Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris ad. It is time to break down some of our favorite and our least favorite bets for the week fourteen NFL Slate With me to talk about it. All is Ian McMillan, a writer for oddshark dot com and my eighth favorite guest that we've ever had. You can find them on Twitter at Ian macOS I'm gonna spell that for you as I always do. That's at IAI n mac m
a CEOs Ian. Thank you for coming back on how you doing today?
I'm doing fantastic. Did you say I'm your eighth favorite guest?
That's correct? I have a leader board? Yeah, oh yeah, man, come on, I have a leader board.
Now.
Look, I've got to be honest. The difference between you and number six not that much. So you can really push head right now if you kind of bring your all.
Are you ready to do that?
I am definitely ready to do that.
All right, Well, you guys know how this goes by.
Now, Ian and I are going to give our three best bets for this weekend's games. We're gonna give you one bet to avoid, and then we're gonna list our favorite prop of the week. But first we need to review last week. And I realize now that I have never named this segment where I review what the guests and I did last week. So Ian I figure, you know, we're bearing all from last week. We're not hiding anything. How does calling this one the full Monty sound to you?
Is that cool?
Yeah? Sounds pretty good to me.
Wonderful, So great, everyone listening, get ready, Dan Harris is about to go full Monty, and I'll warn you it's not pretty. I hit on my best bet, which was the Rams laying three to the Cardinals, but I missed on both the Cowboys Bills over forty seven and the Jets Bangals over forty one and a half, as well as my top prop of DJ Chark over one hundred
receiving yards. And our guest Steve Merrill hit on his top pick, the Packers laying six and a half to the Giants, but he missed on the forty nine Ers Ravens over forty seven, the Raiders getting ten from the Chiefs, and Aaron Rodgers over two hundred and fifty passing yards. So it is time to bounce back and Ian, if you want to rise in the rankings, I suggest you be accurate today. You're gonna get u started here with pick six. We're each gonna give three of our best bets. Start us off.
Okay, yeah, my first one is I would say my number one favorite bet for this weekend. It's the forty nine Ers plus two and a half over the Saints. You know a lot of people don't They always talk about the Patriots and their impressive defense, but the forty nine ers are actually the team they give up the fewest yards per game, and I actually think the Saints
are a little bit overrated. I think if any team the NFC that's in the playoffs right now is what some people would say a fraud, I would say it's the Saints just because their schedule has been so easy since earlier in the season. Really, their last tough game was against the Cowboys, but Week four, I believe that was so. I think the forty nine ers are getting
undervalued almost every single week. I don't know when people are gonna catch on that this is one of the best teams in so getting them as an underdog two and a half points, I'll take that all day. So forty nine ers plus and a.
Half, So do you fear it all? I mean, look, this is a big game for both teams. The forty nine Ers, I believe, are now the fifth seed. The Seahawks have passed them, so they're desperate for a win. But the Saints here, I mean, they've got to take this win to be able to try to clinch home field. That's going to be a big thing for them in the playoffs. And Drew Brees at home? Are you not scared at all about you know, look, he's usually pretty good in big games at home.
That place is going to be crazy.
You think the forty nine Ers, who are coming off a game, by the way, a tough game there where they you know, really went toe to toe with the Ravens, a lot of hard hitting on a shorter week than the Saints, who are coming off a Thanksgiving game. They've
had extra time. You still think in this game, even though again the betters are with you because the spread when it opened when I saw it was three, so it's down to two and a half, you still confident there that the forty nine ers can kind of overcome all those variables, I am man.
I mean you you mentioned the Saints at home. The Saints are actually two and seven against the spread in their last nine games as a home favorite, so I think their home field advantage might be a little bit overvalued. Also, the forty nine Ers four to zero against his spread in the last four games as a road underdog. So
both those kind of trends favor my pick. So of course, I mean I'm a little bit worried, Yeah, of course, but no, it's not enough to not enough to deter me from taking the forty nine ers out of curiosity.
