Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is finally time after months of waiting, Week one of the NFL is here. So today, as we're going to be doing every Thursday when we record, we're going to talk about some of our best bets, either against the spread or over unders.
We'll give you a bet to avoid, and then we're gonna give you our favorite player prop bet for the week. And with me today to break it all down is Ian McMillan, a writer over at oddshark dot com. Now I try to butter up all of our guests just so they'll agree with me regardless of what I say, So make of this what you will. But Ian is crazy, and I mean that in a really good way. We're gonna be talking about Week one of the NFL on this show. But if I wanted him to handicap some
UFC matches, he'd be all over it. What did you want to bet on the Fortnite World Cup last month? Because he broke down all the betting odds So if you're feeling really good about your son's soccer matchup or something this weekend like I am, then just reach out to Ian because he's probably gonna be able to give you some under the Raider player props. You can find him on Twitter at Ian mac os That's IAI n mac os Ian.
How's it going, man, it's going great things for having me on, What a great intro. You are absolutely correct. If I can find a way to make some money betting on anything, I will do it.
So I mean legitimately with my kid, Like the over under for him is half a goal. I mean the under is at minus one thirty, the overs at plus one oh five. Any insight there, I'm gonna bring you over here.
Depends on the weather a couple other factors, but either way, I think I like the over on that.
Yeah. I've seen him play and that's a loser, all right, buddy. He has been playing for two years. He has yet to score a goal. But we don't know. My expert coaching may come into play, so look, before we get into it, I do want to announce the winner of our August contest for the autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. Congratulations to George from Egg Harbor City, New Jersey, and we've already notified George by email, so he will be getting
the helmet soon enough. Now, if you did not win, which is pretty much everyone other than George, dry your eyes because we are running another contest for September. If you're sad about missing out on the McCaffrey helmet, not to worry because we've got an autographed Alvin Kamara helmet giveaway for September. It's the same rules as before. Leave a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros
dot com. And if you have already screenshotted and sent in your review, then great, you are automatically entered into this month and all future months contests. It's a great job way to support the show and potentially win prizes.
You're doing life right, all right. So, as I said, Ian and I are going to give our thoughts on some bets for week one, but I will note at the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff of the Bears Packers game, so we aren't going to be referencing it anyway, But just so you know, however, it turned out that is exactly how we would have picked it had it been fair for us to do so. So I'm going to take credit this and I'll force
I into as well. So Ian, We're gonna get started with some of our favorite bets for Week one, but before we do, I do want to talk to you guys about one of the sponsors of today's show, bet MGM, and specifically the betmgm Sports App. There was a time not so long ago where to place a bet on a sporting event you needed to head out to Las Vegas. But now, as you surely know, states are legalizing sports betting at a rapid pace, and there are plenty of spots to go to in the country where you can
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each going to be giving three picks here. And since this is our inaugural weekly pick show, I kind of wanted to come up with a catchy name for this first segment. I was thinking something with six, you know, since we're both doing three picks, and as my daughter recently informed me, three plus three is in fact six, So I was thinking maybe like six feet under. But I feel like that's a bet omen right, I mean, it's got to be better.
Yeah, that might be a bad open. I mean, the classic go for betting, for anything betting related for the NFL, especially if it's six picks, would be the Pick six.
Oh, the pick six. That would be I'm not even kidding. I was gonna come up with something totally lame. The pick six it is. We're going with that for the pick six. You're I mean, look, I know all of our former guests listen to this, but you're officially my favorite guest because you you have done that. And just to be clear, I mean, unless you know, we make some sort of wager for you to be my co host on this, like you're not going to be appearing
every single show, but I'm keeping that already. Pick six that's our first part. You can, all right, So well done. I digress a little bit, but let's get going with the first edition of Pick six. I love it. For all odds, we're going to be using the consensus odds at bettingpros dot com, which, as I've told you before, aggregates the odds available in the market, so you might see one or two different odds across the various sports book But for our purposes, we're going to be using
the consensus picks. So, Ian, why don't you go ahead start us off? What's your what's your top bet? All right?
So, I yeah, the first pick. I do have to put a little bit of an asterisk next because I'm a little bit biased. I am a diehard Atlanta Falcons fan. Now, the first rule in betting is don't follow your heart, don't be biased, but I can't really help it, especially when it comes to NFL. But also another little lastix. So Falcons right now are plus four against the Vikings. But I just read about a half an hour ago that Julio Jones may not play if he doesn't get
that contract done before Sunday. So if he doesn't play, I have the right to withdraw this bet, even though I guess.
