Best NFL Bets for Week 17 | Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 632)

Andrew Erickson, aka the Undertaker. Happy Week seventeen, brother, how's the holiday?

family was good. So but I'm happy to be here today talking about the weeks because we have so many games still coming up. You know, Mayor had asked me in our slack that, hey, do you have a pick for tomorrow? I'm like, wait, is there football on Friday? Too? I was, but I wouldn't be surprised at this point. You know, in the NFL plays on every single day of the week. Anytime you look up, there may be an NFL game on. But we're here to make sure you have action on all the games you can with

Saturday and Sunday. So let's break it down, seth.

the week as well. And also before we get going, I just wanted to thank everyone who's making time for us during your busy holiday week watching here on YouTube. And if you are here on YouTube and you enjoy this type of content, please like this video and subscribe to the channel if you are new. Also please rate and review us wherever you get your audio podcast. Great. Appreciate the support not just now during the holiday season, but all year long here at BP. And also please

download the Betting pros app. It's on iOS or Android. You can use the sportsbook Sync to automatically track your bets across all major sports books in one spot. So when college football, NFL, cricket, soccer, everything's happening this week, you can track it all in one place on this Betting Pro sports betting app. So make sure you're checking out the app, guys. BP app available everywhere. But Erickson, let's get right into the pick. Starting with Saturday. You

were interested in the Broncos Bengals game. Bengals currently favored by three points. This was a really tough one for me. The Broncos been playing great, but the Bengals fighting for their life every single week.

making the postseason. But that's for Week eighteen. Week seventeen, the Bengals are going to try to win this game against Denver, and I like them the spot. I mean, the Bengals have been one of the most disappointing teams this season overall, but they've been better as of late. And one of the interesting trends I kind of found with them where I've kind of been back in them the last couple weeks, is you know, they've been much

better against some of these less formidable opponents. So they've been favored twelve times this year, including nine times by more than a field goal, and that's really kind of the only time I've been good against the spread seven to two against the spread when it's been a field goal, or more so, where you're having this line here, you're seeing it at three and a half three at most books, So I like taking the Bengals with the three. They're playing at home, this is a game that they have

to win to stay in playoff contention. They don't care about the other teams that are trying to win this game. I think the offense is still going to have success here. Denver's defense has not been good as of late, giving up a lot of points over the last couple of weeks.

So I do like the Bengals here in this spot and in Denver hasn't been as good when they've been an underdog this season, like they've been very good when the books are saying, hey, bo Nicks is a favorite we like to hear in this spot, and they've been very profitable backing bon Nicks in those situations. But as underdogs, they're just four and four against the spread and two

and six straight up. So when they've kind of been projected to lose games, I sent some of these more powerhouse teams, they have fallen short of delivering against the number. And it's like Joe Burrow three points at home against bon Knicks, Like sometimes you just got to zoom out and be like, hey, yeah, way, I feel comfortable laying Joe Burrow with the points against a rookie quarterback on

the road. Right. Sometimes it can be just that simple, especially if we know the Bengals are going to score points, right, and if bon Nicks has to drop back to throw forty times, I'll take my chances. So I like the Bengals here at home minus three.

like the analysis there from ericson. I'm gonna stick with this like fifty foot zoom level the youth throughout there, and I'm gonna take a page out of your book, actually, and I'm gonna go with an alt total paying a little bit of juice here for the Las Vegas Raiders versus the Saints alternate under thirty nine and a half points. This is minus one thirty eight at DraftKings, and I never mind buying back a couple points. I felt like thirty eight and a half where this line was set originally,

was just a little too short for me. But if Derek Carr doesn't play, this is a game between a no O'Connell and Spencer Radler. Like It's as simple as that for me. The Saints have scored under this total and two straight games without Derek Carr, and four straight dating back to two games when they had Derek Carr as well. Saints estimated practice report Alvin Kamara Derek Carr DNPS as of Wednesday, Jawan Johnson also limited. They might get Chris o'lave back, but he has not played since

Week eight. Their wide receiver corp currently mvs Cedric will and a guy named Kevin Austin Junior. So I'm not worried about the Saints or the Raiders putting up a lot of points here. The Raiders have hit this under and four straight games after losing Gardner Minshew. Those games were against way better offenses Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Jacksonville.

