Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adie. The NFL Draft is about to be here, thankfully we will have something to focus on in this crazy world that we're in. With me to break down some of our favorite prop bets is my good friend Rich Ryan. You can find him over at the grid Iron Gamble podcast and on Twitter at rich t Ryan.
Rich How are you gambling? It's something, right, are you?
Are you going crazy on Madden simulations or anything like that?
You know, I picked up NBA two K kind of when this whole thing was starting, and I've been grinding that a little bit. But no, the simulating, my favorite is the folks that are simulating like old games. I'm talking like NCAA basketball game, and I guess old is a relative terms and sign. I'm in my young thirties, but I'm talking like mid two thousands college basketball games
and just throwing it up. But yeah, you could tell last night, recording this on a Monday morning, how thirsty everybody was for just even a semblance of sports as we all live. Tweeted the Michael Jordan documentary.
It was pretty amazing though, right, I mean, I don't think they oversold it. It had so much hype coming into it, but I think it pretty much delivered for the first two episodes.
Oh and behind the scenes, the team that's doing this or doing amazing work. This was supposed to be delivered in June. Evidently the last five episodes haven't even been completed yet in the editing bay. So the time and effort that these guys are putting in to cut this and something that you know, we're enjoying it now, but I mean, this is gonna last, you know, many lifetimes beyond this as kind of the the documentary about Michael Jordan.
For them to be under that time crunch is pretty incredible.
Yeah, they're doing an amazing job. It really did deliver, at least the first two episodes. I'm sure the rest will be great. I'm excited to show it to my son, who is obsessed with Lebron because he is obsessed with all great athletes, he's pretty much a front runner. I'm excited to show him, you know, teach him about Michael Jordan through this with you know, the the edited version of it, which doesn't have.
Version of I mean, he's six, so we have to be careful.
But anyway, all of that was a nice little return to sports, shall we say. But now we've got something tangible, We've got something real. We've got the NFL Draft.
It's gonna be weird. Okay, it's gonna be.
Really really weird with everyone doing it remotely, everyone on zoom and calls, and I'm really kind of secretly hoping that they're going to be various technical mishaps and stuff like that, just because it'll be fun to watch. But either way, everyone is going to be watching it, and everyone is finally going to have something real to gamble on. So that's what we're going to do today. We're going
to talk about some of our favorite prop bets. We're gonna be using the consensus lines as we always do. Over at bettingpros dot com. You can get the draft props one at Bettingpros dot com slash Draft hyphen props. You can see there's a whole range of things, as I'm sure Rich will also be doing. You know, you can do specific players or teams or whatever you want to do. So we're gonna go through just a few of our favorite ones here and we'll see what happens
out of curiosity. Rich you correct me if I'm wrong, and please don't take this the wrong way. You've been on this podcast several times. You are a Jets van.
Correct?
Unfortunately, Yes, as am I. So I mean named after the great Richard Todd. A lifetime of misery. Yeah, my father is an insane person, somehow convincing my mom to name me Richard Todd Ryan. But yes, a lifetime of misery thirty two years so far, and a lifetime beyond this undoubtedly.
Well I've got thirty nine, so I'm beating you there. But yeah, out of here, do any of your favorite props have to do with the Jets.
I had to come on, I had to Jets.
Then we'll save it. Then we'll save it. That's fine.
I was going to ask you whether or not you had anything fun if they weren't one of your props, but I assumed you were going there.
So anyway, you can start us off Jets or not.
But what's your first one that you're looking at here?
So this part of draft season is very intriguing to me because if you take the long view, if you look at the predictability of the draft. At the beginning, there's two axises, right, there's player evaluation and then they're sourcing. And as we progress through this process and get closer to the draft, the sourcing element of this, in my opinion, becomes more important than the player evaluation because these reporters, these beat guys, they do a great job of talking
to people within organizations. That's why sometimes you see betting odds so high. I mean, just look at Burrow and Chase at the beginning of the draft, Chase Young. The odds are astronomy that they're going to be selected in the places they are, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that these organizations have tipped their hand or they've been transparent to a reporter or two throughout this process. And in the last couple of days, it seems quite evident that the NFL is quite cold
on to a Taga Viola. And that's the last time I'll attempt his surname on this.
Just to be clear, I'm very impressed that you did it even once, because I just I don't know, two months ago. I mean, I can do it because I have to be able to do it, but I have just completely stopped lest I mess it up. So I've just been to it so already. The fact that he did it once, I'm impressed.
And it's it's not the wonderlick, right. That whole story is a bit of a clown show. He took it in twenty eighteen, got a thirteen. He just retook it. He scored a nineteen. The average is a twenty. So let's get that crappy narrative out of here.
Also, by the way, just to be clear, I mean Lamar Jackson. Realize that Lamar Jackson is primarily a runner, but he also scored a thirteen. So even if that were the case, I thought it was completely overblown personally. But yes, it's either way, it's been essentially debunked.
