Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. It is time to break down some of our favorite and least favorite bets for the Week seven NFL slate, And with me to talk about it all is Matt Perrault, host of Pushing the Odds on SB Nation Radio and The Better Network and a ton more which I could list, but then we'd be like an hour and a half show.
You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, thanks for joining me today. How you doing.
I appreciate it.
I'm great. Thanks for the invite. Always great to talk to somebody in New England.
Yeah, I know, we were just talking about it. We are, you know, Matt's not not near me anymore, but we would have been roughly, like, I don't know, like twenty minutes away at one point in our lives had we met at a different point. But for now we're pretty far away. But thanks to advancements and technology, you'd never know it if we didn't tell you. So anyway, let's get right into it. We had a pretty profitable week.
Last week, our guest Jared Smollett nailed both the Falcons Cardinals over fifty one and the Jets getting seven from the Cowboys, as well as his top prop bet, which was Matt Ryan over three hundred and fifty passing yards at plus one forty six, which he barely squeaked by. His only miss was on the Chiefs slaying four to
the Texans. As for me, I hit on all four of my picks, which included the absolutely grotesque Dolphins getting three and a half from the Redskins, the Jaguars and Saints under forty three and a half, the Jets and the Cowboys over forty four, and Stefan Digs over fifty nine and a half yards at minus one fourteen, which he narrowly cleared by eleventy billion yards. Now it is up to you, Matt, to keep us going. How confident are you on a scale of.
Like one to forty eight on what game just.
In might no, just generally, if you're going to be able to do a perfect Look, man, we don't go. We don't go like half ass. Here we go all the way. Are you ready to have the clean sweep? Get all three of your bets plus your top proper Are you ready? Yeah?
I mean, well yeah, given my week last week was horrendous, So I started off red hot, I went ten and not to start the year out of the NFL, and and then as you know, as what happens, you come crashing down to earth, and all of my handicapping acumen, all of my narrative explaining all those games I thought where I had teams backed up against the wall at home, either as small as small favors or small underdogs. You know, Chiefs, the Rams, and the Browns all let me down brutally
last week. So I'm I'm hoping to bounce back, and hopefully this show will help you help me get back on the winning track.
Yeah, I mean, I'll be honest, because I'm an honest guy. I like to have credibility with the listeners. The three bets that I listed, not even including the prop bet with Digs, were you know, three of my better bets for the week.
It was.
It was a rough week overall, I think, generally speaking, but it was for a lot of people. And so we're gonna, we're gonna definitely bounce back right here, you and I we're gonna Now we're gonna go eight for eight on all our picks, even the ones we'll avoid. We'll just be like obviously nobody wants to get into that. But before we get into it, I do want to announce the winner of the Alvin Kamara helmet giveaway. Congratulations to Nick from Massachusetts. Nick has already been notified and
the helmet is on its way way to go. Nick, thanks for listening. Now, if you did not win the Kamara helmet, well, how would you like to win a signed Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet, Because that is this month's contest. To be entered, just leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and senday screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And of course, if
you entered a previous contest, you're automatically entered here. All right, As always, we're gonna get started with Pick six, where both Matt and I are going to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread or on the over under. Now, as always, I will note at the outset that we were recording this on Thursday night, shortly after Patrick Mahomes hurt his knee. So we're not going to be making any picks on the
Chiefs Broncos game. But if you want to see how I picked that game, you can go to Bettingpros dot com. That is going to show you how I and every betting expert who makes picks on the site made their picks for that and every game. Matt and I are also going to be using the bettingpros dot Com consensus odds here in making our picks. So those are the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market. All right, Matt, start us off, what is your first pick?
All right?
So let's talk first on what I think It's going to be an important game for the sports books. It's going to come down to Sunday nights, and so what I do on my show, I have the fortunate of being in Las Vegas. I work actually out of a sports book in the Palms, working very closely with CG Sportsbooks, so I have the ability to talk to these guys in what they think they're going to need.
And you know, there was a famous line back in the day about a year ago.
Actually G two E is the Gaming Global Gaming Conference actually this week here in Las Vegas. But a year ago, Scott Van Pelt made a very controversial comment by saying he wanted to be on the side of the books, which I don't really think is that bad of a comment, but people flipped out. Pros flipped out saying, I don't care what the books need, but generally speaking, it's not bad to be on the side of the sports books. Over the last three weeks, the books have absolutely crushed
the public. So let's go to a game, which the Sunday night game, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. This is where the Dallas Cowboys, everyone who loves Dallas says they can't lose in the game in a row. They're at home. There's no way short number. Here we go, but the Eagles, and I know that does. Shawn Jackson situation is an interesting one to watch. And I'd feel more comfortable if we knew that Amari Cooper was not going to play, and we knew that Shaan Jackson was
going to play. But let's just assume all trends are pointing towards one. Yes Jackson playing, no, even if he does play, like last week, he was in for three snaps and it was really big detriment to the offense for the for the Dolphins. I am going to take some short numbers here because of most of these week weeks are short numbers. I like the Eagles here plus three on the road at Dallas.
I think this is a field goal.
Game, but I think you want to play the money line. I don't hate it. I think this is an Eagles bounce back spot. There's some real problems with Dallas. Their offensive line is really banged up, and if that's if that part of their game is banged up, I just don't think they're effective. They can't run the football, and I've never liked Dak Prescott personally. So you've got some injuries with skilled players. You can't use Elliott the way
you want to. That defense is not good enough. I think the Eagles win outright, but I'll take the three points on Sunday Night football.
