Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Crows Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is entering week thirteen of the NFL season, which is crazy. We are here to take an early look at the week thirteen NFL lines. Here to do that with me is the co host I will call you Bogman of our college football podcast. Here. It is Scott Bogman again, you know him from the College Football podcast.
Is also co host of the Great in This League podcast. You can find him on Twitter at Bogman Sports. Bogman. Thank you for joining me today. How you doing, Thank you for having me.
I'm doing good.
I mean, you know, I'm a Longhorns fan and there four and seven nine you are, Yeah, yeah exactly.
That's like the hot tub time machine. What's that about? Yeah?
The and then Steelers fan. You know, my dad's I'm from Texas. My dad's will say, by side of the family's from Pittsburgh and they were miserable. So you know, but it's okay because the NFL is still playing and is still like watching football.
So that's all I can do. As a Jets fan, I can say that you know you can still watch the NFL even when everything is going wrong. By the way, the joke about Bagman is I hope you're watching this on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com Slash Betting Pros, which, by the way, you can win a free Saquon Barkley helmet by subscribing and then going to Betting Pros like Complash helmet. That's all you need to do, just subscribe. And I was joking because Bagman is decked out head
to take out, that's right. And Longhorns gear right now, which I'm decked out. You had to tell in like fantas pros and betting pros gear. So that's how I roll. But whatever doesn't matter all right. Early, look at the week thirteen NFL lines. This is at halftime. Actually we were recording this of the Monday night game between Seattle and Washington, so we'll obviously have to do a little bit of guesswork here when it comes to those teams
next week. First, let me remind you about the latest offer from our sponsor that MGM new customers can bet ten dollars and win two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown when you use the code juice one hundred, that's it bet ten dollars and then the NFL team to win the game, you win two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown in free bets that is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington,
d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. All right, bogwin Thursday night game, we have the Cowboys visiting the Saints. The spread right now is the Cowboys laying five. That's the consensus, but there is four and a half. There are five and a half's out there, but right now it's five and the total is forty seven and a half. Any thoughts on this one?
I mean, my instant thought is Dallas in the under because what we saw offensively from New Orleans on Thanksgiving was not great. And Taysom Hill is getting first team reps now, so are they going to go to Taysom Hill?
Is that gonna work? Are we getting Comarica be worse?
Man, it can't be worse.
It can't be worse. Yeah? Are we getting Kamara back?
Are we getting Ingram back or is it gonna be Tony Jones again, who I thought was going to have a pretty decent game and was horrific. So it looked like David Johnson out there. You know, maybe the Cowboys are going to be down Zeke, but Paullard is a great backup. That offense is good, the defense can play a little bit. Obviously, got a little job done Thanksgiving, so they're going to come in a little bit hot in this game too. So I like the Cowboys going away even in New Orleans.
So it's it's obviously Monday, so we don't have everything. Here's what I can say. What we heard today. Zeke apparently practiced in full, which was surprising given that we heard that he was going to be in danger of missing this game. Obviously, the Cowboys are going to be without Mike McCarthy because he tested positive for COVID. We Expectedee Lamb to be able to come back, of course, and Maari Cooper should be back, and as you mentioned,
it should be Taysom Hill. Mark Ingram practiced in full. Alvin Kamara returned to practice but was limited. So we don't know what is happening right now with this game whatsoever I get. I'm, you know, for a Thursday night game. I guess we'll end at you know, at five, around where it is right now. But I agree with you on the under like, that's what it strikes me. Especially with them going to Taysom Hill, there's gonna be a lot more running, a lot more bleeding the clock. I
don't think Dallas needs to go crazy. You know. The Saints defense, despite what we saw from Buffalo's generally pretty strong. So I'm in agreement with you on that one. Let's go now into our Sunday games. Let's start with the wopping Giants visiting the Dolphins. The Dolphins are laying three. The total here is forty one and a half, so pretty low. Obviously, the Giants coming off the big win
against Philadelphia. Not sure if it was the Eagles offense or the Giants defense, but obviously the the Eagles were held pretty much in check. The Dolphins meanwhile, riding high. They're up to five and seven. They're in the playoff chase somehow with this. Their defense is playing well. Two is playing well. Jayl'wadell's playing well. So what do you think here with the Dolphins laying a field goal at home.
