really clearly in others I was just way off on.
I did very well in Week one. I went twelve and three. I bet on every single game. I had two hundred and seventy two games this year. I'm betting on every single one. I did the same thing last season, and I'm on pace now to have easily my best week I've ever had, so twelve and three heading into Monday night football, so I've been lucky.
How did all right? First of all, for the record. Who do you have tonight?
I got the Raiders to cover tonight?
Okay, is it four or four and a half when you had it?
I think I have it at four.
Okay. How did you do last year in the content? In your betting every game?
I finished profitable, which is my goal because obviously, if you're betting on every single game for an entire NFL season, then that was kind of my goal was just to kind of finish in the black. So I don't remember my exact record, but I finished around up five and a half units. I think it was all spreads and totals, and then once a week I do one money line underdog a week as well.
So I love it all right, well, well done, well good.
Then let's provide value to the people listening here before we get into it. First, I can tell you about an offer that we have from bet MGM for new customers. Do you bet ten dollars on any event that you want, you automatically win one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets when you use the code Juice one hundred. We have a podcast here at bettingpros dot com called The Daily Juice. That's where the juice comes from. Again, the
code is juice one hundred, so that's free money. Just to make that as clear as humanly possible, you bet ten dollars, you win one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets, regardless of the outcome.
For new customers.
Over at BETMGM again use the code juice one hundred second. Let me remind you of our giveaway we are giving away assigned to a tongue of Iiloa Jersey.
Entry is really simple.
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We also have a live stream from eleven am to twelve pm on Sunday mornings Eastern where we break down the entire slate and I give out my player prompts. All right, Ian, better of every NFL game? Are you ready for an early look at Week two?
Lines.
Absolutely very exciting. Let's get into it.
I'm so excited. I love it.
Okay, So I'm going to be using the consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com that looks at a bunch of different books, but obviously we will look around and see whether or not any individual book is offering anything that might be a little more favorable or anything like that. So let's start with the Thursday night game, and that is the Giants of visiting Washington and taking on the
Washington football team. Consensus line right now Betting Pros is Washington laying three and a half points and the over under a minuscule forty one points.
How do you see this game?
I mean, we're starting off right in Week two with just a classic Thursday night football game between two teams that just stinks. So, I mean that's a pretty low total. My initial thought would have been to go with the under, but I think I'm going to back the Giants on this one. I think they had kind of a bad showing in Week one. Now Washington that was actually on Washington. That was one of the few picks I lost last week. So maybe I'm just a little bit of an anti
Washington buyas. I'm a little mad at them a little bit, but I think the Giants are better than what they showed in Week one. My issue with the Giants is they just don't have an offensive line. I hate that these teams that go up and pick up all these like wide receivers and these finesse positions and don't build the offensive line. So their offensive line is probably gonna
have issues against his Washington defensive line. But I don't know, man, I'm trying not to overreact to Week one results where the Giants looked really bad. I think that's what week two is really all about, trying not to overreact to week one results. So I'm probably gonna take a lot of underdogs in week two. So I'm gonna start off with the Giants on Thursday night.
Yeah, it's really tough.
Out of curiosity, do you what do you think the impact is of the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick obviously suffered that hip this location, he's out, it's gonna be Taylor Heineke.
Do you think that helps the over helps the under or.
What I mean, it certainly has to help the under I mean, if there's one thing about Fitzpatrick that he can do, and that's that's throw touchdowns. Now, sometimes he throwze five interceptions to the five touchdowns, but usually those interceptions then turn into points for the other team, which then helped the over as well. So I mean, I would guess this total would be would be significantly higher, probably five or six points higher if Fitzpatrick was playing out.
You think it may it moved that much.
See, and this is actually I wish I could have checked it out before we recorded. I actually don't know if it moved. Do you ever do you take out like a look aheadline or when you make your bets on every game? Do you wait until basically you have all the information possible.
Yeah, well, I place my bets because so I record my podcast, the Bacon Bets Podcast Wednesday night. So right before I record, that's when I lock in my bettcha because that I know, I'm kind of at the mercy of those Wednesday Night lines, So I do. I try not to look too far ahead, but I did not see what the total was on the look aheadlines. Would have been.
Interesting though, right, And again, realistically that's that's not a huge deal necessarily because I don't really finalize it until obviously the end of the previous week. But interesting because I don't I don't I get that fits helps it leans towards the over, But I think that big a move. That'd be a pretty big move. Heine gets very capable. I think for me, I see it sort of the
way you do. I mean the under obviously hitting the Broncos in the Broncos Giants game, but I don't really think I could go anywhere near the total in this game. But with the spread, if you're giving me the hook with the extra five, you know, half a point, I'm.
Probably taking it.
There are threes out there, by the way I FanDuel, there's threes so that I don't really like. But if you give me the hook, I probably will go there. How about the absolutely dominant Houston Texans going to Cleveland to take on the Browns. The Browns are laying a minuscule twelve and a half points.
