Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. It is time to break down some of our favorite and our least favorite bets for the Week twelve NFL Slate. And with me to talk about it all is Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs dot com and a writer and podcaster over at four for four dot com. You can find him on Twitter at Greg Sauce. Greg. How's it going good?
Dan? How are you?
Man?
I'm doing great.
I'm doing really well. Now if I recall, we didn't do that great on our first show. Is that right? Am I making that up?
I find you are correct?
Week?
You are correct. But I'm coming off a really hot Week eleven where I nailed most of my picks. So I'm just wincing an anticipation of the swing back at this point.
Oh boy, Well, hopefully we can keep the good times going. I also had a really good week. And again, guys, Greg is a great guy to have on this show, because although he had a rough way the time we recorded several weeks ago, at this point he is the thirteenth most accurate expert over at bettingpros dot com. So I have a feeling that today is going to be a good one. Now, as usual, on our second show of the week, we are going to be breaking down
three of our favorite bets of the week. We'll give you a bet to avoid, and then we're going to give you one prop bet that we're interested in. So before we get into it, let's, as always, take a very quick look at what happened last week during our pick show. I hit on the Bears in the Rams under thirty nine and a half, the Bills laying six and a half to the Dolphins, and Joe Mixon going over seventy five rushing yards for my top prop. My only miss was on the Raiders and the Bengals over
forty nine, which they did not come close to. Our guest Andrew Kayley, had a good week two. He hit on the Jets getting one and a half from the Redskins, the Pats length three and a half to the Eagles, and Josh Jacob's going over one hundred yards rushing. His only miss was on the Chiefs and the Chargers over fifty two, which like my bet did not come close, So we've got some work to do here, Greg, But
as I said, we're both coming off good weeks. Greg's one of the most accurate experts as a whole on the year, so I think it's going to be good. Let's get started here with our pick six, where will each list three of our best bets for the weekend. Once you start us off.
I'm going with the Ravens minus three at Los Angeles. And I want to kind of start off this with a bit of a thought experiment, like, Dan, what is your initial consideration for picking a game almost before you see the line? And I know for me, I look, the first question I asked myself is who I would expect to win outright without the context of the spread, without any of that stuff. And this kind of this approach stems from the thin slicing method that was popularized
by Malcolm Gladwell's book Blink. If you strip away the minutia and you trust your intuition, your instinct, got feeling, whatever you want to call it, you're left with that first impression. And you might have heard, you know, when you're training for multiple choice tests when you were a kid, the first instinct you have is usually correct, and I think that's the way I'm looking at this line for Baltimore.
Once I have that baseline read of who I think is going to win a given matchup, Like I think the Ravens are a better team than the Rams, so I'm going to pick them here, then I think you can start to work backward and test it against the context of the matchup. You know who's home, who's away? Does that matter? How do the recent injuries impact the matchup?
What's the spread of the matchup? And the smaller the spread, the more likely I am to trust in that initial who will win judgment and treat the game like a pick them when I ultimately make my selection. So in the case of Rams Ravens, the line is small enough that I'm pretty confident just taking Baltimore. They're simply the
better team right now. They rank second in DVA and weighted DVA, the Rams ranked twelfth and DVA fourteenth and waited DVA and those weighted numbers from Football Outsiders put more emphasis on recent play, So that tells us that the Rams are actually worse in recent weeks than they have been on the season. And if you've been watching the Rams. This should come as no surprise, right. LA's primary strength at this point is on defense, where they
rank eighth in DVA. The Rams are particularly strong along the defensive line, where Aaron Donald's impact cannot be understated. He is an amazing player. But the Ravens running game should be able to fight back in the trenches thanks to an offensive line that ranks fifth and justin lineyards. And meanwhile, that Rams pass rush I think is going to be mitigated by Lamar Jackson's otherworldly ability to escape pressure, run for first downs, and more all that good stuff.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense is only getting better. They ranked tenth in defensive DVA on the season, but eighth and waited DVA. Jared Goff is typically better at home, but considering all the injuries his offenses dealing with along the line and a wide receiver, I just don't really see a phase of the game in this matchup where the Rams have an advantage. So give me the Ravens minus three on the road.
