Best NFL Week 11 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 27)

which was Aaron Jones over one hundred yards rushing. He had ninety three and only got thirteen carries. Meanwhile, our guest Adam Burke nailed the heck out of that Falcons, getting thirteen from the Saints game. He basically had that game completely dead to rights from the time he started analyzing it. He also hit on the Vikings getting three from the Cowboys and Lamar Jackson over fifty nine and

a half rushing yards. His only miss was on the Lions getting two and a half from the Bears, but to be fair, he had absolutely no reason to know that Jef driscoll would be starting that game. So you got some big shoes to fill here, Andrew, Are you ready.

spite of Gase, particularly because of their defense. They rank eleventh in the NFL in Football Outsiders DVA rankings and second against the run. And Bill Callahan insists on continuing to run the ball partly because Dwayne. He's committed to Dwayne Haskins being his quarterback and he doesn't really have any other choice. But they're really not even that good at running the football. They rank thirtieth and rushing offense Toboa, and they've only scored twenty one points with Haskins as

their quarterback. That's over a three game span, I believe. And for your Jets, I still have faith in Sam Darnold. He showed some life last week and his completion percentage has improved over the last three That offensive line is kind of terrible, but I think they still have the weapons here, and like I said, in spite of Gays, hopefully like they can get the ball to Crowder quickly in some quick slants and hopefully get Leavey on Bells

more touches out of the backfield. I think you could be effective in this game if they're passing the ball to them out of the backfield. He hasn't run the ball very well recently, I know that, but that's I think a product of that offensive line. But Washington is just really terrible, and I think they're gonna win this. I think they're gonna win the game out right, I just do. So give me the two and a half points, and I might even bet them on the money line this weekend.

where they come out and do absolutely nothing. The fact that it's moved to two and a half is a little surprising here, because everything I'm seeing shows that both the number of bets and the amount of money is coming in on the Jets. So the fact that it's

a reverse line move makes me a little worried. But this is what I said when we looked at it on Monday, right when we looked at Sean Green and I took a look at this line when it first opened, it was one and a half, and I was surprised by it because to me, it's a completely different story with Dwayne Haskins starting at the time we looked at it Monday, I think we had just found out about it, or perhaps we found out about it shortly after that game.

But Dwayne Haskins, at least to this point, has not shown anything to suggest that he is remotely capable of being an NFL quarterback at the moment. I'm not you know, I'm not giving an indict he's yeah, he's not ready yet. And I completely agree with the Redskins throwing him out there for the rest of the season because what else, I mean, at this point, who cares?

would also. I would take it at two and a half. I would take it at one and a half as well, and a bet on the money line I did as well. Yeah, a bet on the money line isn't isn't the worst idea because frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets win this game.

and they're vulnerable against the past. But again, I don't really see Haskins being able to take advantage of that. So I'm totally fine with the two and a half.

first pick. Now, I'm going to go with an over under here, which I've been having a little success, what's been on a nice run, and I'm sticking with the team that's kind of been my favorite to stick with the Unders and that's the Bears, and I'm going to take the Bears and the Rams under thirty nine and a half. So I've had the Bears under here a lot, and as I said, it's been a pretty solid bet, and I hit on it last week. And look, both these teams are solid on the under. They're both six

and three on the under on the season. And it's a pretty simple explanation. You know, you don't need to be an expert to really be able to figure it out. Both teams have poor offenses, and yes, the Rams have a poor offense, and both both teams have strong defenses, relatively strong defenses, not with the Bears on offense. Look, we know all the issues with Trubisky. He had a good game against the Lions, but you really can't bank

on that again, and even then they only scored twenty points. Anyway, he was like a hitter that got really hot, I think for a couple of drives, right, because he looked terrible to start off, then suddenly something clicked.

not going to be able to get it done. I mean, I frankly, I hope I'm pronouncing that right, because I really don't know too much about him. I don't know much either, Yeah, so that's saying enough. Plus Trey Burton is battling a thigh injury. He might even miss the game.

And look, I'm just I don't think that there's any way that the Bears are going to be able to stay in anything on offense, since they haven't been able to do it all season, and especially against a Rams defense that has really improved in recent weeks, particularly since they added Jalen Ramsey, who's probably just going to take on Alan Robinson and take away Trubisky's like lone reliable wide receiver. As a whole, the defense is playing better

lately Clay Matthews came back from his john jury. That gives them another added dimension. So who's going to score the points on the Rams side?

