Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris, joined once again by my esteemed colleague mister Bau mcbrair. You can find me on Twitter at fits underscore ff. You can find bo at bo underscore mcbig time and we are going to preview the Sony Open, the second leg of the two leg Hawaiian Swing for the PGA Tour. We're going to recap the Century from last week, and we're going to give you some of our favorite bets and our one and done picks for
this week. So well, Bo, we have won event in twenty twenty four in the books, and the winner was a guy we weren't really on last week. It was Chris Kirk winning the century with a score of twenty nine under, beating Saheith Thigala by a stroke. And it's funny bout the midpoint of the century, it looked like we were gonna get one of the big guns as a winner. It was Scotti Scheffler leading after two rounds
with Colin Morikawa and Victor Hovlin two shots back. Sung Jay m and Tyro Hatton I believe were just one shot back, but Chris Kirk prevailed deservedly so, and now he rolls into the Sony Open, the second event of the Hawaii Swing, and he's got a pretty intriguing track record at the Sony so could we possibly get a
Hawaii sweep. More on that in a minute, but first, if you want a chance to win a free one year premium Betting Pros subscription, you need to subscribe to the Betting Pro's YouTube channel right now comment below on this video and that is it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on those notifications so that you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize.
All right, bo, let's talk about this event. The Sony Open will once again be playing at Wilea Country Club in Honolulu. It is a parse seventy course and it's pretty short by tour standards, measuring seven four yards. In many ways, it's like the polar opposite of the Plantation course that they played the Sentry on. Capelua has huge fairways and huge greens. Wile AA tight fairways, small greens. So driving accuracy is going to be much more important
this week than it was last week at Capellua. Even though the rough isn't all that penal here at Wilea, approach shots are going to be a little more critical, especially with the short irons, and of course good putting
is going to be rewarded. The forecast for this tournament, calling for temperatures in the low to mid seventies, sounds pretty good right now, since I'm gonna be shoveling six inches of snow tomorrow here in the Chicago suburbs and a slight chance of rain on Thursday afternoon, be a little breezy on Friday. Wins in the sixteen mile per hour range, but for the most part, the weather should be pretty agreeable. So, Bo, were you a fan of Wilea Country Club in this event in general? Is there
anything that stands out to you about the course? Any notes you want to share?
Yeah, So that course is kind of an opposite of the Plantation course for Coppolua in that it's short, it requires different skill sets. At the same time, it's still an island resort course. You're still dealing with a similar field, just an expanded one at that. So there's going to be some overlapping performers here where Kappaalua. A lot of times we overrate driving distance because of how long the course is, and that came to fruition again last week
with Chris Kirk shooting a really low Sunday. He had a great weekend, came through with the win because he made the most putts, and that's what it kind of came down to in at Wilie Country Club, which is a course that had a Nintendo sixty four game. It was completely is the first. It was right along the same time as the Tiger Woods PGA Tour game, and I played a lot of both and it was fun because it was the only one course loaded. There was
only one player you could use. But you got to play Wilie Country Club in its current form too, just with a par seventy two, very demanding off the tee. As far as accuracy, there's going to be no bearing on driving distance on this course whatsoever. A lot of these guys are long enough to where they're actually going to be dialing back and hitting long irons, driving irons fairway metals off the tees just to find the fairway.
Because last year they what they found is that if you increase the length of the rough by three quarters of an inch from two and a quarter inches to three inches. The scoring was down by I think five strokes from the year's previous average. So we're talking about
a course that does have some teeth. It has a little bit more exposure to trade winds than Kapolua does, So this is not going to be your scoring birdie fest like we saw last week when the weather was calm and tranquil and the course was right for the pickings. I do think with an expanded field, this course is going to have a long shot winner, and we have some really nice odds that will expose the books to
bets by people who know who does well here. There's a lot of correlation between guys that have played well in Hawaii in general and also have come here and have played this course before, and if you're of a certain skill set and in this course seems to fit your eye, there's a lot of guys in the history of this tournament that have come back and played well year over year, and that includes our defending champion of the event, which we'll cover in a little bit.
