Best Bets for NFL Week 1 | Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 507)

just a barnburger of an episode. Don't forget everybody. If you haven't already subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, also subscribe to the podcast wherever you get your pods and download the Betting Pros app. Start betting smarter, not harder. It's on iOS, it's on Android, it's everywhere. You can sink your sports most for free. It'll track your bets across all the sports books, give you the best lines so you can be the best better you could possibly be. Again.

You can also get a free trial of Betting Pros Premium right now by downloading the app and activating your trial on the upgrade screen. So download the app and get winning some money. Gentlemen, It's always an exciting day. Week one is kicking off tonight officially, and you know, crazy things always happened in Week one, Terrell, I always feel like with the new changes to the preseason that Week one and two you don't want to overreact too much.

A lot of teams are basically still in preseason mode. Do you approach this week kind of in the same mentality.

bad one year and gonna be good next year. I mean, who's gonna be the random fantasy irrelevant player that's been for the past three years and think he's gonna be Fantasy relevant this year and everybody's gonna love him like, it's so fun to see how everybody grows in the NFL. So I tried to tackle week one a little bit different than the rest of the weeks of the season.

That's not reality. So I'm looking forward to taking advantage of some of those things when we talk about these games week two, week three. But I'm excited, pumped for Week one.

Jay Daniels making his first start. You've got some feelings about this game, Drell lay him on us, all right.

are bad. All of the corners are bad, so it doesn't matter. I think that Mike Evans is gonna have a feast of a day. I think Chris Godwin is gonna have a great day. Shoot, we might even see Jaylen McMillan make some noise on the other side. And so Jalen Antoine Whitfield, junior Jordan Whitehead very very good safeties in nets defense for the Bucks. I think they're

gonna be lights out all over the field. I just am fading this offensive line for the Washington Commanders saying that I don't think that they're going to be able to keep Jalen Daniels up right. I don't think that a rookie quarterback playing against this veteran defense is going to go out there and light the world on fire. And I think Baker is going to be smooth, steady, do enough with what's given to him. And that's not a lot, because again, this Washington secondary really bad.

nine ers on the run up in that game. So for me, I'm looking at how well the Packers played last year, especially as under dogs, looking what they did so sixty percent against the spread as an underdog in twenty twenty three, there were six and six overall, so

they were winning games straight up as underdogs. So I don't see this Eagles team with a new officer coordinator coming in, new defensive coordinator coming in, Nick Sirianni calling the shots as the CEO head coach, that we're going to see it just turn on a dime from last year's collapse when they lost six of their last seven games. They were losing games that they had no business even being close. So I'm gonna take the Packers make Friday Night a memorable one. Packers on the money line.

you'd like to approach this. The Bengals are historically team to kind of get out of the gate a little slow. You got the Jamar Chase thing going. We don't know how much he's gonna play in this game. I expect him to play in this game. I think we all do. I don't know if it's gonna be a full compliment of snaps, but let's talk about this one here. Let's talk about the Patriots and the Bengals. How do you see this one working out.

generate their own pass rush against the Patriots. I don't think that they're gonna be able to really. I think it's fifty to fifty, honestly, on both lines, on both sides of the ball. I think both offensive lines give me a question. Both defensive lines, I think, give me question. And then everybody's like, oh, well, look at the white receivers for the Bengals and hold on, wait a minute.

The Patriots still have Jonathan Jones and Christian Gonzalez, who people forget after he got hurt in Week four last year, would have torn labor. Before that, he was really really good. He was shadowing. He was shadowing, and Alvin ross Saint Brown. I think he shadowed Garrett Wilson during that span too, like he was taking on the number one receiver, and so now him and Jonathan Jones on the outside. I think it's gonna be really, really good. Jacoby Brissette also

another name people are not respecting. In fact, if you put this line on jok Kobe Brissette's games his last season starting in twenty twenty two, he would have been eight to and one to this number. So eight too and one at has two this number. He was keeping his team in close games when he was playing for the Cleveland Browns. Look at last season when he played for the Commanders, and he's came in that game and relief in the Jets. He brought them back with three

straight touchdowns. Like Jacoby Brissette. I'm not saying he's a great quarterback. No, I'm not saying that, but he's serviceable. I think that a good defense. This Bengals team had all this stuff going on in the off season, we still have questions offensive line. The pass is going to keep this closed. Eight points I've say nine as some places. No, No, I think this is more of a four or five point game.