How do you see the game unfolding? You think they're gonna go toe to toe scoring a ton of points. Both teams are pretty decent defensively. You think it's gonna be sort of a closer battle like that, or just generally speaking, how do you see it?
I think it's gonna be a game people are going to really start to question Drew Drew Brees. I think he's just I don't know if he has the zip in his arm that he quite that he used to have. So I see the forty nine Ers winning actually by double digits.
All right, well, one of the reasons I asked you that was not just to get your outstanding analysis, and it was a great statu by the way, about the Saints at home with the spread, but really because it's going to lead into my pick, which I was gonna give a little later, but it dovetails perfectly with yours, which is this same game the forty nine Ers and
the Saints under forty four and a half. Now you've laid out a lot of the reasons, and really, when you're looking at the over under in this game, it's not rocket science. You've got two elite teams, two very good defenses. As I mentioned, the forty nine Ers are coming off that tough, grinded out game against the Ravens. They're excellent with the run, but that's kind of where the Saints specialize. That's the strength of their defense against
the run. They're coming on the road again for the second straight week, in this crazy environment where you've got you know the fans are going to be nuts, and so you look at the forty nine Ers. When they put up a lot of points, they usually do it by getting a lot of turnovers. They're third in the league with twenty nine turnovers. But in games that they don't go crazy in terms of scoring, it's usually when they're unable to force a ton of turnovers, and I
think that's what's going to happen here. The Saints have turned it over just seven times on the season, that's the fewest in the league. And when you look at the other side of the ball, you mentioned the deal with Drew Brees, the offense just is not dynamic at the moment. I'm not sure whether or not Breeze is just feeling his age. He's obviously getting up there. Maybe he hasn't quite fully recovered from that thumb injury. We obviously had the surgery on the ligaments, so maybe that's it.
But he certainly does not look any work close to even the Breeze we saw two years ago. At this point, Alvin Kamara has not really gotten it going since coming back from his injuries. So they're really not at the point where they're gonna be able to put up a ton of points, especially, as you mentioned, on a great
defense like the forty nine ers. So you know, forty four and a half, that's not a crazy number, it's not really all that high, but it's certainly not overly low, So I think for me, I'm not sure I'm confident on either side in terms of the spread. You make a lot of good points, but for me, I see the total kind of here as coming in under forty four and a half.
Yeah, I to be honest, I like that pick a lot too. On the total, I would le lean the under as well. For forty nine. Ers are have the second most rushing attempts per game as well, So anytime you have a team that likes to run the ball a lot, that's going to keep the clock moving, and the more the clock moves, that helps the under. So yeah, I like the under there as well. Yeah.
I think both teams are going to try to control this game. I don't think anybody's gonna be like, let's, you know, push it down the field and score points.
So I feel pretty good about that one. Let's move on to your second pick.
What do you have? So for my second pick, I'm gonna go are you oh right? Okay, yeah, I'm gonna go Jet or sorry, Dolphins plus five versus the Jets. I was gonna say, are you are you a Jets fan?
I have a Jets?
All right?
Hold on, hold on, I just want to make it clear.
You have now moved up to seventh in the overall guest right just by remembering that, So you're on ahead.
But I might drop back down in the ranking because I'm gonna betting against the Jets. I'm taking the Dolphins plus five in this game. To be honest, I think the Jets. I think they had that momentum after Sam Darnold said, hey, if we run the table, we're going to uh we have a chance of the playoffs, and then they won a few games back to back and then losing last week and just getting absolutely crushed in that game. That's that's a momentum killer. That's a morale killer.
