CFB Week 4 Breakdown with Scott Bogman and Thor Nystrom (Ep 205)

ride that over again for Kansas this week. But Thor, you gotta be doing pretty good watching your Jayhawks year. How's how's Week four treating you so far?

Thursday and Friday games. We have six, but only five are on the slate. In terms of betting, I believe Illinois plays like Chattanooga. Yeah, so there's no real line in that game. So start out with Coastal minus two at Georgia State the over and that one is sixty one and a half. We got WVU minus point and a half on the road at Virginia Tech. That one has kind of gone back and forth. Virginia at Syracuse Syracuse is minus eight and a half the overs fifty two and a half in that game. That one is

on Friday, Nevada air Force. Another Friday matchup, air Force a twenty four point home favorite. I guess Nevada Nevada has looked terrible forty five is the over in that game? And Boise State fifteen and a half point road favorites on the road against UTEP forty five and a half?

little bit better than people think. You know, people are having a hard time getting it out of their head. Them getting upset by old dominion in that first game. Yeah, And I think it's just they're not bad. Yeah. I mean they almost almost upset Virginia last week, you know, for instance. And I think All Dominion's gonna win this week handily too. But we'll get to that later on maybe. But yeah, I mean, I've not been impressed with West Virginia on any of my viewings. I came into the

season lower on West Virginia than other folks. The one thing that West Virginia has shown that they can do decently well on offense this year is generate explosive runs. But when the passing game isn't at least getting the short completions, that bogs down too. They have to be completing the passes to get teams away from from starting to stack the box against some that Donaldson kid just came out of nowhere. The problem has been West Virginia's passing offense has not been as good I think as

some people had hoped. JT. Daniels, who has been run out of his last two starting jobs. He has not refound the five star pedigree that came out with, and they don't have a really good receiving core. There's been a lot of drops with West Virginia so far this year, so I question whether they can pass the ball effectively enough against West Virginia to open up the opportunities to get those chunk runs disincentivized Virginia Tech from putting people

in the box, et cetera. Virginia Tech that what they're best at. It's their defense. They struggle a little bit on offense, of course, but if they can play the low scoring, grinded out games, I mean, that's what they want to do, and I think that they're going to be able to get that here. I also like the under probably, like you probably think that my adjusted total in the game is forty one and a half, it's

fifty two and a half live. So to me, I'm seeing more of a low scoring game that Virginia Tech pulls out at the end of the game. My adjust side on that game is Virginia Tech minus three point eight. So I have the other team favorite. So I like Virginia Tech to pull you know, the small upset. I won't consider an upset, but I think Virginia Tech is gonna win the and the you know, like I was alluding to the sharps are on Virginia Tech and Mass In that game. The Sharps are also in mass on

Georgia State. You know the game that kicks off. Oh, it looks like the exact same time. I hate when they do that on the Thursday nights. Give us give us a split.

just separate them a little bit. They even did that on Monday Night Football, by the way, with those two games starting in the middle of each other.

Coastal Carolina in this game. You know, you have a three and oh team against an O and three team, and yet the majority of the money is coming in on the oh and three team, even though the more

tickets have been bought on on Coastal Carolina. But the Sharps were also on Georgia State last week when they they definitely didn't cover I'm trying to remember who they were playing, but the shar The Sharps seemed to believe very much Charlotte to st Yeah, so they were on them, and I think they might have even been on Georgia State the week before as well, and we had talked in our discard thing about how Chris Reynold's coming back

change the equation for Charlotte. So maybe you don't blame the Sharps for not knowing he was going to be back by It seems like that's a team where the Sharps have been higher on them throughout the season so far and remain so now that sharp's very clearly, you know, I mean, you know, not all of them, you know, I mean, you know, however many there are, I'm sure it's not completely uniform, but by the numbers, that's where the money is coming in on on Georgia State. But again,

Georgia State hasn't looked great this year. Definitely not as good as we thought they would be, you know, I mean, like I think some people were hoping that they could sort of emerge near the top of that sun belt. You know, we we had seen the growth of that program under Sean Elliott, and they were bringing so many guys back and stuff like that. But the quarterback hasn't looked good in the limited exposure that I've gotten to him.

