2022 NFL Schedule Release Breakdown, Team Predictions & NFL Win Totals (Ep. 171) - podcast episode cover

2022 NFL Schedule Release Breakdown, Team Predictions & NFL Win Totals (Ep. 171)

May 17, 202234 minEp. 171
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Episode description

Thomas Viola is joined by Jeff Parles to talk about the NFL schedule release, break down some team win totals, and talk about the best strategies for team win total betting!


Timestamps:

Introduction - 0:00:00

Knowing the Schedule - 0:01:00

How to bet Win Totals: - 0:02:00

New York Jets Win Totals - 0:08:30

Kansas City Chiefs Win Totals - 0:14:00

San Francisco 49ers Win Total -  0:19:30

Green Bay Packers Win Total - 0:23:20

Cincinnati Bengals Win Total - 0:29:50

In-Season Adjusted Totals - 0:31:00

Closing Arguments - 0:33:00

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm Thomas Yola and joining me today to talk about the NFL schedule release. We're gonna be discussing some win totals here now that we have the full picture.

Speaker 2

Jeff Parls, Jeff, how are you doing good?

Speaker 3

Tom.

Speaker 4

It's a pleasure is always to be with you, buddy.

Speaker 2

It's a pleasure to have you back on.

Speaker 1

And like I said, in the NFL schedule it is out. We know every game now. We know the Lions will not be on primetime, we know that the Jets will have an amazing Thursday night showdown with the Jaguars, and we know there are a couple other games nobody cares about, like the Buccaneers versus the Bills and the Chiefs playing you know the game's no one's gonna want to watch the low action games.

Speaker 4

Hey man.

Speaker 3

We've known the opponents since the season ended. But it's good to know the sequence now, Tom, And I know we'll get into this, but I know people scoff at the schedule Liso. It's yeah, so it's ridiculous, but you know what perspective, you kind of actually need to know the sequence of events here because it does impact the way at least I bet season win totals if I'm gonna bet them, and quite frankly bending some playoff bets as well for some teams.

Speaker 1

I completely agree you can know the opponents. But the thing that most betters need to understand when you're gonna bet season win totals is it's not just looking at the team's number and going that's an eleven win team. That's a twelve win team. They can clear nine and a half wins easy. It is going through the schedule, breaking it down, saying okay, well this is where their bye week is. This is a really rough road stretch right here, this is a London game. Things like that

come into play. You have to go through the schedule. In the way that we'd like to properly break it down is literally going game by game and saying this is a win, this is a loss. I think they win this game, and picking it out and finding out how you arrive at your number through that. The way I like to set it up is literally going through the schedule. Before I even look at a team's number, I want to know what my number for that team is, and then compare it to the book. Yeah.

Speaker 3

Look, I usually go through everything, and usually if I end up with a team, usually the number that I look for Tom is.

Speaker 4

One and a half win difference.

Speaker 3

If there is a one and a half win difference either way, then I look to bet it. If it's more than one and a half from what the market says to what I go through this.

Speaker 4

I'll probably do this three.

Speaker 3

Times before the season starts and go off my final one because the final one is the closest one to the season, and I know those win totals change, but injuries happen, and the last thing I want is to have a horrible.

Speaker 4

Position on a team.

Speaker 3

Or let's say, like again, I'm not betting this, but let's say hypothetically, you want the Chiefs over this year, and we'll get to them in a second.

Speaker 4

Patrick Mahomes gets hurt.

Speaker 3

But the way that schedule is the Chiefs may win five games, but if Mahomes is there, Homes is probably worth four or five wins.

Speaker 4

And I know the chief.

Speaker 3

Schedules is horrendous in the way of the difficulty there, Tom, So I would.

Speaker 4

Be looking up.

Speaker 3

I would just be going through the whole thing trying to find at least a win and a half difference from what you think to the book.

Speaker 4

If you get two to two and a half, great go ahead.

Speaker 3

I usually the biggest advantage I can remember was the Lions back in twenty nineteen.

Speaker 4

They were six and a half plus money under. I had them winning.

Speaker 3

Three, and that was like a quadruple bet for me and the Detroit Lions. In twenty nineteen, Tom.

Speaker 4

We're not good. No, we're not good.

Speaker 3

They were three twelve and one. So again I didn't have them with a tie, but.

Speaker 4

It was an easy under.

