Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris along with Bau mcbrair. We've got a betting preview of the three m Open on tap for today. It's the second last event on the PGA Tour calendar before the FedEx Cup playoffs. But first let's quickly touch on the final major of the year, the Open Championship. Scotti Scheffler is your champion Golfer of the year. He wins the opening a runaway at royal Port Rush. Scotty opened with a sixty eight on Thursday and was one shot behind
the pack. He grabbed the thirty six hole lead with a sterling round of sixty four on Friday. He stretched that lead to four with the sixty seven on Saturday. Then he birdied three of his first five holes on Sunday to effectively grab the claret jug with both hands. Scotty's only hiccup on Sunday was a double bogie in the eighth hole when he had some trouble with a fairway bunker, but by then his cushion was so big that not even a crooked number could introduce some drama
to the proceedings. Harris English finishes second, four shots back Chris Goderup, who had won the Scottish Open a week earlier. He finished solo third at royal Port Rush, Hot tong Lee, Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark tie for fourth, and twenty twenty four Open champion Xander Schoffley and favorite son of Northern Ireland Rory McElroy finishing a tie for seventh after
acquitting themselvesselves pretty well all week. Bow Your takeaways from Scotti Scheffler's first Open championship victory, Well.
We can't call it flawless, but it was as close to flawless as you're going to get for an Open championship. The scoring was pretty favorable. That Royal Port Rush is just a really tough golf course, so even with premium scoring conditions, it wasn't that easy unless your name was Scotti Scheffler. Uh, he's just so good. He's he's a machine, and that's from tee to green. You expect him to be the best in the field. But last the week before last at Scottish he was one hundred and eighteenth
in strokes gain putting. He finished number one in total putts and number two in strokes game put in the whole field at the at the Open Championship, if Scotty's in the top five of putting, nobody has any chance.
Period.
That's just it. Like, even if Scotty's in the top forty, he's probably gonna win if he's putting well enough to be in the top forty, if he's putting number one or number two in the field, it's a it's a shock that he only won by four. Honestly, that's that's how good he is. From Teita Green and we thought for sure that he couldn't read the greens as well as other stateside greens. But he figured something out. And if if happy he learned how to putt, it's no
stopping him. Scotty Scheffler might not celebrate his win too long, but he's he's gonna celebrate, And I mean, it's just it was fun to watch. He's a lot of people call him boring. I think it's the opposite. We're watching greatness, and anytime we're witnessing greatness, I have to pinch myself because I get so excited to watch just how pristy his game is. From every club in the bag, his
mental game is insanely strong. This guy is just he's an all time great already and it's a privilege to watch that unfold at the Open Championship.
Yes, Scotty, he wasn't great on the tee all week. He caught some good breaks. There were a couple of times where balls could have gone into the thick stuff and bounced and stayed up in the light stuff. But man, the distance control on his irons and wedges, the scrambling, I mean, the gamer on the green and like you said, bo, I mean he I know he was vexed by the faescue greens at the Scottish Open. Not so much a royal port rush. He was dialed in. It was a
sight to behold. Do we think it might have been closer if we had gotten some more Scottish weather because it looked like San Diego out there on the weekend.
Yeah, And that's kind of what surprised me is that Scotty Scheffler dominates when the weather is good, and I think is his game strategy hasn't really played out for Scottish weather or Northern Irish weather. The Open Championship is usually marked by great scoring conditions when the weather's perfect and then unplayable conditions darn near when the weather's it's just when the wind is up. And Royal Port Rush is a brutally difficult golf course when the wind is up.
We just didn't get any wind, and so Scotti Scheffler's high ball flight. He's good at flighting it down, but his real strength is when he's just better than everybody else at gauging distance and hitting the center of the club face with his irons, and there's really no extra calculus to it when there's no wind to factor in. Where you might see a Tommy Fleetwood or Rory McIlroy or Harry Hall kind of kick it into gear. Those are the Shane Lowry's of the world. Those guys need
inclement weather to kind of equalize the field. Against Scotti Scheffler, we didn't get that, and honestly, it was his off the tea game that made it a mercy kept it from being a mercy. Rule Like the two thousand Open Championship when Tiger blitz the field with nineteen under, it reminded me of that. It was not quite as dominant, but it was more of like, okay, if the wind doesn't pick up. Nobody's got a chance to even catch him.
