Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined today by Terrell Furman Junior and by our guest PJ. Class Or. It's the Save three folks running it back. After last week we talked about the Sweet sixteen and the Elite Eight, we are now talking about the Final Four. We have this historic Final four, all four one seeds, the strongest final four at least according to the metrics
like Ken Pom, basically that we've ever seen. I know that every single round it feels like we're saying, Okay, let's get to the madness, let's get to the fun, let's get to the real, big epic matchups, and then the best teams just keep winning, kind of running away. In a lot of cases we had. We had some really good games over the weekend, but still kind of waiting for that kind of epic feel. I think we're
gonna get that with this final foward just incredible, incredible games. Obviously, we've got Auburn against Florida, We've got Duke against Houston. We're gonna break it all down. Trell, how are you feeling after the Sweet sixteen and Elite Eight? Where were your big takeaways from that weekend.
I'm still very confident. I have sang the praises of Florida and Houston this entire time. Houston has continued not to let me down, and I mean the buckling down and Calvin Sampson, So when this team felt like that it could be over and this could be another moment, it wasn't, and he got this team through it. Excellent play on the out of bounds play. I mean, they've been able to handle business. They were slaughtering Tennessee at half like I wasn't even considering anything else there. I'm
still on the Houston and Florida wave. I'm kno getting off this train. Houston Florida in National Championship. I'm ready. We'll talk about it more, but I'm ready.
Yeah, PJ. That Houston performance against the Tennessee quite the demolition. The game gets predued, like Terrell was mentioning that add of bounds play at the end of the game was one of the better games that we've had, you know, the tournament so far. Once they got passed Gonzaga, who I was trying to kind of differentiate and pick them in the bracket. Once it got past to Kenzagga, I think we all felt pretty strongly about Houston making a
run to the final four. It after that point, obviously, like Florida has had some close ish calls on this run, but they still just look really, really good. And you know, one of the hottest teams in basketball, Duke the best team in the sport, I think lest I would certainly say, seems pretty obvious. And then Auburn just just keeps winning as the number on overall seeds, so like really exciting. What were your big takeaways, PJ.
Yeah, I mean, it's obviously been a chalky tournament so far. We got all four one seeds in the final four. But my takeaway is that it feels like everybody's talking about how chalky it is. But outside of Duke, you know, all these teams have had their scares, right. Houston was challenged by Purduing Gonzagai, like you guys were saying, Florida by Yukon and Texas Tech. Auburn needed a big second half run against Michigan. You're trailing Creighton at halftime. So yes,
these are the four best teams. These are gonna be two epnic games, but they have had some challenges to get here, and certainly Florida. You know that comeback against Texas Tech was impressive. But I'm excited for these games. Yeah, guys, I mean, Ken Palm started in nineteen ninety six, and these four teams are for the top ten highest rated team.
Wild Oh wow, Me and Kim Palm are the same age, me and you both.
Through so these so these are four of the ten best teams in Terrell's lifetime.
Ninety six was a great year. I'd be shy to tell people ninety six was a great year.
So yeah, I mean they're four of the top ten highest rated teams, and all four of these teams are top ten in offense and top ten in defense. So it's just it's it's gonna be epic And hopefully these two games live up to the hype, and I think that they will.
Yeah, I mean, really, these three games, if you include the title game, you know, after we get the winner, like it's hard to imagine. The only world in which I think we get duds, truthfully, is Duke just being a step ahead of everybody else in almost like the last couple of years of Yukon, where we keep waiting for them to stub their toe at some point and face a challenge, and it just never happens. You'd get
the end of the tournament. It's like, well, Duke was just the best team by a mile the whole way. I'm not saying I think that will happen, but that's the only world in which I don't think we're getting three epic games here. So we'll see where it goes. I did notice that when you're talking about Florida facing some you know, difficulties, you mentioned Yukon and Texas Tech. You didn't mention the first half against Maryland, which was
a very close game. I will point out as well, we could ignore the second.
Half of Maryland first half cash.
Yeah, Yeah, that was That was an interesting one to watch, especially with everything going on with Willard, which we are not going to talk about because I need to maintain my sanity. I do want to let everybody know that if you want to boost your final four bets, New FanDuel customers can bet five dollars and win two hundred dollars in bonus bets. If that first bet hits, just head to bettingpros dot com slash FanDuel to get started. That's bettingpros dot Com, slash FanDuel and make your plays
on FanDuel today, guys. Let's start with the left side of the remaining bracket. It's number one Auburn. It's number one Florida. It's the one versus four if you look at the overall kind of s curve seating lines, but they're the two number one. Obviously, we have seen this matchup before, given what we saw in the SEC this year. PJ, as an SEC connoisseur, as a fan of Alabama, I will start with you here. When you start thinking about Auburn and Florida, what's the first thing that comes to mind?