The over under is forty eight. What do you think?
This one's tough? Man, These big Week two spreads and my biggest issue, and I'm probably gonna go with the Browns here. I haven't finalized it yet, even though it's a big spread and my big thing is the Texans run defense last year one of the worst run defense. I think it might have been the worst. I think them in the Bengals were the two worst run defenses in the NFL last year. And then we obviously know that's exactly what the Cleveland Browns do really well is
just pound the rock. I think the Browns are the best offensive line in the NFL. I think Nick Chubb might be the best running back in the NFL. I would say he is. I would go on the limb and say Nick Chubb is. I know a lot of people would always say Derrick Henry Christian McCaffrey. I love Nick Chubb. I think he's gonna have a big year. Big spread though, man, and I hate taking double digit favorites in the NFL, but and there's a couple of them this week, I might have to, So right now
I'm gonna lean Browns. But it's this one's tough, man, This one's tough because the thing about the Texans they have veterans, they have guys who kind of know the sport. It's not a young team, which isn't good for them long term. But they're gonna be able to win a couple of games this year. I think because of that veteran presence on that team, so tough one. I'm gonna take the.
Browns well Tarat Taylor.
I mean, he's a professional quarterback, right, He's going to keep them stther than there. Let me ask you something, man, Am I crazy or I don't remember? Up until three years ago, maybe seeing just these giant line I mean, twelve and a half's not insane, like not like when we're getting like the seventeen or eighteen point lines right with like the Patriots stuff. But to see these lines just routinely, like in the double digits all the day long, is it me?
Or do we see that way more frequently these days?
Yeah? I think we are. I mean they're starting to us look like college football lines a little, right, But yeah, I think we are. I don't know if it's just actually disparity in kind of talent, or if it's just because the public is getting so much more involved in sports betting, and I think that might have something to do with it that. Obviously, the public betters are usually a little bit square, so when it's a big mismatch, they just assume that the better team is gonna win
by a ton of points. But not necessarily the case. I mean, look at this Kansas City Chiefs last season, big favorites in almost every single game. A lot of them were like double digit close to double jit digit. In the regular season. They finished seven to nine against the spread. So even though there's mismatches, doesn't mean the team's gonna win by a lot.
Yeah, Mike, with the last game, I don't really see like a ton of value here that I'm dying to lock in a line or anything before we move later in the week.
This is there just tough.
Honestly, Let's go to the Patriots visiting the Jets. Patriots are favored by five and a half points and the total is forty two and a half.
What do you think, Oh, I think I got to go with the under on that one. I was on the under and the Jets Panthers game this past week, I just don't. I mean, I don't really believe in anything of the Jets offense. The other game I was on the under as well was the Patriots, and the Patriots and Dolphins last week, both those under his cash as well. I think both teams do have slightly better
defenses than offenses, especially the case with the Patriots. I just don't think they have quite enough offense weapons to put up a ton of points. I'm surprised. I'm actually surprised this total is not in the thirties, like thirty eight to thirty nine. So I think you said it was forty two and a half. I'm probably gonna end up taking the under it no one.
What's funny is there are books out there at forty three and a half. Forty two and a half is the consensus line. But you know, I'm in agreement with you. I mean, I think the bottom line is that the Jets have a significant weakness in their defense, and it is the secondary. But that's not really necessarily what the Patriots are built to exploit, right, I mean, you're gonna have Nelson Agalo or you're gonna have Jacobe Myers, but they're not the type of guys who are really just
gonna destroy you who you can pick on them. They are gonna want to play conservative, They're gonna want to lean on their defense.
And we saw the Jets.
Zach Wilson hung in there and played pretty well in the second half, but their offensive line is decimated. Makai Becktin's now out for several weeks. I'm with you. I'm with you if you can get a forty three and a half, Like there are randomly kind of sitting out there and it's forty three at Fox Bed and at points bet it's forty three. I agree with you. I would lock that in because I do not expect it to necessarily move down. Now, this one's a little tough
because we have not seen the Raiders play. But the Steelers right now are home and they are laying six and a half to the Raiders, and the total is not a big deal. I totally messed up my sheet right now. But start with the spread. I'll get you the total in the second six and a half? Did I say six and a half? Sorry, Steelers at home against the Raiders.
Yeah.
I think I would probably back the Raiders, just like am tonight. I mean, I think the thing with the Raiders is just people think they're worse than what they are they're actually I don't think they're that bad of a team really, especially their offense. They were like something like sixth or seventh in offensive yards per game last season, around the same and third down conversion percentage, which I
value quite a bit when handicapping my dame. Their defense is obviously horrific, but I think the Steelers offense is horrific. So if the Steelers are getting that many or the sort of the Raiders are getting that many points, I'm gonna definitely back them on the spread consist year. Obviously, the Steelers defense is arguably the top unit in the NFL, but I don't think the Raiders are as bad as
a lot of people think. Now, if someone's watching this after Monday night, I might look stupid because who knows what's gonna happen in this game. So in my defense, we haven't seen the Raiders yet this season, but I think they're better than They're not a great team. They're not a good team, but I think they're better than what a lot of people give them credit for.