Yeah, if you weren't taking this, this would definitely be my number one pick. We talked about it on Monday Show where we were just crazy Now, look, I get it. The look ahead line here was a pick em right, so it's moved three points off that. That's a pretty significant move from the look ahead line. I get it, but I don't understand any Like I'm trying to play this game out in my head a million different ways, it's really difficult for me to see a scenario where
the Ravens obviously not only win but also covered. They are just by far the superior team right now. They are clicking on all cylinders absolutely. Lamar Jackson is certainly either the MVP, maybe the runner up to Christian McCaffrey or Russell Wilson, but probably the MVP. He's playing at an absolutely elite level. And you hit on it is that the defense really wasn't that great to start, and you know, I get that when they lost Brandon Williams,
they rush defense wasn't that great. They had injuries at cornerback, but they're pretty much getting healthy everywhere and they're playing exceptionally well. And on the other side of the ball, the Rams are just look at defense, you mentioned it. I mean, they're solid, for sure, but it's nothing Lamar
Jackson can't beat. But look their offensive line right now is a joke, and it wasn't good to begin the year right even when they were all healthy, but they have dealt with so many injuries coming in there they you know, and golf is you know, we know what
Jared Goff is right now. You've you know, it's been demonstrated here over the last I don't know, fourteen games or something like that, is that if you get sure on him and he doesn't have the time to let the play develop, he is just not able to kind of improvise and hit the receivers that are also injuries. I don't know what's going on, by the way, with Robert Woods. I know he missed for personal reasons, but he hasn't practiced yet this week. There's talk that Brndon
Cooks is supposed to come back. But I mean, either way, this does not seem like a game that's going to be anywhere close at this point. And it's not like the Rams have some significant home field advantage, right It's just not like that at this point. So for me, this definitely would have been my best pick of the week if you didn't take it, and just looking you know, both at the number of bets and the amount of money that's coming in it is overwhelmingly on the Ravens.
And if you look at the bettingpros dot com break down, eighty five percent of our experts are taking Baltimore. And if you look at the top twenty percent the most accurate experts, ninety two percent of them are taking Baltimore. So again, this is game. The one thing I'll ask is do you get worried when you see a line like this? Because, I mean, the way you talked about it kind of looks like we're looking at the game
the same way. Do you get a little worried that essentially, even after they moved it to three, because it's been at three since I think Monday. When we looked at it Monday again to look ahead, line was pick them, but they opened it at three. There's a ton of money coming in still in Baltimore, but it hasn't moved yet. Does that ever? Do you ever look at a line and say, man, this seems too good to be true, maybe I'm missing something and get a little skittish in that area.
I am nervous when that happens. I'm also nervous when so many people seem to be having the same thought as me on a pick. But at the same time, this is just one of those matchups where, like I said, my initial reaction is that the Ravens are a significantly better team and they're healthier, Like, all this stuff is adding up to a point where I just wouldn't feel comfortable taking the Rams. I'm not even sure where the line would have to be for me to feel really
queasy about it. But again, because three is essentially it's almost to pick them right. It's not quite, but it's close enough for teams that are this disparate in my mind that I just I don't know where the line would have to be for me to feel weird about it. But at this point, no, I'm not too worried.
Now. I'm one hundred percent with you, and I keep you know, occasionally I'll look at it, especially, you know, whenever you get a bet that so much of the public is back, and you get a little nervous because you know, you never really want to be shaded with the public. But like this past week, you know, the books all took a beating this past week, so sometimes you know, you you go with the Pats or you go with the Saints. To cover the spread and sometimes
it works out. So I'm in total agreement with you on that one. For my first pick again, it's it's I'm going to call this the Ravens light. I don't necessarily know if you're gonna agree, but for me, I feel really really confident in this one, and that is even though they're on the road, the Seahawks getting one and a half from the Eagles. I mentioned this on a Monday show that this struck me as one of
my favorite lines of the week. I don't feel any differently as I've analyzed it as the week has gone on. I'm really not sure of the faith that the books continue to place in the Eagles here. I mean, I get that they easily could have won the game against the Pats last week, but since they won the Super Bowl, they've essentially been a mediocre team, and that's exactly what they are this year. I get that they've dealt with an incredible amount of injuries like all year long, right,
and they played the Pats hard. As I said, they easily could have won that game, but they just lack the firepower on offense, largely because of their problems at the receiver position. To Shan Jackson has effectively missed the entire season, and that's a huge deal because his presence is as the field stretcher was really going to open things off for Carson Wentz. Alshram Jeffrey is still battling injuries. I think he's still only doing individual drills, so I'm
not expecting him to play in this week. Nelson Aguiler continues to struggle doing the only thing that a wide receiver is supposed to be able to do, and that has catched the ball. The receivers rank last in the league in yards, second to last and catches, and second to last in yards per catch. They've got Zach Ertz and Dallas Goddard. There's still threats Jordan Howard can run the ball effectively if he plays, but he missed last week. It's unclear if he's going to be back this week.