And then on the other side of the thing, on the other side of the ball, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins, Ryan Fitzpatrick going against his old team, and we saw a little bit of fitzmagic. U O to Fitzpatrick last week. He's you know, it's it's classic him. He's gonna throw the ball. He can throw for two, three, four touchdowns in a game. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets actually do win this game. But I
think five. I think five is too many points, and the Dolphins are just kind of they're at the point of the season now they know that they suck. They know, you know, obviously they're eliminated, eliminated from the playoffs, but they're kind of because they've accepted that fact. It looks like they're actually like playing with a little bit of fun. You saw that trick play, that wild trick play that they had last week to score the touchdown. It's like
they're kind of just having fun out there. And if you're gonna have fun, you're gonna play loose, and that's when you can kind of win games, especially against teams that might be a little bit more demoralized after that tough loss last week. So uh yeah, I like the Dolphins and I and another thing to keep in mind with the Dolphins as well, against the spread this year,
they aren't too bad. They're six and two, I believe it is again in the last eight games as an underdog, which is the last eight games, I don't think they've been a favorite. So I think the Dolphins are a little undervalued here.
Yeah, I mean, I think all of that is fair, and especially with Jamal Adams probably going to miss the game, that's certainly changes thing with the Jets. But I'll be honest, I you know, this is a game where you know, when I'm looking at the breakdown, it kind of looks like there's a little bit of a difference between the public side and the sharp side. Sharp side seems to be a little bit on the Jets, and you get it because sort of classic is you know, by low
Sell high a little bit. Right, the Jets are in the perfect spot where you'd be like, Okay, they had put up thirty four points in three straight games. They lay a complete egg against the Bengals. They're not as bad as that, but the public's going to look at that. Meanwhile, the Dolphins come off that awesome win against the Eagles, whereas you mentioned it, the crazy trick play that they ran right near the goal line. So it is a spot and the spread has moved, you know, look ahead
might have been seven. I think it's down to five. So you know, certainly it's something where when I look at it, generally, the factors generally you kind of just look at the basic ones. They would favor the Dolphins. Right, They're coming off the big win, they're playing loose, they're playing fun. You know, they don't fits magic. It's certainly you know, on the upswing right now he's got he goes through these periods where he's dominant with the Jets.
You could just see them totally being.
Like, all right, man, well that was it. Jamal Adams went down, Le'Veon bells, touches are trending down. Sam Darnold is banged up. But I honestly, if I'm forced to bet this, this just kind of strikes me as the last hurrah for the Jets. They've got tough games coming up, They've got the Ravens coming up. This might be their last chance here for a win. And I kind of feel like they're gonna come out and they're gonna put a herding on the Dolphins because I think the public
side is going to be so with the Dolphins. So I get your side of it. I can't really point to any specific, you know, metrics or anything like that, or even really a narrative that disagrees with where you're going. But for me, when I look at it, I think this is one where I'm probably going to be taking the Jets. And you know, I wasn't as sure when it was six or six and a half even, I mean, it's a dead number once you're down that low regardless. But I think at five, I think I leaned towards
the Jets. But you know again I'm not I'm not, you know, going after you too hard on that one, because I think you're probably gonna I think the majority of experts on our site are going to go with it, But for me, I think I'm gonna only with the Jets there.
Getting five, Yeah, no, that's fair. And also, I mean it is a divisional game, so divisional games, anything can happen. I mean, both teams know each other so well, so that's also why I kind of I like to have the points and divisional matchups.
Yeah.
Absolutely, By the way I said getting five, of course I'm in giving five. But yeah, it's gonna be an interesting one. But again, this strikes me as sort of like, all right, the last hurrah. You know, I wouldn't be surprised that Le'Veon Bellvin you know, gets shut down earlier or anything like that. This is kind of their last time they lost against the Dolphins. They probably want a little bit of a revenge there, so I think they're gonna come out firing.
So we'll see about that.
Now.
My next game is one.
Where I kind of am sort of doing the opposite of what I just said, Like the classic Bilo cell Hi. I'm not doing that with this game, unfortunately, and that is the Titans laying three to the Raiders. Now, when I first looked at this, it was down to two and a half. That's where I got it on the betting pros on when I make my picks, because you can get it in whenever you pick what the odds are.