I gotta tell you, Dan, I disrespected the Dolphins last week.
I said, if you.
Blitz Cam like you blitz Lamar, he's gonna get you apart. He's a former MVP. He's gonna throw into the blitz, not gonna be able to take him down. Good Lord was wrong. He looked god awful. And the Dolphins defense looks great. And it seems like ever since they've started Javon Holland every single playback there and something that Joe and I have talked about on the IDP Show a little bit that you know, this team has gotten exponentially better. And Holland was a big part of the win against
Cam Newton and the Panthers. He was the biggest part of the win against the Ravens. And this team blitzes more than anybody. Danny Dimes not great against the blitz. So I'm gonna go with Miami to carve up the Giants at home.
It's gotta be right, I mean, And admittedly I thought the Eagles were going to be able to cover whether it was three or three and a half. So maybe I disrespected, right, I disrespected the Giants perhaps too much, or maybe I gave too much credit to the Eagles there.
I think that's more of what it was because I picked the Eagles too, and and you know, our boy Bubba and I kind of said that, you know, we said, hey, look we're both picking the Eagles, so everybody gohe go out and get the Giants, right, So, and that's exactly how it worked out.
Yeah, I agree, though I think the Dolphins all are you know, relatively legitimate with how well you're benching the defense playing. And again, you know Matt Parol, who owes to Daily Juice podcast, we do a last room. He makes fun of me because he calls me a huge to a defender I don't love too. It was just we were comparing it to what it looked like with Chakobe Brissett, and I said, Tua makes the offense at
least a little more competent. Yes, he makes some horrible decisions and he makes some you know, bad interceptions, but overall, the offense certainly looks more competent with him back there. Yeah, I agree with you. At a field goal, certainly, I like it there, so I would go ahead and take it now because I don't see it going under afield I'd be surprised if there was heavy action on the Giants. If anything, I could see it moving up, so I would go ahead and go there. We just talked about
the Eagles. They are visiting the New York Jets right now. They're laying six and a half points. The totals forty five. We do have obviously some question marks here both quarterbacks. Really, you know, Jalen Hurts is dealing with a quote sore ankle. I mean, he ran for seventy seven yards against the Giants. I don't know how sword could be necessarily, but you've got that. You've got some questions at running back for the Eagles, given that we don't know if Jordan Howard's
going to come back. Miles Sanders suffered an ankle injury in that game, so he was kind of not really it was mostly Boston Scott for the Jets. They do beat the Texans, but you do have you know, Zach Wilson sort of, you know, limping around a little bit. Doesn't look like he's one hundred percent here. Maybe Corey Davis doesn't play, So some question marks abound. But under a touchdown here, six and a half of the Eagles visiting the Jets.
I hate this game, doan.
I would take the Eagles just because I don't think the Jets are a very good team and I think Zach Wilson actually makes them worse. I understand that you need to start him to get him experience if he's healthy enough to do it. I understand that way more than starting Joe Flacco. Well, I don't know what the hell everything and there. Even though Flacco didn't look bad.
But doesn't make it, didn't he never does really what he's with the Jets go on.
But he's but he's not your answer. So you know, start, try Mike White again. Let him go out there. You know, That's what I would have done, but you know, I'm not.
Well, they both, to be fair, they were both on the COVID list, and so maybe the Jets even knew that, oh yeah at the time, but they named him the starter before that anyway, right right, yeah.
That was my my whole thing, like, why has Joe Flacco started a game for the Jets?
Oh that is one hundred percent truy, Yes, yes.
Yeah, just go with your youth because you're not playing for this season anyway.
But I don't Philly is such a mess.
They don't like Jalen Hurts, which is weird because they drafted him. I know this coaching staff didn't. But you know, if you don't like him, why are you even giving him a shot?
Right?
Maybe to drive up his trade value for next season or something.
I don't know.
I just think the Jets are a bad team. So I'll take the Eagles and lay the points.
On the road.
Well, it did look like, you know, Hurts until this game had been playing very well, and I realized it was, you know, a very run heavy offense and everything like that. But he was making his throst count. But you know, the way I looked at it, bagman is his young quarterback, Like he's bound to have games like this, right, and again, they should have won that game had Jalen Rager been able to hold on to any of the touchdown well.
And Smith was wide open on those last two plays too, so just throw him the ball.
