Best NFL Week 17 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 39)

predictive Analytics over at the Action Network. Sean is renowned for his incredibly accurate projections for the NFL, which nearly always leads to him being at the top of the charts for the Fantasy pros Accuracy competition for Fantasy football, but he is also near the top of the charts for the Betting Pros Accuracy competition, so you're in good hands. You can find him on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. Sean. Thanks for coming on the show. How's it going?

analyze it like a normal week. We also can't possibly have all the necessary information as to who's going to start or sit, which would otherwise impact our analysis. So this week more than any other week, as I said, you'll want to wait for as much information as possible

before placing your best. But with that said, Sean, before we get into it, I do want to ask, because this week is so wonky and lines have moved so much already, have you been able to lock in any numbers early in the week before things kind of corrected themselves.

at the best number. So it's it's dropped down a three and a half. So I wouldn't recommend taking them anymore. But you know, that's how Week seventeen is is when you get announcement like that, it's usually why is to just take the line before it drops. So I have the Texans plus six and that's all I have at the moment. But the ones I'm gonna talk about today, I'll likely have. I'm just waiting to see more information before locking them in.

feel like teams in that situation generally play hard. Anyway. For me, I kind of did the same thing where when we were recording Monday, where we look ahead for the early lines, I said that I was going to hit the Bears who were getting seven. It was still available at some books. A lot of books pull it down during the game, but it was still available at some books if it looked like the Vikings were going to lose that game against Green Bay and essentially be

locked in. So I did. I hit it basically as soon as that game ended. When it was up, So I'm locked in at Chicago plus seven. The consensus line is now Chicago plus one. I don't feel quite as great about that, but I.

last week during the show our guest Sean Green. He hit on the Packers getting five and a half from the Vikings, the Eagles getting one and a half from the Cowboys, and Jamis Winston going over three hundred passing yards. His only non win was a push on the Bucks getting three from the Textan, So a pretty nice week for Sean. I hit on all three of my best bets, the Jets getting three from the Steelers, the Dolphins and the Bengals over forty six and a half, and the

Cardinals getting nine and a half from the Seahawks. My only miss was on Terry McLaurin going over one hundred receiving yards, which was at plus one seventy for today. As always, Sean and I are going to start with the pick six, where we each give our three best bets either against the spread or on the over. Under Sean, why don't you get us started here?

and second highest exposive pass play rate. So I think the Browns, you know, this will be a game where the Browns wont to end on a good note. They've struggled this year, so I could see Baker Chubb, O'Dell Beckham, and Jarvis LANs y'all having big games here. The Bengals. They should be without William Jackson this week. He was placed on an ir. He did a good job chuting down Odell just three games ago. They played, so he'll

be out. So that's going to prove the matchup. You know, Miles Garrett is obviously out for the Browns, but they they have Sheldon Richardson and Olivia Vernon are also questionable. So this is just a game that, you know, especially when it's meaningless, we could just see a sneaky shootout. The only reason I'm waiting to bet this is it opened at forty six. It's it's been hit pretty hard on the under. Sixty three percent of the money has come in on the under. I think that's due to

the weather report. It looks like there's a ninety percent chance of rain. I typically don't bet based on any weather report more than seventy two hours before the game, so in situations like this, the market can actually over correct and give some pretty good value. So if the weather report looks like it's going to clear up a bit, I'll come in hard on the over, or just when it seems like the line will reach its low point, which it could be right around forty three and a half.

Y No, I'm gonna come in the over, but this one I'm just waiting to see until I get the best number out of curiosity.

in a touchdown. On the other side of the ball. We all know that Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt can rack up yards, so in this matchup, even if it is pretty rainy, I think the you know, the rushing offense versus the rushing defense is a pretty good matchup, so I think that again, there's still sneaky play on the over even if the weather is pretty inclement. But we'll have time to kind of get a better forecast

closer to the game. So it looks like it is going to be bad that this number could drop to you know, forty one and a half or something like that. So I just think the market is typically get overcorrect in a matchup like this, so I'm just letting it do. It's you know, lower as much as possible. And they've actually passed through some key numbers when it comes to totals, a number like forty four, forty three, those are some of the key numbers I look for, so it's already

moved down to that range. So I think it's providing a ton of value now, but I just want to wait and see.