Speaker 3

It was as easy of an under as you're gonna have all the year. So I think that's just what you do. You go through the whole thing, you go through all the games. If you're a first instinct guy, and go with that, fine whatever. I usually i'll do one. I'll do one in about a week. I'm gonna let the dust settle here and go from there. Like a week.

Speaker 4

From when we're recording this, I'll have my first version of.

Speaker 3

This and then by I want to say, the end of the second week in the preseason, because a lot of the teams won't play their guys in that third preseason game.

Speaker 4

Now I'll be looking to do the the second.

Speaker 3

And final one, and then if I inevitably get bored in the summer when it's only baseball, I'll probably throw one of those other ones and see how it changes through the off season.

Speaker 4

But I very rarely change more than like a win or two across the board.

Speaker 3

If by accidentally have like a team going like, oh in seventeen, like no team's going oh in seventeen in this age in the NFL, Like it's not gonna happen. No one's probably going seventeen to no either for that regard.

So like let's say hypothetically ahead and I don't have them with this just on the early look at it, Like hypothetically, let's say I had the Lions going oh in seventeen, like I would go back and change two games to make sure you get them two wins like no teams if the Texans last year were able to win multiple games, and teams are not, teams are not going in this new age with the extra game and teams like not officially taking weeks off.

Speaker 4

But we saw it last year. We saw as soon as Mike.

Speaker 3

White beat the Bengals on Halloween, everything went nuts, like we're none of upset. So you're gonna say, I think that's your more common on common day NFL. At this point, you're gonna have teams that with the extra game, like out, this team sucks, we don't either a game.

Speaker 4

Why don't we just take it a little bit easier. We'll still win.

Speaker 3

And then all of a sudden, the Texans are beating the Chargers and the Titans on the road that Mike White's thrown for four hundred yards against a team that inevitably makes the Super Bowl.

Speaker 4

Like, uh, like you think gets some wild stuff this year, Tom.

Speaker 3

So it's a little bit harder day in the past, But look, it's the NFL.

Speaker 4

Man.

Speaker 3

If you have a win and a half to win advantage based off of what you think, and again it's hard to find that you probably go you still go with it, even with the day and age of a little bit more a little more wonky results once you hit mid seas.

Speaker 1

Yeah, the NFL today is it is just the parody is so strong. Even with Yes, there's obviously a huge gap between the Jaguars and the Chiefs. Of course, any team can still go out on any week and beat any other team. It truly is the any given Sunday sport. These are all professionals. The variance is so great that being said, win totals can be a good way to make a nice little future investment off that. And we've already talked about how you're gonna go about breaking the

schedule down. We'll get into a couple specific teams here. This is just some preliminary looks. Obviously, in your case, you're thinking the best time to bet these is going to be right before the season starts, when you have a good picture of what the market is looking like and what these teams are going to look like. You know what the preseason injuries are gonna be Like.

Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah, Tom, that's the way I do it. Everyone has their own rhyme or reason. I like, if someone thinks they have in a vanda, let's take the let's just start.

Speaker 4

I know we're gonna bring up the Jets. Why don't we we stay there top.

Speaker 2

Yeah, let's get into them.

Speaker 3

Because the Jet win totals five and a half at most places with heavy juice on the over, and inevitably I think they will.

Speaker 4

Hit a six.

Speaker 3

So, like, there are some teams where if you want the over or if you want to basically beat the market to the punch and then come back on a plus number or a better number or hell of it gets six and a half fine an all six and a half all seven betting under try to get the

Jets to land six or seven wins. I don't have a problem with that, And there are some other teams, like if you didn't bet the Eagles to go over to win totally, you're already betting into a market that's not as good if you like that over right now, that was eight and a half the whole time, nine and a half this morning on DraftKings and the Jews is on the over, which I actually think is correct.

I think the Eagles are probably a ten win team this year if they were able to get close to that last year with with a team that I didn't think was any good. But there are plenty of ways to bet this time, and I just go my way and find your style, find your correct style, and also get chop around. That's the biggest thing is everything to to shop around, make sure get the best number on things.

Speaker 1

And the best way that you can shop around and get that best number, head on over to bettingpros dot com.

Speaker 4

The I see what I did there.

Speaker 2

Yes, you've got you have to have the plug in there.

