Hey there everyone, Welcome back to a very special edition of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris AD. In case you missed it, the Super Bowl is over. The twenty nineteen season is officially closed, which means it is time to take an early look at the futures for the twenty twenty season. Now, look, the twenty twenty season is a long way from now. We just got
past the biggest gambling event of the year. So you know, when you try to move on from something like you want to cut down on coffee and you don't go from three cups a day to zero, you wean yourself off, right, So super Bowl's over. Rather than doing nothing for months, you can wean yourself off the gambling high that you got when the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards hit. There's a giant event on Sunday one that a ton of people in America will be watching and you can
wager on it. It's called the Oscars. So first we're going to take a look at some future for the twenty twenty NFL season with Ian McMillan, a writer over at Odds shark dot Com. And then we're going to bring in a special guest and noted oscar expert Kerry Kerpin, the CEO of Likable Media, to break down some of the odds on the major Academy awards. Let's get started here with Ian, who you can find over on Twitter
at Ian macOS. That's I, Ai, n Ian. Did you have the over or the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards in the Super Bowl, Because it seems like everyone in America had a piece of that bet.
No, I did not take that.
One of my coworkers, though, Joe Osborn, a odd shark, had the over on it, so he was pretty heart broken with how that prop ended.
I'll be honest, I had the under, and I just I had thrown it out. I think it was at forty three in the over under. I think I had it at thirty and a half or something. That's not a bet that happens. That is the worst beat I've ever seen in any capacity for any bet. If you had the over on it, I will say that I read that points bet to their credit. I think basically refunded the money for over under, so that's good. I don't know if for the people who took the overs.
I don't know if everybody else did that, but it's really the worst beat of all time for any sports. I've never seen anything like that.
Yeah, that's terror.
He didn't even take normal knees like he took extra yards that if he just took normal like the one or two yard kneel downs, then course of.
Course he had a seven yard kneel down. I've never seen that before, and I get it running to kill some time off the clock. But still, man, as someone who had bet the under, I was not disappointed, but still I certainly felt bad for the large majority of people who had the over, because again, that was that was not only a very highly bet prop, but it was also something where the vast majority of money came in on the over. So that's a tough beat. But again,
we move on. So let's talk about ways to make up for it. Let's talk about some futures. At this point, there aren't any books as far as I can tell, with divisional winners, so let's just break down the conference and Super Bowl futures. All right, let's start with the AFC winner. I'm just gonna list out the consensus odds for you and our listeners, and then you can talk about your favorites. Okay, Now, not surprisingly, the Chiefs, the Super Bowl winners, are the favorites next year to win
the AFC. It's not a big price, it's merely plus three hundred. Then you've got the Ravens close behind at plus four hundred, little bit of a drop to the Patriots at plus seven hundred, a little bit of another drop to the Titans and the Steelers at plus ten
to fifty, and then you're really going downhill. The Browns and Texans at plus fifteen hundred, the Bills at plus sixteen hundred, the Colts at plus eighteen hundred, the Chargers, the Raiders and the Broncos at plus twenty two hundred, the Jets at plus three thousand, the Jaguars at plus thirty five hundred, followed by the poor little Bengals and Dolphins at plus forty five hundred. So what do you think?
Do we push all our chips in on the Raiders at plus twenty two hundred, hope that Tom Brady lands there or what's the play here?
No? I don't think so.
I mean, I think the NFC is going to be a lot more of an interesting conversation because I think the AFC is just so top heavy. I mean, obviously a million different things can happen between now and Week one of the twenty twenty season with the draft, free.
Agency, who knows what kind of trades might get done.
But I mean I think it's it's got to be the Chief so that that are going to dominate the AFC again. Even the Chiefs regular season, I thought they didn't have a great regular season. I think they're probably gonna have a better regular season next year. The Ravens at plus four hundred, I don't really like them because I mean, they were kind of a team that just exploded over nowhere. They're obviously the best regular season team, but I'm not confident enough that they're gonna be able
to repeat that amazing performance they had this year. So as boring and as square of a bet it might be, I think really the only bet to make in this situation would be the chief at plus three hundred. I mean, the only other name that I would even interest me a little bit would maybe be the Bills at plus sixteen hundred if they can get a couple extra pieces.
And Josh Allen has a good season next year.
But I don't really see anyone else given to the Chiefs a run for the money unless we see the Ravens have another great year like they did last year.
Yeah, the Bills stuck out to me just because the price, you know, plus sixteen hundred, those are fairly good odds. You saw Josh Allen take another step in his second year. The play calling was really creative. If they can add a few more offensive skill players with that defense, they could be a scared team. But you know, don't you think a lot? First of all, are you just assuming that Tom Brady returns to the Patriots? By the way, is that how you're analyzing everything?
Yes, I am, because there's even there's even a book that's offering odds on whether or not Tom Brady's going back to the Patriots. I think he's like minus two hundred to go back to the Patriots.
So yeah, most.
Likely, especially with that Super Bowl that weird Super Bowl commercial announcement that he kind of have made. So I think he's going to be back on the Patriots.
Yeh, Yeah, I despise that, you know, the the early Instagram post, you know, to make everybody think about it. But again, Jets fan living in New England, I won't harp on it, so it's tough. Well, let me ad something. If he is coming back, why not the Pats at plus seven hundred, I mean they had nothing this year whatsoever. Their receiving corps was decimated. You have to assume if he's going to come back there, he's going to do it based on the guarantee that they're going to give
him a lot more help on offense. So what about them? Any value on them at plus seven hundred? Then if Brady is coming back, I.
Mean, if you think that the Patriots are going to get weapons this offseason, then getting them at plus seven hundred wouldn't be a bad bet now, because if they do get weapons, their odds will probably, you know, go up. One of the big names that I've kind of seen around a little bit is Greg Olsen. He's knock gonna be with the Panthers anymore. So, I mean they could use a tight end. There's one weapon right there that would seem like a pretty easy fit into the Patriots scheme.
So I mean, yeah, if if you want.
I mean, I absolutely despise the Patriots, so I would never bet on them to win, to win the Super Bowl, or to win the AFC.
But plus seven hundred.
If they do get the weapons, then now would probably be a good time to bet on them. But I mean that's a big if if they are going to get the weapons that tom Brady's asking for, and then even if he does, we saw tom Brady take a little bit of a step back this year. Was that an anomaly because he didn't have the weapons or was he showing his age a little bit? So's there's some question marks with the Patriots that would make me hesitant to bet on them.
At this point in time.
