2024 NFL Draft Predictions & Bets Bets: Draft Pick Props, Player Over/Unders & Positional Bets (Ep. 460) - podcast episode cover

2024 NFL Draft Predictions & Bets Bets: Draft Pick Props, Player Over/Unders & Positional Bets (Ep. 460)

Apr 18, 202435 minEp. 455
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

Get ready for the NFL Draft with our comprehensive betting guide featuring our resident draft guru, Thor Nystrom. He and Joe Pisapia cover the most promising prop bets on quarterbacks, wide receivers, and defensive standouts. If you’re betting on positions, picks, or players, this episode provides essential insights to help you make informed bets. Don't place your wagers without listening!

Timestamps:

Introdution - 0:00:00

JJ McCarthy - 0:01:18

1st CB Taken & 1st Defender Taken - 0:02:42

Will the Atlanta Falcons take a defensive player in the 1st round? - 0:05:58

Number of QBs Taken in the 1st Round - 0:08:28

How many WRs will be taken in the 1st round? - 0:11:01

Brock Bowers - 0:14:05

Which WR is Thor lower on than most and when will he get drafted? - 0:17:33

Dallas Turner - 0:21:41

Bo Nix - 0:22:30

Michael Penix - 0:26:16

Ladd McConkey - 0:30:37

Outro - 0:33:45


Helpful Links:

Tune in to our LIVE Draft Coverage! - Joe Pisapia (Host, FantasyPros Football Podcast) is LIVE with Thor Nystrom, Andrew Erickson, Derek Brown, and MANY other guests for the entirety of the first TWO DAYS during the 2024 NFL Draft. Get the reactions to each and every pick, and what they mean for your fantasy teams this upcoming season! Tune in to the FantasyPros YouTube Channel (youtube.com/fantasypros), ask questions, and predict who your favorite team will land. Day 1 coverage begins at 7 PM ET and Day 2 coverage starts at 6 PM ET.

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BettingPros App⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Make winning bets with advice and picks from top sports betting experts. The BettingPros app puts consensus and expert-driven sports betting advice at your fingertips to help you pinpoint the best odds and make winning bets. Download it today on the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠App Store⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ or ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Google Play⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Win a FREE 1-Year Subscription to BettingPros Premium⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Subscribe to the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BettingPros YouTube channel⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and comment below on a video, because when you do... you could win a FREE upgrade to BettingPros Premium. Whether you're looking for access to exclusive picks, top-rated player props, or custom analysis of YOUR betting performance, BettingPros Premium has the tools to help you Cash. More. Bets. Plain and simple. Don't want to wait for the giveaway? Sign up today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.bettingpros.com/upgrade⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and start betting smarter, not harder.

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Get a FREE Trial of BettingPros Premium⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Want to get a free trial of BettingPros Premium? If you've never had BettingPros Premium, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠download the BettingPros app on iOS⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and activate your FREE trial of BettingPros Premium on the upgrade screen. Expert picks, projections, our prop bet analyzer, custom line alerts, and much more for the both the NFL and NBA await! Go and get your FREE trial of BettingPros Premium today. This offer is only available on iOS.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets as me Joey P joe P Zapia and the NFL Draft is just days away. Now. We've been

so excited. We've done so many mock draft shows over on Fantasy Pros and of course don't forget on Fantasy Pros Night one, Night two of the NFL Draft, we will be live join US seven Eastern for the NFL Draft coverage with myself and my guest today, the man, the myth, the legend, the Minnesota mad Man himself, Thor Nystrom, the great draft connoisseur that you are, and he's gonna help us today with some wagers for the NFL Draft. To make sure when you're making your wagers you're using

the Betting Pros app downloaded. If you haven't sink your sports book, and I'm telling you right now, it's gonna help you become a better sports better and Thor there's nobody better when it comes to betting in college sports, whether it be we're talking about the college football combine, we're talking about college in season stuff. But this is the NFL Draft. This is all you live for. This is all you eat, sleep, and drink for the last oh,

I don't know, three months. It feels like so thor we're ready to break down, And I got to tell you right now, we're gonna start here with the breakdown of JJ McCarthy because we've talked a lot about JJ McCarthy, and we've talked a lot about your Minnesota vikings potentially taking him. So let's start with your favorite bets and let's start with the Michigan QB.