It's they've been really elite at stopping passes to the running backs too, And that's really a big deal when you have Vonta Freeman because that's what he's been doing a lot for most of the season. So you know, you know the Falcons are going to get Julio his fourteen hundred yards. He needs about eighty four yards. They are. Austin Hooper's there, but I'm not really sure what else they're gonna do offensively. I think Christian Blake is the

second wide receiver. I know he's out there. I've looked at him, but he's just not really getting targeted whatsoever. It's an outdoor game. The Falcons aren't quite a shit about doors, so I don't see this as a huge game for their offense. On the other side, it just kind of is what it is at this point for the Bucks offense. Prashad Perriman and Justin Watson, they're just not the same as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Even more than that, though, you really look at the Falcons defense,

I feel like it's really turned around. In the second half. Last year, they allowed twenty six point four points per game before the bye. This year, they were allowing more than thirty one points per game. Then coming out of the by you heard that there was this report that Dan Quinn was giving up the play calling duties on the defense. Since then, they're giving up only about eighteen points per game. And it's not like that's just an

easy schedule. They've played the Saints twice, for example, so part of it is that they got a little healthier too. But for whatever reason, they're playing well, they're playing hard. And I could also see Julio Jones kind of taking a seat here. He's always injured, he's you know, fighting through injury pretty much the whole year. Once against to his fourteen hundred yards, I could see him taking a

seat here. So for me, you know, the Bucks over has been a good play for the majority of the season. For me, I like the under here at forty eight.

the right direction. So now it's you know, forty eight forty seven and a half. So yeah, I would say the value shot now. But I do do like the under in this game. Yeah.

to you know, winning those games half the time. But you know, I've always said that they don't really have much of a home field advantage since moving here in la I actually lived down the street from the stadium, so I've known about this for a while that we don't really have the most loyal fans, so it's usually mostly just you know, teams rooting for the way fans

rooting for the way team. We saw Philip Rivers have to do a silent count last week at home, so they're fourteen and seven against the spread on the road since moving here. So I think people still overlook that quite a bit. Having said that, this isn't a game I'm going to take before the game starts, because as this game plays, I'll be looking at the Patriots Dolphins game.

So I think if the Patriots get off to you know, a fast start there and they get you know, a fourteen plus lead in that game, we could see the Chiefs pull back a little bit, potentially sit Patrick Mahomes. I'm not saying that's likely, but that's just a potential we have to look for. But also, you know, the Chargers in general typically get off to a slow start.

So Philip Rivers in his first ten pass attempts this year, he's had a three eight to seven touchdown interception ratio with the QB rating of seventy seven, and then the rest of the game it improves to eighteen touchdown to eleven picks ratio with the QB rating of ninety five point two. So he does improve as the game goes.

And this is a game where I'm expecting the in game line could move up to you know, say ten and a half to seventeen and a half, and they're they're more likely to do, you know, pull off the back door cover in that situation, So I'm not gonna take him plus nine to start when we get more value in game, and that's that's when where you'll want to monitor other games to see how a team like the Chiefs could start to pull back as the game goes on.

as you mentioned at the start of the game. Right now, it's certainly not a game that I'm looking It's bounced back and forth between eight and a half and nine and a half, kind of all week, but I like the in game plan that for my second one. I don't know if you're gonna like this one, Shohn, So I'm going to listen to what you have to say, but I'm going to take the Broncos laying three and a half here to the Raiders. Now, it's at three in a couple of books, so if you can get

it there, I much prefer it there. But even with the hook, I'll still take it. The Raiders. They have this legitimate chance they hit on this ridiculous thing where like ten things are going to fall their way and they somehow make the playoffs. But I don't think it's going to happen, and I think that if all else fails, it's not gonna happen, because I think the Raiders are going to lose this game, and they're going to lose it by more than three points. The Broncos are not

a bad football team. They could have easily been in the mix of a few things went their way earlier. Drew Locke is competent. They're leaning on Philip Lindsay more, Courtlin Suttons, one of the more talented wide receivers in the game. Their defense is solid. They're capable of putting up some points, especially against a team like the Raiders that are thirtieth and weighted defensive DVOA and offensively. The

Raiders are just they're down some key pieces. They did get Hunter Renfro back, but it's still unclear if Josh Jacobs is going to play. You had some minor leg procedure yesterday. Apparently it was just for an infection. I'm not sure about his availability, but he obviously has the shoulder injury. Trent Brown is now on IR Richie Incognito missed last week. I don't know if he's going to be back here. So their line has kind of been their strength all seasons. So without those guys it really

hurts them. And I get that it's a narrative, but Derek Carr does not play well in cold weather. I think his teams are two and eleven or two and twelve when the weather's under fifty degrees. I've lost count at this point. It's a high of thirty seven in Denver on Sunday. It's a tough place to play anyway. It's their second divisional game. The Broncos surely want to

go out on a high. Note, especially after losing to the Raiders in Week one, and even if the Raiders like just you know, from a very public perspective, the Raiders are like, well, they might have a chance of the playoffs and the Broncos don't. So you know, don't you want to favor that team? I think you know, more often than not, these teams come out that are out of it and they play really hard. Guys are

playing for jobs. I think they want to win after they got embarrassed a little bit in that opening game, so I think they're going to play hard here. So for me, I'm interested here because I have a feeling you might not agree, but I will take the Broncos length three and a half to the Raiders.