Well, well, let me tell you something that I think you're doing life completely wrong. Okay, because I too, as I talk about, often despise the Patriots. Just again, Jets fan living in New England married into a Patriots fan. It has been my nightmare for several years. So I always throw a little bit of money on them to both win the AFC and the Super Bowl, just because I'm like, if I'm going to be miserable, at least
I need to profit off it a little bit. So the fact that you hate them really shouldn't impact that. The second point that I'll make with them. Is that to me? I really think at this point that Brady he does have leverage at this point, and I think it's very much gonna be I am not returning unless you give me the weapons, and I think they will
give him the weapons. So I think if you're assuming Brady returns, I really do think it's based on the promise that they're going to give him somebody to come back to. Let me throw a couple of other names out here, okay, and let me just see what you think of these. Yep, what about the Browns. I know this was a disaster. Of course, this whole year basically was blue up in smoke. But you know they're at plus fifteen hundred. Stefanski comes in. He's gonna help that offense. Obviously,
it couldn't get any worse than it was. They'll have a healthy old El Beckham junior, who you know, you assume he's gonna stay. They've got a top ten pick, They've got a boatload of cap space. I mean, everybody was pretty excited about them coming into the air. I think they're over under on wins. Might have been nine
and a half. Obviously a disaster, but they do have a lot of talented pieces with the new coaching staff, with Beckham healthy, any chance you think that you can find some value on the Browns at plus fifteen.
Hundred, I mean, I don't think so.
I think I would have to see the Browns play next season before I put any kind of bet on them. It really does come down to how good of a coaching job the new guy will do. I don't think that that was a great hire by them. I think so Law would have been a much better choice, but they wanted to get this guy right after that divisional round game, So I think it really does come down
to him. And with the guys that they have on the Browns team, it's hard to coach them because if things start falling apart.
We saw this this past season.
If things start falling apart a little tiny bit, they just they implode. And so because of that reason, I can't trust the Browns at all. If they get off to a good start and you see a little bit of momentum and like as if they were playing like a team, then maybe it's a team you want to take a shot on after the first couple of weeks. But I need to see something from them before I could place any kind of futures bet from them.
Yeah.
I think the one thing that really does not change from this past year is that they have a group of personalities where things go south, it's gonna go south. And I believe it was Adam Burke who was on and he's a Browns fan. We talked about it in the preseason last year about how he was not on them. You know, they were the most bad team I believe to win the Super Bowl, them and the Bears, and he was not on them just because you could see them getting off to a rough start and then things
going completely south and it unfolded exactly that way. So I get everything you're saying. I'm gonna be really interested to see how this offseason unfolds for them, because I admit that I'm a little optimistic just given how bad everything went last year, and Baker Mayfield's much better core and he showed and I do think he can bounce back.
But let's talk about one other team here for the AFC, because they also caught my eye just a little bit given their odds, which is at plus eighteen hundred, and that's the Colts. You know. The one thing with the Colts. Is you know, they played pretty well early on last year, they eventually fell apart. T Y Hilton was dealing with an injury. Jacoby Brissett not the answer. He was able to fill in in what is pretty much an elite offensive system because he had been with them now at
that point for long enough. He was preparing for it, so he was ready to come in, and so they were able to get by. But you know, they've got nearly ninety million dollars in cap space. There are a bunch of quarterbacks kind of going around. Maybe Brady I know he's going to probably go back to the Patriots, but he's certainly out there. Even Philip Rivers, who I realized took a downturn there at the end and certainly did not play particularly well through the second half of
the season. Maybe Jameis Winston. There's there are people out there who they might be able to add, who could be more competent than Brissett. And they have, again the elite system. Overall, they're a very talented team, a great offensive line. So do you think that there's any chance that they could provide some value at plus eighteen hundred?
Yeah?
Sure, I don't hate the value there on the Colts. The Colts are second on the odds list of land Philip Rivers. I think that would be very interesting, especially with the receiving corp that the Colts have with t Y Hilton Paris Campbell, the Colts rookie receiver this past season. He was hurt almost the whole year two. I think a lot of people are forgetting about him. He's a very talented player. I'd be excited to see how he
does last or next year once he's healthy. So yeah, plus eighteen hundred with kind of I mean, there's no real number three, number four team in the AFC that could be the Colts that could slide into that spot next year if they get a couple of pieces in the offseason, So sure, plus eighteen hundred.
Yeah. I don't hate those odds at all.
And I think the one thing I'll say about that is if you like it like I do, and ETON sort of does, this would probably be the time to bet it, because if they get an upgraded quarterback, I don't see their odds getting longer from where they are now. There's really no reason for that unless they don't make a move at quarterback and somehow per set sustains you know, a tough injury, then they're really gat no shot there.
But at this point, frankly, given you know where they are a strong team, if they get a quarterback, the odds are going to get you know, much shorter. So if you do like them, I think i'd make a move. Now, all right, I think we talked enough here about the AFC, So let's go on to the NFC, which you described as much more interesting. So that'll be good, so he
can lead us there. Forty nine ers, not surprisingly off their Super Bowl appearance are the Favorites at plus five hundred, Saints at plus six hundred, Eagles at plus eight hundred, Packers at plus eight fifty, the Seahawks, Vikings and Cowboys all at plus nine fifty, the Rams at plus one thousand and fifty, Falcons of Bears at plus sixteen hundred, the Bucks at plus twenty two hundred, the Panthers, Giants, Lions, Cardinals all at plus three thousand. Bringing up the rear
are the Redskins at plus forty five hundred. So unlike the AFC kind of how you alluded to, you've got a lot lot of teams here, whose odds are not that long necessarily to win. So what do you think what's sticking out to you in terms of value here?
I might sound bias here. Actually I'm probably definitely gonna sound bias. So maybe you can talk some actual logic endo me here, because I do this every single offseason with my Atlanta Falcons. But they after the bye week this past season. Don't forget, they ended the season very strong. I think there are six and two after the bye week, including a win over the Super Bowl San.
Francisco forty nine ers. They beat them there late in the season.
So sixteen to one, I mean, I wasn't a huge fan of them bringing dan Quinn back to completely, to be completely honest, that does worry me a little bit. But I mean Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, I mean, they've got a young secondary. They need to add a pass rusher for sure, in the draft or in free agency or a trade or something. They definitely need a pass rusher. But sixteen to one, I mean, like I said, they had a great end of the season. So maybe
this is me being a huge Falcons fan. My bias might be showing. So I'm interested to hear your thoughts, but that would be the number that sticks out to me the most out all these teams.
Okay, first of all, let me ask you, how are you a Falcons fan? Because I can hear in your voice you must be from Canada.
Right, Yeah, so I'm Canadian.
So so we don't really have any kind of allegiance because we don't have any teams. So, if I'm being one hundred percent completely honest, when I first started watching football, the way I got into it was I bought like Madden two thousand and five or something, and it was the first year of Superstar Mode, and I created a player and I was like, well, I have no allegiance to any team. Whatever team my player gets drafted to, that's gonna be my favorite team for the rest of
my life. And the player got drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. So I have been in a Falcons fan ever since. I mean, I needed some reason to pick a team, so I figured that was as good of a reason as ever.
