Best NFL Week 5 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 15)

Harris Adi. It's time to break down some of our favorite and our least favorite bets for the Week five NFL Slate, and with me to talk about it all is Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs dot com, writer and podcaster for four for four dot com, one of the most accurate sports betters in the Bettingpros dot Com Accuracy Challenge, and most notably the man who narrowly lost to me in the semi finals of the Scott Fishbowl last season. You can find him on Twitter at

Greg Sauce. It is about time we got to talk, Greg. How the heck are YEA?

while there, I checked it out. You were, I believe, leading the accuracy competition in our Betting pros dot com chowns. Was that right or you were one or two right before?

great equalizer came crashing back down to earth. That's just kind of how it goes sometimes.

two points. I was also wrong in the Cardinals getting six from the Seahawks, as well as my Marlon Mack prop bet. Now I did hit on the Panthers Texans coming in under forty seven and a half, so not a complete wipeout, and our guest jj Epersina had a pretty nice weekend, actually nailing three of his four bets. So let's both go for the clean sweeper. Are you good with that? Greg?

That's gonna show you how I and every betting expert who makes picks on the site made their picks for every game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are the aggrig at odds that you'll find available in the market. All right, Greg, start us off. What's your first pick here?

three point five. It's been bet down to three. I liked it at three and a half. I like it even more at three. So I'm really into this line, this pick. If you want to go deeper on kind of the efficiency metrics for these two teams. I like to use DVA from football outsiders, and it's all more good news for Baltimore. The Ravens ranked fifth in total DVA, the Steelers ranked twenty fourth. The Ravens have the third best offense, sixth in passing efficiency, and first in rushing efficiency.

The Steelers ranked nineteenth in defense, nineteenth against the past, twentieth against the run, and in the running game, there is a huge mismatch in the trenches. Pittsburgh D line ranks twenty eighth in adjusted line yards. Baltimore's O line

ranks second. So either the Steelers are going to get run over by mark Ingram and Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson, or the Steelers are going to have to sell out against the run and risk getting burned by Marcus Brown and the rest of the receivers in that receiving core for Baltimore. And on that note, I know we're going to get to player props later, but I like taking Marquise Brown to top one hundred receiving yards at plus two thirty five on points bet. I'm not going to

make that my official player prop for this podcast. I'll save that one for later, because I do think there is some risk that the running game goes hand for Baltimore and they just might not need to pass that much either way, I just don't trust Mason Rudolph to keep up on the other side of the ball. So I love the Ravens minus three.

to four, because the consensus has moved a bit. But I'm a little bit surprised by that. The one thing that makes me a little hesitant about this, and I'm wondering whether or not this factor's into at all. Team. I know they have, you know, new offenses. I know Roethlisberger's not there, and Lamar Jackson's obviously new, and so everything's a little different. Every time these teams play, it's

basically a close game. Half their games, you know, over the last several seasons, basically are decided by three points exactly. So does that type of history factor in it all or do you just throw it out because it's an entirely new sort of set of circumstances here.

I don't trust him in this matchup whatsoever against a good coach, a good team in Baltimore, and I just think they're gonna get run off the fie. Now, if the line was four or five points, I'd be a little bit more hesitant. But if all Baltimore has to do is win, by field goal. I think that's very easily doable.

over since Cincinnati. I mean, first of all, any Andy Dalton led team in primetime is basically a guarantee to collapse. But you know, the Bengals really aren't good, and it was very gimmicky to me, right, I mean, it was a lot of wildcat a lot of short passes. I just do not see them being able to replicate that again against Baltimore. So I don't think I've made my official pick on the site yet. I certainly lean that way.