He's pretty good.
He won a Heisman Trophy, so you know, yeah.
So bizarre I would I would go under a touchdown with the Eagles here. Again, you know the fact that the Jets beat a crappy Texans team really obviously shouldn't mean much. They did not look good in the game, so I would go with Eagles, But I admit that I'm not running out to bet the Eals laying six and a half points at this game, but if I had to go one way, I would go there. Other than that, it's pretty much a stay away from me. How about the Cardinals here visiting the Bears. The Cardinals
are off of bye. They should get Kyler Murray back. They hopefully will get DeAndre Hopkins back. Although Cliff Kingsbury was noncommittal on both, seemed to suggest optimism with it. I expect Andy Dalton to continue to start here for the Bears. I don't know if Justin Field is gonna be back. I don't know if Alon Robinson's going to be back. They obviously have a little bit of an extra,
you know, layoff here because of the Thanksgiving game. So in this game they're laying against seven and a half the Cardinals and you've got the total at forty five and a half. Any feelings here.
Yeah, Cardinals big.
I think the Cardinals are a really really good team this year and the Bears are really really bad.
I think that's.
Simply what it comes down to I think I would lay the seven if Colt McCoy starts this game with two weeks of rest, you know, with the weapons that the Cardinals have against the weapons that the Bears have, and the Bears are a team that is seemingly packing it in. Yes, they barely beat They barely barely beat Detroit on Thanksgiving. That should have been a loss for them most likely. But the Cardinals, I mean, I don't believe any of these Kingsbury to.
OEU like Kingsbury.
Kingsbury has He's in the NFL and he has the best ou quarterback of the last ten years already, So why would he want to, you know, take a step down. So I guess maybe for job security and that type of stuff because the NFL, you know, not for long.
It's what that stands for.
But I'll take I'll take the Cardinals their defense too against Andy Dalton. I think just on that alone, I'm not really worried about what the offense is or how Hopkins, how healthy Hopkins or Murray are, because I think they beat the breaks off the Bears without Murray or Hopkins.
So I'll lay the points. Take the cards here.
So you did say seven, just to be clear, it's seven and a half. Doesn't matter to you though, right?
No?
Like what?
No?
So okay, very good. How about the Vikings visiting the Lions. The Vikings now are laying seven and the total is forty six and a half. The one thing we if we know something for sure, it's that the starting running backs for both teams are not going to play in this game. Dalvin Cook can have missed a few games here with the shoulder. DeAndre Swift almost certainly out here with the shoulder injury. So it's the backups that Shamal Williams,
it's Alexander Madison. What do you think here? Divisional game? Obviously laying seven? But in fact, hold on, hold on, hold on, Bagwin. I think you've been on the show one time before, I think, and I think it was the Vikings, and I don't know if it was ten against the Lions or if it was seven, but I know you were all over the Vikings in that game, if memory serves, Is that right? Does that sound right?
I mean that does sound like me? So okay, but but look the Lions. Uh, you know, the Lions play hard, so it's hard to pick against them. But it seems like every week it's one more piece of that team goes down, you know. And they haven't won a game, but they're pretty good against the spread. So and they're at home here and they had extra rest. So I'll say this, I ain't gonna be betting this game. I'll just say that just straight out. I will not be laying my money on this game at all. I'll take
the Lions against the spread. Give me the Lions at home and the points against the Vikings. I think the Vikings are an exponentially better team, but for whatever reason, they you know, they're five and six for a reason.
Two.
You know, the Lions are zero to ten, but they've been in the last three games that they've played. I think I don't think they're gonna win this game, but I think they can not lose by more than seven, So let's get them. I think this is like a four or five point game.
God.
I the Vikings defense just doesn't do anything for me right now. The secondary is not great and the line, I mean, losing Hunter, losing Griffin, they're going to get run on. So Jamal Williams is healthy. I think they're going to get run on a little bit so I think this is a you know, under and take the home team.
Interesting, okay, because I you know, for me, I thought, I do think that the lines are going to be able to put up some points here, and I realize I'll probably be able to run it, but I think they will be able to pass as well. So I kind of lean the over interesting because I do think that the Vikings are going to be able to put up points here. The Vikings are weird, man. They come out and half the time you're like, this team could put up forty five points if they wanted to right now.