There's been some accuracy, a version there and when the passing game is not going, the running game is played down. They also haven't played as good on defense. It's the reason that they're on three. They also have injury concerns in this game. It's there's too many guys to list. But Georgia State has like five key contributors that are questionable right now, and I don't know if they're gonna play or not, or if they do, are they going

to be compromised, et cetera. Coastal Carolina was the team that lost everybody over the offseason except for Grayson McCall. But you know, we see what they've done in the past. You were just sort of in the early season trying to get sort of a read on how good that team is. Now, we'll have a better idea coming out a Thursday night. But I like Coastal Carolina more heading

in than Georgia's State. But you know, again, just because of what the market's telling me and my experience with this, I'm not going to bet that out of respect for some of these sharp players, but I would lean Coastal Carolina.

It seemed like, you know, it opened at Syracuse minus eight, and I was talking on the Sunday Show with Thomas, this thing's going to be double digits in a blink, and it actually was like it toggled up to like minus ten on Monday. But it's weird because there's been a little buyback since then. And I don't know who's betting on Virginia. I don't know what you could have seen of Virginia to this point to be confident in them. Virginia has very clearly taken numerous steps down since the

end of last season. Lost the coaching staff, They lost their entire offensive line, a couple of them to graduation. The rest of them just up and left. You know, the center went to Michigan and etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So you had to you had to replace the coach, Jeff, You had to replace the entire offensive line. The defense already wasn't very good. You were just sort of hanging your hat on the idea that they had a star

quarterback in Brennan Armstrong and then four NFL receivers. Well, the problem so far is the offensive line is so leaky. On the Virginia side, Armstrong can't even sit back there and survey for the receivers. He's getting pressure immediately. They're running running game, which wasn't good before, it's still not good. And so it's like this one dimensional offense who is being extremely handicapped by the offensive line that they're playing behind.

It has taken, you know, sort of taking the wings off of the aerial attack. And then on the Syracuse side, you tell me how Virginia is going to defend this offense. I don't know how they defend either the running game of Schrader and Tucker. I think they're going to run all over them. I also don't know how Virginia is gonna defend the sideline of sideline passing game, which Syracuse did not. I mean, they had the dominant run offense before.

Now they have the sideline to sideline passing game as well. I don't know how Virginia is going to defend any of it. My ad justed line on this game is Syracuse minus twelve point eight. I don't need to me personally. I don't even think that goes far enough. If I was to send this line, it would be more like Syracuse minus fourteen minus fourteen and a half. If you can get Syracuse in the single digits, absolutely by the ticket.

that's a little closer in the tickets than normal. Auburn minus seven against Missouri has a massive amount of cash. Georgia Southern minus ten versus Ball State as well in unlv at Utah State minus two and a half has a big amount of tickets.

to see it's it's it's definitely in play. Uh Jeordia Tech. They're a team that doesn't do anything good. But the thing that they're objectively the worst at it's defending the run. That's what you see. It's by far what UCF does the best. Uh you know, I mean UCF has. The quarterback is very much John Rey's plumbley, very much in line with the quarterbacks that how do I put this?

Gusmells On fetishizes he's like sort of in the same bucket as like a Nick Marshall, where it's like, you know, I mean, you know, like they they you know, I burnet Cam Newton for the one year, but like with you know exactly it's it's it's a guy with who can scramble, who can also he has a little bit of arm strength, and his biggest weakness by far is accuracy. Gus has always been to work with those guys.

The defense gets on their heels and then that's when you open up the passing game. So you can sort of solder over some of the accuracy limitations just by getting the defense on their heels and all of a sudden, we do the quick pass off to the left, you know,

et cetera. Gus we talked and you know in the previous show about how Gus had some very weird play calling tendencies against Louis that may have cost UCF that game, But that was a game where UCF was trailing by a possession or whatever for a large part of it. You wouldn't anticipate that they're going to be trailing against

Georgia Tech. So the game script that you need to get the blowout would seem to be right there for you where because once UCF gets that double digital lead, that's when they become crazy scary because now it's the sprint back to the line and they're run and run and running, et cetera. They don't have to put John Reeve's plumb lee back in the pocket and ask him to survey, which is what they did way too much against Louisvillan. Again, in my opinion, that gave the game

away through that they match up well here. But this is a very big number, especially when you're not crazy confident in UCF. But there's no chance I would bet Georgia Tech in that game. If I had to bet, I would definitely be leaning in UCF.