Yeah, this is one of those events where it's horses for courses like you do see some guys repeating, Guys with strong track records tend to do well here again and again. One thing I meant forgot to mention about the course, Bowen, This is to your point about the reduced emphasis on distance. We got some trees on the along the fairways here and some dog legs, So on the dog leg part fours, the placement of your t shots is critical. And like you can get in some trouble into the trees here.
That and they dry out the greens and the fairways. So where we saw a lot of spongy approach landing areas and driving areas at Kapolua, this place is dried out and it's fast. Fairways are fast, and the greens are fast. And that's going to put a more emphasis on the short game. It's going to put more emphasis on target golf like this. This course actually comps a lot to TPC sawgrats in a way where you have to plan your way around the course, a lot more
cappelu as a bomb and gouge type course. This course won't allow for that. So some of those guys that did well last week just because they were muscling the course, that that's not going to work. Here and they're going to struggle.
Yeah, and we've seen although I think you can, we've seen a range of winners here. We've seen guys who hit it long win, but we've also seen the likes of Zach Johnson win here before, like you can be a short hitter, a bunter and win here. And yeah. So this, unlike the Century, is a full field event, and some of the big guns who played at the Century. He decided not to stick around for leg two of the Hawaii Swings, So no Scottie Scheffler, no Victor Hovlin,
no Patrick Cantley, no Colin Morikawa. But a few of the bigger names stuck around, so we'll get to them in a minute. The defending champion here is Seawu Kim.
He beat Hayden Buckley by a shot last year, and if I recall correctly, Seawu chipped in on the par three seventeenth for a birdie and the final day and then hit a really good fairway would out of a bunker, something I've never learned how to do on eighteen to help seal the deal and finishing third last year just three shots back was one mister Chris Kirk, who now comes in hot as the defending champ. So let's look at the odds bow our favorites this week. Ludwig Obert, how do you say it, bo.
It's Albert Yeah, o ar. We always said Aberg until we actually heard him say his own name, and it was Oberg. So that little tiny little loop above the A in the name, which I actually learned to type as I'm writing up these reports. A fantastic young golfer, collegiate champion, one of the best amateur golfers the last quarter century. He's the class of this field as far as the odds are concerned.
Yeah, everyone should know his name soon because he is a world class young player and he's going to be making a lot of noise in the years to come. He is at plus fourteen hundred. I know everyone loves the young Swede, but he is coming off a tie for forty seventh at the century, so he was not exactly on top of his game at Kapalua out of seventy seven there on Saturday.
I was a full faate on him too, So I'm happy to say that if you listen to me, you were you were saying, hey, Ludwig, not only wasn't a good fit for that course, but he was much too short to bet last week.
Yeah, he wasn't really short odds again, a little surprising that he's only plus fourteen hundred. Tyrol Hatton plus sixteen hundred better finish at the Century than mister o'berg he finished. Hatton did fourteenth at the Century. Matthew Fitzpatrick also played well at the Century plus eighteen hundred, and interestingly, the three players with the shortest odds here, Oberg, Hatton and Fitzpatrick all making their debuts at the Sony. None of
them have ever played this event before. Then we've got Brian Harmon and past winner Russell Henley at plus two thousand, Corey Conners, the Canadian ball striker extraordinary at plus twenty five hundred, and Eric Cole is plus twenty eight hundred on DraftKings anyone, you're partial two among the favorites ball So right there.
You mentioned that those top three shortest odds getters are first timers at Sony Open. Well, that doesn't play well here at all. This course is very unique on the PGA tour. You mentioned it's very short by tour standards. It's one of the shortest courses on the RODA. This is going to be a really tough ask for them to come up with the performance that meets those odds. Even if you're just making a top five or top ten bet with those three shortest guys, I wouldn't do it.
