Everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. It is time to break down some of our favorite and our least favorite bets for the week fifteen. Goodness gracious NFL slate With me to talk about it all is Andrew Kayley, a senior publishing editor over It Covers. You can find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore Kaylee. That's c A L. E. Y, Andrew. What's going on?
Not much? Just can't believe that the season we're already in week fifteen, semi finals for fantasy playoffs already. It's just it's like we say it every week and every year it's like, oh okay this week, but now it's almost over.
I mean, I'm a huge baseball fan, right, like I cover both sports. I'm huge, and legitimately it's like halfway through the baseball season, I'm like, how is it it's not over already? You know, it's like it goes by at a snail's place. Football you legitimately blink your eye and it's completely over, which is crazy, you know, We'll have a lot more going on even into the playoffs, so we have plenty of more bets to talk about. But for right now, we're going to talk about Week fifteen.
But before we do, we're gonna do the full Monty where we review everything that happened last week. I hit on the Ravens lank six to the Bills and the Titans length three to the Raiders, but I missed pretty hard on the forty nine Ers Saints under forty four they just about doubled that, and Darius Guy's over seventy five rushing yards. But I'm not going to take blame for him getting injured. Yeah, that's not my fault. I'm
not taking it. Our guest Ian McMillan, he hit on the forty nine Ers getting two and a half from the Saints and the Dolphins getting five from the Jets, but he missed on the Patriots getting three from the Chiefs and narrowly on Nick Chubb over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards. So a bit of a mixed bag last week overall, but not the worst. So are you ready to get going? It's not bad. Are you ready to get going? I'm ready all right, So what
you got for your first pick in pick sicks? And again, before we get into it, let me just make it clear. Any odds that Andrew and I reference, they're going to be the bettingpros dot Com consensus odds. Those are the aggregate of the odds that you're gonna find available in the marketplace. All right, sorry to cut you off. Let's get started with pick six. What do you have here? First pick?
So the first pick, we are going with the Seattle Seahawks minus six, laying six points on the road in Carolina. It doesn't seem like a great number on the road. But the Panthers fired Ron Riviera and then they come out and look like they have absolutely no fight in them, Like that move seemed completely wrong, Like let them finish out the season they at least play for this guy. And then they get beat down forty to twenty by a Falcons team that had, well, I guess the Falcons
to be fair, have now beaten them twice. They account for half of their wins against the Panthers. But now they go up against the Seahawks team that is gonna really want to bounce back after what I thought was kind of a weird game against the Rams, like they
could move the ball, but they just couldn't score. And I don't know, they just ran some weird sets on offense, and uh, now they're gonna try to bounce back and keep pace with the Niners of course in the NFC West, And this just doesn't line up well for the Panthers at all this game, this matchup, Carolina is barn on the worst rushing defense in the NFL, and of course the Seahawks are one of the best rushing teams in
the NFL. Just some fun Carolina rushing defense stats. First, they ranked twenty ninth and rushing yards allowed per game. They also rank last in yards per attempt at five point three per carry, and they also rank dead last in Football Outsiders DVA rating against the rush. They've also given up twenty one rushing touchdowns this season. That's the most in the NFL and seven more than the next closest team. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rank fifth and rushing TV
away seventh the yards per attempt. I know the ox for Shrod Penny for the year, but there's still some backfield death with I think Precise is back there, still backing up Carson. I really like Carson this week. I think he has a really big game. And of course they still have that Russell Wilson guy who's pretty good and well the past Panthers pass defense excuse me, the
Panthers pass defense. I say that five times fast. Is they haven't been as effective the last over the last month or so, and for a team that just seems to have it sould gutted. I'm taking I'm laying the points with the Seahawks here. They're they're they're motivated, they have to win. They're frankly the much better team. Lay the points.
