Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. We are back and better than ever for the twenty twenty NFL season. Today, we are going to be talking about some AFC futures, next week, some NFC futures, and then boom, we are into week one with me. To break it all down is Matt Parral, host of the Betting Pros very own Daily Juice podcast
and pushing the Odds over at sports Map Radio. You can find them on Twitter at sports Talk Matt, Matt, What's up?
What's up?
This is our what officially? This is our first time doing a pod together since I've joined Betting Pros.
Right, so this is Are you excited, m break? Are you excited?
Because I'm excited. I'm excited. It's great. It's so fun. It's football, man, We're talking football. How about that?
Thank goodness. I'm not kidding. I need some football and I need it right now. Before we get into it, can you talk a little bit about the Deli Juice podcast, because I mean, I know that obviously, you know I let's do it every day and it's done for betting pros, but it's awesome. Tell everybody a little bit about it.
Sure, we do it every day. It's a fifteen minute podcast that drops. I'm on the West Coast, so I drop it at about eleven eleven thirty every night, so if you're on the East coast when you get up in the morning, it'll be there right there for you. And it's essentially a breakdown of games that I like each and every day, and we're making plays. Normally there's three to five plays in every podcast that we're making, and we bounce around. It's not geared towards one sport,
it's not geared towards one type of betting. It's kind of all over the place, so we have kind of the whole field to go run around in. We can do like first five unders in baseball, or we can do you know, hockey overs, or we can play individual periods. And it's just been really fun because August has been such an incredible run with so many sports to bet on that it's been great. I mean when we started in July, it was a little slim pickings with just like UFC and NASCAR and golf and now We've got
just everything. So it's been really fun. The response has been incredible. I can't believe how many different people are listening and writing your.
You're international man everything.
That's crazy, all right, so many international listeners and whatnot. So it's been the most rewarding thing I've done in my now six year career in sports gambling and with content creation. It's been the most rewarding thing I've done so far, getting it off the ground as quickly as it's just exploded in eight weeks. We just did our fiftieth episode and it's been it's been so fun. So
it's a huge compliment to you guys. You know, you've done a great job of publicizing it and making it so accessible to people who go to betting pros dot com.
So it's been super fun.
That's true. I do deserve all the credit. Yeah, you appreciate I appreciate you. It was your idea, it was my idea, You're right, but I was smart enough to have you hosted. And yeah, it is really great. And
again it touches on all sports UFC. You know, you've been ingrained in the sports betting universe for forever, for you know, most of your adult life, So you really, I mean, you know, I don't know anything about betting on the UFC, but it's great to listen to and I feel like, just whatever it is, I'm so much more informed generally, like regardless binding. So it's great, And I'm sure you'll be talking about NFL during the year, but we are going to be talking about the NFL
on this podcast. We'll get into a little bit more about what we're going to be doing during the season next week when we break down the NFC, but for now, we're going to do the AFC preview. Now, we did do an AFC preview, not me and Matt, but I did an AFC preview several months ago, well before the draft. Even so some things might have changed a little bit, including the actual numbers that we're going to be looking at.
So we'll go division by division here, we'll talk about what we like, what we don't like with regard to the over unders. Now, we're going to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. That is the aggregate of the odds that are available in the market. You can see the individual odds at the various sports books that make up the consensus odds, so you can shop around always, but those are the numbers that we're going to be doing. Those are over at bettingpros dot
com slash NFL hyphen Wins. You can find everything on that page. If you look on the left, you can find Team Futures, Player, props, et cetera. Now, like I said, you're going to be able to see a bunch of different books. For example, I'm in New Hampshire. The only book I can actually bet on is DraftKings, which you will see the odds there, but you're also going to see bet mgm odds. Those are one of the odds
that make up the consensus odds. And what you really should do is go to bettingpros dot com slash bet MGM. When you go there, you can sign up for a bet mgm account and they're have this great offer right now where they're going to match your first deposit for new sign ups up to five hundred dollars in free bets. That's free money. That's not how gambling it's supposed to work,
but that's exactly what it is with betmgm. Remember bettingpros dot Com slash bet mgm sign up for an account, get a first deposit match up to five hundred dollars. Visit betemgm dot com for the terms and conditions. Got to be twenty one years or older and physically located
in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly if you've got a gambling problem called one eight one hundred and five to two forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada, one in one hundred gambler in New Jersey and West Virginia, or one eight hundred and nine with it. Okay, Hey, let's go here. Start with the AFC East. This is our division. Okay. Matt is
a Patriots fan. I am a Jets fan. Matt despises the bills and thinks they are overrated completely if you have ever listened to him talk about anything, So Matt, let's talk about it. Consent to so odds over here. I'll just go one by one. Then you're gonna tell me which one of them, if any, the over under
you like, Patriots are over under nine and a half. Now, this is obviously moved up since when we first said it because the signing of Cam Newton chamesinks even with all the losses on defense nine and a half, it is juice to the over at minus one forty three even on the under. Bills are over under nine juice towards the over at minus one forty three plus one
eighteen on the under. Jets are at over under six and a half juice toward the under and minus one twenty five over at plus one ten, and the Dolphins are over under at six even for the under, plus one ten for the over. So Matt other than you've gotta certainly hate the Bills, right because no matter what the over under would be on the Bills, you'd be like under under, it would be like four and a half wins under. Don't like them, don't like them? What's your play here?