I'm sorry, I'm sorry. No, we will not honor that. This is official. This is official to be fair. I did see that as well. It read to me much more of a I don't know. I mean, I'm optimistic this is gonna get done. But if I can't, I can't say for certain, then I'm gonna suit up. Sounded it didn't sound to me like there's a real risk of him missing. But I get it, you know, I feel you, and in fact, I'll reverse course and if in fact he does miss the game, I'll let you out.
I mean, I've already got my bet locked in, so I'm set either way. So they're plus four at the Vikings. Now. The Falcons obviously had an off year last year, but their top two defensive players were out, got hurt and put on ir the very first week in Ricardo Allen and and Dion Jones, so I expect them to have a bounce back year this year. I'm a little bit worried because kind of their strength on offense is obviously the passing, the Vikings strength on defense is their past defense,
So that does worry me a little bit. But as a Falcons fan, I can see the classic thing happening of them losing on a last second field goal. But if they do, if they do, the plus four covers it. So I like Atlanta. I think I'm gonna back them quite a bit this year. I think this is a big bounce back for them this year, and I love them. Plus four at Minnesota.
Yeah, getting certainly getting past the key number of three. Exact difference, Yeah, for sure. You know, I looked at it. I was a little worried. It was a game that I didn't really feel comfortable either way. If I if I had to make a pick, it would be on the Falcons. But you know that looking at the preseason, I try not to take too much from it. The offensive line just kind of seemed a little bit out of sync and on the road in this first game. I like the Vikings too, I'm pretty high on them.
Generally I would go with the Falcons by I was a little less sure of it. Now you're a Falcons fan, I'm sure you've got, you know, probably more insight into even the team than I do. But it struck me as a little worse. We did know, we were talking about it before we recorded that. It moved. The line moved. They were originally getting three and a half, right, and you were going to take them there too as well, Right.
That's right. Yeah, as soon as I saw anything over three, that's kind of what I pounced on. It might have moved before because of that Julio Jones news that just came out today, but yeah, you said it. I mean, if one thing is gonna lose this bet, it's gonna be the Falcons offensive line. That's that's their biggest week point all seasons. So they got a couple of rookies that will be starting. Hopefully they can pull through for them. But if it's overfield goal, I like the Falcons here.
No, I think overfield goal is certainly you know, again that key number of three is certainly something they take a look at. And in fact, you know I mentioned betting pros dot Com. One of the things that we do is we have a bunch of betting experts, sports betting experts that make their picks, and right now, fifty eight percent are with you. They're on the side they're going with the Falcons. So most likely that's gonna be a good pick. But for me, it's it's close enough
where I is a little unsure. It is a game that I'm really interested to watch from an NFL perspective, just because both of these teams I think have a chance to be really interesting this year. So one way or another, I'll be watching for me my number one pick. And I just feel like when I say this, I almost I can't get off it because I've been trying to push myself off it. But I can't because I like it. You may not. It is the Chiefs at the Jaguars, and I like actually the Jaguars getting three.
I know, I believe me. I am not in the majority on this one, but I've been looking at this game closely and kind of go through it, you know. For the record, By the way, I will say that my boss basically told me that he really loves the chief with the spread. So this may actually be my last episode. And Ian, since you came up with the last segment, you can probably just take over for me if you're cool with that. But look, this is how
I generally approach making my game picks. Okay. I do my own projections for the game, and I come up with what I think the spread and the over under ought to be, and when the numbers are off by anything more than like a point or two, I then kind of start looking and how the game is being bet Now I talked to about this on Monday. But the spread opened originally as the Chiefs laying five, so it's moved about a point and a half since it
first opened months ago. Now, some of that is news about Tyreek Hill, right, everybody thought that he was going to get suspended, and then once he wasn't, the spread closed a little bit. But again, as we talked about, players like wide receivers and running backs don't usually have that much of an impact on the spread. So you know, when it went from five, you know, it never rebounded
when we knew that Hill was going to play. So when you look at the amount of money that's being bet, you can see that roughly seventy percent of the number of bets coming in here are being placed on the Chiefs, but the actual amount of money that's being bet is relatively split down the middle. And so when something like that happens, that almost is always an indication that sharpetters
are betting against the public. So even though the public here is backing the Chiefs, the line has dropped and has not rebounded from where it was now in week one. It's a little hard to read into that. As much as I'm trying to do here because the lines have been out forever, so there's a lot of money that's been coming in forever. But still the fact that the line never rebounded suggests to me that there is some
smart money coming in on the Jags. And really, again, as I talked about this with Sean Green on our last show, and we just mentioned, actually there are key numbers, right, There's three is a key number. Seven is a key number. Thirty percent of all games over the last fifteen years or so have ended with exactly a three or seven margin of victory. So when you get above or below one of those numbers, I get a little bit enticed. And so here at three and a half, I'm kind
of excited. I've been talking myself into the Jags all preseason. I think the offense is gonna be much improved with any quarterback not named Blake Bordoles, and with Fournette slimmer and looking motivated, I think the defense is still going to be strong. They match up pretty well with the Chiefs, given that they have one of the true shutdown corners in Jalen Ramsey when he's on at least, and I think this is gonna be a close game, So I'm gonna take it when you get that extra half a
point at minus one fourteen. So go ahead tell me why I'm wrong.