So I took them at two and a half. It's back up to three. I look at this line, it just it.
Feels to me like it should be significantly different. And that's just not how everybody is looking at it. The consensus are pretty split down the middle at what this game should be. The sharp money looks like it's coming in on the Raiders. So I have a question for you, Ian. Are the Jets who we just talked about, are they a good team? Are they a good football team? You can be hon it, don't don't don't hide it. You can be honest with me. Are the Jets a good football team?
I would say they're the definition of average.
All right.
I would say they're below They're below average. Man, But you're killing my narrative. Are the Jaguars a good football team?
No?
Are the Falcons a good football team?
Oh? I'm a Falcons fan, so I'm gonna say, of course no.
But no, I'll say all three of those teams have a better point differential than the Raiders this season. So again, this is the bylows cell high part.
Right, the Raiders.
You know, I've gotten beaten up pretty good by the Jets and the Chiefs. Both of them were in colder weather where Derek Carr usually struggles.
They're coming home.
They've had this rutal travel schedule all season, so you're kind of like, Okay, this is a spot where you know, maybe now you can buylow on them. The Titans, meanwhile, they're on the role. They've won a bunch of games, but a lot of them kind of on fluky you know plays here. I mean, the easily could have lost to the Bucks, they could have lost to the Chiefs, they could have lost to the Colts. But I really don't see this as a game that the Raiders are
gonna win. I mean I could see it, I guess getting to a push if everything breaks right, But overall, I'm not concerned. They have to be able to run the ball. The Raiders with Josh Jacobs, that is the bottom line. That is how their offense has to function. And right now, Jacobs is playing through a fractured right shoulder. According to him, I mean, you know that's great. He's missed practice for most of the week. And the Titans
are one of the best teams against the run. They allowed just four yards per carry, seventh best in the NFL. The Raiders have lost Hunter renferral Tyrell Williams is a shell of himself as he battles planter fasciitis. The Titans defense is just strong. They allowed just nineteen and a half points per game. That's eighth best in the NFL. So I don't really feel like this is a bi low opportunity for the and their offense. And meanwhile, Ryan
Tannehill is playing great football. I mean this is not just where he's like, wow, look at them, they're winning, because it's not Marcus Mariotta. No, affirmatively, he is playing excellent football right now. He's incredibly accurate, he's decisive, he's using his legs. The team is averaging twenty nine point seven points per game with Tannehill under center.
It is late in the season.
Nobody wants to get in Derrick Henry's way when he's running, which leads to a ton of red zone efficiency, especially now that Tannehill has taken over and they're moving the ball well. The Raiders to strike me as a team that look like they're on the verge of giving up. They had this great run, they were suddenly in contention, and now it just looks like it's kind of all falling apart. The Titans are surging. I buy their recent performance.
So I really really like this game, and it's weird to me that I'm kind of on the wrong side of it when you look at the way the sharp money is coming in. But I will take the Titans laying three to the Raiders.
Yeah, I like that pick. I'm not going to bet on this on that game myself. The hardest thing about betting on the NFL is there's not very many games in a season, like we're at the end of the season now and the teams have only played twelve games with the bye week, so you just don't have a big sample size. And when that happens some teams, half the games they look like they're a great team. The other half the games they look like a terrible team, and you just don't have enough games to look at.
And both these teams, in my opinion, fall into that category where I just don't know what I'm gonna get from either team because I haven't seen them play enough, and it's just been so one side or the other. The Titans beat the Chiefs one week, and then you know, they get shut out by the Broncos another week, and the Raiders are just like that. So I like the pick.
It's gonna be a stay away for me, though, just because both those teams throw the Buccaneers in with them as well, just teams it's impossible to bet on because I have no idea what team's gonna show up.
