Best NFL Bets for Week 14 | Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 612)

It's gonna be either dangerously good or dangerously bad. I believe more towards the good. The guys have been hot lately, and of course so's the betting pros app If you haven't already, make sure you download that bad Boy, make sure you use the three free days of premium you can get, and make sure you sink your sportsbooks for free. Did you hear me for free? So you can get the best lines wherever you're placing your bets at all times, and use the tools to make you smarter. All right,

let's kick things off. I want to get right into it, gentlemen. I want to start here with the Miami Dolphins, a team that Terrell, they do not play well in the cold weather. To a tongue of Bilo, it does not end. Mike mcdanie does not like to play against teams that are any good teams that have under five hundred records, Bueno teams over five hundred. Mike McDaniel is, let's say

struggle boss. Let's just put it that way. So let's talk about this, and let's talk about the six points here that Miami is on here minus six at home against the New York Jets this week. So Terrell Furman, you're in on this. Let's talk about the why.

hang around. They're not being serious on offense, they're not capitalizing on all of these drives opportunities, and here comes the mistake, and here comes the pick six, and there goes Leonard Williams running all the way down the sideline. This team is horrible. This team is absolutely horrible. Aaron Rodgers somehow has manufactured a worst win loss record as a New York Jet than Jack Wilson, and I think

that that actually should be commended. I think that Jets fans should actually thank Aaron Rodgers for tanking this organization all the way down to the point where they're going to have some pretty good draft capital next year. And Aaron Rodgers reportedly doesn't want to come back to the Jets next season.

is they're not a great team. They're a team that can beat up on the lesser, a team that can't compete when all said and done, and a team that's not going to travel and play in tough environments, period, end of story. Now that I've had that moment where I've I've been awoken to all of that, I think now I am ready to love this six with you guys, and I know you are too. So what are you more excited about the Aaron Rodgers Netflix documentary coming out soon or this minus six on the Dolphins? Well?

in Miami. And the stats back this up. If you look at the Dolphins, they've covered the spread thirteen to the last sixteen games against teams with a losing record. So I was watching one of the two press conferences this week, and he's really disappointed about what their record is this season, and he's really taking on himself for missing so many games that really put the Dolphins behind

the eight ball. Right if he doesn't miss over a month of the season, we maybe talking about the Dolphins like, hey, this team could make some noise potentially, well, maybe make the playoffs and then immediately get eliminated like like we often see with them. But hey, at least be in the playoff race. So I still think they're motivated to win games. I think two as still wants to play well for his teammates, and I think they blow out the Jets. So give me the Dolphins, minusex.

fun yesterday. I want to shout out to everybody was watching Live with Us yesterday again three Eastern every Wednesday. Set your calendars or just ring the belt that it goes dang for notifications. When you subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, that's a lot easier. I have come to this moment also, where you know, Andrew and I were talking about it, and I had thrown it out earlier on Monday, and then I sat in it a little bit longer. And the Falcons are not a great

football team. Kirk Cousins is absolutely though, going to I think take this moment seriously. Perhaps maybe that was a little bit of the distraction last week he tolayed terribly off the bye too, throwing all those picks. It was not a good look for him. But every time we write off Kirk Cousins is when Kirk Cousins shows up again. Andrew used the Eagles game earlier this year as a perfect example of that. I don't think the Falcons are a good team. I know, Terrell, you don't. I'm surprised

that you're on the Falcons points here. So the fact that you are also in this with Ericson and myself, you are the toughest one to Convince, So talk to me about how you came to this point, because you have been the biggest critic of this team from day one. Yeah.

the Cardinals, and that's really really annoying. But nonetheless, this Vikings team has just been playing really, really close games and they were fortunate to get the cover, laying six against Tennessee, but they still didn't cover against the Jags the week before. They're playing a lot of close games and just going out by the skin of their teeth and getting a win. Granted for the NFL and for the playoffs, that's enough. They're going to be a playoff team.