And even how tong Lee was just like, I'm playing for second place here, I'm being realistic and that's refreshing to hear that you really did. He didn't know that he wasn't going to have a chance, but he also figured chances are Scotty's not going to beat himself.
Yeah, definitely not. And what a change in weather at Royal Port Rush from twenty nineteen one of the saggiest Open championships in history probably to you know, sun and looked like they were in Fiji or something for much of that tournament. But before we move on, Scotty's performance sort of rekindled the Scotty versus Tiger debate. We touched on that earlier this year. Briefly, where do you think Scotty stands visa v. Tiger in terms of all time golf greatness?
I don't think he could attain what Tiger attained. Tiger completely reinvented the game of golf. Tiger saved the game of golf in the mid nineties. It went from a very much a fourth or fifth level sport on TV to must see TV in the majors and anytime he teed it up. So the level of greatness is probably comparable, especially since Scotty's doing this against stronger competition on tougher golf courses than Tiger did. At the same time, what Tiger did for the sport as greatness, I count that in.
And I don't think Scotty has the personality or the want to to be a Tiger Woods, and that's fine. I just I want to say the game is on par with Tiger, but what he's doing to invigorate the entire sport, it's just not there because it's it's not that he wants to be there, and there's so many other talented players that can carry that torch for Scotty, and Scotty can just go out and keep winning tournaments and be ho hum family guy. That's his place in
the sport. And I don't fault him for it. I just don't think that we need to be putting those two side by side, because if you're saying vis a vis Tiger is not reachable, He's He's a seven hundred yard par five into the wind. He's not reachable for anybody, that's just not going to happen. And I don't think Scotty is interested in reaching Tiger status, and Tiger's still Tiger. Like, if Tiger showed up to a healthy to a tournament tomorrow, we'd be talking all about him and not about Scotty.
What does that tell you at fifteen?
Yeah, it does remind me sort of the Jordan Lebron debates. And you know, a lot of the people who bring it up and people who sort of think that Scotty is on par with Tiger were maybe, yeah, people from the younger generation who weren't around for the best of Tiger. And yeah, like to me, Jordan was the competitive fires burn brighter in him than an any other NBA player ever. And I think he could say the same of Tiger Woods.
And there were times when we saw it wasn't necessarily the best players of Tiger's arab besides Tiger who gave him the best battles. I mean, he got his best fights from some unexpected people Rock Omediate, Bob May, Chris DeMarco. But like, those guys were playing the best they had ever played in their lives, and like it took a heroic effort from Tiger to beat those guys, and he still managed to beat all those guys when they brought their finest.
I don't think this is quite the lightning rod of topic like Lebron and MJ. Because where I see Lebron is certainly an all time great. I see him as the catalyst for that debate because he came into the league as a high school graduate straight in wearing number twenty three. Wanted to be like MJ. He wanted to be Air Jordan. He wanted to be the next Air Jordan, and he shot for the moon and for a lot
of people he reached that status. He read he reinvented the game of basketball like MJ did in his era. So I think that those two are a lot closer than Scotty trying to reach a level of notoriety and all that that Tiger reached through complete dominance. Like Scotty's winning tournaments and he's winning majors. But it's only been three four years and Tiger did this for a decade and a half straight. Yeah, So yeah, if Scotty wants to be the legend of Tiger, he's going to keep
up this pace for another decade straight. Good luck. I hope you do it. I don't know if he actually wants to, though, you might be riding off into the sunset long before that.
Great point, all right, closing the book on the Open Championship. And by the way, Ryan Girard won last week's Barracuda Championship here in the state. It's a nice win for the twenty five year old Girard. Now we're on to the three M Open. We'll get to it and the betting preview in just a moment, but first.
