Best NFL Week 9 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 23)

And how are we supposed to deal with that? That is what I have been dealing with for the last four hours.

let's do some full disclosure. As always, I missed hard on the Panthers getting six from the forty nine ers last week, and I missed not as hard but still hard on the Chiefs getting three and a half from the Packers last week. I did hit on the Bears and the Chargers under forty as well as Deontay Johnson over seventy five receiving yards at plus one ninety. I think that's the fourth straight game that I hit on my top prop, so I'm gonna get a little bolder

this week now. Our guest Ian McMillan had a good week, hitting on the Eagles plus one and a half against the Bills and the Broncos getting five and a half from the Colts, as well as his top prop of Aaron Jones over seventy five yards, which he basically doubled. His only miss was the Jets and Jaguars under forty one, and as a jetsman, I will take full responsibility for that. So not the worst week overall, but we can do better.

Rich Now you're gonna hear us make a few picks on the show, But if you want to see more of my picks, or more of any sports betting experts picks, just go to Beddingpros dot com. You can see who's picking any game. You'll see experts giving notes on their picks. You can see how only the most accurate experts are picking. Basically, it does all the work for you. Also, Rich and I are going to be using the Betting Pros dot Com consensus ods, which are the aggregate odds available in

the market. So, as always, we're going to get started with pick six, where both Rich and I are going to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread or on the over, on or all right, Rich, I've talked enough, start us off what you got.

there is a high spread and a low total. In fact, this decade. When the total is below forty and the dog is getting between ten and fourteen points, they're covering at a fifty nine percent clip. And it makes sense. If you've got two really grindy teams that are supposed to play a low scoring game, how do you expect one team to get out ahead and extend the lead enough to cover such a large number. In addition to that, I mean, if you squint, are these teams that much different?

The Bills are definitely more talented, but Football Outsiders has these two teams extremely close and overall efficiency, the Bills at twenty fifth and the Washington around there as well, and the Washington football team. They're bad, of course, but they're a professional team. If you look at that Vikings game, they didn't lay down like the Bengals or the Dolphins. They competed the entire game. Bill Callahan wants to run the ball, which is great in a scenario like this

because it limits the amount of possessions. It limits the amount of opportunities for the Bills to get the ball and score. So this is just way too many points for a Bills team that doesn't stretch the field vertically and kind of wants to play a grindy, low pace, low scoring game. So give me the Washington professional football team getting ten points.

of practice. Look, I'm not telling you Dwayne Haskins is going to come out here and be Tom Brady right, But I think, what's the difference between him and case Keenum? Can it be that large? Is that even possible? I don't think so, I do, I really do, like I honestly.

over there. I don't see that. I agree, And the one thing with the Redskins is they have a decent defense, you know, especially their their front seven, you know, and it's not like Josh Allen's able to pass all over everybody because he's incredibly inaccurate. So I agree, I don't really see them putting up a ton of points, and the Redskins, when Keenum has been in there, have at least been able to be competent offensively. But I have

to be honest, you make a fair point. Both games Haskins was in relief, but the whole point of bringing him in relief in that Giants game was to be like, here's a layup for you, dude, and he, to me just looks not in any way ready whatsoever? I mean against the Vikings, I get it. Of course they're a good defense. But he was you know, the overthrow to McLaurin just really you know, killed me when I watched

it because it's just, you know, his elbow. They were talking about his elbow so low, everything's sort of flying up. So if he gets the start, and it's the reason why I would not feel comfortable taking it yet. I mean, you seem to think that the difference between Haskins and Keenum is essentially not negligible but minor. For me, that is something that I think that I would be hesitant

to take it if Keenum starts. I want to make it clear, I really like it, So if you get good news on that, but for me.