No, I actually don't hate that pick, but I mean so, like you said, the public's gonna be on the Chiefs, because when you look at it, it almost seems like just three and a half is too good to be true to bet on the Chiefs dudging by how good they were last season. But the points you made about the Jaguars were a lot of things that I've been thinking as well. I think they are gonna have a bounce
back year similar to the Falcons. If you remember, hitting into the last season, the Jaguars were a dark horse pick for a lot of people to win the Super Bowl. Obviously, they you know, didn't live up to those expectations. I think they finished five and eleven, But I do think they are gonna have a bounce back year this year. And I think, just as a caveat for basically oli our picks in Week one, this is Week one, so we have no idea what we're gonna see from these teams.
So there's certain games that there's teams that I'm interested. I would need to see how they're looking and how they're gonna perform this year before I place any money on it. So that's why I'm not picking the Jaguars myself. But I'm also not gonna pick the Chiefs because the Jaguars are just one of those teams that I want to see before I put my money on it. So I don't hate the bet, especially because I don't know
the three and a half. It seems. I don't like calling betting lines traps, but if there is a trap line, it would be this one. It Chiefs seem too.
Easy, right, and you know again, let's just make it clear, Okay. First of all, I mentioned the percentage of experts that were on your side in the last pick. Sixty six percent of experts are siding with the Chiefs here langing the three and a half. So I will put that out there. And of course, I mean, I'm gonna be honest. I'm absolutely terrified to bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid's record, of course, whenever you know his record off a bye is well known. He's usually good in first game, so
there are plenty of factors that make me nervous. But I honestly, I just think that this is gonna be a different Jaguars team. I think playing at home to open the season, I think the spread, you know, once it got past once it stayed above three. Really, I just it's something where I feel like it's gonna be enough that the Jaguars are gonna pull it out. But I'm willing to be on an island here a little bit. So all right, what's your second pick?
Yeah, so my second pick and actually my one of my main points, but my second pick actually helps, oh, your Jaguars pick as well. So my second pick is going to be the Buccaneers minus one over the forty nine ers. And that point is what it's like to play in Florida in September. So the Jacksonville has that advantage playing at home in Florida in September. Tampa Bay has that advantage as well. It's just humid, it's grown.
Even teams like Miami. I'd like to see what they're gonna do in September because I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but something tells me that Florida teams have a good spread record in the month of September, and I think that just September's in Florida's can can be tough, So Buccaneers it's because they're a Falcon divisional opponent, it's it could I die a little inside every time I pick a different NFC South team. But I think the Buccaneers are going to do better
than a lot of people think. And I think the forty nine ers are going to do worse than a lot of people think. A lot of people are high up on the forty nine ers this year, and they were heading into last year as well. I think a lot of people just have high hopes for Jimmy Garoppolo. But I don't see it. I mean, he had a couple of good what was it might even just been preseason when he was with the Patriots, had a couple of good games. Maybe it's regular season. I kind of forget now, But.
Yeah, I think he played a couple of games in the regular season that year where I remember then he got injured and then Jacoby Brissett came in and they won against the Texans or something like that. Yeah, yeah, he played a few games, but nothing really substantial in the regular season.
Yeah, And but I just think that most quarterbacks in the NFL are going to have at least some sort of success inside the Patriots system. So I'm just not sold on him. Before he got hurt. Last year, he didn't look great. He didn't look great in the preseason. This year, I'm not high up on Jimmy Garoppolo at all. I think the Buccaneers at home, and I think they're improved from last year. I mean, they still have some offensive weapons as well, like they of course they have
Mike Evans. I think Chris Godwin's gonna have a big year. They have a couple of good running backs in Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones. I just think Tampa Bay at home against a West Coast forty nine ers team that I'm not high on. I think I think that's a game Tampa is gonna win.
Out of curiosity, you know, we know about the whole West Coast teams playing on the East Coast. Do you think that that holds true even for Week one or do you think that that's more something for in the season.