It gave me a little bit of pause because of the fact that the teams know each other so well. They're almost always within three points. They're certainly almost legitimately every time basically within one score. But certainly, if I lean one way, I'm inclined to agree with you there. I agree on Baltimore laying three my first bet. Now, if you listen to the Monday show where we give our initial reactions to the lines, then you'll probably know that I'm going to be taking the Vikings laying five

to the Giants. Now, there are a couple of things here. The bettingpros dot Com expert consensus rankers are pretty much split down the middle of this game. They slightly lean towards Minnesota. It's fifty four percent to fifty six percent.

both the Bears and the Packers. They certainly cannot afford to lose a game like this. They've obviously struggled with their passing game. You've got Adam Theln calling out the entire game plan. By the way, you should play Adam Feelin and all your dear lineups this week, to be clear. But you've got Stefan Diggs basically begging the team to trade him. You've got Kirk Cousins apologizing for his terrible play, but putting that aside, Cousins is not a terrible quarterback.

I mean, he's had several terrible matchups, but we know that he's competent. And although the Vikings offensive line is not great, the Giants have absolutely no pass rush. They're twenty fifth in the league against the pass, and they really struggle against play action. Genorrah Jenkins is fine, but you can't draw conclusions from the way they played against

the Redskins. Now the Vikings, in addition to I think finally here opening up the passing game, they of course still have the dominant running game with Dalvin Cook and the Giants, who don't have a great run defense anyway, just lost Ryan Connelly, one of their linebackers, to a torn acl baby Alec Oltletree comes back, but I don't

think he'd play a full complement of stats anyway. So this strikes me as a game in which the Vikings offense is gonna look really strong and basically establish themselves. And on the other side, I think Daniel Jones probably looked better than his end line against the Redskins, but he obviously came back to Earth. There's still know Saquon Barkley. I don't care about all this nonsense about how they're not ruling him out yet if they play him there insane.

Wayne Goalman is serviceable, but he's not gonna win the game for them. I get Golden Tate is coming back and that helps, but he's been away from the team for about a month, and the Vikings defense is excellent. They're seventh in the league in points in yordage allowed ever since. Griffin is playing great, Hunter is playing great, and Mike Zimmer knows Pat Shermer from his time with

the Vikings. So I have this awful feeling as I look and I see how the most accurate experts are going on, and because I love this bet so much, I have this awful feeling that there's gonna be a ton of like sharp action that comes in late on Sunday or something like that, because the bets overall here, the money and the number of bets generally are favoring the Vikings. But I really don't care. To me, I'm taking the Vikings laying five, and I feel pretty good about it. I don't know how you feel.

going to have to pass a little bit more. They're not just going to be able to lean on that running game like they normally would. And along those lines, I think this is one of those squeaky wheel gets the grease sorts of scenarios with Adam Deelan and Stefan Diggs. Like I do think they are going to make an effort to pass a little bit more and this is the perfect match to do it. Like you said, the Giants have been pretty bad against the pass, and I think this is a get right game for the Vikings.

I really like this call.

I just think this is I mean, as much as they seem like they might be in disarray, they just strike me as a much much better team. And as much as I like Daniel Jones and like what I've seen from him, I'm not really buying that he's sort of going to be this guy who's going to transform this team. I think the Vikings win here, and I think they win big, So I'll take that. Who's your second pick?

But even if all and play still have a tough time against Santassee's defense, they're super balanced against the run. They rank thirteenth in DVA and fifth in adjusted lineyards against the pass. The Titans ranked twelfth and DVA and eighth then adjusted sack rate. Buffalo's defense ranks better in overall DVOA, ranking fourth in the NFL, but that's mostly due to how excellent their pass defense has been. Their rank third, and pass defense dv away the Bills do.

But the Bills have been much worse against the run, where they're ranked twenty fifth in the DVA. So I think you got to look for Derek Henry and Dean Lewis to do some damage in this contest. All in all, I just think these two teams are really close, but the Titans are slightly better, and they're playing at home, and Buffalo's quarterback is questionable. So give me Tennessee at minus two and a half or minus three.