Speaker 1

Seriously, while prepping this show, the first place I went was right to our own website because they have not just odds to win Division, super Bowl, all of that forever NFL team. They've got the win totals and they've got them all broken out. You can see at every shop. That's how I know, like you said, the Jets are going to get to six. They're already at six at bet Rivers right now. I think the market is going to go in that direction. You're right, there's still five

and a half juiced at DraftKings. I see them going into the six. But let's get into the Jets. They're the first team I have up on my notes. I'll tell you looking at the schedule, those first nine games are brutal. You start off playing the entire AFC North. That's the first four games, and then you have a week ten by I think that they're only going to have about three wins heading into that buy. I think the Steelers are beatable, I think the Browns are beatable,

and I think the Dolphins are beatable. But you look at the rest of that schedule, and it is ugly, Jeff, and it doesn't get a whole lot better. On the other side, you have Week twelve versus the Bears. That's got potential depending on how the Bears start the season out a lot of unknowns, their new coaching staff, obviously second year quarterback.

Speaker 2

In Justin Fields.

Speaker 1

Then you've got Week fifteen in Detroit versus Detroit, Week sixteen versus Jacksonville. That's a big back to back right there, and Week seventeen at Seattle. They've got a long week there after the Jags game Thursday night. But I don't think that they can string three wins together in that stretch like that, which tells me that they're probably gonna go under that six. I'm kind of like fit hitting our own team here.

Speaker 3

I will probably if I can get a five and a half that's a little better than minus one forty juice, that probably still go over. They're vastly improved from what they were a year ago.

Speaker 4

And look they're starting Tom.

Speaker 3

It's been the interminable rebuild at this point, it just has been. But they are much better, like they are much better than they were a year ago, and they look Tom an absurd blown lead at the end against Tampa, where if Wilson doesn't do the ridiculous hold the ball for no reason do to QB sneak on four to two and a half, the Jets probably win that game. The opportunities to be Carolina and they had opportunities to

be to Atlanta. Like, again, I'm mentioning two crappy teams in there, but look, I expect.

Speaker 4

Them to be better.

Speaker 3

And five and a half is a very low total, Like you're expecting them to be a bottom five team. Basically if they go under that, I don't think they're a bottom five team. I think they're probably closer to being team the bottom ten, bottom twelve. But look tom the schedule, and this was the sequencing we knew going in the Jets schedule was going to look pretty brutal.

Speaker 4

The sequencing socks for them.

Speaker 3

They played all the AFC North, which may be the most competitive division in the NFL. I know the AFC West still exists, but the AFC North could be very competitive because those teams are all to me closely bunched together, where you can have everyone.

Speaker 4

Ending up nine and eight, ten and seven.

Speaker 3

Not as sparkly of records as I think the teams out west will be but it will be a very competitive division and Jets play all four of those teams right away.

Speaker 4

They have to go to Lambeau.

Speaker 3

I don't think that's as intimidating as it would be in the past.

Speaker 4

But you're not going to pick the Jets to win a game in green Bay.

Speaker 3

I mean, even with green Bay coming off the London game. But Tom, I think you those first nine because the week ten by week Yeah, they can beat Baltimore. I'm not saying they will be I would not bet that at all, but they can beat Baltimore. They can beat any of those AFC North teams. They can beat Miami. They're not winning at green Bay. Theer not winning at Denver. They always play horrible Denver, regardless of what the Broncos are. I mean, hell, even Brett Rippon beat them a few

years ago. But to me, if the Jets are gonna go over, you gotta get the divisional home games.

Speaker 4

The Jets have been brutal in the division for years now. And if you beat Miami and New England at home, with the way.

Speaker 3

That the rest of your schedule goes out, and the Jets do catch a break that Jacksonville is a home game, a game that if it was on the road, they might lose. If at home on a cold December night, maybe in front of a thirty five thousand people met life, I actually like the jets chances there.

Speaker 4

Getting Detroit at home is a big deal, and they.

Speaker 3

If you go to ford Field this year, I actually think the Jets probably would lose that game on the road this year, but at home, I actually like them at home in Chicago, I think the Bears are gonna be terrible.

Speaker 4

I think the Bear would be one of.

Speaker 3

The three worst teams in the league, so you got to get all those games where the Jets are either comparable or better than those teams. I still like this over time. I think they're going to find a way to scratch out seven. I think they'll be competitive. I think we'll actually look the part of a seven and ten team, which is good enough to get us over five and a half six. So I'll have to go through it in full, but I think they're gonna be

good enough. Due Leies get to that bye week at three and six, and if you get to that bye week at three and six, you're probably going over because three and five on the three and five on the back end with that week's schedule actually to me seem like.