Look for me the Jets.
And I think the Jets that I know people might go, well, it's a low number. I think the Jets are going to be really bad, and I think they're okay with being really bad. And I think when you look at the defense and you look at the schedule, I see four wins on that schedule for the New York Jets, and so I'm not I mean, this is a big year for Sam Donald. They got a bunch of first round picks coming up in the next couple of years that they could use on a quarterback if they want to.
Donald needs to stop throwing interceptions, and I look, I think Adam Gase is a horrible coach. So I'm very much down on the New York Jets. I'm on the under for the Jets. That was a pick on the Daily Juice we gave out that. I think if you can find six and a half, I go under on the on the Jets.
Here.
I just think they're gonna be They'll be towards the bottom. They'll probably be a little bit better than the Dolphins, but not a whole lot better than the Dolphins.
Does it change your mind to the fact that they traded for Kaalin Blaje?
Oh totally yes. I look out wins huge, So.
I'm actually surprised this doesn't move from It might have been seven, I guess at one point, but I've seen it six and a half pretty much rout. I kind of liked them a little bit, but not anymore. But before sort of all everything that's happened lately, I kind of liked them. I mean, they were seven and nine last year and they were terrible. They weren't as good as a seven to nine team. They had no offensive line whatsoever. Last year they played three games without Darnold
at all. And this year, you know, they obviously rebuilt the offensive line, you know, when they drafted Beckton and Greg Van Rotten and McGovern and George Fant. Chris Herndon is a player I really like at tight end. I like Jameson Crowder. They lost Robby Anderson, they replaced him with Brashad Perman. They drafted Denzel Mims, but again, Mims
now is dealing with a hamstring. And that was all before they traded Jamal Adams, which, by the way, they did get a pretty good haul concerning they you know, they you know, he was in a point where they really could have held him and done whatever they wanted. But they got a pretty good haul for him. But then you know CJ. Moseley opted out. It's it's just no good. It's no good. And they have, you know, a side, but they're not going to be a good team.
They have a terrible schedule, as you mentioned. They're out West two straight weeks, by the way, in Seattle and Los Angeles, Like that's just like a I don't know, it's a shot at them, it's I'm surprised that hasn't moved much. I get that it's juiced. You know that they're trying to get you. Actually, yeah, they're trying to get you. Take the over it's plus one ten ye, you know, I get it. But yeah, that's my favorite
one too. And the guy, you know, my boss is listening to this because he's like a closet Jets fan, and he's definitely gonna be mad at me. But I agree. I liked him kind of At the over, I thought they get seven eight wins, But now I'm firmly on the underrege.
Well, look, I mean I think that the popular play is the Patriots on the under right. I think a lot of people have faded the Patriots with nine and a half wins, and I don't really hate that play. If I was going to take a second play to bet on, I think it would be the Patriots at nine wins nine and a half.
That hulk I think matters.
I think nine and seven is legitimate record for the Patriots, given the number of people who have opted out on that defense. Don't a high tower and whatnot. They've drafted well, but historically speaking, Patriot players don't step in right away and contribute, in particular on the offense side of the football.
But you know, they've got Damien.
Harris who's been getting more and more reps, who seems to be taking the place of Tony Michelle, who has been sort of the bane of Patriot fans for a long time about his inability to break tackles. And you have a big home run hitter at the running back spot, so you know, maybe it's an Alabama back that will come in here and help that Patriot offense out. But I think the biggest X factor is just the play calling. With Cam Newton at the quarterback spot. Jared Stindham was
never going to start for the Patriots. It was always going to be Cam Newton. So I think the play calling is going to look a lot like when they had Jimmy Garoppolo back in the deflate eight years, when you had a chance to roll them out to get him on the edge, get him up against a linebacker or a cornerback and let him go make a play. So I do expect the offense to be a little
bit better than people think, But the defense. I'm worried about the defense with the Patriots because of the number of players that they've lost due to COVID nineteen opt out. So I think the Patriots going nine and seven and either tying for the division or winning the division is very likely. But that's why people liking Buffalo to win ten games potentially and win the division at ten and six not a crazy statement. I just I don't like
Josh Allen at all. So I mean, to me, Patriots under nine and a half is not a horrible play either.
Yeah, I'm not going to touch the Patriots. I think if I look at the you know, all of their parts, it's not a ten win team. So I would be fine to go under. But I'm just I'm not gonna
do it. Like I'm not I'm not going to bet against Belichick or McDaniel's figuring out a way to max and they have the maybe from top to bottom, the worst group of pass catchers in the NFL when you really sort of look at it, you know, considering everything, But I don't know how much any of that matters, Like it really, you know, the hits that their defense took and everything like that, I don't know, I.
