Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.
The NFL regular season may be over, but there is still plenty of stuff to talk about for wild Card weekend, and with me to talk about it all is Matt Perrault, a host of Pushing the Odds on sp Nation Radio and The Better Network and as I've mentioned often, one of my favorite podcasts, covering the Number where they break down some of the action in sports books from the previous weekend. You can find them on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Matt, thanks for coming on the show. How's it going.
I really appreciate the invite coming back. This is a lot of fun. I always great to talk to a fellow New England or even though you're not really from New England but you live there now, so but thanks Dan, I really appreciate the invite.
I'm so impressed that you remember my background, Matt, because I feel like you would just come on. You talk so much on someone. Well, you you're happy, you're out in Vegas. What's the temperature right now?
Oh? It's cold, man. It's it's been forty five degrees for pretty much the whole week, so it's been lows in the upper thirties and flow forties. It's just disgusting, to be quite honest. But we're seeing the light on the end of the tunnel. It's the sixties are only a couple of weeks away, so we're almost we're almost through our winter.
Well, when you're in low forties, as you know, you're pretty much in my summer at that point. So but you know, and that could have an impact on this weekend's game with your Pats, which we'll talk about. But Matt, I've been thinking about something. In addition to sports betting,
I do a lot of fantasy sports. Right when we started doing this podcast earlier this season, I had to let some of my fantasy baseball podcasting duties go, and a few listeners they kept bugging me about sports gambling, right, they hadn't done it before. They didn't get it is really enjoyable. I was thinking about it the other night because I was watching and I know you were watching because I follow on Twitter, so I saw you were tweeting right at the time the Orange Bowl with Florida
and Virginia. Now, I don't go crazy with college football betting. I'm too focused on the NFL during the season because fantasy and everything. But buddy of mine is from Florida, went to Florida and for fun, he and I have just this joint fun. Nothing where I'm gonna lose my house or anything, but we do small bets so we could have fun. So he texted me midgame said he wanted to throw some on the Gators who were laying fourteen. I believe it was at halftime. So we did, and
we lost that bet. But I think all you need to do is look at the last few minutes of that game for anyone in the world to see exactly what it means to be a sports better.
Right. Yeah, and look, and welcome to New Hampshire, by the way, that's really fun to see another state in New England. Rhde Island now in New England in New Hampshire now were both legal with mobile wagering and whatnot. So that's awesome. And look, I talk about this on
my show a lot. I talk about this in Covering the Number with Patrick Everson, who I co hosted with from Covers Dot com and one of the things that I think everyone has to recognize and realize what's coming podcast like this, that we're not going to be in the bomb throwing media world anymore. Very soon, we're gonna be in information. We're going to be in an actual
intellectual dialogue. And I tip of the cap goes to Daily Fantasy because it started all of this really where we start looking at the game and we're not worried about what some dude behind a microphone is blasting some player for being where he was two days before, or you know, hey, did you know that Baker Mayfield was out in Austin two days after the year was over. It's like, oh my gosh, he's a twenty four year old guy. He has no responsibilities, he's a millionaire. Why
can't he be out drinking? Who cares? So Like that crap is going away and we're actually gonna have real
fun conversations. And by the way, Steve Leevy deserves a huge tip of the cap as well for pointing it out that, hey, by the way, this kick a field goal that pushed it from fourteen and a half where I was I was under I was at min was fourteen and a half for Florida, push it to fifteen, and then all of a sudden, here comes this crazy drive for Virginia and they go down the field in like thirty five seconds and score a touchdown to cover. I mean, those are all conversations that at some point
we're gonna have live lines. Like I've mentioned this before. I don't know if this podcast or others, but de Zone does this right now with bet MGM, speaking of the sponsor of this podcast, they run live odds on their big fights on a ticker underneath the screen. You'll see live odds minus four hundred were round three, round four,
whatever it is. That's going to be part of us every day, and the broadcasters are going to have to be educated enough to have that conversation of where the line is, or where the line was, or where the public was. And once once we get more than half the states on board Fox, Fox will go first because of Fox Bet clearly, but it'll be universal. ESPN is
going to have it with Caesars and whatnot. We're going to have this acceptance where Steve Levy's conversations during the game will not be so notable, even though it really was when the game was going on.