Tennessee here laying three points. It doesn't really matter to me. But I don't feel like it would make a huge difference to me necessarily if it were Matt Barkley versus Josh Allen. I don't know if you agree with that.

games I got right in Week four. So maybe I'm, you know, chasing the points here a little bit with the Titans because Buffalo's defense is good. Like That's what gives me some pause here, is that maybe they just keep it close through their defense. It doesn't matter how bad their quarterback play is, because it's not like, you know,

Marcus Mariota is a world beater either. My main concern here is whether or not the Mariota will kind of shoot himself in the foot in this game against a real defense, because last week he wasn't playing that in the Falcons. But I like the Titans defense, I like their running game, and I think that those two aspects of their team line up really well against Buffalo this week.

And again, just to make it clear, the betters, at least on bettingpros dot com, the consensus are with you fifty eight percent taking Tennessee here, and of the most accurate the top twenty percent, eighty three percent are taking the Titans. So that is the way that I am leaning as well. So I like that pick. I think it's good. I don't have any concerns even if Josh Allen plays. So my next pick is that I'm gonna go a little over under here, and I'm going to

go the Broncos and Chargers over forty four and a half. Now, I think this might be the first over that I've picked on this show. Greg, So you are basically here for history. Well, all right, let's do it every time. Every time you come in the show, I will pick an over. That's my promise to you if you come back. Both offenses here have been surprisingly competent, and surprisingly that's

really for the Broncos. Okay, the Chargers, they sort of are what they are, other than on the road against the Lions, have been better defensively, frankly than I think people myself included expected. They've been able to put up points. They're third in the league in passing yards per game, fifth and totally yards per game. They'll get Melvin Gordon back here. Mike Williams looks like he'll be good to go.

I know it was limited and pres this today, but he does look like he's trending in the right direction. There's little reason to think that they'll struggle to move the ball against Denver. Everyone knows that the Broncos didn't have a sack until last week against the Jaguars. Now Bradley Chubb is out for the season. It's skewed a bit by the fact that Fournette, you know, had that huge game last week. But Denver is thirtieth against the

run and Chris Harris, Mayshadow, Keenan Allen. That's certainly something to consider, But I just don't see anything from the Broncos to suggest that their defense is going to be able to hold the Chargers in check here. Now, the Broncos on the other side of the ball have a kind of surprisingly competent offense. I mean, Joe Flacco has actually fitting kind of well with the system. He's on pace for forty three hundred and four passing yards, just

a shy off his career best. And remember they've played the Bears and the Packers, two very strong defenses. Again, as I said earlier, the Packers, particularly against the pass. Emmanuel Sanders has made a miraculous recovery from last year's injury. Courtland Sutton is very underrated. They have two solid running backs in Lindsay and Freeman, and the Chargers, as usual, are dealing with a ton of injuries on both sides

of the ball, especially on defense. They're about middle of the road in defense despite playing a lot of struggling offenses. It looks like Melvin Ingram might miss this game, further weakening that defense. So I expect both teams here to

be able to top twenty points. So I admit I'm slightly nervous at taking an over when it involves the Broncos, But here I think that both teams are going to be able to move the ball on the opposing defenses, So I'm fine with laying some money on over forty four and a half.

my primary concern here. Do you have any worries about that sort of outcome?

games get away. So even if the Chargers lean on the run here heavily and again I don't expect Melvin Gordon to just come out here and get twenty five carries or anything like that. I'm right, I mean, you know, in the end, that's what it is. And Eckler, you know, is great, but he's not a guy who you can pound into the ground right there. He's much more out

of the passing game. I think that, you know, they'll take their shots enough, but what it really comes down to is, even if they lean on the run, I expect the Broncos to be able to put up points here. So I don't see this as a Chargers are up seventeen to nothing and they're just gonna run and slow the ball that I think that they the Broncos are going to be able to put up points here. So I'm okay forty four and a half. I admit completely.

I have minor concerns here, especially because the Broncos, and I don't like, you know, the Broncos basically are going to have to put up twenty points to be able to make this work. But I think they can and I think, you know, again, they've also played some tough defenses.