Speaker 2

Yeah. So yeah, we'll dive right in.

Speaker 3

It's too bad that they didn't drop slot props back in February when he was seen as a round two pick. But I still think that JJ McCarthy is bettable right now. With where the betting odds are, You go to the betting pros app, look around at the best odds that you can find in the marketplace, shop around which which you can find those on the betting pros app. That the best odds that you can find out there right now live JJ McCarthy to be the number three overall pick.

You can get that at four to one, so that I think there is some meat on the bone there. You want to go a little bit longer shot, but a more conventional bet there JJ McCarthy. His slot prop at under five and a half. You have to pay min but I certainly think that there is value there. There's been smoke around the Patriots slot at number three that they could consider him. There's been rumors of the commander's slot at number two that they could be interested

in JJ. And of course the trade possibilities at four and five as well, those would be in play for JJ McCarthy as well. The vikings are out there, they are out there publicly with their interest in trading up to acquire a quarterback. JJ McCarthy is a fit in Kevin O'Connell's offense obviously as well, so Jada McCarthy. I'm going under that five and a half and I also, to take the long shot, would go the four to one at the number three slot.

Speaker 1

All right, let's get to the next set of bets here for first cornerback taken and first defender taken. You have a strong opinion on this. Let's talk about Quinean Mitchell.

Speaker 3

This is another combo one for me. Quinnyon Mitchell, the first cornerback off the board, that that's the more conventional one. At conventional odds Quinia Mitchell. I'm going to take that one at minus one twenty five juice, but the longer shot one and this is even longer. The longer shot bet, but I like this one at fifteen to one odds. The first defender off the board quin Yon Mitchell. The guy that I am fading for first defender off the board is Dallas Turner, who is the favorite at minus

money against the entire board. We'll see if I'm proven wrong on this. I disagree with that Dallas Turner is my third edge defender on my board.

Speaker 2

I think that there are some holes.

Speaker 3

In his game that maybe the draft media is maybe not acknowledging quite as much in deference for his athletic profile. And furthermore, the you know, the Falcons are the obviously at the very top of the board, it's going to go offense, offense, offense. Here's what we've been talking about this entire time. The Falcons is that first stop where

we start to talk about defense. And it's like sort of in the freeze when people consider that it assuming that the first three receivers are already off the board at that time, where it's been the edge defender invariably Turner, which the betting odds, they generally just go with what the mock drafts out there. They're being informed by that because that's where the betting action goes, and that's how you know it typically goes with these sorts of things.

But Dallas Turner has been the popular one because he has been the top edge on a lot of these boards out there by a lot of my media brethren. I'm not so sure that that Atlanta ends up going edge, and even if they did, you know, who knows. If they end up going Turner, like I said, they might go cornerback. And if they do, like I said, I believe that they would go quinnyon Mitchell. At fifteen to one,

I think those are pretty incredible odds. And also, you know, beyond that, I think a lot too is pretty decent odds there. He has come way way down the market was correct, I think in that he started out. I don't have the odds right in front of me, but he was way way juice. He has come down to like three and a half to one currently. That one

is just a bet on. Did NFL teams get decent news on his medicals at the NFL combine, he is the best edge defender in this class if the team's medical personnels are reasonably confident in the news that they got back on that he was absolutely incredible the past couple of years, and the athletic profile as well, in conjunction with the pass rushing profile which is all over his film, is just absolutely stupid. He is a safer bet than Dallas Turner and certainly is qualitatively several levels

above him. Right now, that would be the other one you could look at, and one other just sort of long shot in this vein I think right now that is gaining a bit of steam light to potentially sniff around at if that's your prerogative, would be Byron Murphy.

