Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. Week one is pretty wild and as we do every year, we learned a ton mostly don't ever bet against the Chiefs because it's going to give you a sick feeling watching the game,
regardless of how it's going. Now, this is our Thursday show, so as we're gonna do every week, we'll talk about some of our best bets, either against the spread or over unders. We'll give you a bet to avoid, and then we're going to give you our favorite player prop bet for the week. And with me today to break it all down is Andrew Cayley, a senior publishing editor
at Covers. Andrew runs the gamut in terms of sports betting advice, including the NBA, MLB, PGA, and of course the NFL, and you can find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee, Andrew, how's it going, man?
It's going really well? Really excited to be here.
Am I the first person to pronounce your name correctly.
In this season? I believe?
So?
Yeah, well, that's good because I try. I'm like a stickler about pronunciation. So all right, I'll just pull the curtain back a little bit. I asked you like four times right before we got on you I did. I mean it's bad. By the way, Andrew's name is spelled c a l e y, So when you're at his Twitter and at covers underscore c A L E why. I like to pretend I'm smarter than I am. But in the end, I've got to give it up. I was ready for CALLI, but I like to clean it
up right before we go. All right, all right, are you ready? Are you ready to dive into week two?
I'm ready? All right.
As always, we're going to get started with pick six, where both Andrew and I are going to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread or on the over under. Now do you get that, Andrew? I mean it's picked six because we're making six. I would take credit for it, but it was actually made by our last guest Ian McMillan. I want to give him credit. But as always, I'm going to note at the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff
of the Thursday night game. So we are not going to be making any picks on the Panthers Bucks game. But if you want to see how I picked that game, you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to show you how I and basically every betting expert who makes picks on that site made their picks for every single game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market.
All right, Andrew, let's get it started. Who is your first pick?
My first pick is my favorite pick of the week, even though I just am looking at your consensus odds here and I see they've moved to minus three and a half as opposed to minus three. But there's a couple of threes out there, and that's the Titans this week as they host the Colts.
I really really.
Liked the Titans last week. They shocked a lot of people. They derailed that Brian Brown's hype trained pretty quickly. But one of the hardest things to do when betting football, especially early in the season, is not to overreact to things we've just seen. But that said, the Titans looked really good. They were balanced on offense, they were stout on defense, caused turnovers. It was just really in persons, impressive overall. And now there's no Andrew Luck for the Colts,
and he owned the Titans. But when Tennessee played the Colts without Andrew Luck, they went two to zero straight up and against the spread. In twenty seventeen, that's when Brissett was starting for one of those ailments Luck ailments. I forget which one exactly it was, but he was not playing and they did well in those games. I know the Colts offensive line and the defensive line and offensive line and defense are much better now, but I think that's not gonna be enough to cover the number
on the road. I think the Titans are going to sell out to stop Marlin mack here. He had a pretty big week one. But they've got a really solid secondary. So if they sell out to stop Mac, then they can rely on those guys on the back end to limit Persett and what he can do. And the key for the Titans on offense I think is gonna be Delaney Walker. He's fully healthy and it showed last week.
He hauled in two touchdowns, so I like that a lot of him a lot, and have him in a lot of DFS lineups this week, so I'm excited about that. And the Colts were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year when it came to defending ten ends, so I can see him having a big impact in this game. I like the Titans by minus three and a half now.
And you're okay with that half point move, then.
I like I did.
I saw that earlier when I was when I was looking doing some more research here that it moved.
I personally have a three.
It makes me a little uncomfortable, but but I'm still confident in saying the Titans, little Titans will win this by by at least four points.
Now.
One of the things that we do at bettingpros dot com is in taking the aggregate consensus odds, we show you the odds that are available in a bunch of in a bunch of sports books. So while three and a half is the aggregate line, FanDuel is still offering it at minus three, as is points bet. So in the end, you can shop around a little bit and get the best line you want. But you're saying regardless, you still you feel a little less comfortable, but you're
still good with it. You're still good with it at three and a half.