So the consensus odds very recently has just moved to two and a half. But I assume you like them there since you're willing to take them out right, and I could not agree with you anymore. And it's a little scary this game, right, This game is a dream. I mean, there's gonna be so much money on Sunday Night too, Right, you're gonna have betters who have just gotten crushed and are gonna try to make it all back. But of course you've got two very prominent teams. I
completely agree with you. Now, I see almost no chance that Amari Cooper plays. I don't think he practiced either Wednesday or Thursday. They got to buy coming up. I just I can't see him playing. So I'm basically assuming that he's going to be out, and I think that that drastically changes what the Cowboys offense looks like. As we saw essentially in the first what seven games of last season, they are not anywhere near the same team.
Do we know whether or not Lell Collins and Tyron Smith are going to play here on the offensive line. Have they practiced yet?
Yeah, they're both questionable, but leaning towards not playing. So I mean it's trending in that way as we as we record this here on you know, way before the week begins, but on a Thursday. But they're trending towards not playing. It's not good for the injuries right now for the Cowboys.
Yeah, especially if they don't play. Forget about it, because the one thing the Eagles can do. Their defense has been banged up, but they can stop the run. They've been stopping the run all year. You can pass on them. But right now, if you're going to take away a Marii Cooper, if you're going to weekend that offensive line for the Cowboys as it has been in recent weeks, then I just don't see them really being able to
move the ball all that well. You know, and the Eagles are starting to get a little healthier in their secondary. I don't know whether or not all the injured guys are going to come back yet, but in the end, I'm one on board with you in this one. The fact that it's two and a half now not three does not matter to me.
I agree.
I think they win this game out right. I Mean it gets me a little, you know, worried being in Dallas. It's primetime. But overall, I'm with you, as are the experts on our site. Sixty seven percent are with Philly on this one, so we're in agreement on that one. I'm going to start with an over under, and that
is the Saints and Bears under thirty eight and a half. Now, our guest Jared Smallas said last week that he could not even envision a number that could be high enough for him to not grab the over in the Falcons Cardinals game. I kind of feel the same way about the under here. I mean, you can drop it down to thirty and I'd be like, well, yeah, maybe I could see it going. I mean, you've got obvious injury concerns on both sides here, right. Alvin Kamara misspractice again today.
He is dealing with both a high ankle sprain and a knee injury. And Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears might come back from a shoulder injury, but you've got certainly some chance for reinjury even if he does. And I'm not even convinced that he's necessarily an upgrade over Chase Daniel at this point, but regardless, this pick is not rocket science. So okay, you've got two teams with extremely
strong defenses. Bears are coming off a bye following a game in which the defense played extremely against the Raiders in London. They've lost the team Hicks. That is a big loss, given how badly though that they were gashed by Jacobs a lot because Hicks was out. But you know that They're going to put much more of an emphasis on stopping the run here. Even if Kamara plays, he's not going to be one hundred percent. I don't trust that Latavius Murray is gonna be able to do
all that much. And with a pass rush, I mean, the Bears can get to the quarterback with the best of any team. They've gotten eight point two percent sack rate this year. They're best in the league with a thirty four point one percent QB pressure percentage. And Bridgewater is going to come back down to Earth. He's going to continue to need to check down every game, except for that stupid Bucks game where they just aired it out, because that's the way you attack them. The Bears defense
is going to be ready for all these checkdowns. And I get that the Saints put up thirty one points against the Buck Other than that with Bridgewater, the offense has put up nineteen points against the Seahawks. They put up more with you know, turnovers and defense and stuff. But the offense nineteen points, twelve points against the Cowboys, thirteen points against the Jaguars. I just cannot see them
moving the ball or putting up points. And on the flip side, the Saints defense is really strong eleventh best against the past, fourteenth best against the run, but they've been pretty dominant against the ground games since Sheldon Rankins came back, so I don't really expect the Bears to be able to move much with David Montgomery and the passing game. I mean, come on, it's just Alan Robinson is the only bright spot. He's gonna draw Marshau Lattimore.
The Saints get to the quarterback their third and QB pressure percentage. It's a defensive game. It's in Chicago. It seems pretty obvious to me. I mean, thirty eight and a half is a low number, but for me, I don't really think it's gonna come close to that. So I'll take the under on thirty eight and a half. My number two, Yeah, go for number two. Go for it, all right?
So my number two here, and I have a I just have to get one of these Texans picks right, because I have been getting these games wrong with the Texans. But I always feel like I've got the right narrative. I always feel like I've got the right stats to back it up. I feel like I'm looking at the game correctly, and then something happens in the Texans for some crazy way they're able to cover. I'm gonna go with the Colts and the Texans here, and look, the line opened up two and a half.
It's kind of swung around.
I'm not sure where you guys have a consensus, but let's just play a Colts minus one, right, It's pretty.
Much that's where it is. Okay, that's where it is.
Yeah, general, I know where that number is. So here.
Historically speaking, the Colts coming off of a bye have not been great, but this is a different type of Colts team, and I think they needed to get t Y Hilton and they needed to get Mac healthy, and I believe both those guys are going to benefit a ton for having the extra time off to get them ready to go for this game. The Texans are coming off an incredibly emotional win against Kansas City, and I am not Look, I'm from andover Massachusetts. I'm not so
far from where you run. Bill O'Brien's from andover Massachusetts. So maybe I'm blinded by that saying I'm not a very big Bill O'Brien fan by never really have been a big Bill O'Brien fan. As a head coach, and I don't think this team can go back to back weeks and get monster victories on the road like this. I think the Colts off of a bye, come and get a big victory. So far this year, they're three to one and one against the spread. This is a
team that can run the football. I think they can take advantage of the of the things that the Texans defense doesn't do great.
They've got to protect the football.
But I'm a Jacoby Brissett has played really, really well and they are a different team when they've got t Y Hilton healthy. He should be healthy for this football game. I like the Colts money line minus one doesn't really matter. I think the Colts at home win this football game and beat the Texans.