I'm starting with Russell Henley and Brian Harmon. Those two guys are extremely accurate off the tee, which is going to be paramount here. On top of that, this is a second shot golf course that requires approach distances with the short and mid irons. They're some of the best ball strikers from those distances on tour overall, regardless of how strong the field is. And on top of that, par four scoring and par four birdie making is going to be paramount this week, and those guys all pop
up in those stat models as the best plays. Russell Henley, Brian Harmon or where I start. Corey Connors checks the boxes from tee to green, but his short game is atrocious. And short game not just putting, but chipping is going to be very important here too, because the greens are very small and the greens are very fast, so it's going to be really hard for a lot of these guys to not just get close to the hole, but
to hit these greens Compared to last week. It's a total juxtaposition of skill set and so Corey Connor's short game demands are going to be tough on him. Eric Cole is one of my favorite golfers to root four, last year's Rookie of the Year. He's got the chops to be there. I want to see his odds slip a little bit farther back, maybe into that thirty to thirty five range. If that happens, I'll be all over him. Yeah.
I thought we might get a better price on coal than this. The odds are a little shorter than I
was hoping for, so I can't quite embrace him. I don't know, boy, I kind of like Fitzpatrick a little bit at plus eighteen hundred, just because I know what you're saying about course familiarity being key, but it feels to me, and I don't know what the statistical correlation is between this event and the RBC heritage, but in some ways this course reminds me a little bit of that course where we saw Fitzpatrick winn last year and has played historically well. He's a world class player, number
eight in the world ranking. It was playing at such a high level in the FedEx Cup playoffs with a couple of top tens there to close out twenty twenty three, and opened in good form at Kapalua. So I'm kind of intrigued by him, wondering if he might be a guy who can sort of defy the historical bias against
first timers in this event. And the other guy like Bo you mentioned Corey Connors, And yes, his putting is not always there and not a very good chipper good around the greens, but he is such a great ball striker, and like, if he can just keep hitting those greens, I think he's got a chance. And I think the small greens sort of favor guy who's as good with his irons as Corey Connors is. And by the way, in his last four appearances at the Sony he has
finished third, twelfth, eleventh, and twelfth. So this course is clearly a good fit for him. Just a matter of whether he can have a good week with the flatstick, right.
Yeah, and he's extremely streaky, as we've known if you've been betting golf for any number of years, Corey Connors will both bless you and burn you. In any given season, You'll go through the trials and tribulations of golf betting just by being a Corey Connors guy. I've gone through six month stretches where I refuse to bet him for
any odds because he burned me so bad. Like we're talking a guy who should win some of these tournaments that line up with his eye more often than he does, and when he does win, it's usually on a course that's more wide open. Despite how good he is Tita Green, he doesn't necessarily do well on places with fast tracks. He's more of your target golf type of guy. But
I do like his course history here. Do I think he's the caliber of golfer that's going to take that next step and defeat that top ten streak that he's got to turn it into a win. I don't know that he's that good, especially for odds less than twenty to one. I don't know if he's that type of golfer, and so I'm more at odds with his odds than I am with the person and the golfer himself, because he's wonted me money before he's lost me money before.
I just don't know that his week to say, hey, I'm Corey Connors in twenty twenty four is going to be my year. I just don't believe in that.
Yeah, twenty five to one for the record ball, but admittedly yes, betting on a guy only to watch him repeatedly miss six footers can be very, very front frustrating. Friends, download the Betting Pros app for iOS and Android. Sink your sports books in less than a minute to automatically track your bets across all sports books in one spot. After sinking, you will enjoy access to detailed bet analytics by sports and by bet type, including game picks, props,
and parlays. You'll also get insights and personalized recommendations for props, game picks, and more tailored to your interests. To enjoy the benefits of sportsbooks SYNC, download the Betting Pros app by visiting Bettingpros dot com, slash apps, or search Betting Pros in the app store. All right, bo I am fascinated by some of the guys in the plus three
thousand and two plus four thousand range. Let's start with Chris Kirk plus three thousand, and he's coming off that win at Capealua, and with his history at this tournament, four top five finishes and thirteen career starts at the Sony Opening a third place finish last year, in a second place finish in twenty twenty one. The funny thing is baul I was going to be interested in betting
Kirk this week anyway. So I was sort of dismayed when he won the sentry and I figured it would just like cause him to be listed as one of the favorites in this event.
