241: Trading Market Phases - with Mish Schneider

Welcome to Better System Trader, the show where we talk about all things systematic and algorithmic trading. And today we've got a very special guest. I've been looking forward to this one for quite a while now, Ms. Schneider from Market Gauge. Welcome, Mish. How are you? I'm great. How are you, Andrew?

I'm uh I'm very well, thank you. And now I've been looking forward to this for probably a couple of months now because you were a guest on our trading panel that we did uh I did a couple of months ago with with Jason and um I really enjoyed what you had to say and I've been following your work and and researching you for quite a while now. So it's um really an honor to have you on the show here today. Thank you. Well, thank you for having me. It's an honor to be here.

Well, before we dig into what I think is one of your superpowers in trading, can you give us a little bit of background on yourself just to give uh some context to our discussion today? Okay. Well, as we say in the States, the reader's digest version. Mm-hmm. is that um I grew up never thinking about finance or the markets because uh we were sort of a working family and my goal was to be a teacher.

And so I did become a teacher and not actually a special education teacher, but I quickly evolved into more administration in in that I became a consultant for school districts uh and for individual kids. placing them in general education. So that was my thing was

to uh rid the school systems of exclusion of kids with disabilities. And it it's it's a fight that many people still continue to to battle. Um and that's a whole other story. But When uh I did everything that my family expected me to do, I got married, I became a teacher, I lived close to my parents.

And then when I was in my young twenties I said, okay, um, I don't really wanna be married to this person. I don't really wanna be living in Queens, New York, which is close to where my parents were. But I still didn't mind the teaching until I moved into until I got divorced, moved to and had realized I couldn't afford to eat. 감사합니다. on a teacher's salary. And then it was just, you know, basically Kismet, this woman that lived in my building.

knocked on my door one day, turned out she was a clerk for Merrill Lynch on the Kamaize Exchange in New York. We became friendly and she said, Hey, you wanna come down and see where I work? And it was like Wow. This this is what I was meant to do and and it wasn't easy, but I got a job down there. worked for Conte Commodities, became a broker in s coffee sugar cocoa. They went belly up because of the Hunt brothers trying to corner the silver market back in the day.

Hm. And uh and that started my career as an independent and I started getting seats around the exchanges and I learned how to trade pretty much everything. And I mean the only th other thing I'll say about that is because of my physical difference in that I wasn't strong enough or loud enough. I often had to rely on anticipating what I wanted to do and for and giving somebody an order or jumping in.

before the insanity so that I wouldn't get all basically washed up and swallowed up by by the sea of men. Um but I loved it. I loved every second of being down there. I was there for 14 years. And the other thing I didn't expect was to um look, Keith had left the floor by this point and we met up in the World Trade Center. And um we started dating. So it was kinda like another interesting kismet was that I would marry somebody who loved to trade and

So he's really been entrepreneurial with market gauge. Well before that he had a a company called Market Vision and then Dataview and then Market Gage and I started working with them and here we are. Excellent. Well um We're gonna dig into uh I've got a question towards the end I I wanna ask you about longevity in the market'cause obviously from way back in, you know, on the floor to what you're doing now, um, you know, the market

or trading tends to have a high rate of attrition. So I'm gonna ask you something about that later. So something to keep into the back of your mind. But um how would you describe your trading approach today?

I've evolved so much and what's so great about this business, Andrew, is that you never stop learning or evolving. Um obviously when I was much younger, especially on the floor, I was a scalping. Because that's what you did back then. You would have a co position perhaps, but basically you were following momentum.

So if the bids got louder and the orders came flowing in, you would get in there. And then as soon as you would feel things dry up, you'd get out. That's how I started. In and out, in and out, in and out. When I moved when when electr when when trading went from open outcry to electronic trading, of course that's not so easy. There are people who still do that, but that wasn't for me. So we had I had to reinvent myself.

