Head. Everybody.
Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is entering week fourteen. It is time to take an early look at the NFL lines for this weekend. With me to do that is Joe PiZZ at PA from Betting Pros right here. Find him on Twitter at what Joe P's at PA seventeen?
Is that right?
I've only done seventeen thousand podcasts with you, I should know your Twitter handle.
But anyway, welcome Joe.
How are you riding insanely high after that grotesque Patriots win last night?
It was a game of chess last night, Danny boy, it was a game of chess in the wind. And I'm about you, but when I played chess in the wind, I always like to have Bill Belichick with me right next to me. And yeah, you know, two out of three and bad is that old meat Loaf song? And that was pretty much Mac Jones's statline last night. Two out of three passes and that was good enough. Some
very good defense at the end. Next man up there after, Adrian Phillips comes off the field, and what a great play by a backup defensive back there to kind of save the game at the end. So certainly not a high scoring affair. But if you love old timey defense football, then you enjoyed it. And if you're a Patriots fan like me, you definitely enjoyed it.
I apparently engage in hyperbole too much, because when my wife asked, oh, how was the game? I was like, it was the most amazing game I've ever seen, Like, not in a great way, but justin ay, you don't see a quarterback of ten three passes And she basically says, I say that like one out of.
Every three or four games.
So I need to tone it down because that really was something where you're not going to see that again, you know, absent.
There will be more passes in the third and fourth grade flag football teams that I coach in January, when that league starts up the third and fourth graders, they will be more passing than there was in this game.
Absolutely nuts, but enjoyable. Get to watch nonethe last. All right, let's get into it. Joe got a lot of lines to talk about, a lot of good stuff coming in. But first let me give you the latest offer from bet MGM. New customers with the code Juice one hundred can bet ten dollars and win two hundred dollars. If your team that you bet on scores a touchdown, that's it. Ten dollars, win two hundred dollars in free bets. If
the team you bet on scores a touchdown. That is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, d C, Arizona, Nyoming. Let's go to Thursday game, Joe. Let's start it there. The Steelers are visiting the Vikings. The Vikings are laying three points here and the total
is forty four and a half. Steelers off the big win here over the Ravens, which you and I were just talking about as investors in Lamar Jackson for our MVP and the Vikings.
You know, they give the Lions their first win.
They lose Adam Thielen, so they are favored though here, and it is I will say again the consensus line is three, Joe, but it is three and a half and a lot of books here.
So how are you feeling about this one?
Yeah? Well, I mean Look, this is the bare minimum, right Whenever you have a home team you don't believe in, you just kind of throw the three on them. That's what Vegas does typically. And I gotta be honest with you. I mean, this is the journey of the Viking season where they're in every game, every game is closed, every game they have a lead, the games they lose, they
blow the lead. And in this one, who would not shock me whatsoever to get back to Minnesota here in this one and have them get a w against the Steelers, who have not played great football, who seem very sluggish, who should not have won in my opinion against the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore Ravens got a little too big for their breeches in that last game. So I actually like the Minnesota side of this game to win. And I think that they still got plenty of weapons here, justin
Jefferson plays out of his mind. They've still got Osbourne and still got Conkland, they still got Madison, all are very useful. So whether or not that defense can show up enough here and really at the stage, how much is left in the tank for the running game of the Pittsburgh Steelers. So in my opinion, I actually would lean towards Minnesota and this one in the minus three because I feel like this is exactly what it is to bet Minnesota every time you think it's done, Oh
they just lost to the Lions. Oh well, I can't bet them anymore. Where I'm gonna go against them, No, it's the opposite. So just continue with that trend because that's who they've been all season long. Dan, But what do you think about them? And what do you think about this forty four and a half?
I like the over a little bit, Joe.
I do think that the Steelers when they went to a little bit of the no huddle in the second half, they were able to move the ball a little more effectively, just sort of get it out quickly. Downtay Johnson obviously had a big game, so I do think that they are going to be points in this game. The Steelers defense has shown a lot of cracks. They've been dealing with injuries, so I think both teams can put up points here.
I don't mind the over.
I don't really have a great feel for the spread. As I look at this, this I guess feels about right. But you're correct. The Vikings are always going to play a very close game here and the Steelers coming off that win, you feel like there could easily be.
A letdown spot right here and the Vikings.
Every time you basically want to be out on the Vikings, that's when they come through, right So I think for me, Jo, it's to stay away here on the side just you know, three points.
But on the tuttal I like the over.
I am wondering though, Joe, if it's three and a half as it is at our sponsored bet MGM Fandel it's three, but at three and a half.
Do you does that change how you feel about it one way or another?
It does with the half, I think with the hook, then you start to look a little bit on Pittsburgh to cover there, because it probably will be a little bit. You know it's going to be in that range at least, But look at this point in time, on the short week two, whenever you have to travel, that's always hard. It's a very emotional game. And what we've learned too is when these teams have these big emotional rivalry games in their division, they come out flat the next week,
and they come out flat a couple days later. Is not gonna be surprised. Look at Cincinnati last week. That's what the game that you and I talked about. They're gonna come out flat. They came out flat and they got their doors blow enough by the Chargers, basically. So I see that same kind of thing happening here to
Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh just ekes out wins anyway. And with the Minnesota Vikings, it's just this is the trend of this team this year until further notice, and this is the perfect time to get in on it because I think everybody will be pounding the Steelers side of this game.
Yeah, I do expect that.
I expect more people to come in on the Steelers, which is why I'm a little surprised.
Again, this is one of those.
Where it looks like the books are completely fine with you taking the Steelers in this one, and that does make me a little nervous. So, Joe, have you looked I know what we talked about when we do this show together, because it's probably the third time we've done it, which is we come in fresh, like we don't look at the Lions whatsoever before we start.
Have you looked at any of the lines before we.
A single line. My friend, I'm.
Gonna ask you. I'm going to ask you something. There's no wrong answer here.
What do you expect with the Ravens coming off that loss and obviously now you know, losing Marlon Humphreys for the season, Ravens visiting the Browns, what would you expect the spread to be in that game?
Because answer, it's it's in Cleveland. I would expect Cleveland to be favored by not by the full three, That's what I would think. So it's probably two and a half or two.