Right they got Kirks Kirk it is Kirk and they're putting up points. You get bad Kirk and they're in the game with whoever they're playing.
But it's also something that like good Kirk isn't like I got good Kirk this game. It's like I got good Kirk on this drive. I got bad Kirk on the next time drive. Yeah, that's the problem that you can never really rely. That's why I can't take the Vikings at this point, because I just don't know who's going to try. I mean, the Vikings obviously are motivated. They're five and six. That is in the thick. Now, you know you got seven playoff teams, that's in the thick.
They this win, you assume they'll come out. But yeah, the Lions just play hard wherever they are, Like, I root for them to get a win. So I actually do think there's going to be scoring in this game. So I actually kind of lean a little bit towards the overend this one. Not crazy, though, you lean a little bit towards the under How about the Colts visiting the Texans. Tough loss here for the Colts. They are
laying eight and a half, the totals forty six. I imagine you're gonna see quite a few Jonathan Taylor carries in this game, given all the talk here about how Frank Rake coach that game. The Texans obviously coming off a bad loss to the Jets. Torod Taylor will start in this game, according to coach. So what do you think here? Bagwin? Eight and a half is a big number, but you think the Colts can cover it?
I do not care.
I think the Colts are the second best team in the AFC right now. They went toe to toe with Tampa Bay, and yes they lost, and they were at home, but Tampa Bay is the best team in the NFL, I think, so at least the most complete team. So I'll take the Colts. I'll lay the points. I think this is a stomping. You know, the Texans are uninspired right now. They've got nothing. They've released their best running back,
you know, releasing Philip Lindsay. I think he was the best RB on that roster left, So I don't know what the hell they're doing right now. In terms of fantasy there's just no one to start on this team either, Like even Brandon Cooks is getting less targets, which brought out there. So I got to take the Colts and I'll lay the points and I'll take the under two.
I will. I will also go with the Colts. The cult. The issue with the Cults that they have this incredible ability just to not put away games like that, like absolutely ridiculous. How they they just can't finish skims. There are times you watch them and they're winning a game by you know, two touchdowns, and then they just take their foot off the gas, which I would worry about
here if the Texans weren't so terrible. And I think that they can do that, and you know, not put their foot on the throat and still in the end cover this game, you know at eight and a half, So I like it there as well. How about the Bucks visiting the Falcons. They are laying eleven. The total is fifty and a half on the spread, so you've got obviously the Bucks. You know, they come back, they win this game. The running game looks great, Gronk looks great.
They probably will get Antonio Brown back here, although there's obviously a little bit of a question mark for the Falcons. They get back Cordero Patterson. That certainly helps the way their you know, offense looks as a whole. Not a dominant performance against Jacksonville or anything like that. Kyle Pitts hasn't done anything in five weeks, so you know, who knows. But a divisional game, Falcons hanging on to the edge
of the playoff race, eleven points, bot win. What do you think I'm laying it?
This is not a week of great games, right, This is a betting week. So you got to pick a side and roll with it. That's what you have to do this week because there are a lot of lopsided games it looks like, and this is definitely the biggest one of them. I'm going to take Tampa Bay lay the points. And I know people are going to point out that look earlier in the year, Atlanta played Tampa Bay Hart and came back on them and put up some points, and I understand that, but they also that
Calvin Ridley they had a healthier team. This the Bucks coming off that buy and putting up thirty eight on the Colts is just showing me that they're at their peak right now. So, especially if Antonio Brown comes back, I think they're gonna steamroll Atlanta.
I'll take the Bucks.
I'll also take the over because I think we will get a little bit of that back door right of Atlanta pushing in the second half because they're gonna scrap the run and just pass. And so I'll go with Tampa Bay, but I'll also go with the Over.
Yeah, I'm with you on both. Actually, Bogwin, I do think that this is a game that Tampa makes a little bit of a statement here, especially like we said, if Brown is back. But yeah, I mean Brady didn't even play that well. They still put up thirty eight points, you know, on a good defense, So it really was
an impressive thing. I think the Bucks get rolling here as well, and I agree with you that I could see the Falcons basically putting up some garbage time points even if they can't eventually cover the spread enough to get to the over. So we're on the same side of that one. This one I am interested to watch here. It is the Chargers are visiting the Bengals. The Bengals here at home are lay The total is fifty and
a half. Bogman. The game that I probably liked the most last week was the Steelers getting the four and a half from the Bengals, which was blown out of the water five minutes into that game. The Bengals are a team that I fade every single time, and they just make me look stupid for the most part, other than that game against the Browns, which I faded them correctly. The Chargers are a little Doctor Jekyl and mister Hyde. Don't know what you're going to get from them in
any given week. How do you handicap this one again? The Bengals laying three at home in the total of fifty and a half.