I'm coming with you on the stupid train, then, because I agree with you, I really do. I think the Raiders offensive line is subpar, but other than that.
It's a pretty decent team.
I mean, Derek Carr is kind of quietly a pretty okay decent quarterback in the league. Darren Efficient, thank you very much. That's a nice way to put it. Darren Waller is a superstar. Obviously, they have the two running backs with Josh Jacobs, who again as we record this has an illness sounds like you will play tonight, but also Kenyan Drake. The receivers are young but emerging with Rugs and Brian Edwards.
So that's there. But you're right, the real thing is the Steelers. I mean, their.
Offensive line looked abismo, as we kind of expected coming into that game against the Bills. They really struggle to kind of have a cohesive offensive philosophy. So I agree, if you're getting that points, what about the total, which I have finally found, Ian, don't worry.
The consentus line is actually forty eight.
But when I'm looking at the various books, you've got mostly a big disparity here, more than I usually see bet MGM for example, it's forty seven and a half. Fandele it's forty nine and a half. So like the consensus is forty eight in between. So do you think there's if you're like, let's say you have access to one of those books, do you find one of those enticing one way or another?
Yeah, I'd be taking the under for sure. If it's going to be in the high forties. I mean, like I kind of said the ste I mean, the Steelers just stop the Buffalo Bills offense, which we think is still one of the best offenses in the NFL. And then you got the Steelers offense which can't move the ball at all. I mean they needed a block punt for a touchdown to win that game. So yeah, I mean, I'm some shocked. As in the high forties, I'd be taking the under in that for sure.
I agree with you, and I think this is something where you probably want to lock it in out, especially if you're like, look, I'm in New Hampshire.
The only book we have access to his DraftKings, it's at forty nine.
I will be locking it in ordinarily, just because I respect you so much, and I'm not going to do it while we're podcasting right now, but ordinarily for guests that I think lesser of, I would do it actually right now, but I want, all right, let's go to the Bengals visiting the Bears. The Bears here are laying three points in our consensus line, and the over under is forty five.
Any value in either of those numbers, that's tough.
I think I think that line set right. I mean, I'm kind of a Bears hater, to be honest. I veta against them quite often last season, especially right after they got off of that like five and one start or whatever it was. So I think I would have to back the Bengals here. Also, I was impressed by what I saw from the Bengals in Week one. That was one of the bets that I lost. I was on the Vikings. I thought the Vikings were going to
run away with that. I was nervous for Joe Burrow coming off that the knee injury because there were some reports that he wasn't quite feeling comfortable in training camp. But he looked great. He you know, faced the pressure. He threw a lot of great footballs. I think I'm going to back the Bengals in that one. But that line seems just about right. That one. That one's that one's gonna be one. I'm gonna have to dive into
a little bit more. But kind of when you're I mean, when you're betting on every single NFL game, you're not gonna have a strong feel one or the.
Other and everything. So it's the best.
I love that you're like, well, I'm gonna I'm gonna have to bet this one, so I'll let you know how I feel about it.
For me, I completely agree with you.
I think both the total and the spread are just right there at a point where that you don't want to bet this game. You have to because it's in your contract. But still I think that it's a game that I want to avoid. Although I will say I was really impressed with the Bengals and Burrow. You know, I'm obviously also a fantasy guy and I do projections.
I was very nervous about Joe Burrow and what he would look like early in the season, for the mental part of it, not the physical parts, and like he'd fully recovered, but it's very difficult when.
You have that injury.
And that's really what you hearing in camp was that he was struggling the mental part of it, and he hung. I think he was sacked five times. You wouldn't have known it. He didn't look jumpy in the pocket. He uncorked some great throws, and Jamar Chase another guy missing football for a year. Everybody was kind of like, oh no, I'm worried. He looked fantastic too, So I'm definitely more optimistic on the team overall. At the same time, three
points right there is the correct spread. The Rams are visiting the Colts, the Rams are favored by four, and the total is forty seven and a half Rams.
I already was high on the Rams heading into this season, and then they did nothing but make me even more confident in them against the Bears there on Sunday night. Matthew Stafford looks like, at least through one week, he looks like he's living up to people's expectations. The defense is still a dominant unit, maybe not quite as good as the defense last year. But then the complete opposite was the case for the Colts. Curson Wentz didn't impress
me whatsoever. Colts offense didn't necessarily look great, didn't look explosive. Yeah, I'm definitely that's definitely a good spot for the Rams. I think where'd you say that game? Was? That? Is that in?
It's in Indianapolis, in Indianapolis.
Yeah, so obviously otherwise, yeah, you would expect it to be yeah, closer to touch on. I agree with you, by the way. So I do think the Cults are going to play a little bit better here. I mean, remember they had such little time to really practice and work. But they really have nothing offensively right now. I mean the receivers. I like Michael Pittman Jr. I like Zach Paskal.