It really kind of annoys me at this point when there are these games that are so clearly out of reach that the only people who are really watching at that point are people who have bet on the game, and announcers don't even remotely mention it, you know what I mean. Like at least you know, the Levy was all over it, which is great, but you know, at this point, I feel like it's got to become more complace. It's going to obviously, you know, as you said, is more states do it.
But just take Cincinnati Boston College in your back of the in your neck of the woods. So I believe the total in that game was like forty five, I think somewhere in that range, and it was thirty eight. Thirty six was the final. That's a blowout. Joe, who's watching the fourth quarter of a bowl game, the Birmingham Bowl between a six and six BC and an eleven and three Cincinnati BC Eagle graduates in Cincinnati graduates and
everyone who bet the game. So like, if you're a if you're a broadcaster, you have to be this is you know, I'm with you getting pissed off about this because it is ridiculous in the fourth quarter. You should be talking about the number. Hey, the total was this, Here's many points have been scored. Will we see the undercome through here? Or could this drive me in the over or whatever? Because nobody's watching that Bowl game unless they have money on it.
Just one hundred percent, period, one hundred percent good, All right, good. I know I got a stop on this big tangent start, but I did want to talk about that because it struck out to me that, you know, people are freaking out over whether they're going to call back the touchdown on that was a pass to the offensive line right in a completely meaningless game and has such huge implications.
I just think frankly that that's part of what's making the sports betting great as it becomes, you know, more widespread and becomes legal in each of the states. But let's get into this weekend's action. Before we do, let us quickly review last week as we always do, because I personally kind of had an Orange Bowl Florida Gators laying fourteen kind of week. I lost on the Falcons and the Bucks under forty eight because of a last second field goal tied it up, and then Jameis Winston
threw a pick on the first plane overtime. Just win by a field goal in overtime, and we're good. I lost on the Broncos leanth three and a half to the Raiders because the Broncos decided to try a completely unnecessary fifty seven yard field goal instead of punting in a game they were otherwise sure to win. And I lost the Ravens and the Steelers under thirty seven because of a last minute safety. Now, to be fair, I actually had that in real life at thirty eight, so
I push. But whatever. Even my prop bet where I won the Christian McCaffrey over fifty receiving yards, but that was at minus two fifty and as I said, place a little bit on the over seventy five receiving yards and even money, and that was a lot. So it was gambling at its finest. Our guest Sean Corner. He hit on the Bengals and the Browns over forty three and a half. He missed on the Seahawks, getting three
and a half from the nine Ers. He won on his top prop bet of Travis Homer over forty one and a half yards, And for his other bet, he said he'd probably pop an in game bet on the Chargers over the Chiefs, depending on the line. My guess is he hit it at the peak when it was Chargers plus eleven and a half like I did. So I'm just gonna give him credit for that. Now, as everybody pretty much knows, we start with pick six, where we each give our three best bets of the weekend.
There are only four games this weekend. It's not easy, but we're gonna do our best. So Matt, get us started here. What's your first pick?
Okay, So I'm gonna start with the first game of the day on Saturday, and that's gonna be Buffalo at Houston. And this game is incredibly hard for me because I either have to trust Josh Allen or trust Bill O'Brien, and that's really hard to do. So you're talking about a Houston team that's at home, a Buffalo team that I have been betting against and losing on, and i'd been wrong. I've been going to the well consistently here against when it comes to the Bills, I guess, except
against the Patriots. But I've been looking at this Buffalo Bills team and they play incredibly hard. I just don't think Josh Allen can throw the football. And I think JJ watt coming back is pretty significant from a pass rushing perspective because receivers coming back from injury or running backs coming back from injury have to get in sync with a quarterback. It's not that hard for a defensive lineman to pin his ears back on third down and go get the quarterback. It's kind of just in their
nature to go and do it. So while his stamina might not be up in the fourth quarter, the game might be over by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. So I really think if you can get this under three, and currently, I mean here in Vegas, it looks like it's two and a half across the board at most books, I think the home team here. I know road Dogs have been so profitable this year, but this is still
the postseason. It's the playoffs. I'm gonna lay two two and a half on Houston and I'm gonna take the Texans to wind up winning and knock it out the Bills.