Is it that you really like aside on the total. Is it that you really like laying the points or taking the points? Is it that you expect this to play out similarly to the matchups we saw in the SEC this season. What's the first thing when you think of these two teams going against each other that you think about?
My thought is that if this game is close late, I trust Florida because Florida has Walter Clayton Junior and Auburn doesn't.
That's that's my thought.
The way that I'm betting this game, though, you guys is I think you bet it live. These two teams have showed throughout the regular season, they've showed throughout the tournament two that they can go on runs at any given point in the game. You know, they could have a sluggish first half, they could be trailing in the second half, and then they just go on these eighteen to four. We saw Auburn go on to seventeen to nothing run against Michigan, and that's what I want to
bet into. You know, Florida two and a half, I think that's a little too high. I feel like, honestly, it should be closer to a pick them. But the perception around these two teams right now, and with Florida having Clayton and all the big shots that he's hit, I see why they're two and a half point favorite.
But I'm just I think one of these teams at some point in the game is going to be up by double digits, and when that happens, I want to bet the other side because I think it's going to be close and it's going.
To come down to the wire.
It is interesting, you know, when they played on February eighth, Auburn was a nine and a half point favorite. Elijah Martin didn't play in the game. Now eleven point favorite was that high? I thought it was like nine and a half te point.
Oh, I wouldn't know. I didn't bet Florida.
So eleven point favorite. Now they're two and a half point favorite against Auburn.
I mean, we were talking.
About Auburn is the team to beat in the tournament like three weeks ago, a month ago, and now they have the largest odds to win it all at plus five twenty five or whatever it may be. So I think there's value on Alburn. But Clayton just terrifies me because if the game's close, like, that's the guy that you want with the ball in his hands.
So I think it's a great game to bet live.
You know, whenever we get these games with a short spread and a high total, you expect there to be a lot of points. You expect there to be a lot of lead changes, both teams to kind of go on their runs. So that's that's how I'm gonna bet it. Just wait for one of these teams to go up
double digits and then I'll bet the other side. If you had to maybe pick the game, though, I'd probably go with Florida, man, just because I think it's going to be close, and I just trust Walter Clayton Junior to find a way to win the Gators the game.
Terrell, you've talked already on this episode about how you know you see this as in Florida Houston, and how you've been vettanam Florida.
I was supposed to say that to the end.
Well, I just bring that up to say, so it's clear where you're going with the game. What do you think about from the betting angle? Do you have thoughts on the total? Just looking at the spread, it sounds like you would like Florida, But did you have any betting specific angles to this one?
With the conference games, I like backing the undering conference games in the tournament. I think that familiarity that you have with the team and the time that you have to prepare. You're also putting this in San Antonio, in that filthy, stinking dome that they're playing in, and you know, it's all weird and the death perception of being on the court with all the fans and all that. Like, yeah, I can see myself and taught myself into an under here. Am I gonna do it?
No?
Probably not. I'm probably just gonna put anything that I thought that I was gonna put on the under all on Florida, because, I mean, the issue with Walter Clayton Junior is something that we like in the military, and we call it a nuclear deterrent because everybody knows I have Walton Clayton Junior in my hip pocket just ready to use them, and everybody is sitting there like, all right, let's not antagonize them so that we don't pull out
Walter Clayton Junior. Let's do everything we can to make sure Walton Clayton Junior does not get out into this game. And unfortunately, what that's gonna do is that's gonna actually play in a Florida's actual game plan, which is playing through the Bigs. Condon had a big game that last time around when they went on the road, on the road to the place where everybody was terrified to play basketball this year in the jungle, and got to win
by double digits as an eleven point dog. Like, I think that the Bigs are gonna have something to say, Condon, shemy Lou. I think that they are gonna be really really big for them in this game, and at the end of the game, we may not be talking about Wart Clayton Junior, but we're gonna be talking about those bigs and how those bigs really really aided them and helped them get this win.
Do you guys think, like, just in looking at these two matchups, setting aside who you think is gonna win, are you more excited about Auburn Florida or about Duke Houston? Is there like one of these matchups that you like are really jazzed I mean they're both great, obviously, but is there one PG that you are like more jazzed up for?