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So after two weeks of links golf in Northern Europe, we are back in the US for more familiar Parkland golf. The top players are sitting this one out in Minnesota, but it's a reasonably deep field for the threem Open, and we're going to see a lot of the mid level PGA tour pros teeing it up this week to better position themselves for the FedEx Cup playoffs. The three im Open will be played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. It's a par seventy one that will play at seven
four hundred and thirty one yards. The course was designed by Arnold Palmer with input from Native Minnesota Tom Layman. TPC Twin Cities certainly isn't a difficult course by tour standards, but it's not without danger. There's water water everywhere, not a drop to drink. Water comes into play on fifteen holes at TPC Twin Cities. A lot of those water hazards will threaten players t shots and a lot of those water hazards run down the right side of holes.
Slicers beware lefty hook or lefty hookers. That's right, don't want to leave out my left time.
I'm not a hooker, pat Okay.
The fairways are pretty generous at TPC Twin Cities and it has some big greens. We're going to see a higher than usual percentage of greens and regulations, so chipping in bunker play scrambling won't be as important this week. The greens are bent grass. It's fairly long course three to the part. Three of the four par threes are longer than two hundred yards, and all three of the par fives are between five hundred and ninety and six hundred yards. That includes the five hundred and ninety sixth
eighteenth five hundred and ninety six yard eighteenth hole. It's a risk reward par five that plays shorter than its length if players are willing to try a risky second shot over a pond. Now the defending three M Open champ as Jonathan Vegas. Johnny Vegas finished seventeen under par last year to beat Max Grazerman by one shot. Lee Hodges was a runaway winner in twenty twenty three with a score of twenty four under par. Tony Final was seventeen under to win in twenty twenty two, and Cameron
Champ won in twenty twenty one. He was fifteen under. The weather forecast for the tournament, high temperatures in the low eighties all four days chances for rain each day, but no apparent danger of a washout. Light wins in the five to ten miles per hour range throughout the tournaments. But now that we have a pretty good sample size on TPC twin Cities, what are some of the things you're keying in on this week when handicapping the field.
It really comes down to ball striking. The opposite of the Open Championship is where you're looking at scrambling and around the green stats pretty heavily. I'm not looking at those at all this week. It's about off the tee prowess. Strokes gained off the tee. Driving distances a bonus in this tournament because of its length and the risk reward propositions on the par fives as well as some of
the longer part fours. A birdier better percentage, of course, on easier golf course like this, you gotta have guys that a have opportunities gained at a high rate as well as be the birdier better percentage to convert those opportunities.
So a lot of overlay there, and then this, because of all the water hazards, you got to throw in some bogie avoidance trying to avoid the big number below up is it's kind of it's kind of killed a couple of potential winners like Grazerman, who I bet on last year, who probably would have won if he didn't find some hazards, some penalty areas during his course of
the of the tournament. It's it all comes down to making lots of birdies and avoiding that really big crooked number, and then ball striking, ball striking, ball striking approach, game driving. It's going to be really important to get from tee to green and then a hot putter. I'm looking at the last twenty four rounds of putting on bent grass and that should round it out. It's a pretty straightforward
model this week. Not a lot of filtering. I just want to make sure that we get the hottest golfers playing the best golf right now, and the guys who can convert enough berties to win this thing.
It'll be interesting because a lot of the players with shorter odds are big hitters who are not great in the driving accuracy category. We'll take a look at those odds in just a moment. Right after Bow tells you about no vague.
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Let's dig into the odds for the three m open. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. As a Monday afternoon, Sam Burns opens as the favoritest at plus sixteen hundred. Chris got her up was red hot and Sktlin in Northern Ireland. In the past two weeks, he's plus eighteen hundred, as is Maverick McNeely, Max Grazerman and Taylor Penrith are plus twenty eight hundred. Plus thirty five hundred are Michael Thorbiornson,
Jay Knapp, Tony Finow, Davis Thompson or Ricky Foller. And the big group at plus four thousand includes Akshay Batilla, Max Homa, Kurt Kitty Yama, Keith Mitchell, Milliano, Grio, Sung JM and Seewu Kim. Who do you like from this group?