I think he may have been limited right now. Now they've got Lane Johnson in the concussion protocol that's going to hit on their offensive line. The Seahawks defense isn't overly impressive by any means, but Jadavian Clowney is really starting to play extremely well, and I don't think you need to be an elite defense to be able to slow down the Eagles, who just really lack that big play threat. And on the other side of the ball, the Eagles look they're coming off a bye. It sounds
like Tyler Lockett's gonna be able to play. I'm a little nervous here because again, he did not practice today. We're recording this on Wednesday. He did not practice today. Pete Carroll is expressing optimism that he's going to be able to play, so I'm penciling him in. Josh Gordon gets another week to get acclimated. And really it's Russell Wilson. I mean, he's playing at an absolutely elite level, similar to Lamar Jackson. The Eagles cannot stop the pass. They
do have a good run defense. They allow the fourth fewest rushing yards per game. That's impressive. Maybe they can slow down Chris Carson and they may get Nigel Braden back, so that's gonna help their defense overall. But really it's about Russell Wilson and what he's able to do. I get, you know, it's a West Coast team traveling east, but
really they're coming off a bye. Under Pete Carroll, they won five of their last six games off a bye, including the last three, they allowed just seventeen and a half points per game coming off of bye. So look, if Lockett doesn't play in this one, I like it a little less. But to me, again, sort of the process that you analyzed, who would I expect to win the Seahawks versus the Eagles. It's a little difficult because you know, you don't think of the Seahawks really, they're
not a great team. It's mostly Russell Wilson. But still I would expect. I'd expect the Seahawks to win here. And so when you've got that, even though they're on the road, it's essentially a pick up. I mean under three for sure. So for me, I'm gonna go with the Seahawks. And I feel pretty good about this one.
This wasn't one of my best bets, but I'm in complete agreement with you here. This is one of the picks I wrote up in my rankings article for the week, and I love the Seahawks as well. They rank pretty equally if you look at VOA, and in both cases, the Seahawks rank better both in seasonal DVA and way
to DVA. They're getting points, they have an MVP candidate in Russell Wilson, and even if the Eagles are able to stop the running game Chris Carson and the Seahawks running game, that might just incentivize the Seahawks to do what they should be doing and using Russell Wilson to throw the ball more Like what am I missing here? I'm totally with you. The part about this matchup that I find really fascinating is the forty eight point over under.
I don't know where to go with that. I think it's probably a stay away, but do you have a good read one way or the other, because it seems like both these two teams want to funnel the opposing offense to throw the ball as opposed to run the ball, and that would lead me to expect a higher total at the end of the game. But I just don't know if that's the mindset of these two teams either,
is to try to run it up like that. I want to take the under, but then I looked at some of the consensus stuff on betting pros and it looks like a lot more people are on the over, and I'm not sure if I agree with that. Where do you fall on the over? Under in this game.
It's a stay away from me, and pretty much for the reasons that you mentioned, I'm not going to be picking it on the betting pros dot Com consensus picks or anything like that. I agree with you. This game sort of funnels, I think when you look at it towards the over right, because you expect neither team is going to have particular success running the ball. They're both going to have to pass. But I don't really expect the Eagles at this point to be able to put
up significant points. It's just I don't have faith in their offense going in, largely because of the injuries. I don't expect as On Jeffrey to play in this one. That's a huge I mean, you've got whether or not you want to call Jordan Matthews or you want to call Nelson Aguil or your number one wide receiver, it doesn't matter. That should tell you all you need to know about the fact that those are the two guys
in contentionent. So I don't really have that much faith in the Eagles being able to put up that many points. And the Eagles defense, to be fair, is improving a little bit. They're getting a little bit healthier in the secondary. They played well against the Pats last week, So it's not though a game I feel like it does funnel sort of towards the over, but it's not a game where I feel particularly confident that it would get there. So for me, it's kind of a stay away at
that number. All right, let's move on to your second pick over here? What do you got for number two?
So I'm going to take the Jets plus three at home against the Raiders. And this pick might seem to fly in the face of that clad Willian approach I outlined for the Ravens pick, because at a base level, I would expect the Raiders to win this game out right, but in this case, it's one where the extra context alters my perception of the matchup a little bit. The warm Weather Raiders are favored, but they're traveling east for
an early start in gold Weather. They're one in three in road games already this season, and could slash should be looking ahead to a more important road game next week against their divisional rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. So if you're the type of person who believes in trap games, this one fits the bill. Regardless, there are some non
narrative reasons to like the Jets as well. With their second ranked rush defense by DVOA and top ranked defensive line by justin lineyards, New York should be able to disrupt the identity Oakland is built around Josh Jacobs, and on offense, Sam Darnold and company will have the pleasure of facing a Raiders team that ranks twenty third and passing DVA or passing defense DVA while allowing the seventh most passing yards per game and the third most passing
touchdowns per game. Derek Carr is really going to have to step up in a significant way for the Raiders to cover. And I'm not a Derek Carr believer, so give me the points with the Jets.
