It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia And today it's week four in college football. We're gonna preview all the games for you, and of course there's nobody to do that with better than the one, the only, Scott Bogman right here from in this league. Of course, you can follow him on the Twitter machine at Bogman Sports Bogman. It was an interesting week three.
A little bit of a close call there for Alabama the Juggernauts, so I will take the l on that one. Oh my goodness, that got a little too close for comfort. And a few other teams maybe we have to learn a little bit more about. But overall, a good week from you yet again, So how was your week three for you? Look?
Well, I was super annoyed week three. I'll say that. You know, the Texas game wasn't fun. I mean, they did stomp Rice, but it's not a fun game against Rice. You know, Texas Tech always gives them problems, which you know, hint hint, that might be in the Leans this week. But I was annoyed because I was like five and five, you know, in my article, I'm like, that's just okay.
And the two, the late ones are the ones that killed me.
It was BYU beating up ASU as you had sixteen penalties to three. That'll lose you every single game straight out. And UCLA after beating LSU and stomping Hawaii and getting an extra week off to play President State lost straight up. I didn't understand any of that, But after looking at how well everybody else did, I went, oh, right, you know what, I'll take five and five.
Five and five is okay on this weird week.
So we're gonna get back on track in week four and there's a lot of fun games to go through here.
Man.
All right, well let's take a quick look around too. What were your thoughts on Alabama? Just kind of eking out that victory against Florida.
Look, you know, it's kind of one of the realm of possibility things I put in there last week, was that, Look, I think Bama is they were in mid season form and Florida wasn't and all that stuff, But Florida would probably just preparing for Alabama the first couple of weeks, right, that's probably the only game they were focused on, which why they didn't look good in the other games. We weren't really paying attention to who was in front of them.
They're just looking forward to that game, and they played them hard, and there's a lot of talent in Florida and Bama just wasn't at peak Bama. So you're going to get a close game when it comes down to that, and Bama is. They're not going to every single year put up some historical number, and I think that's kind
of what we were expecting. After seeing LSU put up the best offensive team in NCAA history and then Alabama go right over them, one up them the next season, we thought, okay, well maybe Bama does it again and sets more records. No, it's not gonna happen year after year after year. So Bama is still I think it dropped them from eighty first place votes to seventy nine, so that's all at ding them was one vote in
the polls. So there's still the number one team and there's probably still going to go undefeated, but they're a little more vulnerable than they were last year, which was not at all.
So all right, well, Bobman, let me ask you this question, who is BYU?
I don't. I wish I could cuss on this one.
If I know, Joe, I have no idea who BYU is because I'm just gonna go ahead and say that Week one was the mirage because I thought Week two was the mirage, or I thought maybe you of A got better. Maybe BYU got way worse without Zach Wilson and they beat Utah. But once again, I didn't think Utah played well in that game. So I like, I'm okay losing that game with the logic I used. I still think that my logic made sense. Obviously the result wasn't there. But and they did a wide out and
all that stuff. The crowd was insane for BYU and it caused a bunch of penalties. There many many false starts for ASU and Jade Daniels just look rattled in that game. So you know, you go as far as your quarterback in ninety percent of football games, you know, and Jade Daniels did not look right through a couple of picks. So BYU might be pretty good. I'll just say that. SOA Taki's a great coach. That's what we know.
What about Miami are they any good? Is the Michigan State any good?
Okay, Michigan State's good, That's what I'll say. Mel Tucker has got those guys playing, and I think someone said that as underdogs under Meltucker, who came in there last year, they've won four games straight up as underdogs. Jim Harbaugh from Michigan has won zero games straight up as underdogs for Michigan. Now, granted, they're underdogs way less than Michigan State is, so you have to give him a little
bit of slack on that. But they haven't pulled out and upset victory one under Harbaugh and mel Tucker already has four from Michigan State. Run play, you know, run well, and play good defense and have a quarterback that's not going to turn the ball over.
That's what they're doing right now.
And Miami, now we saw dear King's probably not gonna play this week, so they're gonna look real bad. They're just not a good team this year.
It looks like anything else from week three that caught your eye that you think is noteworthy before we turn the page and look ahead.
Not really, I just you know, I want to bury week three. You allow grave, let's go.
Well, let's move on.
Let's move on, let's go. We're on to Cincinnati. Let's go are here we go. As always, we're gonna talk about the national games, and here are the ones that Bagman has strong feelings for all the fields, as the kids like to say, and let's start with LSU. That's two and a half way favorites on the road at Mississippi State. Uh and of course fifty five and a half is the number. So your thoughts on this game here.
Box this one. Just for a full confession. I don't like Mike Leach at all. I don't like his all offense, no defense bit. I don't think that's ever gonna work. He's been accused of being abusive towards the players.
I don't like that.
He made some questionable comments last season which had a lot of his players transfer.
I don't like him and I never will.
So with that on the table, I obviously am going to like LSU in this game. Mississippi State looked great against NC State, but bad against Louisiana Tech. They lost. They had one point lost to Memphis last week. And it's not like LSU or or Orjron. It's not like I like them, but I'm gonna take LSU at this point because I think they're gonna be able to put points up on Mississippi State because anyone not named NC State apparently can. And I just I think I'm the
most confident in the over. I think the over is kind of low here, fifty five and a half. I think this is gonna be a classic shootout. Mississippi State's gonna score, but LSU can score, So I think it's going to be a shootout. And if it's only two and a half points, I'm going to take LSU.
All right, Let's move on to the next one. Here on the board, Texas A and M seventh ranked is four and a half point favorites against Arkansas ranked sixteenth. Now, Texas A and M did look better last week, but then again, that was no Mexico, So I don't know if you can really take too much of the New Mexico contest against A and M. I guess the question is how good is that Aggie's offense?
Not very is what I would say under Calzada, And this one's in Jerry World in Dallas, so this is going to be at what is it called now?
At and t I just always called Jerry.
You know, man, I can't keep up with any of the naming of ballparks or stadiums anymore. I'm so old. I still call it like, you know, whatever the original one was, whenever it was called first. That's what I call everything now, especially in baseball where they change every year. It feels like I can't keep up my head.
Right at Troy Aikmanfield in Dallas, I think the Razorbacks are going to win this one straight up. And maybe I'm not giving A and M their credit, but like you said, they had one good offensive showing against New Mexico. New Mexico is not a very good team. They're getting a point and a half against UTEP this week, so which my guy Nick likes.
But I that game is terrible. That will be on no TVs.
As it should be outside of you know, El Paso in New Mexico. But I like the Razorbacks straight up. They're eighth in the country in rushing. They're getting two hundred and eighty two yards per game right now, Arkansas is we saw them dominate Texas with the run game, and I think Texas A and M's defense is way
better than Texas. Don't get me wrong there, but I think this is going to turn into a slugfest, and when it comes down to that, I'm going to go with their veteran quarterback Jefferson over Calzada, who is starting his third game for the Aggie. So I think, you know, is a huge nationally televised game for both these teams. I think this one is a game that can absolutely put Arkansas back on the map as far as national contention. So I like the Razorbacks to come away with a win.
Here.
The team that plays about twenty minutes from my house, Rutgers Scarlet Lights taking on Michigan. Michigan obviously right nineteenth their favored by eighteen and a half. That's a pretty big number. I guess. The question is this is this going to look more like the game where they push into overtime last year or more like the fifty two
to nothing drubbing from twenty nineteen. I mean, Schiano certainly has come back and made Rutgers at least more respectable than they were in a few years leading up to that. But where is Rutgers right now? And is this a potential trap? A bit when it comes to this Michigan number eighteen and a half.
I think I think it is and just the overwhelming you know, bets are on Rutgers right now because this number is big, So I think you're gonna be able to I think my favorite thing here is the over fifty two instead of the eighteen and a half, because what I think you're gonna have here is a Michigan team that has put up points. You know, they have put up points. They're number one in RUSSI. Three hundred and fifty yards per game is what Michigan is averaging right now.
And they've played Washington.
In there, you know, and we all know Washington is not what we expect them to be coming into the season, but they're a team that should not be giving up an absurd amount of rushing yards. And this is just what Michigan is averaging and they've actually put together. I mean, Blake korm you can actually use in college fantasy football at this point, because my argument against why I dislike Michigan on all fronts is because I can't stand Jim Harbaugh.
They use too many different offensive players, and they never throw the ball, and they use fourteen different backs. Blake Koram is actually getting the majority of the work for Michigan right now, so I think they roll this one.
I'm I'm with you. I do respect Shiato.
I just don't think he's going to be able to do it this quickly, and I don't think this is a weird COVID year where you know, both teams get to practice less and all that stuff. When we go into overtime, Michigan looks sharp right now. I think I think my favorite is the over. But if I'm betting on that spread, I'm going to definitely be taking Michigan.
And given the.
Points, Tennessee goes to Florida. Florida ranked eleventh right now, they are favoring this game by eighteen and a half. The over under is sixty two bogs. Is this a letdown game potentially for Florida because obviously a very emotional contest last week coming close and maybe Argua we should have beaten Alabama. But is there a bit of a letdown here for Florida in this game? And is there money to be made off of it?
Well, I'll tell you what. The betting public for sure thinks that it is. Ninety percent of money is on Tennessee right now, which is unbelievable to me. So because I look at this line and I go, man, Florida just almost beat Alabama. I thought it was going to be at least twenty points. Well, it opened it twenty and it has since slid to eighteen and a half.
So what I'm doing is I am waiting until Saturday morning to bet this game at the best line I can because if more money is going to come in on Tennessee, this could shrink all the way down to you know, fifteen, sixteen points here. So I'm going to wait until Florida. But Florida. It's happened in Florida so many times. Florida was ranked six last year and only beat Tennessee by twelve. They've had plenty of games where they're the fourth ranked team and the nation like this.
Sometimes Tennessee it seems to me this is the only important game on their schedule. Is we want to play Florida hard. They still lose most of the time. But I'm gonna wait till the end of the week and I'm gonna take Florida because I just think, I think if you're Florida, you can't be let down by barely
losing to Alabama. You have to be inspired by barely losing the Bama and you have to go out there and thump Tennessee because you know now you have to have big wins on that schedule to make the tournament. So for Florida, I think they're going to go out there and I think they're going to rock them. I think it's going to be a tough one for Tennessee, but they seem to climb into this one when you least expect them.
But I'm pretty confident on Florida.
Here, fourth ranked Oklahoma is favored by seventeen over West Virginia University. The number for this one is fifty six. Seventeen is the spread. Do you think this is a comfortable number here for Oklahoma?
No, I don't know how you could be comfortable with Oklahoma, and the betting public is and I understand that. And look, we saw West Virginia loose to Maryland week one. That's understandable why people are on Oklahoma here and they're at home. But we saw Oklahoma go toe to toe with Tulane. They just barely beat Nebraska last week. You know, at any point Oklahoma can turn on, there're a more talented team.
I don't think there's any arguing about that. But with West Virginia beating Virginia Tech, who looks strong, you know, came out beat you n C week one and all that stuff, I know we can't keep doing transitive properties and all that stuff. But I think I'm most confident in the over fifty six in this game just because
of the way Oklahoma's defense has been playing. Sure, they stopped Nebraska last week, but Illinois stopped Nebraska, you know, so it's not like that is this insurmountable feat to stop Nebraska's offense that has been bad for four years. West Virginia is gonna go out there and put points up on the board. I just don't know how when you see what Oklahoma's defense is playing like right now, you can have any confidence in them. So I like the points for West Virginia. I like the over in
this game. I think it's gonna go toe to toe for a shootout. Austin Kendall, quarterback for West Virginia, is a transfer from Oklahoma.
You know, he wants to go in there and get some revenge.
So let's see what WVU has I'm gonna take them in this game.
The last time I had to worry about transitive properties. I'm pretty sure I had a trapper keeper. Uh oh yeah, pretty sure.
Was it the one that Bill Cosby had and came back?
It was not the one from south Park that that guy had, No, it was definitely not. But try to remember if it had like a character or something on it. Probably not. Probably by middle school it's like, no, you can't do the character ones.
So it's always had shapes on them. They had like weird Yeah, they.
Had like designs or like space and things.
Not the same age. Yeah, I think I might have got yours and a hand me down, so yeah.
Probably.
By the way, that reminds me of a bunch of stuff. How she got to pick up last game? Here on the likes Arizona at Oregon. Oregon rank third of the nation, Oregon a massive favorite in this game. Twenty eight and a half points. My goodness, fifty eight and a half is the number. So that's a whole lot of points, Bogs. Do you feel safe here with Oregon in Arizona?
It's not enough points?
Oregon by fifty U of a has only gotten worse since that BYU game. They just lost to Northern Arizona. I have a friend that, my guy Chad, who is a huge U of a guy, just a Tucson guy, loves it there. He texts me after that game, a new all time low. You know, when you lose in Northern Arizona, it is rough in the streets FCS school. I like the over in this game. I think this is you know, and that was what I was most accurate on last week was over unders, opposite of my
NFL calls. But Oregon, I think is gonna get the majority of this fifty eight and a half. Ninety two percent of money is on Oregon right now. So I like Oregon. I like the over in the game. I expect this to be like a you know, forty nine to fourteen game something like that. So you know, at that point you're winning by thirty five and you're hitting the over.
I think that's easy money.
All right. So those are the likes. Now let's go to the leans. These are the games that Bogman has less strong feelings about. But still we're not gonna let you down. We're still gonna talk about him and break them down a little bit. See if we can find some things that we maybe like a little bit. But let's start with Marshall at Appalachian State. This is not the game that I thought we'd be talking about today, Bogs.
It's a Thursday game.
It's a Thursday game Appleationia State minus seven. The sixty number is the over under. Your thoughts on this contest, Yeah.
That's what We're only talking about it because it's the only game on Thursday, so it is nashally tell me yeah, but still actually four games, but this is the only nationally still.
I don't how many times Appalachian State we're going to talk about this year, but.
Well, look we just talked about them last week because they are right, you know, there are strong app State is usually the strongest chief team, one of the stronger G five teams. But I like Marshall plus the points in this one. I'm a little confused on why with so much confidence on the under, eighty three percent of people are betting the under right now, this game isn't closer to fifty to fifty because the line is small.
It's just a touchdown.
So Marshall hasn't played defense a defense anywhere close to Appstate, but they've put up forty points in every game. I think this is going to be a point for point game. This could come down to the last team with the football. So if it's going to be that close and it's going to be low scoring, as you know, the better scene the betting public teams to think it's going to be, then I just for me, I think I got to take the team getting the points, and I like what
Marshall's been doing so far. Now, they did lose to ECU last week, which was a terrible game, but they let up three touchdowns in the last seven minutes, so they were comfortably leading most of that game.
So I do still think they're the better team. They just choked it at the end.
If Superman's weakness is kryptonite, then Bogmins is certainly the gold helmet of Notre Dame. Notre Dame brink twelve minus six and a half right now favored against Wisconsin, ranked number eighteen. This game is gonna be played at Soldier Field, So Bogs, you want to take a shot this week at Notre Dame or just run the other direction. Okay, that says it all.
So this one, this one has confused me because I thought the line was moving, I was reading the wrong thing. But for me, I'm gonna end up taking the under in this game is what I'm gonna do here.
I don't want to.
Forty seven and a half, So that's where you're gonna go the under On the forty seven and a half.
I'll go the under because look, Wisconsin should run, run, run the ball all over Notre Dame, right, and Notre Dame can play offense, uh, but they can play a little defense too. I just I haven't been able to get them right. So I'm not gonna touch the line, especially with Wisco giving the six points. I'm gonna take the under in this game, and then after that I'm gonna run away from it.
You're right, fair enough, all right? Boise State nine and a half win, favorites at Utah State the over under a sixty nine and a half. Do you have any leans on this one?
When I look at this line, it really seems to me like Boise State is gonna be a bit underrated. But they are one and two, but the two losses are against UCF and Oklahoma State, which are some tough teams. I think they're the better overall squad, but Blake Anderson has those guys at Utah State playing some really good offense and all like. There are two games this week that bothered me because my gut tells me one thing, but the betting public heavily tells me the other thing.
This is one of them. Ninety percent of money right now on Utah State. So that's why when I feel like, Okay, Boise State nine and a half, that seems like a pretty good line. They could win by two touchdowns. And then I see most of the money on Utah State, I go I must be missing something, so that one kind of takes me out of it. I'm gonna I'll take Boise State, but not with any confidence.
I will be putting zero dollars on that game this week.
All right, So we hit Bogwin in the Let's hit him in the heart here. Texas Tech at Texas Texas seven and a half point favorites. The number is sixty and a half here on this one.
This is eazy. You gotta take Texas Tech in this game. I mean, being a Texas fan.
Outright either, Look, wow, I think.
Texas should win. Texas is a more talented team.
But we just talked about what happens when Tennessee plays Florida. Right, So when Tennessee plays Florida, they get up to play that game every single year. They are never a better team than Florida, but they will beat them on occasion, and they will beat the spread almost every time because they play them hard. Texas Tech Texas is their super Bowl every single year. It took Texas with Sam Ellinger, their four year starter last year and on sidekick and
a blown calling overtime to beat Texas Tech. So they should have lost last season. I think going into this game, I'm more confident with Casey Thompson as a quarterback than I was with Hudson Card. I'll say I'm probably more way, way more into the over sixty and a half in this game than i am anything else. But I think if i'm if I'm getting points for Texas Tech, That's what I'm going to do. But the talent and everything in my head says go with Texas. They're the better team.
But Texas Tech plays them tough every single season. Man, it's always a tough game. Remember Michael Crabtree, that was Texas Tech, you know. So I remember where I was, I remember where I was.
When that you remember what was on your trapper keeper though, that's the question.
Well, I didn't have a trapper keeper, Joe, I had a five star.
Oh well, not all of us grew up in the fancy neighborhood in Arizona. Some of us were slumming it with trapper keepers.
That's right. No no velcrow for me. I had a zipper sign.
Thing is when the when you pull the velker thing and the piece of attached to the other part came off with it, and you're like, well this is now it's not going to work ever, and then it never closed again.
You try to know that it doesn't know that.
Oh yeah, that's that's real first world problems right there. Last one here Iowa State. Iowa stateed right fourteenth in the nation taking on Baylor the over unders forty seven. Iowa State is favored by seven in this game. I'm surprised there's no half either way. But you got a strong seven there. That's that's the thing that gives me pause there. So your thoughts on Iowa State.
Look, this is another one along with that Boise State winning, although this one is way worse for me because I look at this game and I go. I mean, this is Iowa State, no walk, isn't it. But there's something I don't know because the betting public is on Baylor a little bit more.
I think I wrote Iowa State, but I meant Baylor.
And they're on the under too.
Yeah, and they're on the under. So my gut says Iowa State wins this one in a romp. But everyone I know and trust everything I look at, and I went through a bunch of them. You know, my guy Nick over and see if you winning edge, he's taken Baylor two. And I'm just I don't understand why there is a little history here. They went into Ames and played Iowa State real tough last year, and I feel like there Baylor's a better team than they were last year.
But I just think that Iowa State has kind of been asleep at the wheel so far this year, and.
Maybe that's what people are thinking.
But I think they're gonna wake up to play Baylor, So I think they went in a rump. But everything I look says Baylor. So I'm just gonna stay away from this.
Game, all right. There you have it. Make sure you get all of your lines too. From bettingpros Dot com head over to Betting Pros right now. Of course, check out Bogman's latest work there, and you can also check out all the different lines from all the different houses. That's what betting Pros is all about. It allows you to go make the best ways you possibly can at the best place to get the best odds that you want.
That is the beauty of betting Pros. Anything else here, Bogs that you got your eye on here for week four before we call it a day.
No, I'm just I'm excited to, uh see what you.
Can't say no and then say something. Well, Lan Harris used to do this to me every show. I'd say any final thoughts, he say no, and then he would say a final thought, So give me actually fun.
Look, I like Dan, so Dan and I are going to be on the same page here. No, but I'm looking forward to a lot of these games. I want to see how I want to see if my gut is right on some of these games, or if the betting public is right. Of course, you know you always want to see if you're smarter than everybody else, right, But I'm really interested to see how Florida bounces back
after that loss. They can't play it. You can't be in national title contention with a loss and then another loss to Tennessee, so I think they should come out and pound Tennessee. But like Texas Tech and Texas, Tennessee gets up to play Florida. So I think I'm most excited to watch that game this weekend and Arkansas can Arkansas put themselves. They will put themselves on the national map if they beat Texas A and M.
And I would love to see it. So let's go Arkansas.
I know you would, but I think you're right. That Florida Tennessee game, that's the one to keep a close eye on and see if there is that letdown, which is inevitable when you have to get up to play a team like Alabama and then turn it around like that. But I'll ass that's why they play the game. So we'll be back again next week to do it all again. In the meantime, you can follow on Twitter of course at Betting Pro's NFL and check him out at Bogman Sports.
That'll do for us, but the story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman. I'm Joey P. We will see you next time.
Kids,