That's an outstanding story, and I love it. And you've stuck with them no matter what. Obviously they've they you know, they haven't always been winners, so it's been good to stick with them. Look, I you maybe you'll be disappointed by this, maybe you'll be happy, but I'm not going
to talk you out of it. I had a couple of teams on my list that I kind of looked at as being like, you know, it's not that I necessarily am going to go in thinking like, yeah, I really think this team is going to win the NFC next year, but it's certainly something where I looked at the odds and I thought that had value. Absolutely. The Falcons were one of the teams on the list. They
played so well down the stretch. Again, I was one of, you know, the many people calling for dan Quinn to be fired in the middle of the season because the team looked dead in the water. They stuck with him. They didn't fire him. The team played very, very well
down the stretch. As you mentioned the defense, it's always injured, right, I mean, they need help on defense generally, But if they can just stay healthy one year and come together with the receivers with Hooper emerging, yeah, I completely like it. I definitely that was one of my picks. So plus sixteen hundred, I think that's one that we both, like anybody else here that you're finding value because I have a couple of names that I'll throw out there which
are more long shots. But you know, I'm wondering whether or not you have any other teams that you like value other than the Falcons, which I agree is one of my favorites.
Yeah, the other team that sticking out to me is probably the Rams plus a little over plus one thousand there. I mean the Rams there were they were in a Super Bowl two years ago. I mean, I don't know if Jared Goff is the answer. He did not have a great year, but the Rams lost a lot of close games this season. They were pretty competitive in just about every single game that they played.
And I mean that is a.
Very tough division obviously that they're in with the Seahawks and the forty nine ers and the Young Cardinals as well, so that, I mean, that's arguably the best division in football.
So it's going to be hard to win that division.
But as far as the odds go, I mean, I think the Rams hold a little bit of value too.
Yeah, I could see that. My big thing with them is they just they're so hamstrung by the cap, right, I mean, you know, golf steal it's going to be so hard for them to really kind of, you know, boost up the offensive line, which they definitely need to do, because that's really the difference in how GoF plays when he is protected versus not is really striking. I kind of like the Seahawks a little more, which is around the same adds at plus nine to fifty there, just
because I do think it's talk right now. But that's all we have is talk is Russell Wilson basically being like, you have to open up this offense. You need to for sure, because it was the same thing every single game. They run, run, run, Brian Schottenheimer wants to run NonStop, and then if they fell behind or if Wilson was able to just basically have the reins taken off, then
he did some great things. So I think if they're able to, you know, add a few pieces, if they can hold on to Clowney, if they can add a few pieces, if they changed their offensive philosophy their team, that could certainly, in my mind, have some value at plus nine to fifty. But I actually want to talk about two real long shots, one of which you're just gonna dismiss out right. I'm wondering about the other one. The other one is the Bucks. You've obviously got this
quarterback situation that's unclear. It might be James Winston, it might be Philip Rivers. He packed up his whole team and moved him down to Florida. You know, the offensive system worked, that wasn't the issue. The issue on offense was the fact that Jamis Winston turned the ball over eight thousand times and it was just difficult to overcome that.
But the defense is really the thing here because quietly over the second half of the season, sort of like the Falcons, the defense, which was abysmal at the start the past defense really turn things around over the second half of the season. If they can build on that, and if they can kind of whoever is going to be a quarterback find a way to limit the turnovers. They still have the elite receivers. Ronald Jones, you know, kind of emerging. He looked better down the stretch. They
are a team that I think could threaten. That's particularly the part of me. That's particularly the case if Drew Brees retires, which I think is really in play here. He may not, but if he does, you know, they're in a tough division. Anyway, because you know, we've talked about the Falcons, of course, but the Buck struck me plus twenty two hundred, those are pretty long odds. With another year in AARAN system. They strike me as a team that could have some value there.
Yeah, I don't hate that pick at all. Yeah.
I mean, like like you said, it comes down to James Winston. I mean, if they keep Jameis Winston, if he's going to be their guy next year, I mean, if if you look at his numbers, you just take away the interceptions he was at an MVP caliber.
Seas and the fumbles and the fumbles of course forget about that.
Well, yes, but you take it so you take away his turnovers, like the rest of his numbers are almost MVP calibers. So I don't know, because this has kind of been the story of James Winston year after year since has been in the league as the turnover So I don't know if he can cut those out right, But if he does, I mean watch out for the Bucks shore twenty two to one.
Yeah, yeah again, And for me, it's really much more about the defense, you know, because again in the beginning of the season, they were terrible, and they really really pulled it together as a season went on. The other one, I kind of like, again, this one. I mean, it's it's it's one of the longest odds, But could be the Cardinals. You know, You've got obviously Larry Fitzgerald back, if all the receivers get a little bit healthy, You've got Kyler Murray maybe taking a second you know, maybe
a giant leap in his second year. They've got a high pick in the draft. So if they can add to that defense, that's a team that I could see. Like, you know, you get everyone's wanting to get the teams. I mean the forty nine er, you get a team that kind of you're just like, oh, well, they're not very good, and then suddenly they come back the next year and you're like, whoa, where did this come from? I could see if the Cardinals have a bang up offseason,
they could do that. If Murray again takes that giant leap in a second year. But that's a plus three. That's the only reason why I take that. So I assume that's one that even that those odds are probably like not, man, where we're far away from that?
Yeah, I know, I'm staying away from that, I mean, this is probably not a very popular opinion, But I'm not a huge Kyler Murray believer. I'm not a huge fan of his. I wasn't when he when he was in college coming into the NFL. The big thing about quarterbacks who can run the ball is whether or not they use their feet to buy more time to find guys downfield, or if they use their feet to more
look for a place to run with the ball. And I find when Kyler Murray he looks back and he sees his first read, and if his first read isn't open, it it's like he shifts his glance down to right in front of him to see if he can find a place to run with the ball instead of guys Like we saw Lamar Jackson. Yes he did run with the ball quite a bit, but he also used his feet to buy more time in the backfield. And that's what Patrick Mahomes is really good at with his athletic ability.
So if Kyler Murray can kind of use his athleticism to more buy more time instead of finding a place to run, then I'd start to like Kyler Murray a little bit.
But I wasn't.
I wasn't a huge fan of him this year, but I mean, he was a rookie, so he obviously still has a lot to a lot of time to develop, a lot of time to get used to the system that Cliff Kingsbury offense. So yeah, I'm not ready to buy stock and the Cardinals to quite yet though.
No, I think it's fair. Of course, Again, their odds are pretty long for me. Again, it's mostly about on predicated on Murray taking a giant leap into his next year. All right, let's turn to the Super Bowl.
Here.