Yeah, so let's get that out of here. It's more to do with the hip and the medical and during these crazy times, how uncertain NFL teams are surrounding him. So, based upon the evidence that I'm seeing from reporters and sourcing and not the player evaluation, the first prop bet that I'm going to offer is Tua as the third
quarterback drafted at plus one point fifty. I think it's quite clear that he is going to quote unquote fall now, whether that be to eighteen, which I saw one Detroit Free Press writer say yesterday their sources were alluding to. I don't know about that, but him falling to even six, to that spot to the Chargers would be a precipitous fall from where we thought two was going to be
selected just a few weeks ago. So I'm going to lead it off quarterback, the most sexy position, Tua going third at plus one hundred.
So I do like it. I'm buying this.
You know, everything that's coming out, and again you talked about it, that's part of what we're doing. I mean, maybe with the Jets, but other than that, will probably basically be breaking this down as a lot more sourcing as opposed to what we think maybe should happen or you know, who we think is the best and stuff like that, because that's really irrelevant when you're talking about draft props. What we want doesn't matter. But yeah, I'm buying this. I don't think eighteen. I did see that
as well, that that tweet that came out. I'm not buying that either, But I think as a third one and I'm just gonna point this out and believe me, this is in no way faulting you whatsoever, because this has happened to me six times today to talk.
About where we are, which is why.
You really need to move as soon as you get an inkling on what you want to do. The consensus odds right now have dropped to even on to A being the third quarterback, and you had it at plus one fifty. I believe it's now even. I still see. I'm looking at the various books. You can get it at plus one fifteen at william Hill, plus one ten at points Bet. But for the most part it's down to even because that's probably what's going to happen at this point.
So I like it.
So I have a tuo prop as well. I'm going to throw it in here to get on with you. I agree that'd be one that I would go at for me if I'm going to get a little I don't know. Let's call it sexier to the extent you can invoke sexier when you're talking about the Jaguars. I'm going to go to to the Jaguars, which currently is at plus five hundred. It was at you right. You can get it higher at various places. You can get at plus seven hundred at a variety spots. But I'm
buying the talk of him sliding for sure. I think that that's true. And you know, I'm just not sure at this point that you really want to risk if you're the Dolphins, if you're the Chargers, if you really want to risk that spot. I mean, there are a lot of quarterbacks this draft. You know, they're varying levels of confidence in how good their careers are going to be.
But if you're gonna take him at five, take him at six, you've got to be really confident that this guy is going to be able to succeed in the NFL.
And with all the stuff that's.
Going on, especially in his short term but all the reports going on about his health, I think he is gonna slide. And so that's why I do like your bet. But where is he going to slide to? To me, man, it is just hard to see him getting past the Jags at nine if he does, because the Jaguars are not competing this year. If ever, there was essentially an outright tank that's basically what they're doing. And I know they have minshoes, So he's certainly the quote unquote answer
in the short term, but it's a splash. Man con likes to make the splash. It's long term.
He can look that way.
It would you know, whether you know, bring fans, which may not be happening this year, but it would garner more interest in the team. So to me, at nine with the jagsonding there, that's just where I think who is gonna wind up going If he does fall now, I don't know, he still could go six to the Chargers. The Chargers could trade up to get Herbert, and he could go five to the Dolphins. You know, who knows
at this point. But for me, you know, if you're getting you know, plus five hundred, it wasn't as great. I got it when it was plus seven hundred, and you can still get that at some places. But at plus five hundred to the Jags, that's still one and I'm willing to, you know, dip my toes in the water a little bit.
Yeah.
Evan Silva, the famed Evan Silva, who I believe had the third most accurate mock draft last year according to you guys at Fantasy Pros, has this to a going to the Jags at nine and logically, it makes sense if you were to slip past that five and six spot the Dolphins and Chargers respectively. Look the Panthers, It's not like Teddy Bridgewater is the best, but they gave.
Him a ton of money.
I don't think the Cardinals are going to Josh Rosen Kyler Murray. I think we can sidestep back. And then you look at the Jags and it doesn't seem like there's a consensus even between the sourced members of the community as to what they're gonna do with that ninth pick. And you mentioned Sead his son is a very analytical guy.
Runs Fulham Football club over in England as well. Loves things like DVOA and football outsiders, which you might not think of when you think of the Jags, and now they've performed as of late, but a very analytical team running that football division. And it wouldn't shock me to see them quote unquote punt on this year to rehab somebody as talented as Tua Can.
I throw another real curveball out at you and just want to know what you think of this. Is there any chance am I just being crazy? What about for Tua in this specific team? What about the Pats at plus two thousand. I mean, look, they are, you know, apparently going with Stidham, but they don't get the chance to draft one of these great quarterbacks. They did wind up with Jimmy, who they of course traded away, and
of course everybody knows how late they got Brady. But you don't get the chance to draft a guy like this if you're the Patriots, because unless you're willing to forego all your draft capital, they probably would have to trade up to do it. You know, even with him sliding ta teen, they need to trade up. But you can trade up. They have a lot of picks this here. You can trade up without giving up that much any chance there? Or is that something too crazy for you?