Speaker 1

All right, Byron Murphy in there too. So this being you know, you kind of dropped out that the Alatta Falcons would be that team there, would you be also wagering for the Letta Falcons to take a defensive player as well, since obviously that seems to be the way that you're focusing.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean, so this comes down to do you believe that the three wide receivers will be off the board first, because I think you know, there could be a consideration for a potentially you know, of course they did fortify the wide receiver room in the offseason and bringing in cousins. They certainly wanted to do that. I do think their prerogative what would be on the defensive side of the ball. But I think that cornerback is

more in play than people are giving it credit for. Again, it's just been like, oh, the Falcons are going to take in the top edge guy right there.

Speaker 2

I don't think that that is a fixed outcome that people believe it is.

Speaker 1

All right, so maybe it's just safer if you're trying to, you know, just kind of get a better idea of bet wise, would it be just better to bet on the defensive player at a lower odds maybe and just kind of lock that in because it's going to be one of those guys or like let's say, let's say one of those receivers drops down to them somehow do you think that they would still jump into that pool with the knees that they have on defense?

Speaker 3

Well, the other possibility there is a trade down at that point, right Like if you know, for instance, like a guy, if a guy like a Dunes, you just think, suss out this this outcome with me a dunes falls down there, for instance, you are going to be getting a lot.

Speaker 2

Of phone calls while you are on the clock.

Speaker 3

And let's say, indeed that the Falcons have isolated the buckets of edge Rusher and cornerback as the top priorities of immediate help on their roster. If you could just drop down between three to seven spots and and hit that, you might consider that. And by the way, maybe if you could only drop down a couple spots even more still, you might still have the number one, uh your choice of those two buckets, I could tell you for sure.

I know one team that super duper fetishizes Roman Dunes behind closed doors that I've heard is the.

Speaker 2

New York Jets.

Speaker 3

And so if they were in a position to swoop in, if real m duneesay somehow started to fall through the cracks and they had that opportunity to jump up, they would be working the phone lines pretty hard. So those are some things to consider with that. And like I said, with Atlanta, wherever that ends up being cornerback, I think heavier outcome than is being given credit for.

Speaker 2

Right now, all.

Speaker 1

Right, next bet we're going to talk about has to do the quarterbacks. You mentioned it's very day one heavy quarterback class to start the draft. We expect it to go some combination of Caleb Williams and then Jaydeen Daniels and Drake May. We don't know the order of two and three yet. We'll find out the night of the draft. JJ McCarthy, you expect to be in there, but there's a number of the four and a half for the number of quarterbacks to be taken in the first round.

We've done some mocks where bo Nix's knuck in there. I want to get your take on there the number four and a half. You going over or under this?

Speaker 3

We haven't done the mocks or bon Nix is snuck in there where I have made the selection.

Speaker 2

I will have. I will have to believe it to see it.

Speaker 3

I am fading the four and a half number, especially at those juice sides that the market is giving me right now live you can get plus one fifty four on going under the four and a half number. I'm taking that all day. Maybe Penix goes at the end of the first round, or maybe Sean Payton panic drafts Bonicks and Frankly, as a Vikings fan who lived through bounty Gate. The one shot that I had the Vikings fans had in their lifetime to win the Super Bowl

would be hilarious and would give me personal joy. But again, I would have to believe it to see it. Those guys are, in particular Bonis, are not first round caliber players every process, and I know that they have obviously been discussed at nauseum, and you do see them in mock drafts particulicularly elsewhere in the industry, and there's other people that say that they're first rounders and YadA YadA.

But we see this every single process, particularly around this time where it gets very close to the draft, and you'll see respected reporters say, oh, they're they're good. You know they're not gonna fall beneath here. You know this is where this team is super interested. And if they get to this point, you know this team could be interested in trading to the very end of the first round and YadA, YadA. The guy last year who is pennex or Nicks in this scenario was Hendon Hooker. There

is that that guy you know every single year. Could there be a team that makes what, in my opinion, would be an egregious mistake sure. Uh, sometimes that happens. My my Vikings over a decade ago did it with a guy named Christian Ponder. But that's it would be a fireable offense if it, if it happens, and and I would have to believe it to see it. I don't think a front office ends up doing that.

