Best NFL Week 13 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 31)

least favorite bets for the week thirteen NFL slate. And with me to talk about it all is Steve Merrill, a professional handicapper and owner of Pro sportsinfo dot com. You can find him on Twitter at his name at Steve Merrill. That's me E R R I L Steve. How's it going, Hey?

You also get the football element. And know it's the same as the bowl season coming up next month with college football. So yeah, the holidays and the weekends, it's kind of a reverse holl you know, Tuesday and Wednesday or my off days. The weekends and the holidays are busy, and Thanksgivings great because you get that tripleheader of NFL action.

prop bet that we're interested in. But before we get into it, let's do some full disclosure revisit last week's picks. I hit on the Seahawks getting one and a half from the Eagles, Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers, but I missed on the Packers and the Niners over forty seven and a half, and on my top prop, which was Oldell Beckham Junior going over one

hundred yards, he fell just a bit short. Our guest Greg Smith hit on the Jets getting three from the Raiders and the Ravens giving three did the Rams, but he missed on the Dolphins getting ten and a half against the Browns and Darren Waller over fifty receiving yards. So a bit of a mix bag for both of us, Steve. People have turkey to eat, injuries to fake so they can line bed and watch football. So go ahead and get us started. What's your first pick of the week.

is here. But you can take a look at the green Bay Packers though they're at the Giants, and this line's been moving around this week. You know, seven is a very key number in the NFL, the second most key number after three. About five percent of the time favorites win back exactly seven points, and this line was seven and a half initially early in the week. It's not a solid six and a half across the board in almost all locations, and I think there's some value

now with the Packers laying less than a touchdown. This is a green Bay team that was in a terrible matchup last Sunday night against San Francisco. You know, many of the shows I did last week asked me about that game because it was a big spotlight game, and one of the things I jumped out to me was the fact that the forty nine Ers pass defense has been as good as anyone's in the league this year, and Green Bay does not run the ball well. They're a pass happy offense with Aaron Rodgers so it was

a terrible matchup. It showed as they managed only eight points. But I think this is a bounce back spot. Now, I always like to play Class eight teams, whether it be the NBA or the NFL. Awful loss. Packer's still eight and three on the season, the Giants two to nine. This is a focused spot. And then he had the fact that the Giants have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL game up over eight yards per pass.

Now to can trust that with San Francisco. The Niners allow four point six, the Giants allow eight point one. That's how much of a difference it is from last week to this week. I think the Packers take full advantage in a double win.

they're going to come in and go hard. One thing that I'm i'm I want to ask you about since you're obviously professional handicapper is from everything I'm looking at, you know, I don't have all the data, but it looks like the vast majority of both the number of bets and the money are coming in on the Packers and this game. But I'm not sure why the line then has gone down from seven and a half to six

and a half. Is that just a factor of the fact that, you know, the look at line of seven and a half the Packers looked so terrible coming in, you know, against the Niners, that would account for the line movement, or because you know, ordinarily, when you see you know, that much money in particular coming in on one side, you would expect the line to go up rather than down.

a good point. Normally in the NFL, I am rarely on the side of the public, and this does look like a public pick. I think it might be a little less public though, as you mentioned, because Green Bay looked so bad last week and the odds makers probably adjusted that in. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game hit seven though by Sunday. I think the public will come back in and push it back to that key number.

cover for pretty much the entire season. They're five to one and one against the spread over their last seven games. They're home, they're coming off a bye, So certainly, on the surface, things look good here for the Cardinals. Not as well for the Rams to cover the three points spread. But you know, I just mentioned how the Packers are extremely desperate. They're not quite as desperate as the Rams. I mean, look, they're six and five with the Vikings,

the Packers, the Seahawks. They have almost no chance at a wild card if they don't win this game, and I think they're going to and I think they're going to win big. The offense has looked broken. Jared Goff did not throw a touchdown pass in the month of November. They've been held to seventeen points or less in three straight games. But this is kind of the matchup that

the Doctor ordered. The Cardinals, ring twenty ninth in defensive DVOA, thirtieth in points allowed per game, thirty first in yards allowed per game, thirty second in passing yards allowed per game. This just gives me that feeling where you know, the Rams got shut down by the forty nine ers a few weeks back, and then they bounce back big and destroyed the Falcons thirty seven to ten. Their offensive line is terrible, but they have all three of their receivers back.