Not so.
At plus three thousand, it seems to me like there's still some value here. Would you agree with that?
Yeah, there's value, and I don't expect it to last. So if you're watching this on a Tuesday or Wednesday early, just know that these odds are on a ski slope. It's not going to stay at thirty to one very long. As the sharp. As the sharp betting public gets more involved in this field, we're going to see we're going to see that number come down. Twenty to twenty five would be my target area, twenty five or shorter. I'm
not interested anymore. But if he stays, if he stays at twenty five to thirty, then where all systems go because Chris Kirk loves it here, he loves playing in Hawaii in general, and he has that all around skill set that we're looking for. We're not saying he's great at Kapalua and not great at Wili, even though they are very different courses. He doesn't have many weaknesses. He's
not your master of none, jack of all trades. He's just solid all around the board, and with a guy like that, you can trust him, especially when the odds don't line up with how much success he's had here and how haught he is. Right at this moment, this is a green flag all the way until if he goes shorter than twenty five, then I might be put
off by it. But I'm pleasantly surprised that we have this betting window on Chris Kirk because he pops up in the top five of my model no matter how I scratch it.
I was really expecting plus two thousand to open, and to get him at this price just seems like it's really nice value.
This is why we bet golf is to find find advantages in the lines. Make your own lines before you look at the professional ones. The casinos are going to react to money coming in. That's what their job is to do, is to balance it out where they make their juice. Either way, they're just going to go based on movement of money. There's gonna be a lot of money flowing in on Chris Kirk as the week progresses. So strike while the iron's hot.
Yeah, he doesn't have the big name that some of the other favorites. You know, he's not as well known as Matthew Fitzpatrick or Tyro Hatton, but like this just seems like such a nice setup for him. Also a plus three three thousand, Saheith Thigala, who was in the
Haunts down the Stretch at the Century, JT. Post In plus three thousand, Bijunghun on plus three thousand, Seewu Kim the defending champion plus three thousand, and then we've got Cam Davis at plus thirty five hundred, Justin Rose at plus four thousand, Hideki Matsuyama at plus four thousand, and Harris English, who's played this event pretty well historically plus four thousand. What about the players in this regna? Is there anyone you're partial to?
I really like JT. Poston and see what Kim from what I can see right this moment is at thirty five to one, which is even better as the defending champion of this event somebody who is also one of the most accurate t ball players and gets streaky hot and last year he got really hot. And this is a guy who is just one of those guys that can put together an incredible round in the clutch because
he's not scrambling to find fairways. And that's where I kind of am off of Sahiti Gala because last week we kind of could tell that this is the kind of course that it was going to be. He's a lot like Jordan Speeth. His short game's phenomenal, but he needs a course that has wide fairways for giving off the tee because if he's if he's forced to find fairways, he's not going to do well. That's why he's He's
off the board for me completely on this course. Poston's had great success here been on short game wise, He's a lot like Thegala, where he's a terrible putter and he's also kind of iffy off the tee. I wouldn't bet on him, but seaw Kim having the prior success defending his trophy here. I had him. I had him and the runner up last year bets, so I didn't care who won. It was like I win either way. I had top five bets and overall bets on both of those guys last year at this event. But I'm
off Thigala and ben On. I'm on jt posted in seaw Kim and of course Chris Kirk if the line holds steady enough. Yeah.
Now let's talk about some of the players with odds longer than plus four thousand. One guy who's kind of interesting is Matt Kucher. I mean talk about a horse for a course. Yes, he's getting older and maybe not as big a threat to win as he has been in the past, But in his last eight starts at the Sony dating back to twenty fourteen, he has five top eight finishes, including a win in twenty nineteen.