They've played the Packers, they played the Bear, so the fact that Joe Flacco is performing as he is and the offense is gelling as much as it is, I think is sort of a testament to the fact that they probably actually have a pretty decent offense, and I think they're going to be able to move the ball here.

the under on this over under. But I like the case that you've laid out, Like you look at the offense for Denver, they've been surprisingly good, they ranked twelfth and DVA, and the passing defense for the Chargers has been surprisingly bad, the thirtieth in DVA. So I see

the blueprint for what you're going for. Like I said, my main concern is that considering how banged up the Chargers receivers are and the fact that they've just got Melvin Gordon back makes me think that they might just try to slow the game down, run fewer plays, and just just go with a run heavy approach. But yeah, if the Broncos can score, am.

So I think that that shows you that most likely the sharper betters are going with the over, and they're going against the public, and that's usually a winning scenario. So for that reason, I feel pretty good there about going with over forty four and a half. Let's get to your third one here, what do you got for me?

better team analytically. They also have a better point differential than the Bengals by about three points, So how come the Cards are three point underdogs. Ultimately, this matchup just appears to be a true test of that home field advantage being worth three point scenario right. But as close as this these two teams are in overall efficiency, there are certain angles where I feel like Arizona has a

distinct advantage. Specifically with their rushing offense. The Cardinals ranked fifth and rushing offense DVA, while the Bengals ranked twenty second in rushing defense dvaway and as bad as the Arizona O line has been in pass protection, where they're twenty eighth in adjusted sacrate, they've been really solid in the running game with an adjusted lineyards mark ranking eleventh best in the NFL. And for comparison, you look at the other side of the line matchup there, the Bengals

D line ranks twenty second in adjusted lineyards. So you add it all up, and the Cardinals should be able to run the ball. And that's probably the biggest concern I have with someone who might try to tuck themselves into the over on this game of forty seven points based upon the project pace of these two teams. Like like, don't get me wrong, I think the over is probably still a better bet than the under based on those

projected pay stats, But I don't know. We haven't seen these teams play with a big lead yet, and so if Arizona gets up big or if Cincinnati gets up big, does that that pace that we're expecting come crashing down. But in general, Arizona is by far the fastest team. Cincinnati ranks tenth in seconds per play, And when the score differential is plus or minus six points, you know that is a one possession game. So I'm not going

to pick the over with high confidence. There's just too much risk of a run heavy approach from Arizona kind of sucking the life out of the ball like we just talked about with the Chargers, especially now that the Bengals are missing John Brown to injury. So while I do like the over in this matchup, I'm much more inclined just to tap the underdog who probably shouldn't be an underdog. So I'm gonna take the points. I'm gonna

take Arizona. I think that they should be able to cover this, if not win it out right.

them because that is the way I lean. I don't feel quite as strong about it, just because I feel like I've been backing Arizona, you know, especially last week against the Seahawks and they look terrible. I actually think, you know, you brought up the injury to John Ross, and I think that actually is a big deal. If just because it strikes me as Zach Taylor's system kind of needs someone to really stretch the field there to

open things up, right. I mean, even though Ross doesn't get that many targets and he's really just kind of a big play guy, or he had been so far, you know, you don't have aj Green yet. So without that field stretcher right there, I actually think that that's going to have a pretty big impact on the way the Bengals are able to run their offense. And again, they're coming off the short week. They looked absolutely terrible. Their offensive line is dreadful, and again it's too bad defensive.

So I agree with you know, probably lean towards the overall. I know that's not your pick anyway, but I do think that Cincinnati might have a little more trouble. You know, I know they couldn't move the ball at all last week against the Steelers, but I think they might have sort of surprising trouble putting up points here against an admittedly bad defense. So I certainly lean towards Arizona with you.

I'm not going crazy over it just because man, Arizona, it's they're just not a great football team, especially right now with Peterson still out, and you know their injuries to their cornerbacks and their offensive line as well. But if they lean on the run here a little more, which is what you think they're going to wind up doing, I certainly think that that leans towards Arizona getting three points.