Yeah, I can look. I can see me looking back, you know, in this game on Monday, being like why what was I thinking? Why was I looking at it this way? But right now I'm totally in on the Titans at this point. And you know, again, even though they could have easily lost, you know, I don't know half the games at Tennel started. I mean those games, you know, in the end they did find ways to win, and I trust their defense, and it's as much of
a sell. I'm going to continue to sell the Raiders right now with the way they're looking lately, as I am buying the Titans. But let's move on here to your third pick.
What do you have? Yes, my third pick here, So I took two underdogs in my first two picks. I'm going to take a favorite here, and this kind of follows the same theme. Now I'm going against what I kind of did with my last pick, where I'm now going to buy low on a team. So I'm gonna
take the Patriots minus three against the Chiefs. And I mean, we see this year in a year out of at some point in every single season, the Patriots put a couple of average, not so great games kind of in a string, and people start questioning, oh, it's Tom Brady washed up? Are the Patriots dynasty? Is their dynasty finally over? And you're starting to hear whispers of it after their loss last week. So I think this is a good time to buy the Patriots. I mean, they're still a favorite,
but it's three points. As long as it stays at that three point mark, then I'm happy. With it. And don't forget the Patriots are at home too, and they're I mean, they're unreal at home. They've won twenty one straight games at home. They're sixteen and five against the spread in those games. They still have the arguably the best defense in the league. You could argue maybe the forty nine ers now Patriots defense and have a great
week last week, but their defense is fantastic. Tom Brady, yeah he might have slowed down a bit, but you can't discount Tom Brady. And the running game is great. So and then the Chiefs for the other team, the Chiefs, their defense has not looked good. I don't think they're the chief the same Chiefs that they had last year after losing a couple of pieces of a couple of players on defense. So I think it's a great time to buy the Patriots low. I'm going to take them minus three.
Yeah, I can't disagree with anything that you're saying. And they're coming off the loss by the way too right, and then coming home. It just seems unfathomable that they would lose this game. But I think this is gonna be one where I'm gonna wind up staying away from it.
As well. And again, if I do go in on it, I'm almost.
Certainly gonna go with the Patriots for all the reasons that you're saying. But in the end, man, there are two things that make me a little nervous. One is that the defense, as good as it is, the one bugaboo I feel like they kind of have that you see, is that they struggle a little bit with mobile quarterbacks because they play so much man defense. They rely on their corners who just kind of have their back to the quarterback right, They're just playing up on their men.
That that leaves them vulnerable a little bit to guys like Lamar Jackson, to guys like Deshaun Watson, even when the running totals aren't there necessarily for the quarterbacks, I think that style gives them a little bit of trouble. You saw, you know Mahomes. He obviously had the knee injury, but since he's been back, he hasn't been running like crazy, but he scored a rushing touchdown last week. He had about twenty five yards. He has that threat, So it
makes me a tiny bit worried there. And the other thing is, Man, look, I'm a Jets fan as we talked about I don't think the end is ever gonna come for Tom Brady. And we've looked at this each of you know, the last several years. We'd be like, oh, this has got to be done, this has got to be done. But you know, as much as it is about him, and I know he's on the injury report this week apparently with both an elbow.
And now a toe injury.
Who knows, but you know, he's getting hit a lot, and the receivers other than Edelman are just kind of raw. I mean, sew Is, everybody's been in and out. Door set has been in and out, you know, the young kids, Harry, you know, he obviously ran the wrong route the other day and in the last game, and Brady was pretty fired up about that.
It gets me a little worried about just.
Being like, well, they're the Patriots. Of course they're going to bounce back, and we've seen this, I get it. Really a little bit worried about their offense. So if I'm gonna go in with that set. As much as I'm saying negatives, that's really just what's keeping me from being all in here on the Patriots and saying, yes, this is going to be one of my picks overall.
If I were forced to pick.
A side, I would be on your side. But I just get a little nervous man watching him. I don't know, I've been watching him obviously for twenty years.
This just this is as bad, I think as i've seen him look, So it makes me a little bit nervous.
Yeah, those are all fair points that you make for sure.
