College Football Week 11 Preview (Ep. 127)

It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me, Joey p Joe, Pieza, Pia, That of course is Scott Bogman, and it's you, and today it's all about college football. That's right. I had a week off so special. Thank you to Bogman for being able to hold the fort down without me. I know that was probably very easy to do, but I thank him anyway. And of course we're gonna recap what happened in week ten in college football and look ahead

It's just that's right.

Yeah, Oh, anything over a week is too much.

So we're right at the cutoff here.

Yeah, sixteights, I think, yeah, yeah, exactly. So you know I missed you too. Luckily my guy Nick was able to fill in. We had a good time talking about these games. Didn't like being hosts, though, I like being analysts on these more than hosts, So you know, back to normal.

I'm happy, Yes, back to normal. And as you could see, also, he's got the Vince Young jersey hung up. Now he's got the fancy soundproofing. Look at you getting a big.

Time on me, Scott trying to be a professional. You know.

Let me know how that works out. I'm still trying as well. But in the meantime, let's do a college football show, and let's first talk about what we learned for week ten. I gotta tell you, when I got back from my little mini vacation with the children for a couple of days, I did catch some of the highlights from this Perdue game. And one of my favorite plays that I've seen all year in college football was that little trick play that they ran. Where are they fake?

These days they are they're the big game hunters, is what I've been calling them. They take that number two Iowa, they take that number three Michigan State.

So they're a lot of fun to watch.

And they got another opportunity this week against Ohio State, so we'll see if the big game hunting streak can continue here for them.

I think that's a lot to ask, but I don't want to blow what we're doing next to the show and want to tease that around anything else that you learned for Week ten from watching those games.

I mean Bama Ohio State, and since he all survived another scare, you know, since he just like ever since everyone's been complaining about them not being number two in the cfpeople, they have played like garbage. So it's still winning and I think they're up to five now if I'm not mistaken, So they're up there.

Bama.

Look, Bama is still very very good, but they're not the you know, bullet roof Alabama team that we've been used to over the last few seasons. So, you know, Georgia seems to be that team in Ohio State. Ohio State had beaten everyone by twenty one points since the Oregon lost and then played you know, Nebraska hung with them that whole game. And uh, that's my fault. It's because I put them in my in my article this week. So I'm gonna take the run of that this week.

I was just gonna say, football guy, I'm a football guy. Every time you fire a head coach is like an automatic w whether it's the NFL, whether it's college. It's crazy. You need to you know what Baylor should do. It's just fire head coach every single week and they'll be undefeated.

Baylor is so much better than TCU, though, Like it's just it's one of those things where it's like I know the trend, but come on, it's Baylor and TCU.

I know it's a road game, too.

It didn't work the part of the reason why I had a you know, two games below five hundred week here, tied for my worst week at three and seven, but still over five hundred for the year. So we will get better and I still trust my lodge. You know, a lot of those games I missed by a hair here and a hair there, so you know, it is what it is. Everyone has those weeks. But we will get better this week for sure.

Well, look, I wasn't here, so it might as well never have happened.

So that's right.

Yeah, So if I'm not here, it doesn't exist. That's why I always say, let's talk about the games that Bogman likes this week for a week and leven. Let's start with North Carolina at twenty fifth rank Pitt Pitt is six and a half favorites and this one the number seventy three. Pretty big number here, Bogs. Do you think this can live up to the hype?

Well, I stupidly took the on the UNC Wake Forest game last week, and I'll never do that again, So definitely take the over seventy three here. You know, they went over one hundred UNC and Wake last week. I don't think they're going to get to that total this week. But PIT is seven to two against the spread. UNC is four and five, but they're six and three to playing to the over. Pitt is also seven and two playing to the over, which is why I think this

It's just say it's a giant number. So if this goes over, this is what everybody should be watching because it's going to be entertaining football.

First name man, it's gonna be on.

You know you want to watch that or do you want to watch Baltimore and Miami.

I think I might rather watch Pitt.

I do like watching Lamar, but I'm tempted. I'm tempted with the seventy three.

That's why I have two screens in here. I can watch both.

What happened?

You know?

Picture and picture was like a thing when I was growing up as a kid. I was gonna be the big technology. And then I remember having a TV in the early two thousands that had it, and now you never see that anymore. I don't understand why can't you split four screens on a big seventy five inch TV? Now, I don't why you can't do that.

I mean, maybe you can, but I feel like the maybe something with the cable companies in the box. It's just not something they offer. It's like they want you to buy more TVs.

Somebody at the TV company got together with somebody over.