All right, let's move on here. My last one is I am taking another over under here, but I'm going back to my favorite, which is under, and I'm going to take the Cowboys and the Packers to come in under forty six and a half. Now, my reasoning here is not rocket science. Just take a giant step back. Think about the game from like an average football fans point of view. If you are the Packers defense, you probably want to do what you can to keep Dak

Prescott on the sideline as much as possible. And if you're the Cowboys, you want to do the same with Aaron Rodgers. And if you're the Cowboys, you're in luck because even though the Packers have an outstanding pass defense, as I've mentioned three times already, they have a pretty leaky run defense. And that sounds like a whole lot

of Ezekiel Elliott to me, with long, methodical drives. And you add to that the fact that Tyron Smith is going to miss this game, and I think the Cowboys are going to have major struggles moving the ball through the air, and the Packers are off a mini BI and Dallas is on a bit of a short week now. I ornarily I would say, okay, well, let the Packers are probably going to be able to move the ball pretty well put up some points. But again, you've got

DeVante Adams almost certainly missing this game. Geronimo Allison, Marcus Valdez scantling, Jimmy Graham. You saw how frustrated Aaron Rodgers was without Adams there at the end of the game. You still have Aaron Jones, of course, but Dallas overall has a pretty solid defense, and the Packers, for whatever reason, they just stop playing in the side and a half. I mean, I don't know how many points I want to say, it's like ten points or fewer that they

put up in the second half all season long. So this game strikes me as a close game, relatively low scoring. The total has come down since that look aheadline. I think it might have been forty seven and a half at some point, but for now, I will take the under on forty six and a half. And this one strikes me as something where it's going to be much closer to, like, you know, mid between thirty five and forty as both teams try to kind of control the ball well.

love this call. I think in general, Aaron Rodgers is a little bit more washed than some people might want to admit. I'm not saying he's bad. I'm just saying he's not the quarterback he once used to be. And you see that reflected in their offensive numbers. They rank sixteenth and dvs. Thirteenth and passing offense DV away. He

is not an elite passer anymore. And if they're missing Demante Adams, like you said, this could be kind of a rude awakening for them against a pretty solid Cowboys defense. And above all that point you made about Ezekiel Elliott going crazy against this Green Bay running defense, that's a great one. The Packers rank twenty seventh in rushing defense DVA thirty first in adjusted lineyards along the defensive line. So yeah, I totally agree this is a great call.

It might be the best bet that we've thrown out here all game or all day because it is one that really kind of clashes against that public team perception.

And again you called it right. I mean, this is a game and when book bankers set the lines, they think about which way the public is going to go, of course, because they want the money to basically even out on both sides. So it is something where I think this line is set intentionally. It has come down, as I've said, but not enough for me to be scared off.

in under forty six and a half. Now, before we move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Now you know about betmgm already, and in particular the betmgm Sports app, because it's the easiest and best way to place a bet if you were in the state of New Jersey. Just search for and download the Betmgmsports app on your phone or visit betmgm dot com. Sign up for an account, and you

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with defense, has caught me off guard. So I don't have a good feel for either of these teams just yet. I think it's going to take me a couple more weeks. But more than anything else, I just hate the number. If it was a flat minus three, I'd feel much safer laying the wood with San Francisco, especially as they come off their by but that extra half point, while it might not seem like much, is enough to scare me off. I just have no idea what to do

with this game. What do you think about Browns at niners?