Man, I gotta be honest, I don't I don't feel I kind of think the Bills are gonna win this game. I really do. I kind of do I don't. I don't have a strong feeling bad it. You raise good points. I mean rookie quarterbacks or not rookie quarterbacks, but quarterbacks making their first start in the playoffs, you just can't trust them whatsoever. I don't think Watt's gonna have a huge impact in this game. Just look you should. You can't return from a torn pack in this amount of time,
like you just can't. I can't imagine that he's gonna be out there playing that many snaps. I feel like it's got to be more of a morale type of thing at this point. I mean, I know he's he's.
Like to see him around type of guy, though. I mean, do you think J. J. Watt comes back from morale? I don't know.
No, I think he wants to.
He's gonna want to.
Play, I get it. I think he wants to play, man. But that's the other thing, man is it does not sound like Will Fuller is going to play in this game, you know whoever. I think James Palmer tweeted out that he thinks it's a long shot. So that's a big deal for me, sort of with them stretching the field now, I don't really know necessarily who's gonna win. But I'm a little worried about the Texans coming out. I think if forced to, I think the Bills are gonna win.
But it does sort of lead into my first pick, and I'm gonna actually do a two team teaser for my lost pick. Yeah, so it's going to be part of this game, which is I'm gonna tease the Bills up from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half, and I'm gonna tease the Saints down from laying seven and a half right now to one and a half. So I think whatever way this Bill's game goes, I don't see it as being the Texans
blowing them out. I just don't really think that they have that capacity to do it right now without Fuller, right because the Bill's pass defense is very, very good, especially with there's no Will Fuller. They're exploitable on the ground. But the Texans, you know, as good as Carls Hide and you know Duke Johnson whatever were this season, they're not dominant. They can't just roll out there and crush them in this game. And like you said, I don't
trust Bill O'Brien. I certainly have more faith in the UH in the Bills coaching staff, and look, I think that you know, it depends if Watt is there and he shores up that run defense and he does play a lot of Stuff's fine, that might change things. But you know, the Texans are beatable through the air. Their run defense, certainly without Wat has taken a hit. So
either way, the Bills the Bills. As we talk, I think, by the way, you selling yourself short because the last time you were on I think it was an early look at the lines. But you love the Ravens beating the Bills and covering, which they did in that game, and you said that then you were fading them the whole time. I think that's right. But they never get blown out. They did that one game against the Eagles, right, but against the Ravens I lost by seven. Against the Pats,
I lost by seven and six. So I think either way they'll keep it close. And with the Saints, look, they may win this game by twenty for all I know, but it's a big number. It's easy for a backdoor cover. I cannot imagine they lose this game. Though, So if I'm going to get it at underfield goal here at a point and a half, essentially pick them. I'm all over that. The offense is explosive right now. You know to the secondary for the Vikings is terrible. They're not
gonna be able to stop Michael Thomas. Trake On Smith is playing better, and you know the Vikings offense, I don't know. I mean, you know, you've got Kirk Cousins in a primetime game. But you know Dalvin Cook he is coming back here, but one shot at the shoulder he could be out for the rest of the game. Cousins, you know, I'm not sure he's gonna have too much success through the air. Saints have Marshau Lanimore and now Janoris Jenkins. That place is going to be banana if
there's a if there's a play that is questionable. I can't see how the refs are gonna go against the Saints hum and everything that's happened. So I think the Saints are gonna win this game. I'm not sure by how much. And I don't think the Bills are gonna
get blown out. So my bet the only bet high places, as you mentioned I'm in New Hampshire DraftKings is here is that two team teaser with the Bills up from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half, with the Saints down from lank seven and a half to laying one and a half.