Right, it is two and a half. Yeah, it is two and a half. The total is a low forty two and a half. So again, the Ravens here, they just look out of sort. You know, they don't look they don't have everything working. They're still eight and four, obviously they're leading the division. The Browns, you know, Baker looks like his body is holding on by a thread.
At this point.
They are coming off the buy, so maybe a little healthier. What do you think, Joe under the three?
You had it right?
It's two at DraftKings where I bet, But it's pretty much two and a half everywhere else in a low total forty two and a half.
Well, now that I'm going to look at it right here, and I see the money line is plus one fifteen on Baltimore. I think that is your best bet right there. And I see eighty three percent of the bets have already come on that side of that, So that tells you a lot right there. And I don't think that the Baltimore Ravens anticipated how much they were going to miss Matthew Judon in that pass rush. And I think that's the one thing that you're not seeing. This team's
not getting to the quarterback. And that's a bad commodation because when you lose Marlon Humphrey, right, who plays so well in the secondary, then you lose a good corner and then at the same time you're not getting to the cornerback. That's a bad situation. Now, the good news is Cleveland can't throw the ball, so that is the saving grace here in this particular game, which is why I prefer just an outright win for Baltimore here, Like,
forget the spreads, forget everything. Take the plus one fifteen on the money line. That's gonna be their best bet here, I think in any of these because Baltimore should have won that game. Baltimore is a I still think a better team than the Cleveland Browns. Now, we'll see if Cleveland Browns can get you know, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in that duo working again, and if they can, this game is going to be very tight. But these tight individual games are typically once I stay away from.
I would rather just pick a side rather than mess around with anything else. And I think picking the side of the Baltimore Ravens is what I would do because they have that one difference maker guy in Lamar Jackson, who could just take over a game, and I think that ends up becoming the difference of this one.
What do you think, Dah, Yeah, I like the Ravens. I do.
I think that the loss of Humphrey is big, but not as much in this game right as you mentioned, because they don't really you know, they're the passing game is not really you know, you don't rely on the dominant wide receiver or anything like that.
They're going to run the ball.
They're going to run it a ton, and they are off the by and the Ravens are probably going to be a little tired, but they're also going to be pissed they're going to be pissed off at losing that game, and I am going to take the two and a half. By the way, I mean, the money line is fine, but again, you see right now, a lot of these games.
I was watching it last night. I was on the.
The the Bills laying two and a half yesterday and I remember thinking that, you know, oh man, you know if Bass hits that first field goal, the one that went up and then just start of you know, leak to the right, that it was like, this is gonna be a two point game because half the you know, so many of these games right now, especially with the way the Ravens go for two, like the two and a half, it's more meaningful to me than it used to be, where it's just like all right, you're underfield goal,
like you know whatever. But like a lot of games at this point, I feel like fall within the two or something like that, or even the one. So I'll probably be a coward and take the two and a half right now. But I do think that the Ravens went out right, so I don't have any problem with necessarily the uh, the money line.
Bet. What do you think about the total show? It's forty two and a half.
That's low, but you know, neither one of these teams is exactly piling up the points. They're going to run a ton.
Yeah, Look, this was a really tough one to gauge because last time the total was in this game was you know, very underwhelming, and then last year it was out of this world, right that they hit like sixty five I think last year and then Giant was it the Sunday Night or Monday Night game whatever it was last year that they played together. So I'm out on the total because there's so many outcomes between these offenses.
You just don't know what you're gonna see. If these guys start breaking off big plays like Chubb and Haunt or Lamar, that changes the dynamic quite a bit. Or look, if anything, I would lean towards the under because of what Baker Mayfield has been unable to do in the passing game and his health. And we'll see what happens when they come out of the by if that rest time has any any help whatsoever to him. But I
don't know at this point in time. To me, like I said, I think the best money you're getting is that plus money on the money line with the Ravens, so I wouldn't even screw around with anything else. Game.
Only a mother could love the Falcons visiting the Panthers. The Panthers are laying three, and the total at forty three and a half sounds like Cam is still gonna be the starter, which does make sense. I mean, putting aside that terrible game Falcons, you know they fight. I'll give that to the Falcons there they fight Panthers off of by both teams sort of still in the playoff hunt at five and seven, so this is kind of
a make or break game for both of them. Again, Panthers out home off the by laying three small total forty three and a half.
Yeah, it's a very small total. And I really like the Carolina defense. I still do. And it's just a matter of how much offense you're going to get from Cam Newton. So we had a two plays in one game, then he had a good game, and then he had a wretched game. So does he have more time with the playbook, more time to practice, more time to figure
things out? Theoretically, yes, and you have a lesser opponent here in the Falcons in my opinion, So I think the Carolina defense probably gets a touchdown or at least puts them in position for a touchdown this game. I think that to me is the big difference maker. So the three on the side of the Carolina Panthers is where I would lean in this game. The forty three and a half seems about right to me though. That's why I don't care for the over under in this game.
So I would just take Carolina with the three because I do think that they can probably you know, end up with something looking like a twenty seven to twenty kind of game in this one, and that would go over. But once again, you know, we could also see Atlanta score you know, thirteen in this game and all of a sudden not nearly as excited of it. Over.
Yeah, I do lean a little bit towards the under, just because I mean, basically, why would you know.
The word is that Brady was fired because he didn't run.
The ball enough, And you know, I feel like, you've got Cam and you've got Hubbard, and I just think they're going to run the ball NonStop. They're not going to want to put this in Cam's hands here to try to make something happen that's going to lean itself towards the under a little bit as the clock continues to wind, and I don't really have faith that the Falcons are going to be able to put up a ton of points here against they rested in angry Panthers defense,
So I leaned the under. I'm not going to back either side on this one. It's just to stay away in a divisional game with Cam coming off, you know, a game that made you know, Mac Jones look like, you know, the greatest passer in the world. So I'm staying away from that. Cam Newton, what did you think.
Of the Joe Brady firing?
By the way, curious where did I what?
What do you think about the Joe Brady situation? There don't no man like its veruzzling to me.
It was, yeah, I was surprised that you got to blame somebody, I think right, like, you know you the Panthers are all in on this year, like that's a thing, like when they traded for Gilmore and they you know, they make signings every single time they've got anything.
