Best NFL Week 8 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 21)

for you because you will never get it right. I A I N m ac Os. He can explain that if you'd like. Ian, Thank you for joining me today. How's it going.

the Bills and the Dolphins under forty and a half. Now, I did hit on the top prop, which was Leonard Fournette over one hundred and twenty four yards rushing at plus two fifty, so hopefully that made up for a bit our guest. Meanwhile, Matt Perrault was not much better. He missed on both the Eagles plus two and a half against the Cowboys and the Jets getting nine and a half from the Patriots. He did hit in the Colt Slang one to the Texans, and that was after

again a near perfect week the week before. So let's just jump back on the horse and get this nonsense straight out. It sounds like you're ready to go, so we're gonna get right into it. Okay. As always, We're gonna get started with pick six, where both Ian and I are going to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread or on the over under. And as always, I'm gonna know that we're recording this on Thursday night, so we will not be

making any picks on the Vikings Redskins game. But if you want to see how I picked that game, you can go to betting pros dot com. That's gonna show you how I and every single betting expert who makes picks on the site made their picks for that In every game, we are also going to be using the bettingpros dot Com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds that you're gonna find available in the market, so they're constantly shifting depending on where things

are at the various sportsbooks. All right, Ian, let's go start us off with's your first pick here?

I do think they're gonna make the playoffs. I think they're gonna be a wildcare team, but they're going up against an Eagles team that's on the other side of things where they're undervalued, especially after that ugly performance against the Cowboys there on Sunday Night. We need to judge teams based on talent, and you need to not let recent games affect you. The weird thing about betting on the NFL that not a lot of people really talk about have mentioned is that the sample size is so small.

In like the MLB season, I would never place a bet until at least ten to fifteen games into the season, and the NFL we get sixteen games total before the playoffs, so it's a small sample size. So you can't let recent games affect your bias. So that's what I'm doing here. The Eagles are the more talented and skilled team over the Bills in my opinion. Don't forget, they had a road win against the Packers this season, so they do

know how to win on the road. So I like the Eagles, especially as a slight underdog in the spot, so give me them plus one point five in Buffalo.

definitely under consideration for me. One of the things that kind of stuck out to me is that the one and a half points spread, you know, given the fact that I mean, I guess the Bills didn't look that great this weekend against Miami, but you know, they certainly did what they need to do, and the Eagles looked absolutely horrendous right against Dallas. The line did not move.

Usually after something like that, like with the Jaguars and the Jets, where the Jets immediately lost a point and a half on the spread and where the Patriots moved up about three points on the spread, you know, given what the public's going to react to it, the Eagles and the Bills didn't move. They were at one and a half before that game, they were at one and

a half after that game. So that is a sign to me that in the end, you know, at least, the odds makers are probably feeling relatively bullish on where they mark the Eagles going in and when you look at the Bills, I too in the preseason. As I remind Jason Logan whenever he comes back on this podcast, I like them over. I believe it was six and a half wins. I felt pretty good about them especially, but that was a lot of it because of their

schedule and when you look at who they've played. They've played the Jets, they played the Giants, they've played the Bengals, they've played the Dolphins. It's not exactly a murderer's role here. So I am inclined to go with you. I'm a little glad that you took it so I didn't have to because I feel just a little skittish. It doesn't look like the Shan Jackson is coming back. The Eagles just look like they are in disarray. But the big thing about the Eagles, for me at least, was they

can really stop the run. Right, That's the one thing that they have been able to do well consistently this whole season. They really struggle in the secondary, but that's not exactly where Josh Allen and his you know wildly inaccurate. Arm is really going to make his mark, So I'm certainly inclined to agree with you.