I mean, I think it's brave because as a Jets fan, I fear trusting the Jets, and I look, I was on them a lot earlier in this season after that
Cowboys game, who where I backed them as well. Certainly they got crushed against the Patriots next week get crushed against the Jaguars, So I am a little gunshy, but yeah, this is a line where when I looked at it on Monday, I said, yikes, it kind of feels like this line needs to be a little bit higher here, like more like the Raiders laying four and a half something like that. But for the reasons that you broke down I Hack, this game kind of sets up well
for the Jets. Like, forget about the fact that Oakland is coming east and their history, they don't usually play well when they need to come east. But essentially, the strength of the Raiders game offensively is their run game. That's the one thing that the Jets can really attack, and they don't have the wide receivers. You know, Jamal Adams is great, but for the most part, the secondary
for the Jets really struggles with cornerbacks are subpar. But you know, the thing about the Raiders is they don't really have those elite wide receivers that could take advantage of it. Tyrell Williams is fine, but he's battling planter fasci itis as he goes through Hunter Renfros Okay, Zay Jones isn't really doing anything. Darren Waller is gonna present
a little bit of a problem. But again, on the other side, as you mentioned, really the big thing for the Jets is that the offensive line is atrocious, But when you're going up against an oak team that really struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, I think this is an area that the Jets can exploit. So I do expect the game to be close. I'm not sure whether or not the Jets are going to win, but certainly the quote unquote trap game. That is what this says.
And I will say that the public is backing the Raiders as you might expect, but the money is backing the Jets, which basically shows you. Usually it's a little early to make the conclusion, but it's usually a sign that sharpbetters are backing the Jets. And when you look again at our breakdown at bettingpros dot com, seventy percent are backing the Jets over Oakland. So it looks like you've got a lot of support with that bet. Again, something that I don't It's not one of the ones
that I'm super excited about. If I'm forced to pick a side, I'll go with the Jets. But I certainly get everywhere that you're coming from.
Yeah, so your bias against the Jets as a Jets fan is kind of mirrored by my bias against the Raiders. I'm a Bay Area guy. I'm not necessarily a Raiders fan, but they're one of the teams that's always on TV when I was growing up, and even up until this past season. I recently moved, but yeah, when I was out there, I saw a lot of Derek Carr and I'm just not believer it's not happening.
Well, it's a travesty then that you and I are not going to this game together. But next time they play, we'll make sure we'll make it a date. I'm gonna go to my second one, which Greg, I can almost guarantee you you are not going to like. So I'll put that out there right now. Now, I am going to admit that I usually when I know we're having a podcast, I usually check the lines. I don't know
four hours in advance. I make a couple of notes, I make sure what I want to do, and this one, the line has moved since I made the pick, and I'm still in not in my favor either, So I'm still going to go with it, but I don't like it quite as much. And that is the forty nine Ers and the Packers now over forty seven and a half. It was over forty six and a half at the time, I want to go with it. So this is going to be an exciting game. I think it's going to
be high scoring. The forty nine Ers are second in scoring offense at twenty nine and a half points per game. The Packers are ninth with twenty five points per game. Both offenses are playing well right now. There are certainly question marks for the forty nine Ers in terms of their skill players and injury. It is unclear right now if George Kittle is going to make it back for this game. Emmanuel Sanders has the last two games with injuries, although last I heard he was not on the injury report.
Matt Breedom may still be out. But really, Kyle Shanahan's system is effective enough that they're able to survive even without them. And really I think it's because, oddly enough, the key to their offense is really Kyle Yushchak, who's presence there it kind of transforms the unit. Deebo Samuel also battling a little bit of injury, but I do expect him to play. He's stepping up, developing into a
reliable wide receiver. So they have enough on offense to get by in their running game, which had been extremely effective early on, has not been great over the last few games. I mean Tevin Coleman in particular, has not looked good. They've averaged seventy four rushing yards per game over their last three, but that is obviously where you
can attack the Packers defense on the ground. They allow one hundred and twenty seven rushing yards per game, and again, I think us check being in there is going to you know, against the team that's particularly weak against the run, is going to be able to help them. Now their defense is slipping as well. They've allowed twenty six points per game over their last three to two of those
games against the Cardinals. The Kwan Alexander injury really hurts their run defense, and that's obviously not a good thing when you're going up against the team with both Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams. D Ford also entered his hamstring, so he may need to miss this game. That's going to put some pressure on the pass rush. So I see Aaron Rodgers and company being able to put up now. I said when I started this, I said, Greg, You're
not going to like this pick. I think because they're going to say Dan everything you're saying sounds like it's going to lead to a lot of rushing attempts, and that is going to mean that it's going to eat up the clock and that favors the under That's a good point, Greg, I respect your opinion, but for me, I don't really expect this to be a game where they're just going to run, run, run the entire time.
I think that it's just going to be a game where both teams are going to have success using the run, and I think that that is going to set up a lot of play action passing and that they're going to be able to score relatively quickly when they need to. In other words, I don't expect this to be a game or they're just going to run down the field and have these long seven to eight minute drives. I think they're just going to be so effective that it's
going to open up the pass. The forty nine Ers don't have a cornerback that can hang with DeVonta Adams at this point, and the Packers' cornerbacks are a very good their defense. Pass defense has been slipping a little bit, but it's not as if the forty nine Ers have these dominant wide receivers. It's much more about their scheme. So I think both teams are going to be able to move the ball well. I think this is a
primetime game. I think both teams are going to get up for a Forty seven and a half is a little higher for me than I liked it more at forty six and a half. But my guest, Greg, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, is that you would have liked the under at forty six and a half.