They're certainly not going to be able to do anything against this this defense here with the cornerbacks, and then you just are you know, Jon Taylor is very good, but Niam Hines like it's gimmicky a little bit with this offense. And I think you're going to get some value right near now early on the RAMS. I think you had value in week one as well, which I think most better saw. That's why you saw the spread rise overall. What about the total? Any feelings on it?
It is forty seven and a half. I would probably lean the under on that one.
Generally in totals, I'm usually an under guy as it is because I always feel like the points that the totals are point or two higher than they normally would because the public loves betting on overs. I mean who who the unders not enjoy.
Whoa something right as anything?
Not a fun bet to make, So usually that one, especially where it's close, I would lean the under. And yeah, I don't know. Obviously the RAMS defense is going to be one of the best in the unit and one of the best units in the NFL. It's gonna be hard for me to take an over in a Rams game this year.
But yeah, I'm I agree with you. I agree with you for sure, But for me, it's a little bit of a stay away just because I don't know. I mean, I could see the Colt Stephens is not bad, but you saw Russell Wilson, like I could see the Rams by themselves putting up, you know whatever, a thirty spot if they absolutely had to.
Bills visiting the Dolphins.
The Bills are laying three and a half points and the total is forty eight and a half.
What do you think, UH gonna take the Bills. This is a spot where, like I said earlier, I'm trying not to react a week overreact to Week one. The Bills didn't look great, especially offensively, but I think they are still the team that we saw last year. And the interesting thing to think about the Miami Dolphins, and they were the best spread team last year, but were they eleven and five I think in the regular season against the spread? And I was on the wrong side
the large majority of them. And excuse me, they had the same kind of oat come in Week one where they want and cover the spread. But if you look at their defensive numbers, they're giving up yards. But what's happening is they're getting timely turnovers at the perfect time, and that that's what their whole kind of motive was. Last year they led the league in takeaways and turnovers. In my opinion, at least, there is at least some degree of luck to it. It's not all skill. You
need the running back to fumble the ball. You need the quarterback to you know, miss rita route or coverage and throw a bad ball. So if they don't keep getting these these kind of takeaways, the Dolphins shouldn't be as good as what they are, especially obviously their defense. But they keep getting these takeaways. So it's funny to see that exact same thing happen in Week one that
we saw all season last year in the Dolphins. So I going to continue fading the Dolphins because, like I said, I just think takeaways have a little bit of an element of luck, and that defense is giving up yards, the offense is and getting a ton of yards, and I think the Bills are gonna have a big bounce back week, so I'm gonna go with them.
Yeah, I think this is really a Bills statement game at this one, because I think right it has to, because there are question marks about them because Josh Allen.
You know, in Fantasy especially.
We talk about that, like everybody waits for Josh Allen to turn back into like the guy who the Bills draft, and you're like, just this inaccurate guy, don't know what we saw last year. It's eventually things are gonna come back. That's not gonna happen. Josh Allen is great. The system that they will put in together is great. They're gonna be a fantastic team, including this year. There are some threes out there. There's actually one two and a half out there, which I love. But even with the hook,
I'm totally fine with that. I'm not really going near the spread. It's at forty eight and a half. That strikes me as about right for something like that, you know, but I do agree with you that even on the road, I'm taking the Bills even if you gotta lay the hook.
How about the Saints visiting the Panthers.
The Saints are three and a half point favorites, and I will get you the total in like two seconds. How about the three and a half point favorites for the Saints.
God to take the Saints man. Jameis Winston is my preseason bet to win MVP, and he proved proved me right a little bit there in Week one. Now, he didn't throw over a ton of yards. He's what like one hundred and fifty six yards, but somebody still had five touchdown passes, which is kind of insane. But I'm not. I'm I'm an anti Sam Donald guy. I was. I don't understand why the Panthers opted for Sam Donald over
over Teddy Bridgewater. I thought, I mean, look just look at their completion percentage in their career and we'll get to Teddy Bridgewater when we talk about the Broncos. But not a believer in Sam Donald, it's it's gonna be tough for me to ever bet on him. I'm gonna take the Saints in this one. I love how Jamis Winston looked. He didn't throw any in any interceptions and that's that's his key thing. So give me the Saints in that one.
I technically threw an interception that was negated by a nonsense penalty, but yes, he looked good.
The offense look good, I know, officially not I'm just teasing you.
As a Jets fan, there is no greater fader of Sam Darnold than myself.
And again, the one non.
Totals bet that I gave out on our show on Thursday was that I like the Jets getting five and a half.
Now, that was a sweat, a little.
Bit of a lucky cover, but whatever they covered. I do not believe in this Panthers team whatsoever. I do absolutely believe.
In the Saints team.
Now.