Speaker 4

A little bit of a disappointment.

Speaker 1

I agree, And you know, the last four weeks of the season are always the Jets super Bowl. It's meaninglessly this playoff time to start trying. Look, I've got you all over my shoulder here. You know that I want to see this. If this team wins seven or eight games, I as a fan will be thrilled because it will mean that we're trending in the right direction. And Zach Wilson might actually look the part. But we could do an entire hour talking just about the Jets.

Speaker 4

Here.

Speaker 1

Let's move on and shift from one of the worst teams in the league to a team that everybody always has is one of the best, and that is Kansas City. Their total is at ten and a half right now. Part of me likes the over, but I am honestly with you, this schedule is pretty brutal. I think the forty nine ers are bad. I think that it's pretty nice that they get Arizona without Hopkins to start the season and you get to play the Rams and Bills

at home, which is big. But oh, there are a lot of good teams on this schedule, and I think this is a Chiefs team that is going to take a step back. I'd be inclined to take them under that win total. I think that they're going to have a very hard.

Speaker 2

Time without Tyreek Hill.

Speaker 4

I disagree with you on the Niners.

Speaker 3

I actually think the Niners will be fine even with that confusing quarterback situation, unless of Lance, Unless of Lance is the guy in Lance just totally sucks, which could happen.

Speaker 2

We'll talk about the Niners in a moment here a little bit.

Speaker 3

But Tom, the Chiefs are the first team in the league history to have the first eight games of the season against teams that finished over five hundred the following year. Yeah, our previous year, I should say, first team in the history of the league to do that. And look top this is even even with like you look at this schedule. They'll beat Jacksonville, they'll beat Houston, they'll beat Seattle. Other than that, this schedule, you could make an argument that

they could win or lose every game. Now, it's odd to say that again about a Patrick Mahomes team, And of course, the Chiefs are not gonna go three and fourteen, Like, that's not gonna happen. Could you imagine even too good Andy Reid is too good of a coach to allow that to happen. And they will be favored, Tom realistically, even with that insane stretch to begin the season. My guess is that they will be favored in more than half of those eight games against the teams that finished.

Speaker 4

Over five hundred. They'll be favored probably in five or six of those games. They'll be a dog.

Speaker 3

At Tampa, and depending on what the Buffalo Bills and forty nine ers look like at the times they play those teams, they will probably either be a slight home dog to Buffalo or a slight home favorite against Buffalo. Same deal in San Francisco. Of the nine are good, so Tom, it's just hard to go over ten and

a half. You're asking a team to win eleven games in the most competitive division in the league, in a division that I think all four teams have a realistic shot to make the playoffs, and you're gonna be fighting at the beginning of the year like we saw last year looked ugly at the beginning of the year for them with Tyreek Hill there.

Speaker 4

Now you haven't you don't have your deep threat anymore.

Speaker 3

Teams are going to try to take Travis Kelcey out of the game as much as humanly possible, And for me, I thought they got lucky getting Arizona week one. I don't think the Cardinals are particularly good even if they had Hoppins and the road game in Week three, Indianapolis like it's a winnable game, even though it's a tough road game, it's a winnable road game. And I think there.

I think ten and a half's probably about right. I would only lean to the under because it's hard to go over ten and a half with that type of schedule, but it will be no bet for me. I like the Chargers to win that division. I really do. And if the Chargers win Week two in that first Amazon game, then I think it's a whole different mix. But again, Chargers had the freaking division on the rocket last year. Your managed to blow that game and somehow missed the playoffs.

So I again, it's still Kansas City's.

Speaker 4

Division to lose.

Speaker 3

And look, when you have all these teams that are really good and they beat the crap out of each other, who knows, maybe we get something weird into the AGC West the whole division ends at ten and seven or something like that.

Speaker 2

I entirely possible.

Speaker 1

I think that this is going to be an absolutely wild ride in the division, which everybody thinks, but I just I have a hard time.

Speaker 2

I have a hard time taking the over. I'm with you.

