Best NFL Week 6 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 17)

ds now. Jared is the nineteenth most accurate sports better over at Bettingpros dot com, and that is out of one hundred and fifty eight experts. Guys, he is no joke now. Full disclosure, I'm thirty first, So if you sense a little bad blood on the show, it's because I don't particularly like people who are purportedly better at things than I am. Nevertheless, Jared and I have agreed to bury the hatchet for the next forty or forty five minutes or so and to try to offer some

solid betting advice for Week six. Jared, thanks a lot for coming on the show. How's it going?

And I'm just gonna lay this out there. I believe I went over on every single over under that I picked last week and on bettingbros dot Com. And that's funny because I actually had rarely missed them at any

point before last week. I just did not have a good sense for the amount of points that We're going to be scored in Week five, Jared, But thankfully I told everyone to bet their mortgage on Minnesota Lane five to the Giants, and a late garbage time DeAndre Hopkins catch won me the over under eighty six and a half yard prop bet, which means I do not have to do this entire show with a British accent like I had agreed to do had I lost our guest Greg Smith had a rougher week, so Jared, you've got

to get us back on track. It is a big task. Are you ready.

those gut feelings I've got tonight. So Let's hope that that's right, and if not, you'll know that I was wrong on that one. Anyway, if you want to see how I or Jared pick that game, you can go to betting pros dot com. That's gonna show you how basically every betting expert who makes picks on the site made their picks for that and every other game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros dot com consensus odds in making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds

that you're gonna find available in the market. All right, Jared, start us off. What's your first pick here?

ball a lot. And that describes the Falcons and Cardinals perfectly. These teams both rate rank top six in seconds per snap. They're both top five Football Outsider situation neutral pass rate. Sorry, they're both top five in situation neutral pace, and they're both top ten in situation neutral pass rate. So I think you're gonna get a lot of snaps, a lot of passing, and a lot of points in this game.

pretty much is on board. When you look at the betting pros dot com break down, sixty six percent are on the over. But I believe I can't be sure. I look the lines when they first open. I mean, I think this opened at like forty seven or forty eight or something there, so it has moved dramatically up. So you would have loved it. I'm sure if you could have gotten in there. From everyone I've talked to, all the money is coming in here on the over, so I agree. I think I think it's a great bet.

I think, you know, the Falcons are also desperate for a win. I think they're gonna pull out all the stops. They just don't have the talent on defense right now once Can O'Neil went out. They always have the injuries, and of course we know especially I think this is the last game without Patrick Peterson for the Cardinals. I think he had a six game suspension. So I agree. I think it's gonna be a shoot out, and I

love the bet. I'm a little annoyed that you stole it, but I'm gonna come up with something that's equally as compelling, and that is the Jaguars and the Saints under forty three and a half. I'm kidding, that's not in any way compelling full disclosure. I obviously made my picks a bit earlier in the day, and when I made this pick, the line was actually at forty four and a half, not forty three and a half. So I'm a little less bullish on this now that it's under forty three

and a half. But shop around there are still some forty four's on it, and I locked in my pick on bettingpros dot Com at forty four. Now, first of all, for now I'm banking on Jalen Ramsey playing here. It's a bit up in the air, but it kind of looks like things are trending in that direction. And it's not as if I think he's just gonna be able to completely shut down Michael Thomas single handedly or anything, but I think that his presence drastically improves that defense.

And even if he doesn't, I would still take the forty three under forty three and a half because in the end, I think this comes down to two relatively strong defenses against two relatively mediocre offenses. I mean, you look at the Saints last week Bridgewater edited that aired it out completely, but that was basically just Sean Payton attacking a glaring weakness in his opponent. The Bucks are strong against the run, they cannot in any way stop the pass. That is not the case with the Jaguars.

I'm sure Bridgewater is gonna go back to what he usually does here with an extraordinarily low average depth of target, and the Jaguars are particularly good at defending receivers after the catch on the ground. I know Christian McCaffrey tore up the Jaguars last weekend, but overall they've generally been

solid against the run. And I watched that game closely because I had a lot of action on the Panthers laying three and a half, but it looked more to me like breakdowns in communication, poor gaptis by the linebackers and the safeties. I didn't really see, all of a sudden, some glaring weaknesses in their run defense, so I expect that to kind of be cleaned up. And of course news broke shortly before we were coming on that. Alvin Kamara popped up on the injury report today with an

ankle injury. So that's never good when you see somebody come up. He's purportedly going to be fine, but either way, he's going to be a little limited. Now the Jaguars are coming back home here after a few road games. They're still an exciting team with Garterer Minshew leading the way, and the crowd's going to be into it, and I

expect them to put up a solid defensive performance. And they're also getting a lot of money by being a small underdog here with the spread, so I think that sharpbetters probably expect them to come ahead, and I think that probably means that they expect a low scoring game. Now on the other side, we know the Saints defense. They're excellent against the run. Marshaun Lantimore basically takes out

your number one wide receiver. James O'Shaughnessy is out for the year with his ACL tear, and he had become kind of a reliable option for Minshew. So that's one peg down on the offensive side. This just strikes me as a hard hitting, close game that's going to be relatively low scoring, kind of closer to what the Saints and the Cowboys put on. So I'm going to roll here with the under forty three and a half.