They are suffering from a few injuries here on the defensive side of the ball, so that is something that could mess around with it. But I don't really see these two teams as in the same class right now. Just given what we saw in that game against the very good Packers team, I don't think the Packers are done. I mean that defense. Again, they have injuries, but they're legitimate. And if you're gonna have that defense going up against Sam Darnald, especially off his high of his revenge game win,
I like that. I also kind of lean towards the over at forty four and a half. It's a pretty low total, not crazy low or anything like that. But I do think that the Saints are going to be able to score pretty easily on the Panthers, like not at will, but certainly they'll be able to put up points.
And I think they're just enough there.
I think the Panthers probably only need to put up you know, maybe two touchdowns, will probably find their way into it, and I think the Saints may go up ahead and sort of lead it to like the back door over. So for me, I kind of like the over under forty four and a half the over, but I don't feel like it's something you need to rush out and bet you know, I don't expect that line to move all that much, you know what I'm saying.
And I will say one other thing about the Saints. Nobody talks about the Saints, at least in this offseas. Nobody really talk about how good their defense was, like they I think they were a third in scoring last year. The defense was, but that's not a thing that's that's ever really brought up. And then you saw that defense against the Packers there in Week one, So Saints continue to be underrated.
I think, yep, all right, you mentioned the Broncos. Let's go to them. They are visiting the Jaguars.
The Jaguars are getting six points from the Broncos here and the total is forty five and a half.
What do you think?
I listen, I'm not a big trends guy when it comes to, oh, this team's you know, ten and two against the spread in this spot. But there's one trend that I'm obsessed with that I have to continue betting on, and it is Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy covers, man. I don't have is against the spread record in front of me, but I think it was seventy two percent or seventy five percent hitting in the season. Then he just covered
in Week one. He's a sports betters. He should be in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame if that ever exists. He needs to be eased that whole room dedicated to himself. So, like I said, I'm not usually big trends guy, more of a stats guy, but I'm gonna keep riding my guy, Teddy Bridgewater. Man, I'll take the Broncos.
And I think if you do like him, you should probably bet him now because I think that if anything, this spread rises, right, like, if anything, the public is like, I'm not betting on the Jaguars, like give you the Broncos, like Teddy whatever, and it rises closer to a touchdown, So I think you do want it now when it's blows touch on, You're not going to miss out on anything if you bet it. It's not like it's going to drop to you know, for or anything like that,
So you're not missing anything by doing it now. Any any lean at all on the total forty five and a half probably under.
I mean Trevor Lawrence struggled against the Texans defense, which is supposed to be one of the worst defense in the NFL, and now he's going up against a very very good, probably underrated defense in the Broncos. And the Broncos offense, as much as I like Teddy Bridgewater, is not exactly an explosive, high scoring offense. It's efficient. He doesn't really turn the ball over. So yeah, I would probably go under on that total for sure, all right.
Next one, both teams winning in Week one, the forty nine Ers visiting the Eagles. The forty nine Ers are favored by three and a half points and the total is fifty. Obviously, the forty nine Ers suffered a few injuries with Brett, and they've got Mostart who's now going to be out eight weeks, so they're a little banged up here. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was super impressive obviously in that opening win.
What do you think?
Yeah, heading in the season, I thought Jalen Hurts is one of the more underrated quarterbacks. I didn't think he really got a fair shot. Last year started late when the team had basically already given up on the season. They're getting three and a half points in the spot. And what happened with the forty nine Ers defense. This is supposed to be one of the best defenses in the NFL and they just allowed the Detroit Lions, led by Jared Goff to put up like four hundred and
thirty yards against them. What's going on in the forty nine Ers defense? Now? To be fair, the majority of the points and the arrows came late in the game when basically the game was at least supposed to be over or felt like it was over. So maybe they are as good as they're supposed to be. But I'll take the Eagles getting three and a half points at home.
It's over. It's just over that magic number of three that obviously, if you're betting on football, you know that I'll take the home team in the points, so.
It's all three and a half.
I mean, I like a home dog just generally that piques my interest a little bit. But I think you might get a little bit of the Eagles being undervalued early in the season. I think, you know, betters are probably willing maybe books too, as books look to sharpen their their models and their lines.
Like I don't think they fully figured out exactly.
And you know, I joked about it with our last gut Sewan because were both joking about how we had Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year tickets at like thirty five to one or forty to one. And part of it was they designed this entire offense. They had the whole offseason to design an offense. Rumors aside about the Shawn Watson around Jalen Hurts and his skill set. He has some playmakers and some receivers right now, because again he has Devonte Smith, who's really good. Rager, Jalen Rager
looks pretty good. You've got Dallas Goddard still there. The offensive line is healthy. It's going to make a big difference. And again the forty nine are suffered a bunch of injuries. If you're giving me the hook with the team at home, I am more than.
Willing to take it.
How about is another big spread that we talked about. The Bucks are laying twelve and a half at home to the Falcons.
The totals fifty two.