And I became more of what I call a mini swing trader. So I would get some a a a thought in my head about a position I wanted, but maybe I'd be at least taking a profit or out within two, three days. And I did that for years and years and years and sometimes I would stay with something longer, but that was the average. And now that I am more mature

I don't want to do that either. So I actually now do more swing trading. So I'll get my head behind something, whether it's a mega trend or a geopolitical situation or a a consumer instinct about a company or a product, I will then time my way in using my technical analysis.

because I was a chartist on the floor. That's one of the things that I got really, really good at. Um and and then I will sit now with things much longer. With risk parameters. If something's not working, I'm not stubborn about it. I will get out. Yeah.

Yeah. Well um I th I agree that I do think that is one of your superpowers, um, being able to read the charts and read the markets. Now you've you're on quite a few uh T V shows for your opinion on the markets and and uh on lots of popular or very uh large YouTube channels. for that exact skill. So I thought that might be a good topic for us to dive into today in um, you know, techniques to read the market.

I think it's a super valuable skill, whether you're a discretionary trader or um even if you're algor algorithmic or quant based trader, being able to understand the context of the markets and the context of the trades that you take can be incredibly important.

i in the results that you achieve, right? So um I I saw a a video that you published, I think it may have been a couple of years ago now, which I think was really um had some really important points there, and that was about market phases. I think traders typically think, oh, bull market, bear market, and that's kind of a you know, binary look at the way things work.

But you really talked about a number of different market phases and the transitions between those. Can you give us a little bit of insight into how you look at market phases? Well just to give you a little background, so I wasn't the only floor trader with Market Gage. Um Keith obviously he was a f a floor trader for many, many years. And so was Jeff Bish, who is the president of Market Gauge. So we all were cut from the same mold.

And as a result, what we know very well is that the definition of a bullish market and a bearish market is a little bit too constricted.

And there's a lot of stuff and opportunity that happens in between whatever the classic definition. I know I see people say, Oh, something's up twenty percent, it's bullish market, something's down twenty percent, it's in a bearish market. And Uh that that that doesn't fly as a flow trader because then you won't really be able to capitalize on every market condition.

So what we discovered, and it's so simple. I might it's my book actually, Andrew, Plant Your Money. Yes. Uh and and I and and and every time I waver from it. I get into trouble as soon as I stick to it. I do so much better. That's how simple and beautiful it is. So basically it's six phases, right? using two simple moving averages. Now that doesn't mean that I don't use other things at this point. I have learned momentum indicator is something that I'm really, really keen on these days.

another proprietary instrument, by the way, that Market Gauge has. But we can get back to that. In terms of the phases, I use a 50. And a 200-day moving average. I may use a 10 for timing. There are other things that we may use on a much more shorter term basis, like a one-minute chart. That's only to execute or to get stopped out. But in terms of my idea of what I want to get into. When I was more technical, I would just buy because something changed the face.

Now I like things more and I wait for the things that I like, but I still wait for them to change a phase. So the bullish phase and the 50 and the 200, and by the way, you can do this on a weekly basis too. So you can have a 50 week. and a two hundred week, which is what I have in my book. And the reason why is because it's a slower time frame. So I really love when both line up. But anyway

So if the 50 is above the 200, that's a bullish phase, especially if the price has to be above the bullish. And we have a we have a wheel on our website that kind of shows you all of that so you can see.

And what you really want to do is you want to be able to identify the transition of a phase. That's always the best time to get in, because it's sometimes the most explosive, number one and number two. It offers the least amount of risk. So trying to visualize this without having an actual visual in front of me. What happens is when the 50 is over the 200 and the price is above both, that's bullish. But sometimes as we know, as markets start to correct.

the price will go down below the fifty, but the fifty is still above the two hundred. That's a caution phase. That's a very important phase. Because what that tells you is exactly that. That's why we call it caution. Some people call it warning. It's it literally means, you know, maybe it's time to lighten up, maybe things are shifting.

Whatever, it's time for you to actually pay attention to something that maybe has been in a bullish phase for a while and now it's going no question. I mean, we could use so many classic examples of the market right now. um if we had a lot of time and I was actually doing a webinar, but essentially like off the top of my head, let's just look at semiconductors, right? So if we went SMH, which was in a bullish phase for so long where the 50 was above the 200, I also like to use the slope.