They also might be without starting left guard Jackson Powers Johnson, who was also estimated as an LP the other day, and his backup Jordan Meredith who was a DNP on Wednesday. So I'm gonna go with the under here in the Spencer Radler versus a O'Connell game on Sunday afternoon.

playing football, they're doing something. But even the Jaguars Raiders game, right, you looked at that and like, okay, like this can be a gross shootout. Yeah, not even close. There's just too bad quarterbacks playing bad quarterback play. So I think you're gonna get more of that here. Again, the only way I see this going over is when you get those wacky fumble six pick six year and again you know that is why it's called gambling at the end of the day. But I think the process here is

right with your rationale behind this play. So I do like the under here as well.

who's tight end one. And you look at the Patriots, So they're five and one towards the over at home this year forty six points per game, so you're seeing this total around forty two and a half forty three points at most books. So I like the over here. And it's always dangerous right when you're betting on overs when it comes to the Chargers, right because they're a team that is just like notorious for killing game totals.

They usually go shyed towards the under, but you know, eventually, hey, you have to have them kind of breakout of that understreak, right. I think they've only had one game this season on the road where they've actually gone over the total. But the Patriots, as I've indicated already, like they're the gift that keeps on giving during the festive time of the year. You just give out overs because of how bad the defense is and how electric Drake May can be making

plays downfield, making plays with his legs. You know, I see similarities between the way Drake May and Justin Herbert play, Like both really good arms can use their legs. So I think you're gonna see some some high end quarterback play here in this matchup. And that's why I like the over. Again, forty two and a half. That's not a high bar to pass in any way. This is not Vegas looking at Hey, this game is going to be a shootout by no means that are going to

be a shootout. But can't get over forty two and a half points considering the average has been forty six points against all the teams the Patriots have played at home this year. I think it can. And I also do like the fact that JK. Dobbins could be coming back for the Chargers here the explosive element they need in their running game that can definitely take advantage of a very bad Patriots run defense. So, especially with Dobbins coming back that's not considered at all in these lines.

I think he can move off some explosive runs and help get this game over the total. So it give me the over forty two and a half Patriots and Chargers.

of leagues. I like what he's done for this team, But I don't know if you feel the same but it feels kind of like a letdown spot after getting up last week in Buffalo, and I don't like the vibes in New England as a whole. DRAWDMEO. I don't want to, you know, call for anyone's job or anything like that, but called as players soft earlier this year through their offensive linemen under the bus last week as

well after that horrible play with Ramandre Stevenson. I think this is a solid matchup for the Chargers, who, as you alluded to, they might be getting JK. Dobbins back, and if they don't, they need to find a way to open up this passing game. The Patriots might be the cure to fix as well. They've allowed an eight pointy a dot that's the third highest clip and the seventh most air yards this season. They've also have the seventh fewest interceptions against quarterback seven this season. So I'm

expecting Justin Herbert to tee off in this game. Fine Laden McConkey, Fine Quintin Johnston downfield. So I'll go ahead and take the Chargers minus four against the Patriots.

Again goes back to zoom out on the coaches. Right, you got hardball against raw Mayo. Right, I don't think that we would be surprised at any Like the coaching mismatch is significant and again like Drick may but he's not quite at the level of Justin Herbert, so you see a lot of advantages. And yeah, the Patriots are playing at home. I can't remember the last time they won a home game totally. I think it might have been against the Jets. I don't honestly remember It's it's

been a while. So yeah, I think you're you're pretty safe here. Back in the Bolts.

what I mean. I'm not I'm going down swinging. So I would never do you have you ever hedged against your your favorite team? Because I will never do that.

That's kind of me betting against them, and then I'm betting for them and rooting for them by betting the game total over, which hey, that means Drake May is balling out doing things, and and again I root for turnovers and touchdowns. Like again, never can never go wrong with root for touchdowns, man, never go wrong.

earlier this season. Now that was a while ago, but just like learning you know, from looking at a lot of these spreads this year, these divisional matchups, right, they never go what it looks like on paper, like they're always way more wacky and things. And when you were given the luxury of six and a half points for a divisional matchup against the Rams playing at home, where you know they don't have home field advantage. So that's why I really it's really like less about like the