to be their coach next year. I understand all that. I also, you know, we talked about this before, but Brian Harson's game plan in the last game against Penn State was one of the dumbest things that I seen all season. It was even dumber than Gus letting Plumby throw thirty three times in a close game against Louisville where Penn State's defense they really really struggle tackling. They're

they're tackling conversion rates bottom ten in the country. And Auburn did not give the ball to the guy who is the hardest to tackle on their sideline, Tank Bigsby, touched the ball eleven times in that game. It just made absolute no sense. Yeah, the game was just getting away from Auburn, and Harson seemed to be panicking more and more as it did. This game. You know, we talk about like the game scripts and what that facilitates. You would not expect Missouri to be able to ambush

Auburn in this spot. Missouri has bad quarterback play Number one. The receiving room is not as good as people wanted it to be. Yet, you know, they had signed Luther Burden, the five star receiver. I think people thought he'd come in right away and be like the college version of Randy Moss. He's not playing well so far. Like I mean, he's playing and he's getting some catches, but like you know,

on a personal basis, it hasn't been the best. That the routes are clearly not totally polished yet, the ball scales need a little bit of work, et cetera. The rest of their receiving core is not that great. It's a bunch of cast sass from other schools or else guys that were stuck you know, on the depth chart like earlier in their careers, et cetera. And then the running game they I mean, that's what last year they funneled all the touches to Tyler Bade, both in the

running game and also in the receiving game. Tyler Baty, of course, is now on the Baltimore Ravens that Missouri now has gone to this like they're rotating like three different guys in It's Nathaniel Pete and then like two other kids, two other lower profile kids that they didn't sign in the portal. I don't love that offense. I don't love their offensive line either, and I certainly don't

like Missouri's defense. You would like to think that that Harson now going back to the Auburn side, that Harson is going to listen to all the criticisms over you know that he's been hearing for the last three or four days, not about him personally, but about game planning. Get the friggin' ball to Tank Bigsby. If Tank Bigsby has twenty or more touches in this game, I'm telling you Auburn is going to cover. I do. I do like Auburn for all those reasons. My line is also

closer to Auburn minus ten. Auburn's defense is really good. That that hasn't changed there, and unlike Penn State, they're reliable tackling. Penn State might have more dudes, you know, in terms of athletes and stuff like that, but overall over the entire body of work. Auburn has been at least more reliable with their run fits and then converting

the tackles. Missouri doesn't have the singular athletes that the Penn State offense had where, yeah, you know where they could start out running people once they got into space between Singleton and a couple of those receivers. Missouri doesn't have guys like that. So I like Auburn to control that game and to win by double digits in a get right game for Brian Harson that he badly needs. It's not just that the context of the short term.

If you look at the rest of Auburn's schedule after this Missouri game, it is about as grizzly of a schedule as you're going to see, you know, for the last eight games or whatever it is. Brian Harson needs this game to keep his job. He I don't think he'll get fired if he loses it, but he's going to lose a whole bunch of those last eight games. So this is a must have and they know it. I do like Auburn in that one. The other ones

for me are more leans or else thought experiments. I guess I would say I have thought about I almost don't even want to admit this one. This is one of the bets that stinks. So it's not just to hold your nose game. It stinks so much that I don't even want to admit publicly that I've been thinking about betting on this team, and I actually still might.

It won't be in my column, but I actually might have a bet on this team live and again, of trepidacious to say it, but I'm absolutely considering betting on Arizona State against Utah. I can't believe I'm saying it, But where the line is going.

for her at the beginning of the season. Doesn't excuse the EMU thing at all, and it turned out to be the h what would you call it, the anvil that broke herms back in this case where it didn't really seem like the guy that hired him, the Ray Edwards whatever or Ray Anderson right the ad whatever his name is, he didn't really care about the scandal so

much as losing to EMU. You know, like he just let Herm survive that thing until they lost the EMU and then it looks like Anderson fired Herm Edwards when he was literally walking off the field.

My dms are open, Please send it to me. I was looking around mostly because I'm too lazy to go case by case beyond last year. I can tell you last year, I wasn't too lazy to accrue those numbers. Last year it was even it was like there was like twelve instances of this or ten it was something like that, but it was five hundred against the spread. It was like six and six against the spread for

the team. Of course, Nebraska last week. Talking about the Sharps being wrong, they were wrong on Nebraska last week. All the Sharks were on Nebraska last weekend that game, they they were They had a ticket bonfire in the second court early in the second quarter of that game. It was over Nebraska. You didn't get the bounce up performance with Arizona State. We'll see if we get it.