We've got thirty two teams, so I'm not going to list all their odds because that will take forever. You can assume essentially that the odds are roughly double what they were for winning either the AFC or the NFC. So, for example, the Chiefs were the favorite for the AFC at plus three hundred there plus six hundred for the Super Bowl. The Niners were plus five hundred for the NFC there plus one thousand for the Super Bowl. The
Redskins are plus ten thousand for the longest odds. I mean, you want specifics, we can talk about them, but you know, in essentially doubling the numbers, is there any value here or is it really just essentially what we talked about with the conference winners.
I mean, obviously a lot of it is the stuff that we talked about in the Conference winners, But I mean I think the Chiefs to hold value plus six hundred. I expect them to have a great year next season, and if they do, I mean, their odds are only going to get shorter once the season goes on. So if you're going to bet on the Chiefs at all, I think now would be the time to do to
win the Super Bowl. And I mean there's a good argument to be made that Patrick Mahomes is going to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
He's the next generation, and.
Maybe the Chiefs are starting to slowly get into a dynasty here. So if you want to bet on the Chiefs at all plus six hundred, I mean, I don't think that's a bad bet. The other team that we didn't talk about when talking about the NFC that I don't hate their Super Bowl odds.
Here are the Eagles at seventeen to one to win the Super Bowl.
They had I mean just injuries on injuries on injuries on injuries last year. This is already a team that won the Super Bowl a few years back. Of course, that was Nick Foles as quarterback. But I think Carson Wentz got a lot of flat this year that I don't think he deserved. I think the Eagles can get back there again this coming year if they can stay healthy. I like their coach. So the Eagles at seventeen to one, I think they're worth a look as well if you're looking at the NFC.
Teams, actually think that's a great call. Yeah, And look, Wentz played incredibly well this year, I thought, I mean, he had nobody to throw the ball to at any time, so I think the way he really held it together is pretty great. The one thing I'll point out here is, you know, we talk about the consensus odds here, right, and that takes into account a large number of books. But if you look at the individual books, you're gonna
find some discrepancies. Like the consensus odds on the Eagles are plus seventeen hundred, but at bet MGM they have them at plus fourteen hundred. At points Bet they have them at plus eighteen hundred. And that's actually one of the things that I would point out because the Packers at plus eighteen hundred are fine. I don't love them.
I assume that they're going to add another wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers, because you have to obviously, and if they do, and if they can make another run, then every book that I'm looking at essentially has it at eighteen hundred. But on FanDuel it's plus twenty two hundred that I like a lot, because that to me, once you get to that level, I find you know, the difference between eighteen hundred and twenty two hundred is not
insignificant whatsoever. So what I would do if I were you again, you can do it on bettingpros dot com. We have the consensus lines and then you see every odd basically available at the various books. Pick your best line. Make sure you can go out there because you might be able to take advantage of every once in a while, certain books have lines that you're like, oh, you know what, I'm lukewarm at it on the consensus line, but given
that line for that particular book, I like it. But in terms of the Eagles, pick yeah, I do like it. The other one that I would like, the Packers, if you can get him at plus twenty two hundred over at Fandel, I would do that at plus eighteen hundred, I don't hate them either. For again, all of these
are predicated on the team's taking a leap right. The Eagles, for example, they've got a I mean, I guess they could get by with just Deshaun Jackson, and you know him, if he's healthy, he opens up that offense a lot and just basically having a generally healthy year. But the Packers, if they add a wide receiver at this point, I think they could be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Obviously, they made it to the championship game this year, so plus
eighteen hundred they're okay for me. Plus twenty two hundred, I really like them.
Yeah, and I love the fact that you brought up look around for different books.
I know a lot of people don't necessarily like using different books during the season because a lot of the time you can only get like half a point, maybe a full point difference on games. And as you're talking about that, I was looking. I went down to look at my Falcons odds. Most books have plus thirty three hundred plus thirty five hundred. But then FanDuel, again, I don't know if the packers and the Falcons are giving them a great a lot of value here Falcons plus
thirty three hundred, most books FanDuel plus forty three hundred. Yeah, so that's a massive difference if we want to bet on the Falcons there to win the Super Bowl next year. So yeah, I love that point that you brought up. If you're going to place the future that you want to definitely look for the best value possible.
Yeah, and again, I mean you look at it. FanDuel is really sort of the one that that's kind of the outlier with the consensus. I mean you look at the Bucks. The consensus odds are plus five thousand. That's what you'll see at DraftKings Sports book. That's what you'll see it a lot. On Fandel It's only plus thirty five hundred to win the Super Bowl. So this is really a time where the books are going to be as different as possible. Again, you're right you talk about that.
I wish it weren't necessarily the case, but for the most part, the consensus line all of the books are really really close and the numbers. Now is a time where if you look around and again just go to bettingpros Dot com. We have all of them listed out right next to each other, so you can see you'll find a lot of differences in the various books. So that is the time to take advantage of it. All right, Ian, that is it for us. It has been great to
talk a little bit of football for twenty twenty. Remind everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Yeah, absolutely, Dan, Yeah, So the best place to find me is on Twitter. If anyone out there is on Twitter there my handle is Ian mac Osi a I n m acos. Now that the NFL season is over, I do a lot of college basketball and golf betting for the spring and then into the summer, So if you're into that, be sure to give me a follow on Twitter, and of course check us out at odd shark dot com.
Awesome, Well, I look forward to talking again as always, and probably it'll be about a different sport. But until then, take it easy and let's go Falcons.
That sounds good, Dan, take care all right.
We're gonna switch gears here a bit and turn to the Academy Awards, which airs this Sunday night, February ninth. If you have ever listened to any of my other podcasts. Then you know that I'm a bit of a cinophile, so I'm pretty excited about the segment, both because of the topic and because of our guest, Carrie Kurpin, this CEO of Likable Media. You can find her on Twitter at Carrie Kurpein Now. I've known Carrie for years, and
I've been eager to have her on ever since. We made a small wager about fifteen years ago on whether Crash or Broke Back Mountain would win Best Picture, and she won. So today I'm going to exact my revenge for that and the fact that she kicked me over a table during a fight about Nintendo when I was eleven. Yes, she is the CEO of a social media company. Yes she is an oscar betting expert, and yes she also happens to be my big sister. Carrie. Welcome to the show.
How are you hey, Dan? Thrilled to be here. It's been a long time since I pushed you over that table.
I know our parents still referenced it pretty much every day of our lives, and it's really kind of shaped the way I am as a human. So I mean it's true. Yeah, you should go. Yeah, he had a big impact on me. How about that, Carrie? This is actually our first non NFL segment ever on this podcast. It is a ton of pressure. Are you ready? I'm ready for the pressure.
Man.
I that was a big bet with Crash and I was quite happy to win. And I'm I'm gonna hold myself to those same high standards now.
Well, you better because I've been waiting for this moment for a long time. Well, let us jump in here. We're gonna break down some of the odds on the quote unquote major awards. All right, that includes Best Picture, all the acting awards, Director, and both screenplay, original and adapt It does that work for you?