Speaker 2

Uh. And so I'm going to fade that number.

Speaker 3

Particularly if you're gonna give me a little bit better than one and a half to one.

Speaker 1

I gotta say I agree with you one hundred percent of your evaluation there. Let's talk about the wide receivers. There's a lot of them in here. The number is six and a half for the first round. Would you go over or under that number?

Speaker 3

I'm going under that six and a half. I feel pretty good about this one. The number is juiced up there at six and a half because the betting market has been told all process by people like myself that this wide receiver class is awesome, and they have not been misled. That is the truth. This wide receiver class is absolutely nasty. But the thing is that that is

it's at the very top. Of course, with the three megamegastides right there at the top, and then that is also speaking to the depth of it, which is going to have the effect of negating the possibility that there will be seven or more receivers taken in the first round, which is going to push this thing under because you have that three dimensional chess of the decision making of the people on the clock of why are you going to take a you know, uh, Troy Franklin or a

key On Coleman or a Xavier or Lagette or a guy that we're going to talk about in a second that I'm I'm not the biggest fan of, but we'll

get into that in a second. At the end of the first round, Uh, you know a couple other guys that you could toss out there, when instead in round two or even in round three, you can take a dude at that position that can you can project, can immediately come in and start from day one, whereas it and in the slot you're you're picking at at the end of the first round in the in the latter half of day one, you can instead you can go to another position where it drops off quicker and you

can take a dude that that will start immediately in. Because you know, again the three dimensional chesting that's the scenario where you can get two immediate starters as opposed to one that you look around at these other position groups, they drop off a shelf way quicker. Wide receiver is the one where you can get immediate starters way deeper in this draft, so you're not going to reach up for them. It would be another sort of egregious decision.

Even if you can argue that you know, I have seven first round grades on receivers, I wouldn't argue until I was blue in the face against that idea. In theory, it's just when you start stacking the value of the different positions, it's like, okay, some of these other position

groups they fall off a shelf so quickly. And if you're a GM and you're looking over your different position groups and we have you know, three other four other position groups where we have acute needs, you need to address those because if you don't, you will be in a very hairy position later on in the draft.

Speaker 1

It seems like I think the number of people want to bet the over on this store. It feels like they're looking at the board and they're seeing the top three guys. Then they're seeing a lot of teams with need like the Buffalo Bills like the Kansiley Chiefs. You add in two more teams, all of a sudden you're over this number. So I think that's why people are looking so much on the over. But to your point, it's the depth that might allow you to be a

little bit more patient. Now, one guy that plays like a wide receiver but he's actually a tight end is brock Bowers. A lot of discussion where he might go, how early he might go. The number for him is at twelve and a half in terms of draft spot. You want to go over or under that.

Speaker 3

I'm gonna I'm gonna go under the twelve and a half. I just mentioned that Jets. If the Jets are not able to engineer that scenario to get up for Roma Dunze, I do absolutely buy the smoke of brock Bowers. I do not believe that that is like, I think that that is legitimate. And it makes all the sense in the world to me that you know, people, you know, you hear this stuff of like, oh it's a it's a tight end, and and you know, YadA YadA, and

the positional value. You can't really think of brock Bauers as a tight end. And you also cannot conflate him with Kyle Pitts. You know, Kyle Pitts like the downtown, you know, seems stretcher, dude. You know whatever brock Bauers is. You move them all around the formation and you just you manufacture the ball to him shorter on, and you can do all kinds of different things with him. Brock Bawers. So he was only on the Jordia campus for three years.

All three years he led the team in receiving. The team only lost two games those three seasons. They won the national title twice. Both rosters were replete with NFL receivers when he stepped onto campus. That team had George Pickens, they had Ady Mitchell, they had Lad McConkey. That they were stacked. Brock Bawers was the number one receiver on that team that won a national title. As a true freshman, he brock Bowers was a First team All American three times.

He was a John McKie Award winner two times. And it's not only that, folks. Kirby Smart, who is as straight laced as they come, not known for hyperbole, said that if Jorda had shifted brock Bowers to running back.