ready to play. I'm concerned about Russell Wilson, his ability to avoid zex, his ability to not turn the football over in this game too, because I think that pass rush is going to be ferocious on him. What are your feelings on Atlanta and Pittsburgh. I'm on the Atlanta side here, but you seem to be on the opposite end.

come out rusty. We haven't seen Kirk Cousins play since Week eight of last year. He's coming off the torn achilles, so I think they're gonna be a slow start out of the gates. Yes, the Steelers offense has not in the preseason, but at least they're playing in the preseason at least they're trying to get their starters ready to go. For this Falcons defense that I'm not super concerned about. Now, it's not really about the offenses, particularly on the Pittsburgh side.

It's about how good their defense is. They still have TJ.

these certain types of players. So I just think, especially with the Falcons being the all hype preseason team, they're buying their way to a championship quote unquote, and the Steelers are going to come in and upset it just like they always do in a really weird way. They're going to run the football, they're going to keep it low scoring, and it's just going to cause frustrations for

the Atlanta Falcons. So just given how well the Steelers have been, like last year they were five and four against the spread and the money line on the road. So this team, again I'm not willing to call the upset, but at three and a half, they can keep this within a field goal.

wagers in that sense. You sync all your picks over on the VP app and you go join our NFL podcast group and we're giving away some prizes there monthly and for the big end of year prize as well. Over at Bettingpros dot Com slash NFL Contests, or if you're on the app, just go to the community page and you can find on that community to have the sports betting group there for NFL podcasts, and of course

you can follow all of us. I just logged all of my picks for this week, and I've also logged all of my picks for some of the futures market two over at Bettingpros dot Com slash Joe. You could follow Terrell, same thing Bettingpros dot Com slash Terrell, and of course Ericson as well at Bettingpros dot Com slash Ericson. I tried to get him to say the Undertaker. They wouldn't give me that slash. Whatever, It's fine, all right, Let's go to another pick here, this one, this one

I like. I like this one a lot terrell. In fact, I think.

So let's talk about it. Because you don't even like them necessarily on the points, but you're even maybe looking for them to possibly win outright, Yes.

them in games. They bring in Lugerius Sneid, who was a really, really good corner for Kansas City, comes over and he's probably gonna shadow the best matchup for majority of the season for them, including in this game with DJ Moore. Dj Moore he faced them last year for the Kansas City Chiefs. DJ Moore was one for four three yards in that game. You look at Roger McCreary, another name on the defense, people don't know. He was

really good in the slot. Jeffrey Simmons arden Key Like, I think the defense is going to be able to throw something at Caleb Williams and it's gonna be unlike he's seen before, especially in college. And we've seen Caylen Williams in college face a tough defense and kind of be rattled a little bit. Plus, I'm all over the will Levis train, I mean all the way, all the way easy, and it.

I think they'll be able to get the wins. And do you remember the four touchdown game in his first game like that, that was the peak he showed us, Hey we can have four touchdowns on hold on, No, No, it's a whole different coaching staff. It's a whole different coaching staff.

a he's Jamis. He is literally Jameis. We had so much fun with Jamis and now we're gonna have fun with will Levis. Will Levis is getting this done. This is a really good defense. I think the offense is going to be way better this year. Plus four and a half sprinkle on the money line. This Titans team is gonna be good.