Cardinals themselves, right, because I've seen them. They're obviously disappointing, but like that's why the number is what it is, because they've been such a terrible team to want to back. And and that being said, I mean they've covered the spread eight of the last eleven road games. You look at the Rams, the team that's played on the road has usually covered their games. Nine of the last eleven games for the Rams, the road team has actually covered

the spread. Wow, the Rams have been a really good team that I've been on when they've been on the road because they've got a lot of suppressed lines as a result. But now you're kind of getting the opposite here where the Cardinals are getting no credit whatsoever despite being seven and eight, being a team that already beat the Rams this year, and yes they're out of the playoffs, but looks like James Connor's gonna shoot up in this game. They have Trey Benson. So and I mean the Rams,

what were they doing against just last week? Like that was a game that we thought could be a shootout, and then they're stalling out, they're not moving the ball, like they've had enough bad games this year. The Rams when they went on the road against the Saints, they could barely score points, went on the road against the Jets,

could barely score You're like, wait, that's going on. So they're not exactly the most consistent team either, and given that the divisional game, I just think this is too many points. Do I think the Cardinals win? No, not necessarily. I think the Rams find a way to squeak out a win. But I've seen them play teams way too close that they should have totally blown out to have confidence that they're gonna win this game by a touchdown. So I let the Cardinals here plus six and a half.

I'm gonna go to the Sunday slate for my third pick. I'm going with the Dolphins Browns under forty and a half points. And this is moving. I did see this just move. After I place this bet to thirty nine and a half, I think it's still at forty and a half at I think bet three six five if

you're over there, bet rivers as well. And I just want a way to fade the Browns against the Dolphins because Kevin Stefanski, he's a buzzkill, Like he's the guy you're not inviting to Christmas dinner because he's like, oh, let's just start. Dorian Thompson Robinson for the rest of the season, ruin everyone's fantasy hopes, whether you had Jerry Judy or Jamis or Najoku, anyone who're rolling out there.

But then I was like really thinking about it, and I was like, can I actually trust the Dolphins playing in the elements? It will be a little bit warmer in Ohio on Sunday, but there's a seventy nine percent chance of rain up along the shores of Lake Erie. So I don't trust the Dolphins. I don't trust the Browns. The Browns have averaged just nine points in the past three weeks, and that was with Jamis Winston in two

of those games. In the five games that Dorian Thompson Robinson has started, the Browns are averaging nine point six points per game. Nijoku estimate DNP. Jerry Judy limited at practice this week as well. DTR also isn't at one hundred percent with a cap, but is trending towards playing. The Dolphins also pretty banged up. They've played to the under in two straight good weather games against the forty

nine ers in Houston. Better offenses here and estimate DMPs for them included left tackle Tarryan Armstead and wide receiver Jalen Watles. So I also like the Browns under sixteen and a half team total based on DTR's previous history, But give me the under forty and a half in a weird four or five Eastern time kickoff in Cleveland. I don't know if any was gonna be at this game ericson, I have no idea, Like, if you're in Cleveland, if you're a Browns fan, are you going to this game on Sunday?

Like on Christmas, I'm so busy doing all these things, entertaining aunts and uncles while I got the Unders going, so uh yeah, we're good to go. And then you look up, you check the scores and get back You're like great. It was a great day. So yeah, the Dolphins, Man, if they were playing anywhere buck Cleveland like it, I think it'd be easy to take them against the spread, even though it's like laying almost a touchdown with them on the road. But they beat up on bad teams,

we know that. To what extent do they beat up on the Browns? Right, especially if you're playing outdoors, and even though the temperature is not a big issue, just we've seen this Dolphins. It's every single time they play someone that's a better team. So again, you know, maybe I'm not as down on them against the spread as

you are. I think again, I think again, if you're making me pick a team, I'm not taking the brown So in that way, I think that, Yeah, I think maybe the Dolphins maybe like you can do a little again, depending on what the number is where you're getting at the total, maybe you can alt the spread a little bit, bring it down a little bit Miami, you know, three and a half or four and a half or something like that, or by a field goal and then get

a better number on the total. So because they think, yeah, I think Miam's gonna win this game, not too concerned about that.

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some free prizes. Make sure you're getting invested over there with the NFL podcast group and on our VP discord community. Ericson coming right back for you. On the Sunday Slate, we got the Carolina Panthers. Who are now eight and a half point dogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I edit this show a lot, so I know you've had this back and forth relationship with the Panthers all year, like it's your high school girlfriend and you're going away

to call in the spring. So what's happening here with the Panthers? Are you back on with them?