I'm still good with a three and a half. But if you can find the three out there, jump on it as soon as you can.
All right, Well, sixty five percent of experts. I don't want to. I don't want to get you upset. We're gonna start off on like a really fun you know, you and I are getting along, but sixty five percent of experts on this one are backing the colts with that's so you know we're gonna have to We're gonna have to see about that. That's obviously not always indicative necessarily.
Will mark it down.
We'll mark it down. Well, remember you and I'll talk after this, no problem. Well, look, last week I did all spreads because I just couldn't find enough over unders that I really liked. But one of my picks actually, and it works that it goes here right directly from yours, is I actually like the Titan and Cult game to come under forty four and a half. So I know both teams scored a lot last week. Of course I
don't really see that happening here. I mean, the Titans scored forty three points last week, but they had twelve at halftime, and then Mayfield through the three interceptions on consecutive drives in the second half. The Titans scored twenty one points in the fourth quarter and they had a pick six. So I kind of think that we can throw that out for the most part, and I don't now, And I really have never had much faith in the Tennessee offense. I'm not a buyer into Marcus Mariota. I
don't think they want to be an explosive offense right. Conversely, I do have faith in their defense. They had a great pass roster last week against the Browns, they had five sacks. The secondary is more than adequate. I have faith in Mike frabl I like GMPS. Then you look at the Colts. I preached a bit in the preseason that I didn't expect the Colts offense to drop off into the Abyss. I think Jacoby Brissett is more than
capable here. They have a great offensive line, They've got enough playmakers to be dangerous, But realistically, I don't think they're the type of offense that's going to be able to put up a ton of points consistently, even though they did get to twenty four last week against a
solid Chargers defense. Now, their defense struggled last week right against the Chargers, but they did sack Rivers four times, they had two takeaways, and the Browns were able to get a lot of pressure on Mariota they had four sacks as well. So look, this is a similar defense to last year. The Titans scored twenty seven points combined against the Colts in both matchups. I think it's going to be a tight, low scoring game, so I'm going
to take the under here for what it's worth. I checked just you know what I like to do, and I explained it last week is when I have a feeling about a game, I like to just check how the money is coming in on it, necessarily if there's any difference, right exactly now, I didn't really see any difference here with the smart money, but roughly ninety five percent of the money last time I checked was generally coming in on the under. Now that does far outweigh the
number of bets. It doesn't. It's not there are there are markers that you know for me, when I look at something, you can tell, right when it's when it's really sharp, I can't necessarily tell that this is what it is, but that the amount of money coming in does outweigh the number of bets that are coming in, although again it is on the under, so for me that that is at least a small signal that the under is popular by sharp betters. And again it's one
of these things. I think it's gonna be close, and realistically, I was a little nervous about this game. I get nervous on Division games, man. I mean, I get it, you know, but these teams know each other pretty well. Of course it's not Andrew Luck, but I do think it's gonna be hard fought, and I think it's gonna be defensive. So I three and a half or three that might have been one actually, which I could have listed as the one to avoid. I'm not gonna do
it right now because it's up there. Yeah, I get it, you know, I'm just trying to, you know, get your going over here.
But oh it's good. It's you're doing a good job.
Yeah. Are you mad?
Now?
Are you ready to go? And just kind of be like it's gonna come. It's gonna be a sixty point game. What are you talking about?
It's funny because I didn't I specifically didn't put Mariota in my notes because he's very polarizing, and you had to go talk about Mariota.
I I am a.
Cornerback of a team that I'm saying is gonna come under. It's hard to avoid him.
He's I have been a Mariota apologist for a long time, so I was really excited to see his I know, as a lot of those yards came from that one pretty incredible Henry run last week or catch and run. But I still hold a little hope that he's not going to be a bust.
Well. Look, I think the one thing that we can all agree at least about Mariota is he doesn't have mono nucleosis and is going to be out for three weeks. Like the quarterback of my favorite team, Sam Barl of the Jets. It's a rough exist. I just man, it's not my fault. I'm from Queen's Jets and Matt's I'm going to live and die with them. So I'm a pretty miserable human being as you might imagine. All right, let's get to your second pick. What do you got for me.