I think it holds true, but not as much as it does as would mid season and generally just road teams as a whole. I'm betting on a lot of road teams actually other than the Bucks. The Bucks are home, but I'm betting on a lot of road teams week one because I just don't think it has as big of an effect as it does mid or late season, just because by then they're just they're they've been traveling all year, they're tired, they're hurt. Week one, it doesn't
have as big an effect. But I would still say it does have an effect that's at least worth mentioning.
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a good bed. Fifty eight percent of experts are with you. This was not a game I had a good feel for it, just because, look, you mentioned it before. Week one is really tough because we really don't know what we're gonna see, and and Garoppolo looked horrific. You heard the practice reports, and then he looked passable in week three of the preseason, so we really don't know. This is one where if I was forced to make a pick, I would take the
Bucks laying one. But it's a game that I really as I tried to analyze, I just couldn't get a good feel for it. It strikes me, you know, kind of a pick them maybe minus one is probably right, and I would probably take the Bucks if I had to, but overall, I think i'd probably stay away from But you know, it's certainly the Florida point, which also I think Sean brought up on our last show, and traveling cross country certainly gives me hope there for the Bucks.
For me, my second game is look, I mean, I bet against Patrick Mahomes, so I feel like I've got to keep going and get a little crazy here and bet against Drew Brees in primetime. I'm going to take the Texans plus seven at minus one fourteen. We did a bunch of shows earlier this preseason where we were picking division winners and playoff teams and potential Super Bowl winners, and I was really really high on the Texans pretty
much even before the Andrew Luck news. They have a very tough schedule and their offensive line was questionable, to be generous frankly, but I had enough optimism that there was going to be some growth here overall. Now they've had this crazy, crazy, crazy preseason where they've traded Clowney and they've lost Lamar Miller, but they've added Duke Johnson and Carlos Hide and Kenny Stills and most importantly Laramie Tunsel and our last show, I agreed that, you know,
we just couldn't understand why the line was high. I sort of pegged at it more like five and a half or something, if I was going to pick it out of a hat. Now, if you want to hear more of the reasons why I think that's too high, I mentioned them on our last show. Do I think the Saints should be favorite? Of course, of course they should not by seven, which again is one of those key numbers. Even without Clowny. The Texans still love JJ Watt.
I'm expecting Whitney Merciless to bounce back. I love the addition of Duke Johnson, but really, most of all, it's Tunsil who's going to really solidify that line. Now the betters slightly agree here, but not overwhelmingly.
So.
The number of bets is about fifty to fifty, with more like a sixty forty split in terms of the actual money coming in in favor of the Texans. With that spread, that's not really anything significant enough where I'm going to draw any conclusions. Now, if it dropped to six and a half, I'd probably still like the Texans, and I do think that there would be value there, but I'm not sure I would be including them as one of my best bets. As a touchdown though, I
will take that. And the experts are pretty split on this. On bettingpros dot Com, it's about fifty five percent siding with the Texans. So what do you think crazy to go against Breeze in primetime or what?
No? I like that pick. You're picking against the eighths. I hate that Saints are releast favorite team, but yeah.
I know you're letting your your Falcon fandom, you know color.
I think I even started the show saying you shouldn't be biased when you're betting on sports, and then.
You are breaking your own rule. Had you not come up with a name for this segment, I would end this podcast right now.
No, but I do like to pick, and a lot of the points that you made I agree with. A big thing. The Saints can't stop the pass as well, and I think the Texans have it a couple of two of the best receivers in the league and DeAndre Hopkins will Fuller, who I think is extremely underrated. He was having a great breakout year last year until he got hurt yeah, I think seven points is just is just too much.
I think it's just too much. It's just too much. It's got to be below it's got to be below that key number. I I don't get it. It does make me nervous, but you know, and you I could say there is a scenario where, you know, the Saints come out and just go bonkers. But really the Texans
are good. They're and you know, I'm not optimistic on their future, you know, in future years, given what they've they've done this season, but overall, for what I like coming into this game, I just it's it's got to be less than a touch.
And I don't think the Saints defense is good enough. That's going to hinder them all year, I think, And I mean, you need a good defense to cover these big spreads because there's always the chance of the back door cover, which absolutely into one too many times. So yeah, I definitely like the Texans there.
All right, who's your third pick?