Know they're going to run the ball. I mean, they're not gonna throw the ball much with Cam. That's why they brought Cam in. I mean that they're gonna throw. I mean Edelman will get his catches, and they like the two tight ends they drafted, you know who are coming in. But I mean, I think that Nikhil Harry might take a big step forward in year two. You hope, he was the first round pick up wide receiver, so you hope with Cam Newton maybe you know, there's more
trust there. Bradie didn't trust him at all, so maybe there's a step forward him in his career. But they're going to try to beat people, you know, twenty three twenty they're just not going to be the Chiefs. You know, they're not gonna try to run. I mean unders on Patriot games probably are going to be pretty successful to bet on, just because of the way they're gonna try to play this year.
Yeah, no, I like it. So I think the one play that we both really like is under on the Jets sixty and a half wins. I'm surprised, like I'll be on this, Matt, like, I you know, I you know, not that I monitor sort of the market. But you know, I follow chart betters and you're pretty intune. Do you know anybody, anybody who knows what they're doing, who's on the over on the Jets, Because I just hear not everybody is on the under.
Yeah, it's either no play or an underplay. I don't think you can realistically bet the over on the Jets, just given what we're talking about. And look, Adam Gase Le'Veon bell on Twitter being angry about practices and I'm used to go go go type stuff. I mean, it's just there's a whole lot of problems in red flags around for coach.
Matt he's a terrible, terrible coach. And I said this, and I joke not to get an intangent. We'll move on now. But I said this when they were considering who to hire, and it was between him and Mike McCarthy. Now, to Mike McCarthy's absolute credit, he has gone into Dallas and he has said I'm not implementing my own system. I'm gonna trust what Kellen Moore is doing and I'm leaving that there. That's to his credit, But I knew
if they signed McCarthy, that's like a four year higher minimum. Right, he can't tank for a year or two and you can be like on with Gas. I was like, okay, fine, try it with Gaye. See what happens. He brought the Dolphins to the playoffs that one time. If he's terrible, you can ditch him after a year and a half, which is exactly what they're gonna do, right, I mean if he maybe he survives this season, but he's not gonna be the coach of the Jets next season.
Yeah. No, I agree, he's fine.
Letting him burn this whole thing to the ground. I do like Darnold. I'm a low bullshanam. I think he's been put in a tough situation for a long time, but hopefully he can at least show some promise with the ofvinsive line. All right, let's move to the north here. Raven's over under eleven and a half even on the over minus one of six on the ender Steelers over
under nine. Both sides are even. Brown's over under eight and a half juice to over a bit mice one twenty five even on the under, and the Bengals over under five and a half over is minus one thirty four under at plus one ten. So who do you like in the North?
Look, I understand that people think that Zach Taylor is going to be a good coach, But I covered Zach Taylor at Nebraska. He's a very smart dude. Dad's a coach football mind, not a head coach. Not right now, too young, too much, too early, and now you're giving him a quarterback he has.
To play in Joe Burrow? Who I like?
Who will be a good quarterback down the road? I'm on the under five and a half wins with the Bengals. I think they're going to be terrible. I mean, you can't work the way you normally would work with a rookie, and you still have the number one pick, so you have to play the number one pick, and you must put him in a position against NFL defenses where he must read defenses.
I think this is going to be a bad year for the Bengals. I don't know.
In that division, playing the Steelers and the Ravens, I mean, where are the wins coming for that team? I just I don't think. I think everyone's expecting Joe Burrow to be lsu Joe Burrow, and I don't see it. I don't think it's going to happen. I'm on the under for the Bengals.
I can see four games, right, four games kind of hit me. The Redskins, the Jaguars, Oh not the Redskins, sorry, the Washington football Sorry, my mistake. The Washington football team, the Jaguars, the Dolphins, and the Giants. I don't really know what else they do to get some wins there. It's not a good team now, you know, especially this year. This is a year where when you don't have the preseason games, right, you got a rookie quarterback coming in
learning it. It's really tough. It is really really tough. They have, you know, getting Jonah Williams back is going to help the offensive line. They spend a lot of money on their defense coming in. But again, this is a this is a just a terrible division for them to be playing in because you have at least two really strong teams, maybe a third with the Browns. So yeah, I like it out of curiosity because I do have
leans on each of the other one. The Bengals, I lean under, but it's not one all right, let's go one by one. Ravens over under eleven and a half. How do you feel about it.
Look, I think because of the continuity that the Ravens have, you play the over there. But it's so steep. I mean, it's just so tough. I mean twelve games, I mean, could I see them go eleven and five? Absolutely? I just think when you have you know, hardball, and you have the reigning MVP, and you've got that running game and they got deeper at running back in the draft,
that's a really scary team to go up against. I mean, they're gonna in particular in this given pandemic year, the Ravens are really scary to bet the under there, So it's a no play, but I would go over if I had to.
I'm okay to go over on This was just crazy because you're like, great, I'm betting on this team to win twelve ons. They obviously had four team last year. But yeah, like you said, they got better everywhere pretty much. They addressed their deficiencies even that they had their devents. I think their defense is going to be even better.
And you mentioned it as the continuity. There are four teams in the AFC who have the same head coach, the same offensive coordinator, the same quarterback, the same top two wide receivers, the Ravens are one of them. It's a team. Look, even if you know Jackson got injured, like you know obviously you know you don't you're not excited about Robert Griffin the third, but he could run that offense pretty well in terms of knowing exactly how
to do these the same style of quarterbacks. So I just think in the end there would be something where I'd be willing to go. How do you feel about the Steelers at over under nine?
