Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We did a pretty successful week last week, going four and oh with the Bills laying one and a half against the Giants, the Chargers Colts coming in under forty eight points, the Titans and Colts coming in under forty three and a half, and Sony Michelle rushing for more than seventy five yards.
Our guest last week, Andrew Kelly, had more of a mixed bag, hitting on his Cowboys minus five over the Redskins and Cooper Cup over eighty yards receiving, but he missed on the Titans minus three and the Chiefs Raiders over fifty three and a half. Let's see if we can follow it up with an even better week while looking at to be honest, a pretty tough slate in my opinion, with me today to break down some of our best bets, a bet to avoid, and our favorite
player prop bet. Is Adam Burke, a sports betting writer at bangbook dot com and host of Bang the Book Radio. You can find them on Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam, how you doing.
I'm doing well. Dan, How are you?
I'm doing great, buddy. You are the first two time guest on this podcast. How does that feel.
I am very honored, very very honored. Thank you so much for having me.
Oh absolutely, I did. I really enjoyed when you were on the first time. Do you agree with me that this late is really really ugly.
Well, you said that you want to talk about a game to avoid, and if I could, I'd avoid the entire NFL card. It's brutal this week, and the thing of it is, even the teams that don't have substantial injuries, I think that they're very high variance types of games. So it's gonna be a tough week in the NFL.
I think I agree. Well, we are here to navigate you through it, and real quick. Before we get into the show, I do want to remind everyone about our September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet. Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest
at bettingpros dot com. And if you entered last month's contest you are automatically entered into this month, so no worries there, all right, Adam, As always, we're going to get started with pick six, where we are both going to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread or on the over under. And as always, I will note at the outset that we're recording this shortly before kickoff of the Thursday night game, so we're not going to be making any picks on
the Titans Jaguars game, even if we wanted to. But if you want to see how I picked that game, you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to show you how I and basically every betting expert who makes picks on the site made their picks for every game. And we're also going to be using the bettingpros dot com consensus odds in making our picks. Here. Those are the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market. All right, buddy, start us off. What's your first pick?
I gotta say, you said pick six. I thought we're gonna talk about Jameis Winston for a little while before we got into these picks. But you know, for me, like I said, I mean, I think this is such a challenging NFL card, so some of these may have a little bit lower of a degree of confidence than I would typically have in the NFL. But we'll start with the Detroit Lions, and the consensus line out there
now over at betting pros is six and a half. Look, I mean, this is one of those instances where the Lions are coming in pretty healthy overall, nothing that stands out too much. The Eagles have all kinds of issues. Doug Peterson canceled practice on Wednesday. They just went ahead and had a walk through. And what really worries me about this game, and we see this sometimes in the NFL. With these big numbers, you've got to get some margin.
And for the Eagles, the running game isn't doing anything, and what half of their able bodied receivers are out for this game, So I think it's really tough for them to get margin. Tough for the wide receivers to get separation and help Carson Wentz out, and also too to get margin with a secondary as bad as the Eagles secondary has been here so far this season. I think Matt Stafford can move the football for the Lions.
I think the Lions take this game really seriously. Philadelphia's banged up, and they've got a short week and play Green Bay on Thursday night. A lot of check marks in the Lions box for me. So I know it's tough to take a Lions team out on the road, but I think six and a half it's a little bit too much in this game.
I agree with you completely. Actually, they're now one of my picks, of course, because I don't want to double up with you, but I agree I would take the Lions here now. Yeah, I think I'm not sure exactly what it was when it first opened or maybe before, you know, the Sunday Night game. I think it was at seven and a half. It might have been at
eight when it first out of curiosity. How would you have felt about the line if it was at seven and a half, if let's say Deshaun Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey were healthy for this game, because it sounds like both are gonna miss as of right now.
Yeah, I mean, look, I like the Lions. I like the Lions to begin with. On the opener at seven and a half or eight, it's you know, a little bit disappointing. I know you and I are both in the Super Contest. It's disappointing that the Lions are plus six out there in that you can find six and a half in the market, and that they were over a touchdown early in the week. But I mean, look, Philadelphia is supposed to be all about explosiveness. Five yards
per play in two games here so far. I had the Eagles last week in the Super Contest and they were a half yard from winning. They were fourth and three stop from winning. But they were not the right side in that game. They did not play well at all. So this isn't just sour grapes and going against them.
It's just something misfiring with that offense. And I don't know if it's Wentz shaking off the rust or if it's all injury related, but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Eagles laying big numbers against you know, anybody not named the Dolphins of the Jets right now.