My second pick here is the Chiefs and Raiders over fifty three and a half. You just said he didn't do any totals this week, so I'm glad we get to jump into them.
Now. What can I say? I don't know. It's Anon you mentioned it. The Chiefs.
The Chiefs are gonna give people headaches of the same Chiefs as they were last year. They lost Tyreek Hill in the second series. I think it was they still put up a forty burger on the Jags d and if the Jags are gonna give up forty points, what are the Raiders gonna do.
I'm not worried about Hill being out at all.
Sam Waukins obviously stepped up big last week, incredible game, and they still have Travis Kelcey. Of course, for me, Tyreek Hill is more like a luxury than a necessity for the Chiefs. He's great to have, sure, but this offense is all about Mahomes and he's the type of guy who makes everyone around him better. I mean, look at Damian Williams. He was an afterthought prior to this season for the most part, like and now he's a guy you have to have in all of your fantasy
lineups like He's just that's how good Mahomes is. As for the Raiders with ab Gone, Last Gone, they looked focused on Monday Night and it was David Carr was very efficient, which is a little shocking. He was against a good Broncos D. They didn't play well, obviously, but the key for the Raiders for me is if that O line can give cart time and can keep him upright, he's gonna hit receivers and I think he's gonna be able to do that this week against the Chiefs.
He's getting some.
Help now too with Josh Jacobs in the backfield and they're going against the Chiefs D. That allowed a rookie in Gardner Minshew, who I'm a big fan of.
By the way, go was are you actually? Are you the one? You're one?
I love Gardner Minshew.
I love I don't know if it's just like the cult following or whatever, but I honestly don't think he's that much of a drop off from Nick Foles. I know that might be that might be sacrileged to some people in Philly, but I just he's he's a talented passer and he went twenty two for twenty five for tw hundred and seventy five yards and two scores.
It is NFL debut, Come you off the bench, Like.
I get it. And it's hard to know whether or not, but I think the point essentially that you're making really is it speaks volumes as to the Chiefs defense.
Or the lack of chief the lack of defense.
Yeah, and I think that, Look, this is the highest over under of the week, I mean, higher than the Rams and the Saints. Okay, so which I also like. By the way, you like the over on that one too. I'm not gonna hold you as one of your three, but that was one one that you'd like to as well. All right, all right, well, I look this is this is I don't think you're going out on a limb here.
I agree. I mean, the thing about the Chiefs is that it's just we're I agree, he'll I mean, he adds something, of course, without it, very talent, without a doubt, without that, he's a great receiver. But I don't think that it's going to have that much of an impact on how much they're going to be able to score, as they showed last week where he missed the majority of the game, and Travis Kelsey wasn't even involved last week, so they can do it in a number of ways.
And the Raiders looked kind of competent on right. Absolutely very strange, not expecting. I mean, betters are are totally agreeing with you here. The vast majority of the money is on the over.
It's a bit of a it's a bit of a square play. I would say it's a square play, but I don't. I think winning money money.
You don't apologize. You don't apologize for anything. You're like, well, I don't know, buddy, you take it to the bank if you've got one. I agree with you. I agree with you here totally. I'm gonna I'm gonna bring back now into being you know, on the same page. I totally agree with you on this one. I do think
it's going to go over. I don't think I would ever bet under on a Chiefs gal like, I don't know what line they'd have to set because it's such an uncomfortable feeling whenever Mahomes is there.
You know, I remember talking about it last year when they were supposed to play that game in Mexico City, and we were just talking around the office wondering what they were going to set the lineup, and we would just figured it'd have to be almost seventy and it still might not be enough.
It's crazy. It's crazy what the Chiefs are doing.
I know. And there again because the Raiders looked relatively competent on offense. I mean, I would not be concerned here, Landil Overner. So over fifty three and a half, that's a good one. All right, I'll get to my next one, and that I'm going to take the bills laying one and a half to the Giants. So let's start here. Let's start here with the Giants. Okay, the Giants are a terrible football team. My analysis of this game has now concluded, Andrews.