Speaker 1

He would have been that he would have been their best one, right, he would.

Speaker 3

Have been their their best running back. And you you think like, oh, well, that's that's clearly absurd. You know, brock Bauers is six three two forty five. There's no way that that could have been the case. But when he carried the ball, you know, because there was times where they sort of used him as like the Deebo Samuel of tight ends, and in some high leverage spots, you know, they would do like end rounds r at the goal line.

Speaker 1

They would do some fun stuff mh.

Speaker 3

Average like over ten yards of carry. So you can do crazy unconventional things with him. You can't think of him as a tight end. He's just the guy that he's. He's a yardage getter and and and it's like, well, sure is he undersize for a tight end, but he's not a tight end. He is elephantine for his athletic profile for a yardage getter, and.

Speaker 2

That's what he is.

Speaker 3

You just move around the formation, and when you do it, the defense has to tip their intentions to you.

Speaker 2

That's what he is.

Speaker 3

You line them up outside, line him up in the slot, line him up, you know in line line him up. You can line him up in the backfield as a single back if you want. A couple of snaps a game, just to confuse the heck out of the defense, Like he's the dude for the offensive coordinator where he just screws around with the defensive coordinator on the other side.

It's like a game where he is just frustrating the other dude the entire time, and then Bowers is just doing damage the entire time, as he did from day one for the most dominant collegiate program we had over the last three years.

Speaker 1

All Right, you teas this earlier, so I'm gonna let you kind of take it from here. There was a wide receiver that you are lower on than consensus. Let's talk about him and how we can make money off of it in the NFL draft and wager.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so we we'll have to apologize that the viewing audience first, that the show wasn't four days ago or you know, immediately when the slot props came out, because let's just say that the sports books made a mistake this guy that the betting market and my sharks out there immediately made them pay for with the biggest of hammers. Just a wave of money came in Ady Mitchell his slot. You don't see movement like this in in slot props.

This quickly opened at sixteen and a half. Within a couple of days, he had been met up to twenty seven and a half, which is where he sits now talking about the Texas receiver at twenty seven and a half now, so has moved over ten slots up from the open again and only a matter of a couple of days. Even at twenty seven and a half. That is where we currently sit as we talk to you guys now at minus one twenty odds. That is the advice I'm going to give you guys again present odds.

I'm still going over that number Ady Mitchell on my draft board is wide receiver thirteen. I see him as around three perspect.

Speaker 1

How three even wow?

Speaker 2

He and of.

Speaker 3

Course Ady Mitchell is going to go higher than that in the NFL, higher than round three in the in the NFL draft.

Speaker 2

Not a fan of his game.

Speaker 3

Obviously, he is a loafer on concepts that go the other way. He does not change directions very well. His one special sauce of that downtown speed obviously, that is why people were a fan of him during the pre draft process six two two oh five with the four to three wheels, and then he had the great rasby because of that different stuff.

Speaker 2

But it's build up speed.

Speaker 3

His tenure split was equivalent to several guys in this class that ran in the low to mid four fives. So he needs a runway in front of him to get to. Once he has that that runway in front of him, that's when down the field he starts running faster than anybody, but he needs that runway. His collegiate receiving production, it was entirely built off of games where he would have two to three explosive plays the rest

of that. That's why you saw it last year on this Texas team that had a really good passing offense, it was like eight nine games he had less than thirty receiving yards because he's the Dave Kingman of receiving prospects where you either get a home run or you get a strikeout.

Speaker 2

That baseball illusion was you.

Speaker 1

Hey, not the baseball reference. I appreciate you all, how many of the audience did, But Dave Kingman, go look it up, big slugger. All or nothing would be the way to describe.

Speaker 3

It, all or nothing, that is what you get from him. And then the other utility that for an NFL team is that the opposing defense you're going to have to keep too high safeties because you do have to respect his ability to pop the top. But I see him as more of like a DJ Shark type where the prototypical wide receiver two. I absolutely do not see the

upside that some other analysts out there have depicted. You certainly did not see it the past couple of years in college during his collegiate career when he had the opportunity. I brought them up before he was there on campus with Brock Bauers. That was a team that was certainly trying to win and was winning. They they were in they won the national championship. We're winning the national championship twice.

