Best NFL Week 4 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 13)

prop bet for the weekend. But JJ look, I usually like to ease our guests into this, okay, but we're on a pretty good run here with the picks after going three and oh for week two, follow that up last week with another three and oh week, getting right the Bills and Bengals under forty four, the Rams laying three to the Browns and the Saints getting four from

the Seahawks. And our guest Adam Burke now two of his three picks, with the Lions getting six and a half from the Eagles and the Rams and the Browns coming in under forty seven and a half. So are you ready to bring the thunder here or what?

how I pick that game. You can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to show you how I and every betting expert who makes picks on the site made their picks for every game on the slate. We'll also be using the betting pros dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds that you're going to find available in the market. All right, JJ, start us off. What's your first pick here?

already know, you know kind of my stick. For me, the number is so important when you're betting NFL in particlo I mean any sport for that matter, but the number is important. Having a good idea of the market in which way the market's going to swing A line in one direction or the other right now that everybody's kind of drinking the Colts kool aid, especially after if you remember, before the season started with no Andrew luck,

everybody was kind of against this team. Now it's almost like the market it has taken too big of a shift in favor of the Colts here. Last week they were playing the Falcons, where the Falcons were an extremely popular play, at least as far as the market goes. Obviously the Colts handle business. You might look at the final score and see they only one by three, but if you watch the game, you knew the Colts more or less handled business throughout. They also have a road

win at the Titans in a primetime spot. For me, this is becoming a situation where this line is too big. Now. I get it, Ook was not an easy team to back, right that just got Mali wopped by Minnesota, and obviously they lost to the Chiefs after an interesting Week one, but I just feel like we now have too much of a market overreaction here in favor of the Colts. It's a huge number here. There's a lot of factors I could break down in this game specifically, but for me,

it's really about the number here. If this one was four and a half or five, I'd be staying away. But at seven, I love this play. It's one of my favorites of the week. Give me the Raiders plus all seven points versus the Colts.

in favor of Oakland given the spread. And I agree with you, and really, if for no other reason, then you've got some major injuries here on the cult side, right, I mean t Y Hilton. I don't think his practice yet this week. He reinjured his squad last week. That could be a big deal. And Darius Leonard is probably

not going to be able to suit up either. And you know you pointed out the exact right issue is that backing Oakland just feels kind of dirty for lack of a better way to say it, right, I mean, they don't inspire a whole lot of confidence, and they do, to be fair, have some injuries to their linebacking court too. But I agree with you at this point, the line is a little big, and you're right, the public perception has kind of gone all the way in the other

way toward towards the cults here. So on our consensus, it's actually sixty eight percent of experts are backing Indy. But I'm with you here. I like the Raiders here for basically most of the reasons you described, and really the injuries that are going on with Indianapolis.

of the last two weeks. I took them going up against the Giants and then I bet against them laying four to the Bengals last week, but they've played three games. They should have lost to the Jets, and would have in Week one had CJ. Moseley not been injured in the second half. They beat up on a porous Eli Manning led Giants team in Week two, and then they barely squeaked by what is an adequate but generally unimpressive Bengals team at home. Now, the defense is legitimate, I'm

going to agree they there. They were very, very good. Last year. They allowed just four point nine yards per play, that was third best in the league. They're giving up almost the exact same number this year four point eight yards per play. At Oliver and Tremaine Edmonds are playing great for Deavius White continues to play well in coverage. They did lose Harrison Phillips. It's going to hurt a tiny bit, but I don't really think it's enough to

make a difference. The defense is really strong, but regardless, it is not good enough to stop the Patriots offense. It's just not Almost no defense is. And I say that with the full understanding that the Patriots may not have Julian Edelman for this game, and James Devlin is out, and that actually really affects their running game. It is all irrelevant to me. The coaching staff is too good. They'll find ways to use James White and Rex Burkhead