You know, it's interesting because the receiving corps, you know, they had a couple of guys last year didn't perform because of the injury with Ben Roethlisberger that they thought would step up and be bigger weapons inside that offense.
And you look at the running game and you know the defense.
I really have a tough time with this team because if Roethlisberger comes back in plays at you know, vintage Ben.
Roethlisberger, they could be really difficult to go up against.
It's just I don't know what Ben's got left in the tank, and I don't know about the arm. I mean, the arm was pretty serious. That injury was pretty serious to him. So I'm staying away until I see what Ben Roethlisberger looks like. I guess if I had to bet it, i'd bet the under to have them go eight to eight.
But I don't.
I really that's a until we see Roethlisberger, I've got no clue what that team's gonna look like.
Yeah, I mean they went eight and eight last year. Man, I mean, and you and I could have been playing quarterback and probably would have been just fine. So I agree this is one where I would love to be able to see a preseason game, right. I would love to be able to see what it looks like when Roethlisberger throws the football. But I don't know, man. I'm
with that defense, strong offensive line again, continuity, right. Other than the fact that Roethlisberger only started the one game last year, it really is something where this is a team where I think they could really make some noise if Roethlisberger he doesn't have to be what he was, And my guess is they are not going to be this team that throws it a million times and airs it out like crazy quite as much because, yeah, that elbow injury, that's a serious injury. But you know, Connor
is great in the passing game too. You can see dumpoffs. I think, you know, Juju Smith Schuster. People are kind of like, oh, I don't know, last year, throwout last year. You know, I really like Deanta Johnson. He's a great route runner, and James Washington there. I kind of like the addition of Eric Ebron. He's not my favorite tight end, but I do think that adds a little dimension. And they still events McDonald so again, strong defense. That's a team that I kind of like to go over the
nine wins. I don't love it, but I lean that way. And I do want to touch on the Browns eight and a half because people are excited about the Browns right now and not as excited as they were last year. But you know, obviously Kevin Stefanski coming in, he's a first year head coach, but he ran the offense in Minnesota last year, and you know it works the type of things he's going to do for Mayfield. They've rebuilt the offensive line a bit, They're going to be a
lot of play action passes. They've got a lot of good things going on. Are you in on over on the eight and a half of the Browns?
I would bet the over if I had to, it's a no play because of the fact that there's a brand new coaching staff and it's Mayfield's third new offense right already. Yeah, him coming in third new head coach. So I mean this is really a lot of turnover. It's a lot of changes for a young quarterback who has to prove it this year. I mean, he's got a lot of attention on him because well, he likes the attention, but also because of how badly things went last year for them. So I mean Obj is going
to have a big year. I really do think he's going to step out and really show out and play well. I think the addition of an offensive minded coach to be the head coach is really going to work better. I think a guy who's got more respect in the locker room also, I think will work out better. The defensive line for the brown They've invested so much draft capital on that defensive line. Those guys have got to play better. They've got to be the leader of that
defense and really reek havoc this year. And they might be able to do that given the fact that teams aren't able to practice. So I'm expecting the Browns to be better. But it's mayfield and injuries and the division, right, I mean, you're playing the Browns, You're playing the Steelers twice, in the Ravens twice, so that's that's difficult, and you could go technically zero to four in those games and really put your bet in jeopardy with the road games
and the other non division games that they've got. So I would bet the over, but I'm not. I wouldn't do it just because I'm I'm concerned about a new head coach coming in and not having his system in place.
Yeah, again, it's a lean over for me. I'm not super excited about it. And obviously they're already dealing with a pretty big injury in their secondary with Greedy Williams. So it is something though, where you know, I'm I'm I was optimistic lass Yard. I was kind of buying into it, and obviously it was a complete disaster. I
like the addition of Austin Hooper too. I don't think Hooper is really an elite tight end athletically at the very least, but I think adding him within Joker, you know they're gonna run a lot of two tight end sets, So I do think that the offense is going to be pretty efficient and it's gonna suit Baker well. If again he can everybody can focus, and they can get
off to a good start again. It's one of these teams where if you get off to a bad start like last year, things could just go south really quickly. So I think getting off to a fast start is important for them. Let's go into the south here. This
is an interesting division. Colts over under nine just toward the over minus one seventeen even on the under, Titans over under eight and a half over is minus one thirty plus one oh seven on the under, Texans over under seven and a half, minus one oh six on the over, minus one fifteen on the under, and the Jaguars over under four and a half, minus one thirty on the over even on the ender. What do you think here?
All right?
I think you and I might be on the same page here because this was another Daily Juice gave a couple of weeks ago. I love the Titans here and the Titans over eight and a half wins. I just think this is a team that, after they got the taste of it last year, going on a deep playoff run. I think Henry getting his new contract is big. He wants to out there and prove it. I like the receiving corps a lot. The defense is Stiller and Mike Vrabel I think is coming into his own.
He might be the.
Best Patriot Tree Belichick Tree disciple. And he didn't coach at a Belichick he played under him, which is the big difference between him and everybody else that's come through the Belichick tree in the Belichick regime.