They're going to be able to use play action. I think they're going to be able to get on back on track here and put up some points offensively. And the Cardinals look they'll be able to put up points too. They've been doing it a lot lately, despite two of their last three matchups being against the forty nine ers. But you know, even though you know, the Rams were completely blown out by the Ravens, they've been very solid

defensively overall, particularly since trading for Jalen Ramsey. They're eleventh in defensive DVOA and with the Cardinals offensive line struggling, you know, generally speaking, I think that Kyler Murray's is probably going to be dealing with, you know, some pressure and he's able to escape it. But at the very least, I think they'll be able to slow down the Cardinals enough to get out here with the big leads. So at three, I think the worst case for me I'm

looking at is a push. I feel pretty confident that the Rams are going to win the game, So I feel like here they're going to win my more than three, But at absolute worst, I take him there. So I'll take the Rams lang three, even though they're on the road against the Cardinals team off a bye, I feel pretty good about him.

buye came in a really good time for them. Obviously, this is the team that was on a four game losing streak heading into the bye week. But they're not a good team still, and at some point I expect the Rams to wake up. I thought there was value with them on Monday Night. I had a plan them at plus three and a half for my clients. It obviously did not work out. I thought that line was ridiculously inflated based on how good the Ravens had looked.

You know, LA's probably maybe what a six point favorite when the season begins against Baltimore than they were three and a half point dog this week. But with that said, they have underachieved. I also liked them the week before against Pittsburgh, so I don't disagree with you. It's two weeks in a row. I've lost with the Rams. I'm probably not the best person to ask, you know, as far as you know when to play them. But that Super Bowl loser situation seems to work a year after

year where they always regress. And LA's definitely having a down season so far, and it'll be interesting if they can't take advantage of areas out of this week. I'd be very careful with them going forward.

able to put up points. So, you know, I agree, if they lose this game, then you know, forget it. You can forget them for the rest of the season, but I'm willing to roll with them one more time at a point where they're probably most desperate all the year. Let's go to your second pick. What do you got here?

NFL and the Baltimore Ravens. Now, I'm not going to necessarily jump on the Ravens though as a side pick, because as I mentioned, the public is all over them. The line just continues to be inflated. I was even surprised to see that six this week. In this game, San Francisco has been as good as anybody in the NFL.

So basically, the odds makers are saying the Ravens are three points better at least than San Francisco maybe it's just two points, because home field could worth be worth about four here it is a west coast to east coast spot. Both teams played the Sunday and Monday night primetime games, but this will be a ten am Pacific kickoff for San Francisco, so I'd be careful with them, but I don't necessarily want Baltimore even with the inflated price.

I think the best way to play this game is the over under, and the over looks like the way to go. I mean, obviously, the Ravens have been an offensive juggernaut this season, but the total is just forty seven in this game, and that's because San Francisco's defensive numbers have been so good. This is really crazy to if you look at it. San Francisco averages thirty points a game, the Ravens averaged thirty five points a game. At sixty five, the totals forty seven. Now, the reason

isn't because Baltimore's defense is great. They allow eighteen and a half a game, but I think they are mediocre defense. In fact, they give up five point eight yards per play against teams that averages five point six, so theoretically they are below average defense on the yards per play basis.

The reason this total is only forty seven is because the forty nine Ers defense gives up less than fifteen points a game, and they have been fantastic this year four point six yards per play against teams at average five point six. But they haven't faced an offense like this, you know, the Patriots offense. Our defense had been fantastic all season also until a few weeks ago when they

gave up thirty seven. And I just don't see them slowing down Baltimore, especially with the below average run defense. I think there's value with over forty seven. You know, it seems like a public pick being a Raven's over, just like the Packers are public. But once again, I'm not afraid to be on the public side here. I actually think that total is way too low.

in three games or something like that. I mean, he is just really his speed and you know, just the offense that they're running over there, it's really really difficult to slow down, even with the defense as good as the forty nine Ers been, and of course, you know they the strength of the Ravens in what they're trying to do is run the ball effectively and to the extent there is a spot to attack the forty nine ers defense, it is more on the run specifically, since

you know, kwant Alexander went out and yeah, you know the Ravens defense. I mean, I think I like them a little bit more, probably than as you've described, just because I think a lot of their season long statistics were influenced early on when they were dealing with a lot more injuries. You know, Brandon Williams really hurt their ability to stop the run and everything like that. They

were banged up in the secondary. I do think that they're playing better lately, but I agree, I mean, lo, Kyle Shanahan is perhaps the most creative offensive coach in the game, so he is going to be able to devise certain things. So I'm in good lead agreement with you. When I saw it, you know it struck me as well. That's what I try to look at when I look at the lines, I just take my gut reaction before I really dive into it, and my gut reaction was certainly it was low. So you know, we do picks

on bettingpros dot com. You know, I don't know one hundred and fifty. You know, quote unquote experts make picks. And I've already locked in the over on that one, so I'm in total agreement with you. I'm gonna go also with an over here, and you know, Steve, I think you're gonna disagree with this one, but we'll talk about it for a second. And I do want to make it clear. When I picked it, it was at forty six. It has moved to forty seven. It's been trending up.