and Philip Rssett will get involved. Brady hasn't exactly lit the Bills up in his history against Sean McDermot and Leslie Fraser's defense, but in the last two years, the Patriots have outscored the Bills in Buffalo forty eight to nine. And going the opposite way, I do not see the Bills being able to put up all that many points against the Patriots defense. I mean, regardless of the quality of the opponent. That defense is elite. Gilmour is playing

like one of the best corners in the league. Jamie Collins is wreaking havoc all over the field. They've got depth, they've got speed. They've got six interceptions already in three games, and now they face a guy who has more than an interception per game in his career. They have not allowed a point in the first half of their last five games, dating back to their playoff game against the Chiefs and the Super Bowl against the Rams. The weather

is going to be fine. That can always be something that happens in Buffalo, but it's early, it's going to be in the sixties and sunny. I think this is a statement game for the Pats. I think they're coming in here. They've got another three to zero team who really isn't that good. I think they want to make a statement. This is their AFC East. They're not gonna let it be wrestled away. So I think they're going to go up there, and I think they're gonna win

this game handly. So I will take the Patriots, even at that key number. It's a high number, laying seven, I'll take the Patriots. And I really don't have too many second thoughts about it.

can always beat up on the bad teams. I mean the Steelers, Dolphins, and Jets. Koby, the Steelers are not what we thought they were going to be, and obviously there's no Roethlisberger, and then the Dolphins and the Jets are two teams in the NFL. I don't mind the idea that, oh, well, the Buffalo Bills haven't played anyboddy and now they're really getting their first test. But for me, it's it's a tough spot for me because I truly don't know how good the Buffalo Bills are or aren't.

I think the assumptions could be made that they're not that good. But remember this was a team that was getting a lot of hype preseason about their improvements on defense and interesting to see how they play here now. I feel like this would have this would have been to the Buffalo's advantage if this game's played a little later in the year, where it's a little colder, maybe some snow, maybe you could really lean on the home crowd,

the Bill's mafia. By the way, how is it not on everybody's bucket list to go through a table outside Buffalo Stadium? Pregame. But look, ultimately I do like the call. For me, it was a more or less a stay away spot at seven hoping to get I'd hope to get six and a half on one side or seven and a half on the other if I was going to bet it. But again, I can't question anybody who backs New England against Buffalo, that's for sure.

the Patriots at this point. Honestly, I would feel better about the Bills had they lost a game at some point coming in. I think when you have the AFC East Showdown both three and zero, I think, realistically the Pats are just going to go in there, and I think they're going to want to make a statement. The injuries are slightly concerning. If Henlelman misses the game, eventually, you're gonna have to have somebody to throw the ball

to because Josh Gordon is also battling injury. At least last week against the Jets, he was on and off the field, so it's a little worrisome he is practicing on a limited basis. But regardless, this just feels to me like this is going to be the statement game for the Pats. So I'm willing to lay the big number. I agree seven is a lot, but I'm willing to lay it.

I have watched the Patriots closely over the last twenty years or so, and realistically, this just strikes me as them being like, oh, really, you're three and zero, You're coming here. You're saying you want to take this division, you will take it from my cold dead hands. So that's just how I see this game unfolding. And again, it's not an overly popular pick. I think the money,

if anything, trends towards the Bills here. I think the consensus picks are relatively even, maybe even a little shaded towards the Bills last time I checked. But in the end, I'm really comfortable with this game. So I'm gonna do it, and I'm not gonna have too many worries about it personally. Let's move on to here. Second pick, what do you got for me?