Oh? Right off the top? I did see Sam Burns recently slip to eighteen to one to be the same line as Chris Gottrup. I like Chris Gottrup's form, especially his tee degreen game has never been in question. His short game has really showed a resurgence, especially last two weeks. He's won two point seven million dollars last two weeks. Pretty solid for a trip around the links a few times. I like him in eighteen to one as the outright
betting favorite. His te degreen game is really going to play here, his distance will definitely play here, and he's riding a hot putter. So let's let's get on the Chris Gottrup train and ride it until the wheels fall off. He's only what twenty four years old, He's got a lot of future ahead of him. As far as other guys in this range, I'll hone in on another guy who's a long hitter who makes a lot of birdies, especially in this kype of tournament. I like Michael thorpe
Jornsen but and Akhabatiya Kurk Kitdem. But these guys are all in my model pretty highly ranked. But I'm gonna go to Jake Napp. Jake Nap is the kind of guy that thirty five to one the handicapped system for me. I had him more of his a twenty five to one pick in this field, and to get an extra ten points out of the bet really sings to me. All the other guys that I like are a little too short for my liking based on how I handicapped it.
So I will stick with Jake Nap at thirty five to one to round out the favorites.
Oh, you know, I'm a Jake Nap guy. BO. He's finished inside the top thirty in each of his last four events, including a Big Cista, Big Siesta, including a fourth place finish at the Rocket Classic. Napp did withdraw from last year's three M Classic, ostensibly due to a shoulder injury or because he was having a miserable third round. Nap is a big hitter and ranks twelfth in strokes game putting, but he does rank one hundred and sixty first in driving accuracy.
BO.
That's kind of the same deal with Chris got Her Up too. You know, got Her Up is second on tour in driving distance, one hundred and fifty seventh in driving accuracy. Got Her Up is like, I wonder if there's any sort of could he be a little emotionally spent after two weeks of you know, winning one and contending in another, and you know, then coming back overseas. I just I feel like Jake Knapp gives you a very similar profile of player at a much better price.
It's yeah, it's it's definitely there. I like both of them. I'm going to bet on both of them. I'm not going to be over my skis investing a lot of money in any of these guys, but I have enough guys that I really like that I'm going to kind of buckshot approach it this week with small investments and a lot of guys. So with the way I'm spending my money this week, I'll take a chance on both of them. But I do get your point with the line on Nap is unbelievably good and got her up
as a favorite to eighteen to one. I'm just taking a chance that he stays hot. He despite being not that accurate off the tea, he still strokes gained off the ta number eight in this field, that's actually number six in this field, and strokes gained off the tea. That's good enough for me. A twenty fifth and overall ball striking and riding the hottest putter of his entire career. That's where I'm going there. It's just the upside's good
and payoff for a betting favorite. It doesn't get much better than eighteen to one.
Yeah, the sand Burns couldn't crack the top forty in either the Scottish Open or the Open Championship, but before that he had finished top twenty and seven of his previous eight events dating back to April. Burns has made three previous appearances at the three M Open, finishing seventh, thirty second and twelfth, and he does rank number one in strokes gained putting. Now, Maverick McNeely played reasonably well in Europe the last two weeks, twenty second in Scotland,
twenty third at Royal Port Rush. He finished third at the three M last year. McNeely ranks inside the top forty most strokes gained off the tee and strokes game putting. What about Wyndham clarkbow heated up in Europe, eleventh at the Scottish Open, then surged into fourth place at the Open Championship with that sixty five on Sunday, But he ranks one hundred and thirty eighth in driving accuracy, one hundred and fifty seventh in strokes gained on approach.
Not interested at all in Wyndham Clark. He's just too spray happy. He got the benefit of some light wins on a wide open golf course like Royal Port Rush wasn't difficult to find the fairways. It was just kind of like the you just only missed him if you ran through him, like you carried the ball too far. Wyndham Clark really fits that link style play better because he plays along the ground a little bit more. I just don't think he's accurate enough on approach for this tournament.
I think you'd be fine off the tee, but his approach game has not been good. So I'll take a hard pass on Wyndham Clark, especially since he's just kind of been streaky and in the worst way where just when we think he's gonna get hot, he throws out a miscut by five shots and you'res like, Okay, happened. What happened to Wyndham Clark? All of a sudden He went from number six in the world to twenty in like two week span. So I don't think I want anything to do with that.