I'm a Falcons fan, man, they just they're bad. They're so bad, man, I have to take the Buccaneers in this spot. Man, I was looking obviously as a Falcons fan when no matter how a game goes on, that that's the game where I'm going to be focused on more afterwards as far as looking at what happened in that game went right, what went wrong? Nothing went right
for the Falcons. They have an offensive lineman I'm blanking on the name, but then an offensive lineman who would like a PFF ranking of like one point nine to eight or something like that, which is Matt Ryan. Apparently wasn't responsible for any of the hits that he took or any sacks that he took. Their offensive line is terrible, and when he looked on the defense side, they have one good cornerback in aj Terrell. The other guy just stinks, and the Eagles targeted in the whole game, that's where
they got the large majority of the yards. So if Jalen Hurts can pick apart your defense, what is Tom Brady gonna do? And the Super Bowl defending champion Damn Bay Buccaneers. So I mean, if the Falcons can't score a touchdown on the Eagles, what are they going to do against this Buccaneers? If they can't stop Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, what are they going to do against the Buccaneers? Once again, I hate betting big favorites in the NFL, especially when it comes to divisional opponents, because
they typically know we should be a little bit better. Yep, But I can't bettle my Falcons. Man. They might be the worst team in the NFL this year.
This was one of the bigger lines that I'm okay with like you, because I agree there's not that you can't watch that game, the Eagles against the Falcons and think that anything remotely optimistic about what we saw on either side of the ball.
You're absolutely right.
Now you've got the Bucks, they're coming off, they're rested, right, They've got.
The Mini Bay here.
The opening day, you know what they can do offensively, like whatever they want, and their defense was probably a little pissed off because they allowed the Cowboys to kind of Dak Prescott to throw for over four hundred yards.
So I'm in agreement with you. I would take this at twelve and a half right now.
Again, I don't think you have any real chance of losing value if you bet it. Now, I think of anything you could lose value if you don't bet it. The total at fifty two, I'm probably just staying away from because I have no sense of if the Falcons are going to be able to score at all or not, or whether we saw like, oh god, they're going to be a team that's going to put up, you know, six ten points a game. So for me, I'm staying away from the total personally.
But themselves, Bucks might score, that's true for themselves.
You want over, then you want to go over with yeah?
Yeah, all right, there we go.
Go for the over. Right, there be a public root for their root for scoring.
All right, Let's go to the Vikings visiting the Cardinals. The Cardinals are laying four and a half points, and the total is at fifty one. Obviously incredibly impressive opening day performance by the car Knows, who looked like world beaters both offensively and defensively. You mentioned the Vikings big disappointment expected them to be able to beat the Bengals.
They didn't. But what do you think here? Fifty one for the total and four and a half is the spread.
This one's a tough one. So the Cardinals were actually my money line bet in week one, so I cashed on them. But then the Vikings were one of my favorite picks, if not like a top three favorite pick for me in Week one because I thought the Vikings were gonna have a big bounce back season. They had a lot of injuries on defense last year. I thought I was expecting so much more, especially with Dalvin Cooks. And now I'm kind of torn, like do I stick to that take? Like do I'm trying not to overreact
to week one? But the Vikings did not really look great in Week one, so this might be the toughest game on the board to bet for me this week. I think I'm just going to I think I'm gonna plug my nose and take the Vikings in the points here. I think I'm going to try not to overreact to that, you know, subpower performance against the Bengals, maybe the Cardinals.
I listen, I what faded the car or I faded the Titans with the Cardinals money line because I think the Titans are way worse than what the record was last year. They had like a bottom three, bottom four defense. I do think the Vikings defense is better than Titans. Hopefully they can slow down the Cardinals offense a little bit. I hate to bet, but I'm thinking to plug my nose and take the Vikings in the points.
So I'm not getting anywhere near to this game, but I will say that if I did. But if I did, I do think that this strikes me as something where the public is just going to be all over the Cardinals because of what.
We saw, and the sharp money is going to flood.
In on the Vikings because they know that the Vikings aren't as bad as what we saw last week and the Cardinals aren't as good.
And again, the big thing we didn't nobody really.
Talked about this, at least I didn't hear about it, and I didn't really think about it, especially from a betting or fantasy perspective, is just how little time the Titans had to become a cohesive unit given the COVID stuff that they dealt with, like a real legit outbreak, their coach, their quarterback, they had tons of stuff. I just feel like that game, I'm throwing it entirely out in my mind for the Titan.
But Cardinals did look good.
And it takes some major, you know, strength in your stomach to be able to bet on the Vikings. But I do agree if I were going to place a bet on this game, which I am not, I do think that the Vikings are probably sid And again, this is something where I think you don't have to rush in. I do see a couple of three and a halfs out there. My guess is it's gonna climb, because again I think you're going to see a lot of public money at that very least come in on the Cardinals.
How about the Chargers laying three to the Cowboys in Los Angeles with a total just fifty five, just fifty five for the total? What do you think here that that line?