It's certainly possible, but I think that the real point, at least with recent history, until I can get some historical data if anyone else is a crew to my working theory on this is don't don't don't. Don't rotely go one way or the other of just assuming that the team that just fired its coach is going to continue to be awful, nor should you consider that they're going to play way up the next week. It remains.

to give. It seems like a reaction to Oklahoma smoking Nebraska last week, even though that doesn't have anything to do with this game or people wanting to be out on Arizona State. And look, nobody loves Utah more than me. Nobody was banging the drum more for Utah. Nobody liked Utah more In the opener against Florida's still passed that. I didn't get the cover in that one, But I do like Utah as a team. This doesn't have anything

to do with Utah. This has to do with the line going way above what it should be just because of the circumstance of the week, when we know at least over the last year and a half with the data, it doesn't affect it one way or the other. I mean the right around five hundred. As far as the week after you fire or your coach, I would absolutely lean Arizona State. With where this line has gotten. They tacked like eight points onto that after Arizona State fired

Herm Edwards. HERM Edwards is not worth eight points. It has gone above what it should be. But I haven't bet it yet. I need to get some you know, the you know some to plug my nose. But I absolutely might bet Arizona State hard. Lean on Arizona State.

And then Washington versus stand for Over sixty three and a half, hard on the cash, not so hard on the tickets. So you got any good lien on a total between these four games?

outside and the short game. But they've gone even more towards, you know that way by by bringing in this air raid offensive coordinator. They can move the ball through the air a little bit. Not a great team, but they can move the ball through the air a little bit. And then Miami last week, you know, maybe this line there the total. Maybe it started out a little bit depressed because Miami scored in the single digits against Texas A and M.

A and M has a good defense and they're still moving the ball on Obviously, they had the struggles within the red zone. They'll have to figure that out against better defenses. But I still trust that offense to move the ball. They have a good offensive line. They have a first round NFL, first round NFL draft prospect at quarterback. They have a lot of guys on the ELTs. Even without Ristrepo, they still go three or four deep in

guys that are dangerous, you know. In their receiving core, they have two tight ends that might play in the NFL, two different ones. And the running back room now has gotten quite good since they've gotten Henry Perish. You had him to Knight and and some of those other guys. Some of those other guys, you know, it's sort of you think of like Swiss army knife and having different utilities. Before that's all they had. Now you had Parish to that whose skill set is a little bit more fleshed out.

You allow the guys behind him to do the situational stuff that they're good at. Remember last week when you were talking about A and M about how Auchain's game had played a little bit down with out Spiller. Could Spiller, could you know he could handle the load and do do that sort of stuff. Miami didn't have that guy before, but now they sort of do with Parish, a guy that can handle heavy usage. So I like that offense. I think Middle Tennessee's offense probably better than people think.

And Middle Tennessee's defense ain't gonna put up any sort of a fight, So I, you know, I definitely like that one the over the Western Kentucky game two. My system loves that one.

The first couple of games, the offense wasn't quite as explosive as we'd like, but again he was learning the system and it's gotten a little bit better, a little bit better, a little bit better. I think this is a game where they go absolutely ballistic. FIU does not have the bodies in the secondary to be able to match up with Western Kentucky across the formation and FIU on their side. Western Kentucky defense, of course, has been

no great shakes this year. They you know, they gave up what twenty five points to an FCS team, and and last week against Indiana India, they did hold Indiana down to at the start of the game, but then the one drive they needed to stop them, they couldn't. Indiana drove the length of the field three minutes left and you scored that touchdown then got the two point conversion. I think FIU will be able to put up some

points against Western Kentucky as well. I was leading the Western Kentucky side earlier in the week because Vegas put out a bad number. It was like Western Kentucky minus twenty six or twenty six and a half when it open. The market justifiably bunched Western Kentucky up to you know whatever. It is now like a thirty thirty one point favorite. Yeah, my, just a line on that is thirty two point four. But with the line movement the way that it has,

I can't bet Western Kentucky anymore. I also can't I'm certainly not gonna betting on FIU. The play in that game for me would be the over for sure.

two and a half is the over. Number ten Arkansas, number twenty three Texas A and M. Texas A and M is a home favorite by two and a half points, kind of right in line where you're at as well.