And honestly, the Lions have been a lot better than I expected. I mean, they could easily beat two and zero if they had managed to hold on against the Cardinals instead of taking the tie in Week one. Their defense was played a little bit better than I expected. The offense, you know, it's given Matt Stafford a bunch of different weapons. Carrie on Johnson has looked, you know fine, maybe hasn't taken the leap yet that maybe we all expected, although we did have that long touchdown last week. So
in the end, this is for me. I agree with you. I'm on your side for sure. It's as much about the Lions as it is about the Eagles here, so I agree with you. Even on the road. I do like the Lions plus six and a half, so I'm with you on that one. My first pick, I'm going with an over under here, and it's under forty four on the Bengals at the Bills. Now, I also lean a little bit towards the Bengals here to cover the six point spread, but that's not going to be one
of my picks. The Bills' first two games have total thirty three and forty two against the Giants and the Jets, and they put up twenty eight points last week against the Giants, but I don't expect them to do that here. First, the Giants defense, as I said last week, is really just abysmal. They might not quite be at the Dolphins level, but they're really not that far off. And I fully admit that whatever the Bengals did on defense last week
against the forty nine ers was not actual defense. They had one of the worst tackling performances I've ever seen in watching NFL games, But that does not really strike me necessarily as this sustainable phenomenon. They really didn't look like that against Seattle in Week one. Now you add to that the fact that Devin Singletary is almost certainly out for this game. And I love Frank More, but I think it's safe to say that the Bengals aren't going to be giving up, you know, close to two
hundred and sixty rushing yards. I like Josh Allen, but still have the accuracy concerns. I don't hate Cincinnati's cornerbacks, and I'm a little concerned. You know, there are some things when I was digging deep into this game, sounds like Carl Lawson may miss this game, which takes away, you know, since he's pass rush. But really, in the end, what I think is this is probably gonna wind up being a close and relatively low scoring game. I like the Bills defense as a general manner, and you know,
look the Bengals have issues on offense. Of course, they still haven't recovered from Jonah Williams injury. I don't know if Cordy Glenn is going to be back from the concussion. I don't expect them to have a giant offensive performance either, especially against the Bills defense. And again, Buffalo, for me, I went to school there, and it's not rocket science. It's a tough place to play, even when you're not
in the winter. You've got the Bills, the Sabers and Duff Swings, and that's pretty much all you've got in that city. The fans are going to be raucous. I think it's going to be tough for Cincinnati to generate much on offense. I don't think Buffalo has the offense to carry that over under really by themselves. So I see a close game here. If I were to pick the spread, I'd probably go with the Bengals. But more than the spread, I like the under here at forty four.
Yeah, it's scary. I kind of like the side a little bit too. But I'm on the same wavelength with you with regards to the under. I mean, you know, when you look at what happened last week, you know. And I got to see this first hand with Kyle Shanahan when he was the offensive cordator in Cleveland. He took a collection of bums and made a decent offense out of the wide receivers. The guy's just a brilliant play designer, a very good play caller. Brian Daboles not
that guy, you know. Last week the forty nine ers got a bunch of yards on screens, got some yards on mistackles. I would expect Cincinnati to play a little bit better, you know, in the back seven, play a little bit better with their safeties here in this one, because you don't have to worry about getting beat over the top by Josh Allen the way that you do with Jimmy Garoppolo or some of the other guys that
are out there. So I agree with you. I think Cincinnati can, you know, button batting down the hatches a little bit here. And like you said about the Bills, I mean also too for the Bills. I mean, if they're up in the second half of this game. And maybe this is part of the reason why I kind of like the Bengals a little bit. Buffalo at three and oh against New England at three and oh at New Era Field next week. There's gonna be a look ahead factor in the second half and in particular in
the fourth quarter. If the Bills have this game in hand.
That's the thing. It's not like this is a three point spread. I mean that's six points. It opened I think closer to four when it first hit four or four and a half. That might be a different story. Although you know, I'm not going to be surprised if the Bengals come away here with a win. I'm not going to predict that necessarily, but six points that's a pretty big margin right there. And if you think you know that basically for the reasons that you said, I don't.
I certainly don't see the Bills running away with this game at all. And I certainly could see them basically looking at what happened last week win Cincinnati and thinking, you know what, we're gonna be able to take care business at home. We've got the Pats coming up, maybe we can make a stand there and looking past them. And I agree with that, and really, for me, just last week, you know, I agree Shanahan and he had a couple of brilliant plays, but really the tackling was
so abysmal, and they're not that bad. That was just a crazy sort of it struck me as a one off because they really were not that bad against Seattle. So I do expect a close game here. I think we both kind of are on the same wavelength, and I'm gonna go with the under. So who's your second pick here?
Yeah, and one other quick point. You know, Buffalo great defense, great pass defense. You know, we know the Bengals are probably gonna throw a lot, but also you know, it seemed like reading some of the reports that were out there, Zach Taylor really wanted to get Joe Mixon more involved this week. I think that's kind of part of the thing that he's looking to do when we all know that there's a lot of hatred against running the football in the NFL these days, not throwing the ball, you're
gonna move the ball in short or chunks. So that kind of plays into Buffalo's hands a little bit, you know, with regards to the under here in this one, as well as far as my next pick goes, Boy, this one's ugly, but you know what, I gotta look at the Raiders. I mean, they're plus nine and a half out there now on the consensus odds again eight and a half in the Super Contest, So not losing any
key value or anything like that. Still would like to get the best line possible, But this was one that I isolated pretty quickly because you know, again you talk about the NFL, you talk about trying to get margin. Minnesota's gonna run the football, and if they run it down Oakland's rout and run for two hundred and twenty five two hundred and fifty yards, then sure I could see a path to them covering this number. But one thing that's really impressed me about Oakland so far this year.