Totally works.
As with anything you can bet on, the odds vary depending on what book you go to. But we're going to be using DraftKings for our odds because DraftKings not only offers odds on every major sport, but also now on the Academy Awards, and they are currently offering an outstanding deal for new users. Place a five dollars wager on the winner of Best Picture, and if you win, you win fifty dollars regardless of the odds. That is it. And Carrie and I are gonna talk about the Best
Picture category, so you're gonna have plenty of information. You can go to bettingpros dot com slash DraftKings for more details. But again, if you're a new DraftKings sportsbook user and your first wager is a five dollars bet on Best Picture, and you're right, you'll win fifty dollars. All right, carry
let's get into it. So I think when you look at historical awards director, Screenplay, and Picture, there's sometimes some correlation because voters may like multiple movies, so they want to spread out the awards a little bit in those categories. So let's save those for last, because, as we'll talk about,
there's a bit of drama around those awards. So Lesson said, start with the acting awards, and what's probably the one award where there is the least amount of drama, and that's Best Actor, where Walking Phoenix is an overwhelming favorite at minus five thousand. Adam Driver is next at plus one thousand, Leo DiCaprio at plus thirty three hundred, then Antonio banderis at plus five thousand, and Jonathan Price at
plus sixty six hundred. This is the biggest favorite of the night, Joaquin Phoenix won both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award. Is there any chance that anyone other than Joaquin Phoenix is going to go home with this award?
There's basically no chance, And the reason is that Hollywood and the Academy really love a body transformation. If you want to get super fat or super skinny for any award, you're basically upping your chances of winning by a lot. And this was a huge physical transformation, not to mention a breathtaking performance. This is pretty much a lock. Only a slight potential for Adam Driver because of how mesmerizing he was in marriage story, But really Joaquin.
For the win. Yeah, I really Of all the awards, there are a couple here that we'll talk about that realistically, there's almost no chance that anybody else is gonna win except for the favorite. But this one I think is pretty much the lock of the night. And you mentioned it method acting also, that's what they love. Apparently he
was basically the joker throughout filming this entire thing. That's gonna do it and the body transformation you talked about it Raging Bull with Robert de Niro, the gaining weight to losing weight Daniel de Lewis, the way he basically transforms into the character. These types of performances are absolute lock, and that is why the odds. He was an overwhelming favorite when the season started, but now it's basically a
complete lock. And with how little money you're gonna be able to win, it's really not even worth betting on. And that makes a good point before we go on, because let's explain this to Mom, who's undoubtedly listening today. Mom, Hi, Mom, how are you? Tears in her eyes at how successful
both their children are. When I say that Joaquin Phoenix is at minus five thousand, that means that you would have to risk five thousand dollars just to win one hundred dollars, or because Mom is not good with math, you'd have to risk fifty dollars to win one dollar, So that's an overwhelming favorite. When I say Jonathan Price is at plus sixty six hundred, that means he's essentially sixty six to one. If you risk one hundred dollars
and he won, you'd win sixty six hundred dollars. So the chances are pretty minimal now, although Mom is undoubtedly still confused. I think everyone else probably gets it at
this point. Let's stick with the male performances here and move on to supporting actor, where we also have an overwhelming but not quite as overwhelming a favorite in Brad Pitt, who's at minus four thousand, Joe Peshi's next at plus twelve hundred, Al Pacino at plus twenty eight hundred, Tom Hanks at plus thirty three hundred, and Anthony Hopkins at plus five thousand. So how do you feel here? Is Pitt guaranteed the winner? Or what he is not?
He is not guaranteed. It is a strong favorite, but not a guarantee. Here's what will happen if, once upon a time in Hollywood takes it, which there is a possibility.
That it does.
Then I believe this could be spread out. It could be a shocker, and you could say, Okay, that's gonna win Best Picture, And you know what, we're gonna maybe even give this to Tom Hanks. You know why, because Joile quene One, he's not that nice or likable. He's seen as kind of this very troubled guy, and he won for this dark performance. Let's give it to Tom Hanks because everybody loves Tom Hanks, So that would be
a reach. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm saying that that's a philosophy that could if you were somebody who wanted to bet and take.
A long shot. Interesting, well, Hank's. The one thing about Hank's, obviously, is that his role as mister Rogers is essentially a feel good role and the type of things that probably Academy voters like to embrace, considering especially the time that we're in where you know, everybody seems to be mad at everybody. So Hanks really in that sort of role would make an interesting choice. I think for me, though, man, you know, Pitt has won the Globe and the SAG.
Now you mentioned a good point, and we're going to get into this little later. And one of the reasons why I wanted to do the Screenplay Awards, the Director Awards, and then Best Picture last is because to me, I feel like that is more where Academy voters like to spread things out, right, like, yeah, we're going to talk about this. You've got nineteen seventeen, You've got Parasite, and you've got Once upon a Time in Hollywood. Those three movies are really kind of you know, vying for the
big prizes in it. And it's a fair point, but I think for me, and again, it's he's an overwhelming favorite for a reason, obviously, and one of these overwhelming favorites almost certainly is going to lose because that's just
kind of the way it works, is that. I think if Pitt wins, I'm not sure whether or not it has an impact, but it would be interesting whether or not they would say, you know what, we're going to give these other awards necessarily to once upon a time in Hollywood, So why don't we give this to sort of the feel good guy? And you're right, everybody loves Tom Hanks. He's won two Academy Awards, although not in twenty five years of this, that's correct, which has.
Been a long time.
It's been a long time. Mister Rogers, right, who doesn't love mister Rodgers.
Who doesn't love mister Rogers. But the thing about Brad Pitt, now, of course, I as a marketer, always think about the people behind the Academy who are producing the show, who want to make it as watchable as possible, And right now everyone is talking about Brad Pitt. Why because Jennifer Eniston has had a resurgence because they're both single, because he's sober, So for that reason alone, people want to
see him get up there, don't you know. Never mind the fact that he did have a great performance in this film, but people want to see him get up there because they're looking for those pictures. And the shot of Jennifer's face as he walks up to accept.
The award also fair. And again he did give great speeches it. I believe the SAG Awards, you know, and that actually carries a little bit of weight because they're like, all right, you know, Joe Peshy, I believe again, who's the second favorite in this at plus twelve hundred for the Irishman? When he won his award for good Fellas, I believe his Oscar speech was thanks and then he walked off. So I don't think, really you know that that sticks in Oscar voters mindset.
Yeah, yes, and they don't. They don't reward people who hate the shows. Remember Sean Penn being totally silenced for such a long time because he just refused to attend.