played before was against Louisiana Tech. They didn't necessarily need them to beat Louisiana Tech. This game far more pressing, especially against that slow mesh that that Wake Forest does. How do you defeat the slow mesh. It's blowing it up at the mesh point, right, It's it's getting that immediate pressure with your defensive line. Well, that's what Clemson does the best of They have the best front seven in college football. And I say that knowing how good

you know. For instance, Georgia's front seven is et cetera. But Clemson has four different guys that are going to get drafted high starting along that defensive line. They have multiple rotational guys in the defensive line after that that are going to be drafted, perhaps even in the middle rounds. Then they might have the best lineback in college football in that Simpson kit. So they have all kinds of

talent up front. They have disrupted that slow mesh in the past, and it totally screws up that the timing of that wake Forest offense. The reason that the wake for is the slow mesh that it discombinedbulates other defenses. Again, you take that away. If you can disrupt that, you have to hurry up the quarterback, hurry up the running back. They could drop the ball. They can make bad decisions from there. The routes of the receivers aren't able to

fully flesh out and flow route. So we'll see about that. I do think Clemson matches up well. Sam Hartman has only been back for a couple of games since coming back from that illness. I just think the seven number is a little bit too low. But there's some of these unanswered questions that I have, and I can also say I know that Wake Forest is the sharp side so far predominantly, that's where the money of the sharps

have been going towards that way. So because of all, you know, sort of my questions about it, I sort of talk myself out of betting on a lean so far on Clemson. But if I do bet that one, it'll be Clemson as long as that number stays at seven. I'm not interested if it toag goles up to seven and a half. If it goes to six and a half, I'm definitely buying a Clemson ticket for sure. So we'll we'll just see the way that that one goes. The Florida Tennessee one, I can't touch the side because first

of all, I don't trust Florida. Second of all, Tennessee is beaten around two Patsy's and then the other game when they played a legitimate opponent. They probably should have lost. That they were down on Pittsburgh for most of the game, and then I had to come back to.

and then you were. You kicked the walking boot and he was back out of practice today. I don't know if he's gonna play either. But like you know, it's the college football injury thing. It's a whole nother can of worms that we don't have the time to get into. But the fact that they don't have to report the injuries at all, I mean, not even accurately.

durability questions the past three years. Really when it's really weird to watch Florida's defense, regardless of who the coaches were, Mullan, the assistants, NAPI, or now, every time Ventro Miller is in the game, Florida's defense plays up. Whenever Ventro Miller is not in the game, it plays down. That much is irrefutably true. So if Ventro Miller is not playing against Tennessee, you like the matchup with Tennessee's offense against

Florida defense. If Ventro Miller is playing for Florida, you would like Florida's defense in that matchup a little bit more, especially if Tillman isn't playing. But my number is really close to what the Vegas number is. I'm not showing any real discrepancy at all. All Yeah, it's too close to call. And I also don't know about these key players, what's gonna happen with them. My system, though, I will say, leans heavily towards the over of this game, but again

that's not counting et cetera. Tillman if he ends up being out, which does compromise that that Tennessee receiving court because when he plays, they got three studs out there, it's really hard to defend them. So right now, I'm definitely not going to play the side no matter what. No matter what I hear, I will consider an overplay. I would love to hear that Tillman is going to play and that Miller is not going to play, and then I would get real confident in it. But I

just don't know that yet. So I'm waiting on some information there. In emigaanst Arkansas, I'm staying away from that one. I don't have. I don't have a good read on either of these two teams. I've tried to fade both of them. So far, I've gotten closed, but no cigar. I tried to fad Arkansas and the opener against Cincinnati. I thought Cincinnati had a real shot to win that game outright as a six and a half point underdog, and because of the circumstances in that game, Arkansas not

only ended up winning it but ended up covering. I think they won by seven and covered by half a point. And then A and M last week, you know, like I tried to bet Miami plus six and a half, and even though Miami actually had a good offensive game, they also had a good defensive game, they still failed to cover that game because I couldn't punch the touchdowns and once I got into the red zone. So I don't feel like I have a great read on either

of these teams yet A and M. I do. My system has A and M favored by four point two points, so I guess my system would slightly lean towards A and M. But I'm definitely not gonna be touching that one. Baylor Iowa State. That's a really interesting one, especially with where the market has taken that line where it opened as Baylor minus one or one and a half and now it's Iowa say minus two and a half or