I was wrong about that. I thought they were about to fall off a cliff, but I still don't think that's enough for them to cover this margin five and a half here. I could see this being a close game. I mean, even through all four of those interceptions, they still found some way to make that a four point game against the Chargers, and I think that actually does

mean something. I don't think this Vikings team is equipped now with Sam Darnold at quarterback, with the inconsistencies on offense, and with the fact that yes they can turn the ball over, but they allow you to go twenty to twenty and at least get some points at the end the drives. I think that that's really really concerning for Minnesota. I love the bounce back angle and the revenge angle

for Kirk Cousins in this game as well. Kirk Cousins when he's doubted and lot did very very nerve wrecking. Not as confident in a money line play this week, I will admit it. Not as confident in the money line play, but I feel really, really good about five and a half, Like, I don't think that this is going to be more than a touchdown game. I think this is a close one.

I were talking about yesterday. Whereas you have the ball in your hand, you're able to control the game, right, Jerry Judy, how does revenge narrative which again we'll be talking about.

come up with a weird upset. It feels like the Vikings, as Roll was saying, also no over eight team maybe right for that last two weeks too, having a lot of trouble converting the too many field goals. You know that's there with the Vikings side. So Andrew, I know, Toarrell give us a lot of reasons. But for those people may have missed yesterday, what were some of your other reasons where we were talking about why Cousins and the Falcons could cover this five and a half.

luckiest team in the NFL. You know, he's right there next to them, the Minnesota Vikings seven and one in close games this season, So yeah, of course they're going to keep this game close to the Falcons because that's all the Vikings do is playing close games. And you look at their defense, right, Oh, this very fear defense. They love to blitz a lot. Hey, you know defense also loves the blitz a lot. Todd Bowles. You know what team the Kirk Cousins had the most success against

this year, Tampa Bay, and they're blitz heavy defense. Because I remember writing up the first time those those teams played and be like, man, I'm now Kirk Cousins can't really move sitting duck back there and all you did was rip apart the blitz.

of their linebackers. He missed last week, and the Arizona Cardinals ran all over the Minnesota Vikings the Minnesota Vikings game for the most rushing yards they had given up at any point in the season against Arizona because they were missing one of their star linebackers. You know who got hurt last week, Stefan Gilmore, one of their starting quarterbacks. In a minute that he left that game. You know

who scores a touchdown, Marvin Harrison Junior. Again, the Cardinals can't score a touchdown in the entire game, he gets hurt, they immediately score a touchdown. So it's not even less about Kirk Cousins. But like, how are they gonna stop John Robinson?

they held the charge, surprising I'm under exactly. So there's just the narrative is so much about Kirk Cousins and not all the other factors of the game that I think work in the Falcons favors. So I'm glad we're all handholding here.

gets harder, betting starts to get a little bit easier. Also, to help you easier pain and make some good picks, our discord Betting pros dot com slash chat. It's free to join. You can get picks there, you can get interactions there with Matt parral toos out there all the time on there. So if you want some help from expert handicappers like Matt, or you want to connect with fellow betters and elevate your strategy again, the place to do it is over at bettingpros dot com slash chat.

Join our discord and don't forget too make your picks count. Bettingpros dot com slash NFL Contest that's the place you can go when you have the app, just go into the community tab and look for the NFL contest and you don't even have to make best you just have to make picks. And we got a new month of December that just begins, so we're doing monthly prizes and weekly prizes. You just have to make the quick pick boom,