Yeah, I'm in completely agreement with you on this one. I'm a little surprised that, you know, our consensus isn't more overwhelming. I mean, it's sixty seven percent taking sand which is a pretty big number, and I'm surprised it's not like eighty five percent. I mean, when you look at the breakdown of both the number of bets in the market and the money coming in, it is strongly
skewed towards Seattle, and I completely agree with you. I feel like it's a little difficult at this point for bookmakers because you know, everybody's got their models, and that's why you see some of these lines and you're like, well, I feel like, generally speaking, the line should be much greater than it necessarily is. And that's a lot because you know, these the bookmakers, they don't react as heavily to one or two games as maybe the public does.
But I mean, at this point, it is obvious from ten thousand feet away that the Panthers are just mailing it in at this point, right, they just can't do anything, get anything right. The defense you mentioned it, they're terrible against the run, and they've just completely given up since then. They look like they just have no interest in tackling anybody. Kyle Allen has completely come back down to earth. I'm not even sure he's going to survive this entire game
as a starting quarterback at this point. And like you mentioned the Seahawks, I mean, not only are they coming off a loss, but they're pretty desperate for a win. I mean it might be the difference between the number two seed and the number five seeds, so it's pretty big. So for me, I think this is a smash game for everybody. I think Chris Carson's going to go nuts. I think Russell Wilson's going to go nuts. I think Tyler Lockett, who's finally recovered from his illnesses, is going
to go nuts. And again, you know, to the extent you know, the Seattle pass defense has been not Seattle. I'm sorry. The Carolina pass defense the whole season has been decent. But I mean, I really think James Bradbury is probably gonna match up on.
Metcalf at this point, right, I'd say so? Yeah, And so that that whole unit has really come together, like especially with now that Lockett is is healthy. I like the way that Metcalf is playing. Even Josh Gordon is like Carvin's his a little niche there, and it's it's fun to see them play together.
Yeah. No, So I agree with you. I think this is a smash butt for Seattle. I have, I mean under a touchdown. I love it. I'm all over it as well. So I'm with you for your first pick. I think you're gonna be with me for my first pick as well. And that's gonna be the Jaguars and the Raiders going over forty five points. Since the Jaguars by they have allowed thirty three, forty two, twenty eight and forty five points. This is a defense that has completely mailed it in.
I mean, you want to it makes it.
It makes Carolina look like they're playing their butts off and desperately trying to get to the playoffs. Their rushed defense is thirty first in the league in yards per carried running backs at five point three, thirtieth in yards per game at one hundred and forty one point one, but that is nothing compared to their last three games, in which they have allowed one hundred and sixty two
point seven rushing yards per game income the Raiders. Despite their various offensive deficiencies, they can still run the ball behind that offensive line. It sounds like Josh Jacobs is gonna play this weekend.
I mean, Joe's weird. Yeah, it was like, oh, he might be done for the year, and now they're saying like, oh no, just day to day.
I mean in the end, First of all, there were a couple I mean, it sounds like John Gruden doesn't want to play him necessarily, but their reports say they looked great. And again, remember this is their last game in Oakland, right, This is they want to they want to have a big performance here, so he's probably gonna play but even if he doesn't, DeAndre Washington is kind of an underrated running back in the league. I think
he showed last week he can carry the load. They're passing offense not great, but car played well against the Titans. They still have Darren Waller. They're capable of moving the ball. I don't think Miles Jack is really going to be able to shut Waller down. And all though you know the Jaguars run defense is abysmal, their pass defense lately is almost just as bad. You saw Philip Rivers in the midst of a horrific season totally light them up.