even three at a lot of books right now. That's it makes you scratch your head a little bit because I don't know any sharp that thinks at full strength both these teams that Baylor is not the better team than i Aowa State. But unfortunately for Baylor, they're not at full strength. They have numerous guys that missed last week, and we don't know yet, but it doesn't seem to be trending well. The starting running back Ta McWilliams, their slot receiver Baldwin, the tight end Sims. I'm not even

hitting all of them. There's even more guys. They're a little bit compromised, so they have some injury concerns there, and especially the thing that concerns you is the skill guys if they're out again. Blake Shapin has not looked as good as It's not me Baylor. Baylor thought Blake Shapen was gonna look better. They wouldn't have told Jerry Bohannon to go and kick rocks and leave if they

knew that that shape wasn't gonna play as well. You wonder, is that because Shapan's been playing with skill guys that he didn't think he would be because of the injury concerns early on, or is shaping just not quite as good as they thought. Baylor's also played you know, they played byu that you know, they they played some teams so far they have you know, it hasn't been like Minnesota

playing three cupcakes whatever. So so that stuff's up in the air with them, and and and perhaps because of that, that's why this line has moved to Iowa State minus three. I I know someone very close to the Baylor program who over the years has helped me out quite a bit with Baylor handicaps, because it seems like he's on every single time. I messaged that guy to ask him what he thought about this game, and he did not

sound very confident on the Baylor side. And typically, I mean when he is confident, he'll let you know that he is confident. He is not confident in this game, perhaps because of a confidence of those factors. I can't bet Baylor because of all those different reasons. I also don't love Iowa State. Though they have a decent defense, the offense is super duper young. They didn't do much against.

in from an information perspective. For me, I don't see an edge on this one, you know, just in terms of the numbers. I guess my numbers would slightly lean Oregon at at I think I got Oregon minus eight point eight. But I it's hard for me to take them off of their triumphant win last week when they slapped around BYU.

And BYU went into that game off of that win against Baylor where they sort of had to figure things out and then scratch and claw and then pull it out in overtime, force overtime, then pull it out and overtime. Now Oregon comes in off that win, which is big for them. Now you have to travel out to the polue out there in Pullman, Washington, out up in the wilderness to play this Washington State team who has definitely

played better than we have all anticipated so far. But I don't know anyone that can get their fingers totally on Washington State. They're not Mike Leach's Washington State. They're not Nick Rolovich's Washington State. This team is something different. They've clearly improved on defense. The offense will see they've done a better job of not putting themselves into bad spots.

I think that maybe you would have thought heading in because cam Ward last year in the FCS, even though he put up Bazooka numbers, he threw a whole bunch of interceptions. Washington State is doing a better job of at least controlling the ball on offense, but they have not been as explosive nor I think as efficient overall as they have been in the past. This one, for me, it could go either way. I feel like Washington State

is licking its chops with the situational spot. It's in getting that Oregon team off that win over BYU feeling itself slapping around BYU. Now they come in there, maybe you ambush them, But Oregon they're feeling good too. I think they think that they figured things out after that the disaster of the opener. For me, that's an informational game, and I think we're gonna get some good information out.

undefeated in fluke circumstances. We'll talk about that in a second. But indeed it got immediately hammered up to Cincinnati minus fourteen by the time people woke up on Monday morning with Cincinnati minus fourteen and already jumped six points just because of the market movement on it. And but even

that didn't go far enough. Like my addressed line in that game was like nineteen point eight, I guess, and and so then you know, got to fourteen by Monday morning, and then now it's up to sixteen and a half. I still don't think that's far enough for me. Until this thing gets up to twenty. It is too short. It just is Look at the resumes. Throw out the records,

but look at the resumes and what actually happened. Yes, Indiana's three and zero, but in the first game they pulled a game out of their butts against Illinois where they were down for a lot of it, and then they had to drive the length of the field the very end to pull that game out after Brett Beilham and made all those stupid decisions when he got first and goalne and was just run up the middle, run up the middle, run up the middle, run up the middle,

turn the ball over and then Indiana go is ninety nine years thir whatever. And then the next week Indiana hosts Idaho, who not only is Idaho and FCS team, they're not a particularly good FCS team. Last year they went four and seven. They'd lost the game heading into the Indiana one Idaho led Indiana on their home field ten to nothing at halftime. Indiana had to rally in the second half to beat them. And then last week, you know, we were talking all week love Western Kentucky.