Because the higher the more uh directional the slope is up, the more the momentum and the strength of that phase is. So we had this SMH dancing sometimes on the 50, but holding it, holding it, holding it. And then WAMO in the last several weeks, it broke the 50, gave people caution, people who knew how to pay attention. Then sometimes it goes back to a bullish, you know, sometimes it just like a little story came out and it knocks out the weaker longs and it goes right back, that's fine.

If you're really a long-term trader, you may ignore that little blip, but if you're a short-term trader, it's good information. You can actually get out, go short, and go back long. But if the price starts to break down under the 200 day moving average, that's the 50 and the 200 are still Stacked is the word we use, but the prices now fail. That's actually a distribution phase. So if you go from bullish.

to caution, to distribution. That meaning is okay, cash is starting to really come out of the market. Distribution really means uh the the the money is distributing out, maybe somewhere else, but that is irrelevant for this conversation. And that's often a very good time for people to exit. And that's really when you see a lot of institutions sorry, the slamming the win it's windy here in San Francisco. That's when uh uh when you start to see institutional investors getting out.

uh of the market a lot is when something breaks the two hundred day moving average. So then the really question is is how long period that happens, but eventually when the fifty if it lasts for a while, the fifty starts to break down under the two hundred, that's the classic death cross. And if the price is still underneath that, that's when we enter a bare fit.

So that's the n that that's going from the bullish to the bearish. But I want to take a breath here so you could say something. So it's not just me talking and then we can go to

All right. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Okay, th thanks. So so in that in that case then if you are say a long only trader, maybe you only buy stocks and then You don't short them. Uh how how would those types of traders adjust the way they're trading in those um three phases that you mentioned there?

Well, there's two ways they can adjust. Number one is they could obviously go to cash during those periods and or wait for some kind of a correction because no matter what phase you're in, you're always going to get short covering rallies.

in a down market. And those short recovering rallies, and I know you wanted to talk about reversals and things like that. There are other signs to look for it, even if it hasn't cleared the moving average. But very, very often you'll get a move uh at oversold condition, those moving averages become like a magnet.

And you will get a rally right up, back up to that moving average. And so if you like to go long, you might catch that move. But if it doesn't clear back over the moving average, that's it. Your move is over and you get out. That's one way. The other way to make money, uh, if you're a long-only type trader, is to find something that's doing the opposite. You know, one man's trash is another man's treasure. Uh, and so there's always a treasure somewhere in the market.

For me as a commodities trader, uh, not so much this year, although unless you're in the metals, but for the last couple of years, it's been so much fun to find commodities that were really trash. that were starting to run while other things were selling off. Um and so you just have to if once you once you understand how to look for these phases and you can scan for them and we have tools for that too, by the way. You know, Market's been around for a while, so we we got it all.

Uh we have uh a a whole system where it tells you when something is changing phases. So you can see, oh wow, this just went from a bearish phase. to a recuperation phase and we can get to that. So you can find those things and ignore the things that are selling off. Yeah. Yeah. So so earlier you said um you look you like to look for trades when there's a change in the phase.

Do you find that um uh the I think you said the caution phase was after the the the bull phase? Yeah. Do you find a lot of retracements happen in that caution area or is that just something you should avoid? You know, when you look at the wheel of the phases, it's not it goes in clockwise fashion, but that doesn't mean the market goes in a clockwise fashion.

Wouldn't that be wonderful if it just, you know, oh well, here's the cycle. It goes from bullish, caution, distribution, bearish, recuperation, accumulation, back. No, you often get jumped. So there's a couple of things I've really discovered about that. Number one is yeah, you get these fake face changes. Something goes into caution and like I said, it could be something simple like, I don't know, some news story came out, a downgrade or whatever, if it's a stock.

And then it it sells off quickly because you always have weaker lawns in the market. You always have people who buy the top. Yeah. So when you get a lot of people or that sentiment where, you know, it's extreme bullishness, you know that's not going to sustain. So you might get a fake out. And that can go back to bullish at some point. I mean I I if I had a chart ingrained in my head where we could look at that example, it would be easier. But yes, you can get the fake ass. But here's the thing.