they didn't play well. They're also one and two against the spread, with their loan win being a game against Chicago, where pending when you bet it, they actually could have been zero and three against the spread. The reason I like the spot here is really in the trenches. You take a look at Denver's defensive line and what they can bring to the table from the linebacker perspective as well,

and that Jacksonville offensive line. It's just one of the worst and offensive lines in the NFL haven't had really that many opportunities to be exposed all that much. Yet. You know, Titans, Texans chiefs. Obviously Texans can bring a good pass rush, but more or less they kind of held Jacksonville in check for the most part. There. Thinking here, though, is you get the young quarterback Garner Minshew has to travel to Denver. This will be what I believe to

be his first true road game as a starter. I mean, I know that he kind of sloted in in Houston, I believe. But ultimately this is gonna be a tough place to play for him. And again, a lot of pressure is going to be assumed to come up the middle for him. He's gonna have to do a lot of scrambling, make a lot of uncomfortable throws. I know that it's tough to back Denver and Joe Flacco and how that offense has been producing. But again, you know,

how do you beat Jacksonville, right? You beat them with the run game. Denver's got a very good run game with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. I would expect them to lean heavy on that. A lot of screens play action, and again, you know, the whole Jayalin Ramsey situation is still weird. For me. This is a big slam spot for the Broncos. Again. I know they're zero to three. I know everybody's drinking the Gardner Minshew kool aid, But for me, the numbers a little too small here. Jacksonville's

getting a little too much respect. I know they get the extra A few days after Thursday Night Football, everybody watched them win primetime against the Titans, and everybody just watched Denver lose in a bad one against the Packers. Again, this is a week to week league. Really like Demver in this spot.

You know, if you're leveraging four or five sports books, and I know it's kind of hard to keep that much money tied up in different areas, But if you're leveraging that many sports books, you're going to notice differences in lines. Whether it's fifteen twenty cents here, fifteen twenty cents there, half a point here, half a point there. Might not matter in a one week sample, but multiply

that by fifty two weeks, by three four years. You're talking, you know, you're talking easily an additional thirty forty bets over the course of a season, maybe even more, that are in your favor one hundred percent.

As for me, I lean in your direction. It feels uncomfortable again to go with Denver. How do they not have a sack on the year? I do not understand. My guess is you pointed out the problems with the Jaguars line that they're gonna get a bunch. I think they're gonna be motivated this week. I'm a little I get a little worried about the Mini bi you know,

the playing off of Thursday. Teams like that. I feel like generally come out strong, but They're probably coming off a little bit of a high, and I think Denver really, I mean, if they're gonna do anything this season, which they're obviously not, but if they're going to at all make a statement for this season, it's gonna be here at home against a very mediocre team, against you know, a kid making his third professional start. So I lean

towards your way. I don't know if I would have enough to take it at laying three, but I definitely lean your way. I do think that the defense is going to come out and try to make a statement here. Let's move on to my second pick, and that is going to be the under on the Panthers Texans, and

that is at forty seven and a half. Look, Kyle Allen looked great last week, and frankly, had he been the quarterback for the Panthers since the start of the season, I'm pretty sure that they're three and zero right now. But that is much more because of how bad Cam Newton was. I think everyone's going just a little bit crazy about evaluating Allen off a game against a truly

terrible defense in the Cardinals. I know he looked good when he filled in at the very end of last year, but you really can't draw too many conclusions from that. With a full game of tape and obviously a much stronger defense here with the Texans, I think Alan is going to have a much tougher time moving the Panthers towards scoring points. Now. The Texans are solid against the run.

They're not spectacular, but they're solid enough. They're same against the pass despite the fact that they've had a tough matchup with Drew Brees. You mentioned the fact that they can get to the quarterback, and playing in Arizona like Allen did last week, it's not even like a really road game. I mean, they never play well at home. The fans aren't crazy right now, but playing in Houston certainly is a road game, so I expect the Panthers offense to largely be held in check. On the flip side,

their defense overall remains very strong. They're allowing just four point three yards per play, and they're particularly good against the pass. And the fact that they're so good against the paths is really what leads me towards the under here. They put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks at least thirty percent of the time in each of their first three games so far. James Bradbury is playing extremely well right now, so is Dante Jackson, and they're generally

holding a pass offenses in check. Their real weak spot is against the run, and that's gotten a little better in recent weeks, although some of that is the opponent, but regardless, that is just not where the Texans butter their bread. They don't involve Duke Johnson much. Carlos Hide has been fine, but he is not going to run down the Panthers throat. It's not the place that the Texans can really exploit another team in the end. This strikes me as a kind of tight defensive game where

neither team piles up the point. So I'm happily going to take the under here at forty seven and a half, like like the call.