They've been all in.
And the bottom line is, I don't really know what you can expect to do when your greatest offensive asset me and Christian McCaffrey misses the entire game, and you have a poo poo platter of revolving quarterbacks like Sam Donald played very well the first few games, and I think that tricked them into thinking that Sam Donald was the answer. And I think you and I probably you live in Jersey. I'm a jer you probably understood that he wasn't. So I think it seems a little strange
to me to fire him midseason. But they really do seem like a team that had playoff aspirations, which they did, of course, and I have a sprinkle on them to make the playoffs, and they just got They got to blame somebody, man.
So that's how we have a college coaching job. In about two seconds, yeah.
Sure, absolutely, Jaguars visiting the Titans. The Titans are laying nine and a half total forty four.
Let's see, let's bring this one of the Titans.
This is the game.
If you're the Titans, you kind of win this and you control your destiny no matter how many injuries you've had. Nine and a half seems like a big number for an offense that's this gross. At this point in time, I know they're talking about getting Julio Jones back. I just I just look, the Titans should win this game. I'm sure the Titans will win this game. Nine and a half just seems like a really big number for
this offense right now. So I would actually lean to the Jacksonville side of this that did take the points with the nine and a half, just because and it's it's not because I have any confidence in Jacksonville whatsoever, but it just feels as though the Tennessee Titans offense right now is not equipped for that kind of a spreads. That's my problem here.
It's actually eight and a half for you, Joe at Fandel, it's nine and a half everywhere else. So Fandel's sort of drawn a line in the said, yeah, nine and a half.
I agree.
I like the Jaguars as well, which is it's the first time, Joe that I think I've said I'm willing to back.
The Jaguars this right now. And again, yeah, Julio has been designated to return from injured reserve.
That doesn't mean he's gonna play this weekend, but it does mean that he is twenty one days and it's a good sign.
For his availability.
And yeah, this is a game. Titans need to win this game, like, I mean, there's no doubt about it. At this point, we're joking about the Colts and what they were to win the division right at this point there, what was it, Joe, seventy to one.
Yeah, seventy to one for the Colts. Now, look, if Jacksonville somehow pulls off a huge upside here against Tennessee, things we go very dicey, very quickly. It's fascinating that eighty percent of the money is on the Tennessee side of this game early on.
That I'm sure the Lakes haven't hit it yet right the.
Last No, they haven't. But I'm saying that it's the lazy of the general public just saying Titans Jaguar. That's exactly why you take this nine and a half when you.
Got it's going to be a pros Joe's game, man, Like it really is, right. I think people are going to be like the Titans that you know, they're coming off the by they're going to get things right, and they are extremely well coached, and the Jaguars are dumpter fire, but the Titan.
Actually I lean the under as.
Well, Joe, because I do think that the Titans are going to do in this game is they are not going to take chances. They're gonna you know, relax, there's going to be a lot of you know, do you have to foreman, There's going to be a lot of Dontrell Hilliard, maybe some Lulio Jones, but they're going to take their spots again without who even with him man, like you know he's been battling injury again. What are you looking at him in that? Nick Westbrookakina, right, that's your guy.
It's twenty thirteen. Gets this done for us?
Yeah, I I you know the underwear at forty four and again unders are disgusting, but I'm willing to.
Be unders on forty four.
It's really cross Saints visiting the Jets. The Saints are laying just had dead number here at five and a half. Another load a lot of all.
Totals this week, Joe forty three and a half here for this one.
So it's a lot of low totals last week too. And I think it's also indicative of the quarterback player. You're getting to be getting a lot of backup quarterback, secondary quarterback, so you know when that starts to happen and you're also getting that point in the year too, where it's going to change in the next few weeks when defenses start checking out and all of a sudden, these tolls are going to get obliterated because teams are
going to just say, what times my playing reservation? Oh yes, I'm you know, I'm out of here.
And it's also it's also cold, like it's something where you know, I think teams get a little more conservative and they run the ball a little bit, a little more smashed.
Yeah, but this this is gonna flip in two weeks considerably. So when you're looking at these low numbers. Now, when you get two weeks seventeen and eighteen, look for overs. Even on games you don't think it's gonna be an over because, like I said, defenses just kind of start two fold of the tense, and nobody wants to get hit for no reason, to get hurt when they've got contracts coming up in things of that nature. New Orleans should win this one in a walk.
Uh.
And defensively, certainly they match up. It's funny because you know, the Jets for some reason feel more competitive when Zach Wilson's not playing quarterback. For me, but I gotta give him credit to have a win a couple weeks ago. Both not a good game against the Eagles this past week, I.
Mean over the Texans, Joe, Let's.
I know, it's still he got a w. You beat the Titans, you.
Beat the Texts. I also, like, I'm not saying anything bad about Zach Wilson ninety.
He has not played well, certainly in the in the second part of the season, but I want to make it clear, like I'm not drawing any conclusions on him long term yet they need a better team around him. But yeah, it's really hard to have any confidence in against against the decent defense.
Well, I just think the New Orleans roster right now overmatches them. And New Orleans has a lot of problems, granted, but the biggest problem they have is in the coverage, and that's something that the Jets are not a prolific passing team. So to me, it's that five and a half is pretty safe with New Orleans. I'm actually surprised only fifty six percent of the money early on has gone to the New Orleans side of this game at the.
Five and a half.
That is actually a little surprising to me.
Yeah, I don't know, man like, it's probably just a game I want to stay away from.
I could see the Jet.
I mean, the Saints are really not playing like a very good football team here. Joe there, you know, and Hill obviously is the quarterback. He can run. They should just run them, you know, in the wildcat every play. That's all unless Kamara comes back here, which again we
have question marks about. But they should just run them every play, and they could probably put up a touchdown on you know, seventy five percent their drives just doing that without throwing the ball at all, little mac jone style. But it's really as as sort of mediocre as the Saints have been of late, it's really difficult to see them off the mini by here coming on Thursday, needing a win again five and seven. It puts you in
contention for that seventh playoff spot right now. We're just talking about it with the Falcons and the Panthers.
They need win.