I talked about this a bit with Alex kalo J when we were talking when we were taking a look at the opening lines on Monday, and six struck us as a little bit too high. Now it ad dropping to about five right about when we were about to record, and for that I got a little iffy on it. But it's back up to six and I feel pretty good about it. The Panthers, to me, are just a

very very good football team. They've won four straight and they're coming off a bye here, and I think with this offense we kind of forgot how good it can be when Norv Turner came on board. Remember there were six and two last year before Cam Newton got hurt, and he was having a very solid year with an excellent completion percentage before the injury. Then he just couldn't throw to finish last year. He couldn't throw to start

this year. So obviously things look stagnant. But now you've got Kyle Allen in there, and he's not a superstar by any means, but he is a capable quarterback who can move the ball complete shorter passes, and that's really all they need with extra time to prepare coming off the by the extra time also gets them healthier here. I mean, it sounds like Turner is going to be back from his angle in on their offensive line, which

should be a boost. The secondary looks like they'll get back Dwantae Jackson, and they've had a great pass defense all year anyway. James Bradbrier has played extremely well. Ross Cockrell has picked it up with late. So it used to be like you couldn't you didn't want to pass on them, you'd attack them on the ground. But they've cleaned that up a little bit over recent weeks. They were able to get pressure and I think in this matchup particularly that's important because the forty nine ers are

pretty beat up on their offensive line. And when you look at the forty nine ers, who are of course undefeated for the most part, they have not been great offensively, especially lately. I mean, they've been winning with their defense. You want to throw out last week because it was in the monsoon against the Redskins. I'm fine with that, but they didn't put up a ton of points the week before that against the Rams. It's mostly just the defense.

Now they've added Emmanuel Sanders. That's fine, but I mean he's gonna play, but he's not gonna be able to, you know, play the whole game. He doesn't know the playbook, yet they're down Deebo Samuel probably Marky's Goodwin is dealing with the concussion. And you know, again they've been winning, but that injury to Kylie Uscheck. When you look at their running game, how they've been it has really impacted it. The fact that they're winning kind of masks all that.

Even though the volume is still there with their running backs. I mean, Tevin Coleman in particular, is getting a lot of carries. It's not a great yard per carry average. They're not moving the ball all that well. In the end, this just strikes me as a really really close game with the Panthers coming off of bye. Again, if it was four four and a half, which is where it looked like it had been moving at the time that we recorded on Monday, I was a little iffy on it.

But at six, I'm gonna take that.

the other team's not playing well. But I'm still on that point where I'm just gonna I'm gonna bet against the forty nine ers because I just don't think they are as good as the record shows. So I like that pick.

and their offensive line is terrible. And then the Redskins, so it's not this murderers row that they've gone through a little bit like we're talking about with the Bills. So for me, I'm willing to take the value here because I've really much more been impressed with Carolina. All right, let's move on to your second pick. What do you got.

Monday night. He's seeing ghosts, So I don't.

as points per game. I think they're twentieth in the league at twenty point six points per game. But they're not really like this air raid offense. Gardner Minsho's like he's a real game manager. They slow the game down. They've been feeding Leonard Fournett quite a bit, which, of course, you know, if they run the ball, that keeps the clock moving. The quicker the clock moves, the less opportunity there are for points scored, and that's when unders usually hit.

And Jaguars are eighth in time of possession as well, so that kind of proves that fact, and between the two teams for their average combined scores, that Jets are averaging combined score in their games at thirty six point five Jaguars at forty one point seventy one combined points per game, So both teams would have to have an above average mark compared to the rest of games this season for that total to go over. So I like the under forty one. There. I'm just kind of a

I like unders in general. I pretty rarely bet overs in the NFL, just because I think books kind of entice it to take overs because they're funder to bet, so I just kind of like to go in the opposite side of that. I like taking under. So this is my favorite underspot for the week with the Jet, Jets and Jags.