I'm just saying, don't take away people as wah wah. They get very upset. I know I do, all right, Andrew Erickson, don't take away by wahwag Ins said, give me another pick too, because you've got some feelings on this game as well. So let's talk about Bears and Titans from your perspective.

best run defense in the NFL. Seven of the bears last ten games went under the total, four to one and one towards the under in their last six games. They're playing at home Soldier field, hostile environment for a inexperienced second year quarterback in a new offense, playing behind a shaky offensive line. So I'm fading both quarterbacks in this game, and I want to take the under all the way because it's forty five points for a guy making his first start in a guy making I think

his fifth start on the road. You look at Lil Lewis at what he did on the road last year. The Titans lost by fourteen plus points twice and they went one and three against the spread. So I have no confidence that will Levis on the road and to the Jamis Winston comparison. The only thing that I don't see is Callahan's offense last year extremely low average depth

of target. They weren't launching the ball downfield. So I think we're going to see a little bit more of a conservative approach with Will Lewis in this particular matchup to kind of save him from himself, and short dump off passes to tas Jay Spears and Tony Pollard. You look at the Bears defense last year.

here with the Cardinals. A tough start for the year for them, having to go on the road into Buffalo, but it's September in Buffalo, so let's not overrat it too much. It's not like it's December, it's snowing, or any of that nonsense. Right now, you can get six and a half here on the Arizona Cardinals, and it looks like Terrell, you're taking.

was Josh Allen doing before Diggs? I mean, he was about back you know this, Oh he's got all this potential after Diggs gets there, And then before Diggs was there, he was kind of average and just hey, he's nice and he'll be on the way and he's on the rise, but he's not there yet. I just I questioned the turnovers, decision making in the zone, and I think here, the Cardinals have a really really good offense. Their offensive coordinator is actually getting looks for what he did last season

for next season to be a head coach. That's how good of an offense they did. They were looking good. They got to win on the road against the Eagles late last year, and that was a really really big win for them. You look at Josh Allen when he's closed as a favorite of four or more, he's eight sixteen and one ats Kyler as a dog, eleven five and two as a dog of four points some more. Excuse me, he's eleven five and two ATS. I don't think the Bills have an answer for Trey McBride at all.

I would take all the Trey McBride props that I can. I think Trayvon Bride's gonna have a huge game. I think Kyler's gonna be able to extend with his legs against that Bill's front seven and be able to create for his teammates, for a Marvin Harrison junior or Wilson something like that, because that's a very very good Bills secondary. But I think Kyler's legs can make them create and extend plays and be able to get his targets open.

And then I'm just gonna batch you'all think Annon and that defense, and I think he's gonna find a way to make them somewhat comparable. Like they were horrible. It was so bad last year. That was the bottom. That was the bottom. Even if they're slightly better this year, I think they have a chance. Six and a half is just weighed too many points, and I'm just knock going to back.

wanted to run the football. What happened when Joe Brady took over, as you off it, the coordinated for the Buffalo Bills. They established the run, they got bridged to Von Diggs. They have a bunch of young receivers with Josh Allen. To me, it doesn't make any sense for the Bills game plan to be, Okay, we're going to go and air it out with all these brand new receivers when we know the Cardinals' weakest part of their defense is against the makes no sense to me why

this total is at forty eight and a half. It's because, oh, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray two quarterbacks that are fun forty eight and a half. That's where the total is coming from. So I think that this is a great value betting the under here. You look at what the Bills were with the under over last year. Games in Buffalo only

average forty six and a half points. It was five and five towards the over under, and the Cardinals they were a team where every game at home was essentially going over seven and two towards the over at home, but on the roads two and six. So the Cardinals team is again another offense that plays much better at home in a dome. Again, this isn't Buffalo crazy weather, but it's still outdoors, so it's still a little bit

different for Arizona and their offense. So for me, I think the two teams wanting to run the football established to run, you're going to get a score that goes way under forty eight and a half. And again to Terrell's point, I still also lot because it's gonna be lower scoring. I think the Cardinals plus six and a half also makes a ton of sense.