I do think Kingdom's going to play at this point. Personally, I'm not making my pick. I'm betting broths dot com until I know who started to get quarterback. But I'm a little hesitant and maybe a little jaded by the fact that I was, you know, closely watching that Thursday night game and horrified at what I saw. But he has obviously been taking a lot of reps this week at least, and he's had you know, ten days I'm sure to get more familiar with everything. So okay, Washington

plus ten, I'll go there. I'm gonna take an equally you know, boring game, and I'm going to take the Jets and the Dolphins over forty one and a half. So these are two teams that are both complete disasters at the moment. The Jets have done almost nothing offensively the last two games, but the real reason is just that Sam Darnold is getting his butt kicked non stop. The Jets offensive line is a complete disaster. So when you put them up against the Patriots strong defensive line,

they're all over him. The Jaguars sacked him eight times, and again, that's kind of what you expect from those teams. The Pats are first in the league in sacks. The Jaguars are third, of course, boyed by a little bit of what they did against the Jets, but that's not gonna be the case with the Dolphins. They have just nine sacks on the season. That's second worst in the league,

tied with the Jets. Incidentally, they rarely get pressure, and you've seen the Jets like competent offensively, at least against the Cowboys. You're gonna see it again here. Leveon Bell is going to have a big game. Robbie Anderson is going to have a big game with Zami and Howard now on Ir which was like the one guy in the secondary, even though he was not playing particularly well this year, the one guy in the secondary once they

got rid of Minka Fitzpatrick that you feared. Sam Darnold is playing through a thumb spring, but it is his left hand. I think he's gonna be fine. He's fully practicing. So I think the Jets are gonna put up points here, and I think so are the Dolphins. The offense looks kind of competent with fits back out there, which he's already been named the starter like the Dolphins. As I said, the Jets get absolutely no pressure, just nine sacks, and

now they're down. Leonard Williams. C J. Mosley is probably going to miss the rest of the season. He's obviously not gonna play in this game. The secondary outside of Jamal Adams is not great, and Adams is in full drama mode. He basically, you know, is angry at the prospect of getting traded. He refused a meeting with the GM right now, so who even knows you know what is going to happen with him this weekend. But either way, in the end, it's two really terrible defenses and two

offenses that have enough playmakers to move the ball. So for me, the over at forty one and a half is my favorite bet of the weekend.

If Chris Herndon comes back, he's going to be a nice threat alongside Ryan Griffin, who's been just more than a warm body running routes for this Jets offense. And on the other side of the ball. On the grid Iron Gamble podcast, we like to refer to Fitzpatrick as Fitzpowder keg because the keg can blow at any time and there is certainly a defensive touchdown to be had in this game if Keg is just throwing the ball all over the field against a very very agressive Greg

Williams defense. So yeah, I definitely like the over in this spot, especially if we can look into one of those defensive touchdowns Spy.

it's going to hit this over pretty pretty well. So I feel good about this one, and it's my number one bet. All right, let's move on to your second pick. What do you have? All right?

everybody thinks they're horrific and their stock is plummeting. And the Eagles went to Buffalo and poured thirty on a team that previous to that game only had one loss at Philadelphia's lows have been very low this season. They lost to the Falcons, they lost to six point favorites at home to the Lions. Even when they beat up on our stinky Jets, they only had four and a half yards per play in that game. So this is a stock high stock love spot where I really think

that we can take the Bears. And just looking at the football analysis as well, Jason Peter's not playing today. He's not practicing today, excuse me on Wednesday. He's not played the last couple of games. And Andre Dillard, who they drafted as a luxury to be a backup left tackle, has really struggled. Struggled. Now he's gonna have Khalil Mack lining up right in front of him. Even the double team is gonna make that life hell for the rookie

on the left hand side. So give me the Bears get right spot on the road, a bad secondary to get Trubisky going a little bit, Matt and Agy scheming some things up. I just think this is a point maybe a point and a half.

secondary is horrendous, but their run defense is good. And you know David Montgomery, he was kind of the guy last week. They finally went to him. So I get completely about the Eagles having trouble scoring necessarily, But do you think the Bears are going to be able to put up points here?

yo team this year. Right. You kind of want to fade them after they've looked great and bet on them after they've looked terrible because the opposite is coming, and I think this is a week we can almost take advantage of that.

three when I first picked it. A lot of what you said makes sense, except for the fact that I don't really see either team necessarily being able to put up a ton of points. The Shawn Jackson is potentially back this week, that screws up the narrative a tiny bit, because I do think he makes it kind of a big difference in that offense for the Eagles. But again, I really do think that this sets up well for the Unders, just in the way that both these teams play.