Okay, So my third pick, we're going to go to the AFC East. I'm taking the Bills at plus two point five over the Jets. The Bills are on the road, so plus two point five's at minus one oh nine right now. So when you're talking about the AFC East, obviously have the Patriots at the top of the division the Dolphins at the bottom. It's those two middle teams that have a lot of questions about them. They both have two second year quarterbacks. But I just like the
Bills a little bit more. Actually think the Bills are going to be a surprised team this year. I wouldn't even be totally surprised if they snagged one of the last wildcaret spots there. I like Josh Allen better than I like Sam Darnold. I just think they have a few more weapons. I think they have a better defense. If you look at how they performed last year, neither offense was great compared to the rest of the league. The one big difference, though, is that the Bills defense
was actually half decent. They're they're just about middle of the pack and just about every defensive category, whereas the Jets defense was still one of the worst. So I like the Bills. I think they have some weapons. I mean, they're on the road, but really from Buffalo, New York, I don't even that's hardly even a road game whatsoever. I really like one edition that I haven't really heard too many people talk with that I really like for them this year is Cole Beasley. I think that he
was under used when he was in Dallas. I think he's gonna be a big weapon for them this year. I think he's gonna help Josh Allen ode a lot. So I wish I could have got this number plus three, that key number, that field goal number, but I don't hate them at the plus two point five numbers. So that's my third pick.
Yeah, it's an interesting game. First of all, the Jets fan so I take great offense, kiss and you're it's really hurting, But I have no problem for it. I didn't have a great feel for this one either. I'm surprised, you know, to me moving off three to two and a half, that would have scared me. Here, do you think the Bills are gonna win? Outright? Out of curiosity? Would you, you know, go for a pick them and take you know, the the plus money I do.
I'm I'm actually gonna sprinkle their money line as well. I think they're gonna win this game.
Yeah, I think I think it's fair. I think I don't really know what to expect again. Week one is so difficult because we really don't know what to expect the Jets. You know, they have a pretty terrible secondary overall. I mean, you know, Jamal Adams is great, but you know, really other than that, they really kind of struggle back there. Tremaine Johnson has been a disappointment. They really didn't get much depth there. So you know, Alan who may not
be that accurate, but he's got a big arm. I love your point about Beasley because you know, everybody's been talking about, you know, John Brown, who I also love, but Beasley is really a guy who can kind of open things up in the middle while Brown and Foster are going deep. So it's an interesting pick for me. Don't you get worried a little bit about division games?
I mean, these teams. You know, it's new coaching staff of course for the Jets, but you know, these teams they see each other all the time, they meet all the time. Division games, to me, are always the toughest to pick against the spread.
What I don't like doing in divisional games is taking the favor. So okay, that's why that would kind of scare me more away if I was picking the Jets. But because it's the divisional game. Anything can happen in divisional games, so why not take the points?
Okay, all right, that's a fair point for me. My third one is going to be the Panthers getting two and a half from the Rams at minus one oh seven. Now, I like this a lot more when it was at three. Kind of like you, and I liked it a lot more before Cam Newton's injury. But it sounds like he's going to be good to go. In our Team Futures episode, I picked the Panthers as the best bet to win the Super Bowl given the odds they were at plus
forty eight hundred or something like that. I'm not one hundred convinced that they're going to be a good team, but I think that if they are good, they have a chance to be really, really good. Remember they were six and two before Cam suffered his injury. He adapted well to Norb Turner's offense. I love what Dj Moore and Curtis Samuel can do. And again, the defense, which
was pretty strong overall. They had some holes, certainly, but they remained strong and they've added some additional pieces like Jerald McCoy, so I think they're going to be solid if cam can stay healthy. And so the Rams are coming in and they get that cup, but they've lost some Domkin sue. There are questions around Todd Gurley. I know the recent report that came out today that he's apparently going to get a full workload, but that remains
to be seen. Their offensive line is weaker than last year, so I think the Panthers can get pressure on Jared Goff, and you saw in the Super Bowl that he is not that great at handling pressure. We just talked about what happens when West Coast teams travel to the East Coast. They usually have issues. I agree, not as strong and week one, but I do think it is going to
be something. And while I feel a little queasy about that number being under the key number of three, it's pretty clear that sharp betters are what's keeping the number here. About three quarters of the bets are on the Rams, which makes sense with then coming off the Super Bowl, But like with the Jaguars and the Chiefs, the money
coming in is actually split about evenly. And remember there are questions on Newton and the money is still split even So with that, that really tells me that sharp betters are kind of looking at the Panthers here, and with as good as the Rams were last year, remember in the first game they were losing at halftime to the Raiders at thirteen ten, I think it's fair that they may get off to a little bit of a
slow start type of beginning to their season. Now, I would love it if that line crept back up to three. I do not think it's going too based on the money that's coming in, but I actually think that the Panthers can win this game outright, So I will gladly take the two and a half. And I will point out that experts are not signing with me, well not overwhelmingly, but fifty eight percent of experts are signing with the Rams here. So what are your thoughts on that game?
Well, we officially have the entire NFC South covered for Week one with the Panthers pick.
Well, that's why I didn't even know anything about the Panthers. I was just picking it to get you riled up a little bit.