They're gonna come out, They're gonna play angry, they're gonna play hard. It's just gonna it's tough to see the Jets keeping it close. At the same time, just this dead number Matt Prout always has like when it's five and a half, four and a half, five and a half, books are just kind of throwing up their hands and being like, I don't really know what we're doing right now, so I'll probably stay away from it entirely. This next one, though, Joe,
find myself intrigued by is. I just took a look at it as I looked ahead to our next game. The Raiders are visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs have won what five in a row? I think nine and a half They are laying to the Raiders. The total is pretty high, forty eight and a half. What's your gut reaction.
This one, Joe? Is that about right?
Two?
Nine and a half?
You know what? It's The nine and a half is correct for the Chiefs of yesteryear. For the Chiefs of this year, it's a little puzzling, but it feels like something that they could handle. My initial gut reaction is the under though in the forty eight and a half,
because they just haven't looked great. And the hard part is because now we're gonna go back and look a couple weeks ago and how Patrick Mahomes absolutely dismantled this team, right, remember, right one hundred yards against him a few weeks ago. So I think that's why you're seeing this nine and a half, and that's why you're seeing all this confidence in Patrick Mahomes all of a sudden after it's not even Patrick Mahomes, it's really the offense is a unit altogether.
And he says it in the press comp too. You saw him this past week. It's like, yeah, we won, but we're still you know, missing opportunities, and they are and the offensive line still has not really gelled together yet. And it's week fourteen, So if it hasn't shelled yet, I don't know what we're waiting for at this point.
This was the high point in their season though, playing the Raiders, it's ken you do it twice, and honestly, the way the Kansasity defense has played this year, I think the safest thing to do is just spent the under here in the forty eight and a half, because there's two things going in your favor. Number one is the Las Vegas offense. Right Derek Waller's injured, you just lose Kenny and Drake. They're kind of falling apart here
at the end. I think they're kind of like paced together with glue and all kinds of things, and they're just like glue sticks, not even real Elmer's glue, like glue sticks. Just peel them right apart. And then the other thing is the Kansasity defense, which over the last month or so play significantly better. You put those two things together, and I think you get the Under in this game in the forty eight and a half. That's what I would go to, and I would not miss around with the nine at all.
I'm gonna die here while I'm coughing, Joe, I think I like both the Under and the Raiders.
You know, it's scary. I agree.
The Chiefs are content as they should be right now because their defense has played so much better of late. They are content to rely on their defense, which again I think we just talked about that that leads us
towards the Under, both of us. But their offense right now, Joe, as much as they did that against the Raiders, like right now, they just do not look They almost don't look interested necessarily and even putting up these giant points, right they look interested in avoiding taking these too many
chances and just playing conservatively and not pushing it. And you know, Mahomes also still doesn't look like Mahomes like that much, at least with the offense, like he's dancing around, dancing around, and then he's just firing it in there and sort of these short throws. I think the Raiders were able to keep this close enough, and I think this is a game. You know, you come off a Raiders of poor effort here in.
This last game. I think they keep it close enough here.
You know, I'd love it if it got to ten, of course, but I mean at fox Bet it's nine. At points Bet it's nine, so probably closer to there than it would be to ten. I think you'd see a lot of Sharp's hammer and if.
It got to there.
But I still like them at nine and a half. But I do like the under as well at forty eight and a half. I mean, the Chiefs are content to rely on their defense, and their defense is playing very well right now. So this strikes me as a not close Joe, but closer than people expect lower scoring games. So I think we're on the same sign on the total. Let's go to the Cowboys visiting the football team. The Cowboys on the road are laying four total. Here is
forty eight and a half. Washington is they're on a roll here, Joe. I mean, they're relying on that run game here with Gibson, They're no problem.
Giving him the ball.
They've got the defense despite the loss of Chase Young, playing pretty well. Overall, well coached. Cowboys here are you know, a little hit or myths, but they come off the win against the Saints.
What do you think?
I think this number should be six on the side of the Dallas Cowboys. I think the line is wrong here personally, and whenever I think the line is wrong and I want to jump on it right away. So I actually think the Cowboys with the four is great because yes, what you're seeing is a Washington team that is very competitive and they play hard. But I just
think that they're going to be outmatched here. I think if you look at some of these games that Washington's played of late, you know, some of the competition, they always played the Tampa Bay Bucks tough. I don't know why, they just do. Some weird teams just have better team's numbers. It's just a fact of life. Sometimes. I can't tell you how many frustrating times I used to watch amazing Patriot teams go into Miami and get their rear ended hand into them for no reason, and we all look
at each other, what just happened? Why are we losing in Miami. I don't understand that Tom Brady doesn't like the heat. Apparently it's fine because now he plays in Tampa. He wins Super Bowl's there. But to me, this Dallas offense, especially with healthy CD Lamb, you can really, you know, air it out here. And they've had some injuries to this defense of Washington, So Washington it's an outstanding job. They're well coached team, they have great effort. Antonio Gibson,
you're right, hows look good. But to me, it's the Cowboys and it's the over in this one, and I think this is actually going to be a very fun fantasy game to be a part of. But the forty and a half I like the over, and the four I like right now because I think the numbers should be five and a half or six for the Dallas Cowboys. I think they are sally be a little bit extra
time to rest. I think they are favorites in this game, and I know it's on the road, and that's probably why you're getting the four, But I just feel like the line's wrong.
Dan.
Yeah, I don't know, man, I don't love it. I either side of the spread. I'm not running to take Washington whatsoever. I just don't have a good bead right now on the Cowboys.
They look a little disjointed.
But what you should have really for the first time, Joe, I think is everybody kind of healthy for the Cowboys on their offense, right, Like, at least in terms of the skill players, because Amari Cooper, we knew he'd be limited last week, right, we knew that he wouldn't be getting.
The normal snap count.
Zeke at times running looked like me running right like, just sort of like try to not hurt himself. But he did loosen up a little bit as the game went on, and again Pollard looks good.
So they should have all their offensive weapons. I could see that.
One of the reasons why I don't love the over is because Washington is so run heavy and so conservative. I mean, Washington is able to put together these long drives because every single time they gain a first down, they're gaining thirteen yards, right, So it's like one of these things where they take three plays to gain thirteen yards, three more plays to gain fourteen yards before you know they have a ten minute drive going on where they settle for a field goal. So I don't lean the
over of anything. I lean the under, but it's probably more of a stay away but a divisional game, man, I don't know. I don't want to bet against Washington right now, so I'll just stay.