This is what I've discovered. Is if you are in a bullish phase and it goes caution, bullish, caution, bullish, caution, bullish, caution. Generally, what that tells you is A, it's choppy, but B, it's choppy because something bigger is coming. Either it's signaling the top, but you still have those diehard bulls coming in there.

Or it's been, you know, shaking out, shaking out, shaking out, and then the news new good news piece will come out, like an earnings, let's say, and it's gonna shoot right back into make new high. It just means you don't know exactly what, but it's maybe time to pay attention'cause it's telling you that this choppy action is gonna lead to something probably with a little more follow through.

Yeah, okay. Yeah, that makes sense. So um uh thanks for explaining that. So what about then the short side or the bearish uh phases? Oh well, okay. So my the bearish phases I I say I like. I mean obviously nobody really likes a bear market. But if I'm looking at individual instruments, I pay a lot of attention to things that have been in bearish phases for a very long time.

I mean, occasionally you just get a company that's just, you know, gone to shit and, you know, it's been a bearish phase because it's probably gonna go out of business. But not most things and particularly not commodities. We know commodities Then you're never gonna not need natural I shouldn't say never. I mean obviously technology they say will one day replace everything, but for now

You never you you you can assume that raw materials and bare faces will eventually come back. For whatever reason, there's a host of reason. This is what I'm really a student of after being a commodities trader for so long. You know, those reasons could be geopolitical, it could be weather related, it could be um the producers basically stopped producing because the prices were so cheap and then there's a supply chain issue, you know, on and on and on. Obviously COVID was like the textbook.

of commodities that were so hammered before and then skyrocketed because there just wasn't enough. of them when people needed them, number one and number two, was there was no way to get them, right? So so I, you know, and I I'm putting context on this because I want people to understand the phases are so important. And again, with commodities, but also with certain stocks.

Those phases mean at some point they're going to come to an end. And that's where I lick my chops. Is really my favorite phase. Is now you have. The 50 under the 200. So let's go back to our visual in our mind. The 50-day moving average or the 50 weekly is below the 200. Price has been below. Slope is down.

And maybe you're going to start to see the 50-day moving average now getting closer to 200. Maybe you're going to start to see that negative slope flatten a little. And the 50-day moving average slope is always going to happen before a 200-day. Because it's fifty days as opposed to 200, so things happen faster, right? So if that 50 starts to flatten out and the price

starts to get up above that 50, and I like to look for like a two-day confirmation. I'm excited. That is the recovery or the recuperation phase. So what that tells me is that it's very, very more than likely that the instrument that you're trading has bottomed out. You know, so when you hear people talking about this is bottomed out, I always wonder what are they basing that on. And if it's I immediately will go and look at the phase. That's my absolute favorite time to put on a position.

Because Once people get wind of something bottoming out, you're already in and now the masses come in. So while everybody else is figuring it out, you're sitting there collecting the money, as they say. Number one. And number two, if you're wrong and it happens, you know right away that, oh, it was a fake out, a little short covering rally or what have you, and it breaks back down under the fifty, you just get out and walk away. Now let's assume, Andrew, that you're right. And now the 50.

The price is above the 50, but the 200 is still above the 50, right? Because It's bottomed out, but it hasn't gotten anywhere near a bullish phase yet. There's a there's a middle phase after recovery, there is an accumulation phase. And that is when now the fifty's still below the two hundred, but the price pops over. excuse me, over the 200-day moving average. Now you know just like those institutional sellers under a 200, institutional buyers are coming in over the 200.

And you've already been long from a recuperation phase, so you're feeling pretty good. And you may even add now on that accumulation phase because you're getting another surge, opposite of distribution, accumulation of cash coming in. And then sometimes that can just be the end of it and it breaks down again and that's the end, but you've had a nice move. And if you're gonna find something really, really great that has bottomed.

then eventually that 50 day moving average is going to continue to move up closer to the 200 and you'll get the opposite of a death cross. You get the golden cross. And now you're back into a bullish phase.