made me essentially think that they're in complete disarray. Well, they looked great last week, and I realized there was an unexpected injury on the defensive side of the ball for Baltimore, but they looked so much better than I could remember them looking. And there's no reason for them to be playing just so disjointed as they had been all season long. So I can see them coming back on the other side the forty nine ers. It's this is just very unexpected at this point, and I haven't

really gotten a good sense of that. And again to your exact point. And you know, I don't think there could be any greater endorsement of the fact that you want to avoid this bet is that when you look at the consensus breakdown, it's fifty three percent to forty seven percent, so it's split roughly down the middle. And if you look at the top twenty percent of most accurate experts, it's exactly fifty to fifty. I think that it basically says it all. It's because there is no

smart lean on this one whatsoever. I have absolutely no feel for it. I'll be honest. I ask our guests to send me their picks in advance, just so I can make sure that I don't accidentally jump on them beforehand. This was definitely going to be my bet to avoid. I told Greg, you could do whatever you want, it would be fine. This one hundred percent would have been my bet to avoid because I have zero feel for it. So I hate you for stealing it, but I do think that it's a great pick, so I agree one

hundred percent. For me, I'm going to go with my second bet to avoid. And again you pointed it correctly. There are a lot of bets that we could be talking about each and every week, and especially this week, I'm avoiding the Texans laying five to the Falcons. First of all, that's basically what I kind of expected to see from the point spread. But I think both these teams are a little desperate for a win here, and I kind of expect this to be a shootout. The

Falcons defense is pretty banged up. We know they lost Kean O'Neil. Deshaun Watson has been playing poorly. There is going to be a lot of DeAndre Hopkins in this game and a lot of points from Houston. But I also think there's going to be a ton of points from the Falcons here. And I realized they have not played well. They have issues with their offensive line, but I think they know they have to get Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley more involved than last week. I think

they can easily have success against the Houston secondary. And even if Houston wins like I expect, and even if they can jump out to a laite, I can completely see this last second cover for the Falcons.

bias because the Titans last week. They have a way of making other teams look bad, like we talked about earlier, and Houston's pass defense is such a mess, Like they have so many injuries in that secondary that even if Houston is cruising that backdoor cover from Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley in company, like that's definitely in play. I expected, you know, Houston minus three, Houston minus four, So Houston minus five or five and a half that that really

is scary to me. If anything, I would take Atlanta here, But I agree in general, it's probably just to stay away.

And this is another one where another matchup where I feel like it's hard to pin down exactly how good these teams are. What do you think about this one, because this is one that I really struggled with.

going to do it. So I don't expect the Saints to be putting up a ton of points here in this game, and the bucks, you know, they're a little jekyl and I get, but you know you can see what that offense can do even against the strong defense. So if you were giving me five points, I was all over it. At three, I don't like it. If anything, I think i'd risk it and take the bucks on the money line and go for it that way, because I could see them winning out right. But I don't

think I have any interest in it going three. I actually, honestly, I did not even realize that it had gone down

that low. So certainly that low three and a half, I'm a little intrigued where it was, but still probably staying away when it was more a four, four and a half, even five at some places, I was all over it, all right, real quick, Before we get to our next segment, I do want to remind everyone about our contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet courtesy of our good friends over at Pristine Auction. You've got a couple more weeks here to enter, so

go ahead and do so. Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com, and if you entered last month's contest you are already in, so no worries there. All right, Greg, it is time for Top Prop, where we list our top player proper for the weekend. Now, you mentioned Marquise Brown. Is that right? That that was one of the ones you like but not your top prop?

of this game should be very up tempo. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals rank first in situation neutral pace, the Bengals ranked twelfth, and overall, the Cards rank first and seconds per play while the Bengals ranked seventh, So that's in all situations. Murray himself his eclipsed three hundred passing yards twice this season, already against Baltimore and against Detroit,

although that did have some help from overtime. Against the Panthers, he only got to one hundred and seventy one yards, but Carolina's defense is one of the best in the league. And against the Seahawks, Kyler made it to two hundred and forty one yards, but Seattle plays with one of the slowest paces in the league, so it kind of makes sense that the Cardinals got slowed down in that

he wasn't able to throw quite as much. Now, Kyler Murray gets to face an up tempo team with a bad defense like the Bengals are really bad, and the Cardinals play with that for anatic pace themselves, So I think it makes sense to project a lot of yards a lot of scoring in this game. As I alluded to earlier when discussing the game, you know the line