The Eagles you've talked about them, but in particular, they're like the worst first half team in the game today. I mean, remember they started the season by being down twenty to seven against Washington. They fell behind significantly against both the Lions you just mentioned and the Vikings. For whatever reason, they cannot get going early. They've been behind at halftime in five of their eight games. They're one of the worst teams in the league in terms of

first quarter and first half point differential. I don't really have the reason for it other than I think that they're really not a very good football team right now, and then they play with their hair on fire in the comeback mode, so they can just get some points out of there, but otherwise they just struggle. And on the offensive side of the ball, things just they just look disjointed, right, I mean, zach Ertz hasn't gotten the

ball enough. The offensive line is a disaster. As you mentioned, they're finally leaning on the running game and that's working a little bit more, but it's not really you know, Miles Sanders is banged up a little bit with the shoulder. He should play, but again I don't expect them to be able to, you know, have however, whatever four rushing touchdowns or three rushing touchdowns like they had last game against the Bills. And on the defensive side, again, the

secondary has been decimated by injuries all year long. Jalen Mills, Ronald Darby, Vonte Maddox. They've all missed time and again. They can stop the run, but not really the past. But that's probably a pretty good recipe for the under because, unlike you, I have a little less faith I think in the Bears offense. I mean Mitchell Trubisky. To me, I've watched them closely. Everything is bad. This is taking

a giant sort of leap backwards. There was all these whispers in the preseason about how he just looked like he had regressed, and I didn't really buy it. But you know, whatever it is, he's been inaccurate. He doesn't look confident. The play calling in Matt ANDEGGI you know, you mentioned it as a positive. I don't know. It almost seems designed not to maximize the Bear strength at

this point. And again, you know, the one thing that they have going right now, I mean, Alan Robinson's playing great, but David Montgomery last game, he looked great. They ran out a ton, but that's really where the Eagles sort of set up shops. So in the end, I just don't really think that all of a sudden, the Eagles

are suddenly going to magically fix their slow starts. And in the end, I don't think they're gonna need to really come charging in the second half like they have been and put up all those points that they usually do, because I don't see the Bears getting out to a big lead. And I get the last game was eleven to seven against the Bills, and then the Eagles wound up putting up twenty points in the second half. But

a lot of that was fluky. I don't really think, as you said, they're up and then they're immediately down. So I don't really expect to see that this week. I expect a low, close scoring game, which is why I don't in any way hate the Bears getting five, because I think once you're past the key number of three, frankly,

I feel a little more confident in the Bears. So for me, even though I liked it at forty three, which is when I originally said I was gonna take it, I will take it at the Bears Eagles under forty two.

watch an actual mediocre team. So for me, you know, I think in the end, it's going to be a close scoring game. I agree with you that the Eagles just when they're up, that's when you kind of bet against them. So for me, I think it's much more betting against the offense, and I think it's just going to kind of be a you know, a hard hit game that's going to be relatively close. All right, let's move on to your third pick.

Tottenham Stadium. Come on you Spurs, big game against Everton this weekend. This is defense sold separately too. Both teams in the bottom third Lions fifth and pass efficiency according to DVA Raiders sixth, and we've got some real problems

here in this Lion secondary. They traded away KWANJ. Driggs. Thankfully, Darius Slay's back at practice today on Wednesday, but Tracy Walker, the safety, the second safety, went out with an injury to his knee against the Giants, did not practice today, so they might be out without Digs, without Walker and a limping Darius Sligh. So points galore in this game, and just give me the home team giving less than a field goal in the spot.

took them in that game against the Packers. I don't remember if that was one of my picks, but I think they were getting you know, four and a half by the end because a lot of sharp money came in on the Raiders, and yeah, they got blown out, but they really shouldn't have. It was that fumble, and they were in the red zone a couple of other times and turned it over, so that game could have

been a lot closer than it was. Their offensive line is playing extremely well, Josh Jacobs is doing good things, and again you know, now that Tyroll Williams is back, it gives car another option after Darren Waller out there. So yeah, with all with the Lions, who I also feel like generally been underrated. I mean, they didn't cover against the Giants, though I agree, you know, their defense is just you know, beat up a little bit. If Slave plays, that certainly helps them. But in the end,

I really don't hate it. I don't know whether or not I'll be able to pick if I had to choose a side, though I would choose the Raiders, So I definitely.