That's true, but he did eventually win, of course, I believe twice if memory service, But either way. Look, I think you know we agree Brad Pitt is the overwhelming favorite, but I like I like the thought that you know, Hanks is the type of guy who, in this climate in particular, is somebody who could sneak in there. And again, plus thirty three hundred doesn't take a particularly large bet to win you some money. Correct. Let's move on here
to best Supporting Actress. Again, we have another very similar favorite, Laura Dern for Marriage Story at minus four thousand, Margot Robbie at plus twelve hundred, Florence Pugh at plus fourteen hundred, Scarlett Johansson double nominee here she's at plus twenty five hundred, and my secret crush Kathy Baits at plus five thousand. So again we haven't overwhelming. You knew that, right, I mean, mom knows like I secretly, I am in love with Kathy Baits. That's a story for another time. Laura Dern
at minus four thousand, overwhelming favorite. She has won both the Golden Globe and the SAG. I loved her performance in Marriage Story. She sort of played that, you know that lawyer, and again I was a lawyer, so you know we have that where even I can embrace it and be like, man, you hated her, but you loved her at the same time. So what do you think here? Is Laura Drn? Is anybody else worth betting on? Or is this during? Yeah?
This is a lock.
Yeah, no, I agree with that. And again, Lord Dern, she's kind of beloved by the Academy. She hasn't won an oscar, but she's been nominated a few times. And you know what's funny is that originally Florence Pugh was very close in odds when you know they first opened up. But since then, Durren's got so much momentum. So this is just a lock. Take Dern, don't look it.
It's a lock.
I might throw fifty dollars on Kathy Bates though, just to.
Support your crush. I like it, all right, I'm in with you. We'll double it up, We'll go all right, let's move on to Best Actress here. This is another one with a clear favorite. But I have certain opinions on this one, which we'll talk about. Reneesel Wigger again at minus four thousand, just like Laura Dern, just like Brad Pitt, Scarlett Johanson. Again, I said double nominee plus
eleven hundred. Next, that's followed by Sir Sha Ronan and Cynthia Arrivo at plus twenty five hundred and Charlie's theron plus thirty three hundred. Again, like all the other favorites, reneesel Wiger won the Golden Globe and the sag Award. So tell me what do you think is gonna happen here?
Hello?
This is a luck? Why? Because she totally transformed her appearing. She looked just like Judy Garland Renee is a lock. She looked like her, she sounded like her, she was her. This is a comeback story. The Adamy loves it, and she is a lock.
Okay, let me make the case for one other person. I know. Look, we have to make a case. Okay, I can't wait to hear who You're all right? Well, who would you think? You're? My sister? You know me? Well, well something I'm gonna go with Scarlett Johanson, Sara Sharonan, Cynthia Rivo where Charlie's the throng.
God, I can make an argument for all of them except for scar Joe. I could say Sarah Sharonan, who I always say her name incorrectly, did not get the director. Not so she should get it. I would say Cynthia Arrivo had a phenomenal performance and of course would help represent the African American community with Oscar being oh so white. And then Charlie's of course supports my physical transformation story and actually looked exactly like Megan Kelly.
She did yes, absolutely well. For me, it's a revo and it's not. Look, Zellwegger is the overwhelming favorite. I'm gonna put a taste where I can on a revote just again, you mentioned it. It is the story of Harriet Tubman. It is a historical figure. It is somebody
who's extremely important. And look, it's just a fact of life that the can me gets a great deal of blowback when there aren't a lot of you know, African American nominees, and you know, for women, we'll talk about that with Little Women, with Gretg Gerwig not getting the best director, Get me started. They're well, you're gonna have to get started, because we'll talk about it. But there are you know, these these when when you're at a something like this, I could see Zewig getting it. Remember
though she's won before. She's got one for cold Mountains. So you know, it's not as if this would be like, well, you know, she's had this long, storied career. We have to honor her. It is something where men, if somebody else is gonna win, to me, Cynthia Rivo, Harriet Tubman, that's just you know, a historical figure. I feel like, usually a good shot for Best Actress. So for me, yes,
who do I expect to win? Rense Elwiger, I agree, But if I were to pick somebody else, it would be Cynthia Rivo because I do think, given all of these outside factors, that she's the only other one who has a shot.
Well, I will tell you this. I absolutely loved Renees Elwiger's performance. However, I also loved Cynthia Rivo's performance, and if she won, I would jump for joy. Now you're giving me a bet that I think I'm going to take.
There, I love it. And also, by the way, I have a writing candidate to get Kathy Baits also nominated.
For Super Kathy Baits for all categories.
Well a Best Actor, don't forget about that. Okay, yeah, correct, Let's go real quick to adapted screenplay, because I don't think this moves the needle much with Best Picture. I think whoever wins the original screenplay that's really more important. But let's go here. Jojo Rabbit actually the favorite at minus two hundred. So I mean we were talking about the actors minus four thousand, minus five thousand. This is all the way minus two hundred. So this is certainly
a much closer race. Little Women second at plus one point fifty. Then you got to jump down to the Irishman at plus eight hundred, then a longer jump to the Joker at plus four thousand, and the two Popes at plus five thousand. I'm going to say this, this has shifted in recent weeks. Okay, Little Women was the favorite for a while. Then Jojo Rabbit taiko wa tit. She won the he won the Writer's Guild Awards. So you know that really is what has moved these odds
here towards Jojo Rabbit. So how do you feel about this one?
If I were betting on my favorite, I would take the long shot for the two popes. However, here I would bet Little Women because they have to win after the huge director snub. I mean to me, it's like that they have to win.
And not only that, I mean, this isn't just honoring the movie. This is Gerwig herself, right, who was exactly who's one of the writers who's nominated for screenplay. Yeah, I'm surprised here, honestly, Like I get the Writer's Guild of America is you know, fairly predictive, and it contains a big body of people who are going to vote on the stuff. So I understand why it moved the odds. But in the end, they're Little Women's coming away with something.
And I don't you know, they've got all the actress nominations. I don't think they're gonna win any but this one. Come on, it's Greta Gerwig. There was all the talk how she didn't get a director nomination. I really think and you're getting plus you know, on your money, not overwhelming, but the fact that it's not the favorite, I agree with you completely. I think Little Women's going to take those home.
I'm trying to think about why the odds shifted, and I guess it could be that Jojo Rabbit Now is widely released over OTT so it may be gain buzz or gaining momentum. It certainly is a very innovative story. But I just think too. You can't do gredit dirty like that.
That's not right. No, I completely agree with you.
No.
And again, when these odds first opened, when the Academy was first nominade, I believe that Jojo Rabbit, that White Titi was third in the odds. Originally, like this was, this was not a favorite. And again it really has
moved significantly. And one of the things that's weird about the Oscars this here is it's so early, right, because I think eventually what happened is that the odds, you know, people, it became a lot easier to protect, except Best Picture, and we'll talk about that in a bit, but it became much easier to pretict. Now that's earlier, there's a little uncertainty. So it's nice on the move. So we
are in agreement here. We both think that Little Women is going to take home Adapted screenplay, So let us move on to original screenplay. This is a good one here. It's really, you know, a race between two and that's Parasite, which is the favorite at minus two hundred versus Once upon a Time in Hollywood, which is at plus one fifty.