It just doesn't seem like something Bill would do. Trading back?
Is this mantra He's He's understood faster than anybody that the NFL draft is about darts, and as many darts as you can throw, the more successful you're going to be the king of trading back. And I just don't see him packaging equity to move up. I also think, and too Bill's credit all the success that he's had. I think he's a bit arrogant as to who could
succeed on his team in this system. They really seem to peoples that full steam ahead with this Stidham thing, which any other of the thirty one organizations it would seem mind blowing.
But right, could Bill do it? I don't know.
Maybe Matt Castle in eleven and five.
No, enough with the Matt Castle thing, all right, when you if you give Stidham, Randy Moss and Wes Welker, we'll talk about it. But right now, especially with what they have at wide receiver, you know, I always I always think about that this year is gonna be fascinating with the Patriots anyway, just to see. But yeah, I don't know, and the inkling of of sort of maybe that could happen or something, because again I don't necessarily think that it would require that much draft capital to
move up. I'm talking if he slips and if somehow he slips past the Jags at nine, maybe they don't want to do it.
Maybe they love Minchu Mania, you know.
If he if he does slid it slip into the late teens, I feel like it might not take all that much to move up. But again I'm trying to have some fun. Okay, we've got you know, this the one thing that we can really bet on. But anyway, all right, so we've both got our Toua props out of the way, which he had to figure we'd both have at least one.
What's your next one?
We yeah, just real quick, if you think we're both way off base, if you think the player evaluation is so strong that there's no oh shot that these teams are going to pass up a talent like to despite the hip injury and despite some of the confusion as to his medical I think the pivot there is to a going third at plus five hundred. If these teams are still in love with him, that trade is there to be made with Detroit. So that's if you think
we're wrong. Value is probably there to a third overall plus five hundred, but I'm going to go to another player third overall. And this is kind of like when you build your Super Bowl props. You think of a story as to away the game is going to go, and then you select your props based upon that to try to get full leverage. And if I believe that the to A market is cold and that he will drop and no teams will be trading up for Justin Herbert because the whole market's cold. There's no reason to
jump up to get Herbert. I'm gonna take Jeff Okuda as the third player selected. Plus one twenty five is the consensus odds. It's plus one fifty on DraftKings. If you want to do a little price shopping the Detroit Lions.
It just moved, By the way, this is not a joke.
I looked at this because it's part of one of my recommendations, which I'll get into in a second. But it just moved back to one fifty the consensus line.
So there you go.
But it was at plus one twenty five an hour ago. By the way, that's a really great lesson in terms of trying to, you know, make sure a lot of this stuff as more information is coming out. By the way, this one maybe not because it's back and forth, but a lot of you know, the bets that I'm gonna recommend, you know, three days ago, you know, the price was was much better that you could get them now because
of all the intel that's coming out. But this is one again that's not I don't think that's necessarily specific.
The difference between one fifty and one twenty five.
Not a huge deal here in this context, at least for for everything that you're hearing. But that is a good lesson that you should always be shopping for the best line anyway, Go ahead, Okudah third plus one fifty.
Yeah, the lines tore apart their secondary. Traded Quandre Digs mid season to the Seahawks last year, traded Darius Lays the Eagles in the off season. Here, from what scouts are saying, this Ohio State kid is just a plug and play starting cornerback in the league. No worries sticking him in as a starter right away, Patricia defensive guy. The fit seems really appropriate for that team.
Uh.
And again this is all based upon nobody trading up for a quarterback, which if two is sliding, I think will happen. So yeah, give me Okudah thitter overall plus one fifty now.
Yes, one fifty, even better than you were recommending. H Yeah, I think that that's probably gonna wind up being the pick. I think Okuda is gonna probably go to the Lions, and he's probably gonna be at three. But I will say that I have another possibility here, and based on the price, I kind of like it, and that's Derek Brown. Now I've got I've got two here with Derek Brown. Okay, I've got him going at three, which is at plus
seven hundred. Although no, all right, so this is that refrigitimate legitimately, this is probably what is happening, and this probably explains why the odds on Okudah are better. Right before we went on this podcast, right before, I looked at the odds to make sure I had the most recent odds, and I did, and Derek Brown was at plus seven hundred to go third overall.
He's now at.
Plus five hundred, and I think that that's probably why the corresponding move is to Okudah. Going from plus one twenty five to plus one fifty is necessarily although actually that might even not make it. But regardless that Brown is now at plus five hundred to go third overall, because I think there's some buzz about him potentially going to the lines.
I mean, look, they need a cornerback.
As you adequately laid out, but they have also not goodness, please don't act like this is a comparison, but they have Desmond Trufon. It's not like they just gave away Sleigh, so they did add somebody they need help on defense. I know sacks last year twenty eight. I believe total they need somebody who can rush the rush of the passer. Brown is getting a lot of buzz right now going on.