TVs so cheap. Why wouldn't you buy them?

You know that's true, But I mean space maybe that's why why if I have a giant TV, why can't I just split the screen four ways? Anyway, these are problems that need solving, also problem these are first world problems. These are definitely people number nine Michigan at Penn State. Penn State really favored in this one by half a point.

They're at home.

I don't care. They're terrible. No, I'm sick of Penn State. I don't care anymore. Forty eight and a half. They're Penn State. So let's still get a bowl game invitation. But they're dead to me. I'm over it. Are they dead to you? Here? I mean, can't we just take number nine Michigan and call a day? Here?

I mean, that's what I'm doing.

You know, Michigan seven and two against the spread, Penn State six and three, though they're good against the spread, but this one's easy Michigan for me. Penn State is a one dimensional offense, twenty fifth of passing one hundred and seventeenth and rushing. Michigan is ninth against the pass this year. I think that's the big disconnect in this game. Homefield advantage is enormous for Penn State, though, So I do think this is going to play closer. I mean,

I think it's going to be close.

And I wouldn't say Michigan is great on offense and Penn State is still really good on defense, but they've been.

Trying out new stuff. Man. You know, they tried new personnel. They tried to pass the ball a little bit more.

They've been mixing in JJ McCarthy, the backup quarterback as well, just to get something different, which I don't really like mixing the quarterbacks. But they're trying things, which is very unlike Harbaugh and Michigan. And that's why I like them in this game. I think they win this one, but I do think it plays very, very much closer than you expect. But I mean, if you're watching this game, you gotta watch Shahan Dotson man. He wide receiver for

Well, that might be the only fun thing to watch when you're watching Penn State nowadays. Number one ranked Georgia is twenty point favorites at Tennessee the numbers fifty six and a half. Is this just as simple as Georgia and the Under?

Yeah? Yeah, And it's for me.

It's Georgia and the Under moving forward until we see them not do it. They control the pace of every game this year. This game is gonna be no different. Georgia has a cupcake in the FCSAR Charleston Southern. So after this game again Tennessee, so they're not looking forward to a tough matchup or anything. I think they pound Tennessee into the ground. So I would take Tennessee and take the under fifty six. It gets a little dicey, but you know, because I guarantee you the first half

Perdue at number six. Ohio State Ohio State little, as you said, a little little close last week with Nebraska Perdue coming off another big w there. So is there any scripture can write for anything differently? And do you think last week's performance from both teams is going to impact this week's wage?

Not really, it will well, I mean it'll impact the wagering for sure, because most people are on Purdue here. But you know, look, Ohio State didn't beat Nebraska against the spread because I picked them. We all know that, right, So we can put that to bed. But I know that Purdue has been the big game hunters, taking down number two Iowa, number three Michigan State, and I get number six Ohio State. But the Buckeyes they got beat early against Oregon. They had their scare last week when

All right, Let's move on to Miami too, and a half point favorites a f Florida State. The number for this one is sixty one. Neither of these teams good against the spread, So what do you do here in this one?

I mean, look, and I picked Miami last week and it didn't work out, But you know, both these teams suck against the spread.

But I think Florida State straight up sucks.

I think they're right, Miami's dealt with some injuries, but they put three straight wins together against much tougher competition than FSU was played. NC State Pit, Georgia Tech. Those are hard teams to beat. Miami beat them all. They're only two and a half point favorites here. I know things can get weird in a rivalry games, so I'm definitely not gonna put this one in my article or anything because of the wackiness of rivalry games here.

But I think Miami wins this one pretty easy.

All right. Michigan State eighth ranked at home thirteen point favorites against Maryland. Something to prove here this week for Michigan State, you think?

I think so.

They got to respond after coughing up to their undefeated season to Purdue. In all four of Maryland's losses, they've also lost against the spread, and I don't see this game being much different, especially as a road game for the Terrapins. Michigan State does have the dead last passing defense in the country one hundred and thirtieth. A lot of that is probably because teams are playing catch up against them, right, and that can't be overlooked Because I've

So what about the sixty one and a half in this game?

I play the over. I play the over on that for sure.

All right. Next is eleventh ranked Texas A and M two and a half point favorites at number twelve ranked Old Miss fifty five and a half is the number. These are two teams I guess theoretically are close to each other. But what's your take on this game?