So simple the way you explained it. It is simple! Yeah. I think the um y you raise a good point there about um trying to uh pick bottoms I guess and and there can be um uh false signals I guess. I assume you don't just buy because of the moving averages and and the price. um across in in the direction. So are there other clues that you're looking for to try and determine if it's actually like a um a genuine bottom or maybe uh just a temporary?

Well, I ha th this is a very good question because this is where my um I it w we created excuse me. We created the real motion indicator, which is a momentum indicator at market gauge years and years ago. But I was a little

slow on the uptick to figure out how important it was because as a floor trader, you didn't have to think about momentum. It was you could see it, you could feel it, you could hear it, you could taste it, right? You know, you could smell it. We don't have to go there. So um So so um I missed

So I might buy something and then but the momentum wasn't there. Now some people will look at volume, some people will look at MACD. You know, these are some people are mean reversion traders. This is all good. Um but I like when everything when all the boxes are checked. So here's where the boxes get checked for me. Number one is I like to look for some kind of a blow-off, right? So a blow-off bottom. So a blow-off bottom would be, you know, like two

volume has surged. And it's almost like like everybody and their brother now is out of that particular instrument or has actually be turned bearish. And then you see that reversal bottom happen. But that's one thing and then then you're gonna see the mean reversion people coming out saying there was a mean reversion.

But if we see a long period of consolidation, I'm okay with that too, as long as now I see it on my momentum indicator. So my mom I have to see that the momentum has also bottomed out or even better, is showing a bullish divergence to the price. Okay, so what do I mean by that? In the brilliance of Jeff and Keith who created this instrument, they use a fifty and the two hundred day moving average for momentum as well, with a series of dots.

And if the 50, if those dots cross the 50 or the 50 crosses over the 200 while we're in this bear phase, it gives you a aha moment that the momentum is shifting. And then you just then you look for the price confirmation. And if you have the price confirmation along with the momentum bullish divergence, sometimes price happens before momentum, sometimes momentum happens before price. But if they're both i it if if they both confirm each other. It's a very high probability trade to take.

Right. Okay. And do you use the exact same logic for a top or do you is there some nuance to that? Uh uh top like okay, here's another classic example. So while everybody was talking about SPY lately, once it was getting over fifty six hundred, oh, it's going to six thousand, it's going to six thousand. It hadn't broken down under any major moving averages yet because obviously the SPY was so up, but the momentum indicator.

It could the 50 was above the 200 in the momentum indicator, but the dots could not get through the 50 while the SPY was soaring. So even if you missed the last, you know, I don't know, fifty dollars of the spy move up, because I saw that the momentum was way more. And once I saw the momentum was waning, there was no reason for me to stop buying anything at you know, because I know we were nearing the top.

That could work. Sometimes you though you'll see a mean reversion to the sell side soon, like the momentum is breaking down, the price is sitting right on the 50, then the price breaks down on the 50, and that's a good short or at least a signal to get out.

Right, okay. Do you only ever look at Um technical indicators or do you also um do you ever take into account like macroeconomic factors as well? Absolutely. I'm all about the macro. Um, you know, it's interesting. I've been you know, the years I spent on the floor, um there were certain macro environments that you knew. I mean, I was I was really, really, really lucky because I got to learn how to trade on the floor during the tremendous inflation period. And then the ensuing recession.

And then the economic growth where commodities kind of started to filter out and now we were looking at you know, SPX and and and futures of the of the uh S P five hundred and the Dow. So I could see the news and how it fit. Do I believe that the technicals perceive the fundamentals? Absolutely. But do I know that I can sniff out when the fundamentals or the macro picture is changing?

just by mere logic and obviously being old enough to have a lot of life experience. Yes. So that's why, you know, you asked you mentioned I was on the news a lot, because I'm really good at saying Oh let me think of a more recent example of uh well, right before COVID, I mean it was almost scary. I was going on and and and there were I was there was even articles that I was being interviewed for.