So I could see, you know, in a in a relatively deep cornerback draft, I could see the Lions basically saying, you know what, we're gonna not even training away themselves, staying at three and taking Brown. It's at plus five hundred. I don't love it quite as much with that. I liked it when it was at plus seven hundred. But the other Brown one, I'm gonna say, and I'm gonna need to check to make sure this hasn't moved either, because this has been moving crazy.
Is under pick eight and a half.
So it was when I checked at minus one seventy seven. That's still a pretty steep price, but a couple of days ago it was at minus one thirty four, so you could have gotten it there in our consensus lines. But for me, I think there's a really good shot that the Lions take them at three. Even if they don't, it's just really hard to see him getting past pick eight. You've got Carolina at seven, they obviously need to revamp
their defense. You've got Arizona at eight, and this is moving on this number eight and a half pretty big going on. So there's a lot of buzz around Brown, whether be a three, whether it be at seven, whether it be at eight. The line is at eight and a half. So for me, I would put some even at plus five hundred, which is not nearly as good on Brown going third overall, and I'd also put you know, a bigger bet. It's minus one seventy seven on Brown going before pick eight and a half.
Yeah, the price isn't as great, but the move should instill some confidence, right, The late move is always the right move.
Absolutely. Hold on.
I'm gonna check as we talk right now, just to make sure because if this moved even more, I'm gonna be really upset. No, Okay, it's still minus one seventy seven, but the over has moved to plus one forty five, which is a bigger move as well. So yeah, I mean, there's a reason that the juice moves the way it is, and it's because of the same intel that Rich and I are talking about. So anyway, so that's for me, I could see Brown going at three. I kind of
liking that right now. Though again, at plus five hundred, that's not good enough at this point unless something major leaks out. But certainly under eight and a half is something I feel confident. All right, what do you got next?
All right? Well?
He finished.
I reference this earlier the Fantasy Pro's mock draft rankings. He finished in the fifties.
A lot of people.
Don't like him. He's got a good impersonation. But mel Kiper knows things about the New York Football Giants. He had Daniel Jones going to them last year. Everybody thought he was crazy. And once again, the Giants are selecting high. Once again, Dave Gettlman refuses to trade backwards because that's something that he will seemingly never do.
He's got the binder, though, Man, he's got that giant binder on his desk. Why trade back you have all the information you need.
And once again, mel Kiper's going off the board with the Giants pick. Everybody thinks, and this is probably correct, they should go offensive lineman. Ye, he's got Isaiah Simmons, the versatile linebacker from Clemson, do it all guy. He could even sneak back and play box safety. And right now that price is plus three to fifty and as we noted, while I was doing research this morning, it was plus four hundred, So the market is moving in
the other direction. Why would the Giants not select an offensive lineman when they have so much equity in Barkley and Daniel Jones. I don't know, but mel Kiper seems to have the finger on the pulse of Dave Gettlelman. So give me Isaiah Simmons first Giants player selected.
Well, I mean, that just blows a hole in my next one, but you know whatever, that's fine, all right. So Kuiper has come out with it, and okay, he's got his finger on.
The pulse if you want to say that.
Look I had You know, it doesn't have to be the Giants, but I was thinking it would be the Giants. It doesn't necessarily blow it up. But I was going to have the first offensive lineman drafted as Jedrick Wills
at minus one twenty. And to me, you know, you've got the four big offensive linemen right now, right, You've got Wills, You've got Werfs, you've got Thomas, you've got Becken Beckden probably is going to be the last of the group, you assume now with his off the field issues, you really got the big three.
You can go any which way with it.
I mean, Wurfs's is plus one pint eighty right now, Thomas's plus four hundred. Unless I've missed something again in the last ten minutes. That's sort of changing these odds. I thought he was going to go to the Giants. Now, look, mel Kuipers, there are a million mock drafts, and yeah, he wasn't that accurate last year or anything like that. That's not going to change us early the way I feel. But the odds are moving. If the juice is moving,
that that could indicate something. But to me, look, it strikes me as him as Will's going to the Giants.
They've got the whole Alabama, you know.
Patriots jojud sort of connection which has always seemed to work. You draft a franchise quarterback, you really need to protect them. To be fair, Simmons would do a lot for their team. They need help pretty much everywhere, but you really need help on the offensive line, and to me, Will's is really the guy, and the odds again with the intel, have been moving towards Wills lately. They really they've they've just got to do something in the end, even if
they don't, even if they don't. Okay, so we're talking not saying he's gonna go number four, not saying he's necessarily going to go to the Giants, just that he's the first guy drafted. If the Giants do go to Simmons, the next one up would probably be.
My guess is Arizona.
They'd probably be looking at something they really need to shore up their right tackle. Right they've got Humphreys on the left. He could slide right in there. He wouldn't need to learn a new position or anything like that. He knows exactly how to play it. So for me, I think he's going to be the first guy off the board. I'm still sticking with my prediction that it's
going to be on the Giants. But even if not, I still think that he's going to go before Wurf's and Thomas, who I think will probably go two and three.