They they were going to other dudes, and then Adie Mitchell obviously went to Texas and they were going to other dudes. He did hit some dingers, and he only hit some diners in the NFL, but you will be going elsewhere for your efficiency. I still think that Adie Mitchell is going to fall into the top of the second round. That that's where I think he ends up going. That Typically, that's where you see the pop the top dudes go.

Speaker 2

That's where I.

Speaker 3

Think Adie Mitchell is, and that's that's where I think he ends up going in the NFL draft.

Speaker 1

All right, we got a few picks left here for the NFL draft. Best bets here, let's talk about Turner over and a half nine excuse me, over nine and a half. That is where you are next? Why is that?

Speaker 3

Yeah, you know we brought up Dallas Turner before, and my supposition that Atlanta is not settled that away. And obviously, you know, people know from the mock drafts and everything like that during the entire process all the offensive guys that are going to go at the top.

Speaker 2

Of the board.

Speaker 3

So this is right around here is where the first defender is going to go. That is why the sports books have set Dallas Turner's over under sloat prop at nine and a half. I'm fading Dallas Turner, as I mentioned before, So I'm going over that that nine and a half. I'm perfectly comfortable laying the minus one twenty juice on that.

Speaker 1

All right, we talked about Boon Nicks earlier, so you and I agree he should not go in the first round. Doesn't mean he won't go in the first round, but we're talking about where he might land. The number right now that it's set for him is thirty five and a half. That's the pick number. Do you want to go over or under that one for bon Nicks?

Speaker 3

Yeah, certainly going over the Bonnicks one. You know mentioned was going under the four and a half quarterbacks in the first round. With with bon Nicks, I wish we could do the what's it called when you ch and the modified line that you can do at college foot by you change it so then you get the juice shots. I wish I could do that with the draft slot props and then push it back and then get an enormous juice on it the other way.

Speaker 1

Alternate line, so to speak, line for thank you. Well yeah, yeah, you know, I don't know why there isn't more of that that might you know what, as we get closer to draft day, you might see some specials pop up or some abilities to do that on certain spots. So keep an eye.

Speaker 2

I hope we get more more prospects as well.

Speaker 1

Yeah, there's a ton of like, there's a ton up here here for like the last you know, forty eight hours or so, things pop up and then a lot of specials pop up to so you know, stay keen to that, you know, keep your eyes and ears open for all of that. Use the Betting Pros app. But also, you know, make sure your follows on social media too, because we'll be you know, trying to get all that information out to people as much as we can. But again, bo Nicks, you know, numbers at thirty five and a half.

That's reasonable, but you got to look at the teams that are looking for quarterback around that range too.

Speaker 3

Yeah, you know, and there's been in the connection between you know, for instance, Bonix and Sean Payton and desperation as a stinky colone. And certainly the Broncos are desperate with their their quarterback situation. I certainly get that, but the Broncos also are capped out and they have very

little draft equity. And as I mentioned before, it would be egregious just looking at Bonickx's the film for sure, but even looking just at the traditional profile of a prospect like this, the elevated age, the struggles he had earlier in his career, and the way in which he

accrued those counting stats. If you look into that, if you look at where the yardage was coming from, and you look at where the accuracy got juiced up cough cough, look at the percentage of passes that came behind the line of scrimmage and within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, you'll see And look at the percentage of the yards that came from yak yardage from the guys that he was throwing to you, you'll start to see, and then again from a prospect quarterback prospect at the

elevated age, and then when you start you look at

the film, you start to see some other things. It appears that the Oregon offensive system was working around some of the more unsavory aspects of Bonix's game that we saw at Auburn that I think will crop up in the NFL if system is not tailored around that in the same way, which will also have the effect of taking away any explosive element whatsoever from the offense that he would be playing in at the next level, which would also have the effect of making of neutering that offense.