where people say I said the commodities to ratio, um, commodities to equities ratio was unsustainable, historic, hundred-year low. It was on and something was going to happen, something that was going to create chaos.

for the commodities to go up and the equities to go down and then voila COVID. Now, would I have ever guessed COVID? Of course not, not in a million years. But now if we if we fast forward, the fact that you can see Countries going more anti global, civil unrest in countries, um, you know, the the the tremendous trilli thirty five trillion dollars of debt the US has, you know, and on and on and on, the political divide. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this might create

some impact somewhere in the market. And then my experience will tell me, oh, this is a good time to look at gold. This is a good time to, you know, s tech was really doing well during some tro during COVID, obviously, because everybody was home. You know it becomes more instinctive. than being a macroeconomic expert. I it's unnecessary by the way, uh economists and sorry if I offend any economists are usually the worst traders. Because they don't have they have no timing skills whatsoever.

Right, okay. So do you think um you know a lot of your you get this kind of uh I guess thesis about macroeconomic where it could be going and then you look at charts to try and confirm that is that Sort of the approach you're talking about? Yeah, like when I wrote when I I every year I write an outlook for the year and I include my macroeconomic picture for the year.

So coming into this year, you know, you could see the patterns of what was going on. I mean, we still had the Russia-Ukraine situation at that point. Um, coming in, you could see you knew this was gonna be an election year. Um, but I could also see the populism trend and then you start thinking, okay, what are these trends going to do for the market? You know, I'm not interested in in in just talking uh politics or geopolitics.

I for that I'm always interested in what what are the signs that it's actually growing and becoming a problem or resolving and becoming a less of a problem that we see the signs in the market. So I kind of mix it up. And sometimes all I have to do is look at the market, and then I just have to do research and see what's going on to make why is gold going up so much?

I mean, there's gotta be some reason, right? So I anticipated gold was gonna go up because I could see that there was more chaos happening throughout the world. And then countries that were pissed off at the US because of things being very expensive and price and dollars would possibly want to try to get more into gold as a reserve currency, which is happening, not bricks, but you know, kind of like China accumulating, selling our treasuries.

You know, these are the kinds of things here where it's almost like, Oh, gold looks like it can go up technically. Here are the reasons why. And then when it's in, I sound like a genius when I talk about, well yeah, China's been accumulating because they're selling treasuries because You know, right now our tariffs are kill they they hate us. Maybe. You know what I mean? It's a dance. It's a dance.

Yeah. I think um, you know, some of those uh macroeconomic uh factors you just mentioned there um also come from experience or seeing similar things that have happened in the past.

and, you know, you've you've been in the industry for a very long time and you've got a lot of experience. Is there anything you've seen historically that is kind of uh parallels to what what we're seeing today? And Yeah. Well, I came into this year thinking that we might see a super cycle of commodities'cause the seventies looked very similar to what we've seen since COVID. Of course everything is accelerated and time and speed of everything has just gone crazy.

So what happened in ten years happens in three years now. But um and you know, social media, electronic trading, exposure to trading, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, all of that are the reasons. But I thought, you know, because oil was such a uh fire a pa powder keg in the seventies after the uh war, Yum Kippur wars and then uh the oil embargo.

And then the price of oil went crazy. And then they weren't sending oil here to this country. And then um, you know, we could we could you started to see inflation was starting to peak up. And I thought maybe we were gonna get a second wave of that. As we were getting into 2024, 2025, and even maybe ending in 2026. And that's not happening yet. But I have my eyes out there. I'm certainly not wishing for it by the way. And I this is not a situation where I wanna be right because it would be

uh very damaging on many levels. I mean, not to mention obviously war being damaging and horrible thing. But But I'm still not a hundred percent convinced. And so when I look at the seventies and the CPI and I look at now in the CPI, we had that big spike of CPI in seventy-five. We had that big spike of CPI in twenty twenty-one. It went all the way down by 1977, back down into around the two, two and a half percent. Now we have this big drop here in 2024 down to about two and a half percent.