You're done. That's all you have to do. And if you make the best for the week or the month, you're gonna get a prize. So make sure you join our NFL contest going on right now, still through the month of December through January two, all the time we got it going on, Tourette. Let's get to the Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The number for this one is forty three. The Chiefs obviously continue to be a team that you sneaks out victories here and there. Everybody

has been on them. I'm sure they've heard all this, but they just keep winning football games regardless. And the Chargers. Lad mccauckey banged up. That's a big one. JK. Dobbins on the IR that's a big one. This was poised to be a really interesting game where I feel like the Chargers were ready to really take it to the Chiefs and really hand them another loss. Now I'm not so sure, and I don't know if you are or not, but you seem to have pivoted to the number instead

forty three, and you're taking the under. So let's talk about that one and talk about the why and is it because so many of these pieces that are missing here potentially for the Chargers. Well, yeah, I've kind of strayed. I still like the Chargers plus four, by the way, I just think that this is a good spot, and I like the coach and Jim Harbaugh. I think he's going to be able to coach this team up. And

the defense has been fantastic all year round. Like they've had a couple of stumbles there with the Ravens and with the Bengals, but they've been.

they haven't changed philosophy throughout the whole season. We want to play good defense, we want to get after the quarterback. We want that to be the highlight of this team. And then Patrick Mahomes is that quarterback where we don't need him to go out here and throw for four hundred and five hundred yards. We just need him to make the plays when we need him to make them

for us to be able to win the game. And I think this Chargers team, who thinks that they are comparable to the Kansas City Chiefs, they're trying to close that gap. Justin Herbert has been closest to anybody else besides maybe a Josh Allen or a Joe Burrow to

actually beating the Kansas City Chiefs. So I think that with all of that, this is going to be a very very competitive game, a low scoring game similar to what we saw against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Raiders in this division on the day after Thanksgaving Black Friday. So I'm gonna take the under here. I think this is a hard smash mount football game in the COREA and I love under forty three and a half. This could be very very low scoring.

something wrong with that in my opinion. Playing outside in December, a dome team on the road, I just want to under this game. So under forty and a half points Giants and Saints. Look, MetLife Stadium. We actually mentioned this on the Fantasy Pro Show. So whereas Ford Field, of course field, the NFL love that MetLife Stadium. The total opposite. I brought up as the I don't know what ballpark has the least amount of home runs. The first one that came to mind was Polo Grounds. There are no

home runs at this certain place. There are no home runs in MetLife Stadium. Even that Jetsyhawks game, all right, not so much. It took everything with special teams and turnovers, and picks by three hundred pound lineman to get.

when you look at the two defenses. Again, what can they rest their laurels on top? Twelve red zone defense? So even if they're moving the ball with yardage, you're not gonna see any points here unless it gets.

Seahawks just keep winning games. And sometimes certain teams just have that vibe where maybe they shouldn't win the game, And certainly last week, maybe there were times against the Jest where they shouldn't. Maybe even against the Cardinals two weeks ago, they shouldn't, especially when they were at home. They should have handle their business, and they let the Cardinals hang around. I feel like Seattle's just got that thing about them right now. I think Geno's confident, this

coaching staff is confident. They're feeling good vibes. I think Arizona's feeling some pressure. And you could see it. They lost the Seattle coming out of the by then they went out and laid a turn against the Minnesota Vikings. I think you could feel the pressure of a team that wasn't ready to be at the top yet of a division starting to collapse upon itself. And that's the Arizona Cardinals. I don't care about how good the defense plays. I don't care about it. Seattle's finding ways to win,

and I think Seatle's going to do it again. Terrell, you disagree, tell me why? Yeah?

I expect to see a lot of heavy James Connor and Kyler Murray making plays with his legs, Like I think that's gonna be the key here, him being able to get outside of the pocket, make plays with his legs, not necessarily get the rushing yards, but just extend plays. Because Trey McBride is a stud, he's absolutely balling. I think that this can be a Marvin Harrison maybe longest completion game, maybe not yards game, but longest completion where he gets the big plays and they're able to move

the ball. They out gained them last time. They just weren't able to put the ball in an end zone and it was so frustrating and you pulled your hair out as a Cardinals money linebacker, it doesn't matter. I'm going back to the well. I think that we were on the right side and we just didn't get the result. They split the series this time around, and we watch a competitive, competitive division come down to again the Cardinals and the Seahawks. Towards the end of the year. I

am taking the Cardinals. I think that this is the year. This is the year they finally get the monkey off their back and they win the division. And it starts with this game right here.