This game is almost identical to your first pick as far as it's one of the top teams from last year with a small spread. You look at it, you think the obvious pick is the Rams and you look into it more and you find that the sharp money's on the opposite side. This is a tough one. This is that one's going to be a stay away for me. Actually, you know what, I might go rams just because it is under that number of three. But I mean, once again, all the points you made were good points. I don't
know what I'm gonna see with Cam Newton. Don't forget last year, the Panthers at the very start of the year were one of the best teams in the league, and then they just kind of faltered down the stretch a little bit.
And it was really when Cam got injured. If he wasn't injured, we'd be thinking completely differently about the Panthers than.
We do at the moment because and he was injured too. By the end of the year, it was looking bad. He could barely throw football ten yards. It was rough
to watch. And then another point is with Sean McVay obviously is one of the best coaches in the league, but in Week one, I think it's tough for a really good coach to take advantage of that in Week one because he just doesn't have any game film from the other team outside of preseason that they can really use to judge and game play with so good coaches
actually get better as the season goes along. So if you're gonna pick a time for a Sean McVay led team to lose, it'd be very early in the season, or even Week one.
They were losing thirteen ten to the Raiders. I mean, it really is something. I agree. If you're going to take advantage of these teams, I think this is the time to do it. So let's just do a quick summary here. You've got the Falcons getting four from the Vikings, the Bills getting two and a half from the Jets, and the Bucks laying one against the forty nine Ers.
I like the Jaguars getting three and a half from the Chiefs, the Texans getting seven from the Saints, and the Panthers getting two and a half from the Rams. All right, good job, I love it. Pick six first pick six in the book. Oh a good job. Yeah, I'm really impressed. All right, So before we move on to our next segment, I do want to mention another
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to play games throughout the entire season. Just go to sideboss dot com, click to play the twenty nineteen Pro Football Pick Them contest and enter the promo code Betting Pros upon sign up. That's sideboss dot Com Promo Code Betting Pros. All right, we're gonna move to our next segment here, and I have an idea for the name of what this is. Now you're gonna have to tell me whether or not you can hear this, okay, because I'm the least technologically proficient human in the world. Look,
are you ready? It's did you get it?
I did?
Yeah?
It's a trap. Yeah that's good. That's good.
That's good. I did it like you have. You have absolutely no idea. How proud of myself I am for that because I completely expected not to do it. So these are games that essentially we're looking at and we're avoiding, and it's a trap. It's gonna be the name of
the segment, which I came up with by myself. So we can't give you know, the credit for everything over here, but these are we're each gonna give one game that we are basically looking at the line and we're just not really having it because it's just not something we feel good about. So why don't you start us off? What's your game to avoid?
So my game to avoid is probably the most obvious one that a lot of people would think to avoid, and that would be the Colts and the Chargers. The Chargers, right now are set as six point five point favorites, and I just I need to see what the Colts are going to be looking like without Andrew Luck. I mean, that's kind of obvious. Andrew Luck just left the team two weeks ago. He retired the team as a whole outside of obviously quarterback at this point, but the team
as a whole has got better. But just how much is Andrew Luck worth. I don't hate the Chargers there because the six and a half is that half a point under that magic number of seven. But I need to avoid it because I need to see what Jacobe Prisett's going to be like. If he plays like he did two years ago when he started for almost the whole season, then I would take the Chargers all day long. But I'm going to give him the bend of the doubt that he hasn't proved over the past couple of years.
I need to see what the Colts look like as a whole. Also, the Chargers, see they seem to cover against teams you wouldn't think they're going to cover against when they're like big point favorites. They like to allow the back door cover. So for those reasons, I will be avoiding that game on Sunday.
I think that's fine. I don't know if you've been following the line movements in this game. I mean, it was when Luck was healthy, it was at three and a half. As soon as the injury happened, it jumped to seven and a half, and then people hammered it and I fell to six and a half, and that's where it's kind of been staying. I'm more optimistic about the Colts in this game, and if it was at seven, or if it had stayed at seven and a half, I would be all over it. At six and a half,
it makes me a little nervous. I'm you know, to me the Brisset thing, I don't think Brisset's a great quarterback at all, but I mean, I'm certainly not looking at what happened a couple of years ago when he had to parachute in and learn the offense which was not Frank Reich's offense, and figure it out. He's been taking reps with the team the entire preseason. I think he knows the system. It's a better system. The Colts,
other than at quarterback, are a really strong team. And for me, the Chargers, I mean, they're kind of decimated at offensive line, they've got some defensive injury. Melbyn Gordon is not there. So for me, it's a game that honestly, if I had to pick, I would take the Colts. But it's just not something again, you said it at six and a half. It's really tough.