So there's nothing to do with your gensation whatsoever.
I mean, Okay, it's the Giants defense is really what is truly terrible here. Okay, Janora Shenkins, he's still solid. Okay, I'll give him that, But he is the only remotely reliable cornerback on that entire roster right now. They blew a ton of coverages against Dallas last week. They have absolutely no pass rush. They hit Prescott twice last week, even though they blitzed about forty percent of the time.
I don't think they have any real ability to stop a cohesive offense in my opinion all right now, whether the Bills have a cohesive offense, that's a fair question, and it's why the spread is at one and a half. But I watched the Bills Jets game closely last week. As I told you, I'm a Jets fan, and even though it was partly because the Jets were without CJ. Moseley in the second half, I think the Bills figured a few things out, which is why I think they
were able to move the ball better. I expect Devin Singletary to have a much bigger role here, regardless of if Frank Orr gets the start. I love John Brown, who looks healthy and strong. Josh Allen has a great rushing ability. I think he sort of calmed down. I know he's still inaccurate, but he kind of got it on there. I mean, he's never going to be the
most accurate guy, but he got it under control. I think the Bills are going to be able to put up points here and I'm really not confident that the Giants will do much. And that's particularly with Sterling Shepard, who is still in the concussion protocol. As of today, he miss practice. I believe he's still in the concussion protocol at least miss practice, so he may miss this game.
I like the Bills defense. They had four sacks last week, they had five quarterback hits, nine tackles for a loss, and we know about Tredevius White being one of the better quarterbacks in the league. I think they can probably put Jordan Poyer on Evan Ingram. I don't expect to blow it here, okay, but one and a half is completely irrelevant. I talked about it on Monday about you know, the switch. If it was the Giants one and a half, it would essentially be the same thing because you're under
those key numbers. It really doesn't make a difference. I do expect the Bills to win here, so I am going to take them laying a point and a half.
You're not worried at all about how they weren't able to run the ball very well or they were able to stuff Dallas's run game of the week before. I mean that does that concern you at all? Only two nine six yards percarry last week?
Are you asking me if I'm worried about the Giants defense. Is that what you're asking?
I mean, I just I'm just Devil's advocate. I like it.
I like you. I like you trying to stare the pop man. It's okay. No, I in no way am I concerned about the Giants. The Giants rush. Look, Dallas did whatever they wanted, and I love Dallas. I mean, I think their offense is going to be really great right now with Kellen Moore sort of figuring things up.
It's an offense to watch.
Yeah, it really is. And but you know, I really think here, I again, I don't expect this to be a blowout, but you know, some of it is that it's like, well, it's the Bill's second road game in a row. It's a second road game, but it's in the same place, and it's in New York, and they're they're from Buffalo. I went to school in Buffalo. I grew up in the Dorphen. It's an easy trip. It's not a big deal. I really don't think that's going
to be a big deal. So for me picking against the Giants, at least at the early going, I'm happy to do that. So for me, Bill's laying one and a half. All right, let's get to your final pick. What do you got?
My final pick, which is funny you mentioned this is is the Cowboys at minus five and a half and which is now minus six.
It's been moving, by the way. It was four and a half when we first talked about it.
It was four and a half, and it was five and a half, and then it was down to five again earlier this morning, and now it's up to six. So I'm happy taking this line almost at anything under a touchdown, those between four and a half and five and a half six, that's almost It's kind of like that one and a half, like it doesn't matter. But this seems like this seems like an overreaction line to me.
The Cowboys should be more like a touchdown favorite. I think this is in response to Washington who played one good half of football.
Yeah, I mean, does that bother you at all? Because they did look surprisingly good? Or were they have twenty seven?
I think it was to me?
That was for me, it was all about the Eagles just being hyped up for their home opener and just like kind of coming out.
A little flat.