And then by the time we got into the end of 78, 79, things went crazy again. So I'm not a hundred percent sure. that we beaten inflation because what we're seeing all this stuff going on all over the place. I mean, look at what happened today, you know, where the the Middle East situation is totally not resolved.

And the more the West gets involved with these things, and this is not a an opinion, this is just a fact, you know, the more the uh Russia and China and the Saudis and you know, they start to get like a how can we hurt the US. So it may not necessarily be the classic ways that we saw in the seventies with oil embargo, because we have oil now. That's but it could be more currency related, it could be more cyber attack related, it could be

More selling treasuries and not buying our treasuries. I mean, there are so many things that could drive inflation at a time when there are cracks. the debt being one of them, government spending being another, and of course, not to mention the geopolitical stuff, and then the freight rates, which continue to go up, not down. So it's kind of like

We're at this weird place right now where everybody's like, ah, you can relax, inflation's over. And I still have that chart in my head, thinking, everybody got pretty complacent in 78. And then whammo. So we don't know. We don't know yet.

Yeah, it's it's an interesting period of time to see how all these uh things unfold, I guess. So um Uh one question uh I wanted to ask you before we start wrapping up for today is kind of along the lines of some of those risks that you just mentioned there. Um, you know, we've we've all heard the stats about you know how m n ninety percent of traders fail or whatever the the number is, I I don't know, but very high failure rate in the industry. So um to have

Someone of your level of expertise and and length of success is kind of out of the norm when you look at the st statistically. So what do you think are some of the keys that have really helped you to, I guess, survive in the industry long term? Well, I don't trade with my emotions. That doesn't mean I don't have emotions when I trade. I mean I'm say I get happy when I'm making money and I get like when I'm not.

But that's not what drives the trade when I'm in the trade and when I recognize that bubbling up I'm old enough and been in this business long enough where I can step back and kind of review why am I in this trade. And if I still like all the reasons I'm in the trade from when I got in, then I calm down. And that lack of emotion really helps. I mean I don't have FOMO. That's the other emotion that

I think I've seen a lot of people lose so much money. You know, I I I I hate to tell the story because I love this man so dearly, but the guy who uh is my um manicurist. I mean, he told me two weeks ago, I got into NVIDIA, I got into Apple, I got into Amazon, I got into Google, and I'm like, That's the top, you know, that's the top. So I think that the other longevity is understanding that the public, the herd mentality.

is really great when you're in first, but it's not something you want to follow when the herd mentality keeps growing because generally that means They're wrong. The public is wrong, just like you said before. So to motion is a huge part of it. I think that I am I really understand megatrends, you know, I can see.

the things that will change society, whether it's in a very profound way, like AI, for example, or in not such a profound way like improved gaming or 3D printing or, you know, something like this. once I have I see where things are trending or even in fashion trending or, you know, environmental trending or however it is, again, no opinion on whether I like it or don't like it. It's just I can see it happening. And I can get into those things.

and keep the emotions in check and be smart about it. You know, that that's been a real key for me. A a real key for me. So here's a and I'll end with this. I I I wrote an article today about Rivian. And I've been kind of uh thinking about Rivian longer term. So Rivian's trading at like sixteen dollars a share and Tesla's trading like two hundred and twenty dollars a share.

And we know that Tesla is more than just a car company. Obviously software packages and their self driving cars will be, you know, the thing of the future and all of that. But Still, that's a huge disparity, and I'm starting to see more and more Rubians around. And in this in the first quarter, they actually did very, very well in terms of deliveries, even though the stock drops.

Um, and so I'm watching the fundamentals, but I'm also I'm seeing a consumer instinct there. But ultimately with Rivian, I have to have the technical signal and I have to know what my risk is. And at some point, and even Zax will say this. Rivian could be in twenty twenty six a hundred dollar stock. because they will figure out to make a sedan. They've already got one as a prototype. They will reduce the cost of their cars because obviously not everybody can afford an eighty thousand dollar car.

They will uh, you know, the EV space, even though it's take quite a hit this year, will figure it out. And maybe that's Elon's great achievement is that he actually helps with the infrastructure of it all.