Uh not necessarily. I probably would have just stayed away altogether. The Niners are my team. They're the one that I tend to be a little less rational about at times. So I don't have a good feeling for this game, and if anything, I would be looking at the Green Bay plus three side of this contest. But if I were going to argue against the over in this game one,
you already laid it out. The line has moved. I think it started even lower at forty six, then went to forty six and a half, and now is it what did you say, forty seven and a half?
Forty seven and a half.
So if you got in early, I think that it seems like you made the right call based upon the action that we've seen in that line movement. But I worry about the running aspect of the matchup, like you've talked about. If you look at situation neutral pace, the Niners ranked fourteenth of the league, but the Packers rank all the way down to twenty seventh. These teams like to slow it down a little bit. I'm a little worried about all the injuries that the Niners have. Deebo
Samuel is missing practice now, which isn't good. Manuel Sanders was already limited, and we still don't know about Kittle Matt Brada. I worry that the Niners might not have the playmakers to make this game or to hit the over in this game, even if they have Kyle yuscheck back. And I agree with you about yus check He is a very integral part and unheralded aspect of that offense. But I do like the over overall, but I would not bet it with any sort of confidence.
Yeah, and when you're looking at the amount of money that has come in on the over, it's what I'm seeing is ninety six percent of the money's coming on there.
But that is now, it's at forty seven and a half that's on ninety six at over forty seven and a half, which again at forty six and a half, I was like, okay, I like it, and it has been tread tog up forty seven and a half even I'm going to admit that I'm a little squeischy about it, but I still think in the end, you know, I expect Samuel to play and I expect Sanders to play. So as long as it isn't they've got nothing on offense.
I do think that they're going to be able to move the ball, and I think both teams are going to put up points. Here. Let's go on to your third pick. What do you got?
So my third pick is going to be Miami plus ten and a half at Cleveland. The Browns defensive lineman Olivier Vernon is questionable for this game, and Cleveland is already going to be missing Miles Garrett, Morgan Burnett, and Larry Ogunjobi from their defense. So I think Miami should have a much easier time generating offense than we might have expected, say a week ago. Maybe you want to play the narrative card and say that the incident in the Steelers Browns game last week will help galvin ie
and focus the Browns for their stretch run. And I can buy that argument for predicting a win, especially with a long week to prepare coming off Thursday night football, but predicting a win by eleven or more, I'm a little skeptical. So I'm taking the points here with Miami.
Yeah, I don't hate it by any means. It's not one of my best bets. But anytime you're getting double digits, you know, you just have to take a real close look at the underdog. The Browns just you know, I know that they've obviously you know, they're playing a little bit better. I do think that Kareem Hunt being back, and specifically, you know, their offense, when they're playing both Hunt and Chubb on the field at the same time, it really does seem to be working for them and
opening up what they want to do. But yeah, I don't think that they're really just you know, an overwhelming team who's going to be able to stomp all over the Dolphins. And again, you know, the Dolphins were one of the best covering teams you know, in the game for a while, and they certainly still have a little bit of juice they're playing hard. That tank for two of things probably gone at this point, you know, obviously
because tuus injury and factors. They've won two games anyway, They're never going to beat the Bengals for that pick regardless. So they're actually playing pretty hard despite all the injuries, despite the fact that klein Blage is probably one of the worst running backs in the history of football. So I really don't hate it here. I'm good to go with a spread that that's big, particularly with Garrett out, which is a big deal. I'll you know, just going to affect their pass rush.
So if I had to poke holes in my own pick here, the biggest fear I have is Odell Beckham Junior just going nuclear in this matchup because the targets have been there. He's getting fed week after week, and now he gets to face a Miami defense that has the worst pass rush in the league by adjusted lineyards or Byjustin zach rate and the worst passing defense by
DV away. So this is one of those situations that seems to line up really well for the passing game, and Baker Mayfield is, you know, maybe starting to turn it around if he connects on a couple of those deep balls to Odell Beckham Junior, maybe they're able just
to bury the Dolphins. But with that said, all those injuries on defense for the Browns really leads me to a point where I think that if the Browns get up, big Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be able to potentially back to recover this thing, even if things go completely haywire. So no matter how you slice it, I just like the way things are lining up for Miami mostly based upon those injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Browns.