big of a line. Look, we talk about the Buccaneers a lot too on this show, talking about Baker Mayfield. Love him as a on the road, love him as an underdog. He's not either of these in this scenario, like he is a heavy home favorite against a divisional opponent. Yep, this is way too big of a line. So this is definitely I think of all the bets we've talked about today, I think this is my favorite one. I just and we mentioned it on the early look Ahead

line between me and Joe. Joe kind of agreed with me that it seems like way too many points for the Buccaneers at home. I think their defense is terrible, Like, their defense is still so bad. We saw Brayceta have success against them already this season. And who's playing looser? Right, who's playing more tight? The Buccaneers have to win and make the playoffs, right, because they all the Falcons are breathing down their neck. But Carolina's like, dude, like we're

just We're just out here trying to have fun. Man like play spoiler, play the grinch role. So I really like And David Canl is also playing against his old team, So I really like the Panthers here in the spot. And we've already seen them play well above expectation the last seven weeks, last six games as an underdog, they've covered the Carolina Panthers and they again eight and a half points. Divisional matchup again, same reasons why I like

the Cardinals. Just a divisional matchup, eight and a half points again if I make them one pick against the spread. This week, I'm back at the Cardiac Cats.

Rourk out of Indiana something like that. Or do you think Bryce Young it is the future there in Carolina?

our really disappointing games. And he's also an undersized quarterback, So what are the elements in terms of like his injury and health. So I don't think it's ever a bad idea to always continuing to invest into the quarterback position. Again,

you want to get the best guy. And it's like goes back to the forty nine ers, right, you know, the trade up to get Trey Lance, they drafted brock Birdy, and yeah, at the end of the day, they got their guy and it's like not the way that we planned on doing it, but it kind of worked out at the end. So I think it would be sharp for them to continue to look at the position. But I think obviously going into next year, Bryce Young is going to be the unequivocal starter in Noka in that lineup.

on that side of the ball. Matt Lafleur coaching them up scored over thirty points in five straight games, averaging three hundred and fifty seven yards of total offense in that span as well, and the Vikings have allowed just one more rushing yard than the Ravens for the fewest amount this season. So I do not think Josh Jacobs

will be very effective in this game. If you want to take some unders on his rushing props, I wouldn't mind that either, But I think this will force the Pack to throw the ball a little more around the yard. Jordan Love's gonna have a big game. They're gonna have to save some clock. Meanwhile, the Vikings, they've also averaged thirty and a half points over the past five games.

Sam Darnold is absolutely cooking right now. Average two in seventy eight yards two point six touchdowns per game in that five game span, I expect him to air it out here. And with the Packers also being a top six defense against the run, I think Aaron Jones is probably clogged up a little bit. So there are sixty points scored in this game between these two teams back in week number five. So give me the over in

Minnesota in a controlled environment in the Dome. I'm going to you know, it's always sketchy with the divisional game that they've seen each other a couple times already, once this season and multiple times last season, but I'm sticking with it. Forty and a half seems low, So give me the over.

But I think this thing to point out to it, and the first time that these teams played, it was a very weird game. I believe that the Vikings jumped out to like a massive lead, yes, and then Jordan Love just started just like hucking it in the second half, and they eventually kind of crawled their way back into the game. Now, it seemed like the Vikings were always gonna win in the end, but Green Bay obviously came back.

But I also believe that game was Love was kind of still banged up right the beginning of the season, so he's dealing with that groin injury, that that knee injuries, so he should be he's one hundred percent healthy now. I mean he's coming off basically essentially a bye week against the New Orleans against the New Orleans Saints. So I think you're getting both teams at at full capacity. You got Hawkinson, he wasn't in the first matchup, right,

So yeah, I think you're gonna see points here. And this is a matchup I love for fantasy too, because we know the Vikings like they drive volume out of their opponents, and like that's the biggest issue with these packers, Like, oh, no one gets enough targets. Well, targets are coming in week seventeen. I don't know where they're.

They played the Giants, yep, they play. They played the JV team of the New York Giants, and Penix, I mean what, you didn't even have to do that much. They had two pick sixes, right, So yes, he looked good, but you have to keep in mind the opponent that they were playing. Something. A trend that I've looked at a lot this year has been rookie quarterbacks as favorites. They performed really well against the spread this year, so