All Right.
For my final pick, I'm gonna continue to buy high with the team, although to be fair, the team they're playing should also be buying high, and that's the Ravens laying six to the Bills. When I originally wanted this, it was five and a half. That's not a huge difference like the little more five and a half. I will take it at six. The Bills extremely extremely impressive this entire season. That was a huge win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Now they're coming home, they are on
the Patriots heels. There's a legitimate chance that after this week they could have the same record as the Patriots. I'm still fading them, really, rather than fading them, I'm more just buying the Ravens completely and Lamar Jackson. They're coming off that tight game in horrible weather against the Niners, an elite team. Jackson couldn't throw the ball at all, and they still managed to win that game by three.
The Greg Roman system and Lamar Jackson's play just creates what essentially aunt to being an unstoppable force, and it obviously, you know their offense, it's almost entirely about the run. Jackson has been a far better passer that we've expected, but a lot of that is because the running game opens everything up, and that's really where you can attack the Bills defense on the run, they allow four and
a half yards per carry. They really struggle when the runner gets past that first level, leading to bigger plays. The Bills have a great defense, but it's primarily the pass. And it's not as if the Ravens sort of rely on unstoppable wide receivers or anything. It's all about their scheme. They're going to be able to run the ball and run it well, and I think they're going to be able to put up points kind of at will here and I don't see the same thing for the Bills.
They've been held to twenty one points or fewer in seven of their twelve games.
The Ones they went over.
That were two against the Dolphins, the Giants, the Redskins, and now the Cowboys, none of which have elite defenses. Now the Ravens defense is beatable early, but now not at all. Brandon Williams being healthy really strength and their run defense. They're good in their secondary. Josh Allen hasn't thrown many interceptions, but he hasn't been in the position of needing to come back. I think he's gonna be here. I don't see the Bills as being able to put
up a ton of points in comeback mode. We saw with Deshaun Watson against the Ravens that they practice all day against Lamar Jackson right said, they know how to contain a running quarterback like Allan So I just see the Ravens getting ahead here holding on. I don't think the Bills are designed to win this type of game. So you know, it's six points, it's a lot, but I think they're gonna win by more than a touchdown. So I'll take the Ravens laying six here to the Bills.
Yeah, that game is a stay away for me, man, because this is one of those games where it's like all week you lean one side at least for me. I've like I leaned Bills early, and then the more I look at it, I leaned Ravens, and then I was back on Bills. So I don't know. I agree with all the points that you that you made. I like the Bill. I do kind of like the Bills. I mean six six and a half, they're at home.
If you remember the first Samos on this show, I believe it was the right before the opening weekend I picked the Bills, or at least I mentioned it that I thought the Bills are gonna have a really good year and make the playoffs. That turned out to be correct. So because of that, I feel like I have like a special little attachment to the Bills. It's hard for me to bet against them now because of that. But yeah,
I don't know if to stay away from me. I agree with all the points that you made, though I don't hate the pick.
Hey man, let me make it clear, all right. I had the Bills over six and a half for over under my best pick at the over underwins coming in and I went to school in Buffalo, so I'm basically like married to Buffalo at this point. I'm still willing to fain them. I get it, they're just you know, the game against the Cowboys, that was the first one where I really was like, wow, this is impressive. But still at this point, I just can't. I can't get behind them. I think they're gonna need a lot of
points here. I don't think they're really going to be equipped to put it up, so I'm gonna lay the points. A little scary, I agree, but I'm gonna lay them. So let's just recap here what we have. You like, the forty nine Ers getting two and a half from the Saints, the Dolphins getting five from the Jets, and the Patriots laying three to the Chiefs. I'm going to take the Saints and the forty nine ers under forty four and a half, the Titans laying three to the Raiders, and the Ravens now laying six.
To the Bills.