They played very well in the first half against Denver, and they played very well in the first quarter against Kansas City before Patrick Mahomes just took over the game. And that's gonna happen. I mean, Mahomes is gonna do that to much better teams than Oakland. But Oakland tried to change up a lot on defense last week. There were a lot of miscommunications, guys kind of running free on slant routes. Mahomes made some throws over the top
where he got some long touchdown passes. Oakland's gonna play a simplified base defense here this week. Paul Gunther familiar with Mike Zimmer from their time together in Cincinnati. He'll have an idea of what the Vikings want to do. They're gonna sell out against the run. They'll make Kirk Cousins beat them. And I really haven't seen much from Kirk Cousins that would suggest that he was gonna go
out there and cover almost a double digit numbers. So for Oakland, look, they don't play a home game again until November third, And this is an angle I've looked at before in the NBA, in the NHL, the first game of a road trip, you get a team's best effort. They want to set the road trip off on the right foot. They're as fresh as they're going to be. I could get a really good effort from Oakland here
this week. I'm not so sure about Minnesota coming off of last week's loss, and in a divisional sandwich with Chicago.
On deck, that's you make a lot of really interesting points. And you know the thing about the Raiders defense last week is that it wasn't just that they played well in the first quarter and then Mahomes put up twenty eight points in the second quarter. Whi's true, but he didn't put up anything other than that. It was legitimately one quarter. For three quarters, they generally held the Chiefs in check. Now I know, of course, it's a little bit different. The Chiefs were ahead, so it's not exactly
the same thing. But they have been much better, in my opinion, than what I expected. Now, this line, originally I think was close. It might have opened at seven and a half, and at that point I felt a little more comfortable with the Vikings. I don't think I feel comfortable either way on this game. I mean I have not. Part of me really expects this, and we'll talk about that. I'll mention them later in the player prop. I expect it to be a little bit more of
a get right game for the Vikings. I think that they have just looked a little bit out of sorts. He had the first game where they won, but you know, Kirk Cousins through ten passes. Then last week against the Packers they got way behind. You know, the passing game
has obviously not been working. Cousins hasn't looked good really since he's been with the Vikings, but certainly not yet so I do see a scenario where they try to essentially open it up a little bit and put on more points rather than lean on the run, which I think they're going to do generally throughout the season. But at nine and a half, that's a big number. But for me, I don't know, it was a little scary
to kind of take it. Nine and a half makes me lean towards the Raiders, But for me, I was a little worried about picking them.
No, that's completely understandable. I mean, you know, the Raider is not exactly a team that's gained a whole lot of trust over the last few years. The thing of it for me is they're going to be prepared. You know, I think what we've seen so far from John Gruden. You know, obviously he doesn't get along with Mike Mayock, and you know, he's kind of put his own stamp on the personnel for this team. But they're usually prepared as long as they're not in a spot where they're
gonna quit or something like that. The team is ready to go. Now if they get out talented, and that's very possible here against Minnesota, that's one thing. But I think that they're going to be ready to go here, and to me, I think when you're a big underdog and underdog of this magnitude, that's half the battle to be focused, to be engaged, to be ready to go out there and give a good performance. So Minnesota certainly can run it up and they can salt the game
away with the running game if they want to. But I think Oakland's gonna be in a decent spot here. And again, like I said, I mean, you've got some injuries here. Once again, injuries in play with every game, some injuries in the back seven for Minnesota. Anthony bar did in practice on Thursday. They've got some other guys.
Mackenzie Alexander is not gonna play, so maybe Oakland could take advantage of that through the air, and especially in the middle of the field with how they've been using the tight end so much.
Yeah, I mean, you make a lot of go points. It's not something that I'm running away from. And if I was forced to pick one side, I would go with the Raiders. But for now, it's really because the spread has gotten much higher than I expected. Again, I don't know what you mentioned in the Super contest. It might be eight I think, but at nine and a half.
That's something that's a little too dicey for me to even think about relying on the Vikings, even though I could see a scenario where they really run it up switching gears to my second pick. I don't know if you're going to be too happy with it, because you are a Cleveland fan, if I remember.
Correctly, right, yes, sir?