With There's more piece to keep in mind for as landing Collins being out, because Collins is playing very well and he's very fersatile. He's a guy that plays safety you can play linebacker like. He's a guy that you could get a lot out of. I think this is the game where that gets exposed because I don't think they've hit since that injury. I don't think they've had somebody on their schedule where they look it and go, okay, really got it, Like you gotta worry abou Dallas throw
the football on you big time. So I think that's where it kind of the rubber meets the road here in this one. And I think that's where you know the combination of Chase Young in the past rush of the combination of Atlantic Collins being out too, I think that's a bad combination for this particular.
Matchup, Seahawks visiting the Texans.
The Seahawks are laying seven and a half with the toba of forty two and a half. We've got no Torod Taylor. It doesn't really matter right now. He's gonna be out for this game. So you got David Smells. The Seahawks riding high after their big win over the forty nine ers, saved quote unquote their season, but laying more in a touchdown here.
What do you think I think Torod Taylor's Charlie Brown. I just I feel so terrible for toront telm Nothing ever works out for this guy. Good grief, Good grief, mister Taylor. I just want something, you know. This one scares the hell out of me because theoretically, yeah, Seaws should go in there and just blow their doors off. But I have zero confidence in Seattle right now, so this game feels kind of like a stay away of
anything to me. Maybe I go to the under on the forty two because the inept to suit of the Houston offense. That's probably the safest thing here, rather than to screwn it all with the seven and a half, because who knows what happens in garbage time in some of these games, or or if Seattle can even hold the lead. I don't know. All I know is the forty two and a half, even though it's a very low number, feels like the safest investment here. But this is not a game that I feel good about investing
because Seattle has given me very little confidence. Despite a big win last week, that's great, there's still a lot of issues with this team, and once again big Indivision game, big emotional win. Then you go on the road against Houston, do you come out flat? And if you do, that certainly helps with this under.
I think if I'm going to have a plan this game, I'll tease the Seahawks down like test Fair one. So I mean at draftings is one, it's seven, so I could tease them to one. But at one and a half, maybe that's it. That No, I don't want to force
myself to watch this game. I don't want to have to be relying on the Seahawks to cover more than seven points, right even though gun to my head, Joe, I mean I'd probably take them at seven and a half, just because I think the more plausible that the Texans are so bad like they're so bad and they look
disinterested right now, which understandable completely. But it's again that I think the Seahawks could as Wilson gets a little healthier, a little more accurate, I could see them trying to use this as a as a jumping off point for DK Metcalf, trying to throw a little bit get their passing game right in the game. They should win handily, so probably stay away from me if anything else, t
use the Seahawks down. Lions visiting the Broncos. Fresh off the giant win for the Lions, the totals forty two. They are getting eight points here in Denver from the Broncos. You know, the Broncos are again. You know they look pretty terrible against the Chiefs. They lost that game Handley. They need to bounce back here. I mean letdown.
Spot for the Lions, Joe after the big win or what.
Well, the Lions have been competitive. It happens like they play hard. The problem with the Lions is they don't have talent, so they don't match up well and then they always end up falling short and the quarterback play
doesn't help them if they don't have weapons. DeAndre Swift's injury doesn't help, you know, if you're gonna laugh at this, but if Melbourne Gordon's out for this game too, I like the Denver side because I think Javonte Williams looks that good in this backfield, and they have so much trouble there with the run that I think Gavante's can just run a muck on them. If Gordon's back in this mix and you get more to that sixty to forty fifty to fifty split, I actually like the Detroit side.
So this is a game that I think you wait for a little bit more news until you have it. But my initial instinct right now is to take the eight points in Detroit because Denver is not exactly a world beating offense no matter what, and it feels like Detroit once again. You know, they just got rewarded for
their competitiveness. Yes, a very emotional game, but I think that they are better than some of the two and three win teams that are out there Detroit, at least the way they've played this year in terms of effort level. So I'll take the eight points with Detroit right now. That's my instinct. Dan the forty two, I mean, my instinct says over in this one too, because the Denver defense can be very inconsistent at times. But what do you think about this line so far?
I think I don't love it.
But if I had to go one way, it would be the Lions, you know, because that just betting on the Broncos to beat a team by more than a touchdown right now just seems foolhardy, like just that. I mean, they can, of course I have, but just to have confidence in them being able to do that, I don't have it. And the Lions, like, you're right, Joe. The biggest thing with the Lions is they will play hard.
And we make fun of Dan Campbell, but that team plays hard to the very quarters four quarters, baby, all the time.
So the total I don't want to get near.
I assume the Broncos are going to win this game, but I think the Lions are going to play and you know, Teddy looks banged up, you know, you know, just generally battling through. They haven't found a way to utilize any of their wide receivers. Unfortunately, as good as you know, all those guys are, so strikes me as a game that the Broncos probably win. By like, you know, somewhere between three and seven. So I'd probably take the Lions, but not a game I'm running to take.
What about the charge.
Joe at home here against the Giants that can census ten and a half? There's ten's out there, but there's a lot of ten and a half. The total is forty five and a half. I guess the thought is we're gonna get Jake from I guess because Daniel Jones is all but ruled out right now. I've got Mike Lennon with the concussion, but you have Keenan Allen out
most likely not he's on the COVID list. He did test positive, so I don't know if he's vaccinate or if we've heard anything on that, but I guess he's not technically ruled out yet for this weekend, but I assume that he's probably gonna be out.
It's ten and a half.
I mean, you feel like they could maybe score no points offensively Joe and still find a way to win this game just based on their defense.
But what do you think You're a ten and a half?
You know, I don't usually like these huge numbers, typically speaking, But whats going on with the Giants offense. And it's not even just the court. I mean the quarterback play's enough right now, right yeah, just downgrade potentially to Jake from or Mike Lennon RNY of those goods. And then you throw in that Shepherd's been hurt and Tony's been her and nobody's practicing together, nobody's working together, and Dalladay has been a complete bust and Sekwon Barkley is you know,
just uninspiring at this point in this offense. I think the ten, and actually I love to lock in the ten wherever I could before you get to the hook. That's what I would like to say.