Speaker 1

The good news is, I think the public is going to take the over. I think if we wait long enough, we can see this to get up to eleven, maybe eleven and a half if we really believe, and then you could take an under because let's face it, Travis Kelsey's not getting any younger. Juju Smith Schuster is there now, but that's still not He and Marquez the Scantling are not replacements for Tyreek Hill. This offense is going to

have a harder time than it's used to. I think things could be very surprising for us on the Chiefs front.

Speaker 2

I'm with you.

Speaker 1

If I can get them a little higher, I'd like to take me under there. Guys, I want to talk to you for a minute about Sleeper. It's the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players, and it's a game changing product unlike anything else.

Speaker 2

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Speaker 1

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See Sleeper's Terms of use for details. Now let's shift over to the forty nine ers, because their total is at ten games on DraftKings minus one ten each way. Right now, I'm going under all the way. I see this team ceiling at eight waves. I think they got very lucky last year to get as far as they did. They have no answer at QB. Jimmy g is not good. He is trash. They don't want him. Problem is nobody else wants him and they want to turn to Trey Land at some point, except for the fact that Kyle

Shanahan probably doesn't want to. They have an easy early road schedule. Yeah, the Bears, the Panthers, and the Falcons are all very winnable road games. But the home schedule Miami and Washington winnable. But Chiefs, Bucks and Chargers are tough home opponents, throwing a QB controversy, and hey, a tough New Year's Day road game in Vegas again. I don't see this team getting more than eight wins on the schedule.

Speaker 4

It's funny.

Speaker 3

I go through it quickly, and I think I see ten. I think the numbers right. I think the numbers spot on, and it really the Niners are going to be the hardest team the handicap the going into the season for sure, because even though I know you don't like Jimmy Garoppolo. I know people don't like Jimmy Garoppolo, But Jimmy, you're going to win games with him in the regular season though, if he's healthy. That's always been what he's been with

Shanahan in San Francisco. When Garoppolo has been healthy, they've won. Now, has it looked pretty No? Not sometimes it has. Most of the time it has it, But he wins games when Kyle Shannan is his head coach. Now, the big question is there's a reason that Garoppolo is still on his roster, and I think it's more than oh, they haven't gotten the proper offer that they wanted for him. I don't think they buy Trey Lance still. I don't

think they think he's ready. And if it ends up being Trey Lance before this team, I can't bet this at all period. I lean under if it's Lance because he again, we saw him twice last year they ran the freaking air force wing tee against Arizona the first go around and then the game against Houston. He was horrible in the first half, played well in the second, and I don't know, I just I don't see again. Could he be end up being really good. Of course you take a guy like that at number three because

of the high ceiling. The problem is the floor is low with him, as we kind of saw on those two starts. So I'm not betting San Francisco. I think that the hardest team to handicap because their ceiling is very high, kind of high Lance. Their ceiling is very high. If Trey Lance starts and ends up being really good and their ceiling is really low, if he ends up stinking, and we're gonna kind of know right away because those first two games this year.

Speaker 4

At Chicago, they are almost a touchdown road favorite in that game.

Speaker 3

In the opening numbers in week one, you don't see that very often. Yeah, we have two of those games this year, and in Week two they play Seattle at home in Seattle. Is not any going on bad If Trey Lance looks bad at those two games, that is a very bad sign for what San Francisco is.

Speaker 4

Gonna be this year.

Speaker 3

If he looks good, then the Niners are gonna be a playoff team again. I think Ten's right, Tom. I think it's unbettable right now because of the unknown factor in last.

Speaker 1

I think that's fair. I'm just not high on this team either way. That being said, obviously, wait and see what's gonna happen to start this season. Well, as we get closer and start the preseason, see where they're venturing at quarterback. I think Trey Lance is probably gonna get the starting gig week one, simply because of how easy the opening schedule is. They're gonna want to get him out there for the easy games rather than having Jimmy g soak up some of those and then maybe make

it even harder to go to Lance. I see that as how the game theory is going to play out here with this team. But we'll see as the preseason rolls closer. The next team I want to talk to you about here the Green Bay Packers. Sure this is gonna be a tough one this year for them. Eleven and a half at Fox bet ten and a half at Fandal. Again, you can find all of these numbers quick to compare bettingpros dot com odds. They opened at Minnesota, and I think that's an l to start off the season.

They don't play everyone in the preseason. We know that they don't like to do that, and we saw what that Russ did to them last year versus the Saints when they got walloped in Week one. But I think with no Adams, this team takes a step back on offense.