All right, well, I am taking the Rams laying three in Cleveland. Now this is a really, really, really public play, which makes me nervous because really you always I never want to be on that side. And it's something like eighty five percent of the bets and the money is coming in on the Rams. I really am surprised that this is where the numbers came. Now, I'm a Jets fan. I watched Monday Night pretty closely. If anything, I downgraded
them after that game. I mean, the offense, for whatever reason, looks really really stagnant. The late eighty nine yard slant to Beckham makes the offensive totals look better than they were, but they had very little going on offensively for most of that game. And that is against the Jets team that was missing both Quinn Williams and CJ. Mosley and has really nothing in their secondary other than Jamal Adams. Mayfield's already been sacked eight times, and the Browns now
have lost David Djoku. I get it, he was not particularly involved, but he is another weapon that teams at least needed to account for him. As for the other side of the balls, for their defense, look, Miles Garrett is a beast, but the Jets were playing their second and then third string quarterbacks and they have an absolutely terrible offensive line. I know the Rams offensive line is not what it was last year, and they've already got some backups in already. They may be missing Austin Blythe
in this game, so it's possible. But I'm not overly excited about the Browns defense just because they had a good performance against the Jets. Now, as for the ram I get it, they have not looked like world beaders. It's been a long time since Jared Goff really showed what he can do. I think it might be ten straight games that he's been or maybe once in the last ten games where he's been over three hundred yards
and that's it. And they barely snuck by a Carolina team with a Cam Newton struggling, and they barely, not barely, but they were close with the Saints and of course got lucky with the fact that that touchdown was not counted, and then they went by, you know, a Teddy Bridgewater led team. So I just in the end, I think they are a better team here. I like a lot of the Browns pieces on defense. I like Denzel Ward,
and I like Greedy Williams. But you know, Golf has four weapons on any given play that he can easily go through. They still have a strong defense with Aaron Donald, who it sounds like the back injury is not a big deal. They still have the strong corners with Talib and Peters. And again, Cleveland's coming off a short week here in a game where Baker Mayfield was still taking
hits at the very end of a blowout game. I know we've got the whole West Coast team traveling east, but I just do not see it right now with the Browns. I don't know how they're going to long term, but right now I am not at all confident in them giving the Rams here laying three in Cleveland.
Yeah, Cleveland fan, but you know what I mean, you have no fandom when it comes to your money. So I'm on the same side here with you as the Rams. I mean, look, you know, as you mentioned, Baker Mayfield just hasn't looked very good and he's had some time to throw, you know, I mean the pocket has collapsed a few times, but he's also been holding the ball way too long underthrowing guys. I mean, Odell made two big plays in that game against the Jets, and that
was a pretty big majority of their offense. So I agree with you about the Browns offense, But what I want to focus on, since you covered most of it, is the defense. You know. Yeah, you've got Miles Garrett, You've got Olivia Olivia Vernon on the other side, but in this game, you're not gonna have Christian Kirksey for the Browns. And to me, I know you said before we started recording here that you're a Jets fan. You know,
seej Moseley being out last week really hurt that defense. Yeah, I think Christian Kirksey being out for the Browns really hurts their defense as well. They're young in the secondary with Greedy Williams and Denzel war and then now it was like probably Mack Wilson on then Taki Taki, the kid out of what is it Utah? You know, I think those guys are gonna be playing with Joe Schobert and Showbert's a great run stopper, he's not a good
pass coverage linebacker. Sean McVay is going to be able to attack that second level of the Browns defense here, and he's gonna be able to do it with quick throws. He's got the receivers to do it. And what is the best defense against a good pass rush to get the ball out quickly. I think Sean McVay has got a great game plan coming up this week. The Browns
defense is gonna miss Kurtsey badly. And also, if this becomes any kind of shootout, and I don't think it will spoiler alert, but Cleveland can't score with the Rams. They just can't do it at this point in time, with how disjointed that offense looks. So I'm on the same side as you here. I like the Rams as
much as it pains me to say that. I will say if it goes back up to three and a half, which is certainly a possibility here, all the threes out there with extra juice, I'd like it less, you know, just because crazy things can't happen in these primetime games. But the best way I can put it is this, this is a big boy game for Cleveland, for a team that has not been in big boy games for a very long time. The spotlight is on the Rams,
who know they haven't played well. This almost feels like the get right game that you referenced for Minnesota, but for the Rams.
In my opinion, yeah, I something about Cleveland just does not look right right now. Whatever it is, they are not in sync. They did not look good against the Titans in the first game. They I don't care what the final score was. They did not look good against the Jets. That should have been you know, an easy easy at least on offense. They really should have been able to put up points much, you know, more easily
than they did. The Jets defense again without Moseley, without Quinn Williams, they just they did not have anything that should have been able to stop them. And Mayfield just the wrong. You nailed it with him holding the ball way too long. I just feel like, in the end, it worries me that the public is so on this and it feels to me like you know, I would think that the it would be moving a little higher at this point the spread, but in the end, it's
staying three. For now, I'm gonna take it at three. And I feel kind of comfortable with that, even though it's something about it, especially because the public's all in on it feels a little off. So I'm gonna stick with them at three. Who's your third pick here?