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Yeah, so I briefly touched on this earlier. The game I'm avoiding is the Colts in the Bucks, mainly because of what I touched on earlier. Justin in Jamis Winston. You have no idea what you're gonna get from Jameis Winston, even from drive to drive, not even just week to week. One drive, he looked like an NFL MVP quarterback. The next drive he looks like he shouldn't even be the
starting quarterback. And that's reflected he's been benched already a couple times this year, and then he's come back later on the game. So and then on the other side of things, the Colts, I feel like we're what thirteen fourteen weeks in the season, I still don't know what to think about Jacoby Brissett. I feel like I don't. I'm still back to square one where it was when Andrew Luck announced his retirement. I don't know what we get from him. The Colts have beat some good teams,
but they've lost to some bad teams. The Buccaneers are the same way. They've beat some good teams, so they've lost to some bad teams. This game makes no sense to me. And I will not touch James Winston with any kind of bet, and I haven't since like Week five of the season, just because I don't know. You can't figure Jameis Winston.
No, So I pretty much was putting whatever Bucks game was going on that week in this segment for like four or five straight weeks for exactly that. And look, if I'm forced to pick a side here, it's gonna be the Bucks, just because, you know, as good as the Colts looked early on, as good a coach as Frank Reich is, this team just seems like a team that's right about to kind of shut down here. I mean, t Y Hilton's probably out for the season. Even if they get Marlon Mack back. They want to run the
ball the whole time. You cannot do that against the Bucks. But on the other side, Yeah, you mentioned it. It's Winston. It's all Winston. There's no way that I could feel comfortable backing someone like Winston because even if you're in a position to cover, there is just this backbreaking pick six or fumble waiting to happen at the end. So you know, I've tried to stay away from using the bucks every time here, So I'm glad that you did,
because I'm in agreement with you there. As for me, I'm avoiding the Eagles laying nine and a half to the Giants, so Eli Manning's coming back, and honestly, I'm not really sure whether or not that's a positive or negative for the Giants at this point, but whatever it is, I certainly have no faith that their offense or their defense is going to be able to do anything here.
But there is just no way that you can back either the Giants or the Eagles, a team that I took last week laying ten to the Dolphins and who got beat outright as we talked about, they have been injured for much of the season, They've dealt with a lot of stuff, but there's just something missing from this team.
I don't know what it is. But it's missing.
So if you can go out and put up that performance against the Dolphins after the Cowboys gave you an opening like that, under no circumstances can you be trusted, let alone laying nearly double digits. And add to that that this is a divisional game, two teams that know each other very well. It's just something where I'm gonna completely avoid. So I'm not going anywhere near the Eagles laying nine and a half to the Giants.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. If it was a Sunday two o'clock in the afternoon game, I would stay away from it too, But it's a primetime game, and I think I'm legally obligated to bet primetime game, so I have to bet on it. I'm probably just gonna take the under and call it a day. But I agree with all with all the points. To me, a tough one.
If you had to make a pick, which would it be on a side?
Yeah, Giants, I think I'd go Giants. Believe in Eli Maning. He's his record I saw is exactly five hundred, so he needs that one win to get over the five hundred marks.
So yeah, give me the giants, and I guess you could see him just being like, all right, let's, you know, throw caution to the wind. Here, it's, you know, on my last Monday Night game, Let's go crazy. But I certainly will be sitting on the sidelines of this one and not going anywhere near. So I'm avoiding the Eagles laying nine and a half to the giants, and you are avoiding the Bucks laying three to the cults. Now, before we get into our final segment, remember we've got
a signed Michael Thomas helmet giveaway contest going on. You can get more details over at bettingpros dot com slash contest, but to be entered, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. Send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now, I said on Monday's show that I was going to announce the winner of the Odell Beckham Junior helmet giveaway on
this show, But I'm a big old liar. I will announce it on Monday's show, though, however, I promise, and the winner will be notified and everything will be perfect. My bad on that one. All Right, it is time for Top prop. Will we list our top player prop of the week? Ian get Us started.