Look, everything you're saying makes a lot of sense. You know, if I was in that position, I would either be trading back or securing that offensive line as well. When I've got Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.
But you're not tave Gettleman, Gettleman. No, I get it, I get it, you know, and again you don't. You don't need the Giants to take them to be right on this pick. Right, I mean, I'm assuming that they're gonna but even if not, I think Wills is a guy who look, they're all really really good. Okay, the big four, they're all really good. Any one of them can step right into the NFL and play probably an
elite level. But to me, I think Wills is you know, whether you know Worf's may be a little more polished, but especially you know, he can he can step right in at right tackle and be ready to go from day one. So it's hard to see him getting past to me Arizona if he goes there, And I don't think somebody's gonna be selected before that. So I'm still good with Will's first offensive linemen selected at minus one twenty.
Let's keep it on the offensive lineman trained, okay, and I will take the over on six and a half's offensive linemen selected in the first round. This is the first bet that I'm offering where you're paying a little bit of juice minus one p fifty five is the consensus odds. But you brought up the first and most important part of this to me is that not only are those top four worfs Willis, Becton Thomas probably going to in the first round, They're probably gonna go in
the first half of the first round. So then we only need to sneak through three more guys in the last sixteen picks. And there's a handful of offensive lineman where you have to pay juice on DraftKings to bet that they will be drafted in the first round. The highest amounts of juice you're paying are minus five hundred for Austin Jackson and minus three thirty five for Josh Jones.
And then you have Caesar Ruiz, Ezra Cleveland and Isaiah Wilson that you have to pay juice for, as well a lot of offensive line needy teams in the middle late selections of the first round, Dolphins, Vikings, Seahawks, and I would even lump in the Titans and Ravens in there. Yeah, who lost to Conklin to the Browns for the Titans and then yonda to retirement for the Ravens. So offensive line is so important even good teams. It always helps you.
Look at the Eagles last year, if they went strength on strength by selecting a leftie even though they already had Jason Peters at the position. I think you can't go wrong by selecting some of these guys. And yeah, I like the over round six and a half.
Yeah, I don't disagree with it. And I think you bring up a really good point, which has again the big four. Yeah, they're all going to be gone in the first half of the draft, so you really only need three more. Everybody needs offensive lineman. It's a good draft for it. It's a deep draft, so I like it, but I'm gonna be willing to pay so much more on this next one that I'm gonna go to. And again, I'm gonna give you a little bit of an offshoot for it, and that's under four and a half quarterbacks
in the first round. Now you know the big three, we've talked about them already. You assume Jordan Love is probably gonna go in the first round, So then you've got Easen You've got from I like Hurts personally, I mean, I think he's got a lot of upside, but they're not going to go in the first round. Now, look, everybody knows that, which is why the odds are astronomical. It's minus five sixty for the under, so let's talk
about it. You're winning eighteen dollars essentially on one hundred dollars bet, so that's not really something that's gonna wow anything. I mean, it's it's as safe as they come. But I'm gonna throw out another one because of that, and that's Jordan Love over pick nineteen and a half.
That's at minus one seventy seven, So that's still just pretty good.
I don't love Jordan Love, to put it frankly, and I again, I know this is much more about the intel that you know we're getting from teams, and there seems to be a little bit mixed here with Love. But for me, it just I cannot see him going that early. There's really one possibility absent somebody training up for him, which I really don't think, and that's the Raiders, who would be at nineteen. And I just don't think that that's what the Raiders are gonna do right now.
I know they're not in love with car. They do have Mariota, but they're a competitive team right now. I think they're over under a seven and a half. You can obviously see them beating that pretty easily if things go right.
They've got two.
Picks, you know, in the time, so they can add two real playmakers to help them this year. So I really don't think that that's gonna happen. So after that, you know, you've got the Jags at twenty if if you know, they don't go with Tua and nine. In my one of my earlier selections, you've maybe the Patriots is twenty three, but either way, all that's going to be past pick twenty.
So it's really for me.
I can't see a team training up to get Jordan Love, so it's really for me whether or not the Raiders are going to take them in nineteen, and I just I feel pretty confident given you know, the Raiders were, you know, somehow in playoff contention all last year. They're gonna and that was with Antonio Brown dropping out right before the season started. So right now they get a little more time to prep. Of course, they've already got Mariota as their backup or you know, whatever you want to call it.
QUB competition. You've got two top twenty picks.
I think it's something where they're going to be able to possibly make some Nois this year, and I think that's where they're going to be focused on rather than their quarterback.
Of the future.
So for me, give me over nineteen and a half Jordan Love and that is minus one seventy seven.
Yeah, I like both of these. I mean, in what world are hurts or Easan going in the first round just doesn't seem likely whatsoever. And but that juice is it's grossy, it's crazy.