Then you jump down a bit to marriage story, also an incredibly well written film at plus oney nineteen seventeen at plus two thousand, and knives out at plus three thousand. The one thing I will say, nineteen seventeen, a movie that I loved, has like eight words of dialogue, so it's a little surprising to me that it was nominated for Original Screenplay. But what do you think here? This is a big one.
This is all about the link between these awards. So whichever there is a chance here of the screenplay best Picture split right, So if Parasite doesn't win Best Picture, it will almost certainly win Original Screenplay. It's almost like it's gonna be the in my mind, the runner up prize. Whoever you think is going to win Best Picture, you have to pick the other for original screenplay, right.
And the thing is, because we'll get to this too. You could see, okay, let's split up screenplay and Best Picture and Best Director. The problem is, as we'll get to of the these three kind of major most predictive awards, best Director is pretty much a lock. I mean, I'm going to be shocked in Sam Mendy for nineteen seventy that's at so that's almost certainly doing it. So if you have that. I will be shocked it could happen, and we'll talk about why in a minute. But once
upon a time in Hollywood could win Best Picture. But I think Parasite has just been gaining steam. And we will talk about the text that you sent me roughly two months ago predicting that Parasite was going to win Best Picture before I had ever even heard of it. But I will say this, once upon a Time in Hollywood won the Golden Globe Award. It was not even nominated for Best Screenplay for the Writer's Guild Award. That is really, really weird, and I can't exactly figure it out.
Parasite did win that award, So I mean, for me.
You can't figure out why it wasn't nominated. There you're saying, not why it's nominated here?
Oh correct, yes, absolutely no, no, no, no, I have absolutely no problem. I apologize for it being nominated here. But the fact especially it won the Golden Globe, and the Golden Globe is kind of an outlier, right, It's not all that predictive. It's a completely different body. The how press association form pressociations, so it's a completely different body. But in the end to not even be nominated for
their Writers Skilled Award really surprised me. Again, that's a big voting block of this award, So for me, I think I'll go with Parasite. But you know, and that is actually one of the reasons why I do think to the extent they do want to honor them. And I said, for the most part, they don't go to actors. But Pitt I think is pretty much going to win that award, and that could be their way of saying, Okay, there you go, there's that award. You know what I mean?
I do.
I think because I felt so strongly about Parasite early and you have saved the text where I immediately felt that this was something that was going to gain steam. I am therefore not going to put it for Best Screenplay. I am going to put for Original Screenplay. Once upon a Time in Hollywood. Now, not only was that a very interesting story, but the way that it was told was fascinating, and the way that it's tied in reality with an alternate reality of these kind of Hollywood legends
and long history in Hollywood. I think that Hollywood is in love with itself. The Academy is in love with itself. And so this will win something, and I think this is where it's going to go.
Well, it certainly would make sense if this one original if one supon time in Hollywood won Original Screenplay nineteen seventeen, Sam and he's one Best Director, and then Parisi wins Best Picture, it would be a way to honor all of them.
So I don't really does it happen, Dan, does that happen usually? You know, you have this long history of knowing every Oscar winner under the sun.
That's true. The one thing is that things have changed a little bit, in part because of the fact that it went from being five nominated Best Pictures, where the universe was always much smaller, to nine and or ten up to ten and this year it's line. So it doesn't usually work like that. There aren't these three movies that everybody's like, Oh, I really want to, you know, evaluate it and give some love to So I would
say not winning for screenplay. It used to be Best Director and Best Picture were completely correlated, but in recent years it's been a huge split with that. So at this point, the way it would split, it's it's not that surprising that it would happen historically, though, it'd be pretty rare, I.
Think, especially looking at the odds, though I would not bet personally. I would not bet Parasite on that because it's it's not enough skin in the game to actually matter, and once upon a time in Hollywood has some and so I would bet this here.
Yep, I think that's an absolutely fair take. Now, Best Director, we mentioned it briefly. Sounds like we're both in agreement here. Sam Mendy's the overwhelming favorite at minus nine hundred, Bang Juno at plus four fifty for Parasite, Quentin Tarantino at plus seventeen hundred, Martin Scorsese at plus four thousand, and Todd Phillips at plus five thousand. So again, Sam Mendy's he won the Golden Globe, he won the DGA. The DGA the Director's Guild of America Awards. They are the
most predictive award by far. If you win that, you know all. But I think it's seven over the last I don't know, like fifty sixty years have wound up winning the Oscar for Best Director, so incredibly predictive. So are we in agreement here that Sam Mendes is basically walking home with this award. Yes, all right, let me ask let me just try to throw one little tiny, it'sy bitsy wrinkle into it in our sort of They want to honor all these movies, so let's see how
they're able to break it down. Quentin Tarantino has been around for a long time, right. He's made a number of highly regarded films that have been, you know, nominated for Oscars. He won Best Screenplay, I believe, for Pulp Fiction and it was nominated, and he was nominated in Glorious Bastards. He's obviously been around the while. I believe he has said that he is making one more film after this and that is it and then he is done. And if that's true, is there any chance it's plus
seventeen hundred? It's a big log shot. Is there any chance that the Academy is gonna be like, you know what, we don't know what that last film is gonna be. He said he might be a star Trek he's been talking about. So it may not even have a chance to be nominated for an Oscar. This could be their last chance to nominate Tarantino. Is there any way anyway to be clear? I don't think there is I'm just throwing out food for thought, but is there any way
Tarantino plus seventeen hundred. That's a lot on your money that there could be a curveball here and that the Oscar could go to Tarantino for once upon a time in Hollywood at plus seventeen hundred.
Look, I think odds are odds for a reason, because the ones that are most likely to win often have the best odds. I think it's a fair point and an interesting point, and a good kind of long shot. If you're looking at if you say, you know what, that's possible, that's a hypothesis I could get behind. So I think it's interesting. I mean, I'm not a huge Tarantino fan anyway, which I'm sure most of the listeners that you will have here will probably hate me for that.
But I did enjoy this film by far more than his other films. So I think it's a shot.
It's a chance, it's a chance, it's a chance.
It certainly makes for an interesting chat, interesting podcast.
I like it. That is a very delicate way of saying that you disagree strongly, and I really appreciate it. But yeah, Sam Menda is gonna win.
It's all in one shot.
It's beauty. It's all.
You should see it in the theater, all of it.
It is gorgeous. It's a wonderful movie. I do love it, and I am gonna let you know that after this, I'm going to change my Twitter profile to quick to add in the quote that's a hypothesis I could get behind, because I think that that's going to be my new life model.