That's funny that you mentioned Odell Beckham Junior, because I have a feeling we might be hearing about him again later in the show when we get to another segment about our top prop. But I will save it for them for my third pick, I'm going to be holding my nose really really tight and taking the Bengals. Getting six and a half from the Steelers. I said I was not going to do this anymore, that I was totally done backing the Bengals, but I every time they
think I'm out, they pull me back in. I wanted the seven at six and a half, I obviously like it a little less, but I just have a feeling that this is the first win. There's nothing good about the Bengals right now. I admit they are poorly coached, they are playing without energy, but they can still cover a point spread every once in a while. And really what it comes down to is, I'm not exactly sure how the Steelers are going to move the football in
this game. I mean, I'll give you that the Bengals defense is really terrible. They're by far the worst in the league against the run. They have absolutely no pass rush. They just lost ray kerk Pactrick. But still, if you and I went out there and we just grabbed nine other guys off the street, we really might be able to stop the Steelers offense. At this point, They're gonna be down James Connor, They're gonna be down Juju Smith, Schuster. Apparently Deante Johnson may play in this one. I hope,
I really hope not. In the end. I still kind of think they're gonna wind up holding them out. But there are positive reports today. So what's their offense like on a good day. I mean, they averaged three and a half yards per carry on the ground. Their receivers are averaging nine point nine yards per reception. The offense
has scored eighteen touchdowns in ten games, so great. Rather than James Connor, we'll roll with Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels instead of Juju Smith Schuster and probably Dante Johnson. Let's go with Dion Kin out there. And also let's lose our Pro Bowl center Markue's pouncy because of the three game suspension. So again, the Bengals are bad, but you're gonna see a lot of targets for Tyler Boyd in this one. After he complained Joe Mixon has been
getting a little more work. I think they'll be able to kind of smell a win here against the Steelers and keep it close with the under of thirty nine too, by the way, I mean, I'd totally be fine with that, but for now, I'm gonna hold my nails and go with the Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers.
Yeah, this is actually one of my picks as well. It's definitely not high enough confidence for me to call it a best bet, but I like the Bengals. The under I think is a better bet here. I think you kind of danced your way around that all of it to kind of close with that, and I think that's really the angle to shoot from here. If you look at the previous matchup, I think it finished twenty seven to three in favor of the Steelers, and that was a much more complete Steelers team at that point,
still only thirty points scored. So I would much prefer to take the under in this game rather than take the Bengals. But we're not talking about a prolific Pittsburgh team, and especially on offense like Mason Rudolph was so so bad last week, and that's all been kind of swippt under the rug based upon the incident at the end of the game. But the Steelers' average point differential is negative for the season, just barely. They've scored about twenty
points per game. They've given up about twenty points per game. Asking them to cover a touchdown spread is pretty steve considering all those injuries that you mentioned on the offensive side of the ball. I grant that it is against the Bengals, though, and so there is that risk there. I don't think you can take this with a ton of confidence, but I agree with you. I think the Bengals are the correct bet if you have to pick between these two teams against the spread, but I do
like the under bet more. Yeah.
No, I'm probably gonna be taking both of them this week because that is the type of game. And really, the one thing that worries me a little bit is the threat of a defensive score for the Steelers, who, again, since Minka Fitzpatrick has gotten there, they've been very very solid, and Ryan Finley's just not really getting it done, So that is something that worries me. But I'll probably go with both when we're taking them on the betting pros
dot Com consensus odds. So, all right, Greg, you're gonna take the Jets getting three from the Raiders, the Ravens giving three I believe to the Rams, and the Dolphins getting ten and a half from the Browns. Right, that's right.
I'm gonna take the Seahawks getting one and a half from the Eagles, the forty nine Ers and the Packers over forty seven and a half a little more reluctantly than I was at forty six and a half, and the Bengals getting six and a half from the Steelers, which I love and I'm told confident and so don't anybody worry about that. Now. Before we move on to our next segment, let's talk briefly about bet MGM and
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paid in free bets. You must be twenty one years or older. And although you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the state of New Jersey to place the sports bet, and certain restrictions apply. Visit betmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Greg, let's move on to it's a trap where we list the line we are avoiding. What do you got?
So the Giants in the Bay are each three and seven against the spread so far this year. So what's the opposite of an immovable force meets an unstoppable object? Right, That's what we're looking at here. If you're picking this game Giants at Bears, you're dancing with a Variansteavil. Both teams feature volatile quarterback situations. Daniel Jones is a turnover machine, while Chicago is stuck between Mitchell Trubisky and Chase Daniel. Can you take any of those passers with confidence? Because
I cannot. The only standout unit in this matchup is the Bears defense, which ranks fourth in DVA. If the line were three, or maybe three and a half, I'd feel a lot better about leaning on Chicago's defense. But good defenses help you win small, not big, So laying six and a half points here is a bit of a deal breaker. Maybe the Bears can turn a takeaway into points and cover, but counting on that sort of outcome is risky, if not just completely negligent with your
betting bankroll. I'm probably gonna take the Giants in pools where I'm forced to make a pick, but this game is ultimately just to stay away from me.
Yeah, I could not agree more. I mean, especially because I don't really know what you're going to be able to expect to see from the Bears defense, because if you're that defense, you've just got to be so beaten down right now, right, I mean, you play hard every single week, you put up a great effort against the Rams, and just you know, you know that there's no way that Mitchell Trubisky is going to be able to put up points other than that one random game against the Lions.