If you will. In New England, I am bullish on the Titans this year.
Yeah. I like him too.
I do.
And again, this is one of these teams where you've got continuity, and that is a huge thing coming in. Same head coach, offensive coordinator, quarterback, wide receiver one, wide receiver two. I love AJ Brown. I really let you know. We do fantasy obviously, so AJ Brown is one of my guys. Another guy that we work with loves John new Smith, who I agree. He's very athletic, talented. They made Henry happy. He's going to be able, you know
with the deal, they're going to run it. I like Ryan Tannell, you know, is he going to be as efficient as he was last year? No, because you can't possibly be that efficient as he was last year. But he's a very solid NFL quarterback, can do what they want to do. So I do like them a lot, especially at eight and a half now. The Colts were at eight and a half earlier in the offseason. I
like that. What do you think about the Colts because I'm I'm pretty bullish on the Colts prospects this here as well.
So yeah, all right, so look at you.
You're bringing in Philip Rivers to come in to replace a quarterback that Jacoby Brissett was they thought was going to be the answer, and he turned out to be not the answer. He was good in the beginning and then not very good at the end. So they bring in a guy who has one or two years left. But Rivers is going to play because he wants to keep going and he wants to prove he's got a lot left in the tank. It's much similar to Brady and where Brady is in terms of okay, it's a
proven year, right, Okay, how good were you? He? I mean, Rivers has a Hall of Fame career, He's got a Hall of Fame resume, but he doesn't have that championship on his finger and he wants it desperately. This is a team with an insane offensive line, a very good running game, a good receiving corps, and I mean, you look at some of the games. The Colts are very fun team to bet on every week because they do a great job of covering the spread. They're very good
against the spread. And this is supposed to be Andrew Luck's team, so it was built for a passing quarterback like Philip Rivers, and the defense took a couple of nine steps forward last year. I love the coaching staff. The continuity is there from the coaching staff perspective, even though it's a new team, a new quarterback for this team. But I mean, if I had to bet it, I
would bet the over. And I can't wait to watch these Titans and Colts games because I think the Texans are in trouble and I think these two teams are going to do war this year for this division.
Yeah, I love the Colts. I really did I have all off season. I very much. You know, we joked about it a lot over on the fantasy prost side about what does Rivers have left? I'm firmly I don't think that mid year came last year and he just suddenly fell apart. It does happen. You saw Peyton Manning obviously fall apart towards the end of his second to last year, and then he just rolled right in and was terrible for his final year. I don't think that's Rivers.
I think it was the offensive line. I've mentioned it before. He was just getting bruised and battered. He can't escape from anybody because the guy can barely move. The offensive line is just it's built for him. What they are, the offensive line they have. You know, I love Jonathan Taylor and again Marlon Mack. He's a quality back. They still have Naim Hines. You know how Rivers likes to pass to the running backs. I like their receiving core.
I like adding Michael Pittman Junr a lot. You know, you've got that Mike Williams big receiver that you can sort of use.
I'm real.
I'm a fan of Paris Campbell as well. Like I realized, he's already kind of dealing with injury, but I think this could be a big year for him. I like Uy Hilton everything about them. They traded for the Forest Buckner Rivers. There's no preseason games. Rivers is familiar with the system right because Nick Sirianni and Frank Reich, He's played under them. He knows that this is a team that I really really like. So I think I leaned.
I mean ten wins is a big number, like that is something that I think casual betters don't really think about that much. They're like, oh yeah, sure, ten wins, Like a lot of things have to go right for you to getst ten wins necessarily, but I do.
I'm really I like you.
I'm excited to see the cults on the time.
Well the running game too. I mean, I mean, I think through the draft they added talent. I mean I just think early they may not need much at a Rivers right just to turn the ball over, just you know, pick up third and sixes and let you know, get get to get the team in the right play, you know, be able to recognize defenses, which you know he can do, you know, switch into running plays and find the gaps and find the place to put the football with you know,
your talented offensive line. I just think that that's why early they could get off to a very quick start, a very good stot because of their running game.
Yeah, it's not the greatest schedule that they have. I mean, I don't really think anybody in the South has it, But yeah, I really think they can go to toe to toe with anyone. They're not as good as the Ravens, They're not as good as the Chiefs, but really other than that, especially again, Taylor is going to be an absolute monster. I mean, I don't know when that's gonna happen this year, but by the end of the year running behind that offensive line.
Do you like him Rookie of the Year?
Yeah, I mean I think I do. It's either him or you know, Clyde Edwards Hilaire, who's now got the clear road to go in Kansas City because of Damian Williams opting out. But yeah, I don't know, man, I think in the beginning, I think what could hold him back is at in the beginning, I do think that Marlon Mack is going to factor in more than people realize. Now there are these reports going out and be like, oh, he looks really good in camp and stuff like that. I always thought that's what was.
Going to be.
You're not going to turn it over immediately, You're just not now with no preseason games. But I do think that by the end of the year, Taylor is going to be an absolute monster. I have futures on Kishan Vaughn winning Rookie of the Year, so I think those are not no, not nice. That's not gonna work out for us. I don't think giving the Bucks and given how Rojo is looking, you mentioned the Texans, the Texans
to me are a team. I always think that Texans should go under and then they somehow managed to sort of pull it out. Are you on the under here on seven and a half or.