So I locked it in when it was forty six, and I feel better about that. I'll still take it at forty seven because what the heck. And I will go on a Thanksgiving game, even though some people, when you're listening to this, it may be late. But you know, we never get to do Thursday games on the show because we usually record on Thursday. So I'm gonna do it. And I'm going to take the Bills and the Cowboys

over forty seven. Again, as often happens, it was forty six when I sort of looked at it and decided to make the pick. But I'll stick with it at forty seven. The Cowboys ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring at nearly twenty seven points per game. They're even better at home, averaging more than thirty points per game. They're second in offensive DVOA. That's obviously including this past weekend where they did absolutely nothing against the Patriots. It's

kind of like the Rams. I expect this to be a little bit of a bounce back effort for Dallas, and particularly offensively. And the Bills have a great defense, the ranked third in the NFL, but certainly some of that has been their schedule, which has been one of, if not the single easiest schedule in the NFL. And you've seen you know, they've got a great defense, but they're much better pass defense. They're a bit vulnerable against

the run. And even though Ezekiel Elliott has not torn it up of late, he's likely going to get going in this game. And I think they're going to be able to move the ball through the air too, give him the play action. They've given up the fewest sacks in the NFL, even with Amari Cooper matched up against Tradavius Right. Cooper is coming off a game where he was shut out. You know he's going to get at least a little bit more there. And Michael Gallup is

playing well as well. And they're even getting Rendal Cobb involved. So the Cowboys know this game they obviously play on Thanksgiving every year. The quick turnaround, I think they'll be ready to go, But I also expect Buffalo to be able to score two. They're featuring Devin Singletary a bit more. They just gashed a very strong Denver run defense. On the ground, Josh Allen is really able to extend plays.

But in particular, you know, even though you've got, you know, two teams that are going to run the ball a lot. So that's usually good for the under because it takes up you know, longer drives, takes up clock. But the Cowboys generally are pretty they play fast, and really, when I was looking at the Bills last week, they really played up tempo. They went no huddle a ton. I mean it was something like, you know, forty percent of the time close to that. They ran seventy three plays

last week. I think that's what they're going to try to come out and do. Their offense looked better against a tough defense, so I expect them to also try to play fast, which again to me, strikes me as something that's going to lean towards the over. So you know, in the end, the total strending up here, as I mentioned it, I looked at it. It was forty five and a half at one point. I got it when it

was forty six. It's now at forty seven on our Consentuve ods, so I could see the under I think the under looked quote unquote like the sharp play given all the reasons I discussed, But I'm going to go over here with forty seven for the Bills and the Cowboys. Yeah.

they maybe are trying to get in early. There might be a little bit of a buy back, you know, if it hits forty seven and a half, they might come back on the under, try to middle it, and this line might drop back down by kickoff to forty seven to forty six and a half. But I think you have to be careful overreacting to Buffalo's defensive numbers. They might allow just sixteen points a game, but they haven't faced many offenses like Dallas. This is a good

cowboy offense. They can both run and throw the ball. They average eight and a half yards of pass twenty seven points a game. They're averaging over thirty points per game at home this season, so I think it could be a high scoring game. Actually it wouldn't shock me. And yeah, both teams run the ball, but as you said, they do it officially, they do a kind of uptempo. I love the uptempo analogy. It's something I use a tremendous amount in college and pro basketball and handicapping totals.

We don't talk about it as much in football, but in the modern you no spread offenses. It is a legitimate handicapping factor. And once again, this is kind of like that San Francisco Baltimore total. You know that I use the over. You've got one really good defensive team like San Francisco Buffalo of a really good offensive team Alish or Baltimore, and because of that, the odds makers kind of have to put the total in the middle there. One of those teams is going to dictate their preferred

style of play. I think it'll be Baltimore at home, and you know you're betting it'll probably be Dallas at home. And in general, the home team does dictate the way they want the game to go.

one of my favorite players. It's great to watch him succeed right now. And Josh Allen is able to when you get pressure on him because of his legs, is able to extend drive. So I think they're going to play fast. I think there's gonna be a lot of points, so I'll take the over. Let's move on to your third pick here. What do you got?

across the board. Ten another very key number about four to five percent of the time, just like seven, it's going to land on ten. So I do think at ten or more here we're starting to get some value with the Oakland Raiders. This is a rematch from earlier this season. I always like to take good sized big divisional dogs in rematches, especially if they've lost. They're coming off a terrible show in last week against the Jets.

