Best NFL Week 10 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 25)

We'll list a game to avoid, and then we'll give our favorite prop bet. But we are nothing if not accountable here at the Betting Bros Unfel podcast, so let us very quickly review last week. I hit on the Jets and the Dolphins over forty one and the Eagles Bears under forty two, but thanks to Adam Vinitari, I

missed on the Colts laying one to the Steelers. I also whiffed on what I admitted was a very big reach on a prop bet after I'd hit like five straight, which was Robbie Anderson over one hundred and twenty five receiving yards at plus four to twenty five against the Dolphins. Overall,

I don't feel all that bad about last week. And while I did bet the Colts because I placed my bets at some point shortly before or after recording, the t Y Hilton injury changed things just a bit after that, so I admit I hedged a little bit prior to Sunday. As for our guests Rick Ryan, he whiffed on both the Redskins getting ten from the Bills, and the Bears getting five from the Eagles as well as Lamar Jackson under fifty nine and a half rushing yards, but he

did hit on the Raiders, laying two to the Lions. Now, listeners should also know that I have never heard anyone quite as upset about missing three of his four picks as Rich was. Seriously, he's probably listening, and Rich you need to get a hold of yourself anyway, Adam, you've been our guests a couple of times, as I mentioned, so I know you are ready to roll.

You got a New Orleans team coming off to buy that. Quite frankly, the way that they were playing, I don't think they wanted to buy. The defense had been great, you just got Breeze back, and then all this you're gonna stop for a week. And furthermore, everything went perfectly according to plan for New Orleans during that bye week. Green Bay lost, Minnesota lost, San Francisco looked human against Arizona.

So now New Orleans in the driver's seat, not just for the number two seed, but possibly the number one seed in the NFC. I think this is a bad spot for them. I think they got fat and happy over the break. Atlanta chance to reset, refocus, maybe wipe the slate clean a little bit. For whatever reason, the Falcons didn't fire Dan Quinn and everybody kind of thought it was going to happen. Arthur Blank didn't want to

do it, the GM didn't want to do it. Maybe they feel like he's still got this locker room here. They should get Matt Ryan back here this week, and he should be healthier than he was a couple of weeks ago when Matt Shab had to play. Atlanta is the only side for me in that game, and in fact, I'm gonna wind up taking it, you know, in the super contest as well as personally.

to cover. I mean, it's just a million ways. When you look at the breakdown here of what we've got the it's fifty to fifty actually among the fifty eight experts who have put in picks, but the most accurate, the top twenty percent on the season are with you. They're sixty to thirty eight in favor of Atlanta. I mean, look, when I look at it, yeah, I can totally see it. But god, you are a brave man betting on Atlanta. That's sort of how I feel about it. If I

have to pick a side, I'll go with Atlanta. I agree with that, but you know, to make it one again, it's slim Pickens this week to be fair. It's just suck. They have just shown absolutely nothing. My worry about it, frankly, is not so much the offense. I agree, Ryan's going to come back. You know, I think they can move the ball even against a tough defense, because you know DeVonta Freeman. The strength of the Saints defense is their run defense, not as much their past defense, although overall

it's very strong. Freeman hasn't been doing anything on the ground whatsoever. He's held to like thirty yards or less the vast majority of his games. But on the passing side with Ryan back, which I agree, he's coming back. You know, Ridley's getting involved once the new is gone. Hooper is having a fantastic season. You always have Julio Jones, and Freeman's been great. My big worry, though, is their defense. Man,

how are they ever gonna stop New Orleans offense? That's my only concern in this game.

as close. The Cowboys they win by two, Buccaneers by seven, Jaguars by seven. Then they get a couple of lopsided wins and you start to feel like maybe this team just is dominant. But then they get that week off that kind of slows everything down a little bit. First of four straight division games in three and a half weeks, because they'll play Atlanta on Thanksgiving night on that short Thursday there the last week of November. Then they get

the forty nine ers and the Colts. So I just think that the Saints just kind of have their eyes on a bigger prize a little bit further down the line here.