Yeah, if I had to be, I mean, look at so you have a quarterback and head coach Continuity's standpoint, right, But I think there's some real problems inside that locker room. And Bill O'Brien, he's from my hometown, so I always preference this because I hate crapping on the guy, so I want him to do well, and I've followed him for years, whether it be with the quarterback coach of the Patriots and now head coach of the of the
Houston Texans. I just think the move to get rid of Nuke Edwards Newtonuk Hopkins was a huge mistake, and I just think you don't trade away a DeAndre Hopkins ever, and you are. You have a quarterback that wants a new contract who's watching everyone else get paid, and he wants to get paid, and there's questions as to whether or not your coach, slash GM wants to pay him. And I think that's a huge issue and a huge problem. I just think JJ Watt getting hurt too consistently. You know,
every year he's getting banged up. He's getting older as well. I don't like the Texans this year at all.
Neither do I. And it's gonna really piss me off when they go ten and six and win the division.
It happened, right, It's not happened. Not going ten and six. They're not going to be in this division. They're not good enough to contend with both the Texans, the Titans or the Cult.
So right there, that's why they're not going ten and six.
And tell you right now, I completely believe you, and I think that every year that's some other good out of curiosity. Four and a half a ridiculous number for the Jaguars under or over if you had to go, If.
I had to go, I'd go over just because it's you never know. It's pro football, so it's it's hard to go, you know, four and twelve. But I mean I wouldn't bet it. I mean, who's their quarterback? You know, is Ardner Minshew actually a good quarterback or not?
I don't know.
I like him, I'll be honest. I kind of like him. I really do. And not just because he dresses like the way I feel inside, you know what I mean? I really I do like him. Again, he was quietly quality. What I like about him again, really really good on deep passing. He was the best deep passer, even though he doesn't have that strong of an army. He was the best deep passer in the NFL last year, the best. He had the best passer rating on passes that traveled
over twenty yards. And I like, you know, he can he can extend plays with his leg. I'm not saying I would hitch my wagon, you know, to him for the rest of my franchise, but in terms of what he's able to do. And that's one of the reasons why I think I lean towards the over. Maybe I don't like their defense, but I do think that their offense is going to be fairly capable under minshe you.
Know, yeah, run the ball more hopefully. I mean I hate the coaching staff. I just I just think that there's so many issues there. And you know, did they three years ago? That team was tremendous. I mean, there was just so many talented guys on that roster when we thought the Jaguars finally were going to make some real noise, and then just you know, so many players were either cut or let go or got hurt. So it's tough to be a Jaguar fan. And I still
think that one day that team's playing in London. So you know, if I had to bet it, i'd bet the over, just because it's hard to go four and twelve.
And again the Dolphins, the Bengals, the Lions, the Bears, they're winnable games there right for them. So and it's the NFL, like you said, above them all right, let's hit our last division here. The Chiefs over under eleven and a half over at minus one thirty even on
the under. The Broncos are over under seven and a half minus one twenty five on the over, even on the under, Chargers over under eight minus one twenty five on the over, even on the under, and the Raiders over under seven even on the over minus one oh six on the under. So you made one of the easier futures play I believe in like an early episode of The Juice. But you like the Raiders, is that right?
I like the Raiders over seven wins. And after I made that bet, I was talking to a sports book friend of mine and I said, so, how do I feel, like? How do you feel about me betting on the Raiders over? And he said, what you and the rest of the town. He said, oh really, he said, put it this way. As of August the first, there was one book here in Vegas who had not taken a single under bet on the Raiders for their win total. Every single bet
was on the over. So when you're running with the masses like that, I can't stand it, but I'm not going to back off of it. Look, I think this is a big year for Derek Carr. This is a chance for him to show he can play inside of this offense. Henry Ruggs is coming in. You have a guy who could take the top off the defense. Running game with Josh Jacobs is tremendous, maybe the best offensive line in football. They've got a defense that needs to step up and play better. But I think this is
a team that is poised with the talent. Look, Mike Mayock is on a very good job drafting the last two years. You can hate on the guy and not like him. I'm a big fan. I think he's done a great job. You could hate on Gruden, fine, but this team just to go eight and eight. Yeah, I'm going over Raiders eight and eight.
I mean, I can't get there like I'm not going under because I don't necessarily think they're going to win six. But you know, this is a you know, we Tyra Williams is not as if he was a dominant person, but he's already dealing with the labor impair. I like Hunter Renfro, but again, you've got rookies coming in. Rugs Is are the type of rookie rookie wide receivers, by the way, are they make me particularly nervous as to how they're going to be able to divorce in this
environment right, especially because you just don't have time. Ruggs is the one guy of all the rookie receivers that I don't really worry about, just because again, you can be like, hey, here's what we're going to do. Run a five yard slant and then just go to the house.
Right.
You scort a touchdown on a quarter of his receptions in college, so he is there. But you know, this is a tough division man and their schedule. It's not that great. It's just something where, Yeah, I don't really love him. Is there anybody in the West then who you think is not going to be as good as expected?
Then?
Do you like the unders on any of the teams?