It was all about the Eagles for me. In that case, and I was I was a little shocked. I will say I was a little shocked that Keenum was able to throw as well as he was at points in that game. But they almost got shut out in the second half and he racked. Keenum racked up a lot of yards on that final drive, which meant nothing. So
I think there's something to be said there Cowboys. Like you said, the Cowboys looked good last week against the Giants, they I guess, I guess you say they limited Saquon as much as anyone can hope to sort of thing like.
I was that they blew him out so much that they couldn't run.
With them exactly though, But that's the thing.
They they were good enough that which is going to be a problem for Saquon for a long time. I think that he can't be a productive part of the game plan if they're down by so much all the time. So Dak look awesome. He's not still not worth forty million dollars a season, but he still looks awesome. I think this is another week for Zeke to kind of get his football legs back under them. Yeah, So, I just don't see that Washington has much of a chance here,
they're gonna put up some yards. Their defense, on the other hand, especially in the second half, looked like moving around in the secondary looked so slow. I couldn't I couldn't imagine how slow they looked.
It was. It was. It was a weird thing to watch. So I'm taking the Cowboys at anything less than a touchdown.
I am in one agreement with you. Anything less than touch on it, I'm fine with. I was really shocked the line when it opens seemed like it was begging people to take the Cowboys, which always makes me worry, right because they know something we don't. Okay, something's going on here that we don't. The line has moved, I don't. I think it was pretty well known that Darius Skys would be out for the game, regardless he's he's now out six to eight weeks. I mean, look, he looked.
He looked great for the first you know, several games of last year he did before tapering off. But either way, I agree, I don't buy this Redskins offense, at least what they showed in the beginning. I certainly don't buy the defense.
Although I took some good players they.
They I think I undersold them a little bit coming into the season. They they I took a deeper dive into them, and they are better than what I expect. A lot of it, honestly is that I think these skies the limit for the Cowboys is here. I am really all in on the offense. I mean, well, the Giants are terrible again, so what we'll have to really see. I'm just I don't want to draw too many conclusions from one game against like a really terrible defense. But
I do think that Kellen Moore seemed creative. They let Dak throw deeper than he usually does. I think Gallup is taking the next step. I do expect Dallas to win handle it. It always makes me a little nervous, as we talked about with the Titans Cults taking a divisional game, just because these teams know each other incredibly well. But I'm one hundred percent with you, as are the expert consensus. Seventy eight percent of betters are taking the Cowboys in this one at that spread, so I agree
with you. We're one percent on the same page. For my last pick, I am going to again take another over under which I'm I'm gonna have it here and I'm going to start with the under on the Chargers Lions. Now that's set at forty eight. Now, the spread here is the Chargers laying two and a half and it
has been there pretty much forever. And I did like that at first, But now that you've got Hunter Henry out sounds like Mike sounds like Mike will Diiams is going to miss the game as well, it's a little hard to really support the Chargers with it being below the key number. But the forty eight that feels to me like given the lines a little too much credit for what they were able to do against a really bad.
Arizona, really bad Arizona not.
Good in any way, shape or form. Now, look, I do I do like t. J. Hogginson a lot, and they do have It opens up a new dimension for Matthew Stafford and the Chargers, surprise, surprise, are dealing with a ton of injuries. They've got an injuries at cornerback right now. So you know, look, but in the end, what you know here is that matt Patricia wants to be the slow, control of the clock, running the ball type of team. He didn't he doesn't want to really
get away from that. If he doesn't have to. That type of offense is just not conducive to scoring a lot of points. And the Chargers, I mean, they put up thirty in overtime last year, but they're not really
all that explosive at this point. Austin Eckler looked great, but he is an obvious downgrade without Melvin Gordon, no Hunter, Henry As we just talked about, probably no Mike Williams, and honestly, with those two guys out Philip Rivers, after you get past Keenan Allen, he's going to be throwing the ball to Travis Benjamin, Dontrell Lindman and Sean Culkin. That is not an offense that is going to go nuts.