Yeah, the total actually moved quick. I think it opened up like fifty one or fifty two. I think it's fifty too. It opened up so already shot up another tough game, man, because these the Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL and might maybe the worst defense in the NFL. So, like, are either like, is the defense gonna be all step up at all in this game? Or is the offense going to take a step back at all in this game? I think I'm going to take the Cowboys in this one. I
believe in Dak Prescott. Iiman he torched that that that Buccaneers defense, which is a very good defensive unit. Last week, I didn't love what I saw from the Chargers offense, but obviously they're going up against the Washington defense that's that's one of the best in the league. Another tough game to call. I'll take the Cowboys.
So but tough.
Do you think this is where the line ends up at three or do you think it moves one way or the other throughout the week.
I don't think there's gonna be much movement. I agree, at least my My general feeling right now is this is one that people are kind of torn on. They're a little split. And when you get that, I mean, it's not like the Cardinals game where I where where we imagine a ton of money is gonna come in on the Cardinals. I think people are kind of split because I don't think everyone really knows what to do with the Cowboys yet either.
Yeah, I agree. I think it's probably gonna land here at three. I think you're gonna get money on both sides. And with the total, Ian, I mean, it's fifty five, but I can't take the under on it. Like I recognize how insane that total is. I completely understand that's a banana's total, and I can't. I can't go. I'm not gonna take the over. I think I'm just staying away from the total.
Yeah, I don't think I can. Yeah, I can't take it undering a Cowboys game. I'm not subjecting myself to that kind of torture. That is fair.
I like it. I like it.
Seahawks at Homeling five and a half to the Titans, who are obviously coming off a little bit of a lacking and the total at fifty four, what do you think?
Yeah, Seahawks, I'm gonna continue to fade the Titans, Like I said, they were at eleven to five team last year. I think it's to be eleven and five with so if I'm correct, They're twenty eight or twenty ninth in opponent yards per game last season. The only teams that were worse were the Lions, Jaguars, and Texans, and that's not good. I don't know how a team can get to eleven and five with that kind of defense. And
they did make some improvements in the offseason. I don't think it was enough, though, Especially their passing defense is not good. We saw what Kyler Murray did through the air last week, and now you got Russell Wilson against them, so I mean, good luck with that. So I'm going to take the Seahawks in this one. I'm going to keep fading the Titans until I think the lines are set at a more appropriate number for how I kind of evaluate them, and right now they shouldn't like I would.
I would set the Seahawks probably at six points right now.
Okay, Yeah, I don't want it. I just want to stay away from this one. I see everything you're saying. I'm not fading the Titans nearly as much as you are. I understand why you are, and I think the Seahawks are going to do what they did last year, which has come out really hot, especially offensively before they kind of turtle up a little bit because of they have one bad game or something like that.
But still, I could also see.
A scenario where the Titans and Mike Rabel, who I respect a ton as a coach, kind of lays into them and they come out much sharper here. The total also, like, I'd love to go over on this because I think there's gonna be a ton of scoring here. I don't think the Seahawks defense is good enough to shut down the Titans. With an extra week here to get better, and I think the Seahawks can pretty much score it will. But at fifty four, man, I just don't. I don't
think I can go near it. It's not a total that I want to go near.
How about you?
Yeah, I think I would. I think I would take the under. Obviously, we know the Titans love to run the ball, and when you run the ball, I mean obviously we all know the clock keeps going less time on the clock, less time for points. That's tough, Yeah, because of the Titans defense is it's kind of tough to bet on under with the Titans defense, But I think I'd go.
Under, all right, Chiefs visiting the Ravens the game we all deserve. Again, we have not seen the Ravens yet. Hopefully they look like what we expected them to look. They've dealt with several injuries coming in. But as of right now, the Chiefs are favored by three and the total is at fifty five and a half. These totals man just nonsensical almost. By the way, one of my favorite memories, I think from last year is when the
Ravens were favored against the Chiefs. I'm pretty sure that was last year, and I remember taking Patrick Mahomes as a dog and just feeling like it was like the dumbest, like goofy. It's like when you, like, you know, win the lottery or something like that. It was so ridiculous. Here not a dog obviously laying three in Baltimore.
What do you think?
Yeah, once again, a little tough because we haven't seen the Ravens yet. But I mean, got to take the Chiefs, man, I mean, I say, got to take the Chiefs. But then again, I mean the Chiefs have not been good covering the spread. They didn't cover the spread in week when either but I was on the Browns. But anytime you can get the Chiefs at this low of a number.
I think you have to take them. Where you want to avoid the Chiefs is when you get up closer to a touchdown because it's tough to win football games by more than a single score. But I think the Ravens might regress a little bit this year. I'm very interesting to see and hopefully we get a little bit of a sense of it tonight. What Lamar Jackson is going to be like because he took a little bit of a step back last year. So is he going to return to MVP form or is he going to
look more like he did last year? So this is one that's it's very tough to call without seeing one of the two teams involved. Like I feel like I have a better sense of the Raiders even though I haven't seen them this year. Where the Ravens, I really want to see them, get a sense for them. And also, obviously we all know how banged up their backfield is. I had my phone on the other day. I thought I might get a call from the Ravens to get something because there's.