For me, the big thing that I see on it is like I totally see the back door cover, the back door cover coming at the very end of it, just sort of Atlantic coming, you know, the Saints kind of backing off. Thirteen is just such a high number, and it's too high as to what it should be. I mean, I think it should be closer to ten or eleven. But realistically it's hard for me to take

the falcon. So I do appreciate your boldness, and if I am forced to choose a side, that would be the side that I would take as well.

with them. I can't believe Quinn still has a job. I mean, we've talked about that. That's that's really ridiculous. But yeah, I agree, certainly if they if they don't show up here, there's absolutely no reason to touch them for the rest of the season. For me, I am going to start with an over under, and usually with these I like to go under. I feel like those are usually this sharper side. But here I'm gonna go over and I'm gonna take the Cardinals and the Bucks

over fifty two and a half. Now, this line has been trending up all week. It is the highest over or under of the week, but sometimes just got to steer into the skid a little bit. Now, the analysis here is pretty simple, right, both teams have solid two above average offenses. The Bucks have not been held to fewer than twenty three points since Week two, and they've played some tough defenses in that span, with the Titans, the Panthers, the Saints, and the Rams. They've got a

ton of weapons on offense. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are studs. They're finally getting Ronald Jones involved. And you know, I host a fantasy football podcast. I've teased my very good friend Mike Tagler mercilessly about how high he has kept oj Howard in his fantasy ranks for rest of season. But assuming that Howard plays here and he is trending in that direction, I think he's going to have a big game. The Cardinals defense has been weak all year

against tight ends. Patrick Peterson has not made much of a difference. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the fastest team in the NFL offensively under Cliff Kingsbury's offense. The Bucks can stop the run, but they cannot stop the pass. Murray is gonna throw, He's going to run. And I've run through this game a million different times. I just cannot see a scenario, absent in injury to one of the quarterbacks,

where it's not a shootout. Plus you I mean, you can pretty much bank on the fact that Winston is going to have a massive turnover at some point, a pick six or a fumble deep in his own territory that's gonna lead to points. I don't like the spread here. I can't really trust either team these I don't like

to back either one of these teams. But on the over, even though it's fifty two and a half and that's a high number, I just it's hard for me to see any way that this game is in a massive shootout with a really really high point total.

just like, what are you doing, dude? It's I don't think I've ever seen a player that, in consistent from one play to the next at the quarterback position, maybe like a Jeff George type of dude or something like that. It's just it's unbelievable. But I, like you said, I mean, I think it's hard to see either team providing a whole lot of resistance here Tampa Bay and one of the few places in November where the weather won't be too bad at least usually not. So, I mean, I

get it. It makes sense. It is interesting to see the line coming down a little bit from the opening total, but I don't want to step in front of these two offenses.

Montra again. The big thing here is a couple of things. Number One, both teams are capable of massively explosive plays. I mean Mike Evans with the air yards that he's getting all season long, it's just every play is just a bomb to him. Both teams can score really quickly. It's not sort of a slow, grinded out game. You know. The Cardinals don't, you know, run the ball a crazy amount anyway, and they're not going to be able to run it on the Bucks, but they are going to

be able to throw it. And again, I think the Bucks are really going to be able to move it. So in the end, it's a high total, the highest of the week. But you know, for me, I feel relatively confident that I'm not going to be sweating this one out in the fourth quarter.

it down. Let's move on to your second pick. What do you got?

I know some sharp money has kind of shown a little bit of interest in taking Chicago, maybe in a by low type of situation, but I don't see how Chicago can lay points against any average to above average team right now. Matt Nagy just has no clue on offense. Trubisky's a disaster. I don't know why they don't just go with Chase Daniel decide that they're going to draft a quarterback. Detroit's looked pretty good, and you know you

mentioned that on last week's show. Your previous guest had Oakland minus two, and I had them in the Super Contest as well, but we got damn lucky getting that one. Detroit had a turnover just outside the red zone, a pick in the end zone, they had that goal line stand at the end of the game. They basically gave seventeen points away to Oakland, you know, with some of the turnovers and with their field position there. So Detroit another game that they should have won, and you can

hold that against them. You could say there's been games this season that they should have come away with a victory in but Division game here, Stafford's playing great, Detroit's defense has been playing pretty well. It seems like Matt Patricia's defensive influence is really starting to weigh in here

this season. This isn't necessarily as much of a play on Detroit as it is a fate of Chicago, but the Bears just don't deserve to be laying points against any team playing as well as Detroit has this year.

point offensively. I mean, I get that Matt Maggie is trying to rely on David Montgomery more right to run the ball because frankly, you've got to take the ball away from Mitchell Drubisky because he cannot do anything. He's completely regressed offensively. And again, the only hesitation is the exact point that you made, which is the Lions kind of have this knack of giving away these games that

it seems like they should win. Right against the Raiders, they did it early on in the first game, I believe, the season against the Cardinals where they wound up tying even though they were way ahead. So they do have the knack for doing that. But I completely agree with you. It is less about the Lions and much more about the Bears, and you got to fade them, particularly on offense.