Oh, Duke Houston, Because I think the winner of that game wins the national Championship, and I just want to see I want to see how Duke looks against that Houston defense, right. I also want to see how Houston's offense looks against that Duke defense, because we think it do Duke and obviously they're star freshmen and how good
those guys are offensively. But I think it was an eye opener to all of us to watch how they limited Alabama's offense to only sixty five points, So you know that that'll be the big topic of discussion, right, how does Duke's offense look against Houston's defense, because both of those units are so great. But I want to see how Houston's offense looks against Duke's defense because Houston's one of the best three point shooting teams in the country.
And Duke just did a great job against Alabama limiting them eight for thirty from downtown. So to me, that'll, uh, that's the game. I can't wait to watch him. I'm looking forward to seeing that matchup on that side. And also keep in mind, you know, Duke had this stigma around like these John Shire teams. They were kind of soft, right, Like if you if they went up against a team that could like punch him in the mouth, that was kind of the way to beat them.
We don't talk.
About that Duke team this way, and we're we're gonna we're gonna find out real quick about their toughness Houston.
So that's the game I'm looking more forward to.
Terrell. Do you feel similarly about being more interested in Duke Houston?
Yeah, yeah, I always can. You know, I always love to see the Duke Ky's fall flat on their face, So I'm perfectly good with that. I think, really honestly, you could probably scrap the first thirty five minutes of both games for me and give me the last five minutes of both games because I get to either watch Walt Clayton junior go off in the last five minutes of the game and a great game there, or I get to see what Duke looks like and yet another close game. Duke has not been good in close games
this year. Well, how did Clemson beat them? I keep going back to the Clemson game because that's how I forecasted the way for you to beat Duke. You make it an ugly game, You muck it up, you play defense that matches their defense, and you give yourself a chance with the possession in the last couple of minutes of the game, and you force them into putting the ball into their freshman star players' hands and hope for a turnover. Clemson was able to get the turnover and
they were able to steal their win. I think that's how Houston does it. Here again, we're gonna put that pressure on Cooper flag and yes, he is a great player, but at the end of the day, he's still young. He's still a freshman and this is the grandest stage of them all, and Kevin Sampson and this team is
overly due to make it past this stage here. So I think that that's what I'm really really looking forward to the last couple of minutes of the game, because I really want to see if you get Duke into a close game, how are they able to respond? Do they have that pedigree to take it to the next step and win a close game? Because anybody, well not anybody, but they've shown that they can beat teams by twenty plus, But can you beat a team if they bring you into a tie game with thirty seconds to go?
What do you think about that angle? Pg? I mean Terrell is right in games where Cooper flag is healthy, we have not seen this Duke team in a close game in almost two.
Months exactly, which is why you know I've been saying on my show all week, if you like Duke, I just bet him five and a half. If you like Houston, I just bet him on the money line. For everything that Terrell was saying, if it's a close game, I would trust Houston more in that scenario because that's how Houston plays. You know, they play at the fourth slowest pace in the country. Their defense is so great, they wont a half court game. They want to execute in
the final minutes. They want to lean on their toughness and how well coached they are, and all those sorts of things. Duke, I mean, this is what we would see out of all those great and Zaga teams that Mark Few had, right, they would go to two and a half months not playing anybody. You get him in a tight game in the tournament and then they fold and that's how they lose. So I agree with Terrell and yeah, I think if you like Houston, look, obviously five and a half, that's a good amount of points
where you can bet that. I think if you like them, though, you just take him out right. I think if they cover, they win the game. And if Duke wins, I think they cover this group.
Yeah, just looking at the d want experience free troster, Houston averaged over two and a half years of experience is pretty high. It's top forty in the country. Duke is a little under two years. That's one hundred and twenty eighth in the country. So you know, definitely a
gap there. Do you guys see a coaching mismatch in either of these because in both of these matchups it's a veteran coach who has been around for a long time, you know, Calvin Sampson on one end, Bruce Pearl on the other end, going up against kind of a young gun in their first final four you know, John Shire obviously played there as a player, and Todd Golden on the other side. So in either of these matchups, do you guys give a coaching edge to either side?
Terrell, Well, I say Florida because I always just kind of expect Bruce Pearl just kind of crapped a bit at some point and it's kind of over there, So I'll give it to Florida there. But that I think Shire is really good. And I think that's the part that makes me very very concerned about the Dookies making a run and potentially winning a national championship is because
Shire is really really good coach. He has the buy in of the team, the buying of the program, and that's what happens when you go get your guy, Like when you have your guy, you know who the successor is you've been playing in this moment like they were able to do that, and he's getting his flowers now in this first final four, so I'm still going to rock with Sampson, but I think it's clearly it might be a little bit of a bigger edge because again, I just expect Bruce Pearl at some point crap a.