Just to mention a few of these other guys. Max Grazerman runner up at the Three of Them Open last year. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open and the Open Championship, but had been playing pretty well before that. He's one hundred and forty ninth in driving accuracy, but his driving didn't really hurt him here. Last year, Taylor Pendrith missed the cut at the Open Championship. He'd been
playing well before that too. He was fifth at the three M last year, ranks seventh and strokes gained off the tee, but he's outside the top one hundred and
strokes gained putting. Emiliano Grio is a pretty good track record in this event, with three top tens in his last five appearance appearances plus a twenty fourth last year, and really Grio's worst The worst thing about his game is is scrambling, and that weakness is sort of negated here with the big greens and high greens of regulation percentage. And Ricky Folerball quietly finished top twenty five of his
last eight events. His best finish other than that's over that stretch, though, was only a seventh at the Memorial.
I will keep tabs on Taylor Pendrith. I hate his line right now plus twenty one hundred way too short. But if he slips, he's number three in my model. So if Pendrith gets to thirty five to one, I'll be interested.
All right, Let's look at some more of the odds. Adam Scotts plus forty five hundred, Luke Clanton, Kevin You and Cameron Champ are plus five thousand, Alex Smalley, Matt Wallace, Lee Hodges, Yesters Fencing, Vince Whaley and Rico Hoye are plus fifty five hundred, and at plus six thousand our Patrick Fishburn, Nicholas Norgard, Johnny Vegas, Jacob Bridgeman, Hatong Lee, Sam Stevens and See Thagala, And at plus sixty five
hundred Alex Nora and Maddy Schmidt and Peterson Coody. What about the mid range options.
Bo Luke Clanton all the way number one in my model by a long distance. Really yeah, Luke Clinton, by far number one in my model. He is no worse than forty ninth in any stat which happens to be bogey avoidance. He happens to be a very aggressive player, so not the greatest at avoiding the big number, but forty ninth is still top half of the pack. He's number one, and Birdie's are better. Gain number five an opportunities gained, so he's given himself lots of chances and
he's converting them at an extremely high clip. Number two in ball striking twenty fourth and putting on my model and number four on approach. He hits all the boxes for me. There's there's just one concern that he might make some crooked numbers, but he's been really good at make enough birdies to counteract that. If he could put four days together rather than three, I think Luke Clinton runs away with this. Saying fifty to one is a steal.
I kind of had to flip a coin between him at fifty and Thorby Jornsen at forty and the tiebreaker with Thorby. Jornsen can't make a putt lately, so I was all over that Clinton line, getting extra bit of value there. And then Patrick Fishburne another guy. It's just a great ball striker. He's number one in strokes gained off the tee in this field, fourth and overall ball striking fifteenth and birdie or better percentage. Just great odds for a player that's playing really well. And then eighty
to one. I have Kevin Roy because he's got all the upside in the world. He's playing a little bit shaky on the link style, but when it comes to playing on bent grass, Kevin Roy's got some upside to burn.
Yeah, interesting, you might be talking me in to Clinton hasn't really gotten it going yet, but like you said, there have been moments and he just can't seem to string four rounce together in a tournament. So maybe this is the week. Adam Scott at plus forty five hundred seems like a bargain. We're getting a big name at relatively long odds. But if this event is going to be largely a putting contest, and maybe it does turn into that, do we want to back Adam Scott in a putting contest?
I don't.
Yeah.
Cam Champ is a pretty strong history at the three M.
He won this event in twenty twenty one. In the two three am appearances since, he's finished sixteenth and twelve Before missing the cut at the Barracuda last week, Champ had finished top twenty and three of his previous four events, so he's going to keep an eye on Nora cal hatong Lee is kind of interesting after the strong showing at the Open, but it seemed like he was barely in control of his driver and Hatungley hits everything left to right bo like that is kind of a scary
proposition on a course that has so much water on the right side of holes.
Yeah, yeah, it's a great story though.