Why like what the Bengals have done since their bye week is really refocus on the run game. And give the ball to Joe Mixon, who you know. You have Jamar Chase, you have Teagans, you have Joe Burrow, c j Uzama is a great pass catcher, and Tyler Boyd would be in number one or number two on a lot of teams. So the offense is good, but it needs to run through Joe Mixon. Everything works through him. And we saw it against the Raiders, we saw it against the Steelers. How about we see him against the
worst rush defense in the NFL in the Chargers. Justin Herbert isn't playing good ball right now. He's kind of I don't know if it's a ball or if he's been readjusted on or what has been happening with him, but he's been making some bad decisions. I'll take the Bengals and lay the three points at home in the jungle for them, and I'll take the over in this game because I think the Chargers aren't gonna put up points. The Bengals defense is the one thing. You know, they're
very you know, like Kirk Cousins. Sometimes they play really well, sometimes they play really bad. But I like the over here and I will take the Bengals.
Yeah, I mean I lean towards the Bengals as well. I think the big deal is with Herbert. I just feel like it's the offense that he's in at this point. I feel like last year's offense with Anthony Lynn was very cub friendly. This one's a little more complicated, and he's gonna have these days where he looks good and he's gonna have plenty of days where he looks bad. And yeah, I lean the Bengals right now. I don't have a great feeling about it again, just because I
feel like the Bengals. I've constantly felt the Bengals are overrated. So for them to basically, you know, be a favorite against the decent Chargers team troubles me. But at the same time, if I have to go in a way, I am going that way. Let's go to the Rams laying twelve and a half, who at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the total forty eight. I feel like all the quote smart money will be like, well, you
got to back the Jags. I mean, this is sort of what it is like it is every week, but I can never back the Jags essentially, So what do you think you're at twelve and a half.
Yeah, I'm not taking the Jags, so they just the offense cannot put up points their last couple of games here fourteen against the Falcons, ten against the Niners, seventeen against the Colts, since nine against the Bills nine was the win. But they have to stop an offense to win a game here, and they're not stopping the Rams at all. So I would lay the points here. I hate this over, I ain't touching it, but I will take the Rams and lay the points.
Yeah, I'm definitely avoiding the total. I lean the Rams as well, just because again it's really difficult to see how they are going to stop this team, the Jaguars in the end. Even though the Jaguars defense has as a whole play better. They have played better of late, probably last like four or five weeks. But I mean even Atlanta, you know, they put up twenty one. They could have put up more if they needed to. And I do think again that the Rams they need to
win now. They are sliding obviously, so they need to come out. They need to make a statement with both their offense and their defense, and I think they do here. There's a get right spot for them at home so I agree with you. Even with the big spread, I will lay it. How about the Washington football team visiting the Raiders. The Raiders currently are laying two and a half points. The total is forty nine. Again, we are recording this in the middle of Monday night football, so
who knows what happens right now. Washington did just hope I'm not spoiling anything. They did just take the lead on a touchdown here, so you know two and a half. This might be very different when you look at it and you listen to this podcast. But as of right now, the Raiders at home two and a half total forty nine.
Who is making this schedule, by the way, like they've been really good about the schedule. But then you get the Raiders who played on Thursday versus is Washington who played on Monday. Doesn't seem to fair to me. I'll take the Raiders because of that. I think Washington's gonna have less rest. I think, you know, the Raiders at home. Of course, they may be down Waller, but Foster Morrow
is a pretty good replacement. I don't particularly care for either one of these defenses, but I think if you give Derek Carr a little bit of time to prep
for this game. He can carve somebody up. So this Washington football team, I almost said it, defense has been playing much much better since their bye week, so they have been a little more what we expected in the beginning of the season versus what we actually got, which was the worst pass defense in the NFL, and you know, just bad matchups for them.
But I like the Raiders here.