Bit, PJ. What do you think about that? Do you see a coaching mismatch in either of these games?
Not really, I agree with with Terrell.
I think Calvin Sampson is the best coach that's left, and I think he's better than Shire, but I think Shire is really good, So I don't really see that as like a big coaching mismatch or anything like that. And then in the other game, like you just have a great storyline. When Bruce Pearl first got the job with Auburn in twenty fourteen, he hired Todd Golden from Columbia to be his first director of basketball operations, so they know each.
Other extremely well.
He really helped him get his jump start, and then Golden went to San Francisco and then obviously went to Florida after that. So I think all four coaches that are left are really really good. They're all looking for their first national title. But the familiarity there with Pearl and Golden, I think is interesting. I don't really see a mismatch though, in any of these games.
If you like betting on basketball, then join Terrell Furman on the Fast Break Bets podcast your daily dose of basketball betting picks. Tune in every weekday for your rapid fire fix and all things basketball. Check out the Fast Break Bets podcast on the Betting Pros YouTube channel or wherever you listen to podcast. Guys, let's say our just a couple other betting angles before we get out of here. Obviously a little bit of a shorter episode because there's
not that many games to hit on. Are there other betting angles, PJ that you're interested in? You talked about Walter Clayton, maybe him as like most outstanding player in the tournament? Obviously Cooper Flagg, I mean jan I Breuom if Favor makes the title game. There's a lot of really good players, you know clearly that are still playing and that's why these teams are here. But do you have any thoughts on that or any other angles on this one besides who wins the games?
Yeah?
Most outstanding player really no thoughts for me, you know, I think if Florida wins it, it's probably gonna be Clayton. I think if Duke wins it, it probably will be Flag. I think Procter and Canipple are both intriguing as well.
Well.
If you like Auburn, I would actually go with Pettiford rather than Broom. I think, you know, Pettiford's the guy who's probably gonna take and make a lot of the big shots for Auburn if they end up advancing Houston. You would probably think Crier would be the same. But we certainly saw Sharp hit a bunch of big shots on that second half against Tennessee. So I mean, look, this is why all these teams are here. They're all so good. They got multiple options. I think the best
I feel about those. If you like Auburn, you go with Pettiford over Broom. I mean, you're getting a way better price, and we know, you know you win with guard play in March, and he's gonna be the guy for Auburn if they win the whole thing. He's probably gonna hit a bunch of big shots. There are a couple player props that I like in the Duke Houston game that both kind of correlate with one another. And
the way that Houston plays defense. Anybody who watches him play, you know that anytime the ball goes in the post, they always double, and they're so good at it. It comes so quick, they rotate, They're just they're really good at what they do. But because of that, obviously Duke has opportunities that when Houston sends a double to kick it out to shooters, Procter over twelve and a half points I think is a good luck. He's been shooting the ball ridiculous in the tournament so far. I think
twelve and a half's a little too low. He's going over that in three or four games so far. And then come on, Mala, watch the big man. One assist out of him over a half is plus one fifteen. He had one against Bama. He didn't have any in his two previous games before that. But again, the double team comes on him, he's gonna have to kick it out. I think gets an offensive rebound, he's probably gonna kick it out. So the fact that we only need one and it's plus money, those were two props I think.
Off of Houston's defense and the way that they trap in double team I think two guys, two props to keep an eye on Troe.
What do you think about that or any other player props that you're looking at.
Yeah, I'm going for the big fish. I'm got the worm on the real throwing it out there, and I'm going for the big one. Give me the under or flag, give me the under. If flag goes over, gonna be a long day for Houston. I'm all the way in my Houston handicap. They make this an ugly, ugly game. He probably probably still gets up a lot of attempts. Maybe he goes out there and he goes some five for fourteen something like that, like keep him off the line. Like PJ was saying in the post, he's not gonna
get much. Look in the post, he's gonna have to try to create something for himself. And they got really really good individual defenders, and I think they're going to force the ball out of his hands a lot, force him into a bunch of turnovers. If I had a turnover prop, I would probably take up turnover prop. I
like flag to go under. I think that he may have a good game, but getting up to nineteen and a half, close to twenty points here against Houston, and where I think points are going to be at a premium and it's going to be around fifty points to the winner. Yeah, no, I'm good.
All right, let's do it. We'll make our official picks. You have already said, Terrell that you are going with Florida and Houston. Who do you like in that matchup to win it all? Florida? He said, And by the way, I will just mention in looking at the futures right now, I'm seeing Auburn plus five point fifty, Houston plus four hundred, Florida plus three hundred and Duke even Obviously, depending where you look, you might see something a little bit different,
but that's what I'm seeing right now. So with that in mind, Trell, what are you going with?