Look, you're speaking my language here because I am a massive proponent of two team teasers in the NFL. I think if I can play the around with the line, these lines, in particular late in the year where the lines is so sharp, the only thing, just from a casual better perspective that we have to point out here you aren't gonna lay one ten to win one hundred. Here, you're gonna lay one forty okay, son one hundred and
forty bucks down to win one hundred. So that's the way the books protect themselves, and it gives you an idea. That's how the books feel about two team teasers. And I have had long conversations about book makers here in Las Vegas, and they freaking hate these things. These things hurt them because if you're an educated person with the NFL, and you clearly are, you know how to move these
lines and manipulate the games around. And if you're okay with laying one hundred and forty bucks to win one hundred, you have a chance to really get after it here, because, like you mentioned, the chances of the Vikings winning this game outright, which would blow your teaser up, highly unlikely. So that's the only hook to get to worry about a little bit. But the line being over a touchdown opened at eight, now seven and a half in maybe
seven a game kicks off. But it gives you an idea as to how the books feel about the Vikings and Kirk Cousins going to the Dome to beat the Vikings. So sorry to beat the Saints. So all you gotta do is, hey, New Orleans, just win, win the game, and you're good. I love your play here a lot in Buffalo, keeping it close unless Josh Allen throws three picks, which could happen by a possibility, Okay, which can happen if he becomes a turnover machine in his first playoff game. Okay,
I mean I don't like Josh Allen. I'm on the record. I don't think he hit the broadside of a barn. I think he has zero touch. I think every time he throws the ball up in the air, you never know where its going. Can He's got a cannon for an arm, so you throw the ball seventy yards. He just has no idea where the thing's going when he throws it, So I'm a little I'm concerned about that side of it only if he is turning the ball over.
But if he doesn't and he just hands the ball off, they can lose the game by a touchdown and you're in the clear. So I don't hate your play at all, I really do. And then this is a by the way, this is a huge teaser weekend. This is these lines are all ripe to be teased.
Oh absolutely, I completely agree. And yeah to your point, yeah, I got it. You know, minus one forty three. I'm not getting a deal or anything like that, but it is it is a line that I feel relatively confident. And again, I just you know, I have faith in the Bills at least keeping it close. I don't know if they're going to win the game or even if they're gonna be able to cover that line, but I do feel confident that they're going to be able to cover the eight and a half. All right, let's go
to your second pick. What do you got?
All right, so I'm going to go to a weather game. And you mentioned it a little earlier, Tennessee, New England in Foxborough where the line is going up. Okay, this has been really interesting for me to watch this, So I would say weight on this number until kick to see how high it winds up going. But over the total for the Titans in the Pats opened at forty one and a half. It's been bet up to forty four and a half, forty five. I've seen it may
go over forty five. Let it keep going up, and then I'm saying bet the under here, and I just this is my thing about the Titans. The Titans are going to try to run the football. The Patriots know Ryan Tannehill, They've played Ryan Tannehill. This Patriots defense played pathetically bad against the Dolphins. Stefan Gilmour got lit up by DeVante Parker, they got roasted in the media. If the Patriots defense is not ferocious in this game, I will be absolutely shocked. I don't think the Titans are
going to score much. I think they might get to twenty. I think they're probably in the teens, like seventeen. And we know the Patriot offense is a massive pain. It's a huge problem. Brady's a problem right now with this tennis elbow Edelman's banged up and not healthy. They don't have really a wide receiver worth talking about other than Julian Lleman, who is a slot receiver. They don't have a tight end. Their running game with Sony Michelle has
hit or missed. They've given the ball Direx Burkhead a ton because he breaks tackles and Sony Michelle does not. And if you're not running the football, it limits Jane's White's ability because he's a he's a you know, a change of pace guy in a screen weapon, and if you'ren't running the football well enough, then it really limits what he can do. So the Patriots are going to
have a tough time scoring in this Titans defense. And that's why I have toyed with the idea of the Patriots, you know, of taking the points here at five and a half or five for Tennessee. But I think the under is a stronger play here in this game. And there could be rain in cold temperatures in Foxborough, and nobody likes tackling anybody in the rain, so that makes me a little afraid. But more likely, not a lot of passing going on between the Titans and the Patriots, so I'll play the under.
Yeah, one hundred percent agree. You know, I talk about this often usually what I do with our guests, I say, hey, just give me your picks, you know, I don't know, you know, an hour or two in advance, so you can get it. Matt. Matt was pretty busy. He gave me his picks three seconds in advance before he came out the way.
I'm stealing one of your plays.