Spots out there are a couple of spots out there where it's ten.
Yeah, take the ten where you can get the ten, and take the Chargers because, like I said, it's just there's so many issues here, and when you don't have your personnel working together on the field, and then you have lesser personnel leading it at quarterback, that is a really tough selle to go on the road across country and play a team like the Chargers who has a really good pass rush, right like Bosa is going to
be on top of whoever's playing quarterback most likely. And then on top of which, they are very opportunistic secondary, like they're they're hit and miss. Which is why the Chargers are seven and five and don't have eight or nine wins is because sometimes they play a little fast and loose on the defensive side of the football. And because of that, what I believe is that you're gonna probably in this game where you don't have a great offense and loose is gonna work because the Giants are
gonna make a mistake. So I think i'd lock in the ten where I could get rid of the hook and take the Chargers. Ignore the overunder because you have no idea what you're gonna get out of. That's the thing. People would be tempted this, like, oh, it's gonna be a blowout, let's take the Chargers, right. But for this to happen, you have to get the New York Giants to do their part. I have concerns if the Giants can do their part in this game depending on who's
playing quarterback. Therefore, go to the ten, stay away from the over under.
I agree the ten right now is at BETMGM and said Fox. Bet our books Joe are at ten and a half. Yeah, I'd go with the Chargers, but it's, you know, such a bizarre game here with everything that's going on. People who listen to this podcasts regularly know which way I'm going to go in this game, Joe. This is the forty nine Ers visiting the Bengals. Both teams off tough losses here. You know, the forty nine Ers kept it close. Bengals just got you know, their
butts kicked in this game by the Chargers. Forty nine Ers here are getting a point in Cincinnati, Joe, and then totals forty seven and a half. What do you think about this one?
This is the fascinating game of the week, right this this screams run away. But if you want to take a stand here, the only thing that even gives me pausey at the Bengals is that pinky of Joe Burrow. Because it sounds like, oh it's a pinky's it is a big deal because you could see the pain that he had on the sidelines trying to throw the football
and work through it. And that's that finger that when you throw the football, it really gives you that that control at the very end there that helps with that spiral, So that is something that is concerning to me. Now, is then concerning enough to go to the San Francisco side for me? No, because I'm not a big fan of the fot and hours this year. I think they've fallen into everything breaking right. Deebo Samuel's health has a lot to do with this game. If Deebo's back in
this game, that makes me stay away from it. But if he's out of this game, I would, you know, favor the Cincinnati side. It's very tricky. I think you're looking at the lines too. You're getting the minus one ten on the one, and you're getting minus fIF team for the Bengals to win outright, So you might as well just take the point if you think like there's no reason, there's no incentive to just take the Bengals
to win on the money line just doesn't exist. So you might as well just go ahead and take the one, and go ahead and take Cincinnati at home and take because they because they did show up eventually in that game against the Chargers, and then there were a couple of moments like Jamar Chase didn't come up with that ball.
If he does, maybe a very different game.
It's a very right. So there were moments there where they did play catch up, but it just they fell short. And this is what a young team has, where they go through these growing pains where they're really you know,
they have really good talent. They you know, start beating the Pittsburgh Steelers, right, but then they don't understand that you have to prepare and let that go for the next week and it doesn't matter that team is gonna come in your building this competitive, they're gonna whoop your ass. So I think that San Francisco is a perfect example of Okay, now you gotta be ready. You're gonna let two West Coast teams here back to back whoop you at home. I don't think so. So I like the
Cincinnati side of this one too. How do you feel about this one? Because this one's very close.
I basically have spent four weeks in a row fading the Bengals and it mostly has not worked out. It did this bad, it did this past week. I think the Bengals are a very very overrated team. I think the four nine Ers are much better team. Just just putting aside everything and again, you know, I look at DVA. I think it's just like a very easy, sort of just general way to look at the teams. The forty nine ers total total DVA seventh, the Bengals are eighteenth.
Like I think that's just a very very simple way to look at the fact that the forty nine ers are a much better team.
Now.
The forty nine ers, Joe, you noted, don't know if we're gonna get Debo back. When you get a one to two week injury, Joe, I always take the over, so I assume he's gonna be out this week. You also have Elijah Mitchell. My guess is he's not gonna play this week because he got the big hit, came back in the game, and then subsequently the.
Next day has concussion symptoms.
That's bad. They also don't have Jeff Wilson. That's bad because he had then flare up Trey Sermons on IR. So you might have Jamichael Hasty and Kyle Uschek and that's it in the run game. That really hurts. But this is a better team. You got the Pinky Joe, which you met. If word is bad, you know what I heard about Burrow Joe with the pinky is he's optimistic. He can play through it. That's not what you want to hear. You want to hear this is nothing. I'm
totally fine, let's go. So the fact that he does have that, I think of word leaks that it's bad.
That's bad.
So this is a West Coast team again, as you mentioned, Joe coming east. But the Chargers didn't seem to have any problem. And also this is a four to twenty five game, which I think makes it a lot easier for their internal.
Collaps right to sort of do that. So I'm on the forty nine Ers here.
My guess is I will be taking them on Wednesday on Thursday on our Best Bets Show, because I am I am at this point fading the Bengals pretty hard.
But that is just how Dan Harris does it this year, and it has not always worked out.
You and I would have agreed last week on fading the Bank.
You were on the Chargers as well.
I was very much on the Childcat because whenever you have that big emotional victory for an individual apponent, especially the Steelers that have the team that's been whooping on you, and that was the third time in a row that they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they beat them at halftime that game was over thirty.
I was on the Steelers by the way on that game too because I I fade the Bengals.
But yeah, they that's what after that soundspot right?
You have to know that there's going to be that we're going to come out flat at least. Yeah, and the Chargers, you know we're not going to come out flat. The Chargers are going to are a very well coached team, and Staley's inn a really good job there. I really like him as a coach. I think that's a team that, you know, everyone who makes one of the Chargers are going to charge and all that stuff. I think you could throw that away. I don't think that's what Brandon
Stale is about. And the preparation there I think is very good. And there's still, in a lot of ways a young team that's got to learn how to win. And last week I think was a really good, you know, fork in the road for them in the right direction.