I promise you. I don't just blindly agree with our guest picks when they come on, but I one hundred percent i'm with you. I assume are you in the Westgates Super Contest. I don't know if you are, but Circa yeah, okay, Cirka, yeah, all right, So I'm in the super Contest. I guarantee. I'm not gonna guarantee, I guess because I like to do mine really on Friday when I go through. But I'm sure these are going to be both the ones you named are going to be two of my picks because I really really like
both of them. Yeah, I mean the Texans. The Texans are great. I think the the injuries uh you know to the offensive line that they just sustained this past weekend is going to hurt a little bit. But either way, yeah, this is this is a different team. Man. The Colts are you know, off of by they're getting healthy. Darius Leonard has cleared the concussion protocol. That makes a huge, huge difference in the run game. And and I like the Texans. What I love about the Colts and I
mean they're they're so incredibly well coached. Okay, they they've got great you know, they've got great personal They've got a fantastic offensive line. They're very solid on defense. But you know, against the Chiefs, they totally switched it up and played man, right, I mean, they're like more of a zone team, and they switched it up and played men. I think they can go back to zone here. They can kind of make de Shaun Watson beat them by by sort of taking away the deep stuff. But I
think this game sets up well for them. In addition to the fact that, yeah, the Texas are coming off like a huge, you know victory that that takes a lot out of a team like that when they do it, and they got another road game coming up, the Cults coming off of eye. So I agree. I was surprised because, like you said, this number has moved all over the place. I did see it at two point five earlier in the week. I don't know where it opened.
Two point two, Yeah, and then it's swung at some books all the way the Houston minus one, and pretty much the consensus here in Vegas is that the number is gonna that the public's gonna come in on whatever team is the under dog. So we'll see kind of, you know, how much professional money we see come in on this game and whether it swings it to you know,
to Houston. Because of what happened last week and the week before where they scored fifty three points, you know, the metrics are all pointing upwards in a great trajectory for the Texans given what they've done with their offense and scoring twenty points in the second quarter against the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week was pretty impressive. So a lot of people kind of looking at it that going, all right, you know, this team is trending in the right direction. But I just think this is a classic.
I sold high last week one on the Texans and got it wrong. I'm gonna sell high again on the Texans and think that the Colts are going to use that time off wisely and be able to get a very big victory in the AFC South. And you know, it's interesting because you look at the game you talked about that the New Orleans Chicago game, and how defensive
minded that both teams are in. Trubitsky is a guy that I don't trust, and I mean I don't want hundred percent trust Jacoby Presett yet, but I'm getting closer and closer to feeling like Brissett guy that week in week out. I kind of know what he's gonna do, and I kind of feel like what he You know, he's going to be able to move the football, and if not, they're gonna hand the ball off, and that great offensive line is gonna be able to move the
ball pretty much on anybody. So so one thing that Bears really don't have is a dominant offensive line to spill, you know, is to get to spell Mitchell Trubisky when he's out there running around for his life and making mistakes like crazy. So you know, it's the thing with the Bridgewater brings to the table for New Orleans, which is so great that you have Alan like Evan Kamara, but not just that, you've got his ability to pick up first downs and roll out when he needs to
and then run when he has to as well. So I mean, both those defenses are gonna feast. And I talk to a writer on my on my show Pushing the Odds who covers the Saints from New Orleans Saints dot Com, and he said that there's talking the locker room for New Orleans that they want to be the number one ranked defense in the NFL, and over the last couple of weeks they're playing like it. So playing the Bears, there's sort of this, you know, here we go.
We're gonna show you that. Look, the Raider game wasn't a fluke. You guys aren't as good as everyone says you are. But we're the real dominant team in the NFC defensively, So I can't wait to see you. I go in the Saints play that game because it could be ten to three at the final.
Oh man, well thanks for coming back to that game, because I was worried when you were just like, yeah, that's good, let's move on the next pick. They were like, nah, that's a terrible pick.
I don't even want your podcast. I'm learning everyone's podcast is definitely right. I'm getting in the fact right to do it.
You don't have to worry about it. Man, we can move right on to the next one. It doesn't matter to me.
Yeah.
Usually we you know, usually somebody comments on what it was. But it was all right. You want to get rund to your pick, which I love anyway, So it's good. I'm glad we were ready into it. So it sounds like we're on board here this one. I don't know. I think we may be a little different on this one. I don't like the big spreads. I generally just you know, I don't feel comfortable taking a favorite the big spread,
particularly on the road. But I'm going to take the forty nine ers, which is now down to nine, laying nine to the Redskins. Now, this was ten when I checked it on Monday, so you probably have some money coming in on the Redskins, I would assume, but not that much. From when I'm looking.
Nobody is at nine. So wherever you're getting nine, that's good because it's nine and a half here, so that's good to get at nine.
Yeah, I'm looking and oh yeah, it's I mean, it's all over the place. When I'm looking, the consensus odds are at nine. It's still at ten at points Bet it's at nine and a half on FanDuel. Everywhere else that I'm looking at right here has it at nine.
William Hill's ten.