feel the entire game just shift in their favor. All the energy goes in their favor, and teams that can do that consistently start to believe they can and that's very dangerous for a team like Arizona. But why do you think Arizona's going to come out here on the minus side? Here? With the was it two and a half right now? Pretty much you're getting everywhere? Yeah?

it's just gonna happen again or is that not sustainable? Right? Well, if they're going to continue to move the ball, eventually they're going to be able to punch in. Eventually, Trade McBride will catch a receiving touchdown. I can tell, but I know I keep telling something too. Eventually it's going to happen. I mean, the guy can only catch twelve balls every single week and not score for so long before he finally finds the end zone, and I guess

for me it's you're looking at the two teams. Both of the defenses, like Terrell laid out like, are definitely the strengths right now entering this game. We saw it in the first matchup, where neither offense score twenty points, neither offense got over a three hundred total yards of offense. The Seahawks will to stop the Cardinals ground game, but the Seahawks also can't run the football, and I think goes back to I like the homefield of and for Arizona. I think that gives it a little of an edge

in terms of creating opportunities for turnovers. Last week, you saw the Cardinals pass rush come alive against they overrated Vikings offensive line. The worst unit on the field I think playing in this game is the Seahawks offensive line. I have no faith them playing on the road to stop a pass rush that came alive last week. So where you're on the side of I think the turnovers

are gonna benefit the Seahawks. I think the turnovers is gonna be a bit the Cardinals in this game and ultimately the reason why the Cardinals come out with the win. So I think that this game is tight, and I think it's going to go down in the fourth quarter, So I think we need to get a little side action on between us three. I think I'll be a fun one to watch, So I'm gonna go with the Cardinals.

I the body of work this year says, Hey, Cardinals have covered the spread at a higher rate than the Seattle Seahawks, so their favorites at home, give me the Birds.

their ability to hold the lead at all. So tell me why you're confident the Bengals at the five and a half this week, because this is another one too where maybe I'm a little bit more edged in the forty nine and a half than I am in the five and a half.

six against the spread. That is horrible fifty percent. You're not making money there unless you bet them on the road because they're five and one ats on the road. They can't win in Cincinnati, but they can handle business on the road. They are coming off of a divisional game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They've had a bad run of three games. I get it, but look at the three games they played Pittsburgh playoff team, Chargers playoff team,

Ravens playoff team, Cowboys not a playoff team. I mean, I know Jerry Jones to believe they have a chance. I'll tell you right now, they don't have a chance in hell. And so I think that this is a great opportunity for Cincinnati to one invigorate just the fan base,

invigorate the fan base. Second, Zach Taylor's coaching for his job, because if you somehow go out here, don't have an amazing showing against this Cowboys team that's in a down year, that the last time you played them was two years ago when you had all the expectations in the world and you went and lost to Cooper Rush on the road. In doubt Jerry's world, you lost to Cooper Rush. That you get to pay Cooper Rush back for that when

they're in a down year. Yeah, I think that they possibly could give up points, but I could see Cincinnati scoring forty four points in this game. That's how good their offense is, and that's how bad the defense is for Dallas. So I think Cincinnati is gonna be able

to cover this line regardless. I laid five and a half last week with the Broncos, and while it was a sweat and it was entertaining, and I promise you Cooper Rush is never gonna give me as entertaining of a game as Jameis Winston gave me, and I still get a cover. I'm still gonna get the cover here. Give me the Cincinnati Bengals. I think they're going to destroy the Cowboys. I think somehow in their mind when you look at them, especially watching hard knots, they believe

they somehow still have a chance at the playoffs. And so sure, I'm gonna bet on them having that false sense of security that they can go be one and zero every week and find themselves in the playoffs. Give me Cincinnati laying five and a half.

those two teams are at. And let's be honest too, you know what I know this time of year, of the defenses decided that you know, they're not gonna really lay themselves out too much. They got nothing to play for. Those guys don't want to get hurt. Tackling seems to go away in games like this last one here I want to talk about you know, Ericson. We've discussed Baker Mayfield before, right where he is the underdog. We love him. Sometimes when he's the home favorite, it's not so good.