It is. And Johnny Vegas not only did he win here last year, he also finished second here in twenty twenty one. Maybe driving accuracy isn't that big a deal here. Johnny Vegas was one hundred and twenty eighth in that category last year. He's one hundred and fifty sixth this year. All right, let's talk long shots, bo, who do you like at odds of seventy to one or longer?
I jumped the gun a little bit with eighty to one on Kevin Roy. But I do like Hayden Springer again this week. He finished top ten at the Barracuda. But Springer just a really solid golfer one hundred and ten to one, just an overall solid player, doesn't really have any weak spots. Chan Kim is playing really well right now. He's at one hundred and seventy to one, and I'll take another norcou guy at two hundred to one. I actually got to chat with him at the barracudah
on Saturday. Isaiah Selinda talk about a birdie making machine that kid can make him in bunches. He hits the snot out of the ball. Yeah, Selinda is a kind of a fun five dollars bet to throw down two hundred to one win a thousand bucks off a five dollars bet. He's already won us money at the Zurich this year, next to Kevin Vello. I just like him a lot. He's He's such a fun guy to have on tour, and I'll keep betting on him because that's just that's good. It's incentive to watch more.
All right, I'll throw out three long shots at various price points at seventy to one. Andrew Putnam, He's done well in some recent events with lesser fields. Eighth at the Rocket Classic, eleventh at the Barracuda. He was also sixth that the Canadian opened, so he can go against some stronger fields. He's finished eleventh and nineteenth in his
last two to three m appearances. One of the shortest hitters on tour, but Putnam does rank fourth and driving accuracy in fifteenth at Strokes Gained Potting Thriston Lawrence bo the South African, pretty good driver of the ball, and.
He's almost made my card. He almost.
Yeah, he's had some good showings in America this year, twelfth at the US Open, eighth at the Rocket Classic, and I'll throw in one deep sleeper Englishman David Skins at two hundred to one. Skins was fourth at the ESCO Championship two weeks ago, eighth at the Barracouda this past week, and he finished twenty fourth at the three M Open last year. All right, bo let's compare early betting cards. Who do you have on yours?
So I got a lot of small ones here at Chris gottr Up at eighteen to one, Jake Napp thirty five to one, Michael Thorbjorn sent at forty to one. If I can get him a little longer, I'm still I haven't put a lot on him yet. Luke Clinton's getting the full ladder at fifty to one, Patrick Fishburn sixty to one, Kevin Roy eighty to one, Hayden Springer one hundred and ten to one, Chan Kim one hundred and seventy to one, and finally Isaiah Selinda two hundred to one.
I'm keeping my card relatively light for now. You've almost got me talked into Luke Clinton, But for now it's Jake Napp at thirty five to one, emiliano'grio at forty to one horse for a course, I kind of like Grio This week, Thriston Lawrence at one hundred and twenty to one, and David Skins for probably two dollars at two hundred to one. Now for our one and done picks,
I took Tyrrel Hatton last week. He felled on the leaderboard on Sunday, finished tied for sixteenth, earning me one thy eight hundred excuse me, one hundred and eighty five thousand, two hundred and fifty seven dollars. Bo took Rory McElroy. He tied for seventh, good for four hundred and fifty one, eight hundred and thirty three dollars. Bow UPS's lead on me to about eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars, and
we only have a few weeks left. Since we're not including the Tour Championship in our competition, I'm up first this week. Bo. I have some concerns that he might be out of gas after the two great weeks in Europe, but I do have to go with the blazing hot Chris Godder up. Who are you taking?
That's who I was gonna pick. Let's see. I want to make sure I haven't used him. I used him. I used him. Man, this isrough. He I burned through all my good guys. This is not great.
I still have Jake Nap in the bag. If you want a double down.
Yeah, let's do it. Jake Nap all right, nagaham or fishburn and I don't think I want to do that.
Jake Nap for bo and Chris Godder up for me. That's all for this week's Betting PROSPGA podcast. Please join us again next week when we'll be previewing the final tournament before the FEDECS Cup playoffs, the wind Them Championship. Until then, so long everyone.
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