So that's a trend, right? So instead of just like getting long for a solar, you know, because that that's been so fluctuating all around, I'll pick that company because I do believe it's the number two EV in the United States. And if we have tariffs, then ri that could be a very good boon for Rivian and both candidates are talking Tariff. Yeah. And and we know Europe already implemented EV tariffs with China. So, you know, if I put that all together in my head.

That doesn't mean I'm already long and moving like today, but it means that that will be a position I will establish when I think either a momentum has shown me the way. The risk isn't too bad. And I can see now that those phases are in gear. And I may even look at a weekly phase as opposed to a daily phase, because I want to be longer term. And that's how that's how I that's how I operate. So if I see little dips here and there, I will not be that concerned.

Hm. Yeah. Okay. Well, thank you very much for that, Mish. That's a really nice way to end our discussion today. So um if people wanted to get in touch with you or learn more from you, where can they go? Well, uh, first of all, I am very active on X.

I mean I you know, people say to me, Well, if you're that good and you're that smart and you've carried that long and you're that you know, you've done so well. I mean, you could see I have a nice room behind me, I've collected a lot of art, we've lived a great lifestyle. Then why do you want to teach my sorry ass? I mean, really, I literally got in that question. So

And don't forget, I started out life as a teacher. I also have such compassion for people. I hate to see people blow up. I s I hated it on the floor. And I hate it when I see it on X and I hate that people follow people that don't really know what they're doing. This is this is to me a d um

I have the time to do it, so I'm happy to do it. I know that's a long answer to your question, but I really think it's important that that there are many people like me, by the way. I'm not unique. There are so many people and I can rattle off a few names just off the top of my head.

who do spend time trying to help people legitimately, even though they themselves are very successful. You know, maybe I'll get to an age at some point where I'm like, oh, I just want to travel and forget social media, but I'm not there yet. So Market Minute is my X handle. Market Gauge is our website as you have shown up there on your screen. And uh you my daily, Mish's Market Minute Daily, like I said, I just wrote the one on Rivian. I often put my ideas there. And if you go to the media page,

All my media hits are there, including this podcast that we did today. Um, and uh it's not too hard to find me. I'm on LinkedIn, I'm on Instagram, I'm on Fa I'm all over the place. So I'm everywhere. Just Google me. Yeah, that's right. And what I might actually do, um, Mish, is I'll have a chat to you offline and see if I can get some links to

uh some of the things you mentioned today because you I think you said something about a wheel. I don't know if that's publicly available or not. And um I'll also put some links to some of the YouTube videos which I watched a view which I think would be helpful for everyone else. So if you're listening to this uh replay

then uh just look uh in the description box below the video on YouTube and I'll have some links to some of Mish's stuff and I'll include her um her other channels as well. So make that easy um for you to find Mish if you don't like to search. Um so yeah, thanks a lot for the discussion today. Misha really enjoyed it. Uh went by so fast, I can't believe it's over already. Uh any closing thoughts before we wrap up?

Well it's summer, so just respect the fact that you're gonna get a lot of opinions about a massive correction uh or a massive rally. I mean there's both sides. So I would just say that if really if you want to Um, really stay in this game. The best thing for you to do right is to try to become an expert in one thing. You can grow from there, but it's always good to pick one thing and say, I'm until I really mastered this.

Then I will move on. And that's a really good way to start. I was lucky I mastered day trading of a commodity that I happened to be in the pit in. But that has been my foundation. And without that, I would never be sitting here talking to you today. Excellent. That's like a mic drop moment. So thank you very much for sharing that. What a way to end the show. Uh thanks for joining me today and thanks everyone for watching the replay and all the best.

Thank you so much, Andrew, and thank you, viewers. Marketing is hard. But I'll tell you a little secret. It doesn't have to be. Let me point something out. You're listening to a podcast right now and it's great. You love the host, you seek it out and download it. You listen to it while driving, working out, cooking, even going to the bathroom. Podcasts are a pretty close companion. And this is a podcast ad. Did I get your attention?

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