Yeah, this one, This line kind of got away from me a little bit here today since I mentioned the three plays, but I'll stick with it here for continuity purposes. Talking more about this Rams in Cleveland game. I mean, look, I like the under in this game. You know, I think you've got two defensive lines that can get after the quarterback. And as much as I think McVeigh plans for you know, quick out slants, hot routes, all that kind of thing to slow down Miles Garrett and Vernon,
I mean they're still gonna get there. You know, Miles Garrett is a freak of nature. He's gonna get there no matter what you try to do, no matter what kind of help you put over there, He's gonna find a way to disrupt Jared Goff And we all know about the Jared Goff home road splits. He's not good on the road, and maybe that's one of the reasons you and I do have a little bit of hesitation about the Rams minus three, But man, I don't see it from Baker. I just don't. And I know the
Rams last year weren't a very good defense. But Wade Phillips is going to confuse this kid. He's gonna give him a lot of different coverages to look at. Maybe OBJ and Jarvis get free, but they're missing in Djoku. Chubb doesn't seem to have that same burst early on in the year that he had last season. The offensive line has been not good at run blocking, and you know, they've done as good as they can pass blocking, but
Baker's kind of screwed the pooch on that. I don't see the Browns doing a whole lot offensively in this game, and I don't know how much the Rams will do either, enough to cover the number, I think, but still I like the under here in this one. I believe it's forty seven and a half forty eight now, but there were some fifties earlier on in the week.
Yeah, even at forty seven and a half, which is where the consensus line is. I'm with you. I again, it's it's really just whatever is going on. I mean, the fact that they put up I think it was twenty three points in the end against the Jets again a really late slant against an exhausted Jets defense that you know, Odell took that the house. They were settling for field goal. They just were not moving the ball
particularly well. The offense seems disjointed, and the Rams, I mean, they're no longer this really crazy high powered offense, at least they haven't been for a while. They've still got tons of weapons, but on the road, I don't really expect them to drop a thirty spot necessarily or anything like that. So I am entirely with you on that one. I do like the under at forty seven and a half for my third pick. I don't know if we're going to be an agreement here, buddy, because I feel
a little nervous about it. But I just in the end, when I keep breaking it down, I keep coming back to it, and that's actually the Saints getting four in Seattle. So the public, I'm going against the public, which always makes me feel a little bit better. I think in the end, I just don't think Seattle is all that good. They've won their two games by a combined three points, which includes a home win against a poor and banged up Bengals team. They barely squeak by Mason Rudolph. And look,
we know what their offense is at this point. You know, they have Wilson, they have a couple of playmakers, but it's still Brian Schottneimer running the offense. They still want to lean on this conservative run. First game. I think they will be extra conservative right now, trying to win the game with their defense. And their defense is solid, right They've still got Bobby Wagner, They've got kJ Wright,
they obviously traded for Jadeveon Clowney. They should get Ziggy ansa back, which is going to make me a little worrisome. But the thing about it is the Seahawks basically have done no surprises through their first two games. On defense, They're just running a base defense throughout there, leaving their linebackers out there. They want to be able to stop the run, and they have so far, but they're not
really stopping the pass. I mean, we saw Andy Dalton throw for over four hundred yards in the first game. Mason Rudolph moved the ball well, and they're struggling against defending pass catching running backs, which is exactly what Alvin Kamara does. They're averaging nearly seven yards per target. That's going to be a problem. And really, above all, for me, the Seahawks are basically saying, this is our defense. This gives us the best chance to win. We're leaving our
linebackers out there. This is what we're going to be doing. And if you give Sean Payton a week to prepare for that, even with Teddy Bridgewater, even with Taysom Hill or whatever he's gonna do, I feel like they're gonna find ways to exploit that. Now, I'm not crazy bullish on the Saints. Generally speaking, they're probably gonna be without Trey Kuan Smith. They've got problems on their offensive line, but I think Sean Payton is gonna figure out a
way to attack them. Even with Teddy Bridgewater, who is a competent quarterback, the Saints overall have a strong defense. I think it's gonna be a close game. I see it as more like a three point game one way or another. So for me, I'm gonna take the four points, but I'll be interested to hear whether or not you agree.
Yeah, this is a tough one for me. I know we're gonna talk about games who would avoid, and this was one of them that was in consideration for me. I don't know what Teddy Bridgewater is gonna look like here, And again, what happens a lot of times the NFL is such a you know, it's all about immediate reaction. It's all about, you know, overreaction when it comes to things from a betting standpoint, Yeah, Bridgewater looked terrible last week.
But also, I mean, you're all franchised future Hall of Fame quarterback went out guy who really hasn't been hurt very much over the course of his career. You're not really expecting that over the course of the game if you're Bridgewater. But I feel better if he came in and played well. Yeah. Absolutely, But now you've get a week full of practice. And not only that, New Orleans stayed on the West coast. You know, they didn't come
back home and then go back out there. They stayed on the West Coast, away from the local media, away from their families. So they've been one hundred and ten percent focused on this game and focused on putting Bridgewater in a position to succeed. Now whether or not he can do that, I don't really know. You know, that's something that we're gonna have to wait until the game to figure out. But I agree with you. You know, by and large, I mean Seattle not a team I had
very high hopes for. Was against them last week with Pittsburgh in the Super Contest, and of course Big Ben goes out. Russ was much better last week than I expected. They kind of put it in his hands a little bit more than usual. If they have to do that again this week, I don't know if lightning can strike twice. So if I had to play it, I agree with your position on the Saints. I just don't feel like I have to play it this week.