It's also a one o'clock game. Don't forget we know about West Coast teams that head east, I mean Detroit East, quote unquote what they are. If it is a one o'clock game, they're not usually on top of their game. So I see this as kind of a tighter and lower scoring game. I think the total should be closer to maybe forty six forty six and a half. So if I can lock it in at forty eight, I am more than happy to do that.
Kind of forgot Benjamin was still in the league. There.
Oh you can never forget Travis Benjamin. Man, if you play fantasy football, then you're gonna.
Know he's gonna be one random amazing catches. Oh some just incredible catches.
Yeah, he's got some some random he's gonna he's always possible to catch, uh, you know, a deep ball. But in the end, I don't think that's This game just screams to me as kind of a slug it out. Not really, you know, I don't see this as like a fifty point over under for me, So I'm happy to lock in the openator.
I'm sorry, I agree. I agreed with you.
I saw that number and I was like, early on this week, I was like, jeez, I'm probably gonna bet the Chargers. But just the way the way a week is gone, it is not good.
It has not been a good week for the Chargers. They deal with more injuries than any other team. I mean, it's really crazy. All right, let's just sum up here what we like for pick six, aptly named You like the Titans length three and a half. Now you like them at three, but you like them laying three and a half to the Colts. You like the Cowboys who are now laying six to the Redskins, I believe, and you like the Chiefs Raiders to go over fifty three and a half. Is that right?
That's correct?
All right? I like all those very good. As for me, I am going to go with the Chargers Lions under forty eight as I just said, the Titans Colts under forty four and a half, and I like the Bills laying one and a half to the Giants. So before we move on to our next segment, I want to tell you about one of the sponsors of today's show, bet MGM. Now you're listening to this podcast, so you obviously are interested in sports betting. That's great. You should be.
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next segment. And I'm not going to play the drop every time, so I'll just try to do my best Admiral ackbar impersonation. It's drop that doesn't really work. I'll come all thank you, I appreciate it. It's terrible. I gotta work on it. But you know, all right, So we're doing it as a trap, showing the one bet that stood out to each of us as something that we think needs to be avoided.
Once you kick us off, well, I think it's a little obvious, but it's got to be the Pats and Dolphins, right, Oh, goodness.
No, no, I'm not getting anywhere near it. I don't know, but go ahead give your reason all.
First of all, I think the line should be more between like fourteen and a half and seventeen.
By the way, the line is currently at eighteen and a half to eight.
I have seen it as high as twenty and it's.
And it oh what did it open end? By the way, I think when I looked at first, it was fourteen or.
Something and it jumped up right away. But this is once again one of these. The Pats looked amazing on Sunday night football against what was supposed to be a good Steelers team, and now might be adding a B to the mix.
I don't know.
We're not going to get into all that mess. But and the Dolphins looked well insert your whatever verb you'd like to use to describe how terrible they are here, Like.
Just how about we say the Giants' time.
Oh, that's it. That's a good one.
That's perfect, all right, like really awful, like already printing to a jersey's awful. But that said, it's one of the biggest Week two lines I can I can ever remember,
especially for a road a road team. The Pats have a history of struggling in that Miami heater, or they've had a few trips down there where they're all we're gassed, like, oh well, it's Miami whatever, and they're always seem to be good for one of those are the Pats done type of games where they look terrible and everyone's like, oh, it's finally over, and of course it's never over.
But another angle here is.
A little bit maybe, just maybe Belichick won't want to embarrass Florist too badly, but maybe he will.
I don't know, Patricia.
Patricia upset him with the Lions last year, so maybe he's grumbling a bit about that, or or the Pats could win by forty. So like, you literally have no idea what could happen here, So stay away, just stay away.