a relatively close scoring game. The Jets, look, I mean CJ. Mosley may probably you know, reinjured his growing. I don't know if he's gonna play here. But either way, even without him, the Jets are pretty solid against the run. That's the one thing that they've been able to do well this year on defense. And with that, you know, the Jaguars they want to rely on Fournette, Minshew magic. I mean it's fading a little bit. I mean, you know, a Djhark has been good. Dede Westbrooks ceiling was a

little bit of an injury. I think he's gonna play, But you know, it's not as if they have this explosive passing game, which is really in the end where you're able to attack the Jets. As for the Jets, they're not gonna look as inept offensively as they looked against the Patriots. Hopefully, you know, the offensive line coach is either fired or they understand that sometimes you have

to shift protection. I do expect a little bit of a bounce back here, but again, you know they're in Selmo they've got Robbie Anderson on the trade block already. I don't expect this to be some sort of, you know, magical offensive game. The Jaguars are solid on defense as well, so overall, I agree with you here. I like the under end. It's not one of my picks, but if you're thinking thinking about it, I will say that I personally do like the Jets a little bit getting six.

I think that recency bias is something, especially with how terrible they looked it was at four and a half before the game. I think people, you know, the line moves immediately after a game like that. But in the end, I think there is value with the Jets of six. But I'm with you so far together. Unfortunately, Look, I don't want to, you know, make you feel bad, but I was with Matt on all three of his picks last week and he basically he whiffed, So it might

be the kiss of death for you here. All right, So on to my next pick number two. I'm interested to see what you think about this one, because I could see you not being fond of this. But I'm gonna stick with the spreads here and I'm going to take the Chiefs getting three and a half at home against the Packers. This is another line that I liked on Monday. It was at four, but as long as it's above the key number of three, I'm still on board with it. Now, the look aheadline before the Mahomes

injury was Chiefs by four. So this has swung more than a full touchdown and it's crossed two key numbers here, right, I mean it crossed from the Chiefs laying three to the Chiefs getting three. The public is probably going to go on the Packers here, which should immediately throw up some warning signs. We all know about Andy Reid's success off of buye. Now he doesn't actually have a buye here, but he has the mini bye with the Thursday night game.

And look, forget about Patrick Mahomes practicing so far. He's not gonna play this week. He's definitely gonna be out at least this week, probably next week two. But Matt Moore, I mean, he's not in the same conversation as Mahomes, don't get me wrong, But in terms of backup quarterbacks in the league, and of course this comes from a guy who was watching Luke Falk be the backup quarterback

for his team all season. Matt Moore is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, and he's got ten days of full practice with the first team of offense. Mahomes is taking second team reps. They're still Tyreek Hill, there's still Travis Kelcey. It sounds like Sammy Watkins is going to come back. The Chiefs are at home, They're

starting to get a little bit healthier. And really, when you look at it, the Chiefs gave a pretty dominant defensive performance against the Broncos on Thursday night, So you might want to, you know, write that off and say, well, the Broncos stink, But really, no other defense had shut them down like that, particularly not in Denver, and particularly not on a short week. And you look at why the Broncos drove right down the field right on that

first drive they scored. They were shut down the entire rest of the game. And why is that? It looked, I mean, I was watching that closely, it looked like the Chiefs just got a little more aggressive. They started calling more blitzes, probably because they don't usually play as aggressively when they have Mahomes in there, because so long as they can just kind of hang around in there. They've got enough offense to win the game. But you

know the blitzing. When they got more aggressive here because they needed to, because they figured it was going to be closer, it really worked for them, and I think they'll at least continue with a more aggressive approach, especially with Chris Johnes practicing and looking likely to return. On the other side, the Packers are great, okay, but they're still going to be down Devonte Adams. I'm sure I know right now he's you know, fifty to fifty or

whatever they're calling him. I highly doubt he's going to play. And this game against the Raiders, you know, a team with no defense whatsoever, was really the first time that they looked dominant offensively. And then you know, the receivers were barely involved last week, Like NBS caught two long passes and that's it. It was mostly these passes to

the running backs. Defense they're slipping a little bit. You can beat them on the ground, you've always been able to this year, but they're starting to be a little vulnerable a bit in the passing game. You saw that with Oakland, who could have put up a ton of points had car not funneled through the end zone and had they not turned the ball over another time deep

in the red zone. So for me, with Andy Reid having extra time to prepare, even with the backup quarterback at home, anything above three here I'm more than happy to take. So I will take it at three and a half.

