Best NFL Week 16 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 37)

nine and the Browns laying three did the Cardinals. I did hit on my top prop, which was Chris Carson over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards and that was at plus two ten, So hopefully we made up for it there. As for our guest Andrew Kayley, he hit on the Panther Seahawks over forty eight and a half, but he lost in terrible fashion with the Eagles laying

four and a half to the Redskins. He also lost on his top prop, Jarvis Landry over forty six and a half yards, and he also lost on the Seahawks, laying six and a half to the Panthers. So in that one, you know, Andrew really could have had a nice week last week. He got a little unlucky there at the end, he.

I by the way, I didn't have it on the on one of my best bets, but you know, I'm bettingpros dot com a lot, you know, over one hundred you know, quote unquote experts we put in our picks each week, and I had the Redskins getting six before the line moved down. So that was a real bummer for me because I've put several units on that one. But there were a bunch of crazy endings like that, you know, I'm sure people with the money line of course, with the forty nine ers over the Falcons and everything

like that. It was just it was a nutty week. So hopefully this week will be a little a little tighter. But anyway, we are going to start as we always do, with pick six, where Sean and I are each gonna give three of our best bets, either against this or on the over under. So Sean, you can start us off. What's your number one pick?

team have a pass rush? Now, this Tampa Bay Bucks team, the defense isn't amazing, but Shaq Barrett sixteen and a half sacks, I think that's enough to carry them to get some pressure to rattle this Texans team. And it's also a great look ahead spot for the Texans. I know they need this game, but I could definitely see them looking ahead to the final matchup against the Titans at home in Houston and a non conference road game.

I always like going against those kind of teams, and Jamis and the Bucks really feel like they're playing for something. They got paramut involved, they got the tight ends going last week. Granted Detroit's defense not as good, but I think at home on the short week, catching three points give it the Tampa Bay Bucks.

echoing what you've been saying in that. You know, when the public looks at this game from Afar, you're like, well, you know, the Texans, they beat the Titans. They could have won that game, you know, going away a little bit, you know they turned the ball over a couple of times, and you know they have the chance now to really put this away, and you think that they're just gonna maybe stomp all over the Bucks, but in the end,

that's not usually the way it works. It's sort of the classic let down and look ahead game here that we've got. Because they've got the Titans on two the last three weeks here, and they're going to face them in week seventeen. I would ordinarily be with you, and the Bucks have been one of sort of the sharp's favorite teams right over the last several weeks. They've been all over them. They've been capitalizing on the fact that

they've been undervalued in the market. Really though, I mean Brashad Perriman is the number one wide receiver at this point. And don't even forget man like Scottie Miller, he's not a bad player, and he's out for this game. It's gonna be Justin Watson, who I actually like as sort

of you know, a project and everything like that. But don't you get a little bit worried about the fact that, you know, as good as James has been playing and as much as he's gonna throw and all of that, that, man, I don't know if they even have the weapons to be able to put up the points necessary to cover that spread.

Bucks team. There's always this sneaky couple teams at the end that are eliminated from playoff contention, but they're trying to get some momentum to roll it into next year. Kind of What else really got me going was the amount of public action on the Texans. Seems like everyone is hammering the Texans, laying the three as a road favorite. So that was kind of the deciding factor in selecting Tampa Bay.

and a half, all right. The viig is a little inflated right now in the three, so I'm just hoping that eventually goes although there is right now our contenenc outs are three, but there's a two and a half out there from bet MGM, actually our sponsor, so I'm not sure it's gonna get to three and a half. But even at three, I'm gonna take it. This is gonna sound sort of silly, but I was a tiny bit impressed with what I saw from the Jets last

week against the Ravens. Forget about the defense, all right, It's almost impossible to stop Lamar Jackson whenever it's decent condictions. It's harder to stop him on a Thursday when the defense has little time to recover and prepare, and it's even harder when you're down Quinn Williams and Jamal Adams. But the offense I kind of expected to be completely shut down by the Ravens, who have been playing much better defensively over the last several weeks, and they really weren't.