Playing the Giants in London is definitely helped by a second bye week versus the Jets, but I think they drop at least one in that stretch of New York, New York and Washington, and while the schedule is favorable, I just don't see them getting to twelve.

Speaker 4

They should have been Washington last year.

Speaker 3

I mean, if you remember that game, freaking Heineke kept they Washington kept getting in the red zone and not score and that was probably the worst beat of the entire NFL season, getting getting over a touchdown in that game and still not getting there on Washington.

Speaker 4

Look, I think Green Bay is hard for me.

Speaker 3

I don't I don't know what to do with them because we know Aaron Rodgers is great, but now their number one receivers animals are like at some point not having Devonte Adams, and I know they have played well with Adams out in the past. At some point him not being there has to hurt. And I don't know, well Christian Watson turned into a legitimate number one wide receiver right away.

Speaker 4

Who knows.

Speaker 3

I will say this is the best defense on paper. Green Bay is a on aut in a while, so that does help it.

Speaker 4

I like them week one.

Speaker 3

I think Minnesota's gonna be a big bust again, even though the one thing I will say, having O'Connell there as the head coach instead of Zimmer, We're gonna see how bad Mike Zimmer really was, or if it just was that it had just run his course with Zimmer and he's actually still a good coach, but it just he just ran his course for being there as long as he was.

Speaker 4

But look, they get they get Tampa week three. They've been horrible in this era since Brady's gotten there. Against the Bucks, they lost both of those games.

Speaker 3

But I will say this schedule kind of is conducive to win a lot of games, like they'll lose at Buffalo, probably on a Sunday night the.

Speaker 4

Week in Halloween.

Speaker 3

I think they'll go three and oh in that stretch that includes the one London game. Like they usually beat up on bad teams in the Rogers era, they usually don't lose the teams they shouldn't lose too. They'll lose the good teams, but they won't blow the games, like they're not gonna lose the Chicago Week two but you're not gonna happen.

Speaker 4

So I think that number is right.

Speaker 3

I'm not gonna bet it though, just because and again I hate giving you.

Speaker 4

I'm not betting this.

Speaker 3

But green Bay and San Francisco are probably the two most complex NFC teams going into the year because like Dallas, like all right, their schedule, they play six games against teams we know they're better then, even though I know people like Philly this year, Dallas is still more talented than philm and they played the first place schedule, so they they have to play green Bay.

Speaker 4

They have to play well, they get.

Speaker 3

Green Bay because of the NFCS, but they have to play the Buccaneers. They have to play the Rams. They get the the they get they get the Bengals on the flip for the extra AFC game.

Speaker 4

Now, like, all right, you get a sense like Dallas may be talented, but that schedule is pretty difficult outside of the division, and you know what they are.

Speaker 3

You know what the Cowboys are with Mike McCarthy. They're very talented and very horribly coached. But with Green Bay, like with Green Bay in San Francisco, San Francisco, again, when you don't know the quarterback situation, it's tough. And with Green Bay we are talking about a very different situation than what we are accustomed to with that team. So again, again I hate saying like, oh I don't

like this all like that. But here's the other thing though, Tom and I gotta bring this up because of the reason of having two bets, the two teams that don't like a bet on. There are ways to bet this through the season, but there are there are adjusted win totals, and San Francisco maybe a good one to possibly hop on what happens if they win the first two games and looked royally unimpressive and that win total hopped to eleven and a half twelve probably, And we saw this with.

Speaker 4

Denver last year.

Speaker 3

Denver because they won against the Giants on the road is a favoritem went up two whole wins at one and oh after week one, and they had the next two weeks the Great Jaguars and Jets back to back to two teams they're supposed to beat, and that win total went up to ten and a half based off of beating three bad teams. And what happened with Denver, they went way the hell under the ten and a half.

So there are opportunities. Just pay attention, Like if San Francisco looks unimpressive and two wins against two teams they're supposed to to beat, maybe you come back with it with adjusted under with Green Bay, you know what, there there might even be a case.

Speaker 4

To go over for them in the season, Like.

Speaker 3

If Aaron Rodgers, like, oh, you know what, DeVante as great as Devanta Adams was, Aaron Rodgers is still the best talented quarterback we've ever seen, and the Packers offense looks really good, So like there are ways to bet this end. Same with our Jets, Like at some point, like if the Jets start one to nine and an adjusted win total goes down to two and a half, guess well, We're.