You would absolutely not have a contender that's not the guy that goes in the first round. It's also not a guy that goes in the top half of the second definitely would definitely be fading that and visa vive the Broncos that scenario, assuming it's not just this enormous panic.

Whatever you trade down, try to the smart thing you would trade down, Try to accruise some draft equity which you currently do not have, to try to plug some more holes on that that roster that's decimated, that needs it, that you don't have cap room to otherwise fill those holes, and then add, you know, and get some cheap roster cogs because you know again like that, you know, fill out some of that draftic we you don't have and and you know you don't have the cap space augment that.

Speaker 1

Yeah, makes a lot of sense to me. Michael Pennix, so far in every mock draft we've done thor he has ended up with the Raiders at forty four. Now the over under him is at thirty two and a half. That seems like a lock for the over.

Speaker 2

Now I'm going over on that as well.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean, what what what Obviously the thirty two and a half is just nodding to what they're saying is Michael Penix.

Speaker 1

That's what they're saying exactly, and he is.

Speaker 3

Yeah, and and Penix, you know, pendix for me is is slightly different than than Bonix. On my board, Michael or Bonix is a third rounder. I do think Knicks ends up maybe in the second round somewhere. Penix, I think, by the talent could go early second round. The first round.

Speaker 2

Thing would would.

Speaker 3

Still surprise me because there's in the profile. There's multiple different things that I think are going to scare teams when they are on the clock or in the past couple of months when they have been discussing this. The obvious one that people talk about is the four straight season ending injuries. When Michael Penix was at Indiana. He did Michael Penix then did not run at Washington like

out of the pocket I'm talking about. But then when he went to the pre draft process, he tested as the great athlete and then which then people were like, oh, you know, he's a good athlete, and he of course has the really good arm. So then you saw his stock starting to go up a little bit.

Speaker 2

Again.

Speaker 3

The thing that people need to keep in mind though, is there is a reason that he never left the pocket at Washington. It's not because he had a dippy coaching staff. In fact, he had one of the best play callers that we have had in college football the last thirty years, and it was the guy who shepherded him initially at Indiana, Klein de Boor. When Michael Penix came out of high school as the will threat guy.

When Indiana he was running around. You know that there was that play against penn State when they upset them during the COVID season. He reached over the goal line they you know, and scored and you know, all that sort of stuff. The reason why is because when Michael Pennix was doing all that running around stuff early on at Indiana, that's when he was getting injured. And my theory is that Kaylin de Boer told Michael Penix when he went to followed him to Washington, Michael, we need

you in the pocket. You can't be leaving anymore because if you get injured, it's going to be very bad for our team.

Speaker 2

We need you staying healthy.

Speaker 3

And then the one other thing with Michael Pennix's game, you can see this in the statistics.

Speaker 2

You can also see it on the film that the.

Speaker 3

More his feet, the more he's pushed off his spot, the more his feet are moving, the more his accuracy begins to appreciate. It's something like ten percent drops off his accuracy percentage if his feet are even shuffling whatsoever, and it's more like fifteen to twenty when he is outright scrambling. So it's you have those two different things. So the whole point being that athleticism, I'm not sure that that is a thing that is usable in the.

Speaker 2

NFL if you want to keep him healthy.

Speaker 1

No, but footwork's certainly something teachable you can work on. That's for sure. You can't make a guy more athletic, but he could certainly teach him better footwork, especially in circumstances of the NFL where he's going to need that because the pass rush is going to be very ferocious.

Speaker 3

There is but Joe, I will say, his mechanics, so there is a lot of upper body motion in his throwing motion, and he Pennis's arm talent. Oh it's awesome, like the ball like it just shoots out of his hand like that part of it is unimpeachable about his saying.

But he is an extremely unorthodox thrower where it is mostly upper body, and what he does with the lower body, it's like I think of it like a sniper, where it's like he keeps it like set, but he doesn't use the lower body as much, you know, as far as rocking back and stepping in.

Speaker 2

He just likes to keep the feet totally set.