No, I understand, as we talked about, it's a rough slate. It is a really, really rough slate, and I'm not jumping for joy over this game. I feel much more confident in the Rams pick. But for this one, again, it's just something where I think it's a whole different story. And you basically pointed this out. If you have Bridgewater come in in the middle of a game where he's not preparing to start, they haven't game planned around him.
His strengths, surprise surprise, are different than what Drew breeses are, So I think with a week to prepare, I think they're gonna be able to devise a game plan that's gonna be able to do it. So in the end, look, I think the Seahawks, regardless of ending else, I think they're gonna look at this as probably something where they're not gonna try to be explosive. It's not gonna be like last week against the Steelers with Wilson really doing.
I think they're gonna play just sort of a strong game, lean on their defense a little bit, and I think in the end it's gonna be a close game within the four points either way. But I agree with you, I'm not overly confident in it, but it is one of the ones that I feel strongest about this week, which should tell you something about this week. As we said, all right, let's just quickly recap before we move on.
You've got the Lions plus six and a half over the Eagles, the Raiders plus nine and a half over the Vikings, and under forty seven and a half on the Browns against the Rams. I also like the Browns against the Rams, but I like the Rams laying three in that game. I also like the Saints getting four from the Seahawks and under forty four on the Bengals at the Bills. So we'll review those next week and
hopefully we'll we'll have some good picks here. Now, before we move on, I do want to tell you about one of our sponsors, BETMGM. BETMGM gives you one of the easiest and best ways to place a bet. If you are in the state of New Jersey, just search for and download the betmgm app on your phone or visit betmgm dot com, sign up for an account, and you can place a bet right from your home. Betmgm offers a ton of features that make sports betting even
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And although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the state of New Jersey to place the sports bet. Visit betmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, buddy, let's move on to our next segment, which I have called It's a trap where we list the game that we are both avoiding. Now, do you mind if I go first on this one? Just because I don't want
you stealing it? This is like the one game that I'm really desperate to avoid.
You cool with that, absolutely go ahead?
All right for me? It is you're right, I can do what I want. Why I'm even ask for permission? It's the Bucks and the Giants. I believe the line is Bucks laying six and a half. Now. I like the Bucks actually as a team. I think their defense is stronger than most people realize, and I would have liked them probably at minus six and a half against Eli Manning, and realistically, I think their odds probably improve
a little bit. With Daniel Jones, as Rufus Peabody and I talked about on Monday, but there's just too much of an unknown factor here for me to really want to get involved with it. Jones looked great in the preseason, I don't really know how much of that, if any,
will be on display during the regular season. And with someone like Teddy Bridgewater who we just talked about, and a coach like Sean Payton, I feel much more comfortable as to what I'm going to be able to expect when I see them in action with this one, though I'm personally staying away. I don't know how you feel about it.
I'm actually you know, I mentioned both of us being in the Super Contest and it's really hard because, as you and I said, this is kind of like having bye weeks where you just kind of have to cross games off the list. I actually like the Giants in this one, so this is one that I do kind of have a little bit of an opinion on. I think their defense is better than they've played. I think Kellen Moore in that offense with Dak Prescott, they're gonna blitz a lot of teams here this year like they
did to the Giants. And then also, I mean, yeah, you lost to Buffalo, but you know, Buffalo is a pretty good team. I think I don't think people are giving Buffalo enough credit market wide for what they've been able to do here in the first two games. So
I actually like the Giants a little bit. And maybe it's more of a fade of that Bucks offense and Jamis Winston in particular, because I do agree with you Bruce arians is doing work with that defense, and I think that's what we kind of all expected.
Yeah, I mean, look, Todd Bowles, whatever he's doing over there, is really working with him. I mean, look, you might be right about the Giants defense. I mean they allowed twenty eight points, you know, to the Bills. They just I don't see them. They don't have a pass rush. Really, I don't like their secondary outside of you know, Jenoris Jenkins. It just it strikes me as something where I don't really know whether or not they're going to be able to keep it close. And for me, it's just I
don't really know what to look at with Jones. I know, I think you know a lot of sharp beetters are more in on them. I don't know. Also, how you if you changed your view on it with then with Eli Manning, did you like the game before Jones took over.
No, I wouldn't have looked at it with you. I think Jones can make throws that Eli can't at this stage of his career, and you know, maybe help that defense out a little bit. I mean that's part of it too, is you know, if you've got a bad offense or a very inefficient offense at that it exposes a bad defense in a hurry, especially in the NFL. So I think Jones can make some of those throws, and also too, depending on the game plan they come up with. Saquon Barkley is the best player on the field,
and I know Mike Evans is out there for Tampa Bay. Well, Barkley is the best player on the field. He's gonna get more touches now with the Daniel Jones era, So I think that helps the Giants too.