Yeah, no, I agree, it's a good one coming up, Joe. The Bills are visiting the box.
The Bucks are Atlanta field goal fifty two and a half with the total here, Joe, you know, look the Bills, right now are a little bit of crossroads here, Joe. They're seven and five, Like they are seven and five at this point that that's miraculous to think about. Their offense has really not been able to get go side but the wind game, and they're gonna be stinging after that one. Like their offense has not been able to get it done. They obviously lost for Davius White for
the season. That's a huge loss to their defense. The Bucks nine to three continue to roll no Antonio Brown, but it doesn't really matter.
They can get it done any which way. How do you feel about this one?
Yeah, it doesn't matter because Chris Godwin had fifteen catches. Rob Gronkowski had a dozen catches, So what does it matter. Hopefully there won't be hurricane wins in Tampa, like hopefully they can get rid of any kind of wind yer back to back weeks here or then. But the White injury is huge because that secondary was really the strength
of the defense. And we take away your number one corner, everybody moves up a slot and number one corners are number one corners and the reason and not every team has a number one corner. And again, we talk so much on the fantasy side of things about offense, and I think that filters into so much of our wagering. We don't talk enough about defense on both sides, whether it be betting, whether it be fansy. We don't talk
about what that impact is. And right now that injury is going to absolutely show up in this game against Tom Brady, because when you have an injury to the secondary like that, when you have a situation where you have a quarterback that's that good in terms of finding the open guy. This could be a really long day here. And Mike Hyde and Jordan Poyer are great players and all of them and I'm not taking anything away from
those dudes. I love them. But this is tough here because Buffalo kind of suffers from the same problem that the Chiefs are suffering from, which is when you become one dimensional, you become predictable, and would become predictable, you become beatable in the NFL. And that's what's happened to both of these teams offensively, they become predictable. Now the Chiefs starting to work in cly Wortz a layer more, I think is a good thing, but there is no
cech here for the Buffalo Bills. It ain't Matt Brida, okay, And it's not Devin Singletary or Zach Moss. So it's really Josh Allen kind of feeling the load here, and I worry that that's a lot to put on. And because when Josh Allen takes on too much, Josh Allen overplays and tries to get out of three tackles and then chuck the ball, and that's all bad Josh Allen.
Those are the old bad habits. And if those habits come out against Tampa, you're gonna see issues here, and you're going to see you know, Tampa can also get to the quarterback a little bit to you. I don't know, man for this one. I feel pretty confident in Tampa at this three and and it's it's sad because I love Josh Allen. I love this Bills team. I was picking them to win the East this year, but this just feels like a seven and six situation when they are on that plane Sunday.
Yeah, I agree with you, Joe.
I think you have to go with the Bucks right now at the field goal. And again, it has nothing to do with last night, like they could have very easily won that game obviously, and it was a crazy game. Dawson knock dropped a bunch of passes and stuff like that, but it was just I throw it at it's.
The mental state of last night's game. Yeah, that you lost at home to the Patriots, and that was the one you didn't want to lose because it was your home game. If you split, it's fine, but you want to win the one at home because that's the one. It's a lock, and then you feel better going into Tampa because what happens is these losses start to mount and you start you start winning, losing, winning losing, and you start to have there's no confidence built. Yeah, that's
the problem. If you go look in this game log for the Buffalo Bills, it's up and down, and that's not a good situation for them from a confidence standpoint.
Yeah.
To me, they're just playing poorly routinely, right, Like, that's the bottom line. They just they haven't played well in a while offensively as well, and you mentioned it. They have a little bit of the Chiefs syndrome, where you know, opposing defense has started taking away the explosive plays.
They can't run it.
They don't like to go short, you know that much, and Alan holds the ball a little too long. So yeah, they are struggling right now, and it's just really difficult to see them on a short week going into Tampa and beating that team. So if you're getting three, like, if you're just laying three, I agree with you, Joe. I think you got to go with the Bucks here. I think the Bills are still overrated in the market
right now. Bears are visiting the Packers on Sunday Night football twelve and a half right now at eleven and a half. For me at draftings, it's rare, Joe, I joke about this where you see a giant spread and a total of forty four, Like, it's just it's not often. Don't know who's going to be quarterback now, it's pain tolerance issue for dustin fields at this point. Don't know if Alan Robinson is going to be back. I don't
know if it matters. And you've got again the Packers coming off the buy here, Aaron Jones is back, Tota Adams is there, Aaron Rodgers is there and hopefully his foot toe feels a little better here. Twelve and a halfs a very big number.
Joe, especially with the total that low, But what do you think about it?
Every fiber of my being after Aaron Rodgers keeps talking about how I own you, I own the Bears. I want to take the Bear so bad this in the twelve and a half, but I can't do it. I just can't do it. Like the fact is he does owe them, he owns them until further notice. And this is not the game because of the health as you
just point out, the situation a quarterback. Oh, everything going on there, and the defense for the Bears is respectable, but the problem is that the offense just continues to put them on the field too much and in that situation. So it's a bad combination of things. And you can't do that with Aaron Rodgers, and you certainly can't do that on the road, you know, if you're the Bear. So I hate saying twelve and a half is safe, but I feel like twelve and a half is actually
pretty safe. You're in this one, so I would go to twelve and a half. I would stay away from the forty four though. If anything, if anything, the over for the garbage time stuff like forty four is too low in this game, too because I think Green Bay could put up thirty by themselves, and then we're asking a lot of the Bears at all. So that's something to keep in mind. So forty four over twelve and a half, you can get it at twelve somewhere to take it without the hook.
It's eleven and a half for me at DraftKings, But I probably it's weird sort of the outlier in the market, which is good, by the way. I like it when books are and just always in Unison here. But yeah, I mean I think there's no way I could take the Bears. I'm not touching the total. There's no way
you could take the Bears. Right now, I'm with the Packers at home at Lambeau on Sunday night football, you know, and I naturally televised game like you can just see them sort of, you know, crushing them.
So if I go one way or the.