They've allowed a ninety six point three passer raigning to opposing quarterbacks on the season. That is tenth worst in the league. It's been getting worse lately. This is really just an understanding that the Jaguars have totally mailed it in. Now, Okay, fine, that's defensively, but the Raiders they're pretty equally inept defensively at the moment. Thirty four forty forty two points. Those are the points allowed over the last three games. One
of those is to my beloved Jets. The Raiders defense has been abysmal against the past all season, right on the surface, they've been decent against the run, but I've never really bought that. I think their run defense has largely been a little overrated, hidden a bit by the fact that they are so bad against the pass. And look, there's no shame in getting beat up by Derrick Henry, but you saw what happened last week eighteen carries for one hundred and three yards, and again, the pass defense
just terrible. They allowed two hundred and sixty eight passing yards per game, twenty eighth in the league, one hundred and five point nine QB rating against thirty first in the league, and the Jags passing offense hasn't been great even with Gardner Minshew. They're probably going to be down Djhark in this game, but I think they can do enough against this defense. Again, my only worry here legitimately is that because it's the last game in Oakland, you
see that crowd is going to be crazy. I'm sure the Raiders are going to put up points. You could see maybe their defense playing, you know, getting up for this game and maybe shutting down the Jaguars. But overall, I think in the end there's going to be a lot of points scoring this game, So I'll take the over forty five and not sweat too much about him.
I can't, I can't disagree too much. Of these teams rank twenty ninth and thirty first in defensive DVOA this year, so yeah, I like. Also, I also like, I think Leonard Fournette will get a little more on track in this game. He's been pretty pretty outstanding all year, which is a relief to his fantasy owners.
Yeah.
Yeah, but the Raiders are going to have their hands full. He seems to still be trying. I'll give him. I'll give him the credits.
Hey, and Minshew's trying. I mean he's out there, He's running around like crazy.
But I love me some inshumanias.
Everybody loves it all. Let's move on to your second pick. What do you have?
So we're jumping back into the same Seahawks and Panthers game because while the Seahawks are doing have an opportunity to put a lot of points on offense, the defense also has some some issues that are I guess being overlooked at this point. The Panthers have allowed thirty three points per game over their last four games, so yeah, they've they've quite slipped quite a bunch, and the Seahawks there's no reason to think they can't have a similar output.
Like we said before, or you said before, Wilson's gonna have a great game. I think that as well. I like we I also mentioned how I love how the wide receiver Cord looks he has. Wilson has a standing numbers this year thirty four hundred yards, sixty seven percent completions, twenty six touchdowns, just five picks. And we also mentioned that the Panthers pass defense is just not up to snuff anymore. But the question here is whether or not Carolina can score enough points to get this one over,
and I think they can. Seattle doesn't grade out the best on defense, ranking twenty second against the rush in DVOA, and now they have to deal with Christian McCaffrey this week. I know he has definitely cooled off and he's definitely not any part of the MVP conversation anymore, but we all know what he's capable of, and he can break a big one at any time. The Seahawks are also really vulnerable over the middle of the field, particularly against tight ends, and now I hear that Greg Olsen might
be back. I'm not sure why, but I think Ian Thomas can also be effective in this spot. And obviously Kyle Allen is not going to vow you in any shape or form, but he has some good weapons. That is a disposal. And yeah, I think the Seahawks are gonna have some issues come playoff time, but in and I think the Panthers can actually show that by scoring some points here. And I like the over forty eight.
Disagree. I think that in the end, like I said, I expect this to be kind of a smash game for the Seahawks, especially offensively. The thing is like, you know, you think about the Seahawks and historically you're like, ooh, you know, they've got this really great defense, you know, and you reliant rust Wilson, but it's not really the case anymore. I mean, their defense is fine, but it's
not elite at this point anymore. So, I you know, as much as I don't have faith in Kyle Allen, I do think that they're gonna be able to put a points in this game. And again, I expect a lot of points from the Seahawks at this point. So I like both of those picks. So far, so so far, we're doing good. We're on the same page. I don't. I hope you're good.
Sorry. I think if they get anywhere around seventeen to twenty points, I think, I think this one goes over all right.
For my second pick, I'm going to be taking the Eagles and the Redskins under. It's now at thirty nine, okay, And this happens almost every time I take my pick. I get it in and then when I check right before we record, it has moved. And at least that gives me some confidence that my inkling was correct. Thirty nine is a small I originally had it at forty and a half. It was forty when I decided to take it here, and now it's thirty nine. I don't care.
