Charles Schwab Challenge: Odds, Best PGA Bets, and One-And-Done Picks (Ep. 703)

of the Charles Schwab Challenge. We'll talk about the course, the field, the odds, We'll tell you who we're betting, and we will make our weekly one and done picks at the end of the show. But let's start with a quick recap of the PGA. Scotty was eleven under par over four rounds at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina.

His margin of victory wound up being five shots, which made it seem like an easy victory, but Scotty and John Ram were tied for the lead at nine under par as Scotty finished up this front nine on Sunday, but then Scotty stopped the accelerator, carding Birdie's on the tenth, fourteenth and fifteenth holes. And Rom ran into trouble on the so called Green Mile, Quail Hollow's difficult three hole finishing.

Rom lipped out a par put on number sixteen, then found the water on the par three seventeenth and made double bogie. His title hopes were pretty much dashed at that point, and his double bogie in the eighteenth was just salt in the wound. Scotty shot in even par seventy one for his final round, a good number given the difficult scoring conditions. But Scotty really set himself up for the wind with a spectacular finishing stretch on Sunday.

He was five under par over his last five holes excuse me on Saturday, five hundred power over his last five. Scotty drove the green on the par four fourteenth hole and knocked in a three foot putt for eagle, thenny berdie the fifteenth, seventeenth and eighteenth. That gave him a three shot lead over Alex Norn going into the final round, and Scotty caught some good breaks along the way. He was using a replacement driver all week after his usual

driver was deemed non conforming. Rory McElroy had the same thing happened to him, and Scotty missed some fairways with that replacement driver. He got lucky with one of his misses on Sunday, he pulled his t shot on number two way left. It hit a card path and took a big balance. It actually set Scotty up with a clear look at the green and an easy little wed

shot in He burdied the hole. Not that there was anything lucky about Scotty's win, but it makes it that much harder on the field when the best player in the world is getting some occasional breaks. Yeah. Scotty gets his third major before his twenty ninth birthday next month. His other two wins and majors were at the Masters. He'll try to get his first US Open win in his first Open Championship win this summer. Bryson, d Chambeau, Harris English and Davis Riley finished in a three way

tie for second at six under par. Tough week for a lot of the big guns. Rory McElroy, who had such a good track record at Quayle Hollow, He finished plus three tied for forty seventh. Defending PGA champs Ander Schoffley finished one under tied for twenty eighth Ludwig Oberg, Justin, Thomas Brooks, Koepka, Hideki Matzi, I all missed the cot bo I. I thought Quail Hollow was a good venue for the PGA. It was tough but fair. Charlotte got

a lot of rain early in the week. We thought I was going to play long, maybe soft, but the greens were still nice and firm for most of the tournament. This was decidedly not a birdie fest. What were your takeaways from Scotty's winningt Quail Hollow.

up at as long as he stays out of jail. This, uh it kind of it kind of just looked like he was in a zone and and where anytime anytime people tell me, oh, he's like Tim Duncan, he's really boring, but the fundamentals are there and he's so solid even though he's boring. I was like, are you watching the same game I am, because this is one of the best ball strikers I've ever seen in my life, and I'm enthralled every time I watch him play golf like

it breaks bad breaks. Scotti Scheffler is even keel, but even he has I've seen him snap clubs over his bag and frustration. I've seen him spike his hat when he wins the PGA Championship and let off an explictivef Yeah. I mean it's this guy is far from boring. He's one of the best iron players that's ever walked on this planet and we're calling it comparing him to Tim Duncan the big fundamental get out of here with that.

This was a clinic. Scotti Scheffler did win easily. It got close on Sunday because John Ram made a charge. Everybody else was just kind of playing second fiddle to Scottie Scheffler. It was all Scottie all week long, especially once he turned home and shot a sixty sixty, sixty six, sixty five on Saturday, five under his last five two under through the Green Mile. Excuse me, that's insane. He made that course bend at the knee, and nobody else

could do that. Like even John Rahm, who made that charge on Sunday, couldn't keep it together five over on the Green Mile on Sunday when he had all the momentum going his in his favor and it was still Scotti Scheffler. Ho hum, business as usual. Another another Major,

another win. He's just winning everything he looks at and he's not even doing He's not even letting them really get that close to him, because if you're tied after nine holes, he's still got nine more to try to keep pace with a guy who doesn't make mistakes, and when he makes mistakes, he doesn't compound them ever, So good luck to the rest of the field this week. It just seems like this guy is just on an all time run, and it's the evidence is pointing in that direction.