So I really really like this second pick actually, and it actually feeds into my second pick, which is on the same game, and it's the under on forty two and a half on the over under. So I mean, I've been taking the Bears under pretty much the entire year, and it's been a pretty solid place to live for really much of the reason that you describe. They've played eight games, they've been below thirty seven points in five of them, and they've been above forty six points just once.

Their defense isn't quite as vauntid as it once was, but it's still an above average unit overall. Really, again, it's their offense. Mitchell Trubisky is terrible. There are no signs of life from the passing offense. He was almost benched at halftime last week now. He did come out and did have a much better second half, but I believe they had nine yards at the half or something like that. They went three and out in their first five drives, so they're really just not doing it whatsoever.

And again, the ground game is fine, but it's not quite as you know, explosive as you really are gonna need it to be if you're gonna have to have a quarterback like Mitchell Trubisky. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Detroit can certainly move the ball fine, but it's not a matchup that sets up particularly well for the type of offensive, you know, game plan that they have. The Bears have been vulnerable on the ground since the Keeam Hicks went out. But the Lions just

really have no running game. They haven't really all season. They certainly haven't since carry On Johnson went out, Ty Johnson, JD. McKissick. They're just not gonna get the carries or have that same success. The Lions their strength and their passing offense, their receivers, Kenny Galladay is great, Marvin Jones is still doing well. Danny A. Mondola pops up these good games about half the time. But the Bears are pretty good

against the posing wide receivers. They've allowed just three touchdowns to them all year. They allow less than eleven yards per reception to wide receivers. Both of those are third best in the league. So this has the feel to me of a slower game where the Lions, you know, kind of rely on their tight ends like Hawkinson and James, and they kind of methodically move the ball up and down the field. So again, don't forget we're in November. It's Chicago, it's going to be cold. That kind of

sets up well for the under. So I agree, I like Detroit, but I also like the under at forty two and a half.

be able to run the football. They have two games that have amounted for a good portion of their running yards, one fifty three against Denver in Week two, one sixty two against the Chargers in Week eight. They're not even running the football, and we all know that Mitch Trubisky is not a guy that you want to rely on. The one really bad thing about this Detroit defense their thirtieth and third down conversion rate against at forty eight point one percent. But the Bears are twenty eighth and

third down conversion rate at thirty one point four. So this looks like a game, you know, with some field position, with some decisions to punt the football. Both these coaches have kind of made some real conservative decisions on fourth down and stuff like that throughout the year, So I got one. Definitely makes some sense. And you know, I don't think a low scoring game bothers Detroit all that much either, just because Stafford's been so efficient taking care

of the ball. So who knows, Maybe you and I both have winners in this one.

But the Bears, to me, they just strike me as a team that's, you know, on the verge of basically mentally checking out at this point, because it's just got to be So. I'm a Jets fan, right, so I recognize exactly how it looks when a team is just kind of, you know, throwing their hands up in the air and saying, I don't really know how much more effort we can do. That kind of seems like where the Bears are heading because Trubisky just gives them almost

no chance to win at this point. So I see them kind of relying on their defense, like I said, But again, there's no way they should be laying points at this point to anyone, pretty much. I mean, obviously, you know, you got the Dolphins fine, but not a team like Detroit, which is a quality football team, you know, despite the fact that their record overall isn't that great. Let's move to your third pick here real quickly.

great book that he wrote. But getting through three, getting through seven, right through that corridor, very very important. So my favorite NFL play of the week here is actually Buffalo and Detroit on a teaser. But as far as a regular side play goes Minnesota plus three in the Sunday nighter. I mean, you've got a Dallas team here

that okay, fine, they're five and three. They've beaten the Giants twice, Washington and Miami, who are both awful, and then a good win over the Eagles before Philadelphia kind of ironed out some kinks, sort of worked some things out here. If Minnesota had Adam Feelin, I would absolutely love the Vikings in this spot. Give me a little bit of pause not to have him. But Minnesota is

such a good team. Last week I give Kansas City a lot of credit for stepping up defensively, holding Minnesota to three hundred and eight yards, but prior to that, Minnesota just racking up yards on everybody. Again, maybe they played a little bit of a softer schedule in there, but I think it gave you know, first year offensive Cordator and Kevin Stefanski a little bit more time to get some confidence going with this offense, to get some

confidence going for Kirk Cousins as well. Mike Zimmer is a huge mismatch, maybe the biggest mismatch of the week against Jason Garrett. Minnesota has been excellent when they've played outside the NFC North. Dallas really only plays well against the NFC East. I think Minnesota is absolutely the right side on Sunday night, not even just plus the three. But they should win this game outright.