I'm still taking it back in college, all right, Uh, Andrew, my buddies and I were sitting around late at night and some really dumb infomercial came on. I do not remember the product. It was something that no rational human would ever buy. And one of the guys just randomly blurted out in kind of a weird voice, whatever they're asking, I'll double it. And that line has always like popped into my head whenever I see something that I am
actually interested in. So I was talking about this total with one of the guys and he said, oh, I wonder what the big is on it, And all I could think was, whatever they're asking, I'll double it. I don't care what this is. At this point. I'm all in on this game. I'm having a hard time seeing how this total gets past like thirty six, maybe at max. I mean, kudos to the Eagles for beating the Giants on Monday Night, but are you kidding me? Right now?
With this offense? Alshon Jeffrey is done for the year. Lane Johnson is not going to play. You're pinning your hopes on Nelson Agalore, which is really a scary proposition, and he's probably gonna be too, so literally, it's gonna be Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders and like fifty tight ends that they're just going to be throwing out there. It's really difficult to see them moving the ball, even if Jordan Howard comes back, which sounds like he actually might
have a chance. The Redskins, though they have not mailed it in. I mean, they continue to play hard. They get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. They are top five in the league at getting pressure. Especially without Lane Johnson protecting Wentz, it's gonna make it a little tough for him. And overall, the defense is not the worst. They're decent upfront, and it's really about just how the Eagles are so decimated offensively and now they are coming
off this short week. And then on the other side of the ball, you have the Redskins, a team led by Dwayne Haskins and a coach who is legitimately trying to run out the season. They run the ball nearly as much as any team other than the Raven since Bill Callahan took over, the fifth most in the league in that span. Dwayne Haskins, as anybody who has watched a football game understands, is not performing particularly well for obvious reasons this year. He also takes a ton of sacks.
The Redskins take a ton of time in between plays. They're legitimately trying to run out the season. And the Eagles, they have a really solid run defense. That's the one thing that you can kind of count on with them. You're not gonna see many explosive plays, especially with Darius Geis out. You've got Adrian Peterson carrying the ball. That's not gonna make these you know, huge chunk plays or anything like Geist was at least cable to get. Really, I just see that both teams are gonna run the
ball a lot. It's difficult to see either one of them having much success. Running leads to clock movement, which tem swards the under So even at thirty nine a low number, I'm okay with it, I'm gonna take it.
Uh, yeah, I have. I have no real disagreement here. You stole a bunch of my notes leading into my next pick. Here, I'm I'm taking the Eagles minus four and a half for my final pick. But my first line was here, Bill Callahan literally looks like he's trying to run out the clock on the season. Yeah one, Like you said, Dwayne Haskins not look good. Guy's done for the year, which is kind of a bummer because
I really was enjoyed watching him play. But they also rank thirty first in Offensive DVD away because of that play from Haskins and the way Adrian Peterson runs the ball plots. He's definitely more of a plotter these days. And they also here are the teams with fewer yards per play than Washington this year, Chicago, Miami and your New York Jets. You mentioned the Eagles are not great ton of injuries all that, But I think Doug Peterson
is finally recognizing the talent he has. And Miles Sanders, I think he's set up for a big game here against a Washington defense that doesn't greed well against the run. They do get pressure. But Wentz, I don't know. Wentz is an enigma to me, Like sometimes he makes these great throws that he shouldn't be making, and then other times he misses these really easy throws. It's really frustrating, so it's hard to have faith in him. But I think they lean on Sanders in this game. I think
Ertz will probably have a good game as well. Maybe a guy like Dallas Goddard has like eight receptions for like fifty yards and sets up a touchdown or something. I don't know, but I think this number at this number was higher before. As we talked of off area, it was close. It was six before, and now it's
coming down to four and a half. Anything under six I'm comfortable taking, just because I don't I don't see Washington scoring for the most part, and which leads into your underplay, so we'll we'll take We'll take the Eagles as well at minus four and a half.