So you know, especially with that, you could see the Bears coming out and doing absolutely nothing at all, even though you know, again I do expect them to, as they have all season, have a solid defensive effort, but with where their psyche is right now, I would be just concerned about getting involved in any way in this game. So it's certainly so go ahead.
Yeah, So what do you think is the value of Chase Daniels starting for this team? Potentially because you've talked about the negative impact that Cherubisky has on this team psyche, and I totally agree with you. Like they looked completely defeated last week, and I'm wondering, if they have a new quarterback under center, somebody who's just a little bit more competent, a little bit more polished, does that inspire
the team to play harder at all? It does that matter, I think ultimately, because that sort of question, the answer to that is so unknowable. That's another reason why I would stay away from this game. But I'm curious what you think about that sort of situation where the team might be more motivated based upon a change at quarterback like this.
So I think it can't be a negative because I really think right now, with Trubisky back there, the defense has just got to be like, I mean, what are we going to do at this point? I mean, you know, it's like when the Ravens, when they were so elite, they were like, just just don't turn the ball over. You know, Trent Dilferd will take care of it for you.
We'll make sure we win. I could see it being sort of somewhere kind of like that, And with Daniel stepping in, I could see them basically being like, Okay, all right, we've got at least some hope. Perhaps, But I also think that it's possible that they're just done, man. I mean, they're obviously out of playoff contention essentially at
this point, They've got nothing going on. So it wouldn't be something where I'd be like, Okay, if Daniel's coming in, I feel a lot more confident that the defense is going to play better. I would just be like, maybe maybe it would be, but I really would have no real sense for it, you know what I'm saying?
Yeah, total, As.
For me, I'm out on the Bucks getting four and a half from the Falcons. Is this just am I just supposed to accept now that the Falcons, who were just this doormat of the NFL, suddenly have a dominant defensive unit like they've showed the last two games. I mean, they were the worst team in football. Then they trade Mohammed Sanu and they going a bye, and then suddenly everything's fixed and they're still almost surely down Austin Hooper,
they're probably down DeVonta Freeman. Still, I'm just not ready to trust them at this point because I don't feel like I have any idea who they actually are. And although I'm getting closer to feeling comfortable betting against the Bucks, I'm still not really there yet. They have two of the best receivers in the game. They can still stop
the run as well as anyone. It's really about Jameis Winston, and even if you feel like they might cover, the chances of this back breaking late in the game turnover are way to gate. It's just a game where I don't really trust that the Falcons are as good as they've shown, and I really don't trust the Bucks at all. So it's a game that I'm staying far away from.
I actually like the Buccaneers in this game. I think that this line is completely fueled by recency bias based upon those two big wins from Atlanta. If you look at the way this matchup stacks up, the Bucks are really lined up well to succeed against the Falcons defense. Like the Falcons defense strength has been against the run, but Tampa Bay has no interest in running the ball. And ultimately I feel like the line should be maybe three to three and a half. But at four and
a half, just the doors. The back door is going to be opened all day for Jamis Winston, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Cameron Braid, maybe rip O J. Howard, but This is one of those lines that I think is just too good to be true, almost or I don't know, it's I just have no confidence in the Falcons, and they've proven me wrong in the past two weeks. I bet against the both times, and that's not been great
for me. But I feel like the buck has to stop somewhere, and against a prolific passing offense like the Bucks, I think it might be this might be the week to kind of zig when everyone else isagging.
I totally get that, and I'm totally not by it because there's just no way that I'm going to feel comfortable enough going with Winston, who, by the way, remember was limping pretty heavily. I get that they're kind of, you know, poo pooing that injury, but he was limping pretty heavily at the end of last week. It's just not a game where I feel like they have a
way of breaking your heart. They've kind of done it all year, you know, they did it against the Seahawks that time, where it looked like an obvious cover at the very least of not a win for them, and they just find a way to blow. But I get it here. I'm not going to take issue with your analysis. It's more just something that I'm too terrified here to back the Bucks. So for you, you are avoiding the Bears laying six and a half to the Giants. I'm
avoiding the Falcons laying four and a half to the Bucks. Now, before we keep going, I want to remind everyone about our giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet. Our contest is running through November thirtieth. Here you can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send the screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.
And an entry into any contest gets you automatically entered into all future contests. So even if you're mad at Odell Beckham because he hasn't been very good this year, you'll probably want to be entered for our next giveaway. Anyway. Now, the Beckham helmet, all of our signed helmets, they come from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every single day, and when you go there, use our promo code betting Pros and
win a free five dollars voucher instantly. Just go to Pristine Auction dot com. That's p ri I s t i n E auction dot com. All right, Greg, let's finish up with our top prop where we each list our favorite prop. Bet go ahead.