I completely a great I desperately want to take the Dolphins, and I want those never to keep going up. I don't know where it could get to where I would be okay with picking this game either. I just don't know. I mean, if you're saying you can have twenty one points, I would still hesitate. I mean I might hit the Dolphins, yeah at that point, but I would still hesitate because you just don't know. The Pats can win this game by thirty five points, I mean, very easily if they
decide to keep their foot on the gas. But I'm completely with you, and the line just keeps moving up and up and up, and I think when it's all said and done, I think it's going to be more like nineteen and a half when it comes close to I'm staying away. I'm staying away completely. Yeah, all right. For me, it's the Packers laying three to the Vikings. I mean, first off, I mentioned divisional games scare me. Two teams who know each other perhaps as well as
any two teams in the league. Both of them had an over under of exactly nine wins heading into the season. Both of them have really strong defenses, and I don't think that we learned enough about what the Minnesota offense is going to look like here last week. Dalvin Cook looked great, of course, but Cousins attempted ten passes. I mean, they didn't need to do very much. So I have a really hard time analyzing the impact of some of
the offseason changes like An and Gary Kubiak. Now, if I were to pick a winner here, I would probably pick the Packers. They're home, they're on extra rest. It's a little tough to go against Rogers, but overall it's gonna be a really hard fought game, and the spread is right at that key number of three. This is the type of game where I don't know about you. I just don't want any part of it.
I am in complete agreement. I'm staying away. I have no idea what's going to happen. These two teams always play close games, so I'm just Everyone was speaking about the Packers. Oh, the Packers have a defense. Now, well, you were playing Mitchell Trubisky.
We we didn't.
Don't speak ill of Mitch, all right, No, I think that, But I think the defense is legit. No I do.
I do.
I do think it's better. I will say I agree with you. I do think it's better, but I don't know how we can grade them. After Mitchell looked Mitchell, are you okay calling him Mitch?
Are we still?
I'm telling what you can do? Whatever you want. I I work close with I co host a fantasy football podcast on Sunday nights. He's a Bears fan. He calls him Mitch. He named his dog Mitch, so you can do whatever you want to do.
We were not allowed to use Mitch in my We also have a very very passionate Bears fan who just sits behind me in the office, So I'm not allowed to use Mitch, but I'll use it here.
So I'm excited.
Okay, yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, look, he did look terrible. They didn't have any preseason, which was terrible mistake in my humble opinion. So I agree it's tough to really draw too many conclusions. But we did know before the season coming in that the Packers had certainly added a lot on the defensive side of the ball. So I do think that this is just
going to be kind of a slugged out game. I think it's going to be really close and Division games generally speaking, absent the Cowboys and the Redskins, which I'm fine with and I'm with you on that one. I just kind of like to avoid. So before we finish up with our best prop bets, I want to tell you about another one of our sponsors, sideboss.
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Just go to contests dot sideboss dot com use promo code betting pros. That's contests dot sideboss dot com promo code betting Pros. All right, buddy, let's move to our final segment, Top Prop, where we will each list one prop available in the market that we like.
Start us off, well, I'm going to go with another game. I hinted that before the Saints and Rams, I think it's going to be a high scoring game, and I think that's going to mean good things for Robert Woods. He's had almost eight and a half targets per game last season, and he's continued to be Jered Goff's favorite weapon this year, with thirteen targets in Week one and he caught eight of them for seventy yards. But my favorite thing about Woods in this matchup is his consistency.
Like there's not many guys who just he just keeps turning out catch after catch after catch, and now he gets to go up against this Saint secretor that had all sorts of problems with the Texans last week. Obviously, the Rams don't have anyone like DeAndre Hopkins like that dude's special, but they have enough guys that are almost at that level, like Woods and Cup and even Brandon Cooks a little bit. I think multiple of these guys
could have big games here. The Saints also play much worse traditionally outdoors than they do inside the Dome, but I'd have no problem with taking Woods over his receiving yards over seventy and even if you can even take his over receptions, well, I expect that to hit the board around five and a half and he's I think
he's gonna go over that as well. There's just Marcus Ladmore is a good cornerback, but they he can't cover everybody, and even he had trouble with he was even having trouble last week there against Hopkins and McVay is very good at moving receivers around into the open spaces in the field to get guys to make place.
Out of curiosity? Is there anything that makes you feel better about Woods than you would let's say, at Cup or at Cooks at a similar you know over under for receiver Woods.