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a corporate sponsor. Colonial is not terribly long by PGA Tour standards, but it demands accuracy, demands a delicate touch around its firm, fast greens, and it usually requires players to navigate some win We're talking about a golf course in Texas, after all, so it's a par seventy measuring seven two and eighty nine yards. Players won't use the drivers often on Colonial as they will on some other courses. They're no par fours over five hundred yards. Saw several

such long par fours last week at Quail Hollow. Five of the twelve par fours at Colonial measure less than four hundred and fifteen yards, but with a lot of narrow, tree lined fairways and dog legs, there's a premium on accuracy off the tee. It's important that players set themselves up with a good angle of approach to go. Flag hunting, short iron play and wedge play are going to be important this week. These are small, fast greens, They're hard

to hit. It's going to be a challenge to hit these greens, especially from out of the snarley Bermuda rough. Now Colonial lures players to sleep with two easy holes at the start. There are only two par fives on the course, but one of them is the five hundred and eighty one yard first hole. It's a birdy opportunity, so is the three hundred and eighty four yard second hole. Then players run into the so called horrible horseshoe holes three, four,

and five. They're three of the four toughest holes on the course. Three and five are two of the longest par fours on the course, and number four is a two hundred and forty eight yard par three. Davis Riley is the defending Charles Schwab Challenge champion. He finished fourteen under par last year, five shots better than our guy, Scotti Scheffler and Keegan Bradley. Emiliano Grio won here in twenty twenty three. He finished eight under par and beat

Adam Shank in a playoff. Sam Burns won in twenty twenty two he was nine under par. He beat Scotty Scheffler in a playoff. That year, Jason Kokrak won with the score of fourteen under par in twenty twenty one, and Daniel Berger won here twenty twenty, the first tournament after play resumed following the COVID delay. He finished fifteen

under par and Burger beat Colin Morricawan a playoff. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper eighties on Thursday and Friday, touching the low nineties Saturday and Sunday. No rain in the forecast for the tournament, but we will get some win. It's gonna be blowing ten to twenty miles an hour according to weather dot com throughout the tournament. Sounds like the course is going to play firm and fast. What do you make of Colonial.

there's gonna be some birdy opportunities. Even though it's not an easy course. The winning scores typically worse than fifteen hunder par at the end, which still means you got to shoot sixty six, sixty six and so on, like mid sixties all four days to win this thing. It's gonna be fun to watch these guys try to avoid double bogies from the trees because a lot of guys

are going to be in the trees. I think if you find the fairway here, it's a second shot target park, target practice type golf course with a lot of birdy opportunities. But these are the third narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour, averaging twenty seven yards wide. And when it comes to experience, there's only been one first timer to win this tournament in the last thirty years, and that was Davis Riley last year. So by and large, guys need to see this course a few times before they have a lasting

success here. Obviously, Scotti Scheffler is a Dallas native, and there's quite a few Dallas natives in this field. I kinda do give a little bit of a lean to those players because Texas golf is kind of a different animal. You deal with wind, You don't deal with a lot of terrain, but you deal with tree lined fairways and very very fast bent grass greens. These greens are going to be a problem again. Scotty Scheffler plays better when the greens are faster. The tougher the conditions get, the

more the cream rises to the top. So I don't know what we're gonna do. We have to pick somebody to win this thing and hopefully it'll pay off better than last week.

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Robert McIntyre, JT. Post In and Harris English are plus four thousand, Seewoo Kam, Aaron Raye, Keith Mitchell, JJ Spahn and Davis Thompson are plus forty five hundred, and Davis Riley is plus five thousand. The same old Scotti Scheffler dilemma beau, do we dare bet on him at such short odds? Or perhaps the better question would be do we dare pass on Scottie Scheffler this week?

Scheffler isn't one of them. We also said this about t PC Craigranch a few weeks ago where he won by eight, and so yes, you should bet on Scotti Scheffler. I'm just not sure that plus two fifty is the way to go. I think we better pay close attention to the live lines on Thursday, especially if he gets a late tea time draw. Somebody goes out there shoots

sixty three, sixty four, it could happen. Then you start to see Scotty in that plus five hundred plus six hundred plus seven hundred territory, then I'm smashing the button there. If you have live betting in your state, that's where I'm going because plus two fifty, I mean, obviously he's gonna be live to win here. But that's a coin flip. That's saying you expect Scotty to tee it up and win half the time here when he's never won here before.