Yeah, I mean it should be interesting. I think for me, I just I don't ever read on Jones. I have no idea what he's going to look like here in his first game. I know he looked great in the preseason, but it's just something where something like this, when you have these unknown in these variables, I like to stay away. I will note though, that I am going to have some action on the game because Points Bett is offering boosted odds for Daniel Jones to throw a touchdown pass
on Sunday. So the odds for Jones to throw a touchdown pass if you didn't have the boost of odds, are currently at minus three thirty five, which makes sense you assume that he's probably going to throw at least one touchdown pass. But with the boosted odds that points Bet is offering, it's even money. I mean that that's nuts. The odds that he's gonna throw at least one touchdown pass are really really strong, and with the promotion. You
just get even money on that bet. If you want more details in that promotion, just go to bettingpros dot com slash Jones. All Right, buddy, what's your pick to avoid?
My pick to avoid here, I'm gonna go one spot down by rotation number, and that's four seventy nine, four eighty Carolina and Arizona. I mean, look, there's a very good chance that Carolina is better this week without Cam Newton, just because of how Cam Newton looked dealing with that foot injury last week. But I don't know that for sure. I don't know what you get from Kyle Allen in
this game, and also too for Arizona. Look, I know they hung with Baltimore last last week and a lot of credit for that, but once again, you know they've played really the equivalent of one good quarter in that game on offense, and that's just not going to do it more often than not. I know they got that tie with the Lions in Week one. I don't know
where Kyler Murray's at here. I'd like to think that maybe Cliff Kingsbury improves this team as we go along, but also i'd like to think they he'd be smart enough not to kick field goals inside the five. But since he keeps doing that, and since I've been ranting about coaching all year long on my podcast, I don't know where this game ends up going. So this is a definite stay away for me.
I think I'm glad you brought that up because Arizona against Baltimore and the field goals last week was really, really maddening. I mean, I don't get it. I kind of assume that they're going to learn their lesson from that. But it is interesting because the point spread I think swung roughly five points. I think the Panthers were laying two and a half before the Newton injury. If I had that correct and now they're getting two and a half for the same reason, then I'm avoiding the Bucks Giants.
I agree. If you were out of curiosity, if you were forced to choose a side here, which way would you go?
If I was forced to take aside, I mean, I'd have to go with Arizona, because you know, Carolina's defense was so good a couple of years ago. Some of those guys are aging, some of those guys have moved on. Of course, Steve Wilkes was you know, defensive coordinator there for a year moved on. I would have to look Arizona here, just because I think there's maybe some more creativity to them that maybe Riverboat Ron can't really you know,
account for in the lead up to this game. Whereas for Carolina, it's gonna be a lot of Christian McCaffrey, and if you stop him, then you probably stop Carolina's offense.
Yeah, and this is why it's a good game to avoid, because if I'm forced to two's, I'm probably taking the Panthers just because in the end, Newton was so terrible last week against the Bucks. I had no faith in him whatsoever. So if you're basically looking at the spread to me, I get, of course, you know you're taking a replacement quarterback, so you know, theoretically it's a downgrade, and it probably isn't probably should be in the spread.
But if you're looking at the Panthers laying two and a half and now they're getting two and a half, to me, if anything, this might be an upgrade for them on offense. So I think the point about it, and that's really the reason I ask, because I kind of assume that if you're forced to two sides. Most people are probably gonna go with the Cardinals, right because they've at least shown something and it's more of a certainty.
And I would take the Panthers if I was forced to choose, which I'm not and I'm not going to And I think that that pretty much highlights why it's a great bet to probably avoid this weekend. Before we get to our last segment, I do want to tell you about another one of our sponsors, Sideboss Now. I've been telling you about their NFL Pro Pick Them contests since we started the show, and if you missed it, it's not too late. You can still join this week
and be eligible to win prizes throughout the season. But they have a lot more than just their NFL Pro Pick Them contest. They've also got player prop contest for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, and really, player props can be even more enjoyable than betting on games, honestly, And I'm a little bummed that they don't have any kicker props because I just take the under on whatever
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That's contest dotsideboss dot com. Promo code betting pros. I have time for top Prop where we list our top player prop for the week. I stole your thunder last time. You can go first right here.
No, it's all good man, not a problem. You know something I'm kind of looking at here, and this is a game that I've kind of waffled back and forth on. But Houston and the Chargers is a really interesting game in that four to twenty five window. Really all three of those games interesting for different reasons, but we don't
have all the injury considerations in this one. Kind of trying to figure out what the game flow may look like for this game, because you've got a Chargers secondary now they're what on their third safety with Derwin James out, and then last week their replacement gets hurt. I kind of feel like, if you're the Chargers, you want to keep the ball away from Deshaun Watson as much as
you possibly can here in this game. So I think Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson are both very busy, but I think Eckler is just a better fit here to run against that Houston defense, get outside the tackles, make JJ Watt go sideline to sideline, make Merciless run around as well. I think that that I'm kind of looking at Austin Eckler. I think that this player prop is gonna come out somewhere in the fourteen and a half to fifteen range on number of carries that he gets.