I think their defense isn't great, but they can bow up every once in a while. A lot of replacement on that Washington offensive line, particularly at the center spot there mentioned today.
I think they're down the third or fourth.
Guy here, So I'll take I'll take the Raiders at home and lay the two and a half the total. I don't I'm not gonna have a good lean either way, but I would go under.
Does it matter to you whether or not Darren Waller plays in this game because he is deemed weak to week with the strained it band or whatever it is. If he doesn't suit up here, I think that's what it is. That right? Did I make that up something?
And it sounds like something for my car, so.
I may have made it up entirely, but I did see he was weak too weak today, So I mean, but again, he may play this week. And again they did not think that it was particularly a bad injury or anything like that. Yeah, something with his knee, ye or something.
I mean, it does matter. Obviously, Waller matters. But I'll say I like Foster Moro as a replacement. You know, yeah, he's a good receiving tight end, not the greatest blocker. But I also like what they've been doing on offense more going to Josh Jacobs and relying on him more. I don't know why they went away from that so much in the beginning of the season. Jacobs is a good back, and I know he's a little banged up and all that stuff, but if he was that banged up, then give him some weeks off.
Don't give him the all ten times. Never understood that.
So I like the Raiders in this game. I think they go to Jacobs more. You rely on Waller in the passing game less, and uh, you know, Washington gets way less rest than they do.
So give me the Raiders and you did see again Deshaun Jackson get more involved here in this game, which they really need to do to be able to open up the field a little bit more, at least throw a couple his correct You gotta show you got It's a show me. We always say, you know, give me a right, give me, give me a show me. You know pitch in baseball, right, just yeah, show me change up, just so we know that you have this in your arsenal, so I can at least have it in the back
of my mind. That's what they need to do. They did in this most recent game. And again coming off that big win there, let's go to the Ravens visiting your Steelers. The Ravens are laying three and a half. The total is forty four. I mean, bogwin, it's your team. I again, I thought that they would cover that spot. It's a Tomlin spot, the underdog. Nobody believes in us. We the Bengals embarrassed us in the first game. Let's show up here, and they were getting a little hell
there on defense. TJ. Watt was placed on the COVID list today, so obviously that's going to be a big loss, assuming that he can't come back from that. The Ravens, you know Lamarthro's four intercepsions, but they still win the game. What do you think about this one?
I think that the Ravens are going to destroy my Steelers this week. And I do not say that with any joy, and I hope I'm wrong. But the Steelers defense got blueprinted against Detroit in that overtime tie. They ran the ball and it was all because this wasn't their game plan going in. Jared Goff got hurt, and they said, we'll just run it all day, and they did, and they ran for over two hundred yards. And then the next week Steelers give up a ton of yards.
And this weekend Cincinnati, they give up a ton of yards to Joe Mixon. So I expect Lamar and Freeman and Murray and you know, probably a pitcher two to Duverney and Marcus Brown and those guys. I expect them to run the ball down the Steelers throat, especially if TJ.
Watt is not there.
So you know, the Steelers defense has had a lot of injuries, but even Devin Bush is bad. He is not healthy from his knee injury. You know, Joe Shobert is okay, but he can't be in six places at once. You have one of the best playmaking free safeties. Ryan Clark talked about this today and he's basically a fifth linebacker because no one up front is making the tackles. So it's a mess in Pittsburgh on the defensive side right now, which we've known it's a mess on the
offensive side the whole year. But you know, you're bad on both sides of the ball. It makes for a pretty bad team. So give me Baltimore and I will lay the three and a half and the under because the Steelers.
Are I, you know, the total. I don't have a great sense of yet. I would lean the undervad you, but I don't see how you avoid the Ravens here, Like, I mean that the Steelers look absolutely terrible, Like just everything about them looks terrible. And you're right their defense, of course, but their offense also looks completely out of sync. And it's not like you have any alternative to go to because he can't go to Mason Rudoff or anything like that. But I mean, Ben looks it's.
Just people want them to go to Mason Rudolph. I was like, did you watch him play the game? He is work like I'll take fifty Prothlisberger all so hey sold I and Rudolph.