Yeah, all right, see, all right, I'll see. I no value when I see it. Yeah, Now even at ten, frankly, I would still I would still take it, I think. I mean, I look, you have to always be concerned about a backdoor cover anytime you have a number this high. But I just it's difficult for me to see the
game being that close. I get, like, the only things there are the fact that the forty nine ers are coming off a monstrous win against the Rams, so that might take a little out of them, and they're coming east. I get it, I get it. But the defense is completely legitimate, and they're going to destroy Case Keenum. They've got a ten percent sack rate, third best in football. The Redskins offensive line is terrible. The forty nine ers allow nothing through the air, their best in yards per
attempt and completion percentage. They allowed one hundred and fifty point two passing yards per game, So you know Terry mclaurin's gonna get some catches. The forty nine ers are going to play zone a lot, but they're not going to be able to sustain drives through the air against this defense, nor are they going to be able to move the ball well on the ground. The forty nine Ers haven't allowed a touchdown to a running back. They
allow fewer than four yards per carry. Chris Thompson's dealing with turf tow he may miss the game and when they'll smallwood is not nearly as good an option if they's got to check down. They're just their second in total defense. They're dominant on the defense event. On the flip side, the Washington defense is pretty terrible and Jimmy Garoppolo has not lit up the stat sheet, but he just hasn't needed to. He hasn't tempted more than thirty
three passes. Because the forty nine ers are winning easily. The Redskins allow a seventy two percent completion percentage. They're not much better on the ground. They're twenty eighth in the league. They allow one hundred and thirty four rushing yards per game. Part of that is the fact that they are always behind and the opposing team just runs the ball. But they're twenty eighth in points allowed. The forty nine Ers gained four hundred eight yards per game,
fourth in the league. They put up twenty nine ze point four points per game. That's third in the league. I get it. The cross country trip, I get it. They just had this sort of, you know, emotional giant win over the Rams. This is not anything that I think is going to be remotely close. I think the forty nine ers completely blow them out of the water, and even laying nine, I'm willing to do it. You can, now, Matt, go ahead and talk about that pick and tell me why I'm wrong.
I don't think you're wrong. It's scary, but I don't think you're wrong. See, here's the thing with the forty nine ers. And I talked on my show all summer long about different teams whose win total I thought was too low, and the forty nine ers were one of the teams at eight wins.
I thought that was ridiculous.
I thought that was if they stayed healthy, if Lungs Garoppolo stayed healthy, and they kept one of their two running backs upright, that they were going to be able to run the football and move the ball. And then if their defensive line, which has five first round picks on it could just play the way that they're supposed to play, that this defense was going to be something. And I had them winning the NFC West and I have them at ten wins, so I didn't think they'd
open up five. I know, mind you, so at some point they're gonna stub their toe. But this is kind of like the Patriots and the schedule that the Patriots have had, it's just kind of lay up city. And when you're playing a team like Washington that has Bill Callahan as the head coach. And what's remarkable is that people aren't talking nearly enough about how much of a jerk Bill Callahan is and everything he's done to change. I covered him at Nebraska when he was the head
coach there, and they hated the guy. He does things that are not player friendly. Jay Gruden was the ultimate player friendly coach. Here comes Callahan. He shuts off practice, our music at practice. He makes them what run wind sprints. He's changing, you know, the locker room culture in a way. But you can't do that mid season because all the guys that were brought in are expecting to go and play for Jay Gruden, not Bill Callahan.
So that's what I love.
The Dolphins last week at plus three and a half, and I thought the team would actually lay down.
And lose on purpose.
There's no way they're gonna want to bash their head against that forty nine or defensive line and go hard here. And I don't care which are the three quarterbacks the Redskins are gonna play. They're not going to score or move the football on the forty nine ers, So to me, it's it's a I would look to the forty nine ers team total and see what that is at kickoff and see if that number is somewhat reasonable, because they're
gonna score. It's just a matter of backdoor covers and a matter of late game touchdowns when the scrubs are in for the forty nine ers. But I'm not afraid of it too much. Laying double digits even here. The Redskins are absolute trash and the forty nine Ers are a legitimate team.
And even if they're handling the balling.
Off football and just running the football in the second half, they're still going to move the football and they're still going to score points against that Redskins defense. So I don't hate it at all. And I think the Redskins are If they win another game the rest of the year, I mean, I'd be somewhat surprised. I mean, one in fifteen is very possible for that Redskins team.
I can't believe that you were on the forty nine ers ten wins in the preseason. I was not anywhere close to that. I did not expect them to be good, and it took me a long time to buy into them now. I mean honestly. I mean I had the Rams last week, and I thought that was going to be a spot where they were going to show up and kind of, you know, in a game that they really had to win and do it.
But the Rams, Yeah, I'm with you.
I was.
I was on the Rams last week.
But because I think there's a game here that we're gonna the forty nine Ers are running away with the West. I just I know the Seahawks are there, but I mean, I mean it's a team that you look at and you're like, hmm. I mean, their schedule, they're winning games you don't expect them to win. They're going on the road, They're beating the Rams. It's like, wow, like what this
is really kind of surprising. They're pounding the Browns. I mean, it's just it's sort of surprising when you kind of break it down and realize how good they've been this early in the year. So I thought they win ten games, but I didn't expect them to come out of the gate this fast. And look, if you go through their their defensive line, and Bosa's been playing incredibly well for them that you know, this number two pick overall in the last draft, but they've got four other guys who
were first round picks. The draft capital they have invested in their defensive line is ridiculous. So it's like, Okay, about time. These guys are playing this well, and Richard Sherman's playing decent in the back end, and so it's just when you have a front like this with this much talent, guys who are six foot seven that you know, shorter quarterbacks can't see over I mean Armistad and the rest of the guys.
I mean, I really, if they stayed healthy.
I was really high in the forty nine ers this year, and I mean if it's Patriots forty nine ers in Miami, it will not surprise me at all. That's what winds up being.
Yeah, absolutely, I mean it's you know, you have to assume it's going to be either them or the Saints at this point. But the forty nine ers are absolutely legitimate and they'd be a really, really scary team if they made it. All right, let's move on to your third pick. What do you got for me?
All right?
I am going to make everybody who is from New England angry, and I'm taking the Patriots and the Jets game as my third play. And I'm going to really hope CJ. Moseley plays, and I hope the extra day allows him to play, and if he can go, I like this pick even more. But even without him, I'm gonna take the points here. And if you're gonna play this game, wait for the public money to push this back to ten. It's nine nine and a half right now. For Patriots on the road on Monday Night football. I
love it at ten. If you see it at ten, hammer it, jump on it. There's a couple of reasons why. One, this is the second time the Patriots and the Jets have played each other, so the Jets have seen the Patriots offense. The Patriots offensive line is not great, and they're gonna blitz Brady like crazy. This is gonna be similar to the Buffalo Bills game.