Other, I probably will go with the Packers. It's not a game I really I hate the big like spreads like that. I just automatically sort of have an aversion too. But whatever, last game Monday night football, good one Rams visiting the Cardinals.
Spread is three totals fifty one and a half.
This is a big here, this same playoff game. This is huge because Arizona having Kyler Murray back healthy last week, or healthy enough to play at least last week. We don't know how healthy he really is, but he was on the field and he had four touchdowns. So that's good enough for me, it's good enough for you. So I'm gonna take the Arizona side of this game because what I keep seeing from the Rams is they continue to be their own worst enemy, and it's kind of frustrating.
I watched that game against the Packers a few weeks ago where Sean McVay is calling a fourth down, going for it in their own thirty on the road in the first quarter, and I'm thinking to myself, who do you think you are? And this is why really good teams of the NFL sometimes lose because their head coach is too smart for their own goods. Sometimes it makes
stupid decisions and puts them behind. Sean McVay can have all the confidence in the world he wants against you know, in his offense, against whoever opponent, all that nonsense, but there's just things you do and things you don't do. And my concern is in this game on the road, Sean McVay is going to make a stupid decision at some point in time, and it's gonna put them in a bad position and the Cardinals are gonna take advantage of it. And I think it's time we start to
put some respect on the Cardinals defense too. This team has played very well defensively all year. Despite every week everybody waiting for the other shoot to drop, it just hasn't. And they've lost personnel year over year. I mean, Simmons has played terrific, They've They've had a really good year out of their linebacker corps. The Rams I think are a better team on paper, but it just feels like, for whatever reason, them putting it together. And I don't
care what happened this week against Jacksonville. I don't care. You should stomp a mud hole in Jacksonville. You're a significantly better roster than them. That means absolutely nothing to me coming into this game. And I actually like Arizona here to win this game, so I'll take the I will still take the three with Arizona because I think they can win by that much. But Dan, I'm curious, would you take the Rams side and the points in this game.
I don't think so. I think you're right. I think I'm on the same size. This is one where you know, sometimes Joe, I don't know about you, but sometimes I have a reaction to games early when I look at them right here, as we do on Monday, and then as I dig into it as the week goes on, sometimes I changed sides.
I did that with Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
When I first looked at the line it was four four and a half, I said, I just feels like the Ravens are gonna be able to win this game pretty handily. But as I dug into it, by the end of the game, by the end of the week, I was I was on the Steelers, and I had them in our app by the way, our betting pros.
App where we can lock our picks.
This one, though, it does feel like the Cardinals, and it just feels like with a healthy Kyler Murray, with DeAndre Hopkins getting healthier, James Connor is playing great.
The Rams look a little.
Lost right now, and I think like they'll probably try to run the ball sort of. You know, you heard McVay talking about the fact that they liked the running style more.
You know what they did with Michelle, which was just sort of a.
Downhill, you know runner, And maybe Henderson gets back, so maybe they try to do that more. But obviously the loss of Robert Woods, I think is you know, bigger Odell Beckham junior is he's banged up, like he caught
the touchdown pass obviously, but he's banged up. Van Jefferson is fine, Cooper Cup's amazing, but I just don't know if they have the firepower right now to stay with the Cardinals offensively, which with Murray fully healthy, and I think they played this correctly, thankfully in giving him so much time off after that ankle spring right because you know, you heard him a game day decision two weeks in a row before the bye, and I was like, please don't play him, Please just.
Let him rest.
Rely on Colt McCoy to win most of the games would be fun. And then get him to buy and then get him healthy. And man, you saw what he looked like. He just when he gets out of the pocket, he's just impossible to bring down. Right now, this is also it for the division. I mean, if they win
this game, the division's over. Like I mean, they'll still have to play because again, the one thing I liked too about these schedule changes, like you got the one team getting the buy Like that's going to mean the Packers and the Cardinals got to go full out right for the rest of the year. But this is it for the division. The Cardinals will lock up the division with a win. I think they do right now. So
I agree with you, Joe. I think if it's field goal and again it's underfield goal at a couple of places Fox bet points bet like it's two and a half that I really like, but at three I think I like it as well. I think I'm with you, Joe. Well done, all right, Joe, what's the uh? That was our last game? What's the schedule here? For the college Football podcast?
That's what we're doing.
Well. First of all, it's been a glorious college football year for the first Scott Bok and let's just put that out there. But then some really fun games last week. Alabama beating Georgia was a fun game, and beating them handily too. My goodness. That Georgia defense certainly ran up against an offensive line wall who heard all week about how they were going to be overmatched. Well they weren't, and Bryce Young had more time in the pocket and played the game of his career so far, so it
was a great game for him. A couple of weeks ago, we had that Michigan game. You know, some great stuff's been going on college football. So this week we're going to take a week off, take a deep breath, and then we're every week here to close the year. We're going to have a bowl preview, so we had think fifteen games the first week or thirteen games and then
fifteen I forget which numbers which. So the next couple of weeks we're going to be going week in at time with the bowl games, and then we get to
the college football playoffs. We'll do a special to close everything out on the national championship game, so we'll do not only picking the game, we'll probably talk a lit litle bit about all the props inside the game and just have some fun and kind of close out the ear maybe look a little ahead too, because there's already some massive coaching changes that have gone on in the college football world. But it's been a fun season. If you missed it, I don't know. I'm questioning your choices
in life. Go check it out, man, get into college football. It's fun.
There's a saying when you have kids, Joe, which is the days are long, but the years are short, right, meaning that like when you're going through it, every day like feels forever, but then you wake up and like the kids are like five years older.
Right.
I feel that way a little bit with this football season, with this college football season, where I felt like every week it was sort of like, you know, all the work that we put in and everything on the betting side, especially just sort of you know, grinding it out each week, going through the shows, blah blah, and then I'm like, oh my god, the season is over, and it just it feels like it went like that.
You guys did a great job.
I certainly enjoyed Bogwin way more than you, but so Bogwin was fantastic. Obviously in the college football side. We're going to keep going here with the NFL Show of course until the end of the season. So for everybody listening, thank you so much for tuning in, Thank you for t ning into the to the College.
Football Podcast as well.
Stick with us here. It's gonna be good. We'll be back on Thursday with our best bets. I will talk to