Speaker 3

And like I said, when it's moving, it off it has the effect of depreciating the accuracy with all that unrepeatable upper body wonky motion that he has. You see it like the placement can be off because that upper body motion is non repeatable and all the funk in it, And so that's what you see with that. I'm not sure how much of that is workable. If it was over his six years on campus, I think Calen Debor would have solved that puzzle by now.

Speaker 1

Perhaps we shall see. Hopefully wherever he lands they maybe can get the best out of him. Last as Lad Maconkie, a guy's been just going up draft boards constantly lately, so he's been flying up all over the place. That number for him is up to thirty four and a half. You want to go over or under this as again, the buzz continues to be strong with this one.

Speaker 3

Yeah, you know, I mentioned that I'm raiding the six and a half receiver number. Lad mcconkeye, though, is the one receiver, especially at this thirty four and a half. You get a little get a couple more bullets on the you get the first couple of slots of the second round on it. I'm gonna go under this one. I love Lad mcconkee. Lad mcconkee. I might be the

highest dude in the industry on Lad McConkey. Lad mcconkeye is my wide receiver for Wow, huge fan of Ladd mcconkee's game, and I absolutely could see a team like I don't know if how much connection is out there on this. This is just a conviction of mine. I think you'd be a perfect fit for the Buffalo Bills. You know, you don't typically think of Ladi mcconkee as a dude that would be an analogous one to one replacement fit for a step On Diggs.

Speaker 2

I think he would be perfect for that. Ladd mcconk.

Speaker 3

People do not give Lad mcconkee credit for this guy could absolutely be a long term outside starting receiver in the NFL. I believe he certainly was on those dominant Georgia teams. I was just talking about played almost eighty percent of his snaps in college on the two national title teams on the outside. That was a twelve personnel offense. And he gets separation at will almost better than anyone in this class. He is so natural at it. He

was so good at it. In fact, when deebro and I and our buddy Mayor were down in Mobile at the Senior Ball the first day, Lad McConkie was destroying defensive backs so bad and one on one drills it evoked Tank Dell for the year before in the one on one drills where they were holding Tank Dell out of the route breaks. And then the next day people were, you know, were holding Tank Dell after he destroyed them. On the Tuesday with Lad McConkie, they just started playing

off them. No one wanted to get close to him. They were just seating the early. We'll give you the freebe completion and then we'll just sort of mind tackle you after that because they were getting embarrassed by him. That's how easy LADDI McConkie separates from. I mean, if you hit him on the hands, he is going to get a little bit of yak garage free after that

as well. He would be a guy for that Buffalo receiving core after the Digs trade and whatever that badly needs fortification right now, he would so greatly help that out. So just one example of a team that potentially could go there. But even at the top of the second caroline, obviously you know it had traded for Deontay Johnson, someone who very much in this vein.

Speaker 2

They are looking for guys that get.

Speaker 1

Patriots are looking for a guy too.

Speaker 2

Certainly, there's a.

Speaker 1

Few teams right at the very top of that second round. So I'm with you on this one.

Speaker 3

You're looking at teams that are sitting dead red on a guy exactly like Lad McConkie. And if people out there don't think that they're talking about exactly like a guy like this, a guy that gets open more than seven to eleven, your kidding yourself.

Speaker 1

Mary, You have it, everybody. Hopefully all of these bets hit. And of course, if you want to bet smart or not harder, download the Betting pros app and don't forget to join us for our live coverage of the NFL Draft right here on Fantasy pros our main site again, we will be live to Fantasy Pros if you haven't already, and of course set that notifications, ring that beltill it goes ding. So you are joining us live for Night

one and night two of the NFL Draft. Four will be there, I will be there, All of our rowdy friends will be there. We want you to be there too, and don't forget to subscribe to Betting Pros as well as we continue to break down the best bets you could possibly make in the NFL Draft. And check out Thor's big board which is going to be available for you over on Betting Pros as well.

Speaker 4

That'll do it for us. Five hundred player comms. That's hit God, you're just so lazy these days. Go check out at Bettingpros dot com. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Thor Nis drum Mom, Joey P. We'll see you next time.

Speaker 2

Kids.

Speaker 1

Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com Slash Betting Pros s

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android