They moved the ball well. Sam Darnold dealt with not having a lot of time that he had the critical turnovers, of course, but they easily could have put up a few more points and Le'Veon Bell ran for a season high in yards. But I don't want to I'm gonna be careful here. I don't want to cast the spursions on anyone, okay, but to me as a Jets fan and just somebody watching, he looks completely uninterested in playing football,

particularly in that game, right. I mean, there were a bunch of players where he's clearly the first, maybe the second read on the screen pass, and he's legitimately just kind of like walking or slowly jogging. You see Darnald look at him, and you're like, oh, all right, I've guess I gotta go to my next read because he's just not even putting in heavy air. That's not gonna be the case this week. Okay, he's playing his old team,

the Steelers. I don't mean the revenge game where he's gonna have a huge game, but I think that he's one of still the more talented backs in the league. He's not always motivated, and I just think he's going to be motivated. So I think, at least unlike those types of plays, he's gonna run hard and try to get open that the Steelers they have an elite defense. But I do think that playing the Ravens, as I mentioned, whose defense has also been great, is gonna help Darnld

deal with that. I really liked seeing him get jameson Crowder back involved, so he could, you know, need him on these shorter passes, and defensively for the Jets, you know they can stop the run. They obviously last weekend was terrible. But on Thursday, I mean, but I mean, who cares. They're gonna get Jamal Adams back here. I mean, I'm surprised. I kind of thought he'd be shut down, but there was word out today he is going to play.

Hopefully Williams is gonna play too, some more conventional offense for them. They're coming off that mini BI and if they are able to shut down the run, you can shut down James Connor, then you're left with Duck Hodges. And even if Smith Schuster comes back here, it sounds like he's also trending in the right direction. It's just not the type of game to fear. I mean, you saw last week against Buffalo the cornerbacks for the Jets have actually played a little better in the end. I

don't just think the Steelers are all that good. They have a good defense, but their offense is really terrible. At a very tough game on Sunday night, They've got no faith in their offense. It reminds me a little bit of like the Bears before Trubisky got a little

bit hot. Like if the Jets come out and they can score on their opening drive and they get to a lead, particularly touch on, I feel like you could just look at the Steelers and see that entire team wilt be like, all right, we gave up a touchdown now, so right.

is Duck Hodges as a road favorite. Are we really ready to dub him as a three point road favorite. We've seen this before where these young qbs come in, they're coached up, they don't have a lot of film on them. They succeed early for two, three, maybe even four games, and then the kind of the film gets out on them, they know how to play them, and then it kind of falls apart. That certainly could be

a situation here. Yeah. And as far as Le'Veon Bell not being interested in football, I mean, what would give you that idea? The fact that he was out on a game day that same evening where he didn't play because he was sick, and he bowled at two fifty one and then.

really be putting in that effort. Again, there were plays you looked Darnold legitimately looked at him rolling up for a screen pass as if that's the first read. And there's a guy in his vicinity and he's walking like he just had nothing. So look, both sides are going to be motivated to be fair the Steelers are going to be up for this game to try to stop Belle. I'm sure, but really, in the end, they need to win to get into the playoffs. Here, I get you

mentioned it with Duck Hodges. I do not trust them, you know, I think the book is out on him. I think the Jets are going to take away the run as is their strength. I think they're gonna put it on Hodges. And you know, Donald's probably gonna be running for his life. But you know, his quote unquote success against the Ravens on Thursday made me feel a little more comfortable. All right, Look, we have completely reached our quota. I'm talking about the Jets right now. So

let's move on to your second pick. What do you have?

eight on Monday Night football, oh and eight. And then you look at some of the injuries that the Vikings are dealing with. It doesn't look like Dalvin Cook is gonna play Madison. He's banged up. It looks like it's gonna be down to boone. And you've seen the success for Kirk Cousins has come off the play action, right, they get Dalvin Cook going, they get some screen games going and or you know, the screen game going, and then they kind of do play action off that to

kind of play to his strength. I think Green Bay's in a good position here. They're highly motivated. I mean this is again they're they're right in the mix to you know, they could even be They're gonna run here at the one of the two seed Aaron Rodgers. While he's not putting up amazing numbers, they're just winning games. I'm a little bit worried about the second half because that is kind of been a struggle for the Packers.