No don't worry get up there.
So I got it back the Chiefs and I would guess. My guess would be I mean, unless the Ravens blow up the Raiders tonight. Now I might look stupid in hindsight saying this, but I think the spreadsbably going to get bigger after this game.
After this game, yeah, I think that's right.
So again, if you're listening to it, people are probably listening to this after the game is over anyway, so maybe the line has already moved. It is three, and it's three everywhere, like, there's no non threes that I'm looking at in the market, because I think that that is probably the right line necessarily.
But I would take the Chiefs if it gets over a field goal.
I do worry a little bit, because you're right, the Chiefs are a phenomenal team, but not great at covering the spread necessarily. If it's at three, I feel fine because I really do feel confident that a the Chiefs are going to win this game again without having seen this go, and second that it's going to be by at least a field goal. So I feel comfortable at three. When it gets three and a half, the total is bananas. I'm not even like, I'm just not going near fifty
five and a half points. Bread, I get it. Patrick, The Chiefs can do that by themselves if they really had to. But I'm just staying away. Last one here, a really really really angry Packers team at home on Monday Night football against the Lions. Laying ten and a half points there, Get sure that hook is there, because they're going to make you If you want the Packers, they're going to make you mad. And total of forty eight and a half points.
Yeah, I'm realizing now that I like three double digit favorites in the NFL and that's.
Not What would the spread have to be for you to not take the Packers in this game? And that's the question.
I think it'd have to be two touchdowns. I think it would have to be. I mean, but then again, the Lions put up four hundred and thirty yards last week, so maybe the Lions aren't as bad as everyone thinks. Maybe Dan Campbell's you know, kind of raw raw, you know, motivation, kind of tactics is kind of working for the Lions. So it's hard to really argue too much against the Lions right now. But yeah, the Packers, I would think,
are angry. Now. I'm not never gonna handicap too much based on what I assume someone's emotions are going to be heading into a game, but they're either the number one or number two scoring offense last year, they're going up against what it's supposed well, they are the bad defense because even though that game was closed to put up a ton of points on them, correct, the green Bay green Bay will score. It's is whether or not are the lines going to be able to keep it
close enough during the game. So yeah, I will back the Packers in this one, but I might need it. I need it, might need to reevaluate some of my pass picks because it could take it three double edgit favorites makes me worry, but I like that freedom, so I'll probably stick with them.
Yeah, I think that the Packers either, ID saide. Oh look see, this is a New York experience for you. If everyone can hear that in the background, Ian has moved to New York. It's fine, You're fine. They're not there for you, I promise. Yeah, I missed my old sounds.
Of New York anyway.
Uh yeah, I agree with you that even at ten and a half, I leaned towards the Packers. I'm actually a little more excited about the total because I do think that the Packers. First of all, the Lions have terrible defense. I have a terrible secondary, and Jeff Okuda now has I think an achilles injury. So a bad secondary just gets worse. I think the Packers are going to put up monstrous amount of points in this game.
I think it's gonna be ton and I think that the Lions, I think they'll probably be able to do close not what they did last time, but in terms of the back door sort of like this game is over, the Packers don't want to get injured on defense, They're gonna step back a little bit.
There's gonna be forty five thousand.
Jump offs to Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift and they'll be able to get there.
So that actually is a number that I would bet.
I don't think that it's necessarily going to climb throughout the year, like I don't think throughout the week. I don't think we're getting a fifty or fifty one. But at the same time, forty eight and a half I kind of lean the over because I view a lot of points.
Coming in this game. What do you think of that?
Yeah, give me the over. I forevery I agree with every single point you had about the over.
I love it. That's it.
Those are all the games. Man, I'm so happy football is back. We are done recording this before we get to look idiotic after, you know, whatever happens with the Raiders in the Ravens game. But Ian, you have been a guest on the show several times. It is always a pleasure to have you. I really appreciate it. Tell everybody where they can find you and your work.
Yeah. Absolutely, the best place is always a Twitter. As you mentioned at the start of the show, though there Ian mac Bett's I A I N M A C B E T s my parents out of the thrown extra eye into my name to make my life difficult. Also check out bet Sided and the Bacon Bets podcast comes out Thursday, and that's when I give my pick. I call it the Road to two seventy two this year because I give a pick for every single all two hundred and seventy two NFL games. So keep an eye out for that.
I mean I really look forward.
I did see that you were doing that, because yeah, I think you have it pinned your Twitter profile.
But man, God bless you good luck with it.
I hope you again have a profitable year, because that is not easy anyway. We will be back later in the week Joe and Joe, Piece of P and Scott Bogmhen are going to do the college Football Breakdown, and then I'll be back on Thursday with another guest talking about our best bets for Week two.
Of the NFL season.
Thanks for tuning in, everybody, and I'll talk to you again in a couple of days.