a Marii Cooper who is banged up right now. Actually, Michael Gallup, although we practiced in full, was added to the injury port right now, so they are both dealing with some sort of injury. At least I think both will play, but they're a little bit banged up. Me and all the Vikings. I mean, that was a tough loss last week and they kind of need to win this game. You know, They've got to stay in the

hunt here with the Packers doing well. So it's not quote unquote I must win game or anything like that, but they really need to do whatever they can to try to pull it out. In terms of Kirk Cousins, look, he has been playing really well this year. I've been really impressed by him. But he plays really really well indoors.

Now most of those are home games, of course, but right now, I mean the Cowboys technically have the open roof and everything like that, but this is, for all intents and purposes, a game that's going to be indoors on the turf. Of course, you do have no Adam dealing. I agree that hurts them a little bit, but I think it was it hurt them more last week against Kansas City because they weren't prepared for it. You know, their offense looked fine and they got Digs heavily involved.

Diggs was barely involved last week, and the Chiefs they get Digs heavily involved when they have the week to game plan around the fact that Feelan is not going to be there, which they have right now. I think Dalvin Cook is going to have a huge game like he always does, so I agree with you at this point. You know, the Cowboys coming off that win, but coming off a short week, you've got kind of a desperate Vikings team and indoors, I agree with you. I like them getting the three points here.

both these teams find themselves in. The Ravens come off this absolutely enormous win against the Patriots in prime time. This has to it just has to be a little bit of a letdown spot for them. And you can have a letdown spot against the Bengals and still win pretty easily. But the Bengals are also coming off the bye, during which they have changed quarterbacks from Andy Dalton to Ryan Finley. I think the team is probably going to

come out with a little bit of energy. I think you're probably going to see some creative offensive plays here. I mean, the team's ohn eight, they've got nothing to lose. I think you're going to see some you know, a little bit more razzle dazzle than you've seen so far as they try to eke out a win against the division rival. And you know, look, the Bengals are terrible, but remember that they covered that big spread earlier in the season against the Ravens, and with a they're getting

a little bit healthier. They got Drake Kirkpatrick and William Jackson are coming back, or at least they're probably both at one hundred percent dark as Denard Carlos and John Miller, they look likely to play. Cordy Glenn may finally suit up after his concussion. That'd be a big boost to the offensive line. So the Ravens are almost certainly gonna

win this game. But when you're talking about double digits, I mentioned it earlier when you talked about the Falcons, you get double digits on any NFL team, It just makes you kind of want to really dig into that. And here there are just a lot of ways for the Bengals to eat out a back door cover like

they did the first game against the Ravens. So again, after that emotional win, with the Bengals changing quarterbacks, off a bye, getting healthier, I'm gonna take them getting double digits in points well and again.

I know, Baltimore got that nice win over New England last week that probably propped this line up a little bit. Maybe they're saying that there's a downgrade from Andy Dalton to Ryan Finley, but I don't think that's the case. I mean, if you flip home field here, is there any way in hell you'd lay sixteen and a half

with Baltimore. I wouldn't, not in the spot that they're in, not against the team coming off of a bye where you don't have any film on Ryan Finley either, So I think Cincinnati does make a lot of sense here this week. Maybe it's just an anti Baltimore play coming off the spot, but I've gotta think Ryan Finley looks better. And one other point here, like I talked about with

New Orleans over their bye week, everything went great. You know, Green Bay lost, Minnesota loss, San Francisco, you know, had all kinds of trouble with Arizona. Everything was great, everything was peachy for New Orleans. What happened on Cincinnati's buy one of the teams without a win got a win. So now you're oh to eight and you're sitting there

thinking we can't be the Owen sixteen team. Now, of course they're probably not going to be Baltimore, but still, I mean it probably gives them a little bit more focus, a little bit more incentive to go out there and you know, not embarrass themselves this week.