the Chiefs bouncing back at home. I don't think they're going to lose two games in a row, especially at home. So I think, you know, minus four, with that offense, I think they can cover that four points.

like something that's generally going to be thought of. I agree. My one concern, honestly, above the wide receivers is whether Mahomes is fully healthy. I know he hanged up his ankle a little bit again in the last game. But I completely agree with you, man. This is something where you know, before last week, nobody was that excited about the Texans, right, and they come out and they destroy

a team that has no defense whatsoever. I mean, the Falcons are laughable at this point given all their injuries. So I think people got a little too excited about it. Arrowhead, despite the Sunday night dud is still one of the toughest places to play. So I'm with you as it's four. I was a little concerned at five and a half when it was there. Certainly eight I was. I was

with the Texans. But once it's down to four now, which actually I didn't even see until shortly before because when I checked before it was five, that's a good bet. So I'm back in you there. I'm gonna stick with the over unders, considering I need to get back on the train after last week, and I'm going to go with the Cowboys and my Jets over forty four. And again this is one where earlier in the day when I took the bet, it was at forty three. Now

it's at forty four. I'm again not quite as bullish as I was, but I'm still going to take the over here now. As I said, I'm a jetsman by nature, I am pessimistic. I am more than willing to kill this team as I do with my cousins on an ongoing four year tech string. But I mean, you throw out every single thing that you have seen from the Jets offense right now, throw it all out. Luke Falk is not an NFL quarterback. I am a full believer in Sam Darnold, and although I don't think he's going

to be at full strength here. It takes a while to be clear from Mono. Even after your quote unquote cleared, it takes a while to be recovered. And Chris Herndon is down. But I think Darnold has shown chemistry with both Jameson Crowder and Robbie Anderson in the past, and the Cowboys in particular. They let up a lot of

completions and a lot of yards after the catch. They're not a team that you can usually throw deep on but they do allow a ton of underneath stuff, and I think that works well for the offense that m. Gase wants to run, and particularly with the presence of Crowder. As a general matter, the Cowboys achilles heel in general is pass catching running backs. That's basically what we're looking

at here with Le'Veon Bell. The Cowboys just struggled as a tackling team as a general matter, like Bell is going to continue to get fed and he's probably going to do some damage. And look, the Jets have an abysmal offensive line, like one of the worst in the NFL, but the Cowboys rarely blitz just seventeen point six percent of the time, and even when they do break through, which they will, of course, Darnold has some elusiveness so

he can extend plays even when the line breaks down. Plus, Dallas plays the Eagles next week, and I think they could potentially be looking past this game now. On the flip side, the Jets defense is getting a little healthier. They're still down CJ. Moseley, and it sounds like Tyron Smith is probably going to be back here, which really is a huge difference maker on the Dallas offensive line.

Now Collins may miss another game, so the offensive line isn't at full strength, but the Jets have six sacks all season. They're not exactly going to be pressuring Dak no matter who is up there. They're actually pretty stout against the run, but when you look at their secondary with Tremaine Johnson and Daryl Roberts, they're really soft in coverage. And I'm a believer in this Kellen More led offense. I think that last weekend they just kind of outsmarted themselves.

They going way more pass heavy than they needed to. They should have just pounded the ball on the ground against the weak Green Bay run defense. I expect a more balanced attack here and for them to be able to score in the end. This overbet is really comes down to that. I expect the Jets to be able to put up points here. I think Dallas is likely going to match them. I expect them to win the game. So I will take the over at forty four, and I'm not taking it, but I kind of would lean

the Jets plus seven. I'm not making that one of my picks, but for me, I do expect the Jets to put up points here and I Expectdoas to win and put up points right with them. So I'll take the over on the forty four.

bad losses. Those are two good teams. But I think we need to dock them a bit for just you know, the team, say, beat those first three weeks. So I think these teams are closer than that spread would indicate, especially with Sam Donald back as you mentioned. I mean, I'm a Sam Donald advocate too, even if you're not, though you have to admit he's a massive, massive upgrade over Luke Falalks. I think, you know, seven points at home for the Jets is too much for them to be getting.