By the way, I had a best bet on the New York Jets as the home dog against the Raiders from my clients, so that game did not surprise me. Now the thirty four to three win did surprise me. That was a pleasant surprise. But I still think because of that, this line's been inflated. Now. Also, Kansas City starting to get a little healthier, but they've alternated wins or losses going all the way back to early October.

And this is still a team that's just three and four straight up their last seven games, both against the spread and outright, so they have not been crushing it like they did last year. I just think this is an inflated line here. You look at the Oakland They're capable of moving the ball. You know, they put up twenty four points straight against Chicago Green Bay in Houston, then they put up thirty one and twenty six against Detroit and the Chargers, and then the last two weeks

only seventeen and three all of a sudden. I think this is a little bit of an overreaction by the Betty market, and I think Oakland is more likely to return to that twenty twenty five point average this week against the mediocre Kansas City defense.

did they do it? You know that game against the Colts. I think maybe the game against Texans. They ran the ball, they controlled the game, They kept Mahomes off the field. And Mahomes is not, you know, looking quite as good as he did before the injury for obvious reasons. But you know, this game unlike the Jets game, because the Jets were able to stop the run. They stopped really

what the Raiders did. I feel like in this game, the Chiefs cannot stop the run, and that is where the Raiders are going to be able to not only move the ball, but keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and be able to keep the game close. So look, betting against Patrick Mahomes is something that you know, I've struggled to do, you know, at least in his prime, because it was too scary frankly when I was involved in it. But overall, so I don't think I'm going

to get in on it. But I do agree that if I were to pick a side, it would be the Raiders getting ten for basically all the reasons you described, So I do like the pick.

forty one and a half. I think you're gonna probably see this line maybe crew up to forty two forty two and a half with Andy Dalton back in, and I think there's a good reason for it. Look, the Jets offense right now is clicking. It's been soft matchups, but they've scored exactly thirty four points in each of their last three games. That's against the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders, soft matchups. But they've got another one here against the Bengals.

In addition the simple fact that Sam Darnold is growing as a quarterback, There's just some talented playmakers and it's really that none of those teams get pressure consistently on the quarterback. That's the key for Donald, who stands behind a terrible offensive line and so long as he isn't consistently dealing with defenders in the space, he can make plays and put up points. And the Bengals have sixteen sacks on the season. That's second worst in the NFL.

They're head of only the Dolphins. They're third worst in defensive DVOA. There's absolutely no reason why the Jets should struggle to put up points here. And look, the Jets are solid upfront. Defensive they have Jamal Adams, one of the best safeties in the game. Since they've switched at cornerback, they've been playing better. Brian Poole has had actually a nice season out of the slot and their fifth in defensive DVOA. But the Bengals are at least borderline competent offensively.

So long as Andy Dalton is under center, he knows how to utilize Tyler Boyd. Joe Mixon has been getting plenty of work lately, which he really wasn't getting early. On forty Glenn came back, which helps their offensive line. I haven't seen anything on the practice reports with aj Green, but you know, you got to get this feeling like Green. I'm not coming back with Ryan Finley, but all right, you throw Dalton back there, maybe he'll try to play.

Even if he doesn't, though, I think that the Bengals are going to be able to put up at least some points right now, I don't think the Jets defense is quite as good as it has looked lately. Not a crazy amount of points, but certainly some points. And with the Jets being able to put up points, I feel comfortable here that they're going to shoot over forty one a half, which again is a fairly low over under.