And I agree, Look, you know, Andy Dalton is not the worst quarterback in the NFL. Okay, but certainly it's not as if you're like, well, I don't know, we're going from Andy Dalton to Ryan Finley. Finley is fine. He can play, he was fine in college. He can get He's not probably not gonna push them all like crazy or anything in his first game. But they're fine. And even without Green, they have Tyler Boyd, they have

you know, Audentate, They've got enough receivers. Hopefully the coaching staff figures out a way to better utilize Joe Mixon, which is something basically that people have been screaming about for years, regardless of the coaching staff. So yeah, I with you here. You know they're going to be motivated. I think they're going to come out with a little bit of energy up at the game. And again, it's so hard. We've seen this time and time again. You had such an emotional win for the Ravens. To beat

the Patriots on Sunday Night. It's just got to be a little bit of a letdown. And again, that doesn't mean that they're gonna just complete a tack. I don't think the Bengals are going to win or anything like that, but you know, that's sort of an opening for a team like the Bengals to maybe get off to a fast start.

Finley in the NFL draft. You know, they could have taken a quarterback earlier because they knew that this would be the last year with Dalton, because Dalton wasn't going to do anything to get himself a huge contract from Cincinnati, especially with the new coach that you know didn't even draft him, and he isolated Ryan Finley. As much as we don't know about Ryan Finley, if a guy like Zach Taylor, who's been around quarterbacks, was in that Sean

McVay system, so on and so forth. If he likes Ryan Finley, why shouldn't I like Ryan Finley.

this week. So let's recap here. You like the Falcons getting thirteen from the Saints, the Lions plus two and a half over the Bears, and the Vikings getting three from the Cowboys. Of course, I will mention you did mention your favorite bet of the weekend is the two team teaser Buffalo getting eight and a half and the Lions getting eight and a half. Is that right?

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a gambling problem called one hundred gambler. All right, Adam, let's move to it's a trap where we list the line of the week that we are avoiding. What do you got?

Pittsburgh on Sunday. That could have been a real big worry. But I don't know if the Rams have really turned a corner. There's still very one dimensional on offense. They cannot run the football for one reason or another. I have very good route runners there that really do help golf more often than not. But Pittsburgh's quick on defense, They've rebuilt on the fly. They've gotten very young on

the defensive side of the ball. They've got some pass rushers with Watt and Bush, and then the Pittsburgh offense, I don't know what I'm gonna get week in and week out, And really I don't know what I'm gonna get from drive to drive with Mason Rudolph doesn't have a lot of help at the skill positions. With Smith Schuster getting double covered and you know, so much attention paid to him. I cannot touch this game one way

or another. You can't tease it either way either, because I think there's a chance that Pittsburgh could get comfortably beaten if you do tease them up to nine and a half or something like that. Plus you're not getting three or only getting seven. That's a complete stayaway game for me. I don't even like the total on it either.

He's terrible under pressure. And the one thing the Steelers do is they really get pressure on the quarterback. You know, Heinz Field is a difficult place to play. And again, one of the things I like to do when our guests come on and they talk about these bets that they're avoiding, is I like to look at the breakdown of how our experts are picking them, and this shows exactly why you're avoiding it. Fifty three forty seven favor

the Rams, so basically split right down the middle. So it is a game again where the Steelers are also a really difficult team to bet on either way because they're so gimmicky, you know what I mean. They're winning games, you know, Jalen Samuel's last week had thirteen receptions. You just can't game plan around that. So for me, I completely agree with you. This is a game I don't like out of curiosity. You said you initially liked it

when you first looked at it. Was that on the Rams or was that on the Steelers.

probably if Jacoby Brissette doesn't get hurt. Not that Brian Hoyer played poorly necessarily, but I mean that completely changed the complexion of that game, even though Indianapolis scored a touchdown in that possession where Brissette got hurt, But I mean that could have gone completely differently for the Steelers. I was actually on Pittsburgh last week in the Super

Contest and felt really fortunate to get that one. I just I don't think Pittsburgh's a very good team, and I don't think Tomlin's a very good coach.

home at the point, so they're comfortable right now. And again, I just don't feel comfortable with the Rams at this point, given that you know, you don't really know what you're going to see from them, and again they're down Brandon Cooks as well, who's out this week, so you really don't know exactly what you're gonna get. For me, I'm avoiding the Browns laying three to the bill. So you mentioned that you are willing to tease the Bills. So

I'd really like to hear your thoughts on it. And again, I believe if memory serves that you are a Browns fan, is that correct?