It's a long way to go back, though.
It is a long way to go back, admittedly, but yeah, the course history is good here. Another guy I kind of find myself drawn to ball for the ball striking is Alex Norn at plus six thousand. He's only played this event once, I believe, finishing thirty second in twenty twenty, but just such a fantastic ball striker. I'm a little intrigued by him at longer odds, Is there anyone you like among the longer or long shots?
So the guy that popped up for me beside Harris English of course to this great history here and then of course you said Nora, and Noorn statistically lines up here. I just don't trust him to win like he's He's one of those stat model guys that always pops up at courses like this, and then at the end of the day you look the standings and he's nowhere near where you expected him to be because of ball striking or whatever. It's like, yeah, we can, we can be
analytical about it, look at the stats. But and we can do all the things from the past. But as it is now, I don't like Matt Kucher because his recent form has been atrocious. I can't stand watching him play right now. He's he's been awful, and that that pays a lot more to credence to what this event is about. Yes, prior history matters, but current form matters
more to me. I wait, that heavier Alex Norn is not a guy I usually bet outright because I don't think he's ever won anything, and at least not in a really long time. And the one guy that popped up for me that has won recently and played extremely well last year, despite or last week, despite not being
necessarily a great fit for Kapalua, it was Akshavatiya. We're talking about a guy who won the Fortnet last year and or no, he won the Barracuda last year and Lake Tahoe on a very very similar course to this, very short, tight, fast, and this is the kind of field where he's at an advantage as an approach player with wedges. He was top ten in the PGA Tour last year as a person who has a great short game and a new putter. He went to the broomstick putter last week and that was where he made the
biggest difference. Was his weakness last year was putting the ball, making the birdies that he was supposed to make after hitting great approach shots. And last week where it was pretty much a putting contest, akshe Batia was rolling him in all day. And I just love his fit for this course in particular, I did not expect his performance from last week. I'm very encouraged by his recent form, and this guy's a phenom. He's up there in talent
with Ludvigelbert. He's just getting a lot less credit for it because he didn't go to college and dominate the collegiate ranks like Obert did. This guy dropped out of high school, didn't go to college at seven team because he wanted to be a pro golfer. That was his lot in life, and he's turning it into a real career. I love this kid, and he's at fifty to one. I just can't get enough of that number right there.
Yeah, Akshay Batia terrific young player, and maybe this is the breakthrough.
Year for him, so that it certainly looks like it.
And bo, I mean, like, take the value while you can get it, because his odds are going to get shorter and shorter as the results start piling up for him. So all right, bo, as of now, what have you got on your betting card for the Sony Open.
Well, I would like to go over a couple of long shots because there's a couple of guys that are really deep in these betting on means. Last year's runner up, which is Hayden Buckley, So Hayden Buckley. The running joke with me last year was that Hayden Buckley, if you took away his Friday scoring average, he was the best scoring average on the PGA Tour, better than John rom better than Scotti Scheffler. His scoring average on Thursday, Saturday
and Sunday he was sixty seven point three. His scoring average on Fridays was seventy three something, so it knocked him down to I think fourteenth overall in scoring average. But he missed some cuts because of his poor Friday performances. But if he made the weekend, he was spectacular. He nearly won last year, but until see who Kim kind of climbed back and pulled one out of a hat.
Hayden Buckley is coming in at one hundred and fifty to one this week, and we're talking about an uber talented golfer who just happens to not be quite there at putting four rounds together. But he put four rounds together last year at this event. His game fits this course like a glove. I think one hundred and fifty one is an insult to the type of golf for Hayden Buckley is. And then Dylan Wu one hundred and
fifty to one as well. He was absolutely amazing last year, one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour last season. Overall, he's getting no respect this week despite how many times he popped up in top twenties of
the leaderboards last year. Regardless, of course, this guy is all around solid and with another year under his belt after last season having a great rookie season, Dylan Wu is a guy that's on my radar this year as as a breakout winner and somebody who can definitely get more respect coming back with a good result this week.