Yes, I'm taking and I actually love this prop bet. I'm taking Nick Chubb over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards against the Bengals at plus one oh six. So, first off, Nick Chubb is averaging the most rushing attempts per game in the NFL right now, is averaging nineteen point eight rushing yards or sorry, rushing attempts per game. And then rushing yards per attempt, he's averaging four point nine.
So Nick Chubb not a lot of people are talking about him, but he's actually quietly been one of the best running backs in the entire league. And then when you look at the Bengals defense, they are one of the worst rush actually, they are the worst rush defense in the entire league, allowing one hundred and fifty seven point six rush yards per game. So this seems like a layup to me, It seems like the obvious bet to make. I think Nick Chubb is gonna have a
big game the Browns. I mean, they're seasons basically all bit over, so I think they're gonna think I think they're gonna come out and run hard against the Bengals.
Yeah, I like to pick.
I'd be a little worried about the fact that Kareem Hunt continues to kind of siphon off some carries since he's been back, you know, with Chubb. But in the end, it's such a great matchup. They are gonna run it all the time. And you know, Bigger Mayfield. You know, it's not nothing the hand injury that he has. I mean, he's poop pooing and everything like that, but it really
looked like it was affecting him. So I think they are gonna come out it's getting cold, They're gonna lean on the run, So I like it.
It's bold.
That's a high number. I'm gonna go with a smaller number and a much much worse running back. I'm gonna go with Darius Guys over seventy five rushing yards against the Packers. That's at plus one ninety, so you're almost getting two to one on your money. You know you can run against the Packers. There are two big negatives here for the Redskins. Got the game script, they're probably gonna be behind, and the fact that Guys is likely
gonna split work with Adrian Peterson again. But again you know, two to one on your money, you're obviously taking for the odds. Guys has yet to receive more than ten carries in a game. I think he's gonna get more than that in this one. He's shown that he's health he's running well. I think they want to let him run a little bit towards the end of the season to get him ready going into next season. It's in Green Bay. It's not going to be the prettiest weather.
I mean it's not bad or anything, but it's not going to be balmy or anything like that. Dwayne Haskins cannot pass against a bad against a very good pass defense, so they're certainly going to want to run it against sort of the Packers Achilles Heel, which is their run defense. There's going to be a lot of running. As again, the Redskins have basically done since Bill Callahan took over. They're just you know, they play the fastest games in
the NFL because they just run non stop. Even with splitting time with Adrian Peterson, I think guys can still see fifteen carries. I think he can get to that seventy five yard number. So for me, given the fact that it's basically two to one. I will take Darius Guy's over seventy five rushing yards up plus one ninety I have.
I love that. I mean he look at the game he had, Lot, he had a monster game last weekend. Ten carries, one hundred and twenty nine yards, two touchdowns, So yeah, I love that. Pick a lot. He's averaging five and a half yards per carry this year. That's a great one. Man.
That was really positive on my pick.
So I'm going to be on this year up to six now yeah to sex, Yes, all right, if you come back again, we'll keep rising up. So again, you like Nick Chubb over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards, I will take Darius Guice over seventy five rushing yards.
Well, that is going to do it for today's show. Thanks for coming back on the show. Ian. Remind everybody where they can find more of you in your work.
Yeah. Absolutely. The main place is to follow me on Twitter at Ian mac O s I A I N m Acos. Also I'm on Guys and Bets every day. That's the Odd Shark Live Show. We go live Monday to Friday at twelve pm Eastern on YouTube. So check out our YouTube channel, it's just odd Shark awesome.
Well, I want to remind everyone about our sponsor bet MGM, where you can win one hundred dollars on a one dollar money line bet for the Patriots to be the Chiefs if Tom Brady completes.
Even a single pass in the game.
If you sign up for the bet MGM Sports app using our promo code Harris and don't forget to leave us a review on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com to be entered into our Michael Thomas Find Helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends, we will be back breaking down the early lines for week fifteen on Monday