combinations that get you there. So definitely shop around get that over forty one in this one. If you're looking at the over I do think forty one and a half forty two by Sundays be what the number is, So I'd play it sooner than later. And yeah, I kind of wait for the Bengals to have a breakout game. You know, they've been so terrible this year. Everyone thought the Dolphins were the worst team in the modern NFL history, and they've already won two games. You know, the Redskins

looked like they were the worst team. They won their second game last week. The Jets were actually in the playoff list now if you look at teams in the hunt, the Jets are actually listed now despite being just four and seven. But they are a better team healthy, and that's one of the reasons I liked the Jets last week. Is the best bet for my clients against Oakland was I do feel like they're flying a bit under the radar now that Darnold is healthy and able to play

his level. Thirty four points three straight games. You mentioned the three week opponents they've played. This is the weakest yet, so I see no reason why it wouldn't continue. And I think the key here is of Cincinnati can get the points. We know they allow points. They give up thirty two a game at home. The problem is they only average sixteen at home, only fourteen and a half overall. But I'm not stilling this Jets defense. They give up over twenty six and a half away. Yeah, it's a

low total forty one. He almost automatically have to look at the over and I think he brought up some very good reasons to do so.

I'll put that out there. They can definitely win that game. But they've got to be going for it at this point because otherwise there's really no reason to turn back to Andy Dalton because he's not the quarterback in the future. I'm sure they're going to be drafting a quarterback this year. So I think they want this win. I think they're going to do whatever they can to get it, which I think means putting up points. All right, let's recap here, Steve.

You've got the hacker's lank six and a half to the Giants, the forty nine Ers and Ravens over forty seven, and the Raiders getting ten from the Chiefs. I'll take the Rams lank three to the Cardinals, the Bills and Cowboys over forty seven now, and the Jets and the Bengals over forty one and a half. I believe, although, yeah, forty one and a half. I'm sorry. All right. Before we move on, let's talk about bet MGM and the bet mgm Sports app because you're about to win some

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full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Steve, let's move on to it's a trap where we list the line we are avoiding this weekend. What do you have?

They just blew out a good Packers team on Sunday night primetime football. Normally you lose line value because of that. But then the Ravens did them one better and they blew out the Rams on Monday night, which is more recent, and then everybody's memory, the betting public saw what they did to the Patriots a few weeks ago. So now you've got the Ravens at minus sixth. It's like Ohio

State and college football. You're not going to get any value with Baltimore going forward until they lose at some point. By the way, Ohio State's failed to cover each of the last two weeks despite winning. Still who that doesn't mean you jumped in on the forty nine Ers either. This is a team that's coming off that huge win. Now I'll have to travel cross country and have the disadvantage of playing a one o'clock Eastern, which is a

ten am Pacific kickoff on their body clocks. And also, as I referenced, one of the reasons I like the over and I'm staying away from the side is because the forty nine Ers defense has been great this year, but that's against the past. They're actually a below average rush defense statistically four point seven yards per rush allowed, and now they're facing a mobile quarterback like they have not seen all season. I'd be very careful with this side.

I think it's a bad matchup for San Francisco, but I think there's no value right now with Baltimore in the near future.

This is just not a line I'm going anywhere near. I'm shocked it's six, by the way. I mean, as much as I six just strikes me as crazy inflated. But I can't bring myself to bet against Lamar Jackson at this point. But it's certainly something that's crazy. But I like that you took it. It was gonna be mine too. I think I'll pivot a little bit and the game that I'm avoiding because again I've looked at this game and I you know, originally I wanted to take it, but I couldn't get there. And that's the

Patriots laying three to the Texans in Houston. Look this game, when you look at the Patriots, they're just their defense is great, but their offense it's really not working right now. I understand that the game against Dallas was in the terrible weather, but it's really not going anywhere. Brady is not playing particularly well. They struggle to run the ball, as I have all season long, since James Devlin went out. They're really just not able to put up a ton

of points. I don't you know, Brady was on the injury report with an elbow injury. That's you know, he used to always be on the injury report, but I hadn't heard of that before. So he may be a little banged up. He's been getting hit quite a bit, you know. And the Texans right now, you know, look they're off the many bye, Will Fuller is healthy. You know, they're playing overall. They came off the big win pretty well. If there's one thing that the Patriots defense kind of

struggles with a little bit, it's mobile quarterbacks. You saw against Lamar Jackson. Although that's not really something that you can hold against any defense, frankly, but because they play so much, man, you know, their cornerbacks have their backs turned to it so the mobile quarterbacks like Watson are able to get out. But in the end, the coaching difference in the two teams. I mean, Bill O'Brien is just not somebody that I can feel comfortable backing, particularly

against Bill Belichick. So at this game on Sunday Night Football, the crowd's going to be crazy. It's just something where I kind of feel like, if I'm forced to pick a side, I see the value in the Texans personally, but it's not something where I'm going to be willing to go ahead and bet against Bill Belichick. So I'm avoiding the Patriots laying three to the Texans. I wanted your thoughts on that line.