So I think this is the best value you might get on this Raiders team all season.

really going to work. So they are just going to be passing, which is fine, but you make them one dimensional, and you know, the Raiders should at least be able to hang with them. So I don't mind it considering their home, you know, giving less than field goal. Let's move on to my final pick, which is the Colts laying one to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I didn't get this line when it opened. I don't get it now, I will not get it tomorrow. I think the Steelers

defense is solid. It's not spectacular, but it's very solid, particularly since they added Minka Fitzpatrick. They get a ton of interceptions in sacks, but you can throw on them, as Fitzpatrick showed pretty easily that you can put up points against them right at the outset on Mondays on Monday Night. The Colts passing offense, you know, it's been generally good. Jacoby Brissett has fit in well for Andrew Luck.

It's a little bit of a mixed bag generally, but for the most part, the passing game has been working. And they're also the Steelers, I'll give them that. They're also in addition to good against the past, they're good against the run all right. They hold opposing teams to really low yars per carry average. But the Colts have won the best defensive lines in the league. Marlon Mack has run really well. I don't expect them to get shut down here. But the problem with the Steelers is really,

for me, their offense. It's not at all impressive. Under Mason Rudolph, he's been extremely subpar. He doesn't push the ball down field enough. He struggled for the most part against the Dolphins. He was largely bailed out by Juju Smith Schuster making leaping catches and some ridiculous defensive decisions that freed up Deontay Johnson on a third and twenty when the Dolphins called the blitz. They Steelers rank near the bottom of the league in passing and their run

game is good, but they're really banged up. Connor as the shoulder injury, Benny Snell jered his knee, Jalen Samuels is just coming back off the knee injury. I Meanwhile, the Colts defense is very solid on both sides of the ball. They get pressure on the quarterback consistently. They've got nineteen sacks on the year, and the Steelers are good at protecting Rudolph. But I imagine there's going to be some happy feat and the Colts are also solid against

the run. Their overall numbers are a little misleading because they've been without Darius Leonard for a few games. But they've allowed just eighty three yards rushing per game over their last three games. So I think they're really doing well. And this just seems like to me, the Colts are a clearly better team. I get that they're on the road, and I realized that they nearly lost last week against the Broncos. But first, the Broncos are not nearly as

bad as their record indicates. They could easily have won three of the games that they lost, but it was really just a weird game. The Colts are rarely penalized, and I think they might have gotten hit with ten penalties last week. It was crazy. I'm basically throwing it out. You add to that the fact that the Steelers are on a short week and as I said, they're banged up, especially at running back. It's hard for me to steal to see the Steelers coming out ahead of this one.

So given the Colts laying.

tend to be more of a zone team. Now they've tried to change that this year right by bringing in Minka Fitzpatrick and drafting a linebacker early so that they could play more man concept. But I still think that Bersett's going to be able to stand back there and make the correct read in this game. And on the other side of the ball, Mason Rudolph is horrendous getting great protection on Monday night. He's just the first interception,

he had a beautiful pocket. He sat back there and patted the ball for several seconds before making the worst decision possible and handing the ball to the Dolphins. You can do that against the historically bad team and get away with the victory and they damn near covered fourteen in the process as well, But you can't do that against a good football team, and that's what the Colts are. And beyond all of this, this is one of the largest coaching this matches you'll see this weekend. Mike Tomlin

against frank Reich. Frank Reich was the architect of everything that the Eagles did, and he's taken a Colt's roster and elevated it to a point where it should not be post Andrew Locke. So yeah, the Colts, this will steam up closer to three. I don't think it'll ever get to the key number of three. But if you like the Colts in the spot, you should take them as soon as possible.

and it's not moving significantly. I mean the number I'm looking just sort of at the amount of money that's being put on it, and you know, the number of bets the money being put on it is essentially less in terms of percentages than the number of bets, So you know, are we missing something here? Is because I really would have expected this to move by now.