Michael Penix was a favorite. I was back in him last week because they used to be like, hey, this guy should cover. And now I'm following that same trend, except on the other side of this matchup, because I'm looking at Jaden Daniels as the rookie quarterback who's favored in this matchup. So for me, it goes back to I don't think four points here is enough. The Commanders are playing at home, they are riding high after this

massive win over the Philadelphia Eagles Atlanta. Yeah, they beat the Giants great, but this team still has a lot of issues that will go beyond the quarterback position. I still don't think their defense is very good, even though they've they've played well against some sub are composition shooting up. They played the Giants, They played the Giants and the Raiders. Oh yeah, Desmond Rider drew Lock. Like, great job, guys. Now you're gonna play the future offensive rookie of the

year in terms of Jade and Daniels. So the Commanders all year have been this team that have struggled to beat like the best teams, which was why last week again obviously maybe a little asterisk because Jalen Hurts didn't play the game, but they still end up winning that

game against the Eagles. And yes, the Falcons have a winning record, but you know who has winning record the Texans, Right, Just like one of these like kind of like fraudulent teams where it's like, yeah, like they're supposed to be good, but the record says they're good, but are they really good? Are the Falcons good? Seth? I mean, if you ask Trel Furman, again he's on the show either, But Treyll

Furman would be very proud. This has to be about his picks to fade the Falcons into oblivion, which is he always he usually does on a week to week basis. So I know that Treill's gonna like this pick. So I'm gonna go with the Commanders laying four at home against the Dirty Birds and Michael Pennix. I just think that they're probably getting too much love for Penix's performance last week when I think it was more about the New York Giants than the Falcons being this. Oh, this

team's ready to run away with the NFC South. I don't think that's going to be the case.

see Brian Robinson Junior get back to full hell. I think he's still a little banged up, and hopefully Austin Eckler can return at some point. But yeah, I think it's a good spot for the Commanders. On Sunday Night Football, I'll round us out my final pick and win it. Dout Fae the Giants, who are four and eleven ats this season, two and seven ats at home. They just lost the foul Andrew told us thirty four to seven and Pennix's first start, Malik Neighbors, Tyrone Tracy estimated dnps

on Wednesday. I think Neighbors is tracking towards playing, but tracy status seems very much in the air. Drew Locke also limited with a shoulder, but I'm kind of hoping he plays because he has four interceptions one touchdowns this season.

Anthony Richardson for the Colt something to monitor. He was listed as an estimated DNP on Wednesday, But I don't really think this matters for betting this game because Joe Flacco and him are very you know, one A, one B. I think in this type of situation, Colts are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, coming off a vintage Jonathan Taylor game where he had two hundred and eighteen yards three touchdowns a week after I was eliminated for my fantasy playoffs in my big money league. So

appreciate that JT. But now they get a Giants defense. It's allowed the second most rushing yards this season, four point eight yards per carry. Clip giddy up. I'm betting all the JT overs I can. I'm laddering him, and I expect JT to carry people to fantasy championships and the Colts cash and tickets. I would wait on this one, though, because I think maybe if Richardson gets rolled out or he's questionable coming into Sunday, maybe you can get rab of six and a half so you can finish this

one off if they win by a touchdown. So I'm waiting on this, but I do like the Colts at seven and a half, hoping this line moves a little bit towards Sunday.

So yeah, yeah, the Colts here, I think that. I mean, even if Richardson suits up, you know, the Giants two of the things that they're worst at are against the run. We know that the Colts can run the ball effectively with Richardson, with Jonathan Taylor, and they're the number one worst defense against the deep ball. Look, Richardson might complete five passes, but he might get over one hundred and

fifty yards with those. His passing yards projection, I don't know what it is now, but I think it opened at like one hundred and sixty yards.

Total odds of plus two sixty nine at fandle Fran Brown has done an exceptional job with the Syracuse team, and they are all up for the Holiday Bowl. Most of their starters will be playing, including quarterback Kyle McCord, who was first in the nation and passing attempts, third in total yards, fifth and passing touchdowns. Wazoo, they had quarterback John Tier who's their entire offense he's in the portal.

They're leading rusher way Shaun Parker, and the Porter their second leading wide receiver Chris Hudson, and the Portal their right tackle. Four defensive starters opting out of this game. So Washington State they have nothing returning, no consistency. They also have their head coach and most of their staff is gonna be gone for this one as well. So go ahead, give me Syracuse my sixteen and a half. I'm parlaying that with the Dolphins Browns under this gives

us combined odds plus two sixty nine. Nice at fandles. So I'm gonna go ahead and round us out there with the college football NFL parlay Andrew. I don't know if I broke the rules of the show, but I'm doing it anyways.

That's going to do it for us today on the BP NFL show. Make sure you like this video. If you enjoyed it, subscribe to the Bening Pros YouTube channel and the podcast feed. Please download the bank Pros app and sync your sportsbooks today. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Seth Wilcock. Thanks for watching. Take care of y'all.