Speaker 4

Gonna bet that over.

Speaker 3

Ye'd have been it over because the Jets will win, probably because Tom there's no franchise that's done a better job of ruining the draft pick better than the New York Jets.

Speaker 4

Oh you like, Yeah, of course they'll win.

Speaker 3

Three of their last five games to fall from pick number two to pick number six. Like I mean, there are plenty of ways to bet this, and that's Look, that's the good thing with being in this post paths of War world where you can you can bet these continuously and the books that put these up credit them.

Speaker 4

We have more opportunities.

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

So download today. In the Apple or Google play stores.

Speaker 1

Jeff, I want to ask you about one more team before I let you go here, and that is the Super Bowl runner ups, the Bengals. The number around ten and a half right now, And I know you have thoughts on this team. I thought that they overachieved a little bit getting to the super Bowl in what I thought was going to be a decent year for them. I thought they were a playoff possibility, and of course they blew out all expectations many in as far as they did this year, I expected them to take more

of that step to being a legit contender. What do you think is gonna happen? Are they going to regress with that Super Bowl loss hangover? Or do you think that they should be right there in the conversation again.

Speaker 3

Again, I'll go back to what we said earlier about the AFC North. That's gonna be an extraordinarily competitive division.

Speaker 4

Because all those teams. I know, Look, I know Pittsburgh has as low of win total as they've ever had.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it doesn't matter.

Speaker 3

They've they've sucked two of the last three years, and they were in the play in the playoffs last year with a bad team, and they went five hundred with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph playing quarterback in twenty nineteen. It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter what they aren't growing the win games.

Speaker 1

Uh.

Speaker 4

And for the Bengals this, I'm actually going to go back to what I said before. What I just said.

Speaker 3

They're a great team to monitor through the year to figure out an in season win total bet.

Speaker 4

Because they're schedule.

Speaker 3

They own the Steelers last year, they destroyed them twice. They get them week one. Now, we saw last year Pittsburgh somehow won in Buffalo Week one. Maybe Pittsburgh has another trick up their sleeve early in the season with Trubisky. I don't think that would be the case. They played Dallas League two, tough game, but winnable, and Cincinnati after that gets the Jets of the Dolphins on a short week at home, they get Atlanta, they get Carolina like

they get a bunch of winnable games. But the back end of that schedule is very difficult. After the bye, Top got Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland at Tampa, at New England, Buffalo, Baltimore. That schedule is brutal. Though after the bye week, which is Week number ten. That is a team that if the cracks start to show a little bit, maybe you say, oh wow, all right, Cincinnati got out seven and two

or something like that. Pre boy, that would be a very high wind total to get over in just a in season.

Speaker 4

They're a team with.

Speaker 3

That back end schedule being much tougher than the beginning. Like if Cincinnati gets through seven and two to beginning of the year, it probably look to come back under because they probably go five hundred on the back end, go eleven and six.

Speaker 4

That feels about right that.

Speaker 3

In season win justin winter, it will probably be eleven and a half twelve at that point if they're not, if they are well above water at.

Speaker 4

The bye week at week ten toimes.

Speaker 3

So that's the one I've been pinpointing the most actually for in season wagering Bengals get out to a big start, come back with an under in season. If Joe Burrow's every bit as good as everyone thinks, though maybe I'm out of luck.

Speaker 4

But if Joe Burrow beats me and goes thirteen and four, so be it.

Speaker 1

There you go, Jeff, thank you so much for joining me today. Really appreciate the time. Where can people find you and the work you're doing.

Speaker 3

Yeah at Jeff Parls on the tweets, v SIN place to watch me, Numbers Game with Gil Alexander, and other programs on the weekend schedule changing on the time.

Speaker 1

Tom, Jeff again, thank you so much for your time today. Best of luck with the entire season. I'm sure I'll be talking to you again real soon. As a matter of fact, I'm sure we'll be sharing a beer or two.

Speaker 4

Without worried about that, Tom, I would say so.

Speaker 1

Tom, all right, have a good one and guys, best of luck this week. You can find me on Twitter, at TV, at work, and don't forget hand on over to bettingpros dot com. We've got everything you need to get ready for the NFL season. It's a long summer of prep and we're excited for it. Have a good one, everybody,

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