it's at home. And I mean, like you said, Matt Moore, he's not a terrible backup quarterback, and he didn't he didn't look so bad in that Broncos game when he just got thrown in there, whenever it was first quarter, second quarter, halfway through the game, whatever it was. And like you said, a little bit of half a bye week almost from Thursday night over to now, so he's gonna have time to prepare. Andy Reid's good coaching in that situation. I like that, Dick. I don't hate it.

I'm not gonna play it myself, but I don't hate it. If I had to make a play on that game, that's probably the way I'd go, at least for a side. Now we're gonna get to the player props here in a little bit, and that's kind of where my play for that game is gonna be at. But I don't hate the Chiefs.

fifty to fifty completely dead. And again so it had moved to four, it's down to three and a half because I think people are coming in strong here at least, you know, probably more of the money. As I'm looking at the breakdown, I mean the public. You're right, they're always going to be on the Packers. But again, you know the book, My know that, and I think they set the odds appropriately understanding that a lot of the public is going to like the Packers at the number.

So I will take I don't hate it, and why don't we move on to number three for you?

at odd Shark loves it. One of my co workers, Joe Osbourne, has an article all about this stat, so head over the website check that out if you want. But the stat is net yards per play. So if you don't know what net yards per play, you take the number of yards gained on offense per play, subtract the amounts of mount of yards given up per play on defense. So when you look at these two teams in that stat the Broncos around middle of the pack.

I think they're thirteen to fourteenth. Their net yards per play is zero point one, so it is positive. But the Colts, despite their record, they are fourth last in the NFL in net yards per play at minus point nine yards per play. So that tells me that despite their record, they're not quite playing the best football right now. And I think the reason why they're still winning well giving up negative point nine yards per play is because

they aren't turning the ball over. I believe they only have six turnovers this season, which is near the top of the league in that category. But in this spot, I think five and a half points is a lot. I think the Broncos are a little bit better than what people think, and I think the Colts are worse than what people think based off what their record is right now. So that's gonna be my third pick. I like getting the points there with Denver.

any chance that they're just gonna come out there? You think? And lannegg or do you not let that factor into your thinking when you're making your picks.

is basically a job interview for players and coaches. So I don't put a whole lot of value in that. What I am a little bit worried about is now teams are gonna be able to focus on Courtland Sutton a little bit more now without without Xanders there, so that does worry me a little bit, but regardless, I still like the five and a half points.

Ricohon and David Montgomery got five rushing attempts total. And I get that you don't attack the Saints on the ground, of course, but five rushing attempts is preposterous. And Matt Naggi has essentially admitted it. He got a lot of criticism. He basically said he's not an idiot. He agrees he's going to need to run run the ball more here, and I think that he's going to And that means, you know, you run the ball, as you mentioned with the Jets and the Jaguars, you run the ball. The clock,

runs drives are longer. It sets up pretty well for the under Meanwhile, the Charters are one of the slowest teams in the league. They're notorious for taking as much time off the play clock as possible. Their offense just looks completely out of sorts. A lot of it is because of their poorest offensive line that's not going well.

The Bears still have a relatively strong defense. They're easier to run against right now without akeeum Hicks, of course, but the Chargers have not been able to get their run game going regardless, so I don't expect either team to be able to put up a ton of points. This strikes me. I mean, they're both desperate. That's the only thing that has me at all worried. I feel like when teams are desperate, you never know what's going

to happen. They could get somehow creative, they could come up with something crazy and start putting up some points. But overall, this game, to me, I realized, forty is a pretty low total. But I'm pretty much looking at this as a game that has very little chance of being a blowout. It's going to be close throughout, and I think both teams are going to try to just kind of win it towards the end of the game

without putting up a crazy amount of points. So give me the Bears and the Chargers under forty.