that direction? So I definitely understand those concerns. But I think when you're working with numbers between the field goals, right, and again, I don't think this number will ever get to three. I think eventually it'll creep up as they try to get more money on Steelers to balance the books a little bit. I think our concerns can be levied a little bit because it's it's not near a

key number. It won't reach a key number. I think as long as it doesn't steam through pick right then, I think, you know, alarm bells should be going up. Right now, I think we're okay.

at this point. It just seems to me that, you know, I would want to hammer this number right now at plus one, so I would feel like, you know, or at minus one, so I feel like in the end, I'm just surprised that they're leaving it there and that they aren't getting quite as much money at this point. But again, we'll seek and you know, I'm certainly confident

enough in it to pick it now. All right, So let's recap here, Rich, You're gonna take the Redskins getting ten from the Bills, the Bears getting five from the Eagles, and the Raiders laying two to the Lions. I'm going to take the Jets and Dolphins over forty one and a half, the Colts laying one to the Steelers, and the Eagles Bears under forty two. Before we move on, let's talk about BETMGM. All right. BETMGM is our sponsor, so you hear me tell you about them a lot.

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single one of these offers is free money everyone. Brady has been shut out twice in his entire career, which as a Jets fan both Rich and I can regrettably say has lasted forever. And even if, by some act of nature, one of these bets does not win, then you've lost a dollar. What's the big deal? So download the app, use our promo code Harris, and throw a party after the Patriots first point on Sunday. You must

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going to happen. And from a pure numbers standpoint, analyzing this game, looking how poor Seattle has been at home, they failed to cover in four games that week, one game against the Bengals. The Bengals are one of the worst teams in football, and somehow they stuck with them at CenturyLink. The Hawks secondary is no longer the legion of boom. You should for sure be taking this six and a half or six whatever number you're getting. Classic tickets are on the Seahawks sixty percent. Clip money is

on the Bucks sixty eight percent. Clip Everything is telling you take Tampa Bay, but I can't do it.

I'm not I'm staying away from whatever. The Bucks. When the Bucks played the Titans, it was perfect because those are two teams that I said to like, I don't know, I don't know. I'm not going anywhere near them. I agree, this line looks pretty nice, it looks good for the Bucks. But no, you can't ever trust Jameis Winston. You can't

trust anything that they're doing whatsoever. I mean, I'm completely in agreement with you on this one because you just don't know which one is going to shut up a show up.

And the thing is, when I look at the game, especially with Hollywood Brown looking likely to play here, I do think it favors the Ravens, or at least it did when they were getting more than a field goal. But I kind of think the Patriots blow up all narratives and expectations at this point. The defense is legitimate, and when you have a quarterback like Lamar Jackson's primary weapon is his legs, I just think that that is something that Bill Belijack can find a way to scheme around.

So first, I think that all the value has kind of been sucked away now that the line is down

to an even field goal. But even if I did see value, I would stay away because I just don't see how you can possibly bet against the Patriots giving anything within four points at this point, given that they've There's just been so much value the last couple of weeks, you know, when you looked at the and you looked at the Browns and those spreads, and there was so much value, and sharp betters have been all over those

plays and the Patriots have still covered. So for me, I understand why there's a lot of sharp money coming in on the Ravens. It was that I like them at four, but I still would not have bet them almost. You know, it's sort of the opposite with Winston. You don't know what you're gonna get with Winston. I know what I'm gonna get with the Patriots, and it scares the bejeebas out of me, and I just don't feel comfortable betting against them. So I'm avoiding the Patriots. Laying three did the Ravens.

a Patriots defensive score. These things are almost predictive now for the New England Patriots, and it's just never the spot to fade them. Even as all the money poured in on Cleveland last week and that number steamed through the key number of ten and down to nine, it did not matter. You don't make money fading, Bill Belichick.

You never have, you never will. And like the Bucks, the Patriots are the ultimate stay away from me unless I'm betting on them, because I'm just done with fading the Pats at all costs.