He's got the Raiders this week. So that being said, how do you feel about this matchup for him and the Raiders with Tampa who who look, Tampa is right in the thick of this division too. They have a chance your important victory for them, But you think the Raiders can cover, So let's talk about that.

to show what he can do. And I mean Stan Bay Buccaneers defense is horrible, especially in their secondary and you laid out the case where Baker Mayfield. Yes, when he's up against the wall an underdog, he's playing like his arm is in a sling on the road, Like that's where you want to be on Baker Mayfield. Not when they're comfy six and a half point favorites against a two to ten Raiders team with Baker Mayfield like dealing with an injury. The Buccaneers as home favorites five

nine and one against a spread thirty six percent. That's what that's what we're working with here. The Raiders play hard for Antonio peers. They do because this is a team that's covered spreads on the road that they had no business covering. What's over against teams that are significantly more talented them and significantly better than them. So rinse and repeat. Last week, we like the Raiders on the road on Black Friday, and they covered. They get us

thirteen and a half points. This is only six and a half, But the matchup is better, I think because the Buccaneers defense is way worse than the Chiefs, and it's the same exact recipe for success for Aidan O'Connell, get the ball, brock powers. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams against tight ends and get the ball to Jacobe Myers like he has weapons to get and do damage against this defense. So I like the Raiders catching plus six and a half again on the road.

I don't really care. The Raiders are covering plenty of road games, so I'm gonna fade Baker Mayfield as a home favorite.

have not gone well there. Caleb Williams, though he has played really well the last couple weeks in the second half of games, he's made some good adjustments. This is a team that is not bereft of talent. It's bereft of leadership. It's bereft of game planning. It's bereft of coaches making good clock management decisions. And good moments. So give me the Chicago Bears here to put the nail in the coffin of the forty nine ers season. Here the forty nine Ers not healthy, CMC done, Mason Dunn,

Purty is far from one hundred percent. I'm telling you right now. This is one where I think that the Chicago Bears do get that glorious dead coach bounce. And I want to be in on it, and I want you to be in on it too, Plus one seventy six on the money line, let's go, And let's take those Chicago Bears on the money line plus one seventy six, and only got one other thing I want to pull with it. It's my Seattle Seahawks. That's right, my Seattle Seahawks.

At plus one twenty. You put them both together, you get five to one. Let's go, baby, We're going forward with this one. The Chicago Bears have talent on offense and defense, and I think there's a motivation to prove to everybody that they are a better football team than they are. And I already talked about Seattle Seahawks. These guys just have that little bit of magic and sometimes that's just better than any stat you could throw out there.

And I do not buy in to Kyler Murray in big spots because I keep seeing him make bad decisions and bad moments. And that, once again is how the Seattle Seahawks are going to find another interception at another moment in this game to swing the momentum in their favor, and Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks are going to win this division. So really, this is just a flag plant of the NFC West where it's Seattle Seahawks' time, the death of the forty nine ers, the rebirth of

the Seattle Seahawks. What a time to be alive, gentlemen. I can't wait to come back next week and talk about how everything went with you. And of course don't forget join our discord Bettingpros dot com slash chat, download the app wherever you get your app, start betting smarter or not harder. Use the Betting Pros apps think your sportsbooks for free and join our NFL contest on there as well. You can also follow us trell ericson myself over on VP to see what we're in on when

you download the app, so do that too. It's just good business. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for Terrell Furman and Andrew ericson I'm Joey Pine. Well see you next time, kids, Happy Week fourteen.