In my opinion.
The Patriots are gonna try to run the ball and get the hell out of there. They don't need to win that game by a lot. They don't need to blow the Jets out. And as Sam Donald comes back, the entire team is different for the Jets. We saw it last week against the Cowboys. He just changes everything for them. It makes you know, average players, C level receivers become B level receivers and B become.
A and it just it affects everyone.
They're gonna get after this offensive line for the Patriots, and they're gonna get up to their wide receivers. I mean the Patriots. You look at their numbers, Yep, it's impressive. But their schedule has been a joke. Okay, let's be frank. I'm a Patriot fan. Who they've played. It's been Cupcake City.
We'll see what they do on the road against the Ravens coming up, and then they got their buy and then they have four incredibly difficult games after their bi So this is a typical Belichick game where he's gonna hand the ball off, run the ball, get out of town.
Patriots win the game.
I'm not saying they're losing, but I don't believe they're gonna cover a double digit spread on the road.
I like home teams catching.
Points in primetime, and if you're gonna give me ten, I'm almost automatically gonna take the dog without even looking at the teams. This is being a divisional game, Jets playing for pride, Sam Darnold coming back in this game. Patriots defense is very very good. I understand that, but I don't think this is a high scoring game. I don't hate to play on the under here as well on the game, but I'm gonna take the Jets plus the ten on Monday Night football.
Yeah, I am a Jets fan, so I am going to admit that from Queen's So it's all right. I mean, there's like seven of us still left around. But I live in New England, so obviously my life is terrible. But I will say this, I probably don't have enough to bet it, but I agree with you. I do the under as well. By the way, I'm both both counts. Yes, I completely. First of all, I believe Josh Gordon was ruled out already earlier this evening. I'm almost positive Mosley's
gonna play. He was at practice. He was doing mostly individual drills today, but I was watching videos of him. He looked great. I'm sure they've kind of been eyeing this game regardless of what's going on, because you know it's the Patriots, of course. And yeah, I agree, Look the Pats just the offense does not look The defense is great. It's totally legitimate. I get that they haven't played too many strong offenses, but the defense one hundred
percent legitimate. But the Jets defense surprisingly is pretty good. The front seven is really good. They stop the run, they get to the quarterback, especially with Moseley there, he's gonna be able, you know, to improve their run defense. They're weak in the secondary other than Jamal Adams. The cornerbacks are not great. But you know, that's not you know, the Pats at this point. That's the thing. They don't
have these dominant receivers right now at all. You know, it's basically Edelman, You've got who hasn't you know, has been nicked up the whole year, and he's gonna miss this game. So you know, whether or not Dorset comes back, you know, whoever they're gonna wind up throwing out there. I agree, man, I just do not see this as a game that the Patriots are going to smash them at all, as much as you know they want to because of the history, you know, and Belichick sort of doesn't.
I agree in this instance. I think they just want to get out of there. They just want to get out of there without getting too beat up and take the win. And I agree that they probably will. But with that many points at home on Monday night, the crowd's going to be crazy. Everybody's going to be excited. And I agree with you completely in Darnald, I have been really annoyed at people who have drawn any conclusions whatsoever about the Jets with Luke Falk at quarterback. It's
not like people were making these grand proclamations. But I love Darnald coming into the year, I thought he really showed a lot of growth last year. He's looked great so far. I mean, you know, the game against Buffalo. You realize how good that defense is now that we've seen them in several games. But he looked great last week. So I agree with you, man, that's a lot of points to be getting at home on Monday night. So it's at nine point five in our consensus, but I'm with you.
If it can get to ten and even nine and a half, I don't hit it either. I mean, you know, Patrick Chung left the game last week with a chest injury. He'd already been dealing with with a heel injuries. Now he's got two and he's main a main cog in that back seven for the Patriots. And Darnell had a
couple of big plays against the Cowboys last week. I mean, you know this is they play at home against the Browns next week, the Patriots do, and then they play on the road against the Ravens to get to the bye week. And the Patriots I think, are just gonna try to get to the bye They're gonna I mean, they might be undefeated when they get to the bye, But it wouldn't be crazy to me if they're eight and one when they get there. And I mean this,
they always lose one game in the AFC East. They always go it's rare they go six and oh, they always go five and one.
And they always usually in Miami.
Right, it's at Miami or it's at Buffalo. Now they've got wins in both those places already, so maybe it's the Jets here, and the Jets get the victory against the Patriots. And I've been telling people who say, like, would you bet the Patriots going sixteen or no? And I'm like, absolutely not. I mean, Belichick literally said it with Dick Saban a couple of weeks ago that he was he wished in O seven that they had lost the game.
So they're not gonna try for sixteen or no.
If he's already saying we screwed up in seven by trying to go for undefeatedn't go nineteen or oh. So they're not interested in that. They just won another championship ring And you know, Brady, you pressure him, as we know you pressure him. You make a move in the pocket, and that's how you stop this Patriot offense. And frankly, they missed Gronkowski. I mean, it's just it's obvious that they miss an over the middle, big body guy in the red zone. And they've got three good running backs,
but it depends. I mean, really, it's Ivy Beholder with Sony Michelle because he doesn't break tackles. He's great in the open field, but he's not a between the tackles runner. And Rex burkehead was nicked up and he's got a foot injury and he's questionable for this game. James White is not a guy who's gonna run hard in between the tackles.
He's just not big enough.