game out right now. The Browns have been a disaster this year, and I think we talked about it when you were on in an early show. They were, you know, Mayfield got the most money on them to be the MVP. The Browns, I think got the most money on them to win the Super Bowl. So at this point, you have to feel like the public has just been bruised and battered so badly by backing the Browns. So I feel like you look at it and you're like, well, the Bills, you know, they're having such a good season,

they should be able to win. So when you see a line like that, for me, there's always a reason for it. Like last week with the Chargers against the Packers, and I think the Packers were laying three and a half, and you just looked at it from the surface, from far away, and you're like, man, you know the books are going to get a ton of money on the Packers because they're such a public team. Why aren't they

making this higher? There's usually some sort of reason for it, And when you dive into it, the Bills really just are not nearly as good as their record indicates. Their strength of schedule has been preposterously easy. They are weak against the run, which is the one thing the Browns can do, and they're gett Kareem huntbacks, so they add

a little bit more of a dimension there. So when I look at everything, I mean, I guess I kind of like the Browns maybe, but I just cannot back them in the end because they've been I've backed them several times this year, right, I backed them against the Patriots, and again I didn't think that was terrible performance. I mean, I think they got pretty unlucky in that game to not cover. But I've backed them several times. I hit

them against Denver last week. It's just basically at a point where I feel like I can't feel comfortable backing them is particularly his favorites, but really in any game. So for me, the Browns length three to the Bills is a game I'm avoiding.

The schedule got easier last week with Denver, got much easier with Brandon Allen, and they still couldn't take advantage of it. Buffalo's played a week schedule. Maybe they're a little bit of a fraudulent six and two team. Maybe Cleveland should be better than two and six, But look, Baker and I mentioned this on my show which I recorded the Friday edition here just before we started recording. Baker can't throw guys open. In college football, his guys

had you know, two three yards on a defender. All you have to do is put the ball there. In the NFL, you've got to throw your guy open occasionally, and he hasn't made those throws in those tight windows. He's put balls behind guys, They've been tipped and picked. He's put balls, you know, over guys heads. He's not an accurate passer, and maybe he's just not a very good quarterback. On the other hand, it could be a scheme thing with Freddy Kitchens. But I don't see how

the Browns get this thing figured out. Baker already said this week, well, we got to force the ball to obj. Okay, that's not a great idea. You're not putting Nick Chubb out there in third down situations. The opposition knows it's going to be a pass. They're not worried about Dontrell Hilliard running on him. Does Kareem Hunt change that? Maybe? But you know what else, Kareem Hunt does take snaps

away from Nick Chubbho's been their best offensive player. So I don't love that you're trying to keep Beckham happy, You're trying to keep Landry happy. They don't know how to spread the ball around to all of these different weapons here, because there's only one football and the Bills are a very good defensive team. Say what you will about the schedule, they're still very very stout on that

side of the ball. If Cleveland takes advantage of the weaker schedule here quote unquote and beats the Bills, so be it. They're gonna have to prove it to me. I may end up taking Buffalo there plus three in the super contest as opposed to two and a half, so I may end up on him there. I still think the teaser with one leg being Buffalo is a great idea. But I have no confidence in the Browns. And it's not my jaded Cleveland fandom. It's just watching this team week in and week out. I don't think

Baker knows how to fix it. I know Kitchens doesn't know how to fix it. Monkan has really no say as the offensive coordinator. They're a mess, and you're not gonna fix a mess against a good defensive team.

for the Browns because especially regardless of their schedule. But again, the personalities in that locker room, it's just it's too combustible. It's hard to see them really getting up for the game, you know what I mean, which again is why the line it strikes me as strange. You know, I get that they're home, and I you know, I get where it might have been at the look ahead line, but at this point, everything about them screams that they're just checked out. So it's really hard for me to do.

But again, when there's a line like this that makes me kind of say, what am I missing? One am I missing? What am I missing? It's usually a line that makes me want to stay away. So I'm gonna I'm gonna run from this one, and so I'll be avoiding the Browns laying three did the Bills, and you were going to be avoiding the Rams laying three and a half to the Steelers. Before we get into our final segment, remember we've got a signed Odell Beckham junior

helmet giveaway contest going on. Considering we were just talking about the Browns, and get more details over bettingpros dot com slash contest. But to be entered, just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. That helmet comes from our friends over at Pristine Auction, where they have a ton of incredible stuff

to bid on and hundreds of auctions daily. So go check them out at pri I S t I n E auction dot com and if you sign up using our registration code Betting Pros, you get a free five dollars voucher. All right, it's time for top prop. 're Adam and I list our top player prop for the weekend. Go ahead and start us off.