fair share of hits. But he you know, he's definitely holds on it way too long and could find himself getting blindsided one of these days, and yeah, be in a lot of trouble. But ultimately, for me, as long

as Carolina can keep this slow scoring for themselves. And I say that because Houston just always appears to be one of those teams week in and week out that kind of like if they go down big, you almost kind of know they're gonna come back, you know, just based on how Watson, you know, almost like turns Madden on as starts running around back there and finding Hopkins

fine and fuller. So you would hope that you can kind of keep this low scoring in the in the low twenties towards the end of it, maybe in the low teens, you know, for the first half, because again, you know, I feel like if Carolina starts getting going, obviously Houston's gonna get that same mojo. But ultimately it does make a lot of sense. It's gonna be a tough test for Kyle Allen going up against that Houston defensive front, so you think they'd be able to keep

him in check. And again Carolina's defense is no such either. Would expect plenty of sacks on their end, maybe evenna turn over to really like this spot under as well.

think that's how this game is gonna play out. I could be wrong on Alan, and if I am, then he's going to be able to just light it up. But I don't see that happening in this game against a much stronger defense than he played last week. I think in the end, it's going to be tight for most of the game, So Watson's not going to do the thing where he's going to go Superman. They're going to do what they can, but again, I don't expect them to be able to do that much on the

passing side of the ball. I think they're going to have to use the run game that's gonna eat up some clock which helps the under So for me, I feel pretty good about it. But you know, I if Kyle Allen does this again, then I'm going to have to completely reevaluate the way I feel generally about the Panthers. But for now, I'm willing to write off last week for the most part as playing a game against a really, really bad Arizona defense. Let's move on to your third pick here, what he.

first of all, that's been competitive in every game they've played. Now, if you make the argument that okay, well the Cardinals aren't really that good, fine, but they were winning against the Cardinals pretty big. They went into a prevent defense and allowed Arizona to come back. They handled the Chargers, They most certainly handled the Eagles. That three point score does not nearly show how dominant Detroit was throughout. This

is just a team that's doing enough to hang around. Now, Slay I know, is a little banged up and he's a big, a big time player for them on the defensive side at the corner position, so hopefully he can play. But either way, this is a gigantic number for Detroit. Now, I know Kansas City is a very public public betting team as they should be that cover a lot of spreads. Mahomes is very fun to watch. It's a very quote unquote sexy quarterback with all the big throws and all

the flashy plays. But again, if there's a team that can really slow him down at least somewhat defensively, you would think not only could Detroit do it, but you would also think that Stafford and Gala Day and carry on. Johnson could keep up pace with this team if this had to get into the high twenties. Really like the spot. I think this is a big number and Detroit actually has an opportunity here to surprise folks and maybe pull the upset.

reasons that you said. Assuming that Sleigh is there, which I know wouldn't move the line much, but here it would be pretty significant. When I look at the line, that line's too high on what I've seen out of Detroit, and based on the fact that Detroit's going to be home, they easily could be three and h and yet I would have such a tough time going up against Mahomes because I feel like what he's able to do sometimes just defies what you can do when you just rationally

look at a game. Does that make sense what I'm saying. I mean, I don't know if it's.

of a lot. I mean, you know, Auburn really wasn't meant to even be that good that year that he played. At least he's he's at least what means the most to me in reference to what Mahomes has been doing at the NFL level, because you're right. I mean, you know, you put the numbers in front of you, you put projections in front of you, and and numbers make sense to back almost it almost numbers make sense to almost fade Kansas City every week. But week in and week out,

Mahomes overperforms models. And even if you adjust the models, I mean, you can't adjust models where you're projecting Mahomes to throw for three to fifty every week. So you know, at the end of the day, you're completely right. There are certain players that can be model busters, and Mahomes has certainly been this way early on his career, whether it's Andy Reid and him being a perfect potion together, or you know, just his talent when overlooked by many.