Like I said, with Woods, it's just his consistency. He's he's the guy. That's that's the security blanket, I think. And if there are troubles for golf, which he has shown that he can get a little rattled ever since the Super Bowl, and he doesn't make always the best decisions, but you always have that security blanket and Woods seems
to be that guy. And like I said, just the Saints, the Saints defense did not look very good on Monday nights, So I really like I like Woods in the lot in this matchup.
I really you have a hard time ever having a problem with anything with Woods going over receiving yard is one of my favorite receivers in the league. He is man, he is He's finally starting to get his due a little bit because they went to the Super Bowl, so people started knowing his name. But he's really one of the best receivers in the NFL. For me, I'm going to go with Sony Michelle to go over seventy five yards rushing, and we talked about the spread in that game.
I think we both expect the Patriots to win easily, as does anybody who has ever watched a football game. And look, Michelle did nothing last he did not against the Steilers. I fully admit that he gained just fourteen yards and Rex Burke had looked good, but look, he did look good, and it's a credited backfield. And I'm not sure how I feel about Michelle long term for the rest of the season if I'm going to be looking at these prop bets. But you know, he got
fifteen carries last week. He did nothing with him, but he got fifteen carries, and assuming that he gets that again, I'd honestly feel good about him going over the seventy five yard mark. If you just told me he's going to get those fifteen carries. The Dolphins allowed two hundred and sixty five five yards rushing to the Ravens, nearly six yards per carry. But the big thing is I
actually expect Michelle to get even more work. You know they're going to be ahead, and we don't you know whether or not they keep their foot on the gas or they take it off. They're probably going to be running in a fair amount. It's going to be hot. They're not going to want to have the guys get to extended generally. Michelle is from South Florida. It's probably something where they're going to want to give him a big game. So I could see him getting closer to
twenty carries. I think he's going to beat that seventy five yards by a pretty easy march. And again, this game's difficult to kind of look at and say we think this is what's going to happen, other than you could say that the Patriots are going to win by a massive amount. Whether that amount is going to be more than eighteen and a half points, we're not really sure, but we know they're going to win almost certainly. You
don't know anything almost certainly going to win. They're going to be playing from ahead, they're going to probably at some point want to just run the ball, and I think that they're just gonna let Michelle, who's from that area, probably have a little more run with it. So, oh, you're right, I'll take Michelle. Yeah, over seventy five.
A lot of fantasy stock and Sony Michelle this year, so I really hope you're right.
Yeah, I understand it was a rough, rough beginning, it was, but it was yeah, it's all right. And again, well you're avoiding the eighteen and a half bet, but I'm going to get in on that game by getting Michelle over seventy five. And again you like woods and it's around seventy five you're receiving, and you'd also take roughly over five and a half catches, right I would, Okay, wonderful, all right, buddy, Well that's going to do it for
today's show. Thank you Andrew for coming on. You were great. Can you remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.
You can find more from me at covers dot com, and you can find more for me personally at Twitter Covers Underscore.
Kaylee C. A. L.
E y, and I've got tons of football content, a lot of college football stuff too, if you like that sort of thing.
I'm a big college football junkie.
And MLB postseason coming up too, so really, really a lot of exciting stuff going on.
By the way, I'm I'm a huge baseball fan as well, so I encourage everyone, by the way to, you know, really look into sports betting when it comes to MLB.
It's a lot of fun stuff for baseball.
Like you mentioned five innings in one of the there, Yeah, I love.
I love five inning bets.
I love I love, I love first innings score bets like just I love breaking down pictures and matchups with starters.
Lots of fun one hundred percent. And it's every day. That's the best part of it. So you don't have to wait necessarily just till Thursday or Sunday or Monday. You can do it every day. Well that's great, Andrew, really thank you again for coming on. I hope we can do it again soon.
I can't wait, all right.
I want to remind everyone before we go about bet MGM, where you can place your first wager of up to five hundred dollars risk free on the bet MGM sports app and Sideboss where they offer a ton of contests in nearly every sport for you to hone your skills as a handicapper. Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early lines next week.
It's