But I think they show up. I think they show up in Minnesota and there really is something to this monkey on Kirk Cousin's back and O and eight Monday Night Football and be and O in eight. You know, just not succeeding in prime time, I think is a real thing. And I just love the Packers getting this many points.

not Cook and he's not Madison. So it certainly is going to be something. You know, the Cousins saying, look, he played well on I think it was Monday Night Football against the Seahawks. So I don't want to I don't want to knock the guy too much. He's played

on some bad teams, but I get it. The thing is, I think in the end, the Vikings probably have almost nothing to play for here is I mean if the Ram I believe, if the Rams lose on Saturday, and they're favored to lose against the forty nine Ers, then the Rams I believe, are eliminated from playoff contention. If I have that right, Yeah, And if so right, and if so, the Vikings are in and they could technically win the division. But I think the Packers have to

lose both their last two games. I believe I.

know that's going way back. But I do think there is kind of a mental edge where a lot of teams go into Minnesota, they play in that spaceship like Dome, they get kind of intimidated that the crowd noise gets to them. I don't see that rattling this Packers team.

not that good. They don't play that well, they don't have a killer instinct when they get out ahead, but they somehow keep winning it they are motivated. Again. I talked on Monday about this with Dave Cochin, which is sort of like, you know, the motivation of seeding. He feels like it's not really a big issue when teams playing stuff like that. That's fine, but you know, regardless, it's

a divisional game, you know. And the one thing I think that you can think of a second divisional game when teams like this have played each other obviously, you know, for several years. Still got Aaron Rodgers and you had cousins last year. They know each other pretty well. I think it's going to be a game that's probably going

to play close. So with that getting five and a half points, I really I have no issue with it other than the fact that, man, the Packers make me mad because I feel like I don't really have a good read on them. I'm going to go with an over under for my second pick, and that's the exciting the Bengals and the Dolphins over forty six and a half, mainly because I feel like we need some reason to watch this game at this point, so I gotta go on.

The Bengals probably have the top seed in the draft locked up, so they can just go forward and not have to worry about making sure they lose to lock up that pick. Joe Mixon has been running incredibly well. He did pop up on the INDO Report today. Yeah

I'm reading, Yeah, it sounds minor. I don't like that on a Thursday, but you know, obviously, you know, wait and see what that is, because I would not be going over if Mixing is out, because he's sort of the keys A Hunt thirty six yards against the Patriots last week, more than seventy five rushing yards in five of the bengals last six games. The Dolphins run defense

is absolutely terrible. They're allowing nearly one hundred and forty one yards per game on the ground, so I think the Bengals are easily going to be able to march up and down the field. The Dolphins like a true, you know, really good cornerback now that Dave and Howard is out, so I expect Tyler Boyd to kind of get back on track here. And I think against the soft defense like this, this is their last chance to

get a win. Zach Taylor's going to pull out some creative plays, and after watching the Giants sort of march up and down the field last week, there's a little reason for me to think that the Bengals are going to struggle to put up points. And on the flip side, I think the Dolphins are gonna focus more in their pass particularly with Devonte Parker. Bengals are absolutely dreadful against

the pass. They allow an opposing quarterback rating of ninety six, a ton of big plays that fits perfectly into what Devonte Parker can do. They're oddly good at preventing touchdowns in the red zone. They have like a really good red zone defense, which makes me a little bit nervous when I'm looking at the over But either way, this just sort of feels like a game where both offenses are going to be able to put up points. There's a chance of at least one pick six, if not

multiple pick six is given who these quarterbacks are. So I think the scoring gets up here to push it past forty six, I'll take the over on forty six and a half.

sixty five against the Browns. Heck, they even got the Bills fifty seven total points. Like this, This Miami team they've been I mean, they probably only had one under there in those past games.

been horrific. And while you could certainly say that about them, I mean again, they let up thirty seven points to the Dolphins. Their defense is actually being quietly kind of decent at home, which is probably the best compliment I can give to their defense, but you look at their last five games, they're only averaging fourteen point two points per game. If you want to look at a game where they let up more than seventeen points, you gotta go all the way back to September twenty seventh against

the Detroit Lions, and this Eagles offense. You watch, or I mean watching those last two games, you can see Wentz has got a bit of a rhythm with these new guys. And I don't know if it was Alshon Jeffrey being hurt or Nelson Aguilar being hurt, whatever it was bringing in Greg Ward. And again I was touting him left and right that you must start Greg Ward and your DraftKings lineup. He's only three thousand dollars. I'm telling you people, he's gonna have a big game. He

puts up nineteen point one Fantasy points. Makes me look like a genius. But it's just obvious, like the guy is making a play on the ball. Boston Scott's coming in there, He's making plays on the ball. And as much as as a fan as I've critiqued Doug Peterson, I think rightly so Doug Peterson seems to get these

guys up for must win games. You saw it last year towards the end that granted, some of that was Nick Foles, but even these last two games essentially must win games, Gwentz has come up in the clutch there, driving him down the fourth quarter. And then finally dak Prescott. Dakota Prescott himself, he's banged up. I mean this MRI

shoulder injury. The Eagles were the spread was up to three, and then I think this shoulder injury has is responsible for this line movement down back to one and a half, and there's got to I think there's something to that. He's got an ac joint issue. He's also got an issue with his hand there. It's like, I don't know how they're describing it, but like a near broken finger. I think that could be a real issue for them.