That's a tricky number.
That's a tricky number, and it's something where it makes you want to take the Chargers. But for me, if it was at seven or certainly seven and a half, I would be all over the Colts. At six and a half, I'm fine with avoiding that. I've got no problem with that. But again, the line movement here, pay attention to it, see how it's going to because right now it's at six and a half. It has been all over the place, including moving down since the luck news. So that's a pretty good one for me I am
going to take. And this kind of goes into what you said earlier when we were talking about division games. I'm going to avoid the Cowboys laying seven and a half against the Giants. Now, to be as transparent as possible, I took a look at the lines like eight hours ago when I was trying to come out with the bet that I was going to avoid, and the line was at seven, So now it's at seven and half, which actually kind of makes me lean a little towards the Giants, but not enough to want to touch it.
First of all, as a general rule, as we were talking about, division games are scary, and it's generally unusual for a division favorite in the first week of the season to win a game in a blowout, and the Cowboys in particular were not great last year as home favorites. These teams know each other really, really well. It's unclear what Zeke's workload is going to be. There's talk about twenty to twenty five reps. I don't know what that means.
Amari Cooper is still dealing with planter fasciitis, and yet the Giants think I'm gonna admit that. But Sekwon Barkley, Evan Ingram, Sterling Shepherd, there is enough there to score a little bit. The money coming in here is pretty split down the middle. So it's just one of those where, you know, a division matchup, I've got to feel really really comfortable with the number to make me want to get involved, and this one just doesn't do it for me, Yeah, I agree with you.
There, I'm avoiding it as well. One big thing to think about with the Cowboys too, is that they have two different factors about their team that makes me nervous to take a big spread. Number one is that they have they're very defensively oriented, so there's not a lot of points scored in Cowboys games. And they're a rushing offense. So when you run the ball more, the clock obviously goes a bit quicker, and when that happens, you don't have enough time to kind of win by more than
double digit points. So for that reason, I stay away from Cowboys when they're favored by that kind of number. So yeah, that, yeah, I agree with you. I'm not gonna better on that game either. Age if I would, I would lean Giants.
Yes, that's exactly right. And I think that that surprises people because I think everybody's gonna look and be like, well, you know, we love the Cowboys and stuff like that. But in the end, I just I really can't do it. Sixty three percent of experts are taking Dallas right now at seven and a half, so you know that is something to bear in mind. But for me, again, like you.
If I was going to take it, I would take the Giants getting the seven and a half, all right, So for our it's a trap segment for our picks to avoid. You want no part of the Chargers laying six and a half to the Cults. I want no part of the Cowboys laying seven and a half to the Giant. All right, successful, first time we ever did. It's trapped.
It's a try to go.
I mean, you're you're crushing it right now. And there you know, we didn't even talk about the NFC South.
So yeah, we're here.
Finally we're able to get off it. All right, it's time for our final segment, where we are going to break down our favorite player props from this weekend's game. I was trying to come up with something clever for this. It was like proper analysis or something like that. I've got nothing. I'm just going to go conservative here and we're just going to go with top prop. So that that's all it is. This is our top prop segment. It's our one prop bet from this weekend that we
like a lot. And admittedly there aren't you know, the full bevy of prop bets are not available in the market. Yet. There'll be a few more that will come out as we get closer to the game. But we've taken a look at what is roughly available in the market. So why don't we go ahead and start. You can what's your top prop for the weekend?
So my top prop, and I'm realizing I'm contradicting myself. I just said I was going to stay away from the Giants Cowboys game, but not with my prop. There's a prop bet that I like in the game. I couldn't find the exact number, but I'm assuming it's a I'm gonna be taking this Saquon Barkley under rushing yards for that game. I'm gonna assume it's probably gonna be around eighty four. Like I said, I don't quite see yet,
but whatever the number is, I like the under. His lowest rushing total in all of last year was against the Cowboys in Week two, so it was early in the season as well. He only gained twenty eight yards on eleven carries, and Cowboys gave up fifth fewest rushing yards per game last season. So obviously there's a lot of hype bo Barkley. He is, rightfully so one of the best running backs in the league, especially one of
the best young running backs in the league. So I think because of that, the number is gonna be higher than it should be against a Cowboys defense that can stop their run. So in that game, I like a prop bet. I like the under on Saquon Barkley's rushing yards.
Yeah, I think that's a good one because I just, you know, I don't see them being able to have that many opportunities to run. I think they'll try, and I think Saquon will be heavily involved. But if you're the Cowboys, that's what you're gonna stop. You're gonna make Eli Manning try to beat you through the air. So I do think that putting all your effort into stopping Saquon Barkley on the ground is what the Cowboys are going to do.