I think since Sandy had a pretty good game plan, But when you get a quarterback that can improve the way that he can, it's very, very tough to stay in converage. It's very tough to you know, try and hold contain. Since he I has given up one hundred and forty one more rushing yards to quarterbacks than the other than any other team in the NFL, largely because of that first meeting with Lamar Jackson, I'm not sure I see this week's one going any differently.

the ten, is they can't tackle. And they've had some of these games this year where they just come out and I think it was against the forty nine Ers earlier, and you know, against the Seahawks it's okay, but you know, against the forty nine ers certainly in other games where they just can't tackle, and when you get Lamar Jackson sort of in open field they're scrambling or anything like that. I think he is somebody who's probably going to have

a pretty big rushing total this week. So you know, again it's not something that necessarily goes against the spread because again that's that's just you know, it's not gonna be an explosive player or anything. I mean, it could, of course, but for the most part with rushing, it's just going to kind of keep the clock moving and everything like that, hopefully take longer drives to keep the game closer than an otherwise would be. But in the end, I don't dislike, you know, going over on Jackson QB.

Rushing props generally make me a little nervous. Legitimately, they make me a little nervous just because you can scramble, so when you're going over, especially with a guy like Jackson, I really don't have a problem with that.

Eight carries, in the loss to Kansas City where they were trailing by you know, double digits a decent part of that game, and the game against Cleveland nine carries where they gave up forty points and the Browns just had not a boy experience other than that, in closer games, Jackson's had to run. So if you like the Bengals here, there's probably some correlation with Jackson in future Ravens games. If they're going to need his legs, he will be

there with them. So if you do, like the other side of a game against Baltimore, it's almost like a like a pseudo hedge or a quasi middle to take Jackson over the rushing yards because he'll think that they need him.

are with it to happen. And he's only done it twice this year, and he's coming off a game where he just gained thirty yards rushing, but they ran just fifty plays against the Chargers. So I think this is a little bit of a get right game here against the Panthers for the Packers at home. The Panthers defense remains strong against the pass, but they are definitely vulnerable

against the run. They have shown that the last two weeks against the forty nine Ers and the Titans, where Tevin Coleman and Derek Henry kind of ran all over them. Jamal Williams is still there and he's going to get his seven to ten touches per game or whatever. But I think this is the type of game where Jones can see closer to these sixteen to twenty carries as

the Packers look to control the game. I do think that the Packers are going to win this game as they come home, and they were embarrassed last week in Los Angeles, so I do think that it's a game where they're going to be ahead and they're going to rely a little bit more on the run, particularly because that's the panther's efficiency. So it's a big number, and again it's plus two hundred. It's the same thing with

Robbie Anderson that I did last week. When you're getting you know, good odds, it's something it's not that you necessarily expect it definitely to happen, but given the odds, I think of him going over. I'm there, So you know, if you're getting two to one on your money for this one, given the fact that I do expect the Packers to be playing from ahead, for them to rely a little bit more on their round games since I

got away from it last week. I'll take plus two hundred for Jones to go over one hundred rushing yards.

range this game. I think it makes sense to go with a running back over type of prop and also to take a little bit of odds with it, because you're in that one to two score range of between a field goal and a touchdown to where Green Bay may be salting this game away in the fourth quarter. It's kind of what the line would suggest to you a little bit, which would mean Aaron Jones, which would mean giving him touches, trying to assert the line of

scrimmage a little bit more so. I think this is the right type of spread range to take a little bit of a shot like that, getting two to one on a rushing yards prop, expecting the game plays out as anticipated and that Jones does wind up as you mentioned, getting a good handful of toats there.

control the game. It's certainly their rushing defense rather than their passing defense. All right, that's going to do it for today's show. Thanks again for joining me and and remind everyone where they can find more of you and your work.

work over there. A lot of good resources out there for betters here in this current you know, sports betting landscape, and also some pretty good election results here this past week to help push sports betting a little bit further. So that'll definite it'll be something you want to pay attention to as we head into twenty twenty with more states coming on board. Yeah.

Beckham junior signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this weekend, we'll be backbreaking down the early lines for week eleven on Mondays.