Yeah, because again we saw in the Chargers game at least like he's capable of sort of, you know, making things happen once in a while. I don't really think Rudolph is. But still at this point, you know, with as bad as the Ravens looked in that game, I still think they come out and I still think they kind of boat race the Steelers a little bit in this one. So I agree with you here. How about the forty nine Ers visiting the Seahawks. They are laying two and
a half. The total is forty six and a half. Again, they're playing right now. I mean, you know, we're just at a halftime here, Bogman, but watching Russ does not look back. Okay, hopefully he does not look back at all. He looks terrible. They look terrible. So I imagine that it's not going to be two and a half by the time people listen to this. I could be yeah, yeah, I.
Think you're right, dude.
This uh, this Seahawks team, we know they're bout on defense.
They have been all year.
Even though Jamal Adams got his second pick of the year, you know, uh, and he is now past Vince will Form in career interceptions at four. By the way, so congratulations to Jamal Adams. But yeah, Russ doesn't look right, and ye know the defense is bad. It's kind of like what we were talking about with Pittsburgh, right, we know the defense is bad, your offense doesn't look right. Carson has done for the year. They haven't figured out this run game yet. You gotta take the Niners. They're
on a heater. They did just lose their best player for a h two in Deebo, and that is very, very unfortunate because Deebo is the most fun player to watch in the NFL. Like you know, I loved him coming out of South Carolina as happy he went to the Niners. So the Welsh and I could both love him, right because he's a huge Niner fan. So, but I think Eli Mitchell and Jimmy g has been playing well. Iyaka is back in this game. They're gonna have to
utilize kittlemore. Kittle has to play better, but I think they have enough juice on offense and defense. Like you said, I think this number is gonna be bigger in a day, so by the end of the week, it's gonna be pretty big. So I would get in on the Niners.
Now, yeah, I agree, and you know without Deebo. It's weird with Deebo because he has been such a huge part of their offense over the last especially the whole year. But the last two games is two catches. That's so bizarre. He's just doing it all on the ground as a running back, right like NonStop, and he really does add
a layer. Thing with Kittle is. I was joking about it with some guys here, just like it would be so much better for his you know, for people who play fantasy for his fantasy value, if he wasn't such an elite blocker that he's just I mean, you just watch him in any of this run game. But their run game is working. Garoppolo is playing well. Now that could end on a dime, you know, but they're just playing way too well right now. I think they're on a roll here. They sense that playoff Berth. I think
they're going for it. I think they win pretty easily right now. The Seahawks. I mean, maybe they do win this game, Bogman, they're down right now, but you know, regardless they have I'm impressive.
Yeah, Russell would have to show a lot in the last quarter and a half here or whatever. We have in this game for me to be convinced that he is back, because he had one huge play locket when he was absurdly open, just no one was around him. And you know, one one touchdown drive that's just not gonna get it done. Washington's defense been playing better, not that good though.
Yeah, no, I agree with you. Sunday Night football, Broncos are visiting the Chiefs. Chiefs are laying ten. The total is forty seven bogwin.
What do you think, Well, I think I'm not touching it is what i'd say at this point in the week, because everything adds up.
The Chiefs look good on.
Offense, they look good on defense, but for whatever reason, you get them in this rivalry game in particular, and these teams play each other tough. When the Broncos are good, the Chiefs play them tough. When the Chiefs are good, the Broncos play them tough. So I won't mess with it. If I had to pick, I would take the Broncos and the ten going to arrowhead the over, I mean in a Kansas City game, I just still I'm gonna take the over, which.
Doesn't hit a lot.
Correct.
You know, you feel like.
An idiot if you don't take it, you're like, of course, Kansas City scored thirty five in the first half, what was I thinking by taking this under? So I'm more confident than that. But I'll take I'll take the Broncos and lay the points just because I've seen this game play out this way.
Yeah, I think the problem again with the Chiefs is well, I'm joking about the overs because yeah, you can take the under and then it you know, four seconds in, it can be over because of just how quickly they
can score. But I agree that the spread just for a divisional game like this, for two teams that know each other well, with the Chiefs again still not being like back, like they're not fully sort of what they were at their apex or anything like that, even with Edwards a layer back ten just seems too much for me at this point for a Broncos team that you know, just kind of whooped on the Chargers a little bit, you know, and the divisional game, it strikes me as
too much. I'm not running out to bet at Bogman right but if I had to right now, I would take the points here, the ten points and just sort of, you know, hope that they keep it close to this point.