So you know, you just start looking at the Patriots offense that Jets defense, and you're thinking, huh, are they going to be able to score enough to cover a double digit line? And I just don't see it. I mean, I could easily see this game being like a fourteen to ten final where the Patriots are just lucky to get the victory. Yeah.
Now, I'm with you, honestly on all accounts. I think it's not a great matchup for what the Pats are able to do on offense at this point. I think, you know, with the Jets you really need kind of an elite wide receiver because they don't really have that elite shutdown cornerback. And you know the Pats, you know Edelman's not that guy in that sense, So I agree with you. I'm with you on both that, and again I would bet the under on this one as well.
For my final pick, I am going to go with the Bills and the Dolphins under forty and a half points. And I used to avoid all Dolphins lines and that won me money last week when I actually took them, so now I love them. But realistically, I think the Bills need maybe two defensive scores here if they're going to hit the over. I've talked a few times this season about the Bills defense, and I talked about it earlier today. Depletely legitimate. They've allowed the fourth fewest points,
the third fewest yards, They're third against the pass. Tra Davious White and Levi Willas are playing really well at cornerback. Tremaine Edwins Matt Mlano have been great in coverage at a linebackers. I mean, Milana may not play, but it's not that huge a deal. Micha a Hide, Jordan Poyer. They can really they can rush the passer, they get pressure,
they're very difficult to throw on. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to start, and that doesn't make me feel that doesn't have any impact frankly on how I view the game, because I really don't know what to expect from either Fitzmagic or Josh Rosen at this point. But you know, the Dolphins allow four point six x per game. That's third worst than the NFL. He's going to be running for his life. They're set, you know, they they They're
terrible at running the ball. They never give Kenyan Drake the ball to the extent you know they do obviously, you know calln baladge gets the goal line, touches, you know, want whatever. But on the other side, the Dolphins defense is terrible. But the Bills know they're going to be able to win this game without needing to pile up a ton of points, right, I mean, they only put up eighteen points per game. Their run game is their strength.
Miami allows the second most rushing yards per game. They'll probably get Devin Singletary back here. Opposing offenses everage more than thirty one carries a game against the Dolphins, So I think this is just going to be a game where the Bills kind of take their time. They run the ball all the time, long drives, keep the clock moving. I don't think they're gonna give up much on defense.
So I think the Bills have hit their under if I'm not mistaken, on every single game that they've played so far this year, I think they do it again here. I'll take the under over here at forty one.
See, this is hard because I I'm petrified of what Miami. If Miami gets fourteen points, you might be in trouble.
So yeah, that's a bet, though I'm willing to risk. I mean at this, I mean maybe not but fourteen points. You know, that's the thing, Like they scored what they get sixteen. I guess when they went for two last week is that they lost seventeen to sixteen. Yeah, and that knows the kicks magic is kind of coming back all the way at the end. Man, this is the Bills defense. I don't really see them being able to
get two touchdowns. I understand you're absolutely right. I don't see them being able to get two touchdowns honestly.
Yeah, I mean they've scored so far this year in totality, they have scored thirty two points if my math is right. So yeah, the Dolphin Dolphins has not done very much. But I like Fitzpatrick. I thought he should have been the start of the whole time. He's not working with a whole heck of a lot. I just worry about garbage time. If the Bills are up thirty to nothing. You know, dude, do they care about stopping Miami if they put in a couple of ridiculous end of the game touchdowns.
I actually, I have to look at this.
I was trying to find it while you were talking, and I don't think it's out yet, but the team total prop for Buffalo, for for Buffalo, what it might be, and I think if it's somewhere in the neighborhood. If you think if the you know, just guessing what the what the books are gonna put it at with you know, you're talking about a total here of forty one. My guess is the Bills are going to have some team total somewhere around thirty one would be my guess, maybe
thirty four, somewhere in that range. And I might look at the implied team total for the Bills and play the under on what the what the implied team total of the Bills would be, because I just don't think Dolphin Dolphins can score. But if you set the line at forty one, you're gonna have to put the Bills number at pretty high.
So that's one win angle.
I might look to play and kind of eliminate the Dolphins altogether and not worry about what they're going to do to the total and just take the under on Buffalo. But it's going to be an ugly football game for sure. I mean it's it's an absolute no play for me on pretty much every on every aspect.
Yeah, I don't want the spread whatsoever, which is seventeen at this point. I don't want anywhere near there. I mean, the Dolphins, these Giants spreads just make me nervous. I did say forty one. I think actually the consensus is forty and a half now, but that does not change how I want it. Yeah, I honestly I think the game could easily go over if the Bills want it to.
And again, it's you know, you think about that Bengals game where they were ahead the entire game and then the Bengals just came storming back in the last quarter when the Bills. You know, they could have lost that game, of course, but they kind of, you know, took their foot off the gas a little bit, so that can certainly happen here. But I just, honestly, I don't see the Dolphins having enough to be able to do it. But you know, you make a fair point, and I
like that. You know, we can disagree because we've basically just been like, yes, everything right, right, of course I love it. Well, I'm fine, all right.
Just to back you up the five and oh with the unders of four in the.
Games, That's what I said, right, Yeah, they've hit on the under every single time. It just strikes me as as much as they could. I think they're more than happy to just run Frank or all day long. Get Singletary back sort of into the fold. Let's just control the clock. The clock will bleed and then before you know it, the game will be over and they'll be at you know, thirty three points or something like that.
But all right, let's recap here, Matt. You like the Eagles plus two and a half or three against the Cowboys, yep, the Colts laying one to the Texans, and the Jets getting ten or even nine and a half. You're willing to go, hopefully from the Patriots, which I like, of course as a Jets fan. I'm gonna take the Bears and Saints under thirty eight and a half, the forty nine Ers laying nine to the Redskins, and the Bills and Dolphins under forty and a half. So there you go.