I mean, you're not you You're risking one hundred dollars to win eighteen. That's crazy. And again that's been getting worse. But I mean that it's a crazy bet. But still, you know, it is something that it's pretty much as much of a lock as you could have coming into this.
And with regards to Jordan Love, look, he's a project. You know, he's he's got tools, but he misses layups. And you cannot be a starting quarterback in the NFL if you miss your layups. And which one of these teams is positioned to take a project? We're in a really weird space right now in the NFL. I think the first time in my lifetime where the supply of quarterbacks is outpacing the demand from these teams. Guys Jameis
Winston and Cam Newton don't have a job. Andy Dalton is a lane duck quarterback who the Bengals are having trouble giving away. So if you're going to take a project like Jordan Love, you don't have to spend first round equity on it. And I think these teams are going to realize that.
Yeah, and that's the thing.
If you're gonna go below nineteen and a half, I mean, none of the teams who are picking at that spot need a quarterback, you know, even if you go you know, you got you know, the Browns.
The Jets, You've got the Raiders.
Of course, as we just said, the forty nine Ers, the Bucks, the Broncos, the Falcons, none of them is in the market at this point for a quarterback.
So I don't.
See any way that he's going to go, you know, under twenty. So again, it's minus one seventy seven. It's not like you're getting a particularly good price on it. But I again, I feel pretty confident that that's how it's gonna it's gonna shake out. All right, what do you got for your next one?
All right, let's go j Ets.
Okay, I've been waiting for it.
Their first pick is going to be an offensive lineman. I've been going back and forth as a fan. Would I love to see Jerry Judy Ceee Lamb in a Jets Jersey?
Absolutely? I would.
We need to get Sam Darnold some weapons. But everybody's been banging the drum for months that this is the deepest wide receiver draft they've ever seen, So we can probably and I say the Royal wee, we can probably address the position later in the draft, even in the second round, with guys like Denzel Mims, Chase Claypool. I mean, this wide receiver class is fantastic. Joe Douglas, former offensive
lineman GM understands the need to solidify the position. Connor McGovern, Greg Van Rotten, they're nice, but they're both interior linemen. Greg fant He's not the answer at left tackle. So I like the Jets first pick offensive lineman plus one hundred, and I'll add to that that I like them getting Andrew Thomas. I like the price at plus six hundred.
My only worry is what you brought up about the off field issue for Beck, maybe Thomas going a little abecton and Thomas going a little higher than people were thinking right now. But I mean, the fit's perfect right tackle early at Georgia had to flip when Isaiah Winn was drafted. Two great seasons at left tackle. And people that play mad and think that you can just switch tackle position that easily, but it's literally like going from left handed to right handed. Your entire brain has to swap.
So versatile player, excellent player, and frankly, i'd love for him to land with the Jets.
Do you think there's any chance about Worf's landing there or what?
Certainly, but I just Worf's wills. They all seem to be a little interchangeable, with Worf's being the preferred choice of the three. It probably comes down to Worf's and Thomas at this spot. But basically I'm just taking the highest odds here. With Thomas getting plus six.
On the spot, well, Worfs is plus seven hundred.
I mean, put a little on both, just hedge a little bit, just to make sure you're gonna get one or the other.
Oh, that's actually an excellent hedge. Yeah, yeah, because it seems you brought up the Willis pick earlier, and Willis is steaming towards certainly being the first offensive lineman. Take him and with the Beckton news, with him potentially dropping yeah at plus seven hundred. Yeah, that's a that's a that's a really good strategy to sprinkle a little bit on both and hope that one of them lands with the Jets.
Yeah, I mean, I think if the Jets are gonna I think they are going to go offensive lineman.
I agree at this point.
I mean, it would be exciting to get one of the wide receivers, but you mentioned it is a really, really really deep class for wide receivers, so I think going offensive lineman again.
You know, as you know, we'll see if Dave Gettleman understands. But you know, you need to protect your your franchise quarterbacks. So I do like that. So I'm gonna go.
You know, man, I hate to do this because it's not gonna be around one play. Everybody's gonna have to hang on till the second day, but that's going to be the first tight end drafted. Now, the consensus pick here is Comet, right, He's at minus two hundred for it and is over underpick is about I think it's forty four and a half.
So I mean that's fine.
But you know, once you get past the first round, it's just craziness. I don't think anybody can really predict what's gonna happen. I mean, nobody can predict the first round, but once you get past the first round, it's really kind of a free for all.
Comet's great, he's got a good future.