And he did steal one of my plays. So I could either make something up, but you know what, it's a short week, all right, we're gonna go with this. This also would have been one of my players. I completely agree with you here. I mean you look at the I mean, Brian Tennell is playing great, right he absolutely is playing really really well right now. A lot of it goes to AJ Brown. Derrick Henry is absolutely dominant.
But you've got the Patriots, and you know exactly what they're gonna do in this game defensively after last week, right, they're gonna stack the box to stop Henry. They're gonna double Brown, okay, and then they're gonna put Gilmour and Davis. They're not gonna do the thing. Where Gilmore, they're just gonna, you know, with Parker, they're gonna do the thing where they put two guys on the best receiver and then
put Gilmore probably on Corey Davis or whatever. And so you know, from their defense, given the weather, I think they're really gonna be able to slow down the Titans. And on the other side, yeah, look, the problem is the Titans defense really good against the runs, so it's gonna be really difficult I think for the Pats to get going there now. They're exploitable in the secondary, but the Pats just don't have it right now.
Man.
I mean, look, you're you're a fan, obviously, I don't know what you think if this is the end of Brady, whether or not he's battling through in whether it's just the fact that the receivers other than Edelman are way too raw and young and everything like that, whatever it is, they don't have the offense right now to exploit that deficiency in the Titans defense, particularly when you go with the weather that's gonna come. Like you said, so for me,
you know what Dorriy Jackson's coming back to. I agree with you, man, I completely agree on this play. I have it as well. I'm surprised. I can't believe it's gone up three points since open. It's crazy. I guess people were hammering the over there. But I completely agree with you. I'm on board for my second pick. I'll leave that as my third pick. This one is another under for me, and that's the Seahawks and the Eagles
under forty five and a half. I feel like, frankly, you could go with a narrative either way on this game. You like, oh, I really want to go over. You know, the Seahawks defense kind of stinks. Clowney is going to be out. They don't pressure the quarterback. They're not good against pass catching running backs, they're not good against tight ends. Carson Wentz is playing great, and the Eagles have no secondary, and you know, once Wilson was Wilson in the second
half against the forty nine ers. Blah blah blah. I feel like you could easily make that narrative. But I'm going the other way because you know, we know what Brian Schottenheimer is at this point. I don't think that six injured running backs and obvious success passing the ball against an exploitable secondary is gonna change what he does. He's gonna stick with the ground game. He's gonna run at a ton, he's gonna eat time off the clock. And with the Eagles, it's just a different game here
in the playoffs. I don't think whether or not Miles Sanders and zach ar Is actually play. I don't think either one is going to be able to be effective given their injury. Dallas Goddard, Greg Ward, Jordan Howard. I just don't see this as being the type of offense it's gonna be able to put up a ton of points in the playoffs. Again, it's gonna be cold in
a game like this. I see this as being one of these draged out, hard hitting affairs where it's gonna kind of keep the game closed throughout, and I think in the end it's gonna wind up being under forty five and a half. So that's my second pick here. I don't know how you feel about that.
I like it because I think the key to this game and this is kind of going right and kind of into my third pick, because my third pick is phil Ladelphia plus one and a half at home to beat the Seals, because I don't think the Seahawks can run the football, and they've got so many injuries. I think Philadelphia is going to try to play ball control. I think they're gonna run the football straight down the throats for the Seattle Seahawks, and I think that's their key.
Boston Scott on the edge shorten this game. I mean, just get a win, don't worry about what you're doing. Just get in and get out. And I just think there are injuries on both sides that are pretty significant, but I think Philadelphia's defense is the biggest reason why I like this game for the Eagles to win. And I just I know, Russell Wilson is Russell Wilson, I get it. I'm just not I haven't been in love with this team, even with a seven and one record
on the road. I just haven't really been in love with this Seattle Seahawks team. And maybe I'm thinking about the Rams game too much, but I mean, they already played once and they beat the Eagles once, and I think it's really hard to beat a team twice in the same year, but on the same field, and that game was seventeen to nine, So that kind of fits right into what you're talking about about a low scoring defensive battle between Philadelphia and Seattle. So I love that play.