There are the picks six. Now, before we move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. You know about bet mgm already, and in particular the bet mgm Sports App, because it's the easiest and best way to place a bet if you were in the state of New Jersey. Just search for and download the bet mgm Sports app on your phone or betmgm dot com, sign up for an account, and you
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And although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the state of New Jersey to place the sports bet. Visit betmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Matt, let's move on to it's a trap where we list the line that we are avoiding. Go ahead and start us off.
Well, the game I'm gonna avoid is the Arizona Cardinals on the road at the New York Giants. So there are two big questionable players in this game, and there may be the biggest named players in the game outside of Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones, the two rookie quarterbacks. You got David Johnson who is probable, Saquon Barkley who is probable, but both most likely will not be one
hundred percent going into this game. Arizona's coming off of a one point victory at home against the Falcons, and Kyler Murray was was named the NFC Player of the Offensive Player of the Week last week because of what he did. That offense is starting to come around. However, their defense is still absolutely horrendous. The Giants against bad defenses have been you know, okay, they put twenty four
points up against the Redskins this season. I'm not going anywhere near this game for the Giants and the Cardinals. It may be highly entertaining. I can make a case for either side to win this game, but Giants laying the three, I'm avoiding.
One hundred percent agree as usual. I'm sorry that I hate to do that, but I completely agree with the Cardinals. I don't know at all. I took the Falcons laying two and a half against the Cardinals last time, because I just I could not get out of my head that I Am not going to trust Cliff Kingsbury in a game with two offenses that are going to be able to move the ball and two defenses that can't stop anyone. I just sort of felt like the Falcons would come out, and here I just kind of feel
like the same. I don't know, I do not know what to do. I imagine, like you said, both Barkley and Johnson are going to play. Ingram sounds like he's going to play as well, which well the Giants Shepherd sounds a little bit less certain at this point. But either way, I don't know. I have no idea what to do with this line. And there are a bunch of teams that I feel that way about, including the team that I am picking right now in the line to avoid, and that is the Titans laying two to
the Chargers. I joke last week about putting the Titans here each and every week, and I pretty much meant, I mean, I'm not actually going to do it, but for this week, absolutely, these are two teams, the Titans and the Chargers, that I do not understand at all, And forget about putting in Ryan Tannel over Marcus Mariota. They're basically that's like an even swap. To me, it's much more about that I don't know which version of either of these teams is showing up on any given week.
The Titans defense is legitimate, but the offense is pretty abysmal, and the Chargers are an overwhelming disappointment. The offensive line is in total shambles, the defense has played poorly and been injured. Both teams are desperate for a win, and I have absolutely no idea how to view this game. There's no line that I would be able to look at and say, yeah, this feels about right to me, because I feel confident in picking one or the other
at this point. If I had to gun to my head, if I had to, probably the Titans, just because it seems difficult to see how the Charters are going to protect Philip Rivers. But it's much more about the psyche of both of these teams, and I have no idea what to do. So for me, I'm avoiding the Titans laying two to the Charters.
I'm hating on the Titans for the rest of the year because I bet them the last two weeks and I thought I had it right on both occasions. I thought I was going to see the tickets cash and unfortunately, even last week when it was three nothing on the road at Denver, I'm just watching Marcus Mariota miss so many open receivers.
I don't blame them benching him.
I think that was the right call with how well their defense plays, they get after the quarterback. But I don't know what to make of the Chargers to save my life either, I've lost money betting on the Chargers this year. I bet them against the Denver Broncos and that that didn't work out well. And I had them against the I had them against the Steelers last weekend that didn't work out well. I mean again, the narrative last week for me was teams that had to had
to win who are at home. I thought, okay, with under a touchdown line that they were going to be able to do it, and almost across the board, it was an outright loss for those teams last week. So when you paint a picture and the picture goes against you in every single way, that's how you wind up with the week that.
I had last week, which was just kind of.
Duck and cover but I can't trust the Chargers either. I can't trust the Titans either. I think they made the right decision here. I don't like Ryan Tannehill. I couldn't stand him at the Dolphins with the Dolphins, but I think it's the right move because he looked at least competent throwing the football and comfortable throwing the ball down the field.
Yeah. I mean I hated the Titans in the preseason. It was because I just I could never back Marcus Mariotta at all. So I'm fine to make that switch at this point. There are a bunch of teams, by the way, that I will put in this bucket of no because I every time I bet them, I bet wrong. The Bucks are another team. I have no sense of what the Bucks are gonna do on any given week.
I've been wrong in them like four straight weeks, just sort of being like, yeah, there's a game here, they come, they gonna bounce back, and then nothing, and then they go crazy against the Rams. So Titans are definitely in that. So I'm avoiding the Titans link two to the Chargers. You are avoiding the Cardinals getting three from the Giants. All right, let us move on to our final segment, Top Prop, where we list our top player prop of the week. Matt go ahead and started off.
Sure, I'm gonna go back to the Monday nighter here and kind of stay with the narrative for that Jets d being able to control the Patriots and the Patriots coming into the game just wanting to run the football. I'm gonna go under Tom Brady completions of twenty four and a half. Now it's minus one ten, so it's
not really heavily juiced up. But I just think that Jets defense is going to be able to slow that Patriots offense down, and I think the Patriots want to run the football and basically get the heck out of there. Against the Buffalo Bills, Brady only had eighteen completions. I think we could see a very similar number here. I'll be surprised if Brady gets into the twenties, just because of this desire to not have Brady sitting back there like a duck, allowing this defensive line in linebackers to
blitz Brady and get after the quarterback. So I think the Patriots are going to really try to run the ball, limit Brady and not throw the football a lot, So I like Brady under twenty four and a half completions on Monday Night, So.