But regardless, he is quite a stud. But I just really like the like the number here. This wasn't that I know that teams that Kansasity have been playing have been getting loved the last few weeks. And I know Baltimore backdoor covers last week. Well, unless you got it really late, you would have covered with Kansas City then at four and a half or four. But again for me, strong number here with Detroit at home, who's looked very competitive.

Kansas City may have too much speed, but ultimately time will tell, and I do believe Detroit can keep pace. They've looked really good offensively as well as defensively thus far.

I don't know whether or not eventually when I make my final selections this week, when I place all my bets, whether or not I'm going to actually wind up pulling the trigger. But if I do, I'm sure it's going to be on the Lions. Let's go to my third pick here, which is something that also I don't feel comfortable with, but when I've looked at it, I just I can't really get away from it. And it's the Cardinals getting six at home against the Seahawks. Now, this

line has moved, and it's moved pretty hard. I think the look aheadline may have been Arizona getting three and a half perhaps, so it's jumped pretty significantly in favor

of Seattle. And the number of bets here is roughly seventy five percent in favor of the Seahawks, but the total amount bet is close to fifty to fifty would suggest that there's probably more sharpbetters in on the Cardinals, and I think there's an obvious reason why, and that obvious reason is that the Seahawks just are not very good. I explained it a lot last week when I took

the Saints getting four points against Seattle. But they barely squeaked by the Bengals at home in Week one, and barely squeaked by a Pittsburgh team that had to put in Mason Rudolph mid game, and despite the final score last week, they lost pretty handily to the Saints in their home building. Led by Teddy Bridgewater and again I

talked about it last in the week. The strength of their defensive unit is their linebackers, right, so they just pretty much leave their base package out there all day long, which means if you can throw on them, and pretty much everyone can throw on them, then they're vulnerable. Kyler Murray liked Deshaun Watson. Then we said he holds the ball way too long, and that's devastating when you have a terrible offensive line and the run game it's pretty much non existent.

their missing pieces at cornerback. But I look at this game as being one where the Seahawks really want to get their run game going against the third worst rush defense in the league. They want to get Chris Carson back on track. Rareshad Penny May come back. They want to run the ball generally as much as any team in the league. So if Russell Wilson wanted to, or if he had an offensive coordinator who wanted him to, he could go nuts against this pass defense, kind of

like he did at the end of last game. But he doesn't have an offensive coordinator who wants to do that, So I don't expect their repeat of last week. I expect more of a repeat of the game against the Bengals in Week one, where the Seahawks won by a point, a slow, kind of grinded out, methodical win where the Seahawks can do what they do best at four points when I saw when I first looked ahead, I was

uncomfortable with that line. But at six, it's just something where I don't think I can get away from it because I think that number is just too.

or defensively, I don't. Offensively, they've kind of looked together per se, but uh, you know, they're also you know, they're playing at a pace that's that's kind of frantic at least as far as NFL standard goes. And they run a ton of four wide receiver sets, so it is kind of actually fun to watch them play. But again, you got to figure, you know that Seattle defense obviously

is not near what it used to be. You know, the only the only question I would have obviously is if if this became a shootout, ken Arizona keep up, because that's kind of been their their issue, you know, at least most recently where Carolina kind of they were kind of close throughout and then Carolina just hit kept hitting the gas and then Arizona didn't. You know, you kind of know what you're gonna get out of Arizona's defense.