I think they will be a popular bet. Looks like about sixty five to seventy percent of the action has come in on them, and you know, the Broncos are still laying a key number like three and a half, So I think there is some sharp action on the Broncos. And like you said, I think the Broncos are very underrated. They if they make a couple splash landings in the offseason, they could be sort of the twenty nineteen Browns going

into next year. You know, hopefully it doesn't turn out that partly, but I think they have a lot of pieces in place. Drew Locke has impressed me. He's been a lot better than I thought he'd be. So this is another game where, yeah, I think they'll try to have a statement game heading in the next year. So even though they don't have much to play for, they don't have anything to play for for the playoffs, I think this will be a game where they come out more motivated than people think.

the power rating. Now, they did bring in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, which you know is exciting from a DFS perspective, but you know, I think they'll fill in a bit. But I think Travis Homer will be the starting running back. But ultimately this game is gonna come down on Russell Wilson's shoulders. So I like getting him at home here getting plus three and a half. I thought the Niners had probably closed maybe one and a half to two point favorite here, but three and a

half is just way too much on the road. Russell Wilson's only been a home underdog seven times in his career and he's six and one, so I just think, you know, getting him here at home is just a clutch game like this. This is definitely my play of the week. So while I'm avoiding most of the games because they're involving teams with nothing to play for, this is the This is the one game I'm treating straight up and feel pretty good about.

even pro Sise. So I think putting the game more in Russell Wilson's hands, even though the Niners are probably a little more exploitable on the ground, I think that's only a good thing for Seattle. And you know, the game against Arizona, I just feel like they were, you know, as much as they had the injuries, I feel like

they were just kind of looking past it. I feel like they were just looking at this game, and as much as it affected, you know, the seating that they'll get if they win the division, I think they were just looking at this game. So I like the call. I don't know if I if I can do it. Honestly, it's something where I think there is value, but I've had trouble pulling the trigger on it. And again I

agree with you. I expected it to be closer. I think it might have been two and a half at one point, but it's basically been sitting now at three and a half.

or two. With this matchup, both defenses are excellent, even with some Ravens resting here on the defensive side. But outside of that, It's really tough to see this getting even to this number of thirty sevens. The Steelers are so abysmal offensively. I mean, Duck Hodges would not be in there if Mason Rudolph were healthy. The alternative now is Paxton Lynch. James Connor misspractice again today. I'm sure he's going to miss this game. We don't know who's

going to be on the defense for the Ravens. I think the only thing we do know for sure is Brandon Williams is not going to play. That obviously hurts the run defense. But again, if it's Benny Snell leading the way, the Ravens can't possibly fear Hodges. It's not like I expect them to be able to run all over the Ravens. More importantly, we have talked about this a couple of times on this podcast before. John Harbaugh does not like to lose. He crushes in the preseason.

He does not want to lose this game to the Steelers, maybe let them into the playoffs. He wants to win. So whoever is out there, he is going to play to win the game. The Steelers have an outstanding all around defense, and we know there's no Mark Ingram, there's no Lamar Jackson. I'm sure there are going to be a couple of other offensive starters who are going to sit. RG three is probably going to run the exact same type of offense, which means there's going to be a

lot on the ground. It's going to eat up the clock, probably try to avoid turnovers. It's hard to judge these games when you have a lot of backups in. But I mean, the totals for the Steelers last seven games is twenty nine, twenty eight, twenty six, thirty three, forty twenty seven and twenty six. It's not all that much rocket science. I think Tomlin is going to try to keep Hodges from losing the game. He'll probably play conservative,

try to win it with his defense. So even at thirty seven, which is an abysmally low total, I'm gonna still ride with it and take the under thirty seven. I like it, Okay, I'll take it. That's all you gotta say. I will take it. All right, let's recap here, Sean, you're going to take the Bengals on the Browns over forty three and a half. You're obviously waiting till the

end to see all all the shakes out. You're gonna take the Seahawks getting three and a half from the forty nine Ers, and you're gonna almost certainly be popping an in game bet here on the Chargers or the Casey game. Once the Pats look like they may be running away with their game against the Dolphins. I'm gonna take the Falcons in the Bucks under forty eight, the Broncos link three and a half to the Raiders, and the Ravens and the Steelers to go under the really

small number of thirty seven. Now, before we move on to our next segment, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM, specifically the bet MGM Sports App. With the bet mgm Sports App, you can place a bet right from your phone. Here's all you need to do. Search for the bet MGM Sports app in your app store, download it, and sign up for an account. When you sign up, you want to