Sampson gets it, man, Sampson's due, he gets it. I'm going with Houston. Houston wins the National Championship. I think Houston gets it done. Houston first half still really really good player. We're getting plus money this time around, taking it here again too. So I'm on Houston. I think Houston is gonna win the Natty PJ.
Who are you picking? I know you said you kind of view Duke Houston almost as the championship game. You're gonna pick that winner regardless of who they face. Who do you think will win that game? And who do you think they'll be facing.
Yeah, I think it's going to be Duke and Florida, and I think Duke cuts down the net side. They were my pick from the beginning of the tournament. They've looked like the best team up to this point. I went to the Elite eight game against Alabama, you guys, and watching them in person just it blew me away. I went to see Bama against Yukon in the Final four last year. You've seen you con in person really changed my perception, and I knew I would bet them against Purdue just how good they were.
Dou had the same effect. It's just that team.
Man.
Their defense doesn't get talked enough how good they are on that side of the ball. So ultimately, all the firepower they have on offense, but their defense is just as good, and they're the best team.
I think they went a long or and we might have got some in person bias here this is he said, he went and saw the game in person, and now he's back. He might be some in person bias of watching a great team in person, because I remember last NFL season, I went to that Commanders in that Steelers game, and it was possibly one of the greatest games all year, and then those Steelers immediately looked horrible every single game afterwards.
I had the same thing. I was on like the student radio station when I was at Maryland, which was their last year. I was a senior there last year in the ACC and we went down to Cameron in door and I called a Maryland Duke game and I saw Jabari Parker in person, and I didn't like hate him before then, but I was like, I might be a little overrated, Like I don't totally get it. Then I watched him in person, and I can't wait, thinking
that dude's the number one pick in the draft. He's gonna be the best player at the NBA in two years. That wasn't his fault, but yeah, I know, but like I get it, like the in person, it can it could totally sway you sometimes so quickly PG before I wrap up, do you see any value in like some of these other because these are four really good teams, So do you see value in Houston at plus four hundred Auburn up plus five fifty even or do you think even at even odds, like it's it's just gonna be Duke.
Yeah, I mean there definitely is value, Like if you like one of those teams, I would bet any of them because again, like I don't think anybody other than Duke is gonna win it. Houston would be the only other team that interests me. But yeah, I think because Duke has looked so dominant up to this point, and you have three great teams, Like sometimes we get to the final four and there's like a team that's like like NC State wasn't gonna win it last year. You know,
you see teams going magical final four runs. But then once you get to the final four, it's a different animal. Like getting to the Final four and winning a national championship are two different things. All these teams can win it. So that's what makes this final four so great, which is why I could absolutely see anybody betting any of these four teams. I just personally wouldn't just because I just think Duke's that much better than these teams.
I think I just think they win.
Trell. I'm guessing you would bet Houston plus four hundred or.
Yeah, yeah, I would. I mean I'm sitting on a Houston future. I would double down too, because I think the Purdue game showed me what I needed to see and that at the end of the game, it's a close game. I want Samson in this Houston team. Like, if you tell me, I'm projecting every game to be a close game. I think they're the best close game team left in the tournament and left in the field.
And if you're telling me, I got one possession of win in all four of these teams, and the Martians have the death beam down on the earth, you gotta win this game, I'm thinking Houston.
All right, PJ, What do you got going on at bet QL the rest of the week.
Yeah, we got my show, send it in one to one thirty pm Eastern time, Mondays through Fridays. We're obviously talking Final four. Baseball's back in full swing and got the Masters coming up next week too, So, uh, why talk about what a weekend in San Antonio? You get the Final Four and then they got a PGA Tour event out there as well, so we're breaking down the Valero Texas Open as well.
You can ask Charles Barkley what he think about San Antonio.
Yeah, we all know what Charles thinks. I'm san anton.
We appreciate you coming on. PJA. You bring a ton of March Madness expertise. Savery Year. We love having you. Everybody should check out his show too, Like you said, send it in with beck ql where he's breaking down not only March Madness, but everything else going on. PJ, my friend, thank you so much for coming on our friend. I'll say I know I got called out for that one.
Yeah, that was just really crazy. That's the second time he did that. Like day, PJ and I kn't be friends too, PJ our friend. He's yeah, only one friend, and that's cool. I'm just a I'm a friend apparently all right.
For Fiji and Terrell, I'm Ryan. Thanks everybody for tuning invested luck this weekend with all your final four bets. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com. Slash Betting pros