You know, I'm seeing more and more hype on the Broncos, and I understand that the Broncos have drafted, but like you mentioned about rookie wide receivers, you know, I think the Broncos eventually might be really good. Yeah, but how good is Drew Locke and you're asking him to play with a bunch of guys he hasn't had a chance to play in.
A real game with right out of the gate. Yep, So that's my worry.
On everyone's like, oh, Broncos over, Broncos over, and look at the defense and von Miller and Bubble.
I mean, I don't know.
I mean, to me, I would lean under on the Broncos simply because you have to ask. You're asking Drew Locke to get to know these guys very fast and to be able to get on the same plan.
Noah faint.
I know there's some guys up there who put up some big numbers and they got some guys coming back. But I just I'm curious about continuity for that offense and if you need that offense to score a bunch of points, which you're going to if look at the offense with the division, with the Chargers, Chiefs and the Raiders, you got to score to be in contention in this division. I just I don't think the I don't think the
Broncos are there yet. I mean eventually if Lock's the guy the next year, but I would go under this year.
Could not agree more. It's not something where I'm running out to be like, oh, give me the give me the under on the Broncos because they could easily surprise. Their defense is legitimate. I love Jerry Judy, I really do. I think he's gonna have an incredibly bright future and he could be great this year. It is Lock for me, and I don't want to say that he'll never develop into you know, Areas only won four and one last year. I mean, he didn't do anything to really get there.
I was not impressed with them. And again continuity. It's a new offensive coordinator coming in here, right with Pat Trummer. You've you've got a new system. You've got rookie wide receivers that are already dealing with an injury to Hamdler. Melvin Gordon. Fine, but their running game was you know, I don't know, it's I'm not Melvin Gordon doesn't move the needle for me. And obviously, you know, when you're talking over unders, you don't really care that much about
running backs. That's not really what does it? But you know, to me, I don't know, man, I'm not buying this either. It's just not a team that I really want to invest in. What about the Chargers though, because the Chargers are an interesting team to me? I love their defense. I think to Rod Taylor, not a great quarterback, but certainly more than capable twenty two and twenty as a starter. They're gonna have a good running game with Austin Eckler.
They've got they drafted Kelly, they've got Jackson. Their receivers still are there with you know, Mike Williams now dealing with an injury. But Keenan Allen got Hunter Henry is a good head end. I think they're gonna be able to play conservatively, lean on their defense, lean on their run game. Get enough there. I kind of like the Chargers going over the eight wins. What are you think?
Right?
If you could tell me the Chargers stay healthy, I'll buy it. This team can't stay healthy. I mean they get hurt every year. They have catastrophic injuries, massive injuries. I just every time I feel like I'm backing the Chargers, they something really horrible happens and they lose a player, or they lose the you know, a quarterback or starting left tackle or you know, strong safety.
It's just it's really.
An amazing Like, Well, I like the Chargers, but the Chargers are an injury team. So you're gonna have seventy injuries.
So I mean, so I can't bet the over because I don't trust it. I mean I would lean towards the over, but they've got the talent Tyrod. I mean, here's the other question. How many games is Tyrod Taylor playing this year? Because if they lose Herbert, there's gonna be a lot of pressure to play Herbert. So I don't know in terms of like if you're zero and four to start hypothetically, like just say the awful start, Well, then why are you playing Tyrod Taylor? Just play Herbert?
I mean the year's lost anyway. Just give him a year to get ready, to get used to playing NFL football, and then have him good to go for next year when there's fans and stands and whatnot. So, I mean it's interesting watching hard knocks and watching how how tough of a time he's having adapting to the NFL and taking you know, snaps under center, and the fact that he can't his cadence is wrong, like right, getting scolded
about not being able to hike the football. Right, He's a little scary for a guy with a first round pick. But I don't know how long that job is going to be Tyrod Taylor's. So that's why I'm also a little afraid of betting the over.
Yeah, I honestly I think he starts the whole year. I mean, yes, you are correct. If he starts owing four, you know, I don't think they're going to If he starts owned four, then maybe you could see it. But I think I think, really, it's just not a good idea to throw a guy or whatever you know, the team is doing for that year, to throw him into an NFL team when he's not ready to go. And I think that Herbert is not ready to go. I don't think he's going to be ready to go by
week five. I don't think he's going to be ready to go by week eight.
I know he's a project, right.
He's a project. So let him sit on the on the bench for a year and learn. And yeah, obviously if they get injured like they do every year, of course, like what are you gonna do about that? They got a lot of winnable games. And remember, even with how bad they were last year, even with how bad Philip Rivers played, very easily could have had a decent year if they just flipped the script a little bit on the one score games. Right, they just lost tons of
one score games. So you know, to me, with that defense, you know you've got botha and you've got Ingram Lamal Joseph. You know, yeah, right now, I think to Rod, Teller is going to start the whole year, and I think that in the end they're going to be a pretty decent team, so I kind of like them. Well, on the over, I do get the concern.
Noow, your point about losing one score games is interesting because if you remember a couple of years ago, the Raiders won a bunch of one score games and that caused everyone to kind of hammer on the under the under for their winteral I think it was like seven and a half or eight and a half, and they didn't come in everything in six and ten because of all the one score games they had won the year before.