actually mest that in your email. Yeah, I just think you know, this was eight and a half when it first opened, and I feel like I should have jumped on it because you know, I'm not that I'm all that plugged in, but as a Jets fan, I'm following the situation pretty closely, and it certainly looked like Darnald was on track here to play. I mean, he was almost cleared last week, and I'm really bullish on the kid,

you know, And I like the offense. I know that they didn't put up a ton of points against Buffalo in Week one, but you're seeing that Buffalo offense defense right now, right they're legit. So the fact that they were pretty much in control, I really think this is gonna be a good game. So I would have felt better about it had the Cowboys won last weekend. You know, I could see them being a little bit salty here as they're coming off back to back losses. But again,

they've got Philly next week. That's gonna be kind of the game. I could then a bye after that, so I could see them kind of looking past us a little bit. So I like it. Jets minus seven one hundred percent agree. I'd be all over that as well. I'm glad I didn't accidentally pick that one, though, but we both like I guess I like a high scoring game. You like the Jets getting seven. Here. Now, my last pick is something that I I don't even want to say, but I'm gonna say it because I have to, because

that's the whole point of the show. I'm taking the Dolphins getting three and a half from the Redskins. And yes, I feel gross about it, but I also feel gross after I order steak with a side of steak, and I'm still doing that this weekend at Peter Luger's. So you know what this line is. This line is bookmakers saying we want people to bet on this game, because nobody is betting on this game if it's at three or two and a half or anything like that. They just want to make this line that you look at

and you go, wow, hmm, that's kind of interesting. And the betting breakdown when you look is pretty even overall, and both Jason Logan who's on the Monday Show, and I had the same exact reaction, and that is that I am not positive that the right team is favored here. I mean, I get it, the Dolphins have a negative one hundred and thirty seven point differential, so that's not great. But the Redskins are a disaster. I mean, they just fire their head coach, and the Dolphins are an equal disaster.

But Josh Rozen actually hasn't been all of that terrible, and they've played some games pretty close, particularly in the first half, like they did against Dallas. Now, there are a couple of warning signs here. First, the Redskins defensive front is not terrible. Deron Paine, John Allen, Ryan Kerrigan. They can all get to the quarterback, and that's especially true when you have a line like the Dolphins that make the Jets look like the best offensive line in

the world. Second, the Redskins are starting case Keenum this week, which in my opinion, gives them the best chance to win. And if that doesn't tell you all you need to know about why I like the Dolphins here, then I don't know what. Well, now, there's these reports that have come out today about how Adrian Peterson is saying, how wow, they remind me of the Saints, and our practice is

so good. You hear stuff like that all the time. Overall, I just think the Dolphins either pull this one out or they at least keep this close in a home game. Like I said, Rosen has not been terrible. Preston Williams has been a nice surprise. Devonte Parker, as always, has shown the occasional flash. I think Albert Wilson is on track to return here. And the Redskins just don't stop quarterbacks. They're worse than the league in third down QB completion

percentage and passing yards allowed on third down. The Dolphins have had to buy the game plan around the defense here, and yes they are tanking, but Brian Flores can't really be okay, which is going over sixteen right? I mean? The variable? Really, the only thing that makes me even a little sort of hesitant about this one is the fact that there is the coaching change that is just a variable that you can never know how a team's

gonna respond. Now, he loves to run the ball. He's been in charge of the run game all year, and the Dolphins allow four point seventy five yards per carry. So it's possible that this coach change energizes the team and they just run Adrian Peterson into the ground. But the fact that you're past that key number of three is really what does it for me? And Jason brought this out on Monday, by the way, but I do want to reiterate this in case you missed the show.

If you don't want to take the Dolphins here because they're the Dolphins, I understand consider at least taking them in the first half because they do absolutely nothing in the second half, but they keep games really really close in the first half, So at least for me, I would go for it on the first half. But I am going to throw up in my mouth a little bit and take the Dolphins getting three and a half.

Miami after what I've seen the first four weeks. So for me, that game and avoid.

what it is. This is why I think, like, honestly, this was just the bookmaker saying, can we just get some action on this game somehow, whatever we need to do, throw it out there and see what happens. Because if it's two and a half, you're just like, eh, I don't want any of this at all. But right now with this, it's getting a fair amount of action. From what I can see, it's roughly split down the middle,

exactly what they want. So I am going to really just feel grotesque all week and long, but I am going to hear take the Dolphins getting three and a half. So let's recap here before we move on. You've got the Falcons and Cardinals. I believe it was at fifty one. Is that writers fifty one and a half?

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You must be twenty one years or older. And although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the state of New Jersey to place a sports bet. Visit betmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you got a gambling problem, gambler, All right, Jared, let's move on here too. It's a trap where we list the line we are avoiding this weekend. Now you already mentioned the Dolphins, but you can't choose that one, obviously, go ahead, what else you got.

We saw last week the Raiders beating the Bears. I think if that if that game is anywhere in the in the US, the Bears win that game. But you know something about London, I think add some volatility to these games. I'm just gonna avoid Panthers Box, even though I do think the Panthers come out with a win there.