So you mentioned not stepping on your Odell Beckham junior prop. I had to bite my tongue when you talked about how good Darren Waller was going to be against the Jets this week. And as much as I like the Jets to cover that spread, I'm taking Darren Waller to go over fifty receiving yards at minus two fifty. The Jets have allowed the fourth views receiving yards to tight ends. But here's a select list of the top tight ends they faced through eleven weeks. Week one, the Immortal Tommy Sweeney.
I don't even know if that's a real person. Thirty five yards. Week two, Demitrius Harris, week three, Ryan Izzo week seven, Ben Watson week eight, Set the Valve week ten, rtt Ellison, Week eleven, Jeremy Sprinkle and here are the top tens from and here are the top tight ends from the weeks that I skipped. Weeks five, zach Ertz, Dallas Goddard combined for sixty eight yards. Week six, Jason Witten fifty seven yards, Week nine, Mikaseeki ninety five yards.
So when the Jets have faced teams with more heavily targeted tight ends, those players haven't really had any issue hitting fifty plus yards. And because I already believe that the Jets are a good bet to cover and perhaps even win outright against the Raiders, that would mean the Raiders are going to have to throw in this game. That means more passes to Darren Waller, And so give me Waller plus fifty or more receiving yards at minus two to fifty.
Yeah, I mean minus two fifty is obviously big number, but oh yeah, he's going way over this one absolutely. By the way, the point that you made, I know this is a betting show, but you know you and I both also do fantasy analysis. So I will say the one thing is when you look at you know, points allowed to opposing tight ends and stuff like that, you should always consider who the opponents are. Because it's
the point you just made. You know, the Jets may look good on the surface, generally in fantasy and generally against opposing tight ends. But they obviously have not faced a murderer's row, and anytime they do face anyone of remote talent, if you want to call Micah sicky, that then they struggle against them. So Waller here, I completely agree. I think he's gonna have a big game. And it's fifty yards. I mean, that's something that I think you're
not gonna be too worried. You're not gonna be sweating over too much as the game goes along. I you know, I mentioned what it might be as you referenced, And for my top prop, I'm gonna go with Odell Beckham Junior over one hundred receiving yards at minus one oh five. So it's it's not the best odds, but this is the week Greg against the Dolphins. This is the week you basically laid it all out earlier. He's top one hundred yards just twice the entire season. It hasn't been pretty.
He's got twenty two targets, though over the last two games there's no Aan Howard anymore. The Browns are going to win this game pretty easily, I think, I mean, although they may not cover as you mentioned, you know, they want Beckham happy, they need them happy. They're trying to make them happy. Twenty two targets just nine receptions. Some of that is on Baker, but his efficiency is going to be much better in this game. This is just it. This is a get right game for Beckham.
They're a get right game for teams. There are get right games for players. This is one for the player, without question. I'm very confident in this one. Odell Beckham Junior going over one hundred receiving yards. I know you're with me, right, Oh.
I totally am. And we laid out the case earlier. My biggest fear would be that maybe he gets one big score earlier in the game and then the Dolphins just aren't able to do anything and the Browns lean on Nick Chubb gareem hunt for the rest of the game. I don't necessarily see that happening, though. I think that they, like you said, they want to make Beckham happy and this is the perfect matchup just to feed him over and over again. And that's my biggest fear with picking
Miami earlier. And I mean it's actually kind of a good hedge, to be honest.
Yeah, And really realistically. I think that you know, normally a team gets ahead and they just sort of rely on their run game. But you know they run Chubb heavily, and they rely generally heavily. I think this is a game where even if they get ahead, they're just gonna try to basically be like, let's work out some kinks here, right, we haven't been efficient with Beckham. Let's make them happy. Let's have a huge game. So for me, I think
he's going to sail over this. I really have very little hesitation about it for all the reasons we discussed. All Right, that's going to do it for today's show. Thanks again for joining me. Greg. Remind everyone where they can find more of you in your work.
So I'm on Twitter at Greg Sauce and you can find my work at two qbs dot com, where I do weekly fantasy rankings, picks against the Spread, the Games, the Gameplrobotics Spreadsheet, and I do the most accurate podcast once a week over at four for four dot com. On Mondays, I do a weekly recap and waver wire show for them, So come check it out. Follow me on Twitter and thanks for having me Dan.
Yeah, my pleasure again, Greg, is one of our most accurate experts over at bettingpros dot com. He is also an extremely accurate fantasy experts, so go ahead and follow him. You get a ton of great information. Before we go, I want to remind everyone about our sponsor bet MGM, where if you sign up using our promo code Harris, and you place a one dollar money line bet on the forty nine ers to beat the Packers, then you will win one hundred dollars in free bets if Jimmy
Garoppolo completes even one pass. That's pretty much free money. And don't forget to leave us a review on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com to be entered into our Odell Beckham Junior signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this weekend, we'll be back breaking down the early lines for week thirteen on Monday