to play three minus one twenty. If you like Houston, you play plus three and a half even it is worth the twenty cent gap. In fact, it's worth about twenty five to thirty cents. Historically, it's the one time it's worth paying a little extra. And if you've noticed, most sports books know this, and they make you charge. They charge you at least like thirty cents because buying points in general is a sucker play you don't normally

want to do. They don't want to move the line a half a point in lay minus one twenty instead of minus one ten. But in this situation, you are better off laying a little extra if it's only a twenty cent gap. So yeah, we'll see where this line settles. And I think that reason alone, you know, Dan has reason to stay away from this game at least right now until Sunday night.

ane I you'll come to with. If it's three and a half, I'll bite the bullet and take the Texans. But at three it's not something that I want to go. Okay, you and I are both avoiding the Ravens lank six to the forty nine ers, and I'm going to avoid the Patriots laying three to the Texans. So before we get to our final segment, I want to mind everyone about our giveaway. It's assigned Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet. The contest is running through November thirty, so you have

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auction dot com. All right, Steve. We also did not get a chance to talk about our top props, so legitimately, if you take mine, I'm just gonna jump on it with you. So go ahead, and and what do you got here?

a consensus. The one I'm gonna stay away from, by the way, is, you know, obviously, uh Lamar Jackson rushing yards over is very tempting for me because San Francisco's run defense has been below average, as I've referenced several times, and also the fact they haven't seen a quarterback like that.

But I'm staying away from Baltimore in general, because they're so public right now, I'd like to normally look for unders with props because if a player gets injured, I'm not wishing an injury, but if a player gets injured, you know, obviously that helps the under and that's something that just could be an additional bonus for you. Plus the public normally plays the over. With that said, I'm going to use an over, and I like Aaron Rodgers

total passing yards over the total. It goes hand in hand with the side selection I used at the top of the show. I think Green Bay is flying a little bit under the radar right now after that terrible performance on Sunday night offensively when they only put up eight points and overall as a team they only threw the ball for eighty one passing yards. But as I've said several times, San Francisco's pass defense has been the best in the NFL this year, it was a bad

matchup for the Packers. They are now taken on which maybe is the worst pass defense at least in the NFC, maybe the whole NFL. Giants give up sixty eight percent completions, they give up eight point one yards per pass and just look at the yardage they've given up recently. And

what's incredible about this, they've lost seven straight games. You know, normally teams run the ball when they have the lead, and the Giants you think wouldn't be thrown on as much two hundred and seventy two eighteen, two fifty seven, three sixteen. The last four weeks they did hold Arizona at eighty nine, still lost the game, but the two weeks before that New England and Minnesota three thirteen and

two seventy nine allowed. And now they're taking on as good of any quarterback in the league and Aaron Rodgers. So I'd like the Aaron Rodgers props over specifically, say over to total passing yards.

which because look, if you've been listening to it. Almost always I'm taking it over and it's always that kind of a garden variety line. That is because when we record, you know, prop bets generally don't drop till closer to

game time. And it's funny because the vast majority of the props I'm actually able to play once they come out on Saturday or even Sunday morning are unders because that's generally when I project players, which you know, I also do fantasy, so I'm projecting players I'm able to really go there. So with these, You're right, it's a little more difficult because you've always got to go over. And again, we I use points bet because that's really the one of the few that has it out there.

So for me, I'm going to take DJ Shark over one hundred yards receiving against the Bucks. That's a plus one sixty right now. Chark and pretty much all the Jaguars receivers had a terrible day against the Titans, but he'd seen at least nine targets in each of his three previous games. I expect him to reach that number again in a game where the Jaguars are certainly going to need points. I mean that Bucks hit the over

on pretty much every one of their games. The Bucks have an incredibly strong run defense, as most betters now at this point, but an abysmal pass defense. Dede. Westbrook, Chris Conley, They're both going to factor in, But in the end, I think realistically it's gonna be Chark. He's gonna have by far dominate the targets. I think he's gonna have a ton of receiving yards. So at plus one sixty, I think the odds are good enough for me. All right, that is gonna do it for today's show.

Thanks for joining me, Steve. Remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.

my personal best bets for this weekend. Steve at Pro sports Info dot com just mentioned the show for a free best bet with analysis. Steve at prosportsinfo dot com.

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Good luck with your wagers this weekend and on Thanksgiving everyone, We'll be back breaking down the early lines for week fourteen on Monday,