All right, so you're avoiding the Bucks getting six from the Seahawks, I'm avoiding the Ravens getting three from the Patriots. Before we get into our final segment, remember we've got a signed Odell Beckham junior helmet giveaway contests going on. Get more details over at bettingpros dot com slash contest, but to be entered, just leave very review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and senda a screenshot

of that review to contest at Bettingpros dot com. And the Odell Beckham Junior helmet comes from our friends over at Pristine Auction, where they have a ton of incredible stuff to bid on and hundreds of auctions daily. Check them out over at p R I S T I n E auction dot com and if you sign up using our registration code Betting Pros, you get a free five dollars voucher. All right, Rich, time for Top prop where we list our top player prop of the week.

Bill Belichick. His method is always to kill the snake, you take off the head, and in this case it would be Lamar Jackson. I'm going to take the under on fifty nine and a half rushing yards from Lamar Jackson. That is a suspiciously low number. And I do believe that in these scenarios where you have very low outlier type prop lines even totals as well, that you usually

want to go on the side that it's on. In this case, it's low, So your mind is saying take the over, but I in fact would take the under. That's what the Patriots are going to focus on in this game, right, They're going to make Lamar Jackson throw against the secondary they're going to build a wall with their front seven, not allow him to get out and scamper.

You look at the way they defended Leveon Bell. Historically, Leveon likes to take those two steps and then stop and then read the zone blocking scheme and then go from there. Well, if you watch how the Patriots defended him, historically, they don't get up the field on Leveon. They don't fire into their gaps and then react to him. They kind of just stand up and hold their positions and then fall into the zone wherever he's running. So if you watch, Leveon never got tackled for loss a lot

against the Patriots because they didn't want to get upfield. Rather, they would stop him, you know, two yards down the field, three yards and make him ineffective in that fashion. And I think I don't care that John Harbaugh had an extra week to prepare this for this game. I think Bill Belichick is somebody who's been scheming for Lamar Jackson the entire season, knowing how important this game will be

and how important their future playoff game might be. So with all that being said, give me the under on fifty nine and a half rushing yards for Lamar Jackson.

a lot of QB rushing props. I don't know why. Like I always see when I do my projections, which I do a lot, especially for fantasy football, if I find a number that I think is just drastically different than what I'm getting on the prop, which I do often, I will take them. But it's scary with a guy like Jackson because again, they can hold him totally in check.

It's like when you would bet against Tyreek Hill ever right, like you can hold him totally in check, and then there's one play that's just gonna go off despite the fact that they schemes so well. So that would be my only worry for it, but I agree it seems like a low number, but I do like it because you know that's exactly what they're gonna do.

So let's make that clear. This is not something that I'm necessarily expecting to happen. He has done it twice in his entire career, so this is certainly something where the only reason to take it is because you are getting more than four to one on your money. But again, the Jets offense, this is you know, to the extent the Jets offense can quote unquote get right. This is what they're going to do here. Without Xavian Howard, it's going to be there's nobody who's really going to be

able to hang with him. You saw against the Cowboys, you know, I think it was a ninety two yard touchdown catch. They he can have an explosive play at any given time. They do have chemistry, which they showed last year. And this is completely anecdotal, so it really doesn't matter. But you know, there were all these trade rumors and you expected him to go, and you know, you have the trade rumors with someone like Jamal Adams who doesn't get traded and is now really angry, really

angry at being dangled. After the trade deadline passed, Robbie Anderson put out a great tweet where he took the scene from The Wolf of Wall Street where Leonardo DiCaprio is basically saying I'm not going anywhere. I'm not going like a very sort of adamant thing, and the Jets liked it, you know, on the Jets Twitter feed liked it. I just feel like this is something where you know, a guy like Adams, you might get a little worried about how he's going to react to this. Robbie, I

don't think so. Robbie strikes me as the type of guy who's gonna want to say, that's right, you held me, you did the right thing here. I think this is just going to be a smash spot for Le'Veon Bell. I think it's gonna be a smash spot for Robbie Anderson. So one hundred and twenty five is a big number. As I said, he's only done it twice, but at plus four to twenty five, that's a that's a number

that's value enough for me to go with it. So I'll take Anderson over one hundred and twenty five receiving yards against the Dolphins.

betting show. So hopefully we'll be right for this one. But you know, we've got a long way to go before we're going to be really happy watching our team. Well, thanks for joining me today. Rich. Remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.

breaking down the early lines for week ten. I'm mine