For the forty nine ers, you had Brandon Aiyuk, who was a Steeler and then he was a Brown and then he was a Patriot, and then he was a commander, and then he was a Steeler again, and then he finally signed his deal with the forty nine ers. I think all of that goes into play, But really it's just the primetime unders. They've been like sixty percent over the past five years, closer to seventy five percent over

the past two years. Like they've been really, really good, and this is a really good spot for two teams that actually has some history. Aaron Rodgers revenge game type sort of with the forty quarter of No, he's from California, He's lost in the playoffs multiple times to this team.

ers last twelve games. They are so overrated. They's just an overrated team. So for me, layering all the offseason antics, when's you going to show up? When Williams is going to show up? Are these guys in shape? Ricky Piersoll. This is a big thing. This guy almost died. There's a lot of distractions with this forty nine Ers team, and for me, the Jets are all in and I

think it's upset alert. So that's why I'm going with the Jets plus four and a half against an overrated four nine Ers team at home.

the groove of the offense and all that stuff. And now you're trying trying to sell me somehow that the New York Jets of this game with Aaron Rodgers, who hasn't played a snap of football since what January of twenty twenty three, I want to say, is the last time? Okay, it is the fall now almost just about of twenty twenty four, he was already a quarterback in decline. This notion that, like, look, the Jets defense is really good. I'm gonna give the Jets. The defense Priesze Halls a

terrific talent, so is Garrett Wilson. I think the Jets are gonna be competitive for that division. However, I think all that noise, all that frustration, You're right. I'm the guy who's been all these shows fading the forty nine ers. I'm faithing in twenty twenty four. I'm not faded in this game. I'm just not gonna do it. The forty nine ers are going to take out all their aggression on the New York Jets. You're telling me that Aaron Rodgers wasn't played a single snap in the preseason. He's

gonna go three thousand miles on a plane. And let's not pretend like there's no drama going on with that organization, with the clown of an offensive coordinator. They've got with Robert sala as their head coach, and they're gonna go against Kyle Shanahan, who, by the way, is too fancy for his own good all of the time. Kyle Shanahan lost them that Super Bowl. Hand the ball to Christian McCaffrey five more times, and you got a ring on it, baby, And that's what Beyonce will be telling you. Let me

tell you something else. They've also got a situation here where you have got Christian McCaffrey actually gonna play this week. Okay, he's gonna actually be there. Brand A Yuk is going to play. So everybody right now is going to be on the field and playing. What it looks like the toll this season is gonna take on just the way it did for the Eagles last year. It took its toll on them. The schedule took its toll. Some of

the other stuff going around all took its toll. That is gonna happen e ventry to forty nine ers at some point. I ain't gonna happen this week. I'm sorry. I think it's a joke, and I think it's because the Jets are a New York public team and everyone's got their expectations high again and once again, when Jet fans expectations are high, how often does that work out? Well? So give me the forty nine ers. I'll even I'll

even push this one to the alternate spread. Give me five and a half, yo, give it, give it, Give me all the forty nine ers this week. Welsh'll be happy with me. So there you go. How about a little parlay of the week, gentlemen, let's pick this apart. I love the Las Vegas Raiders this week. They're also my upset special, so we might as well just do that first upset special on the money line. The Chargers have no home field advantage. Hardball's there, but we don't

know what this off talk about. We don't know what an offense is. Gus Edwards, JK. Dobbins. How healthy are they? How good are they? Justin Herbert come off a foot injury. Josh Palmer is onmore, Keenan Allen is one more, Mike Williams, theres Lad mcconkee. I like all those guys in theory,

but I gotta see it in practice. Give me the Raiders, give me that pass rush with Max Crosby, give me them running the football, playing defense, and I think they come out here with a w. I love them plus one forty eight on the money line, my upset special

of the week. And if you put that together with the Dallas Cowboys at plus two and a half on the road against the Shawn Watson and the Cleveland Browns, and of course the San Francisco forty nine ers the minus four and a half you get plus eight two ericson what do you think about those apples?

little bit in week one. What do you think?

point game either way. Honestly, truly, I think that the hardball thing is a thing. I think that he will get them to play better. That was the bottom last year, and I think they will play better than they did last year. But if they play better than they did last year, is that going to be so much better? I don't think so.

nobody seems to want. Ericson, do you have an upset special of the week or are you in with me on the Raiders again?

on select downs, then I think that you're good. I'm not saying that they're going out here and running the score up by thirty, but I think that very very good offensive line back by Jerome Ford and by Perre Strong is going to be really really good running the ball against this Dallas defense, and I think that Dallas has no run game. And I questioned Dak Prescott as a quarterback on the road outdoors.