Their offensive line is on like their fourth backups. And remember last year when these two teams met, it was fifteen to six in favor of the Bears, right, and that was back when Goff had a decent offensive line. They intercepted him four times. Now, this Bear's defense isn't the same as that one, I will admit. I mean, Khalil Mack has not been particularly disruptive. Eddie Jackson hasn't done all that much. They're down to keep Hicks. They just lost Danny Trevathan. But still they're able to get

pressure on the quarterback. And that is really what causes Gough to be unable to put up points. So thirty nine and a half. Look, it's a low number, but honestly, absent a defensive scorer or two, I just don't see how these offenses against these defenses are going to be able to read to reach that number.

to two hundred and forty three yards. Like you said, the Bears get a lot of pressure, and once he starts moving his feet, he looked he rattles very easily and his accuracy is out the window. I can't disagree with this play raider. And also Mac also just loves I know you said he hasn't been as good this year, but he always just on primetime. You always see him much more effective in those games.

I think there really has to be a defensive score, which is always a possibility with these two offenses at this point. But for me, I'll stick with riding the under on both these teams, which has been pretty profitable. All right, let's go to your second pick here, what do you got next pick?

But they have to win two games and they'll be back in the super Bowl, So I'm not too stressed about it. Belichick loves losing a game. I think now these last couple of years to kind of motivate his guys a little more. And anytime you're gonna give Belichick an extra week off to prepare for another team, that's trouble for that team. They are fifteen and four coming out of a buy in the Belichick era, only ten to eight and one against the spread in those games.

The Eagles have a good rush defense, one of the better in the league, but that doesn't matter. The Patriots only run to, I don't know, trick people every once in a while that we're not gonna throw the ball one hundred times a game, and that's gonna set up well against an Eagle sect that just hasn't been very good. They have allowed at least one hundred yard receiver in

seven of their nine games this year. I think Edelman and Muhammed Sanu could have some big games here Edelman has been hauling a bunch of catches week after week. It seems like he's a guy that's another guy you can look at as a quick prop back to take his over on reception totals, because he just seems to go over every week. And he got an extra week to rest his ailing hip, and it was another week

for Snow to learn the Josh McDaniels offense. Sanu was on the field for one hundred percent of the Patriots plays. That's just kind of in his just in their last game, so you can tell how much the Patriots like this guy. And I think he could have another big week here. While Philly's offense has been mediocre at best this year, Carson Wentz his completion percentage is down that obviously he could have something to do with Jason Peters not playing, but he could also be down two stars at WIDO

this week. Sean Jackson's already out and now also Jeffery's coming up on the injury report, and that could be big trouble because then New England can just leave those excellent that excellent secondary out on Islands and just come after Wentz and the run game, and that just I

think it just spells trouble for Philly all night. They and Philly is mostly played poorly against good teams this year, and they're three and one at home, but those wins are against Washington, your Jets, and Mitchell Trubisky, who were just singing his praises so so kindly. I like the pass to get them back on track this weekend cover this one rather easily.

And if not, then You're gonna put Steffan Gilmour on zach Ertz, and then you're gonna be looking at Okay, Nelson Agalore go ahead out there, or Jordan Matthews, our new number one wide receiver, go ahead out there and try to do something against this defense.

although he's also played pretty well even when he's under pressure. Now, the receivers are not elite. Tyro Williams is still battling Planter Fasciatis, Hunter, Renfros improvings. A Jones is there, but it's not like any of these guys really scares you. But they have an elite running back in Josh Jacobs and an elite tight end in Darren Waller. So guess what, The Bengals are pretty much the worst team in the

league against running backs and tight end. So there are gonna be plenty of points for the Raiders in this one. But I honestly think in this one, I don't know, might be you know, kind of a hot take. I guess I think the Bengals are going to put up quite a few points in this game too. I get that Ryan Finley's numbers were not great against Baltimore, far from it, but I watched a lot of that game

and I kind of mildly impressed with him. I know his numbers weren't good and he threw that horrible pick six, but that's a really, really difficult defense, and he was able to move the ball kind of up and down the field pretty easily. And the Oakland pass defense is just kind of non existent. Put aside Philip rivers terrible game last week, it's just not a solid defense. The run defense is better. I think it's a little overrated,

but it's better. But Joe Mixon got thirty carries last week, so in a game where they were getting blown out, right, So if the coaching staff is finally going to heavily rely on their best offensive player, then I think that probably pourtens good things for their offense. So in the end, I see a ton of points from the Raiders. I see enough from the Bengals to get here. So you know, forty nine's a high, not crazy high, but a high

over under. But I still think that they're going to clear it and get into the fifties, so give me the Raiders and the Bengals over forty nine.

was amazing or anything like that. But I think it was a little overblown because I do think that he showed some good things. So I'm a little mildly bit of a believer in the guy as to having an NFL career. So we'll see about that. But I look forward to hearing your prop bet because mine might also be from that game. But we'll see where we end up.