I like the under a lot. I just think the Philadelphia Eagles right now at home. This is a coaching staff that has had a lot of pressure on them. It's a huge game for Carson Wentz. He played incredibly well last week. I just think this is a game protecting the home field in the weather. I just don't see Seattle, even with their seven to one road record, even with beating the Eagles earlier in the year in Philly. I like Philadelphia plus one and a half.
The Seahawks are not a very good football team, man Like, They're just not. It's all Russell Wilson pulling crazy stuff, you know, out out of his hat. And I think what you're gonna see in this game is, for the most part, you're gonna see conservative, but you're gonna see one or two crazy, smart, brilliant, you know, trick plays that Peterson's going to pull out that are going to be the difference while the Seahawks are just running instead of they're much more effective if they just let Wilson
go and let him be what he can be. But they don't like to do that. So yeah, if i'm forced to pick a side in this game, I would take the Eagles, but overall my preferred play is the under there, so let's just recap my third pick. By the way, I'm not gonna force one because I don't love anything else here, So we're both just jumping on the Patriots and the Titans under forty four and a half, so we're both taking that one. I'm also doing the two team teaser with the Bills getting eight and a
half and the Saints laying one and a half. And my other pick, sorry, is the Seahawks and the Eagles under forty five and a half. You are also jumping on the Pats and the Titans under forty four and a half. You are going to take the Eagles getting one and a half, and you're gonna take the Texans laying two and a half. So we've got some fun stuff going on for this week. And now before we move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM, and specifically the bet MGM
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All right, So this is the point in the show where we ordinarily move to It's a Trap, where we list to one line that we're avoiding before we finish up with top prop, where we give our favorite player prop bet of the weekend. Now, Matt and I recorded both segments, but unfortunately we had a few technical issues and Matt's audio never came through. So he got a
couple options here. We can ditch the segments entirely. I can try to impersonate Matt and make his picks, or I can just give you both our picks in regular Dan Harris talk. Because I already know Matt's picks, and because he has a grade A radio voice that I could never duplicate, I'm going with options C. So interestingly, for It's a Trap, Matt and I both went with the same game, but we had different angles on it. Matt was avoiding either side of the Pats laying five
to the Titans. He is confident that the Pats are going to win the game, but he could see them putting it all together and winning by twenty or eking out a close win by only a field goal. In short, he does not feel confident that the Pats would cover the spread, but he does feel like they'll win, so he's just avoiding the spread on that game entirely. Now. As for me, if I like the Pats, I would be willing to lay the five points because I don't
see them coming away with a close victory here. I think either you're going to see closer to a classic Patriot at home in New England weather against the rookie offensive coordinator type of dominant performance, or I think that the downfall is real and the Titans are going to pull this game out. In other words, I don't see this as a three point win for the Pats. I can see them putting it all together and winning big.
Or I can see the Titans taking this game, which means that the line I'm avoiding is the Titans getting five. If you like the Titans, I just as soon take them on the money line. Or really, since Matt and I are both avoiding the spread in that game, just take the under and be done with it now. Oddly enough, Matt and I both stuck with that game. For our top prop, Matt had Ryan Tannehill under eighteen and a
half completions at minus one ten. He views that as a game that with the rain forecasted in particular, the Titans are going to try to control the ball on the ground and not air it out. Considering that Tannehill does not throw that much even on a good day, I had no problem with it. As for me, I was taking Julian Edelman over sixty four and a half receiving yards at minus one on nine. Tom Brady just has very limited options in the passing game right now.
You heard me talk earlier about how the Titan secondary is their weakness, but that the Pats can't really exploit that at the moment. But the one place that they can exploit that is in the slot where Edelman is going to go up against old friend Logan Ryan. The Pats know him well. He is terrible this year in coverage, one of the worst slot cornerbacks in the league. I see Edelman getting a ton of targets and easily passing
the sixty four and a half yard receiving threshold. Honestly, I would probably bet this up to roughly seventy two to seventy three, So I'm going to be placing a pretty hefty bet on it over at DraftKings and that's what you missed again. Really sorry about the technical issues. Before we go, I want to say thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code Harris to get your risk free five hundred dollars bet.
And don't forget to leave this review on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at betting per dot com to be entered into our Michael Thomas segned helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this week, and everyone, we're gonna be back next week talking about the division