And I like it. I like it.
I mean I feel bad because we've been in mostly an agreement here. You know, I could try to fake it and be like, nah, dude, he's rushing for one hundred and forty, but I think it would be disingenuous. So maybe you can disagree with mine here. Okay, so really really rev up dig deep for this. It's not the South. But I'm going to go with Chris Carson to go one hundred rushing yards or more against the Bengals.
That's at plus two thirty five. Now I would be fine to take these seventy five or more rushing yards, but that's at minus one thirteen. And for the difference that you'll get on your money, I think it's more than worth it. The Seahawks are nine and a half point favorites here at home on Sunday against the Bengals. They are the most run heavy team in the NFL. They ran nearly fifty percent of the time last year.
They appear to hate Rashad Penny, and I think they're going to go to Carson early, and I think they're going to go to Carson late once they're ahead and trying to put the game on ice. He had over one hundred yards rushing in each of his life last three games last year. I think the fact that you can get nearly two and a half times your money on this wager struck me as pretty crazy. So it is my top prop of the week by far. Go ahead and hate it, fake a disagreement, or do something.
I don't love it. I don't hate it, but I don't love it.
Who whoa who? I was kidding. I mean, you've got to get on board, all right? Go ahead?
No?
No, no, go ahead, go ahead bye.
I guess a couple of my biggest questions would be, I don't know, how are the Seahawks going to kind of divvy up their their carries? Is Chris Carson? Is he going to be the workhorse for them? Is Penny gonna get any carries there?
I mean it's a mild risk, but given what they have said and given what they have shown in the preseason, they appear to have no interest in getting Rashad Penny overly involved. I think this is going to be a game where Chris Carson, I think the whole season, as long as he doesn't get injured, I think they are gonna heavily push Carson. And you know, I in addition to being a betting pros on the list, I'm also you know, I do fantasy workover at fantasypros dot Com.
And Carson has been one of the biggest risers from a fantasy perspective, and a lot of that is because every indication coming out of Seattle is that they want him to just be the bell cow back, and I mean, Penny will get some, but I think, you know, as they did at the end of last year, I think twenty carries for the game is well within reach, if not more so. I think, you know, just given this game, I think they're going to go to him pretty much
the entire game. I mean, the worry, honestly, in terms of the split, would be much more of once the game is in hand, as you'd expect it to be. The Seahawks are nine and a half point favorites. As I said that, maybe they would say, Okay, let's save our guy here, let's go to the backups. But other than that, I really think that he is going to be He's going to get the vast majority of the carries.
Yeah, And I mean the Bengals did give up the fourth most rushing yards in the league per game last year, so they can give up yards in the ground, and like you said, Seahawks are probably gonna get up so they will have to run the ball. So my only concern would be just how they're going to split the carries. That would be my one concern. But other than that, I like it, especially at that price too.
You see, you see I pushed you in. Yeah, you take it. And again a big thing is the price. I mean, plus two thirty five seems crazy to me. Basically getting two and a half times on your money seems crazy to me. For a guy, it's not like one hundred yards is this magical number. He did it his last three games last season, and everything coming out of them is that they love him. I think he's going to get all the work. I think they're going to run, run, run as much as possible. So I
do like that. So you like Saquon Barkley. Again, the number is a little fuzzy. It's somewhere in the low eighties. We put it at eighty four, probably to be generous because I think it might be around right around there. But it's going to be in the low eighties. And you like under which I think is a good pick. And I like Chris Carson a little more specific to go one hundred rushing yards or more against the Bengals. And that said, plus two thirty five, all right, man,
that is going to do it for today's show. That was really great. Ian. I remind everyone where they can find you and your work.
Yeah, so you can find me on Twitter. That's where most my work is posted. There, we at least get links to everything there, so my tag is AI Nmacos and then of course head over to odds Shark doc Off for any betting information there, and I do have some occasional articles up there, but for the most part, you'll see everything I do, including all my written stuff in videos over on Twitter.
You can also find him at my house this weekend where he's going to be laying some betting odds on the kid's soccer game. As I said, well, that was really enjoyable. I thought your picks were solid. I really did not disagree with many, if any of them at all. I'm sorry about that. Next time I will definitely force some disagreement, but I hope we can do it again during the season.
Yeah. Absolutely, man, it's a lot of fun. Good luck to both of us this weekend.
Absolutely so. I do want to remind everyone before we go about bet MGM, where you can place your first waiter of up to one hundred dollars risk free, and Sideboss, where they're offering a free to play season long NFL handicapping contest with fifty thousand dollars in cash prizes. Good luck with your wagers this weekend, my friends. We'll be back breaking down the early lines next week. That the fact that have not been not