So I think the I think the injuries. I think the mojo that the Eagles have and the fact that the Dallas Cowboys are just openly interviewing other coaches and appears in Dallas during the biggest week of their season, I think I think that's going to have some impact on the team.

Redskins and the Giants get onto these big leads. I'm gonna look at it at the other way, and I think the And that's to my angle of like the defense at home, and the defense looked horrible in the first half of the Giants, but they shut him out in the second half and seventeen points. I mean, if the Eagles can't put up twenty one to beat him,

then they certainly don't deserve to win. But I think that's kind of the heart of my angle is that for whatever reason, this defense, as hot and cold as has been, they do seem to show up at home.

Look he's popping up like this is legitimate. It sounds relatively serious. So it's something where I'm a little nervous about it. If I felt confident in Prescott. I don't know, man, I think I'd go with the Cowboys because I you know, again, I take you mentioned it goes one of two ways, and I probably look at it the other end, which is, oh my god, you could have easily lost to both the Giants the red Skins, and they.

in the NFC. They have a point differential of plus twenty six that is the same as the Rams, slightly more than the Bucks, slightly more than the Chargers and slightly more than the Eagles. They won by more than eight points one time this season, one time in their eleven wins out That one time was against these very same Cardinals, So that is something I don't really see the game coming out like that. Nine and a half. It's a pretty big number, Okay. I mean, and I

faded the Cardinals last week against the Browns. That was a mistake obviously, and it's not like I'm buying the Cardinals suddenly, but I do think they can move the ball here against the Seahawks. As he saw last week, Kyler Murray does pretty well when he doesn't have to deal with pressure, and the Seahawks rarely get pressure on the opposing quarterback. They're one of the worst in the league at that and that's just not the way they play defense at this point. And their defense, by the way,

it's pretty decimated at this point. We know Caandre Diggs is already going to be out, Jadavion Clowney is almost certainly going.

pass defense, is just terrible. It's basically the worst in the league. And the Seahawks passing it's not crazy explosive though, right, I mean, Russell Wilson's amazing, but they just lost Josh Gordon. It's not like they're going to go out there and immediately like drive right down the field. They'll be able to run the ball as well. The Cardinals run defense isn't good neithers they are going to be points scored

in this game. But I mean we saw last week, right, they dominated the Panthers, totally dominated, and then they were just kind of took their foot off the gas and they allowed the Panthers to cover. Depending on where you got the number, I got it at five and a half at one place, which was great, But I had at six and a half, which I felt confident in as well, and I lost that one. The Cardinals have covered in the majority of their games. That's usually because

they're getting the big number. And in the end, what it really comes down to is this game really doesn't mean very much to Seattle. I mean, if they beat the forty nine ers next week, I think they win the division regardless of what the forty nine ers do against the Rams or what they do against the Cardinals. And yeah, they're seating, and you know they're going for

the bye with the Packers and the Saints. And again though Dave Cochin really hammered down the point that you know, when you look historically, seating does not seem to be all that much of a motive factor. When you're making the playoffs or you're winning the division, that means much more. Going for seeding, even when it comes to a buy, doesn't usually have that big of an impact. So I think the Seahawks are gonna in this game try to

be a little careful with their injured players. I don't think they're gonna push everything, and even if they jump out to a lead, I think they can take their foot off the gas. Nine and a half. It's a big number. So I think the Cardinals at the very least can back door cover.

of kind of like little brother in the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, in the same way that the Rams always play the Seahawks tough regardless of the year. It seems like Seattle always just kind of has Arizona's number. But the point, the diferential, the motivation, there's just so much going for Arizona, and especially at that giant number, Arizona has been sneaky with the back door at times this season. So yeah, I'm with you there.

getting nine and a half from the Seahawks. All right, Before we move on to our next segment, I want to tell everybody about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM, and specifically the bet MGM sports app. Do you like betting on sports? Do you like betting on sports from the comfort of your own home? Do you like betting on sports from the comfort of your own home and basically being offered free money. If not, you're probably listening

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a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, John, let's move on to It's a trap, where we list the line that we are avoiding. What do you have?