Yeah, I don't have a great feel for it. I'm gonna be honest. I mean, I think if I was forced to take aside probably at four and a half, there's value with with the Eagles at that point. I did lock in, I'll be honest. I mean, you go to betting pros dot com. You can see how I or any of you know, the top betting experts in the country really are betting any particular game. And I locked it in when I saw the Redskins getting six. As you talked about it, sounds like you really wouldn't
necessarily be interested in the Eagles at that number. And again, part of it is just it's really difficult to see the Eagles putting up a ton of points here, right, No, right, But at four and a half it's a little closer. It's not a game that I would personally bet because it's something that makes me a little bit nervous just backing the Eagles in any capacity at this point.
They're motivated now though they're so close to that division title.
I know, man, but they're gonna be able to get that division title no matter what. They could just beat the Cowboys at the end, so it's all good. I love how everybody who's terrible just controls her own destiny because it doesn't.
Matter now what it's dumpster fires is this?
Yeah, Yeah, it's funny. I mean, look, I like once, I think he's a good quarterback. I understand the criticism of them, but right now he's just got absolutely nothing going on that he can no no skill players that he can really get the ball to. So he's hanging in there. It's an interesting game. I don't really love it at this point. If you know at six I liked the Redskins at four and a half, a bit of a stay away from me.
They'll lead into a little later where I like, I don't like a lot on this week's board.
So oh, this is a tough board for sure, And a lot of the games I like, I feel like are the big, big numbers, and that always makes me a little queasy, especially when I'm looking at mostly favorites. This one is a smaller number, but it is a favorite, And I like the Browns laying three to the Cardinals in Arizona, So when I first looked at this game, I did not want much of it. I've kind of
given up on relying on the Browns this year. They're in this group of teams that I just don't know what I'm gonna get when they come out to play. But I feel pretty comfortable with what I'll get from the Cardinals at this point, and that is nothing great. The Browns are still alive for a playoff spot. They're going to be playing hard, and the Cardinals have three wins this year. They've beaten the Bengals by three, they beat a decimated Falcons team that was pretty much quitting
by one, and a really bad Giants team by six. Yeah, they occasionally hang around. As a general matter, though, they're just not that good, particularly defensively. They're okay against the run, fine, but Cleveland's two edit attack of Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt can move the ball against anyone, and the weakness of the Browns of offense is its passing game. Baker Mayfield has not been good all season. He was knockod against the Bengals last week, and he's got more interceptions
and touchdowns. It has not been a good year for Baker, but the Cardinals pass defense is a joke. They're fourth worst in passing DVA. They're worst in the in the league in YOURDS per game, in completion percentage, and QB rating against. Their cornerbacks have been two of the worst in football all season long, and that is shocking since one of them is Patrick Peterson, but he has been
graded terribly by Pro Football Focus. They cannot cover tight ends, and David Joku is back to practicing in full he should be back ready to go in full capacity this week. I just think that the Browns are gonna be able to score pretty easily here, and I think the Cardinals are gonna put up some points too. But the Browns
Achilles heel is really their run defense, right. They allow four point eight yards per carry, and the running game is fine for Arizona, but they're not a team that just runs it forty times right down your throat unless Kyler Murray gets more involved. The Browns are solid against the pass despite missing both their cornerbacks for the vast majority of the season. They're both healthy now. Their top
ten in passing yards allowed per game. They get pressure on the quarterback pretty consistently, even without Miles Garrett so this is much much more of a fade of Arizona, and I liked it better when it was originally under a field goal. I saw a two and a half at one point, even at a field goal, though, I'm still gonna take it. So I will take the Browns in Arizona laying three to the Cardinals.
You're not gonna get an argument for me on that.
One, all right, Fading Arizona. I'm gonna be mad if I get an argument from anybody at that point. All right, let's quickly review. You like the Seahawks laying six to the Panthers and the total over forty eight and a half in that game, and you like the Eagles laying four and a half to the Redskins. I'm going to take the Jaguars and the Raiders over forty five, the Eagles and the Redskins under thirty nine, and the Browns
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Visit betmgms dot com for the fullest of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem, call one eight hundred gambler. All right, Andrew, it is time for it's a trap where we list the line we are avoiding. Start us off.