Love Western Kentucky. To upset Indiana. Don't even need the points. We tuck. It was a six and a half point underdog. They controlled that entire game. They did whatever they wanted to do, but Indiana justs hung around. You know, it's like the Teddy KGB.

by eight. They drove the length of the field, scored the touchdown, got the two point conversion at the very very end, twenty seconds left, forced overtime. Western Kentucky missed the field goal in the front end of it. Indiana gets their field goal in the back end. So they ended up winning that game, another game that they had absolutely no business winning. So Indiana is a three to

zero team who really should be one and two. And the game that you know again the win was against FCS Idaho when they didn't look good in that game either. And on the Cincinnati side, I sort of think it's the opposite. They maybe should have beat excuse me, Arkansas in the opener. That thing didn't go their way. But Cincinnati is a solid team. Last week they started out sluggishly against Miami of Ohio, who's an above average MAC team,

but then Cincinnati just slapped them around after halftime. They've covered every line of that one, both the side, second half line, everything like that. Cincinnati is more talent than people think. And now that the quarterback play is established. After in camp, you know they were wondering, we're gonna go Bryant, Are we gonna go pray or how you know, what are we gonna do? What are we gonna do in the running back room, there's so many different names.

They've sorted through that stuff now and now also the receiving course is starting to become more solidified as well. I love Cincinnati in this game. Again, this line should be Cincinnati minus twenty or minus twenty one, as long as you can get it under that, and certainly if you can get it fourteen or least by Cincinnati, that's It's one of my favorite plays of the week. And getting it even lower made me even more confident. But even in fourteen or you know, between that and seventeen,

definitely a bye. The one where it's not that I disagree with my system, it's I just can't get my finger on this one. My system loves Louisiana or as some people will call him, Louisiana Lafayette. Yeah, at UO Monroe. In this case, my system has Louisiana or Louisiana Lafayette by seventeen and a half, and the live line has come all the way down to Louisiana minus nine. The reason that I can't bet it it's twofold. I have been a little bit higher on UE Monroe than the market.

They swapped out their coordinators. They had Rich Rodriguez, an offensive coordinator before and Rich Rodrigez had already started as early what do you call soft quitting. Rich Rodriguez had already started his soft retirement. But before that, and Uele Monroe is not equipped to run his offense even when his kid was the quarterback. And then they had an equally big dope as a defensive coordinator. They swapped those things.

They went back and got the defensive coordinator that they'd had Matt Lubik the last time that they were good on offense. You bring him back in. The offense has ticked up early on in the season, and the defense. It's not that the talent has jumped up, but they seem to be more at least on the same page, which is an upgrade over what we saw last year. Louisiana a team that had been dominant in that conference

for the past several years under Billy Napier. You lose Napier, but not only that, Napier took some players with them, your best players. They lost some of the other players as well. They had lost all the NFL running backs that you remember from recent years, like in your memory, like Elijah Mitchell and Vegas and all REGs. To what I call Regas to Riches. I used to call that

Trey Regas kid. But anyway, they had all these different, you know, NFL guys that they lost previously, and then you lose a bunch of the guys that transfers some of them with Napier. They're still trying to figure things out, and like I said, I can't get my finger on that team yet. Qualitatively, this line should be higher. Just

that's dictated by the talent levels on both teams. Louisiana Lafayet certainly is the more talented team here, and they're more talented enough to justify a double digit spread on the road. It's just again, You and Roe has taken a little bit of a step up. We're talking about the dregs of the FBS, but they have taken an objective step up, whereas Louisiana Lafayette we know that they've taken multiple steps down. The question becomes just how far

has Louisiana fallen. We're gonna get a better sense after this game, because if they boat race you wom and Roe at Uo Monroe. Uh. You know, I think I think some of the people that adjusted them way way down in their power rankings to justify a bet on you Monroe, which which is clearly happening. That's why this line has dropped as far as it right then you could sort of start toggling it back for you all Offayette, But I just can't trust them yet. It's like I

don't know them. I don't know who the person on the other end of the door knocking is, you know, and I don't have the people, so I don't know if I can open that door or not. I know I can't trust me yet.