conference road game. Again, I kind of like what I've seen out of a lock here, but it's a very limited sample size. Then on the other side, he got Detroit, who they just made it clear they're not going to fire their head coach, So I don't know how that's going to impact things. Six and a half feels like a lot for this Denver team who looked that bad against Kansas City. But yeah, I don't really want to take either team in this, so yeah, that's one to avoid for sure.

the ball on this offense? But you know, this may be sort of more of a narrative thing, but I feel like at this stage of the year, right when you've got these teams that are out of it, and you know, the Broncos come home after a road trip and stuff like that, and they're probably just kind of like, you know, it's the holiday season, right, they're just sort of getting fat and happy and just like, Okay, I feel like the intensity might not be there. So it

was something that kind of moved me off. But yeah, a game like that is just not really a fun game to bet. And it's kind of very similar to the game that I'm avoiding, and that's the Chargers laying six and a half Raiders. I don't know what I'm going to get from either of these teams at any given game. The Raiders had absolutely no business losing that game to Jacksonville last weekend. It was their final game

in Oakland. They came out hot, and then they're just like all right, cool, cool, that's cool, We'll just hang back whatever. It was completely in hand. I mean, well, the Chargers are the least reliable team in the NFL right now. They're cable looking really really good at any given time or completely got awful, which they did the majority of the time. They were the sharp side of that game last week against the Bikes right out of the line.

get from either of these two teams. So it's sort of like your pick six and a half, a big spread from two teams that I have no idea how motivated they are or what you're gonna see from either one of them. So I'm gonna avoid it. So you'll avoid the Broncos lank six and a half to the Lions, I'll avoid the Chargers lank six and a half to the Raiders, and we will both be happier for it. So before we go to our final segment, I want to mind everyone about our giveaway. It is a signed

Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at Bettingpros dot com. If you have already entered a previous contest, you were automatically entered for this one, so no worries about that.

and three fifty, four hundred four fifty. Just go all in on this because not only is Tampa Bay passing the ball well, but Houston they're passing defense twenty eighth in passing yards in the league, and if you look at their average per game two hundred ninety one passing yards per game the last three games, again Winston coming off four hundred and fifty yard back to back performances. Maybe there's a little regression, but I like taking props where you can build a scenario for either team that

still gets you into the prop. And so for me, I think even if the if the Bucks don't win somehow, or if they if they're getting blown out, I think they're still gonna be passing. If they're winning, I think it's gonna be because they're passing a bunch. So either way, I think Winston's gonna get his, especially when it comes to passing yards.

two games of four hundred and fifty yards or whatever. Yeah, there's gonna be a lot of throwing, as you mentioned the Texans twenty six and Dvoa against the pass, So I do think they're gonna need points. They're gonna be throwing, So I love it. That's definitely a prop that I will be interested in. I'm also interested in at prop. I'll be honest, Winston would have been my time prop had you not stolen it. So I'm not gonna lie. But you know you've you've been, You've been a good guest.

I'm gonna let you. I'm gonna let you have the pass that on. So I'm gonna go with a less impressive prop, but still one that I'm gonna be playing, and that's Terry McLaurin. To go over one hundred receiving HOURDS, that's a plus one seventy, so you're getting, you know, close to two to one on your money. Janoris Jenkins has gone for the Giants. You can pass on them, particularly as their run defense has gotten a little bit stronger over the past several weeks. Now, I know Bill

Callahan just wants to run the ball NonStop. But you have seen of late Dwayne Haskins actually playing a little bit better, and he and McLaurin are finally showing a little bit of the connection from college that everybody had kind of been waiting for. And he caught all five of his targets, and that's really what it was. I mean, sometimes Haskins just like missing him and it's just terrible to watch him. But you know they're getting you know,

the efficiency is getting better. They're showing a little more of that connection. I think they're gonna be chasing points in this game. I think the Giants are gonna be able to put up I think Saquon looks close to being back to full strength. I think they have their full compliment of passing weapons outside of Evan Ingram, but the three receivers. So I think the Giants will put up points. I think the Redskins are going to need to try to ketch up to keep up with them.

I think that in the end there's gonna be at least one or two big plays to McLaurin. So one hundred receiving yards at plus one seventy's I'll call that my second top prop because my first one is Winston, but I'll go to McLaurin over one hundred receiving yards at plus one seventy.

our Michael Thomas Saints signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this week and everybody. We'll be back breaking down the early lines for week seventeen on Monday, so