I'm a big Falcons fan. The Falcons are absolute trash this year. After Week one, I said, I'm no longer a Falcons fan. I decided to be a Chargers fan for this season. And then the Chargers are basically just the foul of the AFC.

This was not what I struggled with. It was the first one that jumped out of me when I looked at over unders. I did you know, the Jags and the and the Jets were certainly under consideration, but this one jumped out of me. Now, look to be fair, I took the under on the Bears Saints last week that was not close, although there was a lot of fluky sort of touchdowns in that one. You know, you had the kick return for the touch and everything like that.

So you know, in the end, I feel pretty comfortable right now with us under So, you know, expert consensus whatever, I'm good with that. I'm willing to go against them every once in a while. I like it.

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hunter gambler. All right, Ian, let's move on to it's a trap where we list the lines that we are avoiding. Go ahead and start us off.

because I think they're on by next week. I don't know why you wouldn't just take the extra week of rest, But when anytime a quarterback comes back, that kind of messes with the flow of the offense. I mean, the Saints were absolutely crushing it with Teddy Bridgewater, So who knows how kind of their offense is gonna feel about Drew Brees coming back, which is weird to say, considering Drew Brees the first ballot Hall of Famer. But it does just kind of mess with game plans, it messes

with flows. So the Saints make me a little bit nervous, especially with the double digit spread there. And then on the other side of things, I don't understand Kyler Murray. I thought he was gonna be a bust and I still kind of think he is even when I watch him play. He makes throws that I don't think are the right throws to make. But he's won a couple of games and he's actually looked all like. His stats are looking all right, so it's hard for me to

completely fade him. Usually with rookie quarterbacks, it's hard to bet on them because one game will look unreal, the next game will look bad, and other NFL teams that they're playing against they usually figure out rookie quarterbacks a few games in the season, and if they can find holes or ways to exploit that rookie quarterback, then they'll

take advantage of them. I don't know if there's one there with Kyler Murray but him and it's the same with the Giants who It's the reason why I'm staying away from the Giants. With Daniel Jones back and then rookie quarterbacks just make me a little bit nervous. I don't know what I'm gonna get from them, so game to avoid. It's a trap for me. Is gonna be the Cardinals and Saints game.

played well. Why not give in the buy to make sure he's good. I think in the end that is what they're gonna do. But I agree with Murray. It's like, I don't know exactly what I'm gonna see With Murray. I like a lot of what I've seen of him, but it's still very much of I like the way he looks early when every play is scripted for him, and then when he goes off a little bit because they've run out of like Okay, this is what you're

gonna do for your first fifteen plays. It's a little bit like, Okay, you're kind of all over the place. Some of it's good, some of it's not good. I don't really know. The Saints have a very tough defense, but when you're over ten on the line, it just, you know, it's something that makes me very uncomfortable. So this is certainly a game I'm not gonna go near. So I like it with you.

be playing, and I think it's gonna go. So if it comes out late, my guess is it's gonna drop below ten. And in that case, you know, I could probably lean towards the Saints once it got below the key number of ten. But either way, it's just not a game that I think I really want to go against because I just don't have a good.

able to involve his wide receivers this heavily. Again, is James Winston gonna benefit from the I or is he gonna throw five picks?

savior or anything. So generally speaking, when the Titans and the Bucks get involved, because the Bucks have basically I picked the wrong version of the Bucks every single week. Every single week, I think it's gonna be uh, Doctor Jekyl, It's mister Hyde and vice versa. So for me, I'm staying far away from any game pretty much at this point involving either of these two teams. The fact that they are playing each other makes it really easy for me.

So I'm avoiding the Titans laying two and a half to the Bucks.