and the total. There is some risk of a run heavy approach with Arizona with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds, And on top of that, we do have yet to see either of these teams play with a lead off greater than seven points, so we don't really have any munication of what their paces might be if they can

establish some sort of points cushion. So I guess if you want to play it more conservative, you can scale back the upside and get Kyler Murray to hit two hundred and fifty passing yards at plus one oh six. So that's kind of a backup if you're not quite as greedy as I am. But I'd rather take the shot at the bigger payout with three three hundred or more passing yards at plus three fifty.

at tackling. I wrote off the game against the forty nine ers where they could not tackle anyone, because they looked halfway decent against the Seahawks in Week one, but man, they are just I mean, you can take a short, you know, screen pass, or you can take a slant and you can just take it to the house because I can't tackle anybody. I was going to ask you, but you brought it up and you got ahead of it.

Is that you did say that you expected this to be probably focused a little bit more on the run ideally for the Cardinals. But at plus three fifty, I mean, those are great odds in the game where Murray, who has put up you know, big passing numbers already at

some point this season, can get there again. So I do like to pick, particularly with the odds, and I like going a little boulder, you know, and then the two fifty because you know, plus three fifty that's a nice little pay day if you can hit it well.

exploit that. But I think if anything, he might just do that to set up more passing, because we know that's what he really wants to be doing.

next week shows with a British accent the entire way. Okay, he has surpassed that number in just one of four games this year, but it's about to be two. I don't know which one of Desmond Trufont or Isaiah Oliver is going to be on Hopkins for most of the day, but it's not going to matter. As I said, I think the Texans are going to put up a ton of points here. I think Hopkins is going to have a big role in it. And at minus one fourteen, I mean, that's really not that much deuce to have

to lay. So I feel pretty confident. I realize I know one out of the four games, but this is a game both him and Julio Jones I think are gonna have huge games. I expect both teams to put up a ton of points here so if he doesn't go over eighty. So this is the prop. I'm gonna be honest, This is the prop since we started this that I feel most confident in. So I'm calling it British accent. If it doesn't hit, I'm ready to do it on one of the next two shows.

Hopkins in the past. It's just not that easy to do, even with you know, occasional double coverage. So I like it. I think I might have even gone bolder, like looked at the props for one hundred yards or what, but maybe the payoffs just wasn't quite there. I'm not sure exactly what you were looking at. But I like it. Eighty six yards seems like a gimme.

in this game. I think this is a game. You know, it's not quite Adam feelin But there's rumblings here about the fact that Hopkins hasn't gotten any production and that he needs to and again, you know he could have in the past. Watson has just missed him a couple of times, him and Fuller last week, as he explained that in that great clip with that reporter. But in the end, I think this is gonna be a Mantras game.

I would I would probably lay it on a Will Fuller prop too, because I think both guys are gonna have a big one. So you will go with Kyler Murray, who I hope you're right by the way, because I do have a lot of stocking him in fantasy. I'm just going to throw that out there to go over three hundred passing yards at plus three fifty, I'm going to take DeAndre Hopkins over eighty six and a half receiving yards at minus one fourteen. Well, that's going to do it for today's show. Thanks for joining me.

want to check out our podcast feed over there. You can find my weekly rankings for fantasy football over at two qbs dot com and then those articles. I try to work in a pick or two every week. I do a gameplbotics spreadsheet. You'll see me tweet out every once in a while. All these DVOA numbers, all these point differential numbers, that stuff that I'm pulling directly from the spreadsheet. It's publicly available data from football outsiders. I color code the spreadsheets so that you can kind of

see how the teams match up against each other. I started making it for myself way back in the day just as a tool to use week to week when I'm figuring out which I want to use in fantasy, which games I want to bet, and I decided, Hey, might as well just put this out there for everybody to use. So check that out and otherwise follow me on Twitter at Gregsauce.