He's young. I mean he's twenty one. He's not a great blocker, and he probably is. And you know, the odds are that he's going to be the number one, But for me, I kind of like the odds a little bit better. With Alberto going, I can try to pronounce his last name Okuwei Bunham. I think everybody, you know, even even the broadcasters, call him Albert. Oh, so I'm gonna, like, like Tua, I'm sticking with Alberto, just so I don't
have to mangle the name every time. So for Alberto to be the first Titan draft, and that's plus eight hundred, you can get that higher at a bunch of different books. That's just the constant side of plus eight hundred. He's a complete frequent nature right six five two fifty eight. He ran a four forty nine forty at the combine where he really kind of upped his stock. And again, you know, he's been plagued by these shoulder injuries while at Missouri and especially last year, which kind of dinged
the stock. But you know, once you're past that first round, no rookie tight ends really make that much of an impact almost never, you know, occasionally Evan Ingram, of course, but for the most part they don't. And I think if you're looking for the biggest upside, just you know, he's so incredibly athletic that when you get there, he's the type of guy who I think teams are going to be looking for a little potentially more than comet. Again,
the odds are comet. If you were saying the odds on on both words the same, of course, i'd lean commet. But a plus eight hundred, and again that was a little higher, you know, a few days ago, so I think there might be a little buzz. I'm gonna go with Albert oh As the first tight end taken at plus eight hundred.
Yeah, not a lot of love for this tight end class in general. You talked about that under four and a half quarterback number, big juice on that zero tight ends will be taken in the first round. I should say under zero point five to be specific, minus eight thirty. So another one that if you can stomach it, right, if you're trying to cash in on something that seems pretty clear.
I haven't seen it tight mocked in like the top forty even.
Yeah, no, I mean comet is the is the lowest, and he's forty four and a half, and you know, I'd probably take the over on that, you know, But either way, there's no first round tight ends. It's almost a guarantee if there you know, if there is, I'm just gonna throw my hands up. But for the most part, that's one of the safest bets that you can make.
All Right, what do you got next to?
All Right?
So I mentioned it briefly in my Jets soliloquy that this is one of the deepest wide receiver class or so that's what we've been told, and I think we're going to see that even depress the values of the higher end receivers. Couple that with some of the love that Ruggs has been getting as of late for his speed and athleticism, and I think that there's a chance
that Ceedee Lamb goes a little later than expected. I think he's a dynamic player, I mean, just unbelievably athletic for his size, his ability to go up and get the ball.
But I just with.
These teams knowing that there's going to be value in the back end of the draft, I can see them talking themselves into addressing other areas instead of selecting receivers. So I'll take the over on twelve and a half at plus one point fifteen. Landing spots that look pretty good for him are the Broncos. I mean, if the Niners go Galaxy Brain at thirteen, that would be pretty fantastic. And really the only team that worries me, if I'm going to be honest, is the Raiders at twelve. So
this feels like a coin flip to me. But at plus one fifteen, I'm getting a bit of a weight at edge, So I'll take the weight at edge and hope that Ceedee Lamb goes past the Raiders at twelve.
So I know what that you're thinking.
The Jets are going to go offensive line, but obviously there's another position that the Jets have been rumored to be in and that is wide receiver.
I mean, is that?
Are you firmly convinced that the Jets are going offensive line here? You don't think there's any way they go wide receiver? And if they do, do you think it's going to be another one other than Lamb or are you just basically saying no, forget it. The Jets at eleven are not taking a wide receiver. They're going offensive line, So I'm not concerned about them.
I'm fairly confident that the Jets are gonna go O line. It's just the stars seem to be aligned in that direction and ahead of them. I think the only wild card really is the Jags. And I honestly couldn't tell you what the hell the Jags are doing, so I don't no. Are they gonna address the fact that they lost Kalais Campbell. They have so many holes on this roster that Brown if you were to fall, and even
Javon Kinlaw are good fits as well. Yeah, the Jags could take anybody at nine, which is kind of why I love your two.
Yes, come on, they can do anything. Take two if he follows, come on, And that's the big one.
And even if the Jets select receiver, I think there's just as high a chance that they take Judy as Lamb. So if we're sweating really the Jets and Raiders, and I think the Jets are going tackle with a slight chance they take receiver, which could be another receiver, I still think there's a pinch of value.
Yeah, I mean, I think the twelve and a half is you know, that's the reason, right, it's the Jets and the Raiders, and you know, but that is the other thing, like, not only do one, at least one, maybe both of those teams have to go receiver, but they've got to go Lamb. So you never really know which way it's going to go. So I don't hate that. Personally, I'm a little less confident. I think that the Jets are going to go offensive line. They might but and if I had to wager one or the other, I
would think offensive line. But certainly, you know, with everything I've seen, nobody seems to know. You know, some mocks I've seen have them going to have them going receiver, some have them going offensive line. So but either way, I don't know which offensive lineman, so which wide receiver so I don't hate it. What I do like is the number of running backs taken in the first round.
The over under is half a running back, and I'm going to go with the under, and it's at plus money here, it's at plus one sixty five at least last I checked.
May have changed in the last five minutes, as a lot of these odds are.
But you've obviously got Swift, You've got Taylor, You've got Domins, You've got Edward Hilaire. So you've got, you know, at least for maybe more like pretty solid running backs. Guys, you can contribute right away. But you know already what has happened with the NFL, which is essentially that running backs are fungible for the most part, and that's the way teams look at them. And you know, you get to the back end of the first round, no idea,
what can happen? Right, anybody could basically decide, oh, you know, I really want Swift. I'm gonna you know, trade minor draft capital to be able to move up a couple of spots. And then you get into the very back end of the first round and you take a running back. But I mean, you've got the Ravens, the Titans, the Packers, the Niners, the Chiefs, none of them is necessarily.