But if they can certainly put a few touchdowns up on the board, they'll easily cover this number.

deer in headlights. So if Seattle gets out to a big lead here, yeah, this bet is certainly in trouble, I really think, And just reading the tea leaves, he listened to the way Pete Carroll's talking. Again. Last year, they ran the ball roughly fifty percent of the time. It was the most by far in the NFL. And if they that's what they want to be. They don't want to have Russell Wilson running around like a madman, chucking it down the field, potentially getting injured when he's

taking off and running all the time. They want to be a run first team. I think they think they can win this game. I could see even worst case scenario, a backdoor cover at the very end, but I just don't see this as something where they're going to get way out ahead I think this is going to be

one where it's going to be pretty close throughout. Seattle's not going to put their foot on the gas because that's not how they run their offense, right, I mean, they go crazy only when they're behind, and there you know Wilson is going into the Deshaun Watson superman mode. So in the end, I see it as more of a run heavy game. I think they need to get Chris Carson right. I think they need to go back to doing what they want to be doing. And so I see this as much more of a close game

and a divisional one. Again, I think the Seahawks are going to come out on top. And to your point, I mean I'm looking around right now, and when I look at the odds available in the market, if you look at it on fad Duel, it's only five. I don't love it at that number. Six is much different to me than five, certainly than four that it was. But that's the point. Look around. If it's at five, no, I'm not nearly as comfortable with it. But at six, as it's available at a lot of places, I think

I'm good with that. There like the spot, love the number, yep, all right, let's recap here. JJ. You like the Raiders plus six and a half or seven against the Colts. You like the Broncos laying three to the Jets and the Lions getting six and a half from the Chiefs. I'll take the Patriots laying seven to the Bills, the Panthers and the Texans to come under forty seven and a half, and the Cardinals at home getting six from the Seahawks. Before we move on, I do want to

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two defenses that have really been underperforming, specifically Pittsburgh. But again, you have two quarterbacks that are so in question, and I think a lot of people aren't even gonna are gonna completely look past the spot up until probably Monday afternoon, Monday evening, and the more or less end up convincing themselves to bet this game over because it's a small number, but you just have two quarterbacks and two offenses who have been completely unpredictable. And it's just not a spot

I want to be anywhere near come Monday night. It's not a spot I want to bet the over. It's not a spot I want to bet the under. It's a tricky number with the two teams. With the two teams and specifically the two quarterbacks, you're getting Matt in this game, and again along with the spotty defensive play and spotty offensive play. So I'd be interested to see anybody that could convince me of why the over makes sense or why the under makes sense, because to me, neither does.

but especially in the divisional game. And it's primetime too, so you really don't know what Dalton is going to show up. It is a thing where I had zero sense for the total coming on here forty four. You know, it seems roughly right, and because of that, I don't

really lean anyway at all. So I think that's actually a really good call, because it's something where I feel like you look at a bet, and you look at a number, and whether or not you use a model, or whether or not you project it in advance and then look at it, you get a feel for which way you're leaning, and if it's close to the number, that's fine for me. I would have no idea what to do here with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, so I love the call. I certainly would stay away from it, and

I would certainly be all over that as well. For me, my bet to avoid is the Chargers laying fifteen and a half to the Dolphins. Now, we might be able to save some time on this segment in the future if we just insert the Dolphins and whoever they are playing into my pick here every week for the foreseeable future. The Dolphins are historically bad, historically bad, but they gave the Dallas a little scare in the first half. They could have been leading in that game, they didn't funnel

it away. And every week when I look at the number in the Dolphins game, I see value in the Dolphins every single week. But again, Rufus Peabody and Rich Ryan, they talked about this concept of model busters, not a novel thing or anything, but how both the Dolphins and Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs really fit that mold because whatever model you use is gonna tell you that you should probably take the points. And here you've got a

West Coast team traveling east. They're a little banged up, they don't usually put up a million points, so I can certainly see value in the Dolphins, but I can't take this game. It's not like the last two weeks where it's twenty points or more than that, but it's a lot of points. I just can't in good conscience take the Dolphin, even though that's where I think I see the value. It's the type of game where I just need to avoid, and I think I maybe just

need to avoid Dobins games. I don't know how you feel if you've been able to properly analyze these games, but at least with the Chargers lank fifteen and a half at a high number, I'm just not willing to go anywhere near this game.