All right, I thought you were going to change it to I Love Kathy Bates.
Well, I think I have a restraining order against me, so I have to be careful. Okay, let's go on to Best Picture here, the big one. This is it. We've talked about it. It's it's really a three way race, as we talked about. But you know, Joker, I believe has the most nominations here with eleven, so that's always kind of a predictive for Best Picture. But let's talk about the odds here. Nineteen seventeen is the current favorite. They're at minus two fifty, so that's a fair favorite
at this point when you're talking about Best Picture. Parasite is next at plus three twenty five. That's a pretty big difference between the two I'm a little surprised that
it's that different. Once upon a Time in Hollywood at plus eight hundred, Joker at plus twelve hundred, and nobody else has a realistic chance, but I will add them in The Irishman at plus five thousand, Jojo Rabbit at plus sixty six hundred, Little Women at plus eight thousand, Marriage Story at plus ten thousand and four, v Ferrari at plus twenty five thousand. So let's just break this
down for very quickly. The nineteen seventeen won the Golden Globe for Best Picture in a Drama, Once Upon a Time won Best Golden Globe for Best Picture Comedy or Musical, and Parasite won the SAG Awards. So it's all over the place. So I look, I have a text. I can read the text, so I know exactly what you're going to say. But go ahead. You think that Parasite is taking this home. Huh.
Well, I think that nineteen seventeen is the heavy favorite, but I want to see Parasite win, and I think there can be a good upset. I'm actually upset that the odds have come this close. There's a big spread here, obviously, from negative two fifty to three twenty five. However, I thought it would be even farther way. But this has been mementom sad did me dirty. I'm not happy about it. But the reason I think Parasite will win. First of all, I think it was like the Shocker of the year,
like you didn't expect anything from it. You didn't have any idea what was going to happen in the movie. I mean, we were just sitting there in that film, like, oh my goodness, about halfway through and we had no idea what to expect. And it was fantastic, surprising, interesting, beautifully acted all of the things. And it's also not white, and I think that would be the showing that they need this has enough odds to make it close. I mean, Cynthia Rivo is far away. I love that argument, you know,
I'd love if she wanted. But but Parasite, I think could be a good representation of showing that, no, we don't always select every war movie, mobster movie, you know, every every typical movie that you see. We do have a depth to us and we do pick things that are sometimes unexpected. This to me felt very much like the crash moment where I saw it, and I was like, no,
this is it. Even though even though it wasn't necessarily the best of the films Crash at the time, I just knew it based on what was happening in the world, and I kind of feel like with Parasite it's the same.
So the one thing that makes this award much more difficult to predict, I think than any other award is that this is not done in the same way that other awards are done. You rank these awards, the voters rank them, so you literally go there and you rank your choices, and so you could conceivably be Parasite, could be no voter's first choice, and could be every voter second choice and win the Oscar for Best Picture, because in the end it winds up with however they tabulated
based on the ranking. So this one is really difficult to predict. So look, Parasite is a funment. I mean it. You know, it reminds you a lot of get out right that sort of thing, nineteen seventeen and you know, yeah, it's the war movie. It's kind of like the classic or like whatever. To me, I'm gonna I it the I don't love the odds rankly because I think, you know, to me, the odds should be even closer. I mean, this is really kind of a toss up right now
between Parasite and nineteen seventeen. But I still think in the end, nineteen seventeen is going to take it home. And you know, part of it again reminds me a little bit of Birdman, which had the same concept in terms of directing, where it's done to be one long, continuous shot. It was really just stunning in every single way. So for me, I think in the end, what probably
happens and it's the favorite. As we talked about for screenplay, I think they're going to honor Parasite with Best Screenplay, to give a foreign language film Best Picture. I mean, they're almost there. The Academy is moving in that direction, but for me, I think we're still a little bit of a step away from it. That's a big leap. So for me, I think I don't love the odds,
so I wouldn't place a bet on it. And you know, I like the odds at Parasite at plus three twenty five, which they were much longer, just you know, a week or two ago. I think the odds on that are better in terms of what I think the actual chances of winning are. But I do think in the end that nineteen seventeen takes it up.
I'm sure you're right. Look, I mean it makes sense, especially with the split, and especially with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Like if you look at it, like Parasite takes screenplay and then nineteen seventeen takes the other two, it's just look at the odds. What's kind of what's the point? So I think you got to have a little fun for me. I'm going Parasite on Best Picture.
I'm gonna go Sam Mendez for Best Director, and I'm gonna go Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for screenplay, just for fun, because hello, I want to win.
I like it.
I don't want to bet, you know, one hundred bucks to win.
Two unless it's unless it's Kathy Bits, right, only Kathy Baits. Yeah, that's the only exception.
But I'm betting on her right away, and her odds are the best of all.
No, I completely agree. Well, Long Shot of the Night is going to be a revo. That's the one who I think could do it. Otherwise, I'm pretty much going with the favorites. I think Parasite's gonna win Original Screenplay. And again I don't love the odds, you know, minus two hundred mendes though for sure, and I do think nineteen seventeen is gonna take it. That may be a little bit of wishful thinking for me, because I did love it. It was my favorite film of the season.
But it's gonna be interesting. And again, this is something you know, we talk about Crash all the time. That's like the quintessential, like, wow, we didn't really see that coming except you. But remember Moonlight just a few years ago. Nobody right, nobody saw that. Everybody thought it was gonna be Lalla Aline. So it is something where you know, upset time, including Warren Beatty, including Warren bit No, it wasn't his fault, all right, They gave him the wrong
on Belove so whatever. All right, Well, look that is going to do it for today's show. Carry Kurpin, thank you for coming on. Tell everyone, because I've been talking this whole time, and other than our upbringing. Tell everyone where they can find you, where they can check you out. Tell everybody about yourself.
Sure you can find me at Carrie Kirpin, just about everywhere in the world. You can check out my podcast All the Social Ladies, which interviews women in marketing, or you can buy my book work at Secrets for Success from the Boldest Woman in Business. I do wish they had Oscar betting tips there because I could do a whole chapter on that and talk about it all day. So thank you for indulging me. Dan, this is your sister's dream, I know.
It's my pleasure. Well, we do Oscar odds. Basically, we have this entire conversation, just not on a podcast every single year. Anyway. This is kind of how our family grew up. So hopefully we can have you back next year, I hope. So all right, thanks again, thanks again for coming on, and I'll see you in a couple of weeks when we come down to visit.
That's right.
I want to mind everybody about DraftKings, where you can place a five dollars wager on any picture to win best picture and win fifty dollars if you are correct. Now, I'm not sure of our schedule going forward here guys, but you can always reach me at Dan Harris eighty on Twitter if you want to inquire. Until then, enjoy the Oscars gear it for some baseball and we'll talk to him ten Tebody are never
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