Are the Chiefs? Are the Chiefs the best team in the AFC?
Yeah? Maybe I don't. I don't want to.
I don't.
Who else would it be? Bogwin, If you say the.
I think it's them podcast, I think it's them, the Cults and the Bills right now, that's okay?
Well, i'd pick between, so you wouldn't take the Patriots? Who leads us into our next game? The Patriots on Monday Night Football visiting the Bills. The total is forty four. The Bills are laying a field goal at home. Bogmin, talk me through it.
Yeah, another game that I'm not running out to bet. I'll say that I'll take the Bills at home here, and I think we've seen a little bit better. But it seems like with the Bills they take two steps forward, one step back, two steps forward, one step back.
Is this their step back game? Or is this the you know?
All right, Look, we're tired of Mac Jones, so we're gonna just blitz the crap out of him and make him beat us. You know, we're gonna stop the run. We're gonna make Mac beat us. And if they beat us, then fine, I mean they just lost Trey White. That's huge for the Bills. You know, Trey White the best second in a good secondary, so that is a big piece that they lose. But the Patriots aren't beating people on offense or beating people on defensive skillect.
And maybe they will. They'll stop Josh Allen.
We saw the jag stop him, right, and I get it, But I think it's more about Josh Allen stopping Josh Allen and making bad decisions than it is about being schemed up because if he gets rolling, there's nobody that can stop him. It's just like Patrick Mahomes right, he is the guy that stops himself. So I think Buffalo wins this game at home. I don't like it, not going to touch it right now. If we get more news about stuff later in the week, maybe I'll make
a a harder line decision. But right now, go to my head, I take Buffalo and I take the under, because both these defenses can play well.
I would take the under for sure. That is the way I lean at forty four, and I lean the Bills for a few reasons. Number One, again, I do not think the Patriots are quite as good as they have shown. I mean, I think that they've had some soft opponents, and again, you face Tennessee, you can't say they're soft opponent by any means. But obviously they were playing without anybody on offense here week last week and just watching you know, Mac Jones, and I was listening
to it. At one point I had to leave my house for I don't know, like twenty minutes or something, and in the middle of it, I'm listening to the game on the radio and they're talking about how Mac Jones went through a period where he looked really confused, like there was like a couple of drives in the middle of the game, I think early in the second half or something where he just basically looked like a rookie quarterback where he was overprocessing, he couldn't sort of
do it. And I really do think like Jones has played really well when he has, but he's played well because the game has made so simple for the way sort of they've laid it out, because they're so successful running the ball, because the defense is playing so well. Let's see how that works against the Bills in Buffalo, you know what I mean. As it gets colder with a raucous crowd on Monday night football. I just don't see them going in there and winning that game for me.
So if it's three, if it's less than three, certainly I would take And I think it ends at three. Boggs like, I don't. I don't see this moving. You know, it could move. Have a point, I guess, depending on which way the money comes in. But three feels right even the match team team right. Three. I take it at three. I think the Bills win here and again, so you know, if it's field goal or less, I would be willing to take it. But yeah, I hope. So again you most people know I live in New England.
I married it to a Patriots family. My life has been relatively unbearable for the last like twenty years, so you know, let's hope for my own bristles like that. That's how it goes. Bogwin. I'm so glad you can fit me in. I know you have seventeen more podcasts to do tonight already. It's ten twenty here in the East Coast, so I'm glad I'll let you go to it. Just remind everybody where they can find you.
Yeah, you can find all my work on my Twitter app Bogwin Sports. You go to in this league dot com, check out the ITL Patreon. Joe and I do the Betting Pros College Football Show every single week. We do the IDP Show for subscribers every single week as well. I write an article for Betting Pros every week as well, so please check those out. And yeah, I'm online star as well sports Grid. Like, like Danny said here, I've got eight million podcasts now NonStop.
Do you like my voice? You can hear it all the time.
I do. I do like your angelic voice. But I do appreciate you coming on again. I like talking to you anyway. Yeah, oh of course you do great work. And you know, let's hope there are some winners right now, because yeah, this is this is time for some betting this weekend in these football games for sure. So everybody, thank you for joining us again. The Bogman will be back with Joe on the College Football Betting Podcast, and I will back later this week giving our three best
bets of Week thirteen of the NFL season. I'll talk to you again then