I mean, they were driving at the end of the first half to tie the game where they fumbled. And again they just kind of make these these head scratching plays on offense and defense consistently. I know it's only been three weeks, but I don't understand how anybody can truly back this team, at least until they show some sense of wanting to actually win a game.

without it until the very end. It's just something where it's just you can't look at it like a normal football team and a normal football game because you just don't know what you're going to get from them whatsoever, regardless of the number that's out there. So it's just something for now, I'm avoiding them. If they could show something any sort of urgency, any sort of you know, spark with Rosen under center again for another game, and

he looked, you know, a little better than Fitzpatrick. But I might be able to start basically, you know, holding my nose and finding the value in the Dolphins and willing to place a wager. But for now, I'm not going anywhere near it. So you're avoiding the total on the Steelers Bengals on Monday night, which is forty three and a half, and I am avoiding the Dolphins getting

fifteen and a half from the Chargers. Now, real quick, before we get to our next segment, I want to remind everyone about our September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet courtesy of our good friends at Pristine Auction. Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And if you've entered last month's contest, you're already in. So nowhere is there?

All right? Jada, it's time for Top Prop, where we list our top player prop of the week. What do you got.

more talented. However, if this was on the road, I wouldn't feel as confident, But again, we have a secondary definitely leaves a lot to be desired. They've had a decent start defensive either there Wiese strange enough have been on the offensive side. But in this spot, you'd have to assume the Rams are going to be able to move the ball. The toll is pretty high. Again, the only thing you question is if this somehow is out

of hand late and they're not throwing. But again, Jared Goff just finds his receivers a lot better at home. He's got McVeigh in the headset, a much more easier to read. He finds his targets much better. He goes through his progressions much easier at home. Again, this number, for me, feels like a number that I typically would see if he was on the road or something similar.

On the road. Feel like I'm getting about ten or fifteen yards in favor here, So give me over Jared Goff passing yards two seventy six and a half.

But last week against you know, Daniel Jones, they were just totally exposed. So I do think that this is kind of a quote unquote get right game for the Rams offense, and I think most of it is going to start with Jared Golf, So I do like that pick a lot for me. I'm going to go with Marlon Mack getting at least one hundred yards rushing at plus one seventy one. Now, this comes down to a few factors. We talked about the fact that t Y

Hilton may miss this game. At the very least, he's probably going to be limited even if he does play, so the pass catching options are a few. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Mac ran for one hundred and thirty two yards against Oakland last year when they played, and the Raiders, as I mentioned earlier, are pretty banged up at linebackers, so I see the Colts looking to exploit them that way.

I think this is a game that the Colts try to control from start to finish, and I think they're going to lean on the run. So I think that's going to mean upwards of twenty carries for Mac, maybe closer to twenty five depending on how this game unfolds, and I see him getting to roughly, you know, a little bit over one hundred. I wouldn't go up to one hundred and twenty five. That's way too much for me. But at plus one seventy one, I'm willing to take it at those outs.

that matter, regardless of who they're playing. Well, you bring up so many good points on the matchup and the opportunity there, especially at the dog price, for an awesome, awesome payout if it hits, and you're right, if the volume's there, the yardage is more than likely going to be there with it.

on their run game. So you're going to take Jared Goff over. I believe it was two hundred and seventy six and a half yards passing, and I will go with Marlon Mack with over one hundred rushing yards. Well, that's going to do it for today's show. JJ thanks a lot for joining me. Remind everyone where they can find more of you in your work.