Like we said, there's a lot of lines to avoid this week. It's like I'm looking on the board. I see the Titans there minus three at home, but I still can't shake the idea that Ryan Tannehill is good. I have no idea what to make of that Bills and Steelers line as well. I'm looking at the Vikings line as short faves and that's super suspicious, like definitely a trap there. I remember we talked about the Packers doing going out to San Diego. I did it, darn Los Angeles.
It's been like two years, man, time, you got to get past it.
But they did the same thing, and the Packers went out there and we were like, oh my goodness, that's that line. Looks suspicious And of course the Packers lost. But funny enough, the line I am not trusting the most is that Rams and Cowboys line. Like you said, it's been jumping all over the place, and I think that has to do with the fact that nobody really
knows how to grade either of these teams. They the Rams look wonderful on offense one week and the next it takes Jared Goff fifty passes to throw two hundred and forty yards. And with the Cowboys, the Cowboys are just I guess they're just a mess. A team that talented at seven and the defense isn't as good as they thought it would be. H vander Esch being hurt has really has really affected them. But I wouldn't be surprised if they came out here and won this game.
And now they're getting like a point and a half at home. So I'm just no, thank you staying away, Jason Garrett, see you later. Let's get Urban Meyer in here and try it all over again.
I can't remember a line swinging quite this much from opening, right. I mean, this is crazy. It's like five and a half points at this point right now the Cowboys are getting one and a half. I mean, look, I agree with you. I'm not going anywhere near this. I really want. I mean when I look at it and I kind of break down the entire game. There is value now with the Cowboys. You're getting value at this point with them playing at home getting one and a half points.
But I cannot stake my betting life. I'm Jason Garrett, right, I just can't at this point. And the Rams look really good, but again, you know it's hard to not overreact to what you just saw. And you know, the Rams have looked really good lately. The Cowboys have looked bad. But again, Cowboys at home kind of you know the values there, but I can't get involved in that. And that is coming from somebody who just took a Freddy Kitchens led team on the road at Arizona, and I'm saying, man,
with Jason Garrett there, I can't get involved. So I agree with you on that one. Man. It really is something where wow, the line, the movement in the line, you know, the public is all over it. It just it scares me, So I agree with you. I'm staying away for my pick. I am going to avoid the Packers laying four and a half to the Bears. I just I cannot get a read on this game. The Bears have been playing better, but the defense is still solid. It's not great, and they just lost Rokwan Smith. And
the Packers are kind of just like coasting along. They rarely look impressive, but they're generally finding ways to win. And it's basically a must a must win game kind of for both teams. The Bears need to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Packers need to not only stay ahead of the Vikings, but they're also in play for the number two seed if things break right. Divisional opponents who know each other well second meaning of the year. It's just not a game I really want to get
involved in. If I was forced to choose a side, I guess it would be the Bears. But it's really in limbo. It's just not a game that I feel comfortable with.
I couldn't agree more the Bear. The Bears are one of those teams that fall into that category of like, are you gonna get good Mitch or bad Mitch? And if you get good Mitch, you're gonna get some some
good results. I think a lot of the like you said, the defense has been good, not like they haven't been like as outstanding as we want, but I think a lot to do with uh, the fact that those for most of the season, the Bears just haven't been able to sustain drives and they're they're getting gassed and they're getting tired and teams kind of wear them out throughout the game. But yeah, I uh like the Packers on the other hand, like I don't I don't know what
to make of mattliflur in that offense right now. They like you said, they find ways to win, but it's been ugly. But I guess maybe it comes playoff time and then their experienced when and ugly, which is what you need in the playoffs. So who knows. That's why I'm staying away.
As you mentioned, there's like five or six games that can usually fall into this category. Right, there's a bunch of games that neither one of us won want to touch. But for now, I will avoid the Packers giving four and a half to the Bears, and you will avoid the Rams laying one and a half now to the Cowboys. So before we get onto our final segment, I want to remind everyone about our giveaway. It is a signed
Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can go to Betting Pros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher, send the screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com, And if you have already entered a previous contest, you are automatically injured for this one.