You're You're great. It's fifty one percent Tampa Bay forty nine percent. Carolina. So the betting experts are basically split right down the middle, which I always think is perfect when you're talking about a game to avoid, because nobody really knows what's going on. So I'm fine with that. I agree with that. By the way, London certainly adds a variable to it, and you never really know what

to expect. London's oddly, you know interesting. I've been over there when the Jets played the Dolphins, and whoever is the home team, they really do come out to support, so it's almost quasi like a home game for the Bucks over there, and as you said, their regular home field advantage hasn't been all that great, Lily. But I

think that's a really good pick for me. I'm gonna avoid the Broncos laying two to the Titans now, I think probably I can skip this segment altogether at this point in any future episode and say that I am always avoiding the Titans no matter what, because I don't know what I am going to see from the Titans. Ever. They have a really strong defense, but they are the most frustrating team I've had to watch in a while. Meanwhile, the Broncos are much better than their record and they've

lost several close games. I think Tennessee is probably the slightly better team here overall, but I have absolutely no confidence and who is going to win this game in Denver. I'm totally out on it, and I'm sorry sportsbooks, if you're listening. I'm advising people probably never to bet on a Titans game either way, because I feel like you just don't know what you're gonna get.

and you're like, wow, look at this. This is a you know, this offense looks fantastic. But at this point I just feel like it's a complete shot in the dark. So I'm avoiding them. So I am avoiding the Titans getting to from the Broncos, and you are avoiding the Panthers who are actually laying two and a half to

the Bucks in London. Now, real quick, before we get to our final segment, I do want to remind everyone about our contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara Helme and courtesy of our good friends over at Pristine Auction. You got a couple more weeks to enter. Actually, at this point that's not true. You have a few more days to enter, so go ahead and do so. Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest

at betting pros dot com. If you entered last month's contest, you're already in, so no worries there, all right, Jared, it is time for Top prop where we list our top player prop of the week. As I said, I won the DeAndre Hopkins bet last week on a garbage time toss, so I am feeling very confident in mine. You can go first, though.

is a pass heavy offense. They're fifth in situation neutral pass right, So that that's you know, when when the game is within one score, when the game flow is in dictating play calling, that the Falcons are throwing it at the fifth fifth highest rate. I think there should be another pass heavy game against the Cardinals, who, like we've said, are still missing Patrick Peterson. They're still missing Robert all for two, their number two cornerback who's on

IR right now. So lots of plays, lots of passing. Good matchup for Matt Ryan. I think he goes over three fifty.

the Eagle strength is really their run defense. So I expect the Vikings to need to go to the air a little bit more on Sunday. So why Digs over Thilan? Well, first, Thelan's number is higher, It's somewhere in the seventies. But basically, Diggs has seen seven targets in two games this year. Every other game he's maxed out at four. He's seen the seven targets in games against the Packers and against the Bears, and in both games, Cousins was pressured and

needed to get rid of the ball really quickly. And that is what I see happening here. I see Diggs getting a lot of targets, most of them quick as the Eagles pass, russ is going to be able to get to Cousins. With Minnesota's weak offensive line, neither Russell Douglas nor Craig James can really hang with Diggs at this point. I don't think we're gonna see one hundred yard game necessarily or anything like that, but something in the seventy to eighty range, especially given that Feelan got

the squeaky wheel treatment last week. I think the squeaky wheel treatment is probably coming digs way anyway this week, but especially I think this game, in particular because of the pass rush, sets up well for him, because I think he excels when Cousins needs to get the ball out quick. So I will buy something in the seventy to eighty range, which means I'm taking Stefan Diggs over fifty nine and a half yards M minus one fourteen.

and beat the Jets with Luke Falk starting. I think a lot of it was on their defense. I don't really love their you know, offense really at all, especially against a tough defense like the Vikings. So I'm a little worried about the game flow in this game being something where well, it could just be sort of a close, low scoring game and they still will rely on the run the Vikings because that's kind of what they like

to do. But in the end, I think last week what we saw and look, I get that it was a super soft matchup against the Giants, But I think they look better when they're a little more balanced and they throw a little bit more. And I think they know that. And I think Diggs is not getting traded this year. He's just not not with that contract. They

need him. He's a great player, as you said, and I think in the end, not only are they going to make a little bit more of an effort to get him the ball, but I think in particular this game sets up really well for him, so hopefully the fact I agree the number is preposterously low, but again, he's topped it once once this entire season, so it isn't something that's a short thing by any means. But I definitely feel that given the game flow, it's going

to be a winner. So you are taking Matt Ryan over three hundred and fifty passing yards at plus one forty six, which I also really like, and I'll take Stefon Diggs over fifty nine and a half yards at minus one fourteen. Well, that is going to do it for today's show. Thanks for joining me, Jared. Can you remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.