And I think you can You're right. I think you go the other way here, where if you lose a bunch of one score games, just math, just odds, just you know the way sports work, that it evens out. And so next year, this coming year, they win a bunch of those games, they win a bunch of those games. Most likely they're sitting right behind the Chiefs and probably in a wildcard spot and playing in a wildcard game, and we'll see what happens with how they'll perform in
the playoffs. But either it's Tyrod or some Herbert or whatnot. But right, I think this team. This is why I like Hard Knocks, because I wasn't sure about Anthony Lennon, and I wasn't sure if the team liked him all that much and wanted to play hard for him. And watching Hard Knocks really has changed my opinion about him in Los Angeles, and I do think that team is all in on him, and I do think if they're healthy, there'll be a team to watch.
Yeah. I kind of like what they're doing. And again, remember they were losing those games. They weren't healthy, and they're never healthy, as you sort of mentioned. So now you combine health, you flip the script a little bit. I think they can get past hay Wins. Let's finish up with the Chiefs again, like the Ravens. Another big number, like the Ravens, another team that's just like, okay, you
want continuity. I mean, the Chiefs are legitimately identical the last year, except that they've basically replaced Damian Williams with Clyde Edwards Hilaire. So eleven and a half. Is this one where you'd be like, if you are forcing me to bet, you'd go over or is this one if you'd you know, shyway, given.
The number, look in the pandemic, they may go fifteen and one, right, I mean they might.
I mean, I don't.
This is I look at this team and I see the Patriots of two thousand and seven, and I just see an absolute offensive buzz saw that it doesn't really matter until the playoffs to expose some of their weaknesses. And I think there are weaknesses Like the seven Patriots, there were weaknesses on that defense, and there are weaknesses on that defense still for the Chiefs. And I do think they're going to be in salary cap jail very soon for all the big deals that they have done.
And I do think that if there is a drop in the salary cap due to the COVID in the pandemic and they have to drop it down, that they'll be cutting or trading players. But for twenty twenty, they're the best team in football and it's not even a debate. And I don't really see you know, they may drop a game or two games, but yeah, they're going over that number in my mind.
Yeah, I mean too, I don't think they've gone under their win total under Andy Reid. I think I saw that stat somewhere. I can't remember where it is whoever put it out, Sorry about that, But I think since Andy Reid got to the Chiefs. They've gone over their win total every year. I can't verify that, but I
read that somewhere. Here's you know, for me, the one thing that we didn't talk about, by the way, with the Ravens and the Chiefs, there's one by this year, Matt, right, there's one playoff by you don't have the top two seats, right right, So if you've got the Ravens and you've got the Chiefs, even if they win their division, and even if they're cruising to the top two seats, they
got to keep going, you know what I mean. They may be thirteen, you know, thirteen to two heading into that final week and be like, shoot, we don't have the buy right now, you know what I mean. They may be going full boar the entire year just to get that one locked up. So I think that's a little extra motivation when you're going. But I agree, I think it's over you know.
Yeah, Look, I just think it's a team where they are doing things offensively. In bringing in Edwards Hilaire as well is going to be another addition, I mean, another step forward for that offense. Young guy with tons of tread on the tire and catch the football and a bowling ball to run through that offensive line. I just think that they are doing things right now that it's going to make it so difficult for teams to stop them. And look, Terry Kill's injury is a little scary, and
I was going to recommend on betting pros. I need to see him if I can, like run a play a game because Week one, on Thursday Night against the Texans, the Chiefs are laying ten and I think they're going to destroy the Texans by like thirty.
But to me, Tery Kill to be healthy in those games.
But I think folks are going to be coming in and I think the sports books are going to need whoever the Chiefs are playing every single week this year.
Yeah, no, absolutely, They're going to be an incredibly public team. And you know the thing is, again you saw sharing the playoffs. That was my favorite live betting experience, by the way, is when they fell behind the Texans and just waiting for both games. You knew, you knew what was going to happen in game. You're just no, no, no, no, wait for it, wait for it, wait for it. You knew the odds. Eventually we're going to go where you could sort of Fire one off and yeah, man, I
don't know this. I gotta be honest by see you talk betting every day on the podcast and on your radio show. This is like my first chance to have really gotten into a discussion about it. This is again the juice is flowing, you know what I mean? We get two weeks from today, recording this on Thursday, two weeks from today opening night. I'm so excited.
Thank you, Chiefs playing ten, Chiefs laying ten.
Dude, come on, Tyreek, Hi'll be healthy so we could go all in on it. Thanks for coming on, man. I can't wait to talk about it more. Next week we'll talk about what we're gonna be doing in season, but for now, I really appreciate you joining me for this one and it was a good time. Man.
Can't wait for next.
Week, all right, don't forget to go head over to bettingpros dot com check out all our consensus lines, and do not forget to check out the Daily Juice podcast, hosted by Matt Parlt, who you heard here today. It is a really, really good listen. I would listen to it even if I didn't invent the concept and have to get that feedback it's really great. It's every single day and Matt, you know, offers a lot of insight.
We will be back next week talking about the NFC and then man, we are talking about Week one, ready to go. We'll talk to them