So no worries there now that Thomas helmet. All of our signed helmets they come from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every Just go to Pristineauction dot com. That's p R I S t I n E auction dot com. And when you go there use our promo code Betting Pros win a free five dollars voucher instantly. All right, let's finish up with our top prop where we give our top player prop bet of the week. What do you have?
My best prop of the week, which you can also find over at Covers Propshop podcast, which we do every week, is Jarvis Landry to go along with your Cleveland Browns, but to go over his receiving yards total of seventy six and a half yards. Like you broke down all the reasons why we like the Browns to cover that spread, and that kind of goes into why I like Landry
in this game as well. I looked at Baker's yardage total as well, but he's just like there's some some of his games are so inconsistent you don't know what you're gonna get with him. Juice has been consistent, and he's back to me and that target monster we're used to, averaging over ten targets and nearly eighty yards per game
over his last seven games. Like you said, this, Cardinal's past events really and it's like we said, shocking because that includes Patrick Peterson, but either way, I think Peterson's probably gonna be on Odell most of the time anyway. And another area that the Cardinals are really terrible that
is defending tight ends. They're like really like worst in the league at defending tight ends, and not that they're gonna you mentioned inn Djoko, but they can also use Landry all over the field, and he does his best work in the middle of the field, which is a spot where the Cardinals are lacking. So I like them to take advantage in that spot and go over his receiving yards of seventy six and a half.
Yep, love it. Mayfield is somebody who you know, I do a lot of fantasy, as we kind of alluded to, and you know Mayfield just you know, I'll probably have him ranked relatively decently, But he's not somebody who I love because you just can't trust him. But you can pretty much trust Landry. He's really the one part of the passing game that you can druss. So I like it. I think they're gonna have a big game, as I mentioned, and I do think the Landry is gonna get a
big piece of it. I am going sort of to dovetail into one of your other picks, and I'm going to go with Chris Carson over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards at plus plus two ten. All right, so you know we're getting we're getting some juice on that. The Panthers, as you mentioned, I mean, you basically gave it all anyway, so I don't really have to go into it too much. But as you mentioned, the Panthers are last in the league in rushing defensive DVOA. They've
completely mailed it in. The Panthers have a lot. They have a lot one hundred and seventy five rushing yards per game over their last three games. You mentioned Rashot Penny is out for this game, that they don't have anybody else really to run. They desperately need to win. Brian shot and hyper wants to run the ball. They're gonna do so. Again here it's you know, it's a big number, one hundred and twenty five yards, but you know you're getting two to one in your money, more
than two to one in your money. So again, this is a game where I think everybody on the Seattle offense goes crazy. But specifically Chris Carson, especially with Penny out with Penny in, they're basically splitting Carrieres WITHO him, CJ. Pross is not going to really siphon off all that much. It's gonna be a lot of Carson. It's gonna be a lot of yards. I'll take over one twenty five at plus two ten.
Love it.
I knew you would given your plays bad but yeah, he's He's a big one, and if you are playing fantasy, certainly Carson should be considered probably a top five back this week this week. All right, that's gonna do it for today's show. Thanks again for joining me, Andrew. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
You can find me at covers dot com and on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee, we're getting ready for bowl season now too. That's how crazy the the how crazy fast the football season goes. We're already coming up to bowl season, so we'll have breakdowns of every single bowl game this season, so look forward to that.
Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on the show. This might be your fourth time on the show or something like that.
I think it's something like that.
Yeah, all right, we'll call it, we'll call it. I always enjoy having you on. You're really easy to talk to. You don't insult my jets too much. It's it's a rarity for a guess, so really appreciate it. Hopefully we can do it again soon.
Can't wait?
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Good luckily your wagers this week, and everybody, we'll be back breaking down the early lines for week sixteen on Monday