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returns there. The reports are that the field is in good shape after last year's game was canceled or moved I guess at the last minute, but with the air that then the elevation there is about seventy two hundred feet for reference, for those who don't know Denver, which is the mile high city is fifty one hundred feet, so that's two thousand more feet in Mexico City, and I just I think there's going to be a ton

of points scored in this game. The Chargers have been practicing at the Air Force Facility this week and that has an elevation of six thousand feet. But to me, all that says is that you need to take the thin air seriously, and I think it will end up benefiting the offenses in the long run. I think those defenses will gas faster, and I think that there will be an opportunity for plenty of points. Mahomes looked like

his old self last week. Three tds four hundred and fifty yards against what was supposed to be at least a decent Titans defense. Put up thirty two points in that loss, thirty to twenty five loss of the Titans. That's not really his fault, but now he faces a

Chargers defense that ranks twenty sixth at DBOA. Casey Hayward has struggled this year and that second or just isn't the same without Derwin James, like they need him to be effective, like Joey Bosa will obviously be disruptive at points, but Mahomes show that he is capable, at least right now on that knee, to still move around that pocket a little bit. And for the Chargers offense, they have the exact weapons that you need to attack the Chiefs defense,

and that's two talented backs. Melvin Gordon looks like he it took him, like he had a training camp. He had four weeks where he was terrible and they were feet on the ball and it just didn't work. But now the last two weeks he's been much better and they've given him twenty plus touches a game. And then Austin Eckler will be able to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that have struggled with passing yards against running backs.

So I just I think both teams have the ability to score in this game, and I think fifty two is I think this number is also just going to go up the closer it gets to game time, So jump on it as soon as you can.

training camp. Is there any concern though for you in thinking about the over that the Chargers just come out and just basically ball control the heck out of this thing and just basically say we're going to keep that defense on the field for as long as possible. We're gonna have these really really long drives relying on the run. Because that is my only concern and one of the reasons why it wasn't one of my picks.

You have a short slant to you know, Tyreek killer McCole Hardman, who you know took that pass last week where he was basically in the grasp of two guys and he just like turned on the after does and just ran right past them so they could score at will. So I agree, I'm going to take the over when I make my picks on bettingpros dot com.

it's under a touchdown. So I think the Dolphins are justifiably getting some backing lately from betters. They've won two straight. I think they might have covered their last five games. They're clearly not tanking at this point. But I just don't think that the Dolphins are a very good football team, despite the fact that they have beaten the Jets, one of the worst teams in football, and the Colts with

Brian Hoyer and no t Y Hilton. So look, they don't have Xavin Howard anymore, they don't have Kenyan Drake, they don't even have Mark Walton anymore. They don't have Preston Williams. And I get it. We can't rely on them intentionally tanking anymore. That was sort of the big thing. They might put up a fight in the first half, and the second half they literally just be like, wait, wait,

we don't want to win this game. So that though, does not change the fact that they're just not particularly talented and it's hard to see them doing much offensively against the Bills that has a pretty elite pass defense. I mean, they pressure at the quarterback regularly, they have very good cornerbacks. They're week at the running defense right that's definitely where you attack them. And the Dolphins have Klin Bilage. He was awful last week in a featured role.

He's been awful all season. He is the irresistible force of running back futility over there. I mean, and offensively, the Bills are not great, but they can move the ball. John Brown's consistent Devin Singletary is getting more work. They'll score enough points and probably at a defensive score against Ryan Fitzpatrick at this point. I mean, this was a seventeen point spread a few weeks back. I don't see the teams being all that much different now. The Bills

are coming off a loss. They're probably angry. So for me under a touchdown, I'm gonna take this one.

a huge number. But I just I am very much on the Josh Allen still hasn't proven anything to me kind of train I want to see more from him. He's still inaccurate. He's obviously very talented running the football, but it just makes me. He makes me so uncomfortable. He might be the new Marcus Mariota for me. I know that might be a little blasphemous, but sorry, Bill's Mafia.