It's just a value proposition being a smart better. And if you bet on a little bit on a few other guys and Scotty wins. It's not that big of a loss. You're not putting all your eggs in it somebody else beside Scotti Scheffler. You're just saying, Hey, if Scotty Shuffler is gonna win this, I just don't want it to sting me as bad where we kind of got screwed by a major, all these great golfers competing with Scotty and end up losing to Scotty by five

strokes this week. Isn't like that this week. You can kind of take your measured picks and just I mean obviously hope Scotty doesn't win, or bet Scotty live if he starts off slow. It just seems like that's the best value proposition for a smart betters to go in there expecting Scotty to make you hurt again, Like he's going to hurt us again, but we need to make sure that he doesn't hurt us as bad as he did last week.

his last two events by combined thirteen shots. He hasn't won it Colonial yet yet, but he's been top three in each of the last three years, including that sudden death playoff loss. What about any of the other players with fifty to one or shorter bo does anyone stand out to you as a possible contender here?

five hundred. I'm not interested Hideki plus twenty eight hundred not the best fit. I'm going to go all the way down to plus three thousand, Maverick mcneelly playing great golf. He was briefly in the top ten official World Golf rankings because he's on quite a top ten streak this season. MATV mcneely's game has been great, his ball striking has been much improved, and we're talking about one of the best putters on the planet right now riding hot, and

those are good odds. That's a guy who can actually see win this tournament in spite of everything else round him. MAV McNeely is the first value I actually see on the board at plus three thousand, so I'll start there.

win in twenty sixteen and three second place finishes. But we should also note that Speed missed the cut here in twenty twenty three and was thirty seventh last year, and he just missed the cut at the PGA so maybe not the best trajectory for Jordan Speath, even though he is another Dallas guy.

It boggles my mind that he's had any success at Colonial before with the way he hits the ball off the tee. But I think it's more of a concern of his approach game. Honestly, I don't see him hitting it close enough on these little greens to make a good score out here.

hasn't been real close to any victories. And as you said, that's kind of the case with Tommy Fleetwood two, whose game would seem to fit here, but maybe more for a top twenty than for a win. JT. Postin is kind of interesting. He's been playing well. He's finished top twenty five and four straight events, including a fifth at the PGA, and he has kind of an interesting track record at Colonial over the past seven years. Post In has three top twenties and four missed cots, So it's

kind of all or nothing for Posting. And I don't know, boy, it seems like Colonial should be right up to Seawou Kim's alley. He's accurate off the tee, good with his wedges and short irons, but in eight career starts at Colonial, Seawou is only finished inside the top fifty once. So for whatever reason.

Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak are plus six thousand. Ryan Girard, Mackenzie Hughes and Lucas Glover are plus sixty five hundred. Bud Coley, Akshay Battia, Harry Hall and Torborne Olison r plus seven thousand, Kurt Kittyamas plus seventy five hundred and At plus eight thousand, Sam Stevens, Alex Smalley, Lee Hodges, Kevin Y, Tom Kim and Taylor Moore. Is there anyone you like from this group?

Cup candidacy. And it doesn't have anything to do with that. Mike Kim last night commented that my swing had really good slotting. So I'll take I'll take the compliment from from the from the PGA Tour pro. Even though I was looking for him to kind of help me with fixing my swing, he said it looked good.

And so far this year his approach game has been atrocious. So I'll let you bet on Brian Harmon. And if you want to make him your one and done pick, if you haven't burned him multiple times already, I would encourage that.

two weeks. He's played this event twice and was third here in twenty twenty three, although he missed the cut last year. What about intriguing long shots bow anyone in eighty five to one or longer who might be worth a flyer?

great golf this year. One and twenty to one. Mac Meisner he finished high here last year and he's been playing good golf this year in his first full time season on the PGA Tour. One hundred and twenty to one. I'm gonna take my shots. I'm intrigued by seventeen year old Blades Brown one hundred and fifty to one's he's a decently long hitter for his size and age, but he's also very accurate, and he makes a ton of

birdies because he's always in plays. He's kind of like your little Scotti Scheffler in waiting, where he's the seventeen year old version of Scotti who's really good at finding fairways and getting it close on approach. I think that that's a fun pick at one hundred and fifty to one to go to see what the kid can do out here.

terrible season either. I'm surprised he's ninety to one. I'm intrigued by the aforementioned Nico Etriveriat one hundred and twenty to one. He's he's short but straight off the tee, and he's a good potter he is. And Paul another guy who just it seems like the oddsmakers haven't caught up on him yet. Sammy Vallamachi ranks thirty fifth and strokes gained total twenty third. Strokes gained an approach tenth in strokes gained putting, He's one hundred and fifty to one.

Scotty to win. It'll be fun to see Scotty win another one, but I'm gonna get my licks in on a guy who's already won this year and he's still not getting any respect.

Emiliano Grio, I'm taking him at ninety to one, also a top twenty including ties at plus two point eighty going with the horse for the course, and then small outrights on Nico Etcheveria at one hundred and twenty to one and Sammy Vallamachi at one hundred and fifty to one. Now for our one and done picks. Last week, Bo, you had Bryson de Schambeau at the PGA, tied for second, earning you more than one point four million dollars. I

had Rory McElroy. He was bitterly disappointing, tying for forty seventh and earning me forty nine and ninety dollars in sol.