Teams of the clue.
Teams with the clue that aren't gonna take a running back.
That's correct, and that that's a more direct way of saying what I'm trying to say. So for me, look again, you it's really difficult because you know, I think the first running back that's gonna go is gonna go probably early on in the second round, is what my guess is. But so once you get to that spot, it's a little up in the air. But you know, since they're getting the plus money ongoing the under, I'd lean that way.
So I will take under half a running back being selected in the first round at plus one sixty five.
Yeah, love it.
Like I said, these teams are sharp at the bottom of the first rounds. Even Pete Carroll can't ruin this because it's so clear that they need to draft an offensive lineman.
Don't go that far. He could easily ruin this.
I'm just gonna bet at this point that that he's gonna you know, he's gonna stick with a normal draft strategy and not and not screw it all up.
But it's it's certainly possible.
But yeah, this is one again you never know, you know, when you get to this, you know, especially as it gets later in the first round, teams things get crazy, so you never really know. But I feel pretty confident that you know, because and I personally this is you know, again we talk about the intel versus our evaluation.
I don't really see Swift.
That you know much better than Taylor or Edwards Hilaire, who you know, my guy Mike Tegler really loves. I don't see that huge difference between them. So I don't really see the need for a team to try to trade out necessarily to go grab one of them as opposed to waiting for another. So anyway, for me, again, it's plus money, so that makes it more enticing. But I'll take under half a running back at plus one sixty five.
All right, let's do you got one more for me?
Yeah? One more?
I'm going to take another over. And it's a position that is kind of getting phased out right now. You speak talk about running back and how much they quote unquote matter to an NFL team, and Patrick Queen currently over twenty three and a half. It's basically even at minus one ten. He's a run stopping inside linebacker. Some of his traits are worrisome in terms of coverage, and that position is slowly getting phased out of the game.
If you're inside linebacker, if you're a predominantly run stopping guy, your utility is not as impactful is as if you are an edge linebacker that can get in there and rush the passer or a great coverage guy. It seems like if you were to do an inside linebacker comparison, people tend to like Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray over Patrick Queen, and like I said, the emphasis on edge is going to push people to take guys like Chase on a
Penza and Gross Matteos over him. The most popular position I am seeing, and this is kind of a running theme, is that he's a good CJ. Moseley replacements with the Ravens, which would be much later than twenty three and a half, and just looking at some of these teams in the middle, I don't think that they would spend a middle of the first round pick on a position with such little impact as inside linebacker. The Saints are pretty strong at
this position. The Vikings are strong at this position. I cannot see the Patriots taking a standard inside linebackers, specifically when they lost a lot of edge talent in Jamie Collins last year. So yeah, give me Patrick Queen falling down twenty three and at past twenty three at minus one ten.
Yeah, I love it. I think that's great. I do think that this has all the makings of the Ravens at twenty eight. I could see maybe at the Chiefs, you know that, you know, the last pick of the first round or something like that.
But yeah, I would really be surprised. That's a really good.
One, and I'm a little annoyed that I didn't have it on my list, but I'm going to bet it as soon as we're dumb with this podcast, which will be in two minutes. Yeah, that's a good one. I just I don't see him going before twenty three and a half. And I must have missed it, honestly, because that is that is lower than I would have expected, because I think the general consensus is, you know, the Ravens are kind of the earliest that I can see him going, so at that point and that's twenty eight,
I believe. So that's a really good one. I like it and not the most exciting one.
Yeah, random linebacker, right.
I love it. No, it's actually it's actually very very good. Yeah, that's good. All right.
I think we've given our listeners a bunch of different things to have fun with, some with really long odds, some with plus money, but a lot of different things going into Day one, maybe day two if you want to get into the tight end pool a little bit.
Hopefully Day two.
Goodness, let's not draft tight ends in round one and this one. But either way, we're gonna have something to focus on that is actual, something to gamble on which is gonna be really really fun.
But anyway, that is it for today's show.
Rich as always, it was great having on to remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Yeah, you can download the grid Iron Gamble podcast on any podcatcher you use, Apple, Spotify, Stitcher. Catch us on Twitter at grid Iron Gamble. We'll be doing our own NFL Draft props later today on Monday, so check that out.
Yeah, you'll be ready to go with all the draft props. I look forward to you sweat and your action for three straight days as crazy as it's going to be.
Well, thanks again for coming on. Everybody.
Remember don't forget to head over to bettingpros dot com to check out our consensus draft props and you can bet on obviously NFL futures and all that stuff that's over at betting pros dot com for the draft props Betting pros dot com slash draft hyphen props.
Thanks for listening. We're gonna be back next week talking about some more NFL futures. I'll talk to you then