I don't hate that. My only thing is that my guess is when they do pass, it's gonna be a lot of short passes, like it's gonna be a lot of things to James White and stuff like that, because they're not going to want to let Brady gets it there. And I don't know whether or not they're going to be able to run the ball all that. Well. I think they're gonna play conservative game, they'll be able to
win and stuff like that. My only concern with that, like whatever the yardage prop is, I would probably go under that because I don't see a big throwing game or anything like that. But my worry with that one would be that I could see a lot of just kind of dump offs, quick passes, quick you know, things like that, where the completion number sort of piles up without the yards. You know what I'm saying.
Yeah, they didn't put a yards number up. I think for that very reason.
I think that as of right now, I'm looking at the West Gate here in Las Vegas for player props, and they don't have a Brady prop they've got a Brady touchdowns for one and a half, and they've got in Brady completions.
I just I get your point.
About the dink and dunk, and it starts to add up for the Patriots, But I don't think they want to put Brady into the position where all of a sudden, you know, if Edelman's not one hundred percent and we know he's a little bit nicked up, they double team the slot take away that guy. I mean, it's door set, it's Jacobe Myers, it's you know, if there's no Josh Gordon. I just don't know who Brady throws to. I just
don't think they have a receiving corps. And maybe it's James White coming out of the backfield and they run a bunch of a bunch of screen passes to the running backs. But I don't I'm concerned about the Patriot offense on Monday Night.
I think all of that is fair. I am going to take Leonard Fournette over one hundred and twenty five yards rushing and it's plus two fifty, so that's obviously where we're going here. I don't necessarily think that the odds are going for him to go over there. But this perfect situation, right, it's a game in which the Jaguars are favored. Burnette gets all of the carries. You know, he's giving a couple now to Rock Armstead, but barely any. The Bengals allow one hundred and eighty four and a
half yards per game on the ground. Fournette has averaged twenty four carries over his last three games. He's averaging five point one yards per carry on the season, including games against the Saints and the Titans, two teams that are good against the run. He is just going to get fed a whole lot here, and if he sees his normal volume of carries, he has a good shot to go over this mark. So given the fact that it's plus two fifty, I'm gonna take that all that long.
Yeah, I don't hate that at all.
I mean, I think also the narrative that we're talking about is is on point because of you know, Gardner meanshew, and let's to see what this offense the hype is. I don't want to say Warren off a little bit, but I think people are starting to figure out what he is and what he can and cannot do. And I mean that offensive line is good enough. I think the Jaguars just based off the Jalen Ramsey trade, and I think they're gonna want to come out and prove a point. And I think you're gonna get the good
version of the Jaguars. There's kind of two different versions of that team right now. I think you'll get the good version of the Jaguars, and a lot of times that means slamming the ball down the opposing team's throat.
Yeah, I don't actually love them laying three and a half. I'm a little sort of you know, I'm a little torn on it with what it's going to be because I just have the weird feeling that the Bengals are going to come out and keep this game competitive. But I do think that regardless they're going to run the ball, the Jaguars are gonna run.
I hate the Bengals.
I hate the Bengals, And maybe this is going back to the Bill Callahan hate. But I was covering Nebraska when Zach Taylor was the quarterback for the Huskers and the fact that that dude is is a head coach and the average age of his coaching staff is thirty seven. You know, as I mentioned in the preseason, I was telling you ten losses or ten wins for for the
forty nine ers. In July, I was standing on tables telling everybody that the Bengals were going to be competing for the first pick in the draft, that they were going to be absolutely awful, and the number was six, and I was saying, just hammer the under on the Bengals team total, because they're not a good football team. And if they get off to a rough start, which they did because their schedule was relatively tough, there's no coach on that staff that has any experience pulling teams
out of tailspins. And aj Green should never play another down for the Bengals for the rest of his career. He should pull a Jalen Ramsey just say I'm not playing guys. Get me the hell out of here. Sorry, Andy Dalton. I know you need me, but I want no part of being around this dumpster fire. Why they decided to hire a thirty six year old head coach just because he had been close to Sean McVay made
absolutely no sense. After Marvin Lewis was there for so long and he had so much stability in that head coaching position, it was the worst hire of the year to go get Zach Taylor, and it was the latest. You remember, it was the last of all the vague guys they went and got, and they gave the head coaching job to somebody who had never been a head coach anywhere.
Ever.
It's just such a stupid, typical Bengals move to hire a guy like that, and I fade them. I have no problem betting against them every single week because I just I don't think they're any.
Good man, Matt, you are bringing the fire, and I love it. I've gone with the Bengals a couple of times because on the road. You know, over the last few seasons, they've actually been great covering. And you know this year, you know, the only time, I guess I thought one at a time, but I remember taking them in Buffalo against the Bills where they did manage to cover the six point spread. But yeah, you know, you
make you make a lot of good points. And my guess is that Aj Green will not play another game for the Bengals. It is my guess. But those are really good points. And I'm glad I didn't pick that game for one of my picks, because we would have gotten off to a crazy start. But anyway, that is it for today's show. Thanks again for joining me, Matt. Remind everyone where they can find more of you and your.
Work sure at sports Talk Matt is the Twitter account, the Better Network and eSPI Nation Radio. If you use tune in you can get the show. We're on from one to four Eastern part of the Better Network on tune in or eSPI Nation Live dot com is a direct stream for Espidation Radio from ten to one Pacific one to four. We come out of the Palms Casino and CG Sportsbooks and we have a lot of fun breaking down games. A lot of insiders, a lot of Las Vegas bookmakers join us on the program and talk
a lot about what's happening behind the counter. So we try to take you into the wriskroom, if you will, to find out what the books need every week.
All right, well, thanks again for coming on the show, Matt. I hope we can do it again before the season ends.
Would love to. Thanks for the invite, really appreciate it. All right.
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my friends. We'll be back breaking down the early lines next week.