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I think they would get away with the conservative game plan, sort of keep the ball out of Duck Hodge's hands, lean on the run game, lean on that strong defense, and just keep it close, and they should be able to pull it off against a Ravens team that's you know, resting a lot of key players. But I mean the advance line for this game, I probably would have this around man minus thirteen and a half or minus fourteen

if everybody was active and trying for the Ravens. So a sixteen point line move as good as Lamar Jackson is and some of the key players like mark Ingramar, I think that's a lot of points, you know. I think RG three and Gus Edwards will be fine. So it's just the game where I've been tempted to go either way. So I've just decided, Okay, that means I'm not going to bet either side. I'm just gonna enjoy this game, whether it's betting on player props or dfs.

But I am not going to even try to take a side here.

couple of points higher. I think case Keenum at this point is at worst a lateral move from Dwayne Haskins probably, you know, an upgrade, but the offensive line is really beat up. Terry McLaurin is still in the concussion protocol. Last I checked, I haven't seen anything yet from today. They're completely decimated in their secondary. Their corners are Aaron Colvin,

Cody Sensebaal, and cam On Webster. You saw how easily the Giants carved them up last week, so it is really hard to see them stopping the Cowboys at all. But Dak Prescott does not look right, and it's a Jason Garrett led team. So I feel like that's seen the Princess Bride, where Zemi's explaining how because of X factor, I clearly can choose the wine in front of you. But then he goes through another factor and says, and so I clearly can choose the wine in front of me.

And that's basically how I feel. I can't choose the Cowboys wine, can't choose the Redskins wine. I'm just gonna drink beer and be happier for it. So that's the game I'm avoiding. You are avoiding the Steelers laying two to the Ravens, and I'm avoiding the Cowboys lank ten and a half to the Redskins. So before we go into our final segment, I want to remind everyone about

our giveaway, so signed Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can go to betting Pros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher, send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. If you have already entered a previous contest, you are automatically entered for

this one, So no worries about that. The Thomas helmet, all of our signed helmets, they come from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every day. Just go Pristineauction dot com. That's pr I s t i n E auction dot com And when you go there, use our promo code Betting Pros and win a free five dollars voucher instantly. All right, Sean, let's finish up with top prop. What's your best player prop for this weekend?

point seven carries here. Pete Carroll mentioned, you know, he wants to kind of stick with the guy that's been there, so they mentioned they would lean on Travis Homer this game. I think Marshawn Lynch, you know, he will get sort of the short down goal line work, but Homer should get the carries between the twenties. And that's that's where a prop like this comes into play. Really, Robert Turbin, I'm assuming we'll just be nothing more than a change

of pace back. So I like Homer getting over forty two and a half yards. And you know, since we've been on air, the line has dropped to thirty nine and a half. I think this is one of those things where people are they're just excited to see Beast mode Sunday night. So I think the Homer prop it could just go down. I think people will just expect Marshall Lench to just inherit a twenty Carrie roll or something.

So it's rare that I do attack overs on player props, but I think this is one, especially at three and a half. I have I ran my assimulator on it, and I have them getting over that roughly fifty nine percent of the time. So there's quite a bit of value on this right now.

this we always talk about it. It's Thursday. There aren't that many props that are available in the market, and then that's especially true as you said this week, So more often than not, we are taking overs because that's what's available over at points bet, and that is what I'm going to do here. And I'm gonna take Christian McCaffrey to go over seventy five yards receiving, which is that even money over at points bet. Now, if you want the free square, take over fifty yards at minus

two point fifty abstinente injury, that's gonna hit. He's sixty seven yards receiving away from a one thousand rushing yard one thousand receiving yards season. The coaching staff has already come out and basically said he is going to get it. That would only be the third time in history, joining only Roger Craig and Marshall Fock. So look, it's possible that his last reception gets him to seventy yards receiving

and he's pulled. That's fine, but I'd probably drop a larger wager on going over the fifty yards, and I'd add one on the seventy five yards, just to you know, go for the bigger payout. But for me, I think there's almost no chance with a team like the Panthers that has nothing to play for it. There's also probably not gonna be Dj Moore in this game. They want McCaffrey to get over sixty seven yards, So I think over fifty is a lock and over seventy five is

pretty close. All right, Sean, that's gonna do it for today's show. Thanks for joining me. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your.

Apple Podcasts or stitch. Send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com to be entered into our Michael Thomas signed helmet giveaway with your wagers this week and everybody. We will be back next week talking about the playoffs.