They probably should have lost the Dolphins a few weeks ago, and they're only scoring eighteen, like just over eighteen and a half points when they're on the road and you want them to cover almost a touchdown, I guess the number is going to be really important. Maybe at six and lower. I'd say the Bills six and a half are higher, maybe the Fins. So maybe that's one of the reasons I'm staying away. But these, like you said,

they're clearly not tanking anymore. Maybe maybe Flores wants Chase Young instead of one of those quarterbacks because Ryan Fitzpatrick thinks he has a job in the future. I guess he just is just gonna keep throwing footballs until people tell him to not throw footballs. The Bills. Your logic is one hundred percent correct. The Bills should win, they should cover. I just I can't I can't put I can't put the faith in Josh Allen.

and fifty percent on Miami. Well that's fine. How are the most accurate experts doing the top twenty percent of experts? How are they picking that game? Because you can see that on bettingpros dot com too, Well, fifty percent are taking Buffalo and fifty percent are taking Miami. That's the definition of a game you avoid. But you know what, I don't care. I'm that's fine. I'll be one of the ones who's going with it. Yeah, look I get it.

points here. I wouldn't argue with an under necessarily, but I really think in the end it's gonna just be way too tough for the Dolphins to put up points here. Again, I like their pass defense. I mean, it sounds like you're not quite as high on it as I am.

to seven, i'm out. I don't want the full touchdown or something like that. But if you're below the key number of seven, I'm really okay taking them for me, So I think you know I'm gonna go with that. So look, we jumped ahead to it's a trap. But let me very quickly recap what we did in pick six.

You are going to be taking the Pats laying three and a half against the Eagles, and the Jets are getting two and a half against the Redskins, the Pats laying three and a half against the Eagles, and the Chiefs and the Chargers over fifty two on Monday night in Mexico City. I'm going to be taking the Bears and the Rams under thirty nine and a half, the Raiders and the Bengals over forty nine, and the Bills

laying six and a half against the Dolphins. But you have already given your it's a trap, so I get to now give mine, and mine is I'm going to avoid the Vikings laying ten and a half to the bronc That's a really, really big number and you look at it, and the Vikings should easily win this game. But they're coming off this huge win against the Cowboys in primetime on Sunday Night. They've got a buy next week.

It's certainly a spot where they could easily just like look past it and be like, all right, we're gonna just easily take care of business here against the Broncos. We've got the relaxation by coming up, and then we'll get forward going, you know, finishing out the season strong. They're also most likely to still down Adam Thielen here. He hasn't been ruled out. There's a chance, I believe is the quote I heard that he could play, but

I highly doubt he's gonna suit up here. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Broncos defense continues to play relatively well. Brendon Allen wasn't great, but he managed the game okay in a game that they won last week.

Now they're off a bye, They've had the extra week to prepare for this, So I could see some value here in the Broncos getting a number that high, But the Vikings are just such a better team, and I just cannot get behind a team like the Broncos playing on the road, who probably can't take advantage of the big deficiency in the Vikings past defense with Brandon Allen as quarterback.

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our signed helmets. They come from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton of great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every day, and when you go there, use our promo code Betting Pros and win a free five dollars voucher instantly. So just go to Pristineauction dot com. That's p RI I S t I n E Auction dot com. All right, let's finish up with our topprop and I believe you mentioned that it's coming from the Raiders Bengals game, so go ahead.

You broke down the Bengals pretty quickly, one of the worst rush defenses in the league. They're allowing one hundred and seventy three yards per game on the ground and ranked twenty ninth in DVOA and not only giving up but a lot of yards. They're giving up a lot of yards in bunches. Sixteen plays of twenty or more this season, and the Raiders are just going to run

the ball up there. That's the game plan. They have one of the like you said, like you also mentioned, they have one of the best offensive lines in football, surprisingly to me, and Jacobs is averaging nearly twenty attempts per game and ninety yards per game. I just I am excited to back this one wholeheartedly, Josh Shacobs. I think he's gonna break a big one and go over this one. We'll say in like the third quarter.

You can get him to go over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards for plus two forty, or you can get him at over one hundred and fifty rushing yards at plus four to twenty five. Out of curiosity, which one of those is your favorite?

offensive line so I love the bet completely. Now I am going to stick in that game, and I'm gonna go on the other side of the ball, and I'm gonna go with Joe Mixon to go over seventy five rushing yards at minus one thirteen. So, as I mentioned, Mixing got thirty carries last week in a game in which the Bengals were blown out from the word go right, I mean they had the touchdown to Mark Andrews in like thirty seconds.

of holding opposing running backs in check. As I said, I don't really believe that the Oakland Rush defense is elite. I think it's far more about the fact that their pass defense is just terrible, and I think that that's really where you attack them. I think you can still attack them generally on the run. And again, seventy five yards is not a huge number, and it's only minus

one thirteen. You looked at what we said, Jacobs was minus one oh six at one hundred yards, So if you can get mix in at seventy five yards at minus one thirteen again, between the two, I think Jacobs is like the lock.

signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this week and my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early lines for week twelve on Monday