But to be entered, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. All right, Ian, it is time for Top Prop, where we list our top player prop for the week.

yards per carry against them. And then even if Mahomes is out, the game plan should be to keep the Chiefs off the field, because that's how we saw both the Colts and the Texans ACXU beat the Chiefs was to just completely keep the Chiefs explosive offense off the field. So what does that That includes running the ball a lot. So we can even prove that with numbers if we look at Marlon max numbers when the Colts beat the Chiefs, he had twenty nine carries in that game, which is

his season high by pretty wide margin. Same goes for Carlos High to the Texans. He had a season high twenty six carries for the Texans when they beat the Chiefs. So the blueprint has been out on how to beat the Chiefs. It's to run the ball keep their offense off the field. So Aaron Jones, I think he's going to get a lot of carries that over seventy five yard mark. I think he's gonna be able to hit

that with ease. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets over one hundred yards, to be completely honest, especially with that weak Chiefs run defense. So Aaron Jones over seventy five rushing yards, Yeah, I like it.

that was kind of the blueprint. Now, I don't necessarily know if the team has to stick to that blueprint right now, because the whole point of basically being like, let's keep Patrick Mahomes off the field by running the ball and controlling the clock is not really in play here. Considering More is going to be the starter almost certainly, But I don't really think that that matters that much. I mean, look, Rogers accounted for six touchdowns last week. He threw five, I believe in ran in for one.

That's not what they want to do. I mean, that's not the way the Packers really want to do this. They have a very strong defense, which is getting a little weaker as I mentioned. But again, Matt Moore is not gonna light this up. I mean, they're gonna be a play or two to Tyreek Hill where he's gonna break one or something like that, but in the end, they're not gonna put up a crazy amount of points. I don't think this is one where the Packers are gonna come out firing. I think they are gonna lean

on Jones and Williams to the extent. But I think, you know, as we have now seen some sanity restored, it's probably gonna be Jones leaving the way significantly over here. So yeah, I don't hate that at all. Jones over seventy five rushing yards'm minus one twelve in particular. I'm good to go with that, I am. I'm gonna go a little riskier, okay, I'm gonna go with Dante Johnson to go over seventy five yards receiving at plus one point ninety. Now Johnson is two full games here with

Mason Rudolf. He's got fifty two yards receiving against the forty nine ers, seventy seven yards receiving against the Bengals, and now he gets the Dolphins. So I'm not gonna lie to you, Ian. The Dolphins are bad. They allow thirteen point six yards per catch, that is the most

in the NFL, and I get it. There's certainly a risk here that the Steelers are just gonna run all day, that it's just gonna be James Connor all day, or Benny Snell or whatever they want to do, because the Dolphins are probably not gonna be able to put up a ton of points. Although to be fair, Ryan Fitzpatrick made that offense look semi competent against a very tough Bills defense last weekend, so it's possible that the Dolphins put up at least a few points here that make

the Steelers throw. But in the end, what I really think it is is that I think the Steelers probably want to use this game to get Rudolph a little confidence as he returns back to the field from that

massive hit that gave him a concussion. So I think this is exactly the spot to do it at pretty much two for one for your money, given the connection that Johnson has shown with Mason Rudolf, especially one of those games was against the forty nine Ers, a very tough defense I'm gonna take Johnson to go over seventy five yards receiving at plus one ninety.

a pretty good connection between Rudolph and Johnson. So I do think this is something where, you know, even though they will run a lot, I think they're gonna want to try to at least get Rudolph that comfortable, have him make some more throws rather than the gimmicky offense that we've kind of seen a little bit. Just to you know, this is like essentially the softest matchup that you can have so I think they're gonna try to take advantage of that as best they can. All right,

that is going to do it for today's show. Thanks again for joining me.

into our Odell Beckham Junior signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this weekend, we'll be back breaking down the early lines. For Week nine on Monday,