I guess could be a pretty heavy workload for him here in this game. I just think he's a little bit better of a fit against the Texans than Justin Jackson is, and mayhawk a couple of those carries as a result.
Yeah, I mean, Eckler, you had the fumble late in the game on the goal line when he stretched it unnecessarily, But he's the guy, I mean, and even though Jackson's running well, Eckler is certainly the quote unquote Bell cow Back. I mean he's seeding some touches, of course, but they love him. He's running well, They're going to lean on the run and try to control that game. I mean, I think it's that game strikes me as a pretty close game. I think it's the spread is Chargers laying three.
I expect it to be tight because of that. I expect also the Chargers to lean on the run a little bit, even heavier than they usually do. And so I definitely like that, especially considering without Hunter Henry. I mean, Mike Williams is there, but he's banged up. You know, he played through it last week. But they don't have that many passing options going on right now. So I think leaning on the run in what is sure to
be a close game is a really good pick. I'm going to take Adam Thielen to go over one hundred receiving yards and that's at minus one thirteen. Now, the fact that the vig is so bad at even over one hundred yards is kind of annoying, but there's a reason for it. I mean, it's been a bad start for the Vikings passing game. We talked about it when you were breaking down the Raiders Vikings game. But DeLand had seventy five yards last week against the tough Packers defense,
even when Kirk Cousin looked pretty terrible. And as I said, for the reasons I said before, it feels like a get right game to me for the Vikings, and especially with their pass offense, because their rushing ability has been great. Cook has been amazed. He's doing great in the zone blocking scheme that Kubiak has kind of let go there. And the Raiders' pass defense it's not great. The defense as a hole has played better than I expected, but they don't really have a strong pass rush. They don't
have great cornerbacks. But in particular, thelan's going to be in the slot. He's probably gonna be guarded by Lamarcush Joiner and he has not done well in coverage there. I think the Vikings know that that is probably the best way to exploit the Raiders to the extent they're going to take advantage of it through the air. Now I like Digs too. I think he's going to have
probably a pretty good game. But for me, I feel like this is a game where the Vikings when they do go through the air, they lean on THELAN pretty heavily given his matchup in the slot. So even at minus one thirteen, personally, I will take THELAN to top one hundred yards.
And that is my worry about that game. You know, Like I said, I think that John Gruden and Paul Gunthro are going to have the game plan of let's stop the run. Let's make Kirk Cousins beat us. If Kirk Cousins is gonna beat him, it's probably gonna be with THELAN. I know, Diggs is kind of the home run hitter, had that touchdown taken off the board last week, scored a touchdown, took his helmet off like a moron,
feeling probably is the guy here this week. So that is my worry about, you know, Oakland covering the number. But you know, hey, I mean again, it's one of those things where he's got to he's in a time share with Digs. Basically, if who gets those looks, who gets those targets? So hey, if he breaks a couple of big ones, gets over that century mark, then he's definitely in good shape. And unfortunately for me with Oakland, Oakland may be in bad shape.
If that's the case, well, I honestly think that he can get past one hundred yards pretty easily, even if it's not a blowout, because I think when they go in the end, I like both of them. I think that they will establish it. But in the end, I do think that when they go to the air here, Feeling's just got the better matchup in the slot, and I think that that's really going to be where their bread is buttered. So I think when they go there
they can get it. And I don't necessarily think that's incompatible with the vikings not covering the nine and a half points spread. I just think when they do go to the pass, that's really where they're going to go. But again, I like both, and I do think it's a little bit of a get right game for the passing game. Well that's gonna do it, my friend. Thanks again for joining me again for ever two time guests,
so you'll always have that honor. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
You can find me over at bangbook dot com. Every Monday through Friday, I host bang the Book Radio, which is anywhere from an hour to an hour and a half just talking about all things handicapping out there in the industry, got some very good guests that join me every week and on Fridays I record my Super Contest segment with you know, my reluctant five selections each week
in the NFL. So you can check that out over at Bang Thebook dot com and of course we're on all the major podcast sites as well.
Awesomebody, Well, I hope that you come back and you can be our first three time returning guests. Does sound good?
Sounds good to me. Appreciate it, awesomebody.
I want to remind everyone before we go about bet mgm, where you can place your first wager of up to five hundred dollars risk free on the bet mgm sports app and Sideboss, where you can play a ton of free weekly or daily free to play games and win prizes and cash of plenty. Don't forget about the boothst of odds on whether Daniel Jones will throw a touchdown pass. Just go to Bettingpros dot com slash Jones for more details.
Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early lines next week.