We need to get Rick Flair to endorse some sort of Wu parlay with Dylan Wu and Sea Woo Kim. So I like that, all right, So what do you got, bo, What's on your what's on your card? As of now?
So I have outright bets on Brian Harmon and Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Ox shave Atiya, and then I went quarter unit outright bets with top twenty kickers with Buckley and Wu.
Yeah, I might have to get on your Bettilla and Buckley wagers. You're talking me into those. As of now, I do have bets outrights on Matthew Fitzpatrick, Corey Connors, Chris Kirk, Coocher No sorry not Coocher and Alex Norrin because I figure, like I'm not going to bother betting a top five or top ten with Norn, Like I'm counting on him to just feed lights out with the
ball striking and that's it. In a small bet on Ryan Palmer to win at one hundred and one, like he's got a pretty good history on this course, five top twenties over the last ten years. And then I have let's see a top five on Corey Connors at plus six hundred, a top five on Christian Kirk Chris Kirk, sorry at getting my football my golf mixed up plus six fifty for Chris Kirk to finish top five and
Cooch a top ten bet at plus four fifty. I know the forum has been terrible, so that's like I wanted to cast a wider net with him on a top ten.
Roof for him because he's a good guy. But it's like I think he's he's entering the twilight where I mean, he's old enough now where the Champions Tour is on the horizon, very soon and he's forty eight now, so he's he's very, very live to be one of the best Champions Tour guys for a while in a couple of years. So as far as competing with these guys, I think those days are mostly behind him.
He's a good guy unless here's caddie looking for a big tip after a win. So otherwise he's great. For those of you who are into props, I'll just run two of them by you. I have not bet these yet, but I found these intriguing. A top ten parlay with Saheith Thigala and Corey Connors at plus twenty two hundred. I know your reservations about Figalabo, but with top ten, I'm hoping he can defy maybe some of the course
limitations on him. And B because I can't quit irishman Seamus Power, I'm thinking about betting him at plus twenty eight hundred to finish as the top European in this event.
Wow, that's steep.
It narrows the field a little bet.
I can't put a stamp of approval on that one. He looked awful last week.
He did look awful. And speaking of awful, for our one and done competition. You had Patrick cant Leigh last week finished tied for twelve, good for four hundred and fifty thousand dollars in a field with a rather large purse. And I had Wolf Ricky Fowler, who managed to finish fifty six in a fifty nine man field, good for fifty two thousand dollars, barely enough to pay his caddy and pay for meals in Hawaii.
So I'm going to get a big head about this gigantic lead I have over you after one event. We have a long way to go.
Yes, you do.
You can flip the script just as soon as this week. But I am encouraged that I've got an up substantial, substantial lead on my hands and I didn't burned through anybody elite yet.
So who are you going for this week? Paul?
So this week I am going to go with Russell Henley. That's my one and done.
Okay, Yeah, that was That was one of my two choices. Boy, I'm going with Corey Connors. Like I think Henley was was my optimal, but uh, you know, Connors was a close second. So I'm gonna go with Connors. You know you have reservation.
The show is gonna use Henley. I was gonna use Henley either this week or at Pebble Beach because of the course fits. But I decided it's like Henley is due and he played pretty well, so I think that this is the time and I'm gonna kick myself off. Henley plays poorly this week and wins Pedal Beach, but.
Yes, Pebble and there are a couple he plays some of the Florida courses too, I think has and he'd been pretty good at the Honda, and uh.
He's good at the Windom too in North Carolina, So that one, that one scares me.
Yeah, he's got He's got a couple of tracks that he seems to like quite a bit. So and that Folks is going to do it. For our betting preview of the Sony Open. We will be back next week when the PGA Tour returns to the mainland and Bow's home state of California. And uh, until then, good luck with your bets. We will talk to you again next week.
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