Yeah, I have this one that likes to and I hate that I'm gonna go with Texas A and M. But I think I have to. This is gonna be who can control the ball in the pace of this game. I think at Texas A and M, I think is going to control the pace at the twenty seventh slowest pace in the country, which will pressure All Miss into mistakes. But Texas A and M has lost some games even in a slow pace. They controlled the pace against Arkansas, still lost that one. I mean, Arkansas plays to a

Hur TCU at tenth ranked Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is thirteen point favorites. Fifty four and a half is the number in this one. Oklahoma State good against the spread on this year, TCU not. Is this the letdown game for.

TCU, absolutely letdown spot, one hundred percent. Okay State seven and two against the spread, TCUs two, six and one, and I look, I'm just gonna go ahead and doubt them again. And you know, I've done this a couple of times and it hasn't worked out for me.

But I'm fairly.

Confident this one is gonna work out for me. Absolute leftdown spot for TCU. After the big win against Baylor, I'll be taking Okay State here as a I don't think TCU will be able to catch lightning in avolved twice. TCU is still down their top running back, Zach Evans. I think Okay State is just a much better team. They won't be looking ahead. They got Texas Tech next week.

All right, So those are all the likes. Let's move to the leans here and we'll start with first Oklahoma, fourth ranked in the nation, five and a half point favorites on the road at Baylor ranked eighteenth coming off their losses we talked about. So after that, is this where you know Baylor gets checked yet again here? Because one would think here with fourth rank Oklahoma that this should be a pretty strong performance there from Oklahoma against Baylor.

I mean, I don't like this game.

I think it's gross Oklahoma, like you said, they're bad against the spread. Baylor's been pretty good against the spread outside last week. I think that Baylor was looking past TCU obviously the struggles that TCU has had this year.

They fired their head.

Coach, they the first time starter and Chandler Morris, all that stuff, and they're looking forward to this game. I think this could be the week that Oklahoma gets exposed. They're nine to zero, but have had so many close calls it's crazy. But statistically this isn't the matchup to end OU streak. Ou has a great passing offense, Baylor's below average and passing defense, and Baylor has a great rush offense and OU defending the run is what they do best. So the matchup on paper is bad for Baylor.

As far as laying my own money.

Down, Mississippi State at sixteenth ranked Auburn. Auburn at home is five and a half point favorites. The number is fifty in this one. I'm not a big bon Knicks guy, but do you think they could just do enough to get to this fire and a half number.

I think you look at this and you go, this is definitely Auburn. But I think I look at this and I go, I'm taking the over for sure.

Fifty points. I'll take the over.

Both these teams played to the under more often, but the average score. If you took the average offensive score both these teams, this game would be a fifty eight point game. Defensively it would be forty six, So you're asking to score five more points then they usually give up two SEC teams, two SEC teams that play specifically Mississippi State much better on offense than they do on defense,

Play the over in this game.

Well, it's what you've all been waiting for. Seventh rank Notre Dame five and a half point favorites at Virginia sixty four and a half is the number. Scott Bogman, you are the worst when it comes to Notre Dame. Let's go Seanna. You are the best in life and in sports. You're my favorite person. You know that. But in terms of Notre Dame. Let's call what is It's been rough? So what do you want to do with them? In Week eleven?

You too, I think I have to take him here. So this is going to be a lean.

But Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong is very questionable, very very questionable, and even if he plays in this game, you got to assume that he's not one hundred percent. And he's been I mean, his name has come up in Heisman talks because he's been so good. He's a really good running quarterback, but he's been doing it passing this year. So he's been He's had an incredible season, but the

Could say that about Penn State also, but yeah, I think the under sounds about right to me. I think I think we're pretty safe there on the under in this one. Last one in the Leans, Washington State at fifth rank Oregon Oregon fourteen point favorites in this one fifty six and a half. Is that fourteen too big of a number? Box? The Oregon is.

Three and six against the spread, so I just really, they really haven't had an impressive game outside of the Ohio State win. Washington State isn't good, but they just beat Arizona State, who you know, I think is better than them. They only lost the BYU by two. They beat Stanford, who beat Oregon and really haven't been bad

Another team that responded after their coach left.

I think that Oregon should beat the crap out of Wazoo, but that's just not how these games have been going for them. So I'm gonna take Washington State, but I'm gonna put this in the Leans for sure.

I go over fifty six and a half is what I would say.

All right, last one here, actually no eight.

That's is the last one.

That is the last one. I thought we had one more, but we don't. My goodness, time flies when you're having fun, Scott Bogmin, but it could be more college football. Make sure you head over to Bettingpros dot com. We've got all the consensus lines there